Typhoon Tip

Echoing Ryan's sentiments up there... The PTown outbreak probably resulted from a uniquely concentrated scenario, skewing rate or breakthrough cases to look worse in terms of risk than it will be or is, for the more normal population dispersion. That's A B, the vaccines were never supposed to provide absolute protection. ..short memories... In fact, there was always advice that if a breakthrough happens (..and it was warned that would happen hello! ) the vaccine would lower the probability that the infection would result in hospitalization and death. So far, nothing about that PT outbreak really is inconsistent with these statements. That all said.. wtf! There seems to be a goddamn entitled to utopia thing going on in people. Folks, the worlds sucks and you are going to die! Pick how... This whole f'ing C19 thing won't die, not because COVID won't go away. NO! It won't die because of this is this f'ed up conceit of entitlement to a no-worries care free existence people think they are somehow owed for living. I hope everyone gets. period. Sorry just pissed off.. but really Humility is the pathway to both enlightenment and salvation.

Nah mm not sure I agree here. The fact that anyone would make a statement the likes of which so egregiously challenges conventional plausibility, and is in fact almost impossible, probably means he hyper serious about something - for one, not having any respect for the audience. I understand what you meant/mean, and how the turn of phrase, 'not a serious person,' is a cutesy little euphemism for dumb f'ck asshole... But in his case, he's marketing for big pharma by attempting some poorly veiled example of gaslighting people's fear so they'll run out and get "Pfifed"

mm, almost wonder. if we'd spared the region 3" of deluge last night, would this have been 74/52 or even 76/51 with more sun. That's kind of high dp for that the t measure. course, you're elevation may play roll - who knows.

Mm people should keep in mind, ....and, more people have died in history for causes rooted in some for of symbolism than any other causes combined. Virtue signaling is entirely symbolic.

Which (intuition+ world history) / 2 = not very sustainable over the long run ... but we'll see.

All presidents hear voices in their head ...I mean, ears. ( heh) A president is only as good as his/her appointed committee of internal advisors and their functional ecumenical outreach and work-acumen in/with/among the various representatives of the grander industrial mecca. This is all obvious to 8th grade Social Studies, but the reality of that station in society is not about the president... It is the presidency. That's the gamble of the presidential hopeful's rise to power and the devil dealing - They get all the credit when "approval ratings" have 'em exalted as a Pharaoh. Unfortunately, they take the blame when the vicissitudes mount.

This idea of partially damming viral transmission streams against a flood of typical weekend social engagements? mm, yeah, that is more apt to occur as a policy decision than doing so on a random Tuesday, sure -

Meh... we are all just molecules in a test tube of the gods, in this huge techno-sociological experiment. Heh. I love metaphors that make no sense to people. Just saying that we are unwittingly doing this as a social experiment. One that takes place, because it can - really. It's an evolutionary step. Humanity simply couldn't do this in 1918-1920's Spanish Flu outbreak. Hadn't yet evolved the wherewithal. In fact, we couldn't really do it as recently as 1967-1969's whatever that was ... We might have been able to do so in the 2003 and again, 2013 SARs but those 'pandemics' seem to fail before a pan-Global organized reaction could logistically be tested. Which is what all this is. I extolled the virtue of this 15 months ago ... but since people see my handle+any post and they tend to auto skip nowadays for whatever reason ( probably my fault ), no one either saw it, ... much less remembers. But, this is the first time the entire sovereign membership of Humanity, all in their disparate causes, practices and principles, agreed on a course of action that did not require a WORLD WAR. It is, in essence, the first time we attempt life, instead of death, as a species. Now that's an interesting study in anthropology, ... but, it really is one that is fundamentally made possible, almost entirely because of technology. It is a direct example of how technology feeds-back on the tribe - so to speak. But, it is relavent to me here, because as Phin mentions, "dark turning point" - or words to that affect/effect, it's really not in my estimation about that 'darkness,' or dystopia ..it's more like it has to happen because of the experimental process. This is all going to have positive ( advancements) and set backs in perception. And it may ultimately fail - yup. That's true too. When did any attempt at any scale of Humanity, great or small, succeed on the first try? Yet, we risk failing with enough power to be ... well - heh, swift and complete in consequence. Leave it at that. That's kind of a scary prospect but ... evolution is scary. Because guess what ? 99.99 % of all species that emerged from primordial states to have a lease on this world, no longer exist. So, usually, the experiments fail. Let us hope history and statistics don't count this time. LOL ( at least I think 'lol')

