Typhoon Tip

Well... we'd have to physically calculate the difference between radiative budget, versus mechanical cooling source - that latter skews the cooling amount. See, in that case of 'lower els' ... that's drainage and accumulation, due to basin phenomenon ..blah blah ... But what we were talking about is strictly the black-body thermal storing/environmental caching as possible reason for lower DP warm nocturnal nights, during residual pattern ( i.e., unchanging in the latter sense ) .

Which I'm okay with ...by the way...

you know it's funny ... I check the "Worldometer" daily COVID cases ... if for morbid, just to see if there's any hope... () Yeah, the case loads are painfully slowly dropping as a longer termed trend. It's sort of 2 steps down, 1 step back up...3 steps down, 4 steps back up, 2 steps down two days in a row, 1 step back , 2 step down, 1 step back... But in the scalar daily numbers, we are this week showing more daily cases than we were BEFORE masks became a millionaire over night cottage industry. Yet, from meme to the IMC ( Industrial Media Complex) and in between there's now this wanton fervency for ridding of mask - 'just can't wait any longer' ? We were not born with masks. 750,000 years of Human biological immune system evolution never needed them, otherwise, ... As much as we conceit we are not apart of those natural signals ( called bow-wow instincts - yeah, ...we're all just sophisticated f'n dogs man), we are showing the instinct to 'get it off!' Put a mask on a house cat and watch what it does ? ...What we are doing now is just the sophisticated frantic swipe and churling mews ... it just happens to be spread out over a mere performance that makes us perpetuate our belief in control over our domain. Because in pure numbers, ...if it was enough to trigger the mask frenzy at the front side, we should be removing masks in 2034 - LOL. Kidding of course... I mean, yeah - we know more about the transmission of this thing and have more empirical -based awareness of what it does at the individual level... integrating to the whole, that tends to assuage policies given time. sure.. But, you can't tell me this isn't hypocrisy to "get if off - I don't care what the cost," to some degree.

Yeah cuz I was just thinking about this further. A 'radiation budget' and the physicality of an environmental setting, 'might' play a role ... I mused up there about the 96/31, typical lower Saharan diurnal spread of desert air, as being inconsistent with that idea but hold on for a second: It occurs to me, ...that's not really a very proficient black body example. The desert is white and pale sand and dust. These surfaces heat up, but also do not store as much radiative heat - such that at night, they don't have as much radiation to give back to the kinetic temperature of the atmosphere - so the cooling momentum is larger and out 'weights' in that sense, the restorative availability - temp plummets. Interesting... I think there may be something to that. Contrasting, ...if we are in absence of CAA in an otherwise dry air mass over American soils and physical settings, we are far more proficiently storing radiative energy from insolation during preceding afternoons - and thus have much more in in the nocturnal cycle to radiate back. I don't know - it's as good a hypothesis as any. If the dark body objects.. foliage and so forth, all store more thermal energy during the day, a clear night has to radiate more. Such that after a couple ... few days, the ground is gaining more and more energy than can be completely emitted away ..so there is a net thermal gain after repetitive days of it. That "might" offer an explanation for the "kinetically charged" dry air phenomenon we are scratching heads over - ... why after a few days, the same DP stays warmer suddenly. It could just be black-body storage phenomenon

Mmmm yeeeeah I'd not take that to the bank - no way. ... I mean, we grew up in New England's "Pulp Fiction" basement scene, spring horror ... Sorry, that above cannot be bankable. I was looking things over with a smirk and thinking, yeah ...it's warm days on the Euro but anytime we see a +1 SD velocity northwest mid level flow/jet stream hosing SE from mid latitude Ontario to over the lower Maritimes, that's usually an automatic BD genesis at some point or the other. I mean, the model tries to maintain that structure as a 'laminar' flow with no perturbations or 'bumps' in the stream, for days? A this range ... good luck! Granted, that is just the 00z run ... We could be on the cusp of a series of runs that show less vestigial -NAO ( which is what that is, btw - a tussle between the -PNA trying to overwhelm the circuitry across the country, while the NAO imposes some sort of subtle blocking that's less than more obvious at the same time... ). I mean in fairness they intimated as much, "..if current trends hold" so we'll see. It's almost like to separate probability curves though.. lol. Like, all that modeling is one, ..then, the other probably of just being b- f*ed... Those seem to be driven along by different physical processes. hahahaha

