Typhoon Tip

Yeah no. This thing would completely overwhelm any of those kinds of factors

What I just saw took my breath away

I wouldn’t discount small giga motions as mere ignorable noise in this sort of delicate set up. Could be 1” of silver or 10” of blue. Very tight

For some reason when I look at this facade I hear a banjo riff running down a chromatic scale ...i.e., "Deliverance"

bingo - I live alone though. I'm not sure exercise is the same option for spouses with kids...or spouses alone. Or if the 'stress' is the same. I mean is it the same for those that bounce their crap off loved ones if they don't get to bounce their loved one's heads off the wall.. Heh Kidding but it's pretty much feels like 'why be alive time' if you don't do something. You know ..humans are social critters - we love each other so much that we have to hate one another to cure it. hahaha... something like that - But, ... it offers a nice sort of soothing sense of 'foundation' - for lack of better word .. - to get that endorphin fix from a heavy workout. For some of us, joy circuitry doesn't have any other trigger points. Interesting.

Re the cold look to end out the month ... What are the EPS indexes right now? - curious. The GEFs telecon layout have actually been correcting the cooler complexion more normalized that last couple nights. Now has neutral PNA out there, as well as this +PNA here in the foreground being less largely so. Seems the operational GFS is doing exactly what I said it always f'n does ... It starts off each run cycles with handfuls of warmth it doens't get are caused by seasonal change ( a.k.a. celestial mechanics forcing it's hand) ...then, spends the next 4-6 days worth of time intervals figuring out how to scrub the warm out of the run so that it can get back to NCEP modeler's [ apparent ...] belief that it's always November 12th every day of the year. The Euro is obscene for a different set of reasons... that - I suspect - is related to it's defaulting everything and anything it is handling at D4 and then sees it through a magnification out in time. I just don't see 504 height cores over JB on May 1 as very likely ...

I don't buy it either... That appears to be over-wrought and almost inorganic looking so late in the season. I lean away from that 13 isohypsotic flow maelstrom of the GFS on D12 ... we'll see

I came to find over the years that salt 'cooked' into a meal does little to satisfy the savory sensation of taste when serving the meal. Same salt content when cooked seems not to sensate at time of ingestion. Not sure why that is.. perhaps partial chemical bonding ... Maybe just dilution in general. I can make up SciFi to explain but I don't know why that is. You can take a fraction of the seasoning of the food preparation part, particularly and specifically if the prep means heating and actually cooking, ... and applicate that fraction in salt mass to the served meal at fork-point and the savoriness is much more coherent to the taste sensation. I am not a dietary physician' or whatever titles the pathway of food life-style to subsequent health effects ...etc, but it seems intuitive to me that if one is salt sensitive for whatever reason... eating less "isolated" salt seasoning would probably be better - and... timing the application of salt to food stocks might help there some. Course ...if one is sodium sensitive ...and they eat processed foods - you get what you get. Processed food like uses sodium as binder to get shapes and sizes ...haha... What I'm mentioning only matters for food prep, and more so for/if ingredients are sodium organic and one hates bland taste.

Mm... can't speak for Celtic's "beat writers" ... but ESPN's article does not intimate nearly as dourly as that statement - not even close really. "Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum said Tuesday night that he is still dealing with the after-effects of contracting for COVID-19 three months ago and has been using an inhaler before games as a means to combat them. ..." https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/31254061/boston-celtics-jayson-tatum-fighting-covid-19-effects-close-100-percent-performance-picks-up That bold is an entirely different frame-up compared to "..Inhaler full time " What ESPN talks about is an accelerator for oxygen ...which isn't that uncommon for high physical pro sports for one; but secondly, makes it clear that this is along a curve of improvement too. Heh, they way those beat writers put it ... leaves the reader thinking the other way - this is exactly what I was talking about in how media is acting irresponsible. No one know what's real - Just sayn' - not sure which source is right

Not sure how pervasive it is ...but the FOUS grid ( NAM ) has two consecutive time intervals of mid 30's kt BL flow coming into Logan in this thing. That's not trivial wind there -

same at the other end

Yup ... but was that March? shit - couldn't remember when exactly, but I cited this exact one ... thinking it was back in February. But I elaborated the NAM tends to a W-N bias/amplitude beyond 48 hours. Either attribute, both track specifics, or amplitude, could atone for the NAM being so robust, presently. So, I'm skeptical ... Will pointed out a 'tick' - let's not ignore that? not that anyone is...just sayn'... Because the NAM will do that - attempt to keep you in the game with easily ignore-able ticks, that guide you right to a destination of the only thing blue is your ballz

