Typhoon Tip

Heh. It’s a CC rain event. all acts of anything falling from the sky since 1855 have gotten bigger. Lol But yeah that’s why snow has been prodigious too. They said it’s all built in to the f* climate change/models - so weak kinematics get us too flooding. Nice ! flooding is cool ha

The mechanics of that appear too weak to produce that much QPF … perhaps owing to comparatively weaker synoptic forcing but in higher PWAT air mass, thus sensitive to triggering. It’s probably related why everything at that range ends up amplified in the EPS/operational version.

nothing like grapple down to Lake Superior - totally normal at the absolute apex of summer

Yeah... I used to get into it the life. The clip-in shoes, and the helmet and garb. I turned right down an intersecting street and some teen age nitwit wasn't paying attention and hit me from behind on her bicycle - wasn't even a car... I heard her shriek out in horror just then, and then I as on the ground having just spent 1.24 seconds air born over the handlebars. It takes just that much to ruin a day ..week, month year or in that poor bloke's case, life. I just lost my nerve. I'm mid age and no ambition to be sleek. Fuggit. work out is a work out. I'm perfectly contented now on my high tech Specialized Rockhopper. 'Sides, my road bike was forced retired back in April because it had developed a micro-fracture in the frame some where. Can't be fixed... But, libel to fold up on me going around some tight corner at 33 at some bad point or the other. I'm like ...okay, that's it - I don't care about this hobby that much. So, I outfitted just the back wheel of the Rockhop' with a slick middle hybrid tire tread option, so that it spins okay on roads, and I just hit the bike trails. We have a lot of them around down here now. They can be 12 or even 16 miles long in one direction, so if you can make a good enough distance work out going to the end and back.

But aren't those just the same as the stationary bike at the gym ? I mean, I realize with Pel. you get that internet group thing and classes and shit ... But that means nothing to one's physiology. The stationary tech at the gym allows one to set resistance, keep track of calories, MPH and distance traveled ..etc. So you are either turning the peddles at resistance-cadence, or not, right. I'm not sure what the advantage is -

I have been wondering that… It seems like the models try to edge towards it finally tipping over and flopping big heights in the east and then it goes right back into some kind of raging early autumn mode driving hgts down thru the great lakes/eastern Canada. and bottling up heights in the west. It’s been oscillating back-and-forth across every two or three days worth of cycles. Could be a major heatwave out there ; could be nothing but blasé for the rest of the way -on the fence as it were

This clearing line edging east through eastern Mass is legit. Explosion of open sky sun happens at the scale of street width when that goes by Now, regular diurnal CU fills partially in. Also, area home stations bolted from 74 to about 82 so far. Average DP is 74

actually the sun is cleaving through here.. the mid and high gunk was not well modeled by the NAM and other short range guidance ...It capped the low levels from morning insolation so... that's why the morning busted a bit cooler than guidance. It may late recover - not sure what the bounce ability of this air mass is. My guess is not huge - considering it's a mixture of toxic Labrador sludge and high DP rot from the M/A.

WPC just updated their surface map ...seems far more instructive on this interval -

wait ..are you female? Not being a jerk - I don't know you. Heh. let's face it, female physiology is a bit more ... "responsive" shall we say to cool settings. Something I have noticed in the past - ahahahaha. No but its true

This is secluded at this point... That region E, over the ocean, is more open sky than not and moving N with cloud tags. Meanwhile, the region enclosed above is demonstrating on-going resistance, and cloud parcels ( looping this image ..) are moving over top. I've likened it to white paint spilled on a freeway surface, with the cars ( cloud parcels ) and other traffic passing over it. It's like that. When looping, it's almost as though it has a resistant polarity to free air, or an "electro static" kind of force holding it in place. it's really like 75 mb of calm air inversion at the bottom. In any case, the edges of this region have been eroding inwards at the blazing speed of about 5 mph

What the hell are y'all running in... chafed nipples? I've been running 30 K/ week for years, ...three 10 K runs, ... It's 6.2 miles, so 18.6 is a typical week. I get black toe here and there - mainly because I forget to check my toe-nail length and that starts that. Sometimes an edge of a toe-nail may at first, too gently poke an adjacent toe to notice, but over the course of many thousand foot falls... sometimes I don't feel that until I'm back and there's blood in my sock - not a lot, but oops. So, yeah, shit happens to runners. But chafed nipples - how do you do that?

Heh...looking at hi res vis loop, almost looks like this BD air mass has secluded itself. S flow over the ocean and now cuts it off over top in NNE, leaves this latext paint spill clinging to the land from NYC to BOS ... Can you imagine if just stayed that way until next June. Whole year of that -

Step lightly the rest of the day my friend. Don't take any chances. Don't make any sudden movements. That's a shot across the bow - " its " giving you warning ... don't mess with it. LOL You know, you hear about these fluke accidents that defy absurdity - go beyond description. On 495 like ...10 or 15 years ago, there was this freak thing. Some construction vehicle with a high-tension industrial spring-loaded boom was toolin' down the highway, said boom was negligently/insufficiently clamped. Now, that tech is mechanized/designed so that the spring-tension doesn't actually release it's stored energy ( aiding the extension of the gantry ), until the arm exceeds a certain extension. So there it was, unclamped, fully spring loaded, bobbing gently up and down as it went over the highways surface "rosby waves", precariously ... just below said threshold. Anyone else's luck would have prevented what happened next. Some women was passing on the right as the truck went over some slightly more elevated rise in the road and that arm bobbed up, over the threshold, the spring releases ...and because it was not released in concert with the hydraulics ...it explosively released all at once and came down like a cosmic hammer on the woman's vehicle as she was passing... Flipped the truck, too - it was like so much rage targeting that hapless passing small vehicle it had to flip the whole truck like an angry pro-wrestler's move. Can you imagine going 74 mph and the equivalent of 10 ton out of no where, in a flash, instantly grinding your vehicle into a FUBAR smear down a quarter mile of sparks and smoke and twisted industry? That's just beyond freak probability. That shit's something else. heh. You almost wonder if she was on a bike ride or a run that morning and nary missed -

Meanwhile... SPC places a region of NE inside a SLGT hashing that is precisely where it always fails

We'll see if it holds. I have a suspicion we finish +1 anyway ...which is a relative win for those that don't prefer summer, for a lot of reason. ha! It's the way in which these/those neg values got aggregated - it took a bizarre pattern anomaly to do it, with 594 dm ridge anomaly actually CAUSING a cold surface - using observed means that were probably pretty rarefied frankly. It's almost (symbolic) as though it got so hot in the mid and upper troposphere that it caused things to flip by way of inverting the sounding too much. But ... that odd timing of that surface high genesis and movement over the last 3 to ...jesus 4 days now, has really happened in a range depth of Rosby heights, both hydro and non hydro static, very seldom seen, and as a consequent, we sustained a cold low level jet right under some otherwise extraordinary warmth aloft. Very strange - Talks about faking cold. Whatever it takes to keep balance the climate loading. I have mused this in the past... Usually when you have a striking climate departure, usually start seeing a counter/mirror or diametric balance emerge, whether in short extremeness, or in aggregate...usually not too far away. Sometimes that does take awhile when it is the aggregate form. Put it this way...if we were -2 for July ( also very plausible...), and -3 for august, we were average for summer. But the sensible impact for summer enthusiasts was a gip-job shirked piece of shit stolen season. Same bullshit happens in winter. All a season's worth of snow eggs laid down in two storms in CC PWAT mass, then it never snows again. Average year? Just making zamples... But, June was staggeringly warm here. I don't know if that is sustainable for a summer- intuition tells us no anyway. I don't know if July can manage to sustain -4 when it took the above rareness to get it that cold, and there is still two weeks remaining... and that base-line heights are positive through the end of the month in the ens means of all. It'll be interesting.

What's interesting about that thunderstorm is how rogue it was ( seemingly targeted and intended may be a better description lol) ... There is/was nothing else, anywhere else at the time. That thing developed just west of HFD and moved precisely tracked to clip your location and run-rought ( here'e comes - get 'im). Within 5 minutes of your return from that run, it was entirely vanished from the radar scope. Nada. No sign there was ever anything there in so much as a level 1 green clump down stream. https://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KBOX&prod=BREF&bkgr=gray&endDate=20210714&endTime=-1&duration=4 I've had that happen though. Cycling is a bitch. Mile 16 and 8 to go ... blinding rain and flashes and hold-up under a bridge. Get home and find that it was a three pixel 50 dbz micro-core that lasted precisely as long as I was going to be passing through that neighborhood. I usually lay low the rest of that day knowing that God is throwing bolts at me. Some people ignore the signs HAHA

I’m not sure folks are actually believing their hyperbole about how bad things are right now… But if they are, tomorrow’s going to be a complete shocker - predicated on the assumption that the last three or so cycles of the Nam run or actually correct…LOL This FOUS T1 run supports a 2 m temperature of about 29°C with the dewpoint around 22 or 23°C probably 5 to 6 PM tomorrow late afternoon over all of metro west of eastern Massachusetts to Hartford to New York City. Anyway 85/73 … then 90/73 Thurs

As the annotation earlier suggests and this, until this higher sfc pressure gets the hell outta those regions of E and N of Maine... we be f-ed

Yeah, okay - but I suspect they are low-balling the DPs in this discussion. Hell, even the NAM has 71 DP in the machine numbers, which from my own experience is a hard thing to do for that particular guidance engine. " ...Northeast... A shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Northeast on Wednesday. A moist airmass will be in place from the Mid-Atlantic into western New England where surface dewpoints should reach the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, the airmass will become moderately unstable. Thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain of the central and northern Appalachians, with this activity spreading eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. The moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates will make strong wind gusts possible with the better organized multicell line segments. The threat should be concentrated during the mid to late afternoon when instability will be maximized." We'll see... but, considering DPs in that warm sector about to spill into the area tomorrow are 70 to 74F already, and it will be wafting in over tropical soils baked in solar max sauna... I'm -a gonna go ahead and assume our DPs will be at least that high. Which makes me wonder what they think the CAPE values ... SB and MU, will really be if they use words that "sound" like through trials and tribulations the air mass endures and triumphs to make 68 ...LOL

So now there is this counter--push to disavow the Wuhan Lab/ ... covert bio-toxic weapons program leading to an industrial accidental release scenario - Okay. And round and around we go.

yo Wiz ...I think with the recent guidance attempting to spill the theta-e surplussed ... global warming ( ) sector over the western elevations tomorrow, that may help some convective numbers. Anyone caught in negative CAPE production probably gets water boarded in blue-green marine rain cores for starters. Probably wet outflow winds

For quick and dirty map annotates it's actually pretty convenient - I'm at work now so on a laptop and it's not a big thing. Also, fixed the frontal pip because of ocd

uh huh, and maybe I did that on purpose cuz the whole situation is whack and it's a metaphor for bass ackwards - huh. Yeah. who's with me

The root of Scott's demon: It's gotten a little brighter in the ceilings over the last hour up here in the N-central interior. After some bullet showers, hanging over the top of this Atlantic rhea moved off and took their anvil umbrellas with them, it's opened the sky (pretty much about/above 2,000 feet) to solar max whalin' away at this shit. Probably, we thin all at once at 6:34 pm - seen this over and over again. Smacks your ballz with "edging" sun late. One of Globe's sports writers once coined the expression, 'winning is the best deodorant' ? I think that can metaphorically work in this situation. We string 3 or so days of 88 to 91 over DPs in the mid 70s together, back to back, this will all be a distancing memory. I still think that it is interesting ( extraordinary really...) that we did this pattern annotated above, at the very top of the geophysical envelope of heights in the total tropospheric integral. Baffles where it came up with the mechanics against the ceiling like that. I think I know why ..as I labored earlier, having to do with HC and shit.. either way, here we are. There have been now 4 of these 594 historic ridge events, this one presently/fascinatingly results in negative temperature anomalies. It's really quite a bit of a teach-able synoptic moment.