Typhoon Tip

Wiz' ... I think we're too focused ( friendly criticism ) wrt detailing aspects ...looking and depending and reliant on details that are pretty equally probabilistic to set up, more or less, in either direction, for D4- 7 I think the general circulation mode suggest thunder chance, and we can worry about whether details will formulate in/on time, as the overal period gets underway. If the overarching structure transpires, even say a 50/50 slop blend of the operational Euro/GFS ... I think you run the potential of MCS' in there. That's a west flow at 500 mb ( that is modestly faster than normal, too - ) over top a 700 mb WSW flow and an 850 mb SW flow. That is an inherently geostrophic unstable scenario where impossible-to-define located theta-e axis tend to situate, and probably MCS umbilical and feed off them as they conveyor along. I mean it's a general theme at least to me that seems supported.

Something I don't like about a 'big heat' signal out of this outlook period in question. I mentioned three factors yesterday that are still in play imho - It helps that the GFS is 10% some -odd trended in favor I suppose, but it's flatter overall still. The Euro tends to over-amplify everything through some magnifying lens ... roughly D5-7 ... It tends to take whatever it is handling around D3.5 and 4.5 ... 5, and just arbitrarily applies some 20+% audacity to the charts. Suddenly a flat ridge novas a bit... Or a weak impulse up over N Manitoba circa D3 ... deriving power from the unknown ( here we go again), if the base-line pattern is even slightly +PNAP mode the Euro somehow torques the entire hemisphere around a defining R-wave event, calving out a core closed cyclone down 5 contours beneath history over Maine three days later... zaggeratin' to make the point. It's modest at times ..but the operational version does tend to "wash" the charts at the temporal seam where mid range fades to the extended. It could be basing out the flow too far in the west on D6 as it applies its 'cleaning,' ..and that concomitantly sends heights and 850s and everything ballooning over eastern America. Not sure...

Yeah .. Hopefully the following pun actually ruins someone's day but ... it should be "air" apparent when looking at the overall synoptic parametric evolution, combined with experience, that there can be as much as a 10 F cold bias with that stupid built in buzz kill. It's interesting that this seems to only work with summer and diurnal heating ( day ). It seems the imperfections are centered in the modulating in of solar into the daily noise - the models don't resolve that. In the winter, ( ...uh, I'm talking to the general reader at the moment ), the advection terms have more proxy over the temp .. It's why during cold outbreaks sometimes, particularly nearing 40 N and above latitudes, the coldest temperature can even occur at 1pm in full sun. The sun is overwhelmed by the planetary signal. I mean for extremer cold invasion deals. I nice 1033 mb high with a DP of -10 cresting overhead on January 4th over a sparkling snow pack overnight will cease engines from turning over just fine the next morning. But the models won't error 2-meter raw temps for cold in that/these sort of scenarios. It's just that for some reason, a +20C 850 mb layer passing in from the W with off-shore light flow, no clouds, sends the Euro 4pm surface temps to an eye-popping 89 F at Logan pretty ruitinely at D7. The other aspect is that the raw 2-meter temp error that Forkness points out ..it's all time-dependent. The raws values are almost exact at D0+ 12 hrs. Or at least much better. There's probably aspects about the modeling tech we don't know that are taking place in operation.

Actually .. hm. I might have been a bit too damped in my interpretation of the MJO wave. It's just that the RMM diagram is a mess right now. The individual models vs their ensemble are making cobwebs out of the plots. I was too focused on the recent verified weak wave propagation through the Phase 4-6 region that is typically correlated with hurricane toxicology heh. But at closer look and fairness, there presently a 'weak' emergent signal going on circa late phase 8 -2 ... That region does tend to corroborate better with Atlantic deep layer mechanics. Namely ... tending to lowering shear over all with upper level divergence. But emphasize weak... I mean it's a paltry signal - so far. It could get stronger. The PDF guys wrote that Personally I wonder if the MJO as forcing larger scale phenomenon is being rattled by the HC shit too - but that's another popsicle headache. I mean, over the years I see them making statements like this a lot, "...• Other modes, including a Kelvin wave that moved ahead of the main MJO convective envelope and is now over the East Pacific and the low frequency state over the Pacific are increasingly interfering with the MJO signal...." A statement from last week. We'll see what they think tomorrow.

