Typhoon Tip

Wild digression but humanity has benefited from a relative environmental quiescence over recent Millennia that has allowed them to flourish and excel; unlimited or encumbered, this allowed for leaps forward in making many advances of fragile technology and so forth ... A fragility that otherwise, resources and brain trust through the vicissitudes of generations probably would not have culminated to even seeing an era of "Moore's Law" ... but rather redirected in the daily toil against a harsher realm of constant threat. And there's probably analog for that type of positive feed-back that is not just relevant to computer chip capacitance ( Moore's Law), but can be defined for a much broader spectrum of technology - to which advancing medicine surely fits. ...Because despite Sumatra and Japan, and the occasional super cyclone ... or killer heat wave, or over touted Pandemic ..etc..etc... by and large the 'Earth hasn't moved' - so to speak. CC may change that... But until that is the case, it has allowed our specie to rise to the prominent dominator. We've transfered proxy of pure Darwinism into our choice. We now decide, so our conceit would believe and have it. We've re-imagined this version known as "Capital Darwinism" ... Those with the strongest retirement portfolio are more attractive to the opposite sex, for example ( not absolutely ...but tendencies and cultural design..etc.). The wealthier have access to healthier intrinsic life-styles, and can afford the better medicine ...and are thus inherently better positioned to longer life expectancy ...I life during which, contrary to the BS of those that don't have any money, ... are in fact actually blessed by masturbatory existence in wealth surplus orgasmic utopia. Nah, nah, nah-nah, nah Anyway, ..that would be the ultimate super Bond villain, huh... the ultimate fascist move - anyone that can afford the medicine gets over the super pathogen that was invented on an island somewhere ... everyone else? That dystopian Clansian-Crichton mash up dystopian thriller doesn't end well for. So not only do we transform Darwinism in mans' vision, we then actually machine that process deliberately. ...oooh, cree- ee- pee

It's an interesting addition there ... There's been advances - apparently ... - in these 'protease inhibitors' that show promise .. Don't quote me of course and the usual incredulity should apply - but it may be worth folks doing their own research? As - can't recall who - posted several days ago, the Montreal Gazette broke news of that subject matter. But,I have heard about this research in paper sniffing over at NCBI public accesss in the past so I know that the science is real. HIV suppression, namely... etc. It's probably a matter of time that our earlier life lessens regarding virus management in medicine becomes outmoded. When we were knee high to thigh in size, the state of the art was: if you are sick you cannot cure a viral infection, but you can prevent via vaccine. In basic concept... was the limitation. That may not be true for ever. This vax shit may be a rendered a silly aspect of primitive medicine ... Although, they'll make those pills like 1200 a pop probably - heh

That's yeah right that's been the deal - mentioned this myself that it's difficult to get a bead on this and even see a pattern. Seems to be crossed up metrics and utterly scatter plotted ..graphically. 75 and 80 years of age respectively, and my parents - neither - noticed any symptom of any kind from either doses. One is propped up by modern pharma, and the other doesn't have comorbs ...other than his age. My 42 year-old sister has zero comorb's ...is in good shape. Eats organic vegetarian... doesn't engage in dip shit life styles. KO'ed to couch for two days - she's a college professor too, remote ..so it was a fiasco. A college buddy is 49 ... no co-morbids. Social drinker ..but with wife and kid ...that's getting to be more rare for life style. Enjoys a good cigar once in a while but isn't a 'smoker' by fair distinction. No symptom from either doses. 'not sure what it was supposed to do to me, frankly,' he said in text, '...I feel like it shoulda done something from what I'm hearing and wonder if I got a bad dose' I'm scheduled to potentially f-up my weekend the day after tomorrow. 6 pm. I shoulda scheduled for Monday so I could bag the next work day instead of bagging my Saturday - LOL

Same down at this end of Rt poop ... The southern amorphous 'edge' to this overrunning axis/ceiling shit is like right on the Rt 2 ... Partly to mostly sunny S; hate and misery N. The morning sun is sloped below that tilt axis but as it rises ...if this were to remain fixed it would rise into the ceiling and we'd end up cloudy by 5 miles - LOL... I'm pretty sure the memo is going around to make sure that happens... Make sure our barred window vantage peers out of from a cold clammy cell, over-looking a parade of sun -bathed sexy celebrities and free spirited joyous good looking people eating noodle salad... But, like yesterday cleaned out with the sun apparently helping to homogenize...I'm wondering if we may see some improvements along this axis ...and the southern extend of it gets more fractured with sky lights and so forth. This air mass here is unusual for NE of warm fronts at the end of April. Normal climate has a +PP N ...that came in around 4 pm yesterday...and flags are still wobbling under low level slate strata just enough to know that we are in a prison. That didn't happen. There is no high up north intruding. The 00z Euros surface pressure pattern really spreads out more of a 'COL' north of the warm front - basically non- descript forcing so light and variable wind, which isn't transporting cold and rhea... I'm curious how the sun interacts with this air mass -

Yeah, exactly .. I was 81 at five different home sites within a two clicks of mi casa here in Ayer and while I'd never phone in these dork's station temps ( lol, with love ), ... usually they're representative enough. I dunno. It seems when we get those c.h. days ... the tarmac official numbers are an annoying perfunctory 1.4 F below Wunder's mean ...every time. That sorta/form of consistency argues there is an industry standard calibration error on at least once side of that debate. LOL...

