Typhoon Tip

This isn't to you, Brian, per se - Advanced environmental science on the natural states of ecology and the roll that wild fires plays in that, would not agree that "more human attempts" in controls is the answer. The reason for that, is the purist's point of view: we are not that good enough at doing so, and tinkering with systems that have unknowns inevitably has always led to much bigger unintended consequences. Think But that's the ideology - From what I've read though ...the focus has always been in the area of 'prevention'; it is causing the time-bomb scenario. Hence the "controlled burn" - which is almost an amusing euphemism, really, one that banners the ability to reign in what is inherently an physical process involving out of control thermodynamic rage. Anyway, 'intuitively,' it seems the immense complexity of knowing more precisely where and what amount of mass necessarily need fire management in order to maintain lowered catastrophic risk, while still upholding a healthy ecosystem - it's probably an imperfect science ?? I believe that is true. I have seen it said many times, in many different context, " ...Is not completely understood." I don't think human intervention into that natural setting out there has ever really known. Until we do ... it seems logical that we are liable for encroaching on those habitats in the first place. But that's all just A - B, Climate Change than deltas that quite a bit. I mean, if the entire region is truly in the so called "Millennial Drought," as the drama-enterprise of big media has recently adopted as the dystopian slogan-meme for the west, then it also seems futile. Intuitively again, one has to wonder if "any" controlled burning really matters. Because at some point 'death by aridity' is both an above and below foot ultimatum, and similar to what climate scientist warn about the Middle East, the region may be heading toward non-sustainability to civility at all... a.k.a., uninhabitable. I have this "ACME" Road Runner Sci-Fi solution to the problem ...LOL A 10 trillion dollar operation that rivals the Great Wall of China. The great "hydro reclamation" project fills the valley with piped water from the northern tip of the Baja of California. It wouldn't even be a carbon footprint after the development, because the valley is lower than the ocean, so potential gravity is the engine that drives the transport. Evaporation would come immediately into balance after the initial 'pour' process. Before doing so, the alluvial-fan sediment would have to be removed from the valley flow, and that would lower the elevation another hundred foot or so and would take the age of the known Solar System to complete just that phase ... So that, combined with the obvious absurd dumb reasons why this won't work, makes this proposal a cartoon - still... I've often fantasized some sort of 9.2 'never-heard-of-before' Slip Fault quake ( big boy Seismic events have always been a Thrust Fault type ), but the event "splits" the landscape and the ocean tsunamis in... Then, all this technological wizardry humanity is proving it is capable of goes in there with space age desalinization at epic industrial scale, and California has unlimited water.

It's how it begins though ...the early vestiges of seasonal change/suggestion shows up in the modeling. It's like the "shot across the bow" first happens there, ...then we get one in reality - and they do not necessarily result from the same source. - nothing 'CFS,' combined with those sort of time ranges, needs any response in the first matter though - I mean it's not a matter of aging; it's a matter of existence or not. It's hard to 'count on aging well' out of the gates for utter fractal dreams of primitive AI, and nothing disseminated by that idiotic technology does anything else. Really ... why is the CFS run - seriously ...pragmatically, I don't really understand what it's purpose/function is -

89/78 Tuesday ? brutal 00z NAM

You laugh but that shit happened last year... 4" of snow in October is becoming the thing - The folding due to westerly speed saturation pays off early ...but then said speed hurts winter, before ending in another bout that sort of bs

I was actually almost stunned that there was no tor watch preemptively set up this morning until I started analyzing things. I mentioned this earlier ... It's pretty clear that a BD air mass got involved into this. We had two consecutive days of 73 to 77 DPs here, then this morning it was 68/66 with mist and slat, leaves wobbling from the N... uh, scratching head - There's a reason why WPC analyzed Henri with warm front sticking out of it toward the east a couple hours ago This thing was like creating lies as it went - ha! Anyway, there was no way this thing was doing anything under 2000' up along Rt 2

You do realize that as Global Warming continues and human's at last succeed in this extinction event they appear to so eagerly want to see happen ... this kind of warm miasma becomes more and more the norm ... One of the many gem suggestions that comes out of the CC modeling -

Interesting... so they must of just had doubts about a "storm" at all then. Like, they couldn't get that previous one right so the big dawg'll miss - ha. but that's weird psychology when you think about it.. .because not getting rain right in lieu of snow, wouldn't lend one to think that when they predict snow ..it should necessarily be rain - unless they thought the storm would miss altogether. wow...what a delicious morass of distrust -

ah ...having trouble parsing out this sentence lol what -

MEX for ASH on Wed has 95/69 ... It's day 3. Considering MOS damps daily anomalies with climate ...adding a tick or two onto the T side of that relationship implies a steamy sultry pairing ( heh ). No but that would rival any of those mid 90s heat days we had back in June. Thursday's not much relief 93/70 ..again, could be 95. Two big heat days back to back post Augie 20 isn't bad.