News agencies should be held accountable for manipulation tactics - but it is impossible to prove ... "Semantics litigation" ?? Yeeeeah - good luck! One can't really see that as having a finality in any sort of litigious or Tort-law related processes and endeavor, not one that doesn't take the 14 billion years of the known cosmos to reach any kind of squabbling settlement. Accountability? vague at best - intent does and always has resulted in compromise, with else most ending up free runners. The key is education as a black box and that has always been the case. If the audience is wiser... they don't get beguiled so readily in the first place. What it really exposes is about the audience - it's really more about 'dimming of the commoner intellectual brain.' My hypothesis: Since nature doesn't use anything it does not need ... that's why the masses lowest common denominator is back before the scientific revolution. See, there is a negative feed back of modernity where 'wherewithal' stops prudential thinking, because the latter requires energy... and nature does not do that - to wit and which, we are still a part. The conveniences spanning multiple generations ( despite iniquity in distribution ) make for such energy for existence at individual and whole structures, no longer as necessary for the everyday decision making. We have to keep in mind, biology is no different then any other observable 'anything' about reality - nothing in existence occurs in utter disconnect, in a vacuum unto itself - even a rock has some information and history that roots it necessarily back to some system purpose. Kind of smacks as Quantum Mechanics Principle that nothing can ultimately be truly lost... It's philosophy that - ironically ... - takes deeper intellect to see. Example, medicine and science sold us that the Appendix organ is a defunct evolutionary left over that serves no purpose ...but recent science proved that to be likely false; it does in fact have a some minor on-going usefulness in the machinery of the human gut - I just can't recall specifically what that is/was because I'm a idiot. lol... But my hypothesis is...when you soak a population in relative affluence, that tends to pacify the civility, .. breeds apathy... entitlement... "trophy cultures?" ...hello. That pacification, as we express it as a techno-orgasmic species, is consistent with nature not wasting anything - we don't continue to exhaust "thinking" energy for prudential criticism and objective cause-and-effect consequence nearly as needed, because we are in a convenience bubble. By the time this is ubiquitously known...it will be around a campfire after the holocaust in some setting like "Book Of Eli" - the irony is... the greed of big media news "cinema" is creating fake dystopia for the dumb down thumb swipers, or mouse clickers, when the real dystopia will take place because of it all.. So, it's a fascinating catch-22, that the evolutionary process that gave humanity the ability to manipulate the environment to the point of such convenience addling in modernity would ultimately become of the world... leads inexorably to it's own de-evolution - a de evolution that can defined in many ways [use the imagination].

Yeah, I wonder where the NAM is situating it's UVM core(s) with respect to thermal profiling. Crucially, UVM specifics like that? absolutely. In fact, this technically starts off as an amorphously defined southerly flow/conveyor, that pivots/'backs' around to the E ..like taking 12 to 18 hours to do that pivot. Once it does, that's when these ptypes start going blue blobbed out there over the elevation spines... ...blah blah the low ( NAM ) then dynamically assists its own cold profile and throws a parachute party. I mean ...folks need to realize ... if the cold profile of NAM worked out, it's a cotton ball snow storm where it does go over. You might hear them thump on the car tops if you turned the engine off ...heh. The old farmer's adage about the big snow flakes mean a change to rain ...fails in this case, because if you go to those big aggies ...that means you were not handed an address for the popular people party ...only to arrive there and find that the party was in fact somewhere else.

I keep thinking of this ... It's funny that this was a whopper teleconnection flagged by the GEFs some 14 days ago actually.. I remember posting several repeating iterations ( to deliver a point that I still don't know if anyone actually acknowledged despite my harangue LOL..), that there was a 'monster mid month signal.' Probably the reticence to do so centers around the unfortunate caveat also discussed re that mid April thing ... uh yeah. By then, nearing mid August sun power ... I had let it go but here we are... It's just hard to keep on things when for one, you stop caring.. .but, we are putting up 78 F days off and on waiting for some signal to materialize...when the other side is even more warmer climate as inevitable. It's not really conducive to giving a shit - Ever think of that - ? whilst we offset acceptance and sorrow stage of the winter death psychology, with a couple of blips on the EKG, we do so under the equivalence of August 24th sun. Imagine a blue bomb in discussion on any August 22nd? I've seen it be 96.4 F on August 24th and that was a cold bust because it was 22.5 C at 850 ..but of course cirrus plumes timed which is usually how the true cutting edge big heat fails in New England. ... Anyway, it's tough to argue seasonal lag when we make legitimate comparisons, huh -

I like behaviors to 'make sense' ...or at least suggest plausible explanation if reasons for behavior cannot be coherently evinced. Heh... I mean, the NAM's run variance between 12z yesterday and now ...really, I don't know which run I'm looking at if just boxing east of Utica, N of Jersey and S of Brian. That region is, other than very minor irrelevances, the same run across 5 cycles. How is that possible ? It's almost like the low already exists over Nantucket in the virtual sense - like a slot for a cog, and it wants to find it's nesting point. ...heh, symbolism but you know what mean... But seriously, go to TT and put the 32km NAM on hour 54 (06z run this recent), and click the Prev. Run button 5 times: same result inside of nuance and noise. Operational philosophy: That's weird in itself. Lol. What to do? ...I guess I'm hinting that "maybe" ( ouch) this could be a weird situation where the other models are missing some sort of dynamical feed-back and how that integrates and forces deep layer morphology. In general, there are events in history where the NAM did well... however rare that may be the case - ugh. But of those, I do distinctly recall this sort of stalwart stubborn continuity leading. Back in February ... it didn't have that... It was repositioning features run to run, and then for 3 -cycles it feigned continuity and went amped/NW between 60 and 84 hours...only to pull the rug out < 54. But that was a fun 18 hours of model-cinema, no doubt! This 12z run ...can't wait to see if it hits for 6th consecutive run, ...not just the 6th run, ...but as though it is just duplicating intervals like that. I guess for the purpose of being very concise: this is using the "behavior" of the NAM as a possible deterministic tool - but I would only suggest so because said behavior being what it is.

