Typhoon Tip

What were you expecting ?

Then right after.. D7+ a bomb Nor'easter crawling up/off the coast ... throwing back swept lashing CCB head of wind, heavy rain and cat-paws. Ew ... Granted, it may be over done ...but every one of the GEF members has a trough with a negative tilt at some point or the other, carving up the up coast between 150 and 200 hours. We'll see what happens, but out here in the purely objective deterministic approach to weather forecasting, we call that a loud signal for an event The EPS has a trough amplitude as does the GEPs so there is even at least some modest cross guidance weighting there. I think personally we need to get on the other side of that and we'll assess where we are at that time in terms of season.. But, we may have some decent days prior next week. The GFS still pins the warm front S and that's a general face smack tho .

Heh.. the 'guy at CVS,' eh - Was he a doctor, or a pharmacist ? ... perhaps the latter knows more than 'farmer john's internet rant,' sure ... but, how medically scienced is the opinion footed. I've read specific statements out among the greater ambient din of lies and truths that cloak reality, that directly state that one's reaction to the vaccine actually says less about its efficacy - so which is which... ? My god. you know, it's a bit ironic and funny how more access to information in this modern realm of dazzling technologies has actually only created a world of ever more bewildering obfuscation

Agree ... there is definitely an 'entitlement attitude' in these ... > 1995 born civilians/generationally ...call 'em cusp of gen-Z up through Millennials. Anyone in that generation has been depicted in satirized cinema to television, to literature in various forms and back, for a reason. It's a naivete over what they have to do, in order to get what they feel they deserve and have. Almost like afforded rank with relatively less amounts of exerted sweating or toiling to actual merit - another in their charming attributes, too, I'll tell you. ... It's not their fault, tho? They are a product of trophy culture - granted their births sort of predated that euphemism out in mainstream society, but the seeds of that was in the households back in the liberal 1990s. And frankly - also - the 'zygote' of the WOKE movement can be rooted back then, too. Also a movement modern convenience ubiquity allows/affords people the time and space to redirect their energy toward this 'recreational outrage' - make them toil in the fields or they don't eat, ..you'll see WOKE evaporate at the same speed as the sweat off their backs. The only thing WOKE is good for is the modern commandment of, 'Duh, don't be a c*nt!' - that's all. Just f'n say that! I mean they're just a product of the only reality they were brought up in - ... They just expect - nothing also to qualify. Where ever they, whatever they are doing, they expect - That motive and outlook on reality ...doesn't include shoveling shit for a living - a metaphor for anything less than a socially recognized position of advancing status and/or authority, personal-space ideologies they figuratively believe they are, already in their minds..

From what I looked at the 00z Euro tries to allow at least one day where the warm frontal arc gets to upstate NY ... dove tailing the eastern end to perhaps PSM at D4. That would imply a warm day in there at least to the Pike. Contrasting, the 00z GFS operational pins the warm front through mid PA and south of us... even closing off a wave to make sure it stays cold... amazing with the creative propensity of this model to engineer stopping warm air N of NYC at all times and circumstance always... Hate this f model! The difference really appears to be 72 hours. I did a isoheight comparison for both compression and position and the GFS is stronger with the exiting trough through the Maritimes by crucial amounts,... and that lays in a cooler air mass and starts the resistance rhea into motion. I suspect either run could be wrong for their own reasons. But the GFS version is likely too cold in the cold side of the westerlies ...which puts down a denser BL that inhibits the warm front. Euro's likely more right < 4.5 days out, in general.

Yeah.. that arithmetic certainly seems clad in that space alone - but it could be over-simplifying the beans on the counter in order to add things up that way, too. I am willing to bet that not all mom-and-pop small businesses and cottage industries are really operating at a shoe-string fragility as they are claiming. Some are, of course... But people have a way of lying about their zero-line, when zero for them is having to compromise at all ...It's probably not the case with your friend as you referenced earlier... just sayn' There's no one-size fits all truth about hardship. It just seems to me at a very basic math, if we create a systemically guaranteed pay-stub that puts any small business out of business, that is inherently sacrificing. Not sure how that can be avoided, unless there are subsidies built into this UBI legislature that offers restitution to those that were on the bubble and can prove it. That's really the solution right there - I think... Cough up the spread sheets to show shoe string's being cut by the UBI ubiguity and if they are, and your business is codified in registry ( i.e., propertly tax-coded... blah blah ) .. anyway - you get it. But all sacrifice is, is compromising assets now, because there is a bigger purpose to be gained. Unless it is mandatory - that's the problem right there, the "Universal" at the front of the B and I. But like I said, their should be some sort of compensatory that doesn't dumpster one's pride and joy and reason for living by the blithe momentum of societal machine. Having said all that... greed is ultimately the driver. The components that hold the scaffold of society et al toether, over time, inflate. This is normal free-market morality at work... via speculations/avarice... Given time, are over-valued rivets, so no one or org or agency can grow and build much anymore, without upping costs to keep up. 0 $ people have to make that money to pay rent and mortgage ... provisional ...etc.

