Typhoon Tip

You know ... I've spent some time this morning outlining some of the uniqueness vs comparisons to past, re this whole thing. Some semblance in governing synoptic players that in principle are similar to Sandy - but differ in exact orientation and amplitude...etc..etc.. But the uniqueness of this may be slipping away to that sort of nearer term modulation you're demo represents above. That's starting to try and look or 'trend' in a more typical climo set up ...it's not there totally. But trend - interesting...

Okay ...you're talking about something else: impact specifics ... I was just referring to the meteorological shit. Heh... Yeah, I wouldn't care to debate the other popsicle headache discussion. It's subjective to experience making that non-influential, but objectively, there's not likely to be any empirical comparison UNLESS this thing Cat 4's outta nowhere and expands radii and all that... who knows. I lost my internet connection for 20 minutes so -heh, may have missed some of that leading posts. sorry

Mm, the blocking node/-NAO with the U/A capute are very similar - There's a amplitude difference in those conducting large synoptic events, comparing the total manifold of Sandy and this, but in principle they are most certainly similar. A Sandy comparison is not BS - sorry. We can't get cute with exact parametrical comparisons - first of all, that's a snow-flake comparison argument. Second, it only means anything to petty squabbles in the social internet; 90% of the civility between Cape May and CT is not going to engage in pettiness. It came from the E in both cases and fugged up their lives. Science can hyper categorize later on after the dust settles... and probably those quantification efforts would reveal more that 50% likeness -

It's probably a silly subjective 'philosophical' take but... "ages" in that context - in literary circles - just means the impact-affects at cultural scales, incurring changes in modes of thinking therefrom in aftermath, and modality of means. The more so, the greater the 'age' of distinction? In that sense... Cat 1 ... 3 ... 5 means nothing. A stalled tropical storm in Texas in the 1970s dumped 40 " of rain and that changed the climate thinking of what can happen in Texas, and probably ... led/helped constructed Harvey response/understanding at least a little...etc... ( May not be the best example but helps the point - )

The "fanning" characteristic over the entire N outflow at upper levels is more indicative for me. But, in this case it may be 6 a dozen or half another because the better symmetry aloft may in fact be physically tied into that 'pulse' As far as the pulse its self, in a vaccuum it means less to me. We see these flare ups and have along the way, with Henri and every thing in history Lol. I think also we collectively are like carpet surfing crack discard for the petty nugget find to spark off in our pipes ... j/k. I love that metaphor. Seriously though, I wouldn't be surprised if we are seeing the instensity about to bite down hard over these ensuing 12 hours. I'm a little bit concerned shy of bun-merit for the anecdotal climate of how systems that make it through hostile guanlets and live to strengthen, tend to go a bit crazy - it's almost like they have stored momentum/battery that adds to the environmental favoring, and they like synergistically get a feed-back. interesting...

It's a matter of scale with that. At smaller scales, a single home can adapt quickly for obvious logistic easy and access to compensating means ...etc. At society scope -? Nope. Panic ...given time. Social order break downs and anarchistic phases of discord will get scary. It gets into the darker humanities of that kind of violent hording/pillaging ... climbing over the injured in survival fight or flights for potable water, food of any kind by those that have 0 skill but 100% acclimation to the industrial bubble - which ...unfortunately represents 90some percent if every person. With nothing moving any longer along social order.. basically, an apocalypse being a dimension of scope and scale that no one really thinks about because let's face it: The Grid is sort of assumed? It's probably more a philosophical sojourn/sci-fi thing for the banter thread, but ... nothing about Henri imposes that latter extreme scenario, no. Haha. Obviously we'd need something of a different order to bring about that ... I dunno, Yellowstone, a Carrington or comet impact event ...