Yup ... particularly in these pattern "seam" nights like this ? Basically... in three nights, it can be clear all it wants, even still maintaining a rather low DP ...RH ... and the temp stalls at a 47 everywhere. Yesterday, whimsy with words I denoted this as "kinetically charged nocturnal lows" .... trying to sort of 'cartoon' describe it when it seems you can keep lows from falling sometimes, without the obvious DP assist. It just seems like there is something more to nocturnal lows than just DP ... It's like sometimes - not sure why or if this is even real ...anecdotal - a DP of 39 under the same observable synoptic metrics stalls everyone higher ...but those same calm winds and clear ceilings and DPs like last night, over-achieve by several... I've hypothesized that the atmosphere not including WV ...also has some vestigial thermal cache if perhaps several days of processing. But than that doesn't make sense at all when we consider that deserts routinely go from sub freezing to very hot in afternoons. So yeah... I guess I don't have a f'n clue on this one LOL

In fact re the country-side flora ... the sugar maple - type species are noticeably fuller in the leaf bloom just since yesterday. It's like we went from 1/3 unfurl to 1/2 or even 2/3rds in the one night. I wonder about the temperature sensitivity relationship in vegetation ...if single preceding day's/weather patterns can trigger a specific night of robust recovery. Interesting. I mean it could just be coincidence, but yesterday really 'felt' more like shorts weather ( thought I kept with two layers and pants like a middle aged noog lol ..) anyway, and the leaves were tinier. I remember thinking about this, too - then this morning they clearly and discernably seem more open/bigger ...casting more like real shadows on the ground.

Got chillier last night than I thought it would. Bradley CT, Nashua NH and Bedford MA all pinged 39 - decoupling's a 'cast killer. But, it's also warmer by hour this morning's recovery than I imagined, too - 69 already here as of 9:15 am with a few 70 even ... home stations dappled about. Fithchburg MA is 66 at 9: am, and Boston knocks the door of 70 too if not already there. 76 incoming ... The sounding exposes this as a weird scenario, actually. I mean 500 mb thicknesses are still chilly, mid 540s... You don't typically see temperatures bathing the surface in mid or even upper 70s along with/under that metrical condition - more like a triple nickels dm thickness for that range. It's like the warmth is stacked in the bottom of the atmosphere ... It's making the conditions unstable. LI's reflect that being down to 0 to +2 range .... Low DPs are probably making parcels invisible - lol... Like invisible CB.. kidding. But, we might still observer some crispy pop-cornies ... The very superb heating conditions with no cloud, and purer air in absence of any offsetting CAA anywhere is probably going to cap temp early, and then bounce around on the thermometer, this steals 10ths of a degree as it erodes it's way up to 77 in few spots maybe. Basically ...anatomy of utopia

Thing is I like motorcycles in general concept. I just don’t like that they are used as ego boosters ... I don’t like how those in ‘the look’ are supposed to personify this non conformed care free image ... yet they care enough to go out of their way to affect an image - you’re a hypocritical full-of-yourself asshole trying to force people to give you attention. Nothing else. I can’t trust other drivers, either. And I have to admit every time I am immediately behind a motorcyclist some part of my internal monologue, says “oh f* now I got to deal with this guy”. It shouldn’t be any different than any other vehicle but I’m sorry it just is when you see that person exposed like that… I don’t know I just don’t want to give people yet additional reason to have internal monologue about me

What is meant by tested positive in India when in context of having been vaccinated tho positive means nothing ... vaccinated people will be asymptomatic carries. Vaccines don’t stop particles from going up ur nose.

yeah...I mean what - are we supposed to do again, wear dog tags with immunization crimped into them now? Waltz into a place ... "yo vaccinated" and that's it ? Prediction - all out brawls. Some will waltz in, 'hey, are you vaccina -" cut off, " F you !!

Definitely something dodgy is ... wth

Yeah ... feed the complacency. 'Well if we can lower guard - ' ...that's how the 51% population thinks in my cynical world lol

wait, I thought the CDC just announced no masks outside - what?

Yeah...that's the one ... it was 2010, not 2012 ..