I'm getting my first today ... I'm hearing this hydration precautionary from a few different sources. Is there some actual ( at least ) anecdotal accounts where someone got popped in the arm and 10 hours later said, "f*, I wish I had a glass of water" ? I mean is there something very obvious about this that transcends the normalcy that the average person is a nimrod about hydration as a baser health requirement and most operate at a deficit ?? I'm not trying to be snarky incredulous as that succeeds at intimating ... LOL, but I drink a lot of water anyway. So I'm not sure what/where/why the source for that hydrating thing is coming from. I'm thinking it just applies to the common denominator of dehydrated people ...

So are we to gather you implicitly disagree with Universal Basic Income ? The bold statement above, I have noticed this in the past - these sort of 'begging to get people to work at 15/hr' stories are not as uncommon as we may think. Are they real tho? Some of it has to be. I see it my self. I keep seeing 'help wanted!' signs at the entrances of cottage industry level...sort of mom-and-pop outfits ... bodega this and thats. And I wonder if things are as bad as we are seeing in the gallery media portrays - why aren't those ends connecting? I'm not saying UBI isn't necessary or wanted ...etc. However, I do suspect there are other forces not being very well exposed in the on -going art display. interesting -

It is but it’s also in and out in under 24 hours ... fastest synoptic cold pop ever.

This is like we finally got the ice storm Synoptics but just no cold air.

LOL - right You know ... I was thinking about this. It doesn't "seem" like a drought has ever been under foot in New England over the last 18 months. And to be faIr, that U.S. DM chart is rather benign looking to me. Moderate this or that - c'mon. We all know and joke, that's but a training MCS or coastal rainer from being largely a nothing issue. That said, how much relativity is involved with the U.S. DM's determination? I'd love to take a ranked staff member out for a candid cup of coffee and hear about it. I mean, if it's a 10 year deficit, we could get 18 inches of rain in a hurricane and denude all of SNE off the planetary surface with hydro scouring destruction ...and it'd still be a 10 year deficit crippling drought. Right - How does that work. How do they connect the ends of this shit when ( more realistically an exmample: ) you have so-dubbed moderate drought on going, and you get a 4" overnight convective bomb and baseball fields and swing sets under nearby stream flooding and warnings. SO you have flood warnings and drought warning concurrently - got it. LOL

I think that was a the year of that super hot July 4th weekend too. I attended a July 4th party ... people matriculating in started mid afternoon ... and by 3 or so, were taking turns laying down on floors to cool off, in between going back out to the patio to regale in shifts... 103 on the home station. And I think Logan was high 99 chilly degrees under an obscuring cirrus plume. 2017 had that Tsar Bomba ridge from Hades ...but interestingly - little known fact because no one really knows to recall...- even though the geopotential medium verified the ridge reasonably well, we didn't really stuff it with heat as big as it could have been supporting. As it were ...it was hot, real hot to be fair. But just not as hot as a 606 dm closed height contour and surrounding instructive hemispheric dominance could have been. I think I capped out on that at 96/74 here in Ayer which is plenty torrid and dangerous enough for ditch digger work. The reason for that is that the pattern really lacked a SW source getting cough up into it. That's why comparatively lower geopotential medium heat domes have sported 101s at Logan on the gentle WNW dragon fart breezes. It's because there was a Sonoran release of plateau heat that tumbled out into the plains and associated, a 850 mb super kinetically charged air mass,...and if there is a little gradient at all it mixes into the BL lapse rates and you end up with sfc temp plugged into an 800 mb adiabat ...and if you take a 18 C 800 mb Poissonian proper out of that you're filling ERs ... We missed that factor in the 2017 July 4 historic ridge - a distinction not really made aware because it was damn hot enough. Probably you're gonna get that hot one way or the other when heights are so high the Space Shuttle has to goose orbit or it's belly my tickle the top...lol... Just acme cartooning the sentiment but you get the point. Anyway, I've noted that we here in the eastern U.S. have been lucky with the frequency of "killer heat" waves, a frequency that has been on the rise ... France into the lower Urals... sometimes western Russian, even lower Siberia ... Australia... to name a few, have out paced us by a factor of 3 - in fact, I think of only one heat wave that really rivals what they've experience abroad, and it was that 2012 one that was broken by that historic Drechio in the mid Atlantic. That heat wave missed us, here... Yet we've been above normal like everywhere else in our own variant of CC...global warming's footprint. It's just been maintenance above normal. I begin to wonder if New England ever can sustain a Franceonian heat wave. 2017 - to me - suggests it can..? if a SW heat ejection was tangled up in that ordeal, look out! Heat would finally resonate as just as important as cold and blizzard, hurricanes tornadoes and floods. I'm tempted to lie and suggest per capital, heat has killed more than all these others combined, yet it seems oddly "back burner" as a popular aspect.