Obviously y'all been onto this fledgling signal for a few days ...all credits duly conferred etc etc.. But, this morning behold! We bear witness to an occurrence seldom ever observed. It's the operational Euro model that sees a TC, most importantly before it actually exists. The Euro model is funny like that. It's like the Johnny Come Lately model. It does none of the work but then tells everyone how the shows going to go once they've tediously grind it out and succeeded in finally producing the thing. But here ... it seems the Euro cluster is leading that production effort. As Ineedsnow was nice enough to post there's been ensemble clatter; this time the operational version looks CV caney even. Seriously, it's weird though...the MJO numerics are not in favor of this, yet the 200mb velocity anomalies are. Christ... yet again, a large scale planetary 'reasonably' dependable statistical method appears to be operating/signaling in fracture. ...maybe. I mean the CMC has no clue right now, and that model has always dependably incapable of handling the temptation of so much as a cumulus cloud out there without creating a black hole that sucks the Earth completely into a Cat 7 singularity... The fact that it doesn't see anything at al - a lot of all this is performance asynchronous coming/considering these disparate sources. Interesting test for the Euro cluster -

I'm open to suggestion .. I'm not sure I get it/understand the connection between vaccinated population obligatory-atoning for un-vaccinated population ? can that be explained to me. I'm curious what other points of view are on that specific ( sort of ..) morally ambiguous responsibility. Vaccinated are those that have done their part to ensure macro safety; to mandate them in order to protect those whom by their own election ( in the vaster majority ) refuse, is an imposition. I'm sure there are those that are Kumbaya about it all and are willing to do so.. .but, ( imho - ) masks are not part of the biological imperative of human existence. So which is the greater imposition ? I guess I'm tipping my hat as to my own attitude/answer to the question with this ending question. Granted there are rare exceptions, where one may not be able to take a vaccine - those individuals are excessively remote compared to the numbers/vitality of the whole, and because of their small numbers ... they/that really should not present any kind of logistical challenge in managing their safety. So...just if we can exclude those exceptions - I'm not sure anyone vaccinated should be required, either by ethics or logic, to do anything.

Seems I recall an article or two.. .perhaps television over the last whence discussing the unlikelihood of ever actually achieving "herd immunity". Dissenting attitudes and social distrust morass that runs rampant throughout the ever-schismatic zeitgeists ( ..uh, culturally fracturing - ) are forces not likely to overcome; combining with logistical challenges inherent to to 'reaching' so many enclaves with vaccine and survivor numbers, when dealing with 7 1/2 billion population mass, makes doing that fuzzy. These were conceptualized... Well ? here we are ?

not sure any of that's "likely" to happen imho It's possible - but there are a few counter -arguments to that Euro jazz, enough so to not be very confident that's not just a model long range hallucination/..enhancing amplitude thing. One, the models does that. Two, the PNA ... yeah yeah yeah less correlative at this time of year, but this sort of concerted Satan comes to earth signal is tough to ignore: ...that's a historic scale of that index, definitely relative to August... And, excessively concerted - meaning all members agree! So, it's a battle between hypothesis of less season confidence, vs so much overwhelming monstrosity as to make one a dipshit if they ignore. Good luck...that ain't no warm signal. Three, persistence... persistence hasn't been demoed yet as being really broken down, and so that puts the onus on the models to not be screwing that up, and when those looks above don't support said models... that doesn't lend confidence that this is very real. So we'll see... The only hemispheric telecon that supports is the NAO... which is tough to rely upon in winter for that matter, let alone now.

Wait..was this the unaided eye, too ?