Yeah... they're being unkind in the bun Tsunamis but ... if you are really on the Jersey shore, I would not assess "storm impact gaining traction" for your location. In fact, if it approaches CT from the SSE, you may end up in strikingly beautiful lighter winds pushing 79/75 tropical balm, while the heaviest rain is up the coast toward NYC. Trauma of Sandy may guide more so than present 'clearer' impression of threat assessing, but ..as there are no certainties in the weather-related risk game, it can't hurt to be prepared. And one should always monitor, either way.

Oh ...shoot - missed ur op to fug with folks there. You should have put a big H in the mix-

Heh... right - sure they do. Until it shows an ISP to EEN track at 920 mb, then, '...There are circumstances where this guidance can be trusted though' lol... J/k... There are in fact circumstances where it can be trust ... though tropics and interacting tropical phenomenon with the westerly complexity is not one of those circumstances.

Will and I were discussing that last night, AGREED... Folks'll need to come down off the 'we may not get the direct goods' disappointment first, but the old adage of not focusing on the exact position comes into play. A compromised track that goes NW or NNW through say ISP-HFD as a rought axis, probably sends E0F .. E1F tornado swarm over all of RI and central/E Ma and southern NH.

Yup ...add that to dizzying array of components to this thing. Is the timing of the ET even right...

I sort of agree ... But, it would look more fairly "robust" imh, if it did not appear like a comet due to shear. I've seen Caribbean menaces on satellite with insidious inky black to pink vomit tops spread out over apocalyptic spans ... Plane gets in there, 45 kts, mostly in the N side or something. I mean those examples don't necessitate a diagnosis now, no. Lol.. Point is, let us not beguile for these satellite cinemas... They to often lie. That said, what I do agree or nod to that, is the aspect longevity in the face of hostile incurring force of stress. Whether one looks at a loop from 36 hours ago or now, they couldn't really tell them apart. It's been exceptionally stable in it's ability to hold in there ... 65 or 70 mph and 996-like pressure well, regardless of tilted chimney and appearing like seaweed wrapping backward around a tide current. That is kind of a 'robustness' in its own right, really... But this also leaps an anecdotal sort of observation to mind. It's been discussed in all ranks. It's the notion that systems that 'weather' ( pun that has no choice but said... Now that's an interesting pun ) hostility and then encounter favorable environments later on, tend to respond and flower and go nuts more proficiently ...

Some of us have been attempting to keep that more focused ... I ( and anyone else that may have...) spoke at length about the similarities to Sandy, namely: -NAO U/A trough ... the interaction between these two is the entire conductor in orchestrating the destiny of Henri's song. As Sandy demoed in the models, ...they were vastly too far N and E all along, and subsequently correct the "left hook" as it's coined, farther and farther SW. At first, in the guidance, the consensus was impressive to even pick it up - we can be amazed by just that alone... - but it had it deviating back to a N track E of Maine. Then, D 10 -- D7 it was into Maine ... then SNE, then NYC... ultimately, land fall was near Cape May NJ ( or thereabouts...). Granted, the -NAO blocking structures, as well as the trough, ...are not as anomalously strong as that example. Still, I am noting a definitive correction in the amount of hooking left, and it may be limitation do to beta-drift at extended leads, where the models can't really drive a cyclonic rotation against the Coriolis parameter and see the amount of that westward turn - speculative in these latter aspects. I trip into the NY Bite is certainly on the table. As I opined with passion a few moments ago ...that might be very very bad. heh... I wonder how much a city/region, that really is a small sub-country, can take, before a migration event takes place. It's got a tongue-in-cheek humor but for f' sake, 911 ... Sandy ... Pandemic ... and should this drill a Category 2/3 direct ( keeping in mind, Sandy's surge into the understructure of the city was an indirect result! ) surge ... I could almost imagine that becomes a spooked out creep hovel of dystopian fears and people throw hands... resiliency mystique or not, get me the fuggoutta 'eer

