Typhoon Tip

We were 74-77’s in DP pretty common throughout the lower Lakes yesterday and continues to be the case approaching mid day. Synoptically this air mass is the source for back east.

NAM is doing the same thing it always does in heat .. it shirks Logan until the last minute. I think Logan gives LGA a run for the money on this heat tomorrow and the next day, even though it's buckin' for a 3 F lower max

I'm in Michigan this week... We were 91 here southern lower Michigan yeserday, with 76 dps, and it was brutal until a splash-out linear complex weakened through but ( thankfully ) brought us out of Hades. It was close to 9 pm and 86/77. 72/66 after the trees swayed ahh This is your air mass... coming on a WSW/SW trajectory, and you may or may not benefit from the latter processing. I suspect it ends up being about similar to the June heat wave between the 25th and 30th looking at everything. This one actually has better lower tropospheric parameters by a little even; if up to that alone I'd figure for a 2 click MOS bust and 102. But that one benefitted from being within solar max, which we are passed. That, and hydro integration my keep the temp edged in favor of climo/MOS. If this was June 15 I'd say y'all be 102 tomorrow or Friday at least at one or two sites. Don't know about only 'warm' sun and dice rolling cloud patches in huge theta-e.

It is interesting that this is occurring despite the flow construct over North America. Personally I am not sure I have ever seen that/this... With a -3 SD, full-on R-wave anomaly rolling through mid latitudes of the Canadian shield, supplanting the flow into a broad trough actually [ not the 'ridged curvature' more typical at these sort of hydrostatic heights and 850s/EML type phenomenon ] between IA-ME. The southern edge of this L/W trough arc is actually expressing the 590 ( 590! ) into cyclonic curvature. That's strange. The EML remnant Sonoran release and the 850 mb kinetic plume are all passing under the trough like a submarine. I suggest this is an expanded HC example with a polar R-wave ( unusually amplified ) gliding over top the 40th latitude. Welcome to Tennessee ... The Euro operational was indicating this potential some 7 or 8 days ago. I thought it was typically attempting to offset a heat wave pattern with it's own modeling bias to amp - the two sort of situated in conflict when at the time/range it was depicting. Technically it may be arguable ... it could be a compressed ridge, but said polar westerlies, in which case it could be considered in both directions to be fair. But it's an unusual look.

"...there likely is/are aspects of import there. ." And, CNN does engage in rhetoric shock-jock headlines to bate clicks - yes they do... so, knowing that - it's up to the reader to keep that in mind. That's all -

I'm suspicious of these CPC derivatives ... It's complex, but I suspect the HC expansion phenomenon is giving them a boost, while this planetary wave # oscillates through. The inundation of higher non-hydrostatic heights are over-lapping/invading the lower domain/latitudes of the PNA domain, out over the areal expanse of the central/E Pacific is evident. Farther east, there is a balancing geostrophic forcing to nadir the flow E of ~ 100 or so W over mid latitudes of N/A; numerically that is a demonstrative +PNA. Things get interesting considering constructive numerical interference. You have probaby a legit modest PNA, but with an expanded HC phenomenon in place the two may be artificially inflating the numbers. Looking at the operational runs/versions recently, it may also help to explain a sub-540 dm massive, albeit transient, SPV anachronistically passing over the Canadian shield, while 594 dm heights astride the Mid Atlantic. That's unusual in August, atoning for the +PNA, but the whole construct is also displaced N ... thing a submarine diving below the depth-charges, the trough is deep in y-coordinate, while gliding over at higher latitudes. Consequently, we are feeding/slipping +20C 850 mb air masses under the southern edge of that trough belly clear to New England late this week. You don't typically see 21C at 850 in a well mixed lower troposphere over Albany during a historically +PNA derivatives.

mmm... and it'll get even more and more accurate in it's ability to do so if this ( typical CNN-hyperbole +fact) / 2 ...is even half right "That is due in part to the breakneck pace at which the planet has been recently warming, faster than scientists have previously observed. Since 2018, when the panel published a special report on the significance of 1.5-degrees, greenhouse gas emissions have continued mostly unabated and have pushed global temperatures higher." https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/09/world/global-climate-change-report-un-ipcc/index.html

" 'We have zero years left to avoid dangerous climate change,' expert says " That's a CNN headline/ content sourcing. That needs to be considered ... but, https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/09/world/global-climate-change-report-un-ipcc/index.html ...once one has filtrated through the necessary incendiary rhetorical fire-suppression system, there likely is/are aspects of import there.

As of last check we're back up to 130 K c/d as of late - so she's almost half way correct already...