I go through that solar angst at the other end, too, but opposite direction... It's why I prefer my ensuing seasons "front loaded" ? Like, I'd rather pop winter a week after Halloween and have it be snowy through the end of January... Claim a positive seasonal snow result by Jan 30 ...and I don't really care what it does in February. That's sounds absurd, I know - considering our climate and the beefiest bad-ass-iest bombs of lore and yore have always happened pretty much after Feb 2nd ... (unless it's Dec '92) so, yeah, in fairness, I'll rejoin if it's worthy. Otherwise, ...the sun f's up even Feb too. The closest I experienced this was in fact ...fairly I'd say above the 90% achievement, 1995... We mix- jobbed a 3-5er matte down and froze it solid around Nov 9 up there in the Merrimack Valley at school, and didn't see bare ground until the big thaw at the end of Jan... Nickle and dime snow events with steadily more ridiculous cold. I remember hip to shoulder high snow banks down the street from WHDH in downtown Boston, in 9 F cold, with the snow squealing under sidewalk footfalls ..it was around the 15th of December. That's how you run a front loaded winter. I mean if it's still 60 F shorts weather at T.G....I'm like great, days get longer in a month and we're still not killing the tomatoes? I almost think it is easier for our area to do front loaded winters than front loaded summers. I remember 1995 and a handful of contender winters ...2008 ..2010 maybe ..but only one summer, 2012.. It was ludicrously warm in March and that sort of just kept up... we had 96 day, May 20something with a meso over town at night.

69 .. 70 at most home sites... I still suggest if the sun keeps up with reclamation of the firmament .. we may pop a shockingly important 74

Mm ... 'Wiz' and I have been elaborating about the cool mid level lagging look for these days through Saturday since the day before yesterday - ... It may be focused this morning along an axis, though, enhancing matters. But we are seeing the expected improvements as that broader based dark bottoms are gone and what's out there looks more fractal cu and debris in nature. So... halt humanity and stop the Earth spinning while we figure out this inCREdibly urgent subject matter -

Yeah... I just posted the most likely reason for that - least why I think... There are some height rises moving down from your neck of the woods and we may see some improving skies sweep this way after 2 or so. It's amazing how riveting the weather is to talk about right now, huh. lol

Not a bad analysis actually... I'm noticing at a more discrete level that there is a subtle declination in the 500 mb heights passing through between 12z and 18z ...and as that exits south and heights rise just that little bit ..we may see the skies improve 2-5 pm ...

It's a 'non-accessible' one, too - I mean, pancaking at 11:15 to noon means there's probably a 650 mb layer CIN going on ... so we can't tap the free lift part of the sounding at real mid levels. I'm just ready for a pattern change. We've been running along with a frigid spring pattern, yet putting up average temperatures ... for a month now. It gets old -

It's interesting to see the Euro and GFS switch positions on the mid range ...now, looking at D5 ..6, it is the GFS that has consistently offered a more progressive vibe with the heights exiting through the Maritimes ... limiting the backward calving wave look/and Euro certitude for N-dooring/BD air masses gumming up spring yet more ...ugh. Thing is, Euro has our unique butt boning climate on its side... But the GFS has now taken to the Euro's look from 3 days ago regarding that - back then, the Euro was the one with the more progressive vibe and the GFS was diving the heights in from the N. The GEFs show about 2/3rds more like the operational, and about 1/3 of those 33 member lodging a cut-off near the region. Fort shits and giggles the 12z ICON solution looks cat paw-like over eastern zones D7 ... while that synoptic layout supports was 86 in Michigan ... 70 N of Maine... I mean, really? - why do these runs have to run out like NCEP is doing this on purposefully to f* Worcester...? Gotta give credit to the forces of fate and destiny in having that be that location's name because it's clearly the "Worced" g-damned place to live on Earth in May lol