This is different then what took place last June. This is both non-hydrostatic ridge highs over arching a lower tropospheric, western/SW heat ejection. Sonoran release... We saw near historic heights in that regard in two distinct periods in June, and neither one had that kinetically charge air layer park into it. This time is trying to time that. But we don't have quite as high as non-hydrostatic heights. We are passing the solar max on Aug 8 ... first couple weeks aft it probably still gets redic hot ( obviously ..duh) but, it's not the same as getting it on July 10 say. So, the summer's is kind of asshole for that. LOL It's always something to fu it up. Either the heights are high enough, but the SW heat ejection isn't there. Or we get that but it ends up in a saturate warm sector with 80F DPs and little sun.

Right - Rob Gronkowski is obese according to the standard BMI metric. It's shit science. The only things that matters are your blood pressure ( and diastolic is more important than systolic), blood panel lipid spectrum, liver function, hereditary factors. If these essentials are healthy and you weight 320 lb, BMI is meaningless. In fact, you can negotiate with the those 4 if say 2.5 of them are even decent Lol.

Anecdotal: I've never been a very big fan of the 'lost sense of smell and taste' metric as a definitive in this thing. While it is certainly true that a bout with this thing brings that with it... my entire life, every time I've had a headcold since my childhood, I've experienced at a minimum some attenuation of those senses, if not total, for some transience. Too wit: Rhino Virus, to which the head cold is attributed ... is in the caronavirus family - those in charge of disseminating information to the media, if perhaps the media itself, knew this all along - yes they f'ing did! But no - don't tell the masses. Just leverage lost senses angle - it's disgusting. So now ... for the next 50 years and 2.5 generations of zeitgeist morphology, whenever any someone thinks their food boring it's off to COVID cause and guess what? - be it direct or indirect connection, big pharma gets to make money. This thing is a cash-cow societal engine now - LOL

Echoing Ryan's sentiments up there... The PTown outbreak probably resulted from a uniquely concentrated scenario, skewing rate or breakthrough cases to look worse in terms of risk than it will be or is, for the more normal population dispersion. That's A B, the vaccines were never supposed to provide absolute protection. ..short memories... In fact, there was always advice that if a breakthrough happens (..and it was warned that would happen hello! ) the vaccine would lower the probability that the infection would result in hospitalization and death. So far, nothing about that PT outbreak really is inconsistent with these statements. That all said.. wtf! There seems to be a goddamn entitled to utopia thing going on in people. Folks, the worlds sucks and you are going to die! Pick how... This whole f'ing C19 thing won't die, not because COVID won't go away. NO! It won't die because of this is this f'ed up conceit of entitlement to a no-worries care free existence people think they are somehow owed for living. I hope everyone gets. period. Sorry just pissed off.. but really Humility is the pathway to both enlightenment and salvation.

Nah mm not sure I agree here. The fact that anyone would make a statement the likes of which so egregiously challenges conventional plausibility, and is in fact almost impossible, probably means he hyper serious about something - for one, not having any respect for the audience. I understand what you meant/mean, and how the turn of phrase, 'not a serious person,' is a cutesy little euphemism for dumb f'ck asshole... But in his case, he's marketing for big pharma by attempting some poorly veiled example of gaslighting people's fear so they'll run out and get "Pfifed"

mm, almost wonder. if we'd spared the region 3" of deluge last night, would this have been 74/52 or even 76/51 with more sun. That's kind of high dp for that the t measure. course, you're elevation may play roll - who knows.

Mm people should keep in mind, ....and, more people have died in history for causes rooted in some for of symbolism than any other causes combined. Virtue signaling is entirely symbolic.

Which (intuition+ world history) / 2 = not very sustainable over the long run ... but we'll see.

All presidents hear voices in their head ...I mean, ears. ( heh) A president is only as good as his/her appointed committee of internal advisors and their functional ecumenical outreach and work-acumen in/with/among the various representatives of the grander industrial mecca. This is all obvious to 8th grade Social Studies, but the reality of that station in society is not about the president... It is the presidency. That's the gamble of the presidential hopeful's rise to power and the devil dealing - They get all the credit when "approval ratings" have 'em exalted as a Pharaoh. Unfortunately, they take the blame when the vicissitudes mount.

