Typhoon Tip

As expected... MAV/MET and NBM for that matter were too dry on DPs today. All sites ALB/BAF/FIT/BOS 62 to 66 and apparently this may rise looking up stream. I think this changes the convective picture a litttle, how much or how little - But TCU tiling in a fast conveyor atmosphere from NY as we well above 85 and still rising . I suspect nicking 90 is possible with perhaps more CAPE than modeled.

Can we 'Bahama blue' ? I love that type of pattern. 83/77 with streets of training/narrow glaciators that choke rain for 2 minutes. Brilliant white TCU against frankly, a blue tinted sky that rivals anything you see in a Canadian October delivery - I mean the sack-sticking stink of it sucks but it's pure conveyor from Nassau

not to be a wise-ass but ...no one does? This stein stuff is all fun ( and dumb ) but gardens and neighborhoods eventually do gully-wash by either afternoon air mass deals, or .. more meso-beta scale by that sort of noctural cyclic stuff. I looked at your rad over night and there were three cells amid a rad cenama that lasted for a couple of hours, and these sort of scaled events are too discrete for models -

I also feel the d-3 risk may smear more E in time, given to the on-gong longitudinal corrective behavior of any guidance when moving through temporal seam between the mid and shorter ranges. I could see that synoptically getting to western NE/E PA N NJ and NY metro, and then in situ monitoring also has that tendency of outpacing due to outflow propagation

Yeah ...looks like they're so veