Typhoon Tip

Just looking at the satellite loop and knowing about the quasi BD front down in CT/RI ... I think the larger environmental flow is still is peeling over the top of the low level wedge, and that's what we are seeing that tendency for back building out there SE NY to western CT/Mass. This air mass also appears to have moved farther S than the support. There is a gap in the pressure pattern N of the low level front - The front seems to have outpaced the momentum that put it south, I think owing to our suck-geography that loves to give cold air masses a bj ...

Prolly not? My thinking on that is that if I can get .74" in 23 minutes from a thunderstorm, I can get 3+" in a 4 hour passage by system toting along a PWAT density of 2.5" - i.e., right at the top of the climate and possible a SD beyond. But it probably wouldn't be 3" like latex paint .. it'd be 1.75 with streaks of FFwarnings

Indeed .. An aspect that I have found interesting is that the hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic heights have been unusually gapped, adding another oddity ( call it 'strangeness' ) about the hemisphere. Longer general musing: Typically, when we get 588 dm height layout, we're running 574 dm thickness contouring within a couple latitude-clicks on the equatorial side. But what I am observing are lot of 574-type depths swallowed up under 590+ to 600 dm non- hyrdo heights. Not so much out west... but E of ~ 110 or so across the vastness of the Plains, S Canada, Lakes ...MV/MA... NE so forth. I've even seen 590/566 .. Building frames for towering sky scraper heat, but only outfitting the building to the 10th floor. Simplest words, unfulfilled heat potential. It's like "playing with fire", too ( pun hopefully irritating of course). I'm not sure what is causing this, but it's no fluke. It's been happening in recent years too - just noticing it more so this year. Thing is, it's also sort of insidious because to the lay-person, we were 97/72 during the last week of June. Heights nearing 600 dm or not, who the f* cares, right? But that's an example where the hydrostratic heights were only (only, ha) 575 or so when that happened. We could have been 585. That's when the low stops at 84 at LGA/Logan in a 'refreshing' pilot light zephyr right out of their attendant urban heat islands. In today's post modernism reluctance to except CC ( in whatever fervor that still abounds...), that would set the stage for 95+ by 9. Outre donkey ballz SD stuff. I mean, there may be a limit to the amount of energy we can pack into the column at this latitude per solar insolation budget. Not sure on that. But, we do have a mechanism to potentially maximize beyond, and set those sort of tables. We need the synoptic-Pacific to send height surge between Hawaii and Frisco ... That would lower heights down the west coast. The total "Sonoran Heat Release" model starts with a +PNAP capping out west under solar max broiler, then that larger disruption arrives and ejects that thermal layer ( usually with an EML, but more specifically the 850 mb kinetic bomb is the impetus here) ... I think it is a matter of time that we send a +22.5C 850 mb lava lake toward Chi Town with zero synoptic inhibition to divert it. We see relative magnitude ejection scenarios, they don't all have the eastern isohypses layout ridge dome/scaffolding..not the favorable lower Maritime of Canada... i.e., a positive NAO orientation over the western limb of that index domain space. If that lifts the continental escape latitudes of the westerlies... you will draw that Sonoran air layer up here and that would complete the Bunsen burner. July 1911 104 F in Albany back when 594 dm was not the new 588 ? think about that - and guess what for Logan and LGA, when that happens and wind is WNW under 600 dm heights. "Hey, let me show you my dads gun"

Ventilation has swept through down here. The early morning higher resolution visible satellite loops really makes evidence how that overnight MCS that swept through laid down a pretty cool air mass and also pooled/assisted in dragging ( finally ..) that west -east lingering boundary that was southern VT/NH yesterday afternoon, S .. In fact, E and ENE trajectories, albeit light and a shallow air mass, have penetrated to N CT / N RI. And it is shallow ..I can see elevate turrets leaning and stripping off toward the NE over top, whilst these scuds and strata fragments are moving WSW underneath and lower levels. I'm guessing 3500' deep in the sounding just by eye-ballin'. Kind of interesting... albeit very want diversion. Yesterday was patients trying - particularly for me... because I was dealing with a refrigerator replacement issue, that became an all day ordeal. I swear, the appliance industry et al deliberately manufactures device cabinet space 1/4 to 1/2" wider than standard operation home dwelling door jams...deliberately. It became an eye-stingy sweaty saga of screws and parts, doors off, doors on... heavy lifting in 90/74. The coup de gras was that my A.C. ...primary for the living room and kitchen area up and decided two nights ago to suddenly stop blowing cold air. Like ...that kind of timing doesn't happen in an organic universe - that is god raping ... period. I hope that offends people too - I'm that upset about it. I woke up this morning it was 62 indescribably satisfying alleviation out side, and still 84 in my god-damn living room. People don't realize - or do... - that your actual physical house re-radiates heat back to the interior air space. Even if it shock switches out side because of this sort of whiplash BD shit... the house will take two time to drain its thermal quota out of the walls and infrastructure. The other aspect is, ...I don't even typically use A.C. because I just don't. I'm a fan guy. Stand-up fan on low 4 feet away, I can take a lot of it just chillin' on the sofa wasting life in a vapid fugue of television like all pacified Americans. But when/if conditions get extreme enough, I will turn mine on - 90/74 with heavy lifting certainly qualifies. Nope - that's when the A.C. proves the might and dependability of God-bless American industry