Ha! ... I don't remember that one -

..heh, I feel like sleeper left for work before that alarm went off already -

I've heard of this anecdotally ... I wasn't around during that era - There were a couple of events in weeks leading. Logan set a 24-hour snow total record. But 'when' was this so called bust ? Was it the Cleveland Bomb - maybe they originally thought that would end up the coast?? I can tell you, if that Cleveland circumstance had set up shop 30 Mi E of Montauk - maybe that is physically impossible, I dunno. I can't imagine a stalled 953 mb in that space and what it would have done. It also may not have matter(s)(ed)... The Feb 4-7 set up featured a lobing 1050 mb high. So maybe the total pressure differentials are more equal in that arithmetic. Another way to think of it ... maybe without the enormous ambient higher pressure anomaly, Feb 4-7 would have bottomed out deeper. Heh, in the end it's like comparing Ali to Tyson

This oughtin' set up the yokels good and proper for the 3 and 7/8ths Category bomb coming up the coast on September 20 ... No one'll believe it -

Boy ...if there were ever an ominous message written on a wall - that looks like hydro concern for western CT .. It's not complex, either. If this thing slows and meanders N ...it's going to take several hours to do so, in which time we're raining out a tropical PWAT weight. good luck -

the only aspect that really hearkens to Sandy - imho - is just the principle of U/A capture. That in and of its self bears similarity. ....Maaaybe the -NAO dive preceding can be thrown into that argument. But beyond that, ... it's like saying a mushroom cloud over a camp fire is the same as an a-bomb; at some point the magnitude has to diminish the usefulness of a comparison to futility.

exactly - the whole thing is geo-inverted in that sense. you know, from the get go we knew this was an anomalous ordeal - but it just keeps unfolding that way as the story's being written.

It's almost like an PRE that's pivoted around -

Also thinking that would be the last hurrah of a summer and we crack back - ...hell, it's September anyway.. But because of other reasons.

Yeah. Yup. I mean there’s a lot of different parameters to include and that is limiting more so now. -the basic scaffolding

When/if anyone re-engages with this thread.. . That's an impressive non-hydrostatic heat signal in the operational GFS extending across some four or even five days ...from ~ Tue thru next Sun The Euro has it too, but ...it also ripples a blocking/ridge node through the flow, over southern Canada .., with more amplitude and this feature piles up a surface high that interrupts it. But the D8 to 10 looks hot afterward. This has been really been in the guidance for some time but obviously ..Henri's held attention spans captive. We are late in the season for big heat. Obviously we've seen 90 to 100 in early September, so history demo's it is not impossible. But it is getting notable to have +17 to +20 850 MB air over the southern Lakes, lower OV and M/A regions, should the oper. GFS near historic 500 mb non-hydro heights over top. We are past the solar max, so we need less clouds ...favorable wind directions and so on to not interfere.

Yup ... relishing in the storm-lusty 28 mph winds while the cloud elements streak by a 58 -

for folks E and N of ORH... I'm almost wondering if the skies and conditions actually improve later this afternoon and even get some sun splashing and clearing streets.

It wasn't a difficult insight to gather, just conceptually leading this, yup - then seeing it charted ... pretty much should have K0ed enthusiast's expectations for drama LOL ..so to speak ..

Heard about that...wow. no good -

I wonder what the winds are off the deck. Some of us outlined the idea that stability in the region may 'lift' the cyclonic disk of Henri above... As I was mentioning to Brian a while back, it seems we did have some bit of a NE invasion of slightly cooler air overnight. My lofty DPs abandoned by down, in 68/66 here, which really falls the air beneath a lighter tropical quality/buoyancy sounding type. If this air mass is/were/gotten entrained S into the pressure well as Henri was approaching overnight, than it's not impossible to imagine this thing is more decoupled from the surface then we may presently be considering - not that anyone isn't, per se heh. But Block Island's winds seem low for that pressure approach. Maybe also because it is nearing the center/axis or ... what's left of an eye in some stretch of the imagination, too