Typhoon Tip

I spoke at length about that months and months ago then what happens … it mutates [supposedly ] into an even more potently virulence - Hmmm. Frustrating. Angering. Not a good optic

May be the hand of an archeologist alien one future day

Heh … I said I thought the trough would end up perhaps 20% less … I’m not sure that translates to much support for either side of the DP argument. Thing is this whole modeled construct is just amped enough it could spare 20% and still plunk in an autumn homage in the recent Euro runs. I have noticed the NAM’s hydrostatic hgts are still above 560 ; DPs probably won’t be terribly low or those would have to slip into the mid 550s. That’s only thru early Fri tho. Is there another boundary ?

Ha, right - "we never said the valley's dead. Just that it likes to kill people" Maybe it was a blossom that drew people into the trap -

whatever develops is gonna be haulin' ass

Reminds me... you know, how ever it is or isn't very well known... "death" in Death Valley is sort of a misnomer. Because there are flora species adapted to aridity in such a way as to remain utterly dormant...sometimes for a decade or more, and then when it does rain prodigiously in the valley - albeit rare - the floor explodes in a sea of extravagant wild flower displays. Moreover, there has to be pollen dependent insect biota also activated, otherwise, ...what's the the use of flowers? Basically, dormancy is replaced by transient abuzz of life ...with insects darting too and fro, flowers waving in torrid breezes, and probably ground floor rodentia have entered the valley foor, while birds of prey engage mobius-loops in the skies above, surveying for a rare meal. It may only occur once per decade or longer, but the region does have an ecology.

I think what this pattern tells us is that we can flip the script regardless of time of year. If we were passed the solar max ... ~ Aug 8 ... warm enthusiasts feel ripped off and early abandon. If we got this pattern in early September we'd be clocking early frosts. We may in fact go back and register another WAR- like pattern ...if/and/or some form of western ejection/enmeshed air mass after about 8 .. 9 days. Some semblance of that in the ens means and operational cadence, more or less vague at times. If so, this oddly sloped +PNAP is a memory - but... should be thought of when it tries to poke back in for a late August/Sept visit. I think this CC -related circulation and seasonal prolapse is real. I don't have any conceptual issue with assuming we see early autumnal strikes, followed by unusual warm bounce back ... oscillatory with snow tucked into one of the cold pulses toward the end of 2.5 months. Yup, I said it. Don't worry, it'll by 80 in November at least once.

2013

Just a thought ... 2002 and other fires of smokey lore, were really our backyard geographies. I mean Ontario? c'mon This? Come from across the continent, where from/via passage over and through industry - just wondering if there is some weird binding with industrial aerosol waste mixing in with it then being worked on by UV ... viola. We have a special kind of carcinogenic nox - lol...

I was living in Winchester MA at the time.. I memory that as a very elevated smoke layer. I also recall looping sat and it was a narrow band but ..could be miss-remembering - .. heh, working on 20 years ago. yeah, here it is -

Yeah 'been wondering. Not sure what the return rate is on smoke circumventing the global and choking far away geographies. I remember .. shoot, I wanna say 2003, summer. There were wild fires in Canada that summer and we got stuck in a high troposphere conveyor that brought a lot of smoke down but confined above~ > 20 K elevation. I mean it looked like busted mammata up there under ... 80 F with a dim orb sun. I thought that was impressive. Never on the ground though. I was just thinking about this very same subject an hour ago, when we bottomed out at 2 mi vis in yellow pall under diffused headache blinding obliterating sun shine, just how weird it was how you could smell what burned 2500 miles away. I don't recall that kind of fully integrated over-turning, either.

Hopefully it's I/Q's

Bye-bye permafrost over the NW Territories if that Euro's D9/10 succeeds in 590 dam heights over top +18 C 850s Anything to ruin heat enthusiast summers in the Lakes and NE ... setting off a global Methane outgassing apocalypse ...haha

It doesn't have to be anecdotal either ... We technically were 'supposed' to have entered a multi-decadal -AO osccillatory mode ( meaning that mode is favored ), which happens along a similar well-correlated solar oscillation. It was tipping into the early 2000s and should be falling though 2025 I believe - The negative solar phase/-AO is the historical inference. The accelerated CC/GW is an introduction to that whole thematic arc that has unknown plot elements - that said... that doesn't preclude or abase the fact that going back 300 years worth of re-analysis demos there is an apparent -solar/-AO --> +solar/+AO movement of those curves. And the attribution science appears to link through UV rad flux in stratospheric Ozone... +solar breaks down Ozone, and that limits the chemistry for absorbing planetary warm advection at high lat/altitudes... where by dumping warmth in causes the SW to ignite.d Contrasting ... -solar and weaker UV input leaves Ozone population and Ozone thermal conductivity than absorbs incoming planetary wave decay and away she goes.

Counter intuitive perhaps ... but what we want is a raging +AO It's a warm index mode for mid latitudes, but that's by virtue of the fact that the westerlies are contracted polarward around the hemisphere during +AO phase. This 'bottles' up the cold and allows it promote its self - more so in the autumn and winter of course. But, the sun slope over the N pole being what it is... I am wondering if there is any solar max ( May 8 to to Aug 8 ... plus seasonal time-lag) +AO vs -AO correlation efforts made wrt to cryosphere. IF so, per relative anomaly. I know in winter, +AO --> -AO is how to unload the cold. In other words, the former builds it up... the latter supplies the conveyors during release. It is easier to visualize +AO cold production when above 77 deg latitude it is virtually nocturnal for 3 -6 mo's, than it is to do so when that same region is in virtual day the other times.