The Euro vs GFS That mid range is definitively different depending on which guidance one sides with there. D3.5 - 6 ~ The Euro has smoother, less noisy westerlies riding over the shallow ridge... but it's cleaner and allows less cloud/precip contamination. The GFS's noise with shrapnel trigging everything it can ... seems to culminate in ablating the ridge and heights and thickness S and .. gee, I wonder if we are seeing sort of 'why,' or perhaps the origin in why the GFS tends to lower heights too much on the polar side of the westerlies - it's because it's fabricating too much of ablation from these fractals. ...interesting. Whatever the cause, the Euro's less perturbed over deep layer continental laminar warm flow is offering a couple days of 80 out there ... The GFS looks upper 60s and showery. Mixed opinions on the Euro's extended. It's got an interior slush and cat-paw coastal thing .. two schools: One, it dubiously gets to that set up; it looks to very predictably do what it tends to do in that range, over amp the flow. It's got a vague trough leading in the mid west, and somehow it doubles its mechanical forcing in the flow without much kinematic roots upstream in the flow - that's the models bias at work... If so, it'll now spend the next 6 cycles of runs backing off. The 2nd thinking is that snow, or atmospheres supporting snow, have occurred in some ten May's since the year 2000. If the last 20 years were the climate inference ...we cannot ignore the possibility altogether. It's really like the last 20 years suggests we have a 50/50 shot at this in the first two weeks of May at some point or the other, but this particular Euro method won't likely be where/how that comes to pass.

I'm not sure this backyard home station networking means anything to that discussion - I'm sure he's speaking in deference to 'officiated' results. But, I've seen 80 on enough homes stations on Wunder's network a couple of times this month in/along these tucked towns between here (Ayer ) down to Worcester ...to wonder if it's been 80 where civility counts.

Sat loop suggests we clear even in the E ...~ S of a EEN-ASH type axis. But I suspect with high hot sun boiling the llv moisture left in place, and some modest positive shear in the area...if that band between the Pike and Rt 2 does get appreciable solar skies may destruct in convection ... In fact, that may be the case anywhere the sun cleaves through or continues to shine. Regional LIs are -2 or -3 ...and the sounding isn't really capped. Triggers may be lacking ... I'm noticing that even tho band between the decaying mid level deck in C-NE and the area N of NYC resides on the cool side of the warm/stationary front, the wind is light and not showing a lot of impetus in moving from E to W. Typical BD mechanics are not really part of this. Modest positive anomalies at 850s lurk well N ...indicating this air mass is shallow under an oblique warm frontal slope. -marine contamination within shore hauls of the eastern coast ..10 clicks inland maybe. There really isn't very much higher surface pressure N of Maine doing the more typical damming and BD chilly low level jet. That changes the map a little on whether those CT zones can warm up significantly ... and it may also allow of more sfc heating realization between the Pike and Rt 2 as well. Logan may be 54 F while it's 64 F as near as protected nooks up Arlington Heights, ...and 74 out near FIT... 84 at HFD/BDL *IF* the present sat trends hold. Obviously more convective sequencing would limit

Maybe elevated lows weighting the results ?

Helicity in the area tomorrow

Just gonna make tomorrow that much more annoying...

just going to comment on that - yup ... same up here along Rt 2 in Mass. In fact, it was 58, 2 hours ago.. but the cloud stopped back building over the elevation caps and sun took over, and an impressive temp surge hard to say if it is all sun. I think the warm boundary has made it into the region ... if diffusive in nature. I mean it's not being analyzed that way at WPC but ... that kind of surge after 2 pm can happen but it usually requires an air mass change assist. interesting.. 71 now... 13 up in basically an hour and a half.

You know I was at the gym last night... doing my usual. I go to that gym every day when outdoors doesn't permit - which sort of puts it in my ID that it belongs to me? Which is BS of course...but I log the most hours there nonetheless. I wear a mask ...'cept, when doing aerobic... Treadmill, Elliptical ... Peleton cycling... the mask may slip down unknowing ...'cause when you're on min 45 and the end is in sight you may not even feel it any more. Normal not to... A couple of times someone, usually a 62 year old ( right ~ in that age group ) gets in your face and 'makes sure' you pull up your mask so it properly this and that... They don't work there. You've never seen that person before. What is it about that generation - I just fantasize punching their face and as they are vaguely conscious and bleeding from the nose ... asking what was more dangerous: was it covid 19, or putting their ****ing self-righteous unsolicited mug in my work out space to enforce a policy that is frankly still in a process of scientific discovery ?? Hmm... 'which one you busted nose superiority complex' I mean this asshole was particularly egregious ...instead of losing it, I just apologized obsequiously and said that it slipped down, and he made some crinkled brow gesture that I couldn't quite tell the full nature of which because of what you said - he was hiding his face. But he also gestured with his hand in a jerk movement, which smacked as agitated when I said it - like he's taking a risk... I mean, there are those not like me that will punch his face.. They end up on the evening news of course but...I have seen the mask related Jerry Springer bang outs ...