I've gotten this distinct impression the vaster overwhelming number of times, too yeah.

Looks to me like we have we're destined to a rain anomaly ...spanning the next 30 or so hours. NAM and meso modeling matching rad presentation and ground truth reasonably well... Then, deferring to the globals for the mid ..ext range, it almost appears like we may redux this 2 to 3 day period in general, again day 4 -7. Very similar in the Euro/GFS ... indicating a similarly large synoptic evolution. A wavy frontal structure sets up along the OV to New England... sending rains/convection waves while we play head-games over whether we we warm sector or not ... Unfortunately, given to the tanning of New England butts climatology .. we know how the warm-sector uncertainty will end. In fact, new rule: whenever there is warm sector uncertainty...that automatically equals piece of shit weather. All media Mets putting up their D3-10 outlook has to just say P.O.S., on any day for now on, that looks like a warm sector may be in contention. Anyway, I think the Euro and GFS end up at cold biases on D9 as a perfunctory end result, in on the 00z, but in their day to day uselessness this is also true. They just get to that destination via different bias circuitry. The Euro just automagically adds systemic mechanical power to troughs from no source as a blanket application to it's D5 temporal seam.... tending to do so again at any point there after through the end of it's processing. The GFS on the other hand has bad American dope smoking, test cheating college transcripts as modelers that seem to use physical equations that end up with too much cold/polar side of the westerlies height falls that so f'n irritatingly obvious yet they never fix this shit... Starting at hour 6 and incrementally cooling, it lands on D13 of every model run squarely in the middle of February, regardless of whenever month of the year said model run actually was processed. So, in a neutral PNA at the end of April, there is no hope of any of these guidance actually knowing and understanding the celestial mechanics of the Earth going around the sun at a tilt axis leaning the northern hemisphere toward it ...

Something tells me ... some of the exuberance in starting this thread isn't for the ethic of May coverage, as much as it is really motivated out of the hopes and dreams and visions of crispy tropopause rollin,' positive dis-stroke, wall cloud danglin,' baseball hailers ...training relentlessly 72 dbz rain cores over Tolland CT's crippling drought targeting package - Am I right lol... it's okay - me too

Uh... yeeeeah - I wasn't referring to a heat context ? I may not have my date right - Maybe it was 2001... But, I was speaking in deference to a cold coastal on May 18 that brought noodles and cat paws to Waltham, at 39 F in sheets/wind...while 1.5" of slushy car top accumulations to the Worcester area. At the time of Jerry and my's exchange, yesterday, ...the GFS had just such a look to it's D10 charts. Tongue-in-cheek to mention, but he was surmising that with yesterday's appeal ... it was as though we had really turned a seasonal change, caboosing it with 'though we can't be certain'

I was reading about working out ...like actual aggressive hours at the gym type full sweats...etc. There is apparently no risk in doing that straight through these vax dosing. Regardless of reported side-effects of these doses - but I'd implore people do their own research of course. It's more about the individual and their personal tolerances in discomfort ..etc. If this is true, how bad is that stuff really - .. heh. Unless something really kicks my ass and forces me to couch, I tend to bear it. I've trained my self for years to fight through discomfort "must win, must win" .. hamstrings, lower back tension... calf muscle seizing, general physical recovery rate pain... head colds, Migraines... ? tough shit. I mean, I'm cruel to my self... I push through it all. I makes those work outs where none of this shit is weighting you down, awesome! I mean I'm hearing about fatigue and mild headache, and to me ... it sounds like, "Ooh, mommy - I'm a modern convenience addled pansy-ass pussy with a booboo. Can I have a mollycoddle nappy wappy time out ?" Jokin', but I'm hopefully it won't be significant enough to mean much to me - ...seein' as you ask. LOL.