Hey Don - if ur around Do you by any chance have the historic PNA values - the notably anomalous periods in history ? I'm curious where the present CPC GEFs may rank for early August:

Something I've noticed lately ... past 10 days or so. Warm day scenarios seem to all be smoke plagued. Cool ones are clear(er). It's probably claiming some of our diurnal max potential? I am not completely sophisticated with smoke-aerosols and their effective thermodynamic micro-physical feed-backs, no - lol. But it seems intuitive that adding material to the atmosphere that has a separate and distinct absorption capacitance ... eventual long-wave radiation aspect to it may have some impact on heating potential. I almost imagine it keep nights slightly elevated, ...similar to 'cloud capping' preventing radiational heating. Or maybe the smoke itself re-radiates long wave rad back to the system. I dunno -...it's not like water vapor physics. That much we know.

For those interested ... we can see it pretty clearly on present sat: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Which is why a cold COVID civil war is brewing ... It'll heat up at times and won't be so cold. It won't tear civility apart - at least we don't think. But it will begin manifesting as the usual mall melee ... grocery store parking lot rumbles (hopefully some will take place over a church parking lot), or the occasional shooter using some twisted form of self-appointed COVID-cop complex triggered to rage, as an means to do what they really want which is just the violence lust ... It's inevitable that Humanity still thinks they can stop a force that's been prevalent and unconquerable to this world for 3 billion years... with masks. Holy fu! Quantum Tunneling is discovered to occur in molecular diffusion and chaos emergence in DNA chemistry recently as eerily instrumental in the origin of cancer ... 800 thousand years of primate evolution ...from slumped Proto Hominid, to upright aware moon-walkers, and the countless billions that have lived and died by proxy of disease vicissitudes along the journey ..gurgling through bile and blood for death gasps before their eyes drew vacant. Just mask - Digression 1: Society's replacing humility and reserved calculated approach, with faux conception of control will attempt to stop the pandemic with roll-backs on policy. Mask, hand sanitizing this, showing up in bedrooms as coital police to stop tongue pleasing wives. And none of it can ultimately work. Arrogance and conceit, or is it instinct? Digression 2: Believing in our significance, prominence to the extent that we should not have to abide the natural forces that gave us existence - it seems that's really the most consistent aspect about Humanity since that fateful day some million years ago whence the theorized Super Nova's Cosmic Ray burst upon the Earth, mutated are ancestral root's 'brain-gene.' Arthur C. Clarke may not have been that far off for his fictional view, when/where the benefiting genius ape first picked up the burning branch and realized he could cook meat ... Ever since that moment, this war we wage against the nature that put us here has raged. The ultimate f-u dad - or probably mom is more apropos. Digression 3: The universe is just an analog engine, disguising as metaphor. We see repeating patterns everywhere - it's just reprising fractals with slightly variant this or that as though it wants to confuse and befuddle the observer from realizing that 'the agency' really is not very creative. It is in fact more like ... re-imagining the same play, over and over again, just staged with different colors and set designs. The comparison of the borderline recalcitrant teenager informing authority in irreverence what they can go do with their advise: we are that adolescent species ( which face it... we are not adult - not even f'n close!). Humanity is in constant conflict to disconnect themselves from our dependency on the parental nature - that is an example of the great reprising Cosmos. It's everywhere. If you look you will begin to sense and see the repeating patterns. filling the ad infinitum's 90 billion light years of reality in all direction, with mere repeating coincidences in disguise? 'should' spark suspicion that we are being played by something. LOL Be that as it may ...and having succeeded at giving the reader a nascent migraine ( which was really all I wanted ) masks will only deteriorate the health of the individuals wearing them. I have a feeling natural will win this argument - the melees and altercations and this and that in the general gestalt theme, that is in fact that nature asserting its proxy. And the comedy of conceit's folly is that we only think those impulse ... repulse reactions are by choice.

Anti vaccine sentiment originated long before a conservative vs liberal doctrine could claim ownership … mid last century just sayn’ It may have been adopted by so-called conservatism lately but frankly … anti vaccine got a surge in popularity [really] as an organized platform-focus for a growing general antipathy toward big pharma … a fervor found more so in liberal ideology during and since the 1990s. It’s become a moving goalposts whenever it may fit a special interest’s narrative - Trump happened to not endorse it … now that particular sub-genera of republicanism is suddenly appalled by vaccine.

I thought some of their problem might’ve been having guys out on C19 protocols

I also suggest the overall trough magnitude will probably be 20 or so % less in areal scale compared to the Euro … and not as deep as the GFS over the polar side of the westerly

Course ... could all just be a matter of time the other shoe falls and the Sox have been cheating - Seems like cheating either has always happened for decades in all sports and now...with surveillance et al making it easier to detect. Or there is a complete and utter melt-down of ethics in professional sports. I wonder which -

I left a month's worth of innings ago when it was 3-0 Yankers ... and came back from my bike ride non-plussed at how precisely to the quanta of time that win musta manifest at point of click-tv-off. Shit it was getting late innings I though. haha. Good shit lord what kind of bad luck musta befell that Yanks. Which, frankly, I suffered those bloop singles yesterday that really was more like fractal luck... oh, and lest we forget the one bloop that would have tied it for the Red Sox but ooooh no - not when it went our way, huh. So, pay back's a bitch. Actually, now that I see the recap, ...looks like the same thing happened to them today, that happened to us yesterday. I thought Cora was too quick to pull Eovaldi... The bull-pens in both cases immediately imploded - but of the two, the Red Sox O was more convincing. They didn't have to bloop poop luck out their butts to steal a win, they sprayed bullets over the field.

I don't know exactly who we are speaking about, nor want to impugn/be involved in any finger pointing but ... yeah - I don't think there is an electrical pulse dog collar zapping anyone if they dare open a different web interface and doing something else ? is there -