This may be the storm that triggers the first North America, 'climate change' attributed diaspora of population out of a geographical region. Namely, ... NYC ( California is next but ..that's probably more suited to the climate forum) Sandy literally filled the subways of lower Manhattan. Video sent homages of a doom's day species migration - think skies filled with fleeing birds, Hollywood trope. But it wasn't in the sky - it was under foot. Rats! Eeew ... flooding up stairwells ( saw video ), proverbially at the same rate the water fell over the top step, rolling over each subsequent like a class- 4 rapids. That UKMET solution from last 0z last night. That appearance connotes a far worse than Sandy scenario to me. The model seems to want Cat 2 .. ( maybe 3 can be inferred by that weird flop-high tendency that biases guidance all the damn time...) over a long enough period to really not f*ck around with just being close to surge doming - that water WILL come in en masse, bee-line and targeted direct, not indirect like Sandy did. That region, the geographic "bite" layout of upper NJ and western L.I., has never really experienced the full geological possibility it has dodged for the last 200 years: a full bird categoried monster hooking the eye over Central Park. That's ...almost indescribably bad if that happens. Beyond 'bundamental' insanity. But wait, they built 'The Battery' after Sandy - okay...

I'm currently in the past, 9 hours ago, for having traveled in the slumber machine ... but two schools of thought on that. I was thinking about this yesterday. Does this thing have to count in those statistical curves? No two origins and subsequent synoptic track drivers ( meaning synoptic circulation modes in the latter sense ...) are going to be exactly the same. However, typically these are at least cousins to the CV long track. With -NAO timed well, then a trough of at least moderate amplitude approaches from 100 W, that's the precarious design that gets us our 1500 post teeming crack highs ... - LOL. But this? This is unique. We have that -NAO part ( which is interesting...), albeit modestly negative... it is very W/SW biased in the blocking. With a subtle but crucially timed amplitude rolling cyclonically overtop from Montreal to S of NS, while Henri is then directed N underneath. The entire domain over eastern N/A and the western Atlantic Basic is in a kind of implied cyclonic rotation that is going to direct as such... There is even a trough approaching from the W, but... both these features are weaker compared to the 'classical' amplitudes found in the above reference. But the one aspect completely blows the classical model out of the water - ...there's a semblance of a pun there... - is the origin. An MCS remnant that drifts S through the lower Maritime. Traveling some 1500 naut mile as it mutates, it then curls back W literally turning into a tropical cyclone. Blah blah gets caught under said block... That entire circulation manifold and timing over our hemisphere that did all this dance is really a challenge to anyone to find an analog ( not for argument sake, just because it's fascinating) The impetus in asking is because that uniqueness may stand apart from the 30-year.

I know it. Fer fk sake this year

-NAO ftw Jesus

Maybe it beats mosquitoes talks

Little obscure but I’ve never seen this before 24 hours of easterly fetch coming into Logan and the hydrostatic hgts never fall below 575 dm. extraordinary

I’ll tell ya … should this meaningfully impact the region … it’ll be the only one that ever did so like this. you’ll have the standard paradigm where 90 % fit in … a smattering of outliers, than this one out there all alone. I really don’t think this is ever happened in totality - not synoptically in how those things interact with each other and causes things to happen - none of it

I just think the cyclostrophic disk et al might get lifted over the top of the stabler oceanic boundary layer residing over the relatively colder shelf waters; then it becomes a wildcard weather mixes back down over land - assuming it gets that far nw and over ORH etc Whatever it’s gonna be very velocity Sheard so I think tornadoes could be enhanced in a situation like this this

Seems like at least some shift should be considered yeah. Interesting. I keep coming back to Sandy and how those models had to shift left; the situation similarly although it was much more demonstrative back then. What started out turning left in Maine in the models ended up turning left into New Jersey… Now this time the U/A is not that strong and the block is also a weaker. These situations are so anomalous I don’t think models are really going to handle it very well.

They’re gonna enter PR mode soon and that’s when the flop is always high

It looks the same to me. I mean they may give it the nod next advisory but it looks like the shears still limiting matters.

Right 60+ hours it’s moving into a region where it has to weaken.