Typhoon Tip

Reputation and character perception mean something in politics, though. The idea of Gov Baker falling behind Cuomo's mandate mmm that assumption may have just taken a big hit, based upon the day's revelations. Apparently, the D.A. finds enough credible evidence that he's probably losing his nuts-in-public-opinion and being neutered of power here shortly.. He'll get his day in court but ... things aren't looking good for that dude. Not sure Baker will wantonly align behind mandates that were instrumentalized by a narcissist/sociopath fondler - even if exonerated, it's too late. Politics is perception - almost entirely... Our society doesn't provide pathways to redemption. And Baker and gang's political weight won't willingly be lightened by the erosive power of agreeing with the likes of an asshole

It's too bad FSU ( c/o Dr Robert Hart ) doesn't carry the cyclone phase for the NAM solutions. It would be interesting ... I suspect the mid Atlantic spin up is a diabatic/latent heat release/grid scale feed back monster that would also show up as a quasi-symmetric warm core ( though edged in favor of subtropical of course...), but would be faux in the first place if the low doesn't really exist. The thing is ...the NAM solution is not IMpossible. The model doesn't ultimately assess solutions out in time that can't happen- wouldn't be much use as any kind of prognostic tool if that were the case. Although, LOL, the model doesn't much so for any time beyond 36 hours most of the time but that's another story of reasons. Anyway, with deterministic Met ...the objective forecaster considers all solutions. It's just that the acumen is in deciding which one's are probabilistically better seated, and then tabling the others in lieu of those solutions/blends. In this case, I tend to think that the NAM is wrong - but I could be. Haha. But, part of the reason is because it has a history of zealous W/neary coastal interface deepening. I keep thinking back to June when a very similar evolution took place. WAR pushing west, pushed an anticedent/vestigial front back NW, and the NAM kept running these low nodes/QPF bombs along it. None of which verified.

Yup... it's been doing it on every run. spinning up little cyclone nodes on the warm retrograding front - pretty clearly diabatic garbage. But each one then positively feeds back and over rains/QPF...blah blah. It exhibited this exact same behavior at these same sort of time leads, when this very similar scenario of retro WAR pushing the boundary back took place in June. It didn't verify very well. just sayn' Also, the NAM is too cool on SE side of the post boundary environment, from PHL-BOS on Thursday imho. If the boundary washes out and is NW when that happens, the I-95 is probably 84/73.

You guys ever try anchovies on thin crust ? man … there’s a brick open oven joint in town here, “Sorrentos” … insane suck pepperoni savory goodness … sauce is authentic - never sweetened so not to interfere with the cheese meat juices .. all on thin smoke charred insanity. Anchovies added? No words. ‘course … one way ticket to hell if you got gout and hypertension cause of all the uric acid and salt but ya know … calculate your risks - it’s worth it as a treat

Heaviest rain rate perhaps of the convective season. Man that up the coast retrograding warm front has that upper bound PWAT green rain curtain look in the NAM - NAM did that also back in June when that similar ordeal played out tho. The physics in that model trying to close off eddies along the warm boundary from embedded convective nodes - creating its own feed back mechanics that gooses QPF; it smacks as the same thing. Wouldn’t shock me if that’s much less but regional reintroduction to the warm soup. Might briefly take on a Bahamas blue pattern as that front smears through while losing identity … In fact hard pressed to see where/how that rich theta-e then advects out. That’s a reentrance no exit synopsis out there.

mm... this represents a disconcerting question, perhaps lack of 'projection' ability in an abstract area of population "repulse dynamics" - whatever the f one wants to call it. What this will cause is surge in disgruntled ..eventually even violence, as people begin to feel violated on multiple levels, and then ostracized after the fact then becomes persecution - at an unconscious sort of level ... it's a quagmire of backfire risk there. But, the man is suspect over the last 9 months of narcissistic personality tendencies so, makes sense that he might forward this kind of "sensitive" projection.

Recreational Snow Vehicles are huge in the Netherlands. I'm surprised it took so long to come to 40 N in the U.S.

It's not going to "end" in that sense, though, anyway - sardonics aside for a moment. I mean, in what context does one mean end ? SAR-2 will change into subsequent versions but the essence is here forever. That's not ending. What needs to end is a preconception, or conceit really ...that humans are separate and entirely self-guiding, with total proxy over the biology of the world ( I'm saying that in the extreme sense to make the point..). So long as this misconception lubes the gears of reactionism, intruding into lives with tedious micromanagement will continue to fu-up and take any joy out of discrete affairs. But more likely ... people will realize this and soft revolt will cancel it out like the cultural zealots are attempting to dehumanize us with already. Longer bloviation: Once that happens and proverbial attention has turned asunder ... that's just as good as ending. But the physical reality of this illness' presence is never ending - now if we wanna get into future genomic mutation and changing forms and blah blah ... Okay, but again, that's not ending. We seem to have come to a point in techno-sociological evolution/feed-back on attitudes and opinions, where we are above the natural forces on a planet where we are 100% sucking off the environmental teat for existence. Okay, so easing the metaphor even more annoying further, if the milk is soured to our taste, yeah...we can change the flavor by vaccines and masks and distancing and whatever, as much as we like, but we still have to drink the sour milk. Sorry for the wax-philo-babble sermon but it frustrates me to no end when all of this we do, ... we do to ourselves. All of it. If we did nothing, and 500,000,000 died, that would have been a choice, too. People lose sight of that difference between an evolutionary biological imperative, versus the prevarication of imperative painted by hyperbole ... And I do think that on some level that hyperbole feeds back in influencing the evolution of policy. Yuck ... f you! We are delusional in our industrial bubble of convenience now over too many generations. The gestalt is in place now that is disconnected from real nature so far that we come up with plausibility in policy and act unaware of consequence.

Mm yeah not sure. I've been pussy-AWIPsed before but that's about it.

Is that product available from the ensemble mean

I was thinking along the lines of D3 - 14 frankly ...ha. Like in general. Perhaps more so next week, sure. Longer version: What's going on at a hemispheric scope is that the westerlies are pulling ... abandoning the previous look. The GFS ( typically...) left a trough baggage dangling as that happens. In somewhat contrast the Euro was more interested in 'filling' it in, and eventually flipping the wave sig and emerging a more impressive eastern ridge pervasive. Again, the Euro may be over-doing that specific aspect. The GFS seems to have edged in favor of the Euro though...so, that subtle move .. it's like it plays head games and tempts us. LOL. No but I think a 60/40 blend perhaps? That does situate a week long period of MCS look to me. that's all

what's interesting for me as this product's loop demos ..there are actually two TCs in genesis and tow through the basin over the course. that seems like a so-what in a vacuum, but i've noticed over the years - anecdotally ... - that TCs that succeed the journey without being pulled N and getting gobbled up by the westerlies early, seem to be preceded by a separate entity out ahead - sort of clearing and prepping the land for the road crew. ha. in this sense, it's not the lead system that we watch, it's the following one that developed a bit S and may - likely/theoretically ... - benefit from the predecessor's wake stability; it helps keep the second entity nicely/safely tucked beneath and sheltered from influences from the westerlies that 'would have otherwise' induced the earlier turn. sacrificial lamb, so that the 2nd system Maria's it's way up into the western Basin

Wiz' ... I think we're too focused ( friendly criticism ) wrt detailing aspects ...looking and depending and reliant on details that are pretty equally probabilistic to set up, more or less, in either direction, for D4- 7 I think the general circulation mode suggest thunder chance, and we can worry about whether details will formulate in/on time, as the overal period gets underway. If the overarching structure transpires, even say a 50/50 slop blend of the operational Euro/GFS ... I think you run the potential of MCS' in there. That's a west flow at 500 mb ( that is modestly faster than normal, too - ) over top a 700 mb WSW flow and an 850 mb SW flow. That is an inherently geostrophic unstable scenario where impossible-to-define located theta-e axis tend to situate, and probably MCS umbilical and feed off them as they conveyor along. I mean it's a general theme at least to me that seems supported.

Something I don't like about a 'big heat' signal out of this outlook period in question. I mentioned three factors yesterday that are still in play imho - It helps that the GFS is 10% some -odd trended in favor I suppose, but it's flatter overall still. The Euro tends to over-amplify everything through some magnifying lens ... roughly D5-7 ... It tends to take whatever it is handling around D3.5 and 4.5 ... 5, and just arbitrarily applies some 20+% audacity to the charts. Suddenly a flat ridge novas a bit... Or a weak impulse up over N Manitoba circa D3 ... deriving power from the unknown ( here we go again), if the base-line pattern is even slightly +PNAP mode the Euro somehow torques the entire hemisphere around a defining R-wave event, calving out a core closed cyclone down 5 contours beneath history over Maine three days later... zaggeratin' to make the point. It's modest at times ..but the operational version does tend to "wash" the charts at the temporal seam where mid range fades to the extended. It could be basing out the flow too far in the west on D6 as it applies its 'cleaning,' ..and that concomitantly sends heights and 850s and everything ballooning over eastern America. Not sure...

Yeah .. Hopefully the following pun actually ruins someone's day but ... it should be "air" apparent when looking at the overall synoptic parametric evolution, combined with experience, that there can be as much as a 10 F cold bias with that stupid built in buzz kill. It's interesting that this seems to only work with summer and diurnal heating ( day ). It seems the imperfections are centered in the modulating in of solar into the daily noise - the models don't resolve that. In the winter, ( ...uh, I'm talking to the general reader at the moment ), the advection terms have more proxy over the temp .. It's why during cold outbreaks sometimes, particularly nearing 40 N and above latitudes, the coldest temperature can even occur at 1pm in full sun. The sun is overwhelmed by the planetary signal. I mean for extremer cold invasion deals. I nice 1033 mb high with a DP of -10 cresting overhead on January 4th over a sparkling snow pack overnight will cease engines from turning over just fine the next morning. But the models won't error 2-meter raw temps for cold in that/these sort of scenarios. It's just that for some reason, a +20C 850 mb layer passing in from the W with off-shore light flow, no clouds, sends the Euro 4pm surface temps to an eye-popping 89 F at Logan pretty ruitinely at D7. The other aspect is that the raw 2-meter temp error that Forkness points out ..it's all time-dependent. The raws values are almost exact at D0+ 12 hrs. Or at least much better. There's probably aspects about the modeling tech we don't know that are taking place in operation.

Actually .. hm. I might have been a bit too damped in my interpretation of the MJO wave. It's just that the RMM diagram is a mess right now. The individual models vs their ensemble are making cobwebs out of the plots. I was too focused on the recent verified weak wave propagation through the Phase 4-6 region that is typically correlated with hurricane toxicology heh. But at closer look and fairness, there presently a 'weak' emergent signal going on circa late phase 8 -2 ... That region does tend to corroborate better with Atlantic deep layer mechanics. Namely ... tending to lowering shear over all with upper level divergence. But emphasize weak... I mean it's a paltry signal - so far. It could get stronger. The PDF guys wrote that Personally I wonder if the MJO as forcing larger scale phenomenon is being rattled by the HC shit too - but that's another popsicle headache. I mean, over the years I see them making statements like this a lot, "...• Other modes, including a Kelvin wave that moved ahead of the main MJO convective envelope and is now over the East Pacific and the low frequency state over the Pacific are increasingly interfering with the MJO signal...." A statement from last week. We'll see what they think tomorrow.

Obviously y'all been onto this fledgling signal for a few days ...all credits duly conferred etc etc.. But, this morning behold! We bear witness to an occurrence seldom ever observed. It's the operational Euro model that sees a TC, most importantly before it actually exists. The Euro model is funny like that. It's like the Johnny Come Lately model. It does none of the work but then tells everyone how the shows going to go once they've tediously grind it out and succeeded in finally producing the thing. But here ... it seems the Euro cluster is leading that production effort. As Ineedsnow was nice enough to post there's been ensemble clatter; this time the operational version looks CV caney even. Seriously, it's weird though...the MJO numerics are not in favor of this, yet the 200mb velocity anomalies are. Christ... yet again, a large scale planetary 'reasonably' dependable statistical method appears to be operating/signaling in fracture. ...maybe. I mean the CMC has no clue right now, and that model has always dependably incapable of handling the temptation of so much as a cumulus cloud out there without creating a black hole that sucks the Earth completely into a Cat 7 singularity... The fact that it doesn't see anything at al - a lot of all this is performance asynchronous coming/considering these disparate sources. Interesting test for the Euro cluster -