This idea of partially damming viral transmission streams against a flood of typical weekend social engagements? mm, yeah, that is more apt to occur as a policy decision than doing so on a random Tuesday, sure -

Meh... we are all just molecules in a test tube of the gods, in this huge techno-sociological experiment. Heh. I love metaphors that make no sense to people. Just saying that we are unwittingly doing this as a social experiment. One that takes place, because it can - really. It's an evolutionary step. Humanity simply couldn't do this in 1918-1920's Spanish Flu outbreak. Hadn't yet evolved the wherewithal. In fact, we couldn't really do it as recently as 1967-1969's whatever that was ... We might have been able to do so in the 2003 and again, 2013 SARs but those 'pandemics' seem to fail before a pan-Global organized reaction could logistically be tested. Which is what all this is. I extolled the virtue of this 15 months ago ... but since people see my handle+any post and they tend to auto skip nowadays for whatever reason ( probably my fault ), no one either saw it, ... much less remembers. But, this is the first time the entire sovereign membership of Humanity, all in their disparate causes, practices and principles, agreed on a course of action that did not require a WORLD WAR. It is, in essence, the first time we attempt life, instead of death, as a species. Now that's an interesting study in anthropology, ... but, it really is one that is fundamentally made possible, almost entirely because of technology. It is a direct example of how technology feeds-back on the tribe - so to speak. But, it is relavent to me here, because as Phin mentions, "dark turning point" - or words to that affect/effect, it's really not in my estimation about that 'darkness,' or dystopia ..it's more like it has to happen because of the experimental process. This is all going to have positive ( advancements) and set backs in perception. And it may ultimately fail - yup. That's true too. When did any attempt at any scale of Humanity, great or small, succeed on the first try? Yet, we risk failing with enough power to be ... well - heh, swift and complete in consequence. Leave it at that. That's kind of a scary prospect but ... evolution is scary. Because guess what ? 99.99 % of all species that emerged from primordial states to have a lease on this world, no longer exist. So, usually, the experiments fail. Let us hope history and statistics don't count this time. LOL ( at least I think 'lol')

Yeah..it's a like "petty poetic justice" for the posting antics among the marauders of anti summer spin. You know, those that have such a winter co-dependent, psycho babble need to experience cold and snow, warm, summery tactilities actually causes them pain. Lol - Actually, after that Halloween winter of 2012 "finally" ended, and spring came in as it should by mid November that year ... we actually had DJF not too hugely dissimilar to what your hyperbole approaches. I remember weekend after weekend after weekend with 54 F in tepid sloped sun casting long shadows up snowless fairways doing disk golf with buddies, in cargo shorts and waste-tied-off-sweat shirts because ...it just wasn't cold enough to don them. I'm sure there were periods in there of inclement weather ...hell, maybe snow. But the dominating longer termed appeal was striking enough that we only remember that as the year without a winter - no one wants to even float that sentiment. Gee I wonder why - I think it was long about the end of January that year, "The Onion" had a headline that read essence of the like, "Rare 32 F temperature strikes Northern New York State" ...with their particular incisive satire in 'breaking news' .

I think it interesting that despite all these 10 to 15" monthly rain total posts there really isn't an ongoing river-out-of-banks scenario throughout the pan -SNE region. Other than a few incident, transient quick reponder -type tributaries - all we have to show for this 'drama' is the July anomaly of lush green lawn. Call CNN! It shows how hard it is to actually flood this old geology. I mean point being, what it takes to 'flood' here. You need truly absurd things to happen to make it amazing. Like October 1996, or May 2005 ( Merrimack), or March 2010. ...or going further back. 1987 ..1930s...etc. They were amazing, but only just - October '96 was a unique scenario of a TC being partially stripping away by a synoptic interaction. Reminded me on satellite of deep field Astronomy. Some doomed gravity bound star being elongated and pulled into an intake channel, this TC schmuck's guts got dumped over E and SE zones. I think Winchester had clocked 10" in a single night in that one. May 2005 was extraordinary along the Merrimack. As someone who went to school at UML and I can tell you, the specter of that visage as the water rose so high was gasping. It was certainly never seen before, personally. I remember the 15 to 22" Pawtucket dam and how that fall- draft was no longer falling water. It had become but a surface dent like a macrocosm of water moving over a boulders in a stream? Same behavior but so much mass you don't exist. It sort of had that creepy feel to it ... like that scene in "TItanic" in the engine room when the iron piston cinema combined with the audio presentation were so overwhelming. March 2010 had decent snow-melt-back to snow oscillations through the antecedent months of winter. And then came March. Actually, technically the onslaught began at the end of February, with a retrograde coastal that rained ...but not as much as the real heavy onslaught, which came in three events 4-6" each spanning three weeks, exquisitely timed with said ground release. One spectacle that was particularly awesome, a friend and I were en route to Mohegan Sun in CT. As Rt 13 I think it was ... cut over the top of a pine forest, from that vantage, the entire expanse of forest floor was water tumbling over rocks and old wood detritus. Granted, these are in general anecdotal accounting. Just off the top of one's memory. Each one of these events took place because of exceedingly rare return rate scenarios. Yet, not many of them did that kind of extra-special damage you see around the world. It didn't do Europe ( recently ..) for example. Although I'm sure some offended bloke with a town or backyard impact memory will try to lean a post content against the weight of this statement. But no. Not really. Not saying it can't happen - but it's like our snow pack thing. It's very difficult to exceed 36" inches for elevations below say 700 feet. I have lived all over eastern Mass for the past 35 years, and never have seen the snow pack approach 40" ...and have only seen that once, and 36" occurred twice. Something always happens to neuter a scenario down. We get our big events, but the irony is, the rarest of all, ... probably that 1953 Worcester tornado in the relative scale, is the most extraordinary thing to ever have happened here. Maybe rarer yet ...in 1755 an Earthquake estimated between 6.3 and 6.7 occurred not 20 Mi E of Cape Ann where the Merrimack Valley, which is the surface vestige of supposed dormant fault, plunges into the Atlantic abyss. That occurred, mind you ..., 150 years before brick and mortar, steal and glass serrated city sky-lines.

Well that's true - their product is information, regardless of whether the prefix "miss" should be attached to the beginning, that is what they proffer, but they do it for money. Money money money. It's a business. Period. ( Not preaching to you per se just the straw person...) And, money moves how money moves. Otherwise, ... THEY DO NOT HAVE A BUSINESS So, in every business arrangement ..there is a marketer, and a purchaser. Remove the destination, ...removes the business relationship, and money no longer moves. This so-obvious-a-monkey-could-spell-it-out is really a reflection of we the people, in order to form a more perfect union ...lust for drama to the point where [apparently] enough population not only wants it ... their is even addictive patterning to it. This actually is the veneer in the whole examination done by 60 min a few years ago, about the e-tropic addiction problem associated with tech. It really opens just a Pandora's box of sociological issues ...blah blah... ( also, check out the "Social Dilemma" on NETFLIX ) But straw men and women make up a huge population and that is a sufficient pool to keep the IMC rich and the rest of us pining for truth that is caused to be missed.

CNN so taken for anti-gospel buuut... this is amusing. They have a couple of a headlined side-car articles there - or did as of an hour ago not sure now - where apparently people are ashamed of stipulating/acquiescing and getting the vaccine in some of those ...well, they politicize everything like the good little ratings whores they are. If any of it is true, the article reads that people are actually disguising themselves as someone else, and then getting the vaccine while in the disguise. ha ha ha Omg... tears laughing ..that is awesome. The hypocrisy is so deliciously douchy - and simple minded ... No doubt, they go right from the vaccine site to some derivative of an anti-vaxxer pep rally where they proffer conspiracy theories, while their little cultural island of petty cynics are impressed with their articulation. that is - if CNN hasn't just made this up -