Typhoon Tip

NAM has that, yeah - in fact, goes from this tepid humid rainy murk to a sultry bathe house tomorrow... Not so much at sun up as amorphous warm frontal smear road-kills through but the 18z T1 pops all the way from 17C at dawn to 24 C ..which is usually a 2-meter T of 28 or 29C when the wind is off-shore and the sky is losing cloud burden. Then at 18z Thur that temp is 26C ! That's like 88 to 90, and situational awareness ... DPs will be probably the highest they have yet to be during this summer thus far at that time. - watch Whole different world

I think this is another innocuous example of how the HC expansion shit is f'ing with 'normal' circulation modes. The correlations that normally realize/situate are getting skewed. It's not just screwing up winter by speeding the flow so vastly, that the R-wave distributions are unstable.. This is a sub -Rosby scale example. I'm certain of it, but cannot prove it without an army of grad-students to do all the work while I publish the paper and bathe in narcissistic glory ... LOL. kidding. Longer version: one does not typically observe cold air loading into the lower levels choking the entire synoptic-scaled region, while a west/near coastal ridge node balloons to ( yet for the 4th time this late spring into summer, too) near historic proportions. In fact, in my 35 years of being privy to this field of science and theory? I have never seen surface temperature struggling to rise, coincident while non-hydrostatic heights soaring to the mid 590s, not while hydrostatic thickness' are also well over 570. I have seen thickness' be disproportionately lower during higher heights in spring - but that's related to low DP thermodynamic integration in the column. This is not that - We should be 100... 64 That's got to be the most extreme disconnect ever. We're talking about shedding nearly 40 F of potential. So direct reason for that oddity: The cold loading is coming from an E trajectory off the north Atlantic... a flow that originates from high pressure that refuses to settle S of the 40th latitude line. I mean from the look of it at these standard product intervals,, it seems to hang in free space defying. The high pressure, itself, is typically not manufactured at height intervals this upward extreme/or at the upper bounds. But this is where the HC idea comes into play. It's enhancing the summer polar jet, by virtue of increasing the gradient along the 55th parallel - in the means. That sends unusually strong confluence potential through that band, as well as just organizing more wave structures that are going against the more typical summer nebular entropy quotient. ugh. I know. Anyway, that organized wave spacing and enhanced confluence saw an explosive rise in heights ABOVE the 576 dm over western Ontario over the last couple of days, and now that has propagated E ..but the surface high is still be generated along that total transit of mechanics. Now centered S of NS, it is drilling mass west under heights that we dont' typically see that happening. Whether it is HC expansion of not... that was an unsuaully strong rising height event over Ontario, taking place at/within a range of geopoential heights ( non-hydrostatic) that typically does not do that. 564 to 582 is more typical.. Heights rise through that range, that means there is confluence and surface high pressure forms and send BDs and N-arriving boundaries down the M/A...etc. This is doing that whole ball of wax above 582, which is unusual. Another casualty of all this? convection. Naturally, if you pin surface reading to just 70 under heights and thickness that high, there is zero omega and zero instability. May as well completely consider the lower atmosphere decoupled entirely from any aspect above the 700 mb level - in fact, the standard chart intervals are really more miss-leading as to what the "surface" synopsis is being forced from.

They engineer all these geomorphologies to conserve hydro and they work reasonably well in ranges from low, to on point climate … but unfortunately, that doesn’t stop being proficient when in surplus.

NOOooooo sun for you - ONE YEAR!

incredible moosh job going on. clearing and NE push behind BD is entering NE zones as we type, but that boundary is not moving SW of current location over NYC... Something's gotta give

Ironic perhaps ... "activist" by definition and expected nature is supposed to be consistent with "social awareness," which if so .. is in an inherent conflict of interesting. It's why ( logic ) argues they are glib, pumped up and pimped fakery that is targeting to sell to those groups. It's kind of both in that sense? They may have the interests of the targeted group in heart. They may not. But the "partisan" part - yeah... Targeting means excoriation of the other side by default of message.

I think - not to sound unamerican or nothin' - Freedom Of Press was not intended for the Internet Era... Just like the 2nd Amendment was not meant for a culture with bubble-gum dispensery fire-arms, where there is in reality hardly any threat of militia. Actually... speaking of bubble-gum. The dime store sophist would argue that a population overrun with incalculable fire power is in its self become a militia... particularly when it is schismatic by the Internet's ability to collect separatist cultural perspectives and then embolden their causes. Talk about an insoluble morass of f'ed up unintended consequences. E-gads! And all at the hands of human achievement, too. WOW I dunno how to pull it all back. Probably too late. Cat's out of the bag. Ship's too far gone over the horizon and is out of radio range... Pick the trope. But in an ideal world, news media should not be engaging in marketing news and information for profit, particularly when it supersedes fact. And CNN and FOX ? Despite operating from Left vs Right - they are after the same goal.

Wouldn't shock me if this month is orange and red everywhere in N/A except a stream of blues running from the Labradorian realm to a wading pool over New England.

You've probably heard me say this before, so apologies if it's gotten old but .. The era, day and moment the IMC figured out how to use T.V. channel pings, mouse clicks on PC web, and/or thumb-swipes across those filthy COVID-spreading "smart" phones to move economics, society was doomed. Doomed to only lies. Pure truism? It actually causes pain... It has fallen too far below the drug potency of everyday, over-sold stimuli ... much of which is f'n invented polish. People can't put down their technology and take this statement seriously, because in order to read this statement ... they have to engage the goddamn shit. LOL ... buuuut, look out the window. THAT is reality. Everything else is human contrivance. ALL OF IT. Period. It's real easy. Don't. Ends it. People can't get their minds around the notion that they are living inside an illusion of urgency that is perpetuated by allusions of grandeur - they think reality is what is in the technology. It's mind blowing. Granted some of these statements ... yeah, a little hyperbolic but the gyst of it is real and is just as problematic. The carbon footprint of man will force a population correction, ... not anything else that is currently sold as important by the IMC. Oh, "Industrial-Media Complex" ... But to that point I bold above ...I have seen CNN do this all the time actually. They post some small, innocuous article title in the right rail of their main news-org web-site, and then three hours later, it's either a banner headline, or disappears. It's obvious what is going on there behind the 'scene' - they're testing ping rates. 10,000 of 'em inside of 3 hours won't cut it. But a couple million? Next thing you know, it's BREAKING NEWS THAT WILL UTTERLY CUT YOUR BALLS OFF UNLESS YOU READ READ READ AND CLICK CLICK CLICK through our pages with nested ads. hahaha. seriously... they are like bald -faced whores of sensationalism for profit, aimed a zombified e-tropic dystopian addicts. So yea...we're all douches on both sides of that vitriol. Awesome!

I wonder if this joke has any meaning in reality when winter becomes VA Beachian

Again ..emphasizing the oddity of this pattern. We don't normally observe heights rising over 590 and in fact eclipsing even 594 before reaching apex, on both the polar and equatorial side of a boundary. That's seldom going to be seen in 1900-1998 climo - It's not so much the scalar altitude of that depth, it's that heights don't typically rise over cold air, period. But this modeled behavior really is like a decoupled troposphere, with a different synoptic evolution taking place above the 700 mb - and then what we deal with going on below. I am willing to venture a guess - this is an under the radar weather phenomenon that is very rare. It just doesn't appeal to anyone's senses, so they don't know to look. You don't feel 594 heights under cast by 62 F temperatures. 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% of everyone just thinks it's a cool day. But that combination of metrics, I bet you that is a tough search to find that in history. Not only that, but having heights that high on the polar side of warm front, too. There's few aspects about this that seem almost like they can't happen - yet here we are. I think I figured it out though. I was noticing when stepping back of the EPS mean/loop... Although there are those height rises over our vicinity and the M/A ..., there is an even greater height rise acceleration taking place over Ontario. That acceleration up there amounts to confluence - whether that happens at a more typical 540 to 580 dimension, or is taking place near the top physical/plausible atmospheric heights is irrelevant. You end up with a mass imbalance with surface pressure formulation, and then it's going to tuck S - It's more an indictment of HC frankly. Because that outer rim of the amorphous termination into the westerlies is being caused to rise through a dimension that it doesn't normally rise through. The EPS anomalies are pretty hefty over N. Ontario - getting there happens rather abruptly yesterday into today as well. If we are willing to root HC expansion into Climate Change, you could argue this is a hemispheric micro-scale example of how GW causes a counter-intuitive effect.

I've often thought of our regional geography as too serrated. It floods, but takes more than the dishpan flat Plains. They get 3 or 4" overnight in an MCS activity, and they wake up with standing water in fields rolling out across roads, and flood warnings and so forth. If they get that over excessively than 1994's may happen, sure. I think our region maintains hypostatic balance between hydro uptake and release rates, and higher levels because of the old geology having dales next to hills and stuff. It'll flood in both regions, but it takes more here - speculative.

Who cares - Darwinism ... They'll either die off, or gain immunity. Once there is a way out for everyone, which ..tentatively but encouragingly so far there is with vaccine, it doesn't matter. Ignore the headlines. Just maintain readiness and booster if needed. Otherwise, there's no story there. Let 'em

Actually ... there ya go - Charles River is bank full

No one cares but ...I couldn't be happier My living room A.C. shit the bed and I cannot presently afford a new one. I had a pretty whopping financial commitment to window replacements, ..whole house. Then, my refrigerator died 10 days later. That same week, this A.C. unit goes? So, I'm pretty content for 68 F ...whether it is wet or dry, I don't care - keep it that way until I recover enough to replace this A.C. Even though I am a fan man until it gets worse than the typical tolerance, I have been finding that this summer is breaching that upper threshold more frequently, in between these CC- hyper PWAT episodes when we are not being doused (eh hm). SO, if one is of a neolithic mentality of totem spirits and consequence, they can blame me. I'm psyched. Unfortunately, this probably won't last more than a couple days. 00z Euro has 70 to 80 across the area of Wednesday with the wind turning around and this BD air mass washing out. Then, Thu and Fri feature +15 to 17 C at 850 with a SW drift importing an endless supply DP stench. yuck - probably won't be 90... but 88.4/76.7

Estimating .4" in this last batch over the last 40 minutes. Crescent pelting on the streets with ample gutter wash. Area streams up here in N Middlesex haven't really responded to the hoopla. Doesn't mean much to the local environment until that is so, and thus at least indirectly signals surplus. Not sure how hydro offices calculate those metrics, but accordingly we are not in a deficit at this time, while it continues to rain prodigiously relative to climate. There is very little systemic flooding. I suppose it is not a seamless transition from deficit to the consequence in surplus. And meh at basements ..yes, in a few local regions that'll happen; it's beneath pervasive river response. I haven't actually heard of any demonstrative observation of that either. It may be we near thresholds. I guess what it "comes down" to (haha), is that these anachronistic rain bursts in summer, they will continue to prime. Then when a 6" -10" hurricane comes up that whole unstoppable series in serendipity culminates the sociopath's destructive lust in these social media forms - ...wow, what a delightfully poetic turn of phrase that was. LOL. Kidding but it's true .. Floods are like plain crashes. Seldom does one thing bring a plane down ... it's a series of unfortunate events that constructively interfere leading to the destruction of the time line ( so to speak..heh). How ironic -

You can make out the undercutting cold front making its way south through central NE. It extends W-E from N of Albany to PSM. Kind of neat looking looping that

Man .. ‘Magine halt up in 130 heat needing a drink or die and it happens to be there ?

The heat out west is a climate event – a single heat wave of staggering proportions is head scratching enough but this is become an aggregate scenario. - people really need to appreciate the significance of what this is - also I’m starting to suspect even the 134° death Valley temperature back in 1917 or whenever that was might also be suspect. Because we have now registered the two warmest lows in the US history just since 2012 so where are the daytime highs ? I don’t find it likely that those events were cooler than back then went back then is not boasting the Nocturnals. It’s just a hunch

Yup... the inventor of the model was dyslexic ... The 'H' was supposed to be a 'C'

...while height rises and surpasses 594 dam thru and over the boundary - this physics of this ordeal are whack - I mean the Euro seems to have completely decoupled anything below the 800 mb level from above - two distinct atmospheres behaving with entirely different synoptic forcing. Never seen that - ..not just the Euro either.

LOL, not sure about "90%" but point taken. I mean, some of these ball rotations exceeded 3,000 rpm. 90% is 2700 ... I get what you mean, but these asshats were not spinning the ball at those rates in summer heat and sweaty hands. No way... 2700 + rates doesn't likely happen without more significant mechanics assist - like an unnaturally tight grip while shortening one's career through medial epicondyle ligament damage, in order to realize glory and money now. Hahahaha

Sumpin' like ghat, yeah - I mean, conjecture and hypothesis, but we draw from education and wisdom, so not merely rube guesswork reckin

this sort of reminds me of a storm track tendency in winter, whence the storm track favors NNE early, then tries ( but usually fails due to HC expansion..) to move S in Feb for 10 minutes...before a late snow(s) in Maine/March up N. It's like as the STR reaches apex climo circa July 18 - Aug 10, that training rains f-up PF and Tam's mid summer... lol. Who's with me!

It is an unusual synoptic situation Monday through mid week. Again we near historic non-hydrostatic heights, yet cannot/won't (in any guidance) be associated with positive temperature anomalies at the surface. Interesting Longer version: This sort of imbalanced look, where tall ridging doesn't reflect in surface temperature, that is much more akin to mid April to early June. Lower ambient heights across Canada to the D. Straight, and then higher heights approaching from the S circumstantially causes intense confluence structures. They roll passed N Maine, sending surface high pressure anomalies down through the lower Maritime region and the butt- bangin' of New England is complete: E lower tropospheric jet sets up into the upper M/A and NE, etc, under a glance that would look like mid 80s. This is doing that exact same behavior, but with both hydro and non-hydro static heights that would support 100 ! Personally, I have never seen this phenomenon at the very ceiling of the geophysical non-hydrostatic heights. That's the unusual aspect. We're talking 594 to 597 dm heights in a large circumvallate; and they don't really get higher on Earth without two suns ( hyperbole). Anyway, unusual elevated ( near the top of the atmospheric geophysical ceiling in fact) non-hydrostatic depths = mid 60s ? fascinating - here's the coup de gras: the hydrostatic heights, the thickness, are over 570! So this entire oddity involving full metrical aspects - So why? It seems there are modest polar jet wind anomalies in the geopotential flow across the southern tier of Canada --> exaggerating the confluence orientation. I dunno...perhaps owing to HC expansion shit introducing compression to the heights up there, as anyone with beef for brains would agree ...the ambient subtropic ridging owns the hemisphere right now. You can see this all the way across the Pacific, Atlantic, through the sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian Ocean... This expanded anomaly may be pressing into and enhancing gradients along 50 to 60 N. Stronger westerlies = stronger attending wave mechanics. It'll wane out... Confluence moves off and/or changes flow orientation etc, and the surface high normalizes. But it's interesting that we will pass through the 4th very large and unusually tall ridge structure this warm season - which is some kind of frequency record ... christ - but this one appears to not only be neutered for heat, there may actually be modest negative anomalies in SNE during the time period in question.