Yeah..it's a like "petty poetic justice" for the posting antics among the marauders of anti summer spin. You know, those that have such a winter co-dependent, psycho babble need to experience cold and snow, warm, summery tactilities actually causes them pain. Lol - Actually, after that Halloween winter of 2012 "finally" ended, and spring came in as it should by mid November that year ... we actually had DJF not too hugely dissimilar to what your hyperbole approaches. I remember weekend after weekend after weekend with 54 F in tepid sloped sun casting long shadows up snowless fairways doing disk golf with buddies, in cargo shorts and waste-tied-off-sweat shirts because ...it just wasn't cold enough to don them. I'm sure there were periods in there of inclement weather ...hell, maybe snow. But the dominating longer termed appeal was striking enough that we only remember that as the year without a winter - no one wants to even float that sentiment. Gee I wonder why - I think it was long about the end of January that year, "The Onion" had a headline that read essence of the like, "Rare 32 F temperature strikes Northern New York State" ...with their particular incisive satire in 'breaking news' .

I think it interesting that despite all these 10 to 15" monthly rain total posts there really isn't an ongoing river-out-of-banks scenario throughout the pan -SNE region. Other than a few incident, transient quick reponder -type tributaries - all we have to show for this 'drama' is the July anomaly of lush green lawn. Call CNN! It shows how hard it is to actually flood this old geology. I mean point being, what it takes to 'flood' here. You need truly absurd things to happen to make it amazing. Like October 1996, or May 2005 ( Merrimack), or March 2010. ...or going further back. 1987 ..1930s...etc. They were amazing, but only just - October '96 was a unique scenario of a TC being partially stripping away by a synoptic interaction. Reminded me on satellite of deep field Astronomy. Some doomed gravity bound star being elongated and pulled into an intake channel, this TC schmuck's guts got dumped over E and SE zones. I think Winchester had clocked 10" in a single night in that one. May 2005 was extraordinary along the Merrimack. As someone who went to school at UML and I can tell you, the specter of that visage as the water rose so high was gasping. It was certainly never seen before, personally. I remember the 15 to 22" Pawtucket dam and how that fall- draft was no longer falling water. It had become but a surface dent like a macrocosm of water moving over a boulders in a stream? Same behavior but so much mass you don't exist. It sort of had that creepy feel to it ... like that scene in "TItanic" in the engine room when the iron piston cinema combined with the audio presentation were so overwhelming. March 2010 had decent snow-melt-back to snow oscillations through the antecedent months of winter. And then came March. Actually, technically the onslaught began at the end of February, with a retrograde coastal that rained ...but not as much as the real heavy onslaught, which came in three events 4-6" each spanning three weeks, exquisitely timed with said ground release. One spectacle that was particularly awesome, a friend and I were en route to Mohegan Sun in CT. As Rt 13 I think it was ... cut over the top of a pine forest, from that vantage, the entire expanse of forest floor was water tumbling over rocks and old wood detritus. Granted, these are in general anecdotal accounting. Just off the top of one's memory. Each one of these events took place because of exceedingly rare return rate scenarios. Yet, not many of them did that kind of extra-special damage you see around the world. It didn't do Europe ( recently ..) for example. Although I'm sure some offended bloke with a town or backyard impact memory will try to lean a post content against the weight of this statement. But no. Not really. Not saying it can't happen - but it's like our snow pack thing. It's very difficult to exceed 36" inches for elevations below say 700 feet. I have lived all over eastern Mass for the past 35 years, and never have seen the snow pack approach 40" ...and have only seen that once, and 36" occurred twice. Something always happens to neuter a scenario down. We get our big events, but the irony is, the rarest of all, ... probably that 1953 Worcester tornado in the relative scale, is the most extraordinary thing to ever have happened here. Maybe rarer yet ...in 1755 an Earthquake estimated between 6.3 and 6.7 occurred not 20 Mi E of Cape Ann where the Merrimack Valley, which is the surface vestige of supposed dormant fault, plunges into the Atlantic abyss. That occurred, mind you ..., 150 years before brick and mortar, steal and glass serrated city sky-lines.

Well that's true - their product is information, regardless of whether the prefix "miss" should be attached to the beginning, that is what they proffer, but they do it for money. Money money money. It's a business. Period. ( Not preaching to you per se just the straw person...) And, money moves how money moves. Otherwise, ... THEY DO NOT HAVE A BUSINESS So, in every business arrangement ..there is a marketer, and a purchaser. Remove the destination, ...removes the business relationship, and money no longer moves. This so-obvious-a-monkey-could-spell-it-out is really a reflection of we the people, in order to form a more perfect union ...lust for drama to the point where [apparently] enough population not only wants it ... their is even addictive patterning to it. This actually is the veneer in the whole examination done by 60 min a few years ago, about the e-tropic addiction problem associated with tech. It really opens just a Pandora's box of sociological issues ...blah blah... ( also, check out the "Social Dilemma" on NETFLIX ) But straw men and women make up a huge population and that is a sufficient pool to keep the IMC rich and the rest of us pining for truth that is caused to be missed.