Claudette and now this ? We’ll see how this one goes but I still think it’s a mystery. But in a way the NAM is kind of guilty of it too. We may be exposing that the models have trouble figuring out the phase transition for systems of this nature ..these examples tend to evince that or suggested so anyway

Yup. Bingo we done told em that for days.

What’s interesting about that image is that that corpuscular like connective bullets ? those are a little super cells in there

Huh despite my protestations the 18z GFS turns around and finally sees a hot pattern out there Kevin's time. We go from this, to a hybrid TC, to a heat wave next week.

I'm not sure I understand ( Meteorologically ) what the mechanisms are these guidance are "honing in on" to maintain that type of system structure/identity/and power this far N over cold water/land interface, after already having traversed total land for some 500 miles. wtf man - no one is question how these guidance are doing that, - they are just programmed to discuss what it impacts the surface as though there is not other option? I guess that's what we've become. wholly reliant But you know, if they're right they're right... But then I have to question if that disk of wind is anywhere less than 1500 meters

Yeah ...I dunno if it'll all go down that way ( Euro ) but the GFS fights these ridges and has been all along. It's so predictable and reliably doing so, it almost smacks as though the modelers put some param in there to force it to do that. jesus - It really didn't latch onto the two heat waves in June at any point ahead enough to think it had a clue they were coming. More like slowly capitulated to them as the time neared ... finally agreeing at about D4 or 5 lead. Not terrible ..I mean where is it said the present day tech needs to be altogether accurate at D6 ha. Still it's always the last to show up - bad look. nor the interim borderline heat between the 19th and 23rd either . Last to show up .. Meanwhile, its own GEF telecon spread has a neutral positive NAO whilst the mean sags the PNA neutral negative toward D7 + so there's room there for heat. We may not get a SW/W continental extension/inject into them, but... as the heat in the latter event (June) demoed, we don't need to have +22.5 C, hyper thermally charge 850 air layers to get it memorable. The other thing is, the 2-meter Ts in the Euro have been cool relative to the 500 mb, non-hydrostatic synopsis and the 850 mb temperatures... 00z had 74 over eastern Mass under 19C and 590 heights, and the wind didn't even look like it was coming onshore - which it shouldn't be under those criteria anyway. This model carries about with its own headaches -

RT 2 was excluded - ha... course that happens by design

Maybe we can a super cell to rotated along that front/SRH boundary that's 20 mi N of rt 2

91/73 here with unadulterated sun all morning and afternoon, and now we trigger down the Mohawk ( near/W of ALB ) ...? But convection is fickle...yesterday did just fine - although the total kinematic profile may have been different. I like mid lvl lapse rates in my candy but...SPC does mention positive shear values; sometimes we can swap out ingredients and come up with the same cake

Flooding is my irresponsible douche lust for excitement aspect of Met. I don't care to be in heat or ice or snow or whatever so much. And I don't want the flood IN my basement, no... but it really is cool to look at. For some reason, the specter of play-ground slides barely sticking out of the water, with bottom limbs of bear-by sugar maples a mere 6 inches above the water level - haha.. We don't really get that around here unless it's like next to a river doing a Housatonic falls act... Which can be cool too - Some of the mill towns along the Merrimack up in Lowell and Lawerence get pretty interesting ... 2005?

I don't think it is... I think it invariably will end up SW of guidance, and take longer to return/retreat as NWS calls it. This isn't Iowa. We don't flop the back ends of BD loading back out like that. But like I also just said to Kevin, the secret is not getting the front to come that far SW but ... the front exceeding model guidance should be built in as an assumption in my experience. I don't if makes a lot of difference. You're not getting SB CAPE SE of the front either. It's a saturable marsh on either side. It's a matter of whether DPs and low LCL type shit maybe but... this is just a piece of shit ordeal I'd rather it not f-up Friday but oh well... Heat may return next week - different topic.

Yeah I get it... I know they are saying that bold ( abv ) "99% of these over rollout more than guidance, and take 12 hours longer than said to recover - this lesson is relearned 99% of the times, and is interesting forgotten...with the same percentage of wisdom loss." It almost strikes me as though the author of NWS' statement is less privy or experienced with the crushing defeat these boundaries overwhelmingly hand human assessment on 'boundaries surging' back through cold dense air. They always win in this debate. The geography of a boundary wall, like the Berks, has a counter pulling force from the NE that pulls the air mass SW because of this. Once that is jammed in...it ain't leaving like NWS seems to ease in thier verbal illustration further above. See those arrows in this annotation are there always? It's an implied restoring for - a non-linear mechanical forcing that when the flow nears constructively, it gets a momentum "goose" that the models seem a little lax on anticipating that forcing - so they rush these return flows back .... The best option is to not have the cool front get that far S-SW in the first place - but that is different. What they are suggesting is the front gets that far SW, then retreats?? Good luck. Same deal different devil

It's just that 99% of these over rollout more than guidance, and take 12 hours longer than said to recover - this lesson is relearned 99% of the times, and is interesting forgotten...with the same percentage of wisdom loss. I realize they are no fun. Because they make us "feel" like we have been excluded from the party by an ugly cop - but... we want our winters. If we didn't get the former, we probably wouldn't cash in on barrier jets/damming and icing interesting ordeals, snow holding on longer this and that. Anyway, I'm talking NE of BAF/CEF ... but because of above, I wouldn't rule out more of CT getting stuck behind the cool side of the cop

To me, tomorrow has a 2000 foot deep cool marine NE flow undercutting BD look to it.

Hypothesizing ? Perhaps a pulsed restoration of the synoptic barometric pressure. The convection from BAF to N NJ last suppressed the environmental/synoptic WSW wind considerable. In fact, when that was percolating SW of here ( N-central Mass) our winds went dead from 4pm to about 7 .. Then, we had some modest gusting kick up for an hour before night fall, but sooner rather than later decoupled and that returned us to a calmer state again. I suspect as the last of the activity decayed SE and diminished/exited seawards, the flow 'hooked' back around and came through as a bit of 'isallobaric' pulse.

The problem is that being where we are in relation to the perennial hemispheric base-line circulation, we tend to more aggressive returns into the deeper trough passages, with the westerlies smashed farther W-S. Out in the Plains ...granted more so S than N, both have a tendency to shallower trough passages with the westerlies and attending warm frontal/bookend cool boundaries able to roll back sometimes within the same diurnal cycle. This year's strange. We have height variances locally ( ORD-BOS-NS ) oscillating more so between a shallower variance.. particularly in the non-hydrostatic heights, this can be seen. 576 to 588 ...save for last weeks weird two day trough plunge - but I suspect/maintain that was actually a fluke down stream of a Pac NWS 1:200 years oddity - which given CC may mean we've gone over a threshold where that has a much quicker return rate than 1:200 ..but that's a digression for a different time. Anyway, the shallower transition between warm and cool episodes ...stretched more longitudinal, is lengthening the stay in these sequences/lead-side convection scenarios. Interesting.

It's rare to get back-to-back severe risk scenarios in our region. It is what it is - if the set up is there, which this is, ... I think it is interesting that being rare as it is, this is the second time this season that this has successfully become so. Two days of it -

The Euro's evolution between NE Georgia and NJ doesn't make a lot of theoretical sense. It not only maintains a tropical nucleus it even intensifies it through the upper 980 mbs - how? why? It may be that it is tapping into the synoptic mechanics and sort of hybridizing the cyclone with both, somehow utilizing both kinematic forcing - It'll be interesting to see if a 987 mb low situates thru the NY BIte at 60 hours. It's weird optics because the previous charts has it weaker, then ...suddenly it is stronger as it nears "cold water" - hello? There really isn't much in the way if at all, supportive OHC in that region. If this circulation was spreading out and structurally showing signs of transitioning - I dunno. Between this model's in-general performance blindness wrt TC initiation, then later on it sells us these idiosyncrasies, I think that organization has work to do. The GFS, despite its own distractions, would fit better with theory and practice. This thing should be absorbing into the baroclinic tapestry as a smear up along the M/A given that trajectory and longevity over land - not being superbly structured coming in isn't helping either.

So I guess this is a hurricane … again

There’s ways around that

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