I'm open to suggestion .. I'm not sure I get it/understand the connection between vaccinated population obligatory-atoning for un-vaccinated population ? can that be explained to me. I'm curious what other points of view are on that specific ( sort of ..) morally ambiguous responsibility. Vaccinated are those that have done their part to ensure macro safety; to mandate them in order to protect those whom by their own election ( in the vaster majority ) refuse, is an imposition. I'm sure there are those that are Kumbaya about it all and are willing to do so.. .but, ( imho - ) masks are not part of the biological imperative of human existence. So which is the greater imposition ? I guess I'm tipping my hat as to my own attitude/answer to the question with this ending question. Granted there are rare exceptions, where one may not be able to take a vaccine - those individuals are excessively remote compared to the numbers/vitality of the whole, and because of their small numbers ... they/that really should not present any kind of logistical challenge in managing their safety. So...just if we can exclude those exceptions - I'm not sure anyone vaccinated should be required, either by ethics or logic, to do anything.

Seems I recall an article or two.. .perhaps television over the last whence discussing the unlikelihood of ever actually achieving "herd immunity". Dissenting attitudes and social distrust morass that runs rampant throughout the ever-schismatic zeitgeists ( ..uh, culturally fracturing - ) are forces not likely to overcome; combining with logistical challenges inherent to to 'reaching' so many enclaves with vaccine and survivor numbers, when dealing with 7 1/2 billion population mass, makes doing that fuzzy. These were conceptualized... Well ? here we are ?

not sure any of that's "likely" to happen imho It's possible - but there are a few counter -arguments to that Euro jazz, enough so to not be very confident that's not just a model long range hallucination/..enhancing amplitude thing. One, the models does that. Two, the PNA ... yeah yeah yeah less correlative at this time of year, but this sort of concerted Satan comes to earth signal is tough to ignore: ...that's a historic scale of that index, definitely relative to August... And, excessively concerted - meaning all members agree! So, it's a battle between hypothesis of less season confidence, vs so much overwhelming monstrosity as to make one a dipshit if they ignore. Good luck...that ain't no warm signal. Three, persistence... persistence hasn't been demoed yet as being really broken down, and so that puts the onus on the models to not be screwing that up, and when those looks above don't support said models... that doesn't lend confidence that this is very real. So we'll see... The only hemispheric telecon that supports is the NAO... which is tough to rely upon in winter for that matter, let alone now.

Wait..was this the unaided eye, too ?

This is different then what took place last June. This is both non-hydrostatic ridge highs over arching a lower tropospheric, western/SW heat ejection. Sonoran release... We saw near historic heights in that regard in two distinct periods in June, and neither one had that kinetically charge air layer park into it. This time is trying to time that. But we don't have quite as high as non-hydrostatic heights. We are passing the solar max on Aug 8 ... first couple weeks aft it probably still gets redic hot ( obviously ..duh) but, it's not the same as getting it on July 10 say. So, the summer's is kind of asshole for that. LOL It's always something to fu it up. Either the heights are high enough, but the SW heat ejection isn't there. Or we get that but it ends up in a saturate warm sector with 80F DPs and little sun.

Right - Rob Gronkowski is obese according to the standard BMI metric. It's shit science. The only things that matters are your blood pressure ( and diastolic is more important than systolic), blood panel lipid spectrum, liver function, hereditary factors. If these essentials are healthy and you weight 320 lb, BMI is meaningless. In fact, you can negotiate with the those 4 if say 2.5 of them are even decent Lol.

Anecdotal: I've never been a very big fan of the 'lost sense of smell and taste' metric as a definitive in this thing. While it is certainly true that a bout with this thing brings that with it... my entire life, every time I've had a headcold since my childhood, I've experienced at a minimum some attenuation of those senses, if not total, for some transience. Too wit: Rhino Virus, to which the head cold is attributed ... is in the caronavirus family - those in charge of disseminating information to the media, if perhaps the media itself, knew this all along - yes they f'ing did! But no - don't tell the masses. Just leverage lost senses angle - it's disgusting. So now ... for the next 50 years and 2.5 generations of zeitgeist morphology, whenever any someone thinks their food boring it's off to COVID cause and guess what? - be it direct or indirect connection, big pharma gets to make money. This thing is a cash-cow societal engine now - LOL