There needs to be regulation/FCC and crackdown. Journalistic Integrity and practice parted company years ago and it is down right audaciously so now. Corporations/people seem incapable of enforcing ethics upon themselves - particularly in the area of media. Instead, rely upon mangled interpretation of Free Speech to continue operating in bomb of equivocation, masquerading as fact, and with tsunamis there simply is no time to evaluate for by shear volume. The "IMC" ( Industrial Media Complex ...) knows this and leverages it so they can traumatize people even more into clicking mouses, swiping smart phones, or pinging channels on their TVs. So long as they make their bottom lines. In an ideal world - for me - there should be a taxation levied against all media industry for vaccines and healthy care. That's straighten them out in a hurry.

Through both indirect and direct geo-physical various circuitry ...the following article probably is more connected/suitable for this thread. Example, "..Complex interplays between the AMOC and North Atlantic sea-ice cover in conjunction with salinity and circulation changes have been proposed as physical causes underlying the DO cycles..." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01097-4.epdf?sharing_token=qWMQcnRcVRZQmZ_yahYbd9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0ODQw4Na6S4LwvIIwjZ_S3NdBoG6pi8c5NBfIwoUKp1VK_OHHszXMnB3OMoyz8L8emOhG-hoDsJyn1YMubz_IampYbIRg_8P9vjnfIPPzRQwm6m9BfwEGfoLu0JsB4E2trSfyu4r947mOz1oZQlyxQxZLxaMkEINR4Wt7XEIrPrRkahci-lKgCSTZahFzlH7wM%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com "...Here, a robust and general early-warning indicator for forthcoming critical transitions is introduced..." c/o above - I'd also point out that we in the field began involved in conjecture as well as reading formulated papers/science on the subect matter all the way back to the early 1990s. Really interesting embedded statements, like: "...Different lines of evidence from palaeoclimate proxy records indicate that Northern Hemisphere temperatures have varied abruptly at millennial time scales during previous glacial episodes, with corresponding changes of the AMOC between its weak and strong modes1,15,16...."

You know... it's another way among many - take a nitpick at which ever doctrine - in which the genius of the Constitution's language engineers, in order to formulate a code more free of ambiguity ... could not have in fact foreseen how technology ( and it really is a technological influence -related matter. Oh yes it is! ) would make so many of those turn of phrases increasingly obsolete. Ha! "Best laid plans" - seems like a whopper example for that aphorism. The 2nd amendment used for guns permeating society, ... the reasoning foundation for that Amendment mmm it doesn't really apply in the same spirit, nor a very realistic risk assessing in society/culture. But, that's a debate for a different internet fight. People can't just say, "I want to shoot shit and feel secure and powerful behind my weapon," can they? 'Cause... that's not the spirit of the amendments cause and writ; yet that's the evading truth of the battle there. Seems like Human's have this weird need to do that in every conflict: evade the truth of their wants and motivations at all times, then...asses if it's safe to admit, ...they reveal later on what it was they REALLY wanted all along. Here, how does the Government as a representation of the society population, impose sticking needles with a foreign substance into the arms of a 1763 philosopher's arm. Now that's an interesting case right there... I don't think there is much language anywhere in the constitution that leverages against unvaxxed, frankly. In fact, constitutional law "could" be interpreted as 2nd Amen invocation against the "Armed Militia" LOL

"....Prolonged close contact with others" - is that the new euphemism for that now ?

I've heard that 'Decapitall' can be an effective management tool for that as well -

This/that look's sort of been in the deck since last week's guidance.. yeah. it's occasionally extended east ... but hey! I'm in Michigan next week See, I'm like George on "Steinfeld" - I give up looking and that's when the peregrinations of life seem to miraculously just put me in a position for it. We'll see if she actually bites -

C'mon ... you focused on a parametric some 300 light years from the visible horizon edge of the expanding Cosmos on that one .. There was no way that was going make it from a D12 outlook, that many days, without emergent reality intervening LOL. you know that - And yes, it is hard to get an EML here that isn't at mininum polluted by meshing the continental miasma into it, or processed by other convection first, or somehow sneaking through the devil's gate of the perennial N/A pattern, which features a NW tendency over the Lakes that shunts it south. These are like 'white men can't jump' for us ... But once in while, one comes long like that odd-ball guy from Canada. And 1953 slam dunks. As an aside, it's why I think 1953 is probably the rarest return rate anomaly we've experienced since codifying N/A ( specifically ... New England) weather phenomenon into their respective OMG categories. I bet you it is slightly more % in favor of seeing a Feb 1978 blizzard redux - in fact I'm certain of that. You are in the wrong arena for the sport you like to play in - I've said this to you a dozen times, I know