CNN so taken for anti-gospel buuut... this is amusing. They have a couple of a headlined side-car articles there - or did as of an hour ago not sure now - where apparently people are ashamed of stipulating/acquiescing and getting the vaccine in some of those ...well, they politicize everything like the good little ratings whores they are. If any of it is true, the article reads that people are actually disguising themselves as someone else, and then getting the vaccine while in the disguise. ha ha ha Omg... tears laughing ..that is awesome. The hypocrisy is so deliciously douchy - and simple minded ... No doubt, they go right from the vaccine site to some derivative of an anti-vaxxer pep rally where they proffer conspiracy theories, while their little cultural island of petty cynics are impressed with their articulation. that is - if CNN hasn't just made this up -

As far as I've been trying to assess ... ... we still have not yet at a society scope and scale, proven that "humanity" is even done the right thing with this management and 'proxy' over this thing. Remember early on? There was a speculation that we would not actually stop this thing, but only extend it's "pandemia" phase. In 1918 ..the Spanish Flu broke out and by 18 months ...other than pockets of frets and starts it was by and large a done deal and handed off to the future of Inf A/B ..etc. This? is at 18 months and it's teetering on those earlier visions that went something like, "...we're only going to succeed at protracting this thing longer.." ( the dreamy creamy profit slut lust hope of the "Industrial Media Complex" btw - ) The vaccines came in time - so it was thought. But now with those experiencing social stigma within their little cultural islands, in aggregate, presenting enough population ballast to keep the target pool large enough, this protraction aspect is kinda being tested still.

That's my point ... yeah. The "polar domain" as a whole is more important in said solar connection then the NAO sub-space that is modulated too much by synoptic vagaries. Guess I could have just said that - heh. As far as the 'rather have neg NAO' to each his own on that. I have done my own study and the majority of significant events were not associated with NAO's that were < -.5 and were in fact, rising at the time or within a week of significant event passage - which makes sense anyway, because the storms bring there bag of negative heights up there into the graveyard and that sends the NAO up in index mode, while it translates through..etc... Circling back the first sentence concept: in the exmple, the NAO just got sent through a modality that had nothing to do with solar. That 70% thing though ...I wonder, would the 70% improve(reduce) percentage when time lags is applied. The reason I ask is a basic model inference: The AO drops --> the westerlies descend in latitude --> blocking nodes evolve above the ring of the westerlies in the WPO-EPO-NAO regions ( Eurasia notwithstanding...). But that all takes time... who knows how long. It may even vary therein. Like the AO could be triggering this, but the these sub-spaces still haven't responded ...and on and so on. Or, maybe time lag is already considered in that 70% in this is an unnecessary question -lol

Covid zero .. riiight another f'ed up example of hubris if any sovereignty thinks that can be realized or managed - our species is not the biological gods in its fledgling technological presence on this world that it attempts, or by actions purports to be. not yet anyway ... that may be an achievement distinction in some distant future utopian sci-fi vision - if a Fermi Paradox explanation doesn't "manifest" first.. heh. maybe all this is just a preamble - like a first stop along a bio-Terra-forming experimental journey. That's an interesting thought ... why does Terra forming have to just mean climate.

The problem with the NAO in this analysis - for me ... - is that it is not really physically motivated into modes by super sets of forcing ( such as extra-terrestrial/solar... ) nearly as readily as it is by planetary wave modulation taking place in vastly shorter time and spans of synoptic vagaries. Start with the AO ( would be my argument; not meant as gospel -) The AO happens to share domain space with the NAO. The circuitry is through the entire polar domain ...to then partially motivate the NAO toward base-lines when any offsets are absent. Like, if the AO is negative, the NAO 'wants to be negative' because of that shared space, but the synoptic forcing is blurring that signal.. Thus, there is an influence on one another, but there is also a disconnect and they don't always share the same mode value, nor move in the same direction. This tendency for skewing, combined with the fact the (-) vs (+) NAO states are heavily modulated by short duration planetary wave phenomenon, doesn't lend very well to a solar forcing or very reliable ( or perhaps "believable" ) useful as a predictor for the NAO. I just wonder/if not suspect, that replacing the NAO with the AO in the above analysis, might be better. The other aspect is that the NAO is over-rated for the Lakes/OV/upper MA and NE regions. It always has been. There are times when it correlates to storms and cold and it seems like it's immovable. But in reality ...the majority of our storms and cold are preceded by modulation events upstream in the EPO/PNA ...while there is -AO tendencies overall. In fact, a data supported argument could be made that the NAO more oft then the other way around ..is a negative interference pattern. It may reflect a correlation more in temperatures than actual storminess in said areas.

This 00z ( last ..) did in fact back down the PNA (GEFs). The apex of that curve shed a standard deviation... though still immense for this time of year. But also, the end is opening up and descending to neutral now by week two.. I've also seen this sort of 'big error' interval occur before. Even in winter, when they tend to be a bit more dependable ...etc etc. My hunch is that we will see this thing flatten more over the next few days and perhaps a mean begin to represent the blend of the Euro/EPS mean. I'd include the GFS ( because it happens to quasi agree at the moment) but that would mean I'd have to do so i the future, and I don't think the GFS is a good model. NGFS is perhaps more apropos, as in No Good Forecast System. Kidding some of course... But it's consummate tendency to cumulatively lower heights on the polar side of the westerlies is easy to see when comparing to other models that routinely score better. These lower-ish heights edging, gives it more velocity against the expanded warm heights of CC ... as though a fast hemisphere need more velocity? It's insidious that way, because a fast hemisphere ( anyway ..) sorta hides the GFS bias. It does seem to correct as it gets from D10 to 7 to 4 ... and so forth, perhaps adding to not being seen. In reality, it's not a terrible model - no. But it's just not very good at detecting/hinting out there in time because that bias is damping stuff.

I'm curious what the GEFs 07/29, 00z computation re the PNA look like. PNA is supposedly non or low correlative/confidence at this time of year, but it's hard to argue against the look of July 20 - Aug 2 ( aft and for') and how well that has/is matches up with the GEFs derived +PNA. Chances are, when it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck ... it's a duck. This pattern, aft and fro, fits nicely enough within prior PNA forecasts. I have never seen this robust of both amplitude and concerted agreement in this PNA, entering early August - ever. Supposition for those that like the pain of headaches: I have been noticing this in recent summers actually ( to be honest ..) The PNA has been a bit more useful than the italic assumption above over recent summers - it's been consistent too. I hypothesize why.. The speedier velocity rich hemisphere's we have been observing during the last 15 to 20 winters, is not entirely dispersing in summers. It's relaxing, but not 'as much'. In short .. relative to summer circulation climate we are still seeing somewhat elevated geopotential wind anomalies in/along the best perceived cores of the westerly jets. [ enter data to support here that is not merely anecdotal lol ] This enters wave mechanical arguments - easy ones at that. Fast flow organizes wave structures more proficiently. The rest is academic; this reduction of entropy/off-set of normal summer nebular tendencies, is tending to manufacture/maintain R-wave structures. These structures are going to abide the same laws and behavior as they do in the winter/colder months. "When," in this sense means nothing. So, you tend to better definitive wave structures, the telecon's thus pop back to life (if not partly so).

Didn't fall off here in N Mass as much as the air sniffed like it wanted to... interesting. 57 to 63 is the bell curve from scanning around the hill-folk home stations tied into Wunder'. I see a definitive pattern change on the way. The hemisphere moves away from the anomalous R-wave ridge-trough .. to something- not sure the models/ens means know where to go really. That look out there almost seems like a waiting pattern for a signal to re-emerge, or assert anew either way. Either way, I don't see a longitudinal ridge along and S of 40 N as being very stable. I also find it interesting that some recent operational Euro and GFS are signaling another retrograde warm front event, similar to what transpired once or twice back in June - in both occasions, preceding a WAR retrograde. As an aside: I'm curious what the GEFs 07/29, 00z computation re the PNA look like. PNA is supposedly non or low correlative/confidence at this time of year, but it's hard to argue against the look of July 20 - Aug 2 ( aft and for') and how well that has/is matches up with the GEFs derived +PNA. Chances are, when it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck ... it's a duck. This pattern, aft and fro, fits nicely enough within prior PNA forecasts. I have never seen this robust of both amplitude and concerted agreement in this PNA, entering early August - ever. I have been noticing this in recent summers actually ( to be honest ..) The PNA has been a bit more useful than the italic assumption above over recent summers - it's been consistent too. I hypothesize why.. The speedier velocity rich hemisphere's we have been observing during the last 15 to 20 winters, is not entirely dispersing in summers. It's relaxing, but not 'as much'. In short .. relative to summer circulation climate we are still seeing somewhat elevated geopotential wind anomalies in/along the best perceived cores of the westerly jets. [ enter data to support here that is not merely anecdotal lol ] This enters wave mechanical arguments - easy ones at that. Fast flow organizes wave structures more proficiently. The rest is academic; this reduction of entropy/off-set of normal summer nebular tendencies, is tending to manufacture/maintain R-wave structures. These structures are going to abide the same laws and behavior as they do in the winter/colder months. "When," in this sense means nothing. So, you tend to better definitive wave structures, the telecon's thus pop back to life (if not partly so). But that's hypothesis. It's a bit of a subjective-objective marriage there in order to science. We are not PHD legends sitting behind an Earth toned oak desk with a retinue of terrified grad students in a state of default institutional abuse to maintain their grants, just begging for an opportunity to prove it is true ... Besides most marriages fail inside of 5 years anyway LOL. I tell you ...as much as it curls my toe-nails to say this abused ism, 'Imagine if that happened in winter' Ugh I hate the escapism. It's so meaninglessly arbitrary. It's like being in a 20 minute typical summer thunderstorm, and say, gee - imagine ? But in this case the comparison carries more usefulness because, that is an unusually clustered/'instructive looking' curve up there, and probably an unsung or tallied metric, it is one that may have never been 'modeled' to do that before. Man, it'd take Rain Man to track of that sort of thing .. ha! But in early August by an entire ensemble system. Every member