Uh, ...who cares ? just life preoccupation hazards.. I'm not that important - It was consuming helping my aging parents situate for their lengthening years. Their home was a white elephant on the spread-sheets and was beginning to fall apart. They don't have economic history to dump funds into a big bloated property that frankly, they were way, way overdue for normal downsizing of overhead, anyway. They now live in Michigan - like...wtf retires to "Militia-again" of all places. But, they happened to have a property already paid off out there so ... it was an ordeal to re-lo them out there. 'Sides, we have family still around western Michigan so their right at home there too - I was also lucky enough to be picked up by a publishing house and they wanted stuff. I have some work out there and they want more. I have to write short-story fiction for an anthology due mid august..and I'm working on the camping trip with Covid vaccine zombies coming through the woods - kidding. I spend waaaaay too much time writing in these social media bloviation when I should be checking out for a long while and focusing energy there. I just don't presently have as much gumption for it all; I have lost a lot of confidence in it. The world is moving away from attention spans for novel or saga reading - it's a Twit-sphere by twits... No one even seems as capable of subtle nuance and double entendre... droll humor, or any in the myriad of literary mechanics used to make that activity fun - it's just not knowable in the direction the world is going. Plus... I find it difficult to conjure up fiction as appealing, or competitive with the shear elaborate lunacy that humanity is either discovering about the universe, or ... causing themselves as man-made events and histrionics - either. It's like truth realy IS f'n stranger ...too strange as a matter of fact, for fiction. Amid all that.. I started getting memos sent from the town about the Fort Devens retired military base that astrides my neighborhood, as having been leaching dioxins and chromium solvents into the region, comforting gems like, "Although surface soil is likely safe, deeper ground well-water access is - z y z" Uh, I guess that's okay as I don't use well-water...but heh - I just don't like Ayer. I have a main train line running by my house like 200 foot way. It's a four track line that's been getting used as a switch yard... and I just feel weird about growing next to that calamity while dodging scrotal-nodule health warnings by the local municipality... etc..etc.. "Cucumbers for sale!" I'd love to live in a high tech bubble surrounded by 1000 acres of pristinely un-man-f'ed land - it in-turn is surrounded by a 30 ft ivy-covered wall of genetically engineered toxic-to-the-touch species ( heart stops immediately...) - maybe a genetically modified variant of poison ivy. 'Beware the shiny leaves'

In fact, ... I haven't personally been into gardening now in four years as I've got other projects going on .. but, back when I was heavily into it, ...this would be my week to put in 'kittens' - my term for house/window sill sprouts or if/when lazy, hitting the local green house/nurseries. I "think" given the trends of operational runs, ens means, and the other environmental obviousness ...it all holistically hearkens to the real opening into the growing season and I'd be planting ... Folks should have rotated in their seasonal fertilization and soil/PH balancing back in early April..etc. Looks like 75/48 for 4 days ... but zippo of stress cold. I might wait another week on Cucumbers. They don't like their nights below 52 .. We'll have to see beyond - the last two cycles of the Euro have been cutting the flow backward over eastern Canada ...roughly 120 hours through D8... Have to nod to climate on that one. It's hard for me given my experiencing this asshole geography in the spring, ever getting 10 straight days of guaranteed 75/50 ... Having a N-door or BD series interrupt and claim a chunk seems to fit timing - if not the symbology of us paying dearly for four beautiful days as if it is our fault the atmosphere was nice to us - haha... We'll see.. But the larger synoptic foot-print seems to want to extend the -PNA telecon signal through mid latitudes of N/A, with modest to moderate positive anomalies wobbling over the OV ...so, we may lob backside early warmth in the deeper extended. That's also climate friendly as a total evolution... nice 3 days, BD butt bang for 2... then it gets hot. I'm also wondering if the GGEM's idea of "continental folding" has merit because we've seen that pretty commonly in recent springs... where we end up with a couple days of tepid 850s from BOS-DCA..with mixed EML and very warm lapse rate potential air mass conveyor ending up over the St. Lawrence. PF to Phinny stealing the early heat show again?

Yup ...most local graphs are doing that same aspect/ratio with the very steeply inclined slope lol. Now 64-66 home stations and MW/Utah has FIT that high too - already 33-ish spreads... Has that cap temp feel to it where it ceilings early then bounces 71 to 73 all afternoon. May be a late high? Like 5:45 everyone pings 75 as the long day tries to diurnally process the lower thickness up a notch just before sloping sun pulls the rug out... But tonight has the first clear night elevated kinetic air look to it...it may not get much below 55 in urban settings - its the same effect as 80 in downtown Boston on July 10 when it's 64 out in the cranberry bogs...