Kinda both right from what I'm seeing from the Euro cluster - ... I see where Steve is coming from. It's not just the look of it, the 'music' sort of wants to resolve the next measure into a nadir flow over the Lakes OV- NE axis. Seems we are establishing that as foundation rather early... so we can snow by Halloween ..etc..etc.. That oughta earn me some likes from any web-handle with snow as a syllable. No sooner did the consensus arrive all set and square and settled that we would in fact flip August back to AN, that models seemed to choose that moment to begin a warm-august cancel-culture campaign... The EPS says the Euro has merit. As such, by D10, the op. version wends the pattern right back into the unusual, rather robustly amplified +PNAP ... ( look out Nevada, California perhaps up into Washington and Oregon for some dangerous heat again; and lookout the rest of the nation for smoke loading) The GEFs, while obviously rolling eyes .. does not agree so much with that idea though. Admittedly, it doesn't have persistence on its side. And I also have hypothesis as to why the Euro is doing this R-wave structured look at a time of the year when it is anachronistic. ...which is HC related + heat dome forcing geostrophic bulge in the west... forget it - But here's the odd thing, despite that thematic arc, the Euor does first time a W. N/A heat ejection down stream during the D5-6-7 under a trough that is high in latitude. It's like the heat is submarining the trough. I see this in that guidance a lot, frankly. Never tested it, though. But sometimes it does this where it gets a big heat 850 kinetic layer caught under a trough saddle like that... It's interesting. But, if so that's really a straight up heat wave this next Wed Thur and Fri, with the only preventative being cloud contamination. +20C at 850 at 18z each of those days with WSW or SW flow well established and no antecedent wash of cool air to cause light-wind difficult to erode out inversion shit. As an aside, I always felt some of those cool days in July benefited from that oddity. The 850s were out of line with the llv results ...kind of used rain to cheat the month colder than the thermal state of the atmosphere much of the time. Normal July sun would have been a mid 80s month. Anyway, that's just a nice solid heat wave look. More clouds is 88/73 ... but climo on clouds in SWs flow typically ends up better than modeled ceiling RH so it's probably more like 92 to 94 as a conservative estimate those days. Tl;dr for a mundane topic, I know.

wow...different universe of weather this morning.

It’s interesting how singled out SNE has been island off and shit stuffed like as sewage catch basin this summer. Seems like I’ve seen NYC and BTV sunny by 1 pm while ORH stays butt stuffed till sunset at least 10 times now

Lol "Breaking News: More restrictions on cheeseburgers loom as variant cases continue to surge ..."

Nothing about what the medical profession professed early on is wrong. Probability-wise, obese people were, and still are, .. more likely to flounder. Problem is .. there's no one way or the other in nature; the average person of modernity seems to have lost sight of the simple fact that everything takes place on a probability curve. Thin persons are in big trouble too - just not as much. I keep hearing/read people say things like, "yeah, but so-and-so skinny marathoner ..." as though that abases the original warning. You know? Morons are trying to abase the science of this thing at least excuse imagined. Personally, I often wonder if some if not a lot of the deeper real motivation for doing so, is so as to not have to admit to shit ( namely, how much theirs stinks in a lot of cases). This disease in a lot of symbolic ways is a disease of the opulent abundance of human kind at this point in our history. At all scales that is - at minimum - symbolic, like .. over crowding and surplus population in those regions where this problem ignited, was thus favored and fueled to spread by abundance of targets. It's probably indirect - 2nd ...3rd order in 'equations of culpability' if we will. Let's call it immoral while we are at it. The morality of survival has been achieved, but we obfuscate that truth by iniquity in society constructs that are entirely self-imposed/chosen. Getting into hippy shit - Communes don't work either. I keep coming back to humans need humility. The Pompeii's of history tended to set things right by exposing sloth and entitlement. Part of evolution I suppose ... times of advancing celebration needs the cruel indifference of set backs.

You know .. there's an obscure sort of cultural irony about this obesity link with vulnerability and risk factoring and C-19 We just went through this whole meme-ing sort of social-awareness over the last half decade or so, anti-bullying and not shading of body-types ... Showing up everywhere. Entertainment to the commercial breaks in between, lit and cinema.... unlikely match-making ( so much for 5 meets 5 ) this, or giant people dancing in music videos with syncopated rhythmic Kumbaya next to clear 9's... The whole spectrum of shade and shame as though culture failing was evaluating; time for nlightenment as to the value of the soul, for the first time at in Americana if not the world of western image-based culture; considered shame in its self, to shame... And finally ... that sort of look is appreciated and has its place - sort of ( it's a crock ) What happens immediately in succession ? Pandemic eats those that eat -

My biological hypothesis about evolution, when including infectious diseases ...is that children cull the herd of weaker adults - Their imperfect little still developing immune systems mutate something going around the community ...and then that more pernicious strain then takes out the weaker adults so that the adults can't have babies with inheritable/congenital weaker immune systems. So ...the next war, they should put all the babies on the front line and watch the opposing army all drop dead - the ultimate biological weapon. BABIES ... heh. It's just that every single one of my friends ...all of them ... said they didn't know what it was like to be feebled by illness until they put their kids through day-care!

Imperfect immune systems can do the same -

Nothing in nature or weather for that matter happens at the speed of Millennial's instant-gratification expectation time. Lol Everyone knows what 'this is over soon' means that is lucid and realistic. It's ending now S to N ...