Looking back … it’s been a ‘2 steps ahead (models) 1 step back (verifying)’ getting us to this air mass. As a result it’s taken some 20 days it seems like. Models were routinely over digging between D7 and 10; they inevitably trended flatter. That said the longer-term goal was to succeed in finally eroding heights down in the east. I kind of consider today through the weekend as maybe the nadir. Then will have one more go at summer and see what that entails. Solar max ends on August 8 tho but we did do June, which relatively that may actually be a competitive anomaly.. It feel like I’ve noticed this over the years … summer does tend to come in two waves - if perhaps just anecdotal…

What about June … wasn’t that the hottest June ever or top 3.

If you have viral particulate identifiable through seralogic differentiation, you are positive. Use in content among various media ? doesn't mean shit. Media preys on the 96th % tile nimrod to sell headlines. POSITIVE = cha-ching. Mask = cha-ching via vitriol. They're actually socially engineering you by sowing the seed for the 2ndary and tertiary fall-out sociological flowery headlines. They aren't causing/ed of the pandemic, but they have 0 compunctions of exploiting it with 0 morality. When eventually evolution kicks in and people begin to sense at an instinctive level how none of this will work, and start reclaiming life by simply turning away ... zero headlines.

I suppose this does concern early August so moving it here Trough for this weekend is minoring out some. Has the complexion in both the operational Euro and GFS ( shockingly... ) to really just cease momentum and stop digging. It's interesting. The pattern in the operational models appears to be responding to the multi- guidance complexion of a rising NAO ...more so than that odd looking +PNA spire. Not sure what to make of the latter - it's seemingly historic in proportion in that outlook, heavily clustered too. I wonder if the GEFs calculation ( CPC ) is just wrong and the server needs a reboot - that's just not seemingly possible given the state of the Pacific, nor the climatology this time of year, but we'll see. It seems pretty clear to me that the heat in the west has helped mechanize why we are cool here over the last 20 or so days -. That is feeding back at hemispheric scales and forcing a trough into the Lakes. Basically the heat dome forces the flow SE over the Lakes as a geostrophic balancing/argument... ...which given time, causes heights to rise ( subtly ) and a +NAO response. We see then the activation of the WAR signal in the D7-10 range now - it's really a non-linear large scale wave mechanics in action.

Trough for this weekend is minoring out some, btw. Has the complexion in both the operational Euro and GFS ( shockingly... ) to really just cease momentum and stop digging. It's interesting. The pattern in the operational models appears to be responding to the multi- guidance complexion of a rising NAO ...more so than that odd looking +PNA spire. Not sure what to make of the latter - it's seemingly historic in proportion in that outlook, heavily clustered too. I wonder if the GEFs calculation ( CPC ) is just wrong and the server needs a reboot - that's just not seemingly possible given the state of the Pacific, nor the climatology this time of year, but we'll see. It seems pretty clear to me that the heat in the west has helped mechanize why we are cool here over the last 20 or so days -. That is feeding back at hemispheric scales and forcing a trough into the Lakes. Basically the heat dome forces the flow SE over the Lakes as a geostrophic balancing/argument... ...which given time, causes heights to rise ( subtly ) and a +NAO response. We see then the activation of the WAR signal in the D7-10 range now - it's really a non-linear large scale wave mechanics in action.