I'm encountering similar statements everywhere, actually .... we should probably take this/these posts over to the Banter thread ... but, I wonder if the distancing and masking and the general lack of contact and what hygiene has been implement... may have offset the frequency of other back ground "normal" infection rates. I have been thinking about this - we have to get Colds once in a while - even if we are asymptomatic ...the presence of immune activation is a vital aspect to overall immuno-health - duh..I mean we learn this in 8th grade Health elective - ..but, we are getting a dearth in numbers and occurrences in the 'white noised' statistics of the civility ... It may not matter ? Or, we could be setting up for a couple of waves of misery as we "catch up" - and the scare over whether it is this C-19 varient shit is going to be ad nauseam ( pun intended )

... three days ago - lol...

I write science fiction and have been published and I can tell you ... it is actually difficult to premise a sci-fi tech that out gawks the actual shit we are seeing these days - so... that 'fail' is not hard to do. ahahaha But yeah... how about, "Cryopocalypse" lol But I like 'sanitizing theater' .... Phin and I were musing a couple weeks ago about this "virtue signaling" shit ... You know, pulling up a mask when someone eye-balls you from the other side of the gym or hall as you pass by. It's a sub-class of the same affectation people feel they now have to do to deflect nosy self-appointed cleanliness nuns. I bet their kids never masturbate and grow up sociopaths, too.. OH yeah ...a great deal of hygienic awareness and sanitation is necessary - I'm not saying people should eat an Italian sub with black cake under their fingernails or anything ... but the 'obsessive compulsive' nature of it is a distinction that ... actually science is beginning to materialize, may cause more harm then good.

Personal conjecture .. so tfwiw: A slow death ... in fact, it may not entirely go away. There is likely ( imho) to be residual, elevated readiness that to some appears to teeter with compulsion ... - it won't be a perspective and practice shared by everyone or their affiliations, evenly, either. So there's that joyous vitriol to look forward to. So it's a bit of hypothesis but there seems to be a smoldering aspect of "social distrust" about this whole thing, as well. Most that possess a modicum of realism are well passed the lunacy of whether this thing was real or not. But ... they don't trust the media, and by media that includes all. The "Industrial Media Complex" ( I euphemistically refer..), to social medias like, well, this one and et al... Nor do they really trust the urban rumor mills, either. How can we? That probably doesn't lend to believing the risk is ultimately ever going to return to any pre- C-19' perception and practice, no. That's one factor among many... The other aspect is being warned by environmental science that we are probably passing over a threshold. Over-population, festering amid Climate-Change-forced biota drift/ species migration... These combine for loading unfamiliar infectious agencies at a faster adaptation rate than the new environment is capable of responding. And that 'out-pacing' is the whole loss of that battle. Those lend to new pathogenic scares, in the least ... if not unleashing new pathogenicity. And frankly.. that's not scare tactics - that's real. So some readiness and preparedness has to be remain in vigil - That probably doesn't mean we need to be fastidiously running around after everyone and lowering fertility with weird chemicals and causing tumors as germaphobic dim wits, no. That level of extremeness may ease off - ...in fact, much of that may never have been necessary ...

It's one of those days where every time you look at this image above... say once per half hour ... it looks discernibly better ( as in clearer ), yet, the sky over you never seems to change and the sun has no direct shadows. ...it's like deliberately waiting to the last possible gasp of cloud to make sure it's maximized the depth of butt banging the afternoon - lol

In southern New England ?

Even down in north -central PA it's doing this... You can see a stationary cloud production axis and the resulting saturated ceiling layer is a shit streak blotting out the sky over NYC some 150 miles away

It's comical ... we get a bust to keep it cold today ... and tomorrow, the NAM will be right! thus... we always "GET" to be cold - yay! just what we wanted - lol

Lol... I almost want to split my residency between ... any-f'um-where-else but here from mid April until late October, then return for winter. I bet if you took our specific location and compared it to every other point around the hemisphere at this latitude, we would find that this shit only happens here

If that convection doesn't form like the NAM has for overnight ... as I annotated above ... it may bust the other direction tomorrow - long shot.

Looping the hi res vis ...the cloud production is clearly elevation caused - these have an obvious orographic forcing aspect to them. It seems perhaps the low level resolution/ topographical featuring is the reason for the error/bust by models ... we have a WNW flow bumping over the elevations blah blah. Even the NAM's meshing missed this effect: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined