Typhoon Tip

That's exactly what I was thinking Scott yeah. I mean they're adding 5 mph to get the hurricane sash on this thing - okay. But I almost wonder if that's more ( you know ) part of the NHC's PR jolt to a distracted thankless population that doesn't deserve their service... Seriously though, the so-so look at satellite: it is an interesting coincidence with some guidance trending back E. Internal monologue was thinking that may be because it is shallower and so not as deeply/fully integrated into the U/A circulation.

Yeah... the NHC agenda is entirely disconnected and not apart of the IMC ( industrial media complex) - lol. I am not impugning NHC at all. In fact, their hands are cuffed -wtf are they supposed to do. They are charged with informing of these sort of calamities to a society with dimmed hearing because the din of pop cultural stimulus has it that no one can really hear the "urgency" if they are even looking. So yeah, sit and wait and ... add 5 mph so that hurricane can take the podium and the flashing lights and "Twits" in the audience will look up from their iPhone - proverbially speaking. I wish some RECON pilot would spill the 'soft conspiracy' that they are routinely phoning in 70 and getting 80 out of NHC's decision makers but, that's sci-fi paranoid talk... ( seriously, don't take that j/k) anyway, the IMC is purely about money and needs some sort of non competitive but financed ( somehow ) media alternative - such that people can choose from it, or CNN/FOX/ABC/NBC/CBS fab five of marketing stimulus oil for lubing their Machiavellian economic engine.

Uh... if so, I'd like to see their database because the Euro "genome" sucks major donkey balls with tropical genesis/physics, always late to the party, and then that of course is observable out here as user community, when it subsequently can't really "see" it in future charts as a result of that - Bottom line, existentially the op and mean are not really 'better' in the tropics - but don't quote me ... The EPS is superior to the GFS above tropical phenomenon at most scales. The operational has it's own idiosyncrasies, particularly beyond D4.5 ... by in the early mid range, in my experience it is more reliable than the GFS. But I would consider the consensus of all products not including the Euro, before the Euro/EPS, when it comes to tropical handling. You know, ...as an afterthought, it may be a 'morphology of usefulness' - now that Henri is entangled in the larger synoptic conductors, suddenly the EPS "gets" to be more right LOL

Nick's right to point out that the track guidance is actually NHC's at this point - thanks Nick, I was not aware when I was a snarking LOL. However, the essence of what I was saying is true - media sources do 'hedge' for impressions and I hate it - What is interesting is that they, NHC, appear to be aligning their "consensus" with EPS almost like cut-and-paste. The GEFs don't look that way??

Yeah... the last 12 pages and all that.. I just remember a TS landfalling and weakening smear through the area last year, and it was S winds gusting in squally rains for a couple of hours ..even up here along Rt 2 in N-NE Massachusetts... It ended abruptly and the sun came out ..with the soothing tropical sort of ointment air you get when it gets sort of calmer with more gentler wind gusts after the primitive cool boundary of the underbelly brings in clearing rather abruptly. How could I resist! Perfect cycling... just some wet roads but whatever. Unfortunately, the bike path had a felled large limb if not tree every mile or so along the entire 12. It was a pain in the ass. Power was also out along some adjacent roads I could use as go-arounds, because traffic lights were off or blinking from battery. It was weird, I thought, " ..The winds did not seem really quite that bad... I remember thunderstorms with stronger outflows" etc.. That was winds gusting to may 42 mph in about 2" of rain and some loosely bound rad-based tor warnings. Similar actually to the band that came through yesterday and brought the EOF to Clinton...etc...etc... It occurred to me then that although the entire cinema of it was a disappointing as an "entirely responsible intellect in storm enthusiasm" ( haha ), we cannot really down play 'threat' or negate it too far, just because it's not got the badge of hour Category. 50mph wind gusts in heavy rain and seasonally wet root balls can be hugely problematic. And, ironically ..this strength of TS probably brings a more prolific coverage/realization of tor warning rad trips and dangling ropes sawing off tree tops. There's still plenty to be "responsible" over -

It's comical how each forecasting source/geography is taking ownership of the track guidance. It's making me actually giggle. It's as though advertising the exciting strike zone as better in our store, competing for ratings has turned weather events into that faux panache of marketing tricks. All these offices ( media ) have software and skill to formulate their own graphics these days ... so, they plug the ensemble member into the graphics engine that is the most dystopian excitement for their own ratings? That's what it comes off as. I have not seen a concensus that supports that far West, and nothing about now cast evinces that as the most likely either. Possible, sure .. All there is, is a couple ensemble members from whichever lusty appeal doing that. The problem is a sociological one. Media has come to an understanding that there are no penalties for false impressions - the forgetfulness of feckless society becomes a marvelous buffer. However, there is huge huge pay-back dividends for getting it right if they roll dice on a scenario and it happens to come true. It's like all of corporate media engages in Bastardiism

They may all be tropical storm warnings by nightfall/overnight... (sarcasm)

Pleezy weezie with sugar on top ... the expression is "Bahama Blue" ...because it is derived for a pattern that is a transit of air from deep SW Atlantic Basin in a conveyor all the way up. The air mass does have the Bahama Blue quality to it - correct... Very pithy blue in between narrow turrets and probable bee-bee-shower pixels on rad soon enough... But this air is not originating from Bermuda. We very rarely get a parabolic conveyor from that region of the Sargasso sea. It's Bahama Blue.

No one's asking me but .. .I've never been a big fan of that for TC already engaging within a westerlies manifold/capture scenario. That is more evidence - per my own experience - for very big dawgs that have already established their garland subsidence ring, Usually higher cat 4 and 5 beasts. When these ilk then move N and tote their circumvallate with them, they may near fronts. The front may bow out ahead. Or, a capturing upper air troughs may hesitate ..Fuji Wara a little .. like the tug of moon forcing it's gravitational host planet into a wobble. Heh. But that sort of thing. Henri is a pallid over production of fantasy by picking and choosing which-ever model balances plausibility with best intensity - LOL. Slight of hand aside, it's just not strong and it's really too late. Now that it is moving N and entangled in the web of the ridge-trough path, these large planetary structures will subsume and - think limit- development in lieu of integration.

NAM grid sustains easterlies into Logan over 30 hours with 575 dm thickness. Odd

I don’t think those are eye features they look like hot towers

Probably limited band width to pay attention to this kind of thing but there is a signal for a heat wave next week-maybe the seasons last

Oh shit. Lol I was looking at Grace and I said that

A couple pages behind here but yeah… Henri looks nasty now

Lol ... like the electron double-slit paradox that behaves like the electron is trying to be evasive - maybe we should all collectively ignore the forecast right up through Worcester

oh I see - yeah... No in this case the shear is outflow from that convection and it is joining into the on-going circulation mode/anticyclonic rotation, and that "add in" may be belaying the environment from transitioning into a lowered shear, by prolonging the N-E impacting vectors.

that's been doing that all day ... That region immediately/adjacent and west of your circled annotation is probably dim sun over 15' seas.

This is an immensely complex course work to do so. Start with this ... with scientific thesaurus in tow where needed: https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jlu0701.pdf The HC's northern boundary where it terminates into the westerlies is not fix boundary or 'curb' in free air either. It's really along where the gradient steepens, and the jets ( westerlies ) ablate past.. .It bulges, up then collapsing down ... over time, while the mean width appears to be growing since the hockey-stick era of CC really begin in the last 25 years... Anyway, the idea leveled a moment ago was speculative that now is one of those expanded bulge times... I mean how hard is that to guess, when the 582 is so far N and the 588 too... We are immersed in 575 thickness, with 85/75 Peruvian jungle air. It's not a huge leap to figure why a TC moving into this region would actually NOT encounter "colder" conditions than it is leaving - at least not cold enough to be a baroclinic/frontal genesis.

Not sure I know what you mean here ?

Another ob that may be real here... I think part of the shear that is still sort of lingering longer than thought during the day ...might be caused by that deep convection that's smearing east off the M/A today.. .Fred's guts subtended just enough cool frontal slope in that region, and that's a detail the models probably were not resolving prior runs/days leading. So, we have -70 cloud tops exploding in linear clusters and that has an an outflow in it's own right -

know why ? ( wait for it - you'll love this one ...) Hadley Cell. I think so. It's shell is beyond our latitude with Henri fully still engulfed inside the non-hydrostatic boundary, it is behaving like a warm atmsophere/cold ocean relic and just starving as opposed to encountering thermodynamic gradients where-by commencing baroclinic physical conversion. Fascinating.

Yeah ..it's been the idiosyncrasy about this thing in model designs all along - refuses to obey planetary physics LOL. No but agreed - quite odd actually.

It's pretty clear ... whomever's near the "6.66" is doomed to hell -

I actually agree with "Snowgoosenaughty69" because the UKMET has a curved bias it has always had imho, dating back to the late 1990s. I still see semblances of it there, lurking in that model's ongoing cinema... So seeing it be the most dramatic in that regard - heh... okay -

Staring at that vis loop ... It's almost like it wants to molt - completely remove/shed the mlv vortex, and after it decouples, the pupa llvs coughs until it explodes new convection and goes on from there.