Typhoon Tip

wow, no kidding... cleared here substantially over the last hour and we bounced from 76 to 85 at these home stations and it feels every bit real out there, too- 90 is doable ..but 89/72 is gets the point across either way.

That'd be funny, too - like the same thing that usual screws us finds a weird idiosyncratic means to do the opposite. Talks about turning chicken shit into chicken salad. But this situ has changed since we typed earlier - par for the convective course, as it's also a game of observation and now-headaching the ordeal. The skies really opened up to just fractal cu and heat. It's jumped from 76 to 86 here in the last 1.5 hours of this clearing arrival - I mentioned that in the July thread that this type of air mass was sort of spring loaded like that, and that 10 minutes of sun can bounce degrees. Anyway, 90 is plausible despite losing dawn to 10 am in murk skies. That changes the map a little as far in inhibition. TCU and glaciation is now evidence more in western NY but racing east along that axis we mentioned and even N of there a little. I bet a we get a MD/ watch here

I sense an gray area fomenting slowly in interpretation wrt to human rights/constitution, when it comes to private vs public access and this mask imposition. There are many private establishments that are requiring masks around this borderline rural township area of Littleton to Ayer Mass, while the public thoroughfares of centroid demographics and/or larger market venues in general, are not. I walked headlong in blithe into a Hunter Appliance store as recent as last week and was knee-jerk excoriated, "Sir sir ... SIR!" Oh my god oh my god oh my god... by two masked-impugn-ammo wielding gun load germaphobes ... toeing the line for their "..Boss's insistence..." as the guy espoused. Jesus, calm the f* down. I mean I was the only potential client in the place, and judging by the pall of soothing factory smells hanging in the stuffy air, probably the first one in days I'm guessing and I got that reaction? They sat with headsets, imprisoned inside a plexiglass enclosure that was riveted - actual rivets at the seams - together to form a cubical. This sucker looked hermetically sealed at a glance, an island out amidst what I must assume was a show room modeling contaminated household appliances. I mean, non-confrontation but the whole thing to me is both stupid and questions the 'rights' of individuals vs mask imposition. It does, because part of rights are established by what is right and wrong - and that setting.... IS F*C*I*G WRONG, but an asshole's paranoid stupidity and lording power over his business owership - I guess the best deterrent will be that people stop shopping at his establishment - guaranteed this jaggov will suddenly see through a nimrod's morass of fear, relaxing posture when money becomes automagically more urgent than a disease - lol. It's all hypocrisy and bullshit. Fine, it's not that big of a deal to me to be inconvenienced for 10 minutes while I pick out a refrigerator. Your establishment - you set the rules. But, that doesn't allow you to prevent other ethnicities and races, does it. Mm. interesting - what's the difference. You don't know if that person has a disease, you only have fear and stereotypes. Well, that's racism incarnate- just because we point it at a new color, the mechanics are the same. You're making an assumption to justify a exclusionary practices. Eventually, liberals will start screaming about this - prediction.

Mm... I actually don't think that is the problem with today. Judging by sat trends, we should get a some good insolation periods mid afternoon. I think premature detonation out in NYS may be a the issue for us. Like I was saying, there appears to be a bit of "zygote" convection axis already percolating out there astride I-90; that morning trend may set the table and it's already S of the northern edge of SPCs hashing. Then, looking at the 500 mb height lines and geostrophic wind direction, those cells should move S of due E - this latter aspect tends to not end big, with less N-E end of the Pike. They'll turn right - more right of the guidance too ... sending anvil spooge over us... I'm sure this doesn't happen every time. But, after 30 years of suffering the vicissitudes of convection outlooks in SNE, the first order of business here is 'what can go wrong' will - particularly if you neglected to look for it haha

For those that want the warm afternoon it'll likely get here. There's ample clearing punching E immediately aft this last lone decaying MCS remnant as it swaths down Rt 2, presently. Skies on hi res vis loop look to have cleared out over western MA/S VT and this is punching E at with rapidity - probably 20 minutes from Middlesex Co ranging to an hr .. hr/2 farther E. I can see the blue on the west NW horizon now. Temps will responds quickly in this air mass. It is not yesterday ... we are 18C at 850 mb and when the sun kisses the earth - should that in fact happen - we're apt to witness some 5 to 6 deg temp/hr explosive spanning 2 hours, then we'll play the afternoon by ear with convection. That early nocturnal activity and subsequent clouds were not well handled, no - NAM ( not sure about other meso guidance but curious... didn't check them ) missed the nocturnal complex that set up a morning of debris and remnant light right packets. In fact, it had <50% cloud level RH in recent grids - wrong. Truth be told, when pulses of light through the window and their ensuing resonances pulled me out of slumber, the thought passed through my mind, there goes the higher side of the heat. May still make 86/72 though

My experience in this part of the country is that the morning trends often dictate how the day's convection will tend to play-out. "Recovery" inside a diurnal time span is only so-so around here; not like over the Plains, with morning MCS and afternoon super cells - there are too many complex 'fuzzy' limiting factors to list here; it just is what it is. In this case, there is a line of morning TCU extending astride I-90 in NY S. It appears that is along that 700 mb jetlet SPC was outlining in their morning update ( would seem to fit an explanation for that ..). That feature probably goes on to demarcate the glaciation fan out axis. This may choke off activity N of there once that happens. The cells will tend to then slip S of a W-E motion, and that may do it for E - N of CEF-ORH (~) as a light rain anvil positive return on a hashed severe threat typology. Lol, I actually have sympathy for SPC. I mean people have died from stove pipe, urban canal boring twisters before. And while tremendous strides in science and tech have provided quantifiable positive returns in advanced risk planning, to in the moment detection, out in the Plains, our region continues to elude those techniques. Yet, they happen here. Even though rarely, one does manage to cut through the morass of reasons to fail to actually occur - so they have to hash. But for us, it is an exercise in destructive interferences - those that seem to tag-team. That time 'too many clouds,' this time, 'cells dove right of modeling and ended it early,' some other time, a SSW by SSW by SW wind was quantum therms too cool for just a SSW by SW .. It's amazing that 1953, Great Barrington's, and Monson's ever happen at all.

Euro tried to do that earlier this last June with Claudet...also traversing some 800 mi of land post a landfall while selling it as a strong TC almost upon emerging on the Del Marv and keeping it that way over the cold side of any warm water astride NJ... nope. It did deepen some when it came off the VA Capes but it's trajectory was flatter and attained better proximity to the Gulf Stream then that thing there. That's over 59 F water off the Cape and is strengthening in the intervals lead that depiction - nah...

Just based purely on 30 years of this pointless distraction ... that experience for some reason doesn't like the look of hashes that squeeze the N edge from slgt to nothing over a bike ride's distance along a straight west to east axis -

Dog day pattern if you remove the GFS speed bias ... basically slow moving low amplitude waves that have weak CAA and modest WAA defining their transport media - should be modestly above normal after the Tue/Wed 'faux' heat wave. although i suspect this will be like the 19th thru 23rd of June, where it's 88.9 at all ASOS but 91.2 over everyone's driveway, parking lots and thoroughfares them two days .. 'maybe' Thur makes the cut. These huge ridge heat dome phenomenon have not had that much longevity.. It is interesting that they are not defining in the seasonal scope - more like the oscillatory nature between those and offsetting cooler periods is the distinction. Not sure what that means, other than weird - California's interior Central Valley looks doomed again D5-8 ...then the flow out there and here looks flat under hemispheric +decimals SD canvased positive geopotential medium. like this oscillatory behavior wants to diminish toward more typical summer entropy

18z NAM puts up a 95 supporting atmosphere at 18z Tuesday for interior/metrowest

I know I never seen nothin like that with no outs

Epic play at the plate to maybe save this game wow - Onto the 11th ... Oakland leaves ‘em loaded too.

They were both an example of synergistic feedbacks.

Heh Watching the Red Sox with that glowing yellow brilliant sun blasting sideways across the field it just seems like it’s got to be on another planet in a galaxy far far away

agreed - been trying to advertise tomorrow as 'not as bad as the grouse tempo' This morning there was a lot of hand waving/86ing of the whole weekend - ha. Today is unredeemable sure ... It's almost a split in Boston, if this 18z NAM has any say. It's continued the trend to edge/inch the lower 700mb RH E, and now has ALB-LGA pretty much partly to mostly sunny by late afternoon. I think the present hi res vis loop shows how this is going to go. You can see it's breaking down out there in PA/NY where's we will be in relation to the filling vortex come sun up... I suspect that partly cloudy is at least in the ORH Hills, and where I think it 76 F at 4:30 pm or thereabouts and probably above MOS... This is only going to continue improving east through the evening. But the bigger aspect is no rain and dry roads and drying fields. Should be okay I think. 'Sides, full disclosure ..I don't want it to be 88/72 on 4th of July. That's not fun standing around with paper plates in that heat with deer flies doing mobius loops around your head in backyard cook-outs.

No ...I don't think so anyway ...oh wait maybe Boston. I thought they were 60 ... Most likely if there were, it's not pervasive enough to give this scenario it's shit eating grin - it's zero redemption rectal plaque

This happened BECAUSE of the heat - namely and more precisely, the exotic SD ridge anomaly in lower BC and Manitoba caused the heights to unusually plumb S through the eastern Lakes - that out there drove this... ? that out there was a 1:200 year deal ( supposedly ..) so it's almost quasi logical to say ... this was also that rare. Probably not in the absolute sense, but geesh - what the atmosphere has to pull off to do once, and get everyone to grouse like it's all the time. lol That said, the poster's post isn't without merit, entirely... I just as well leave on April 3 and not return until May 20 ( end time negotiable too ) every year if I had my druthers. This is April today

If you look closely at the rad loop you get an impression of OE slipping underneath the advance of that plume, too - like my god.

His point is valid though - the models do tend toward pessimism in the summer ... I think in this case, however, that may be more demonstrative tomorrow. We'll see - don't shoot me Even today ( in a way..) ..we've had a couple of periods of day-glo-lamp brightening despite the cloudy skies with occasional drab rains. Which btw, can't prove this but it may have been what prevented ORH the record - just that amount of very modest almost imperceptible heating. Whatever it takes to make it less interesting huh - jeez I mean this is only like this because of excessive moisture loading - really. I mean, it's not a 55 F air mass, not by tropospheric thickness? It's just preventative - I'm digressing into another aspect I know, but this is really kind of like bootlegging a near historic cold high. See, typical rainy cool profiled days in July should 65 ... so in that sense, it is an impressive cool anomaly, but really only by 10 degrees relative to butt-bang weather. ha -... but you get my meanin'. If it were partly sunny with a NW wind and it was 55 up on the hill, that would be more impressive - but that is probably something that can't happen. Maybe in order to get any kind of < 55 day requires a butt load of NE flow and driving sheety mist under a 10K foot deep ceiling

Patients is a commodity around here... particularly for a nerved vitriolic corral of Holiday-weather abused, but it seems tomorrow might be better than these guidance, similar to what is going on out just W of the Cap District of eastern NY We'll see.. not sure of this, but I don't see this whole thing as deepening - in fact, after this last gasping slug of death rain it throws at eastern CT now... this region may begin to translate in for tomorrow.

wow... Red Sox with 8-G win streak on-going .. I knew they won lately but I didn't realize it was that deep. (Law of averages + west coast road trip) /2 = ...proobably a trip back to Earth here sooner rather than later but we'll see.

How dare one mentions weather concepts in a banter thread but ... I can see this whole thing starting to break down actually - The closed gyre is filling and this can be seen by observing the various attributes of the sat loop. The higher air motion is peeling off/tending to more E and taking the higher cloud RH with it. There is a slant-wise incursion of air flow now punching into the NW sectors of the total trough space, from western Ontario, and western NY and N NY are improving rather abruptly - I don't even know if that was modeled well? but those regions probably desolve out to partly cloud with plenty of sun splashing before mid afternoon ..probably as far E as the outer western region of the Capital District of eastern NY/Mohawk Trail. Today's shot. But I suspect that tomorrow may have been overly pessimistic in the guidance. Typically, with backside troughs, exiting GOM, we end up with enough NW drift to d-slope and models notoriously keep drizzle and murk ( snow showers in the winter version heh ) going too long when regions verify partly sunny. Granted the wind is light in this case - kind of sucks ...you want more defined d-slow motion, but there is enough there. We'll see if the erosion from the NW mentioned above continues to en road in, and looking up stream that appears to be a bigger synoptic push ...so this thing may actually in total be too conserved in guidance by 6 or so hours...something just enough to save tomorrow afternoon ... Who's with me!! lol... no seriously I think tomorrow improves. Not sure about others but we have Monday off in observance and ...hey. Day off + 80 + less clouds and tepid dps ? I'll take that.

Yeah, even the MEX has FIT/ASH/BED all 77/91/88 for those three days. The Euro has the warmer synoptic appeal. Typical for the GFS ..particularly beyond D3 ..where/whence it has sufficiently accumulated enough cooler heights on the polar side of the mean jet as a dependable, mid range crushing performance piece of dogshit - I predicted this last winter ..heh, "predicting model bias" as it were. The GFS would not be a very good tool for early heat detection out in time, because of it's hemispheric rasping. Anyway, point of this is that it overcomes that native bias and at least gets Wed/Thu more +6 in the high on climo numbers - so that could be a tick or two soft due to climate weighting, too. My bet is that the Euro 'mos' would be warmer on Tuesday given to +18.5 C over the region, lowish ceiling RH and offshore general flow.

Predicated on the assumption there is anything there lol - I see a low level core occasionally decoupled from the convection. I don't even see much evidence of westerly shear - this seems to be just storm-relative induced for having the low level flow screaming along at ludicrous speed, anything caught up in it, including this coughing Elsa is moving redic fast relative to the mid level troposphere down there. In other words, it's sort of producing a shear from that anomaly - You can thank excessive subtropical ridge strength for that - and don't get me started on what/where/why that is the case. Anyway, if this thing continues to dislocate from its stack and then goes across Cuba, it won't likely emerge enough intact then survive Florida, and those track coordinates out here in time will be tracking a theta-e plume and not much more.. becoming phantom