Short memories with the NAM ... ? Lest we forget that it hammered everyone east of the Hudson for multiple runs back in Feb, when other guidance like the UKMET was pancaked and out to sea with cirrus streaks. That set up did not hammer the regions. Big phantom event way too far NW - I warned the NAM does this with NW bias/amplitude beyond 48 hours back then, too ... Inevitably, it left the devoted suckers sitting alone in the cafe staring at the door, wondering if she'll show ... Seeking pros: This is different pattern-wise, however. The flow is slower around this thing, ..the wave-lengths smaller... It's a more self-determining/mechanically conserved "dynamics" storm - drilling down from above also has its deterministic headaches. The baroclinic canvas is almost non-existent in the lower troposphere at event entry, but a crucial feed of cold air ( NAM ) injects at critical timing, as the 500 mb passes underneath SNE. This induces frontogenics ..probably 850 to 600 mb range... which the NAM uses to materialize UVM ... So, upward vertical motion hydrostatically causes downward heights, and that machinery drills its way down - drawing the freezing level with it. For snow ...obviously first to the elevations ...then that looks bit like flashing over to parachutes. I can't throw that behavior away in and of itself, because I've seen that happen in early May. It may be worth it to note, these top-->down events tend not to need 32 to snow below... When height falls take place and freezing level sags deeply under the UVM regions.. the cat-paw temp is probably 40 F believe it or not. Flip to slush blats is 37.6 or something, and it's all snow at 35/36 F after dark. I must admit, it's been pretty anchored across the last 5 consecutive cycles in the NAM, with less variance than any other guidance across that span of runs. Wild speculation but maybe the slower field and shorter wave lengths, and more mechanics not already blown open at the planetary scale but conserving inward to the 'self-centered' low ( haha)... maybe this sort of circumstance et al is just more the NAM's wheelhouse. Euro was yeah ...a tad better at 500mb ...if by attitude alone. Problem is.. obviously this situation being spring marginal incarnate ... has very low tolerances for whether it's cat pawing or flips over to actual aggregates. It may seem out of left field to mention but, 1992 Dec was a wonderful example excessively narrow tolerance razor edging cat paws vs 1/4 mi vis parachutes.

Heh maybe the NAM can score a coup

Climo perfection track at mid levels. 500mb capture and stall. A pedestrian depth but upper tier proficiency in field mechanics.

It’s just straight up trying to engineer a spring blue bomb

Whenever I see this individual in post I cannot help but wonder if George001 might bear some resemblance ... J/k george

This is just a weird week ... I mean, looking at sat loops and various shit ...we are still embedded in the under carriage west motion under -NAO influence... and we're 65 to 69 with still air and sun here that feels warm really.. So what? well...it's April 13 ... when is a long fetch off the N. Atlantic while hosing out of a -NAO like normally 68 partly sunny. Yet in two days 30 F correction into stuff of dreams - ...like, really? I guess. By the way, the buds popped here... really just the last two nights. Sugar maples flushing flowerettes. These are the first canopy species to go - though some Elm too. Lawn's looking more green with some individual blades sticking up. Good time to cake 'em in damage

Welcome to marginality, huh -

You need an ideal everything ...? Not really ... 1978 Feb was not ideal for 'some' reason - just a matter of obsessive tedium by us neurotic malcontents to find it, but nothing is perfect in the Universe - LOL But ..there's time to shave a half deg in critical layers and make the difference between cat paw white rain vs 'chutes. I'd say get this to the 85th %tile or so, and then let things synergistically parlay the rest of the way. I mean ...what are one's alternative? Angst to the point of precancerous inflamation factors over that which we cannot force by hope - In more critical terms, I'm not sure the EPS mid level height falls can happen without it snowing in this profile, and it probably snows vis all the way down to blue air visibility at 34.5 F too. I bet the cat paw temperature is like 39.7 F ... blat blats on the windshields with big drops in street lamps... over to slush at 37.6. It's a classic spring top down cooling scenario and it snows above freezing ...etc...etc... when that's the deal. I almost suspect these QPF ptype charts are really not seeing that... They are just seeing where < 33 flirts with the tree tops -

Not sure what's been said/ covered re the runs and this interesting spring anomaly but ... just on an island that NAM (12z ) solution would snow prolifically for a 4-6 hour period West of 495 and N of south coast of CT, likely above QPF in that general synoptic layout/evolution it carries through. Didn't like the 00z Euro backpeddling on surface reflection ( coherence..) such that it did, but the EPS mean was impressive in the mid level height falls as that thing pass S so will to wait on the Euro oper another cycle. Otherwise, devoted thread time