Yeah...the NAM is hell bent of anchoring the front in its analyzed position (18 z) ...and then sending convection messy waves of lp along it. May be sensy there...not sure. It did well with the overnight rain ball that pressed ESE outta upstate NY ..I was wondering about that yesterday, and well - We'll see... But if that transpires like that, can we ban the Stein talk for a 10 day scorched Earth policy - please... I beg

Lol, speak of the Devil Jerry ... GFS with a day 9 redux of May 18th 2002

Made 70 here ...so far. Day-glow sky opened to actual sunshine about an hour or so ago and we've been spiking nicely . Meanwhile, WPC analyzes the warm/stationary boundary now cutting through CT so they've repositioned N of the 12z by a considerable margin - it was down in central Jersey early this morning. I mean, the sun is trying desperately to homogenize the air mass on either side of said boundary. There are small scud fractal cu moving due N around here, while we have a subtle zephyr from the ESE ( guessing on that low level direction.) But like Brain intimated earlier...the DP here is up to 57 now at 71/57 is a different sensible universe - Feels like late May.

Yeah I was just looking at that... I hadn't gone to that public URL recently but ... I am not sure that isn't part of last weekend's 'weekly dip' ? I've also noticed that the weekends have been falsely sending optimism in this regard - ha. Anyway, I wonder if that survives the week.

OH...heh... yeah, replace - I thought that was Friday for some reason

I knew someone would pick up on the tongue-in-cheek of that stuff... I just think there's almost an embarrassment of conceit going on ...like humanity knows! And all this shit is real? and people are willing to dive on swords for it - nice. And the funny part is, if there is a disingenuous reporting that is blanketing qualification truths under a common heading ... that is divisive to do that to a common plebeian sort of class of people dependent upon over-arcing policy makers at a civility scope and scale. It's manipulative for one... uh, yar it is! So why ...safety.. ? Perhaps. I mean, if we stop and explain it, it may be too late? That ship sailed months and months ago, as air apparent the urgency waned. No, my grandfather .. that cantankerous 'matter-of-facto' early to mid last Century no-nonsense republican ... ( of which is a dying breed and really is not a part of the modality of the present day GOP... ) used to say, "follow the money". Is some thing, some one's some where gaining from this "impact impression" making.

I love that ... cuz, of course - at 12:00:01 AM Saturday morning it is suddenly vastly safer than it was a the dreaded moment of 11:59:59 Friday night They should have it like ...every 5 minutes, between now and 11:59:59 PM Friday... you are allowed to move your mask down another 2 millimeters. So very slowly over time ... more and more nostril gets exposed... then, just the top of the upper lip.. It'll be weird Friday afternoon, with all these masked expose half an open mouth as the top edge of masks slowly are allow to creep down... but stick with it! Because by supper, half the bottom lip will finally be available for BJs again.. . ...because virus abide these mask rules and time statutes, no doubt!

You know... napkin arithmetic - according to NRP's website ... 232 million single dose have been administered... while the U.S. pop is in the ballpark of 332.5 million disgusting bags of pestilence - lol That seems to flat out suggest, just shy of 70% of the population has ~ 75% protection already ( I read that 70+% .. if it is wrong, don't lampoon me already) ... It is noted that the booster/2nd shot pushes that 90+ etc... Now...I have also read that there is a 230 to 280 spread ( million ) is the modeled magic HI range where the pathogenicity of this thing immediately runs out reaching spreading targets... blah blah.. so, assume for the sake of discussion 250 million. Since we are approximating ... 232 is close enough to 250 ( and both are between 230 and 280..), it seems that if assume an even distribution ( which we can't making this whole post moot LOL ), That means that the magic range has 75% protection already. so, ...it gets into a murky probability and statistics math but ... it seems intuitive that we should already be observing a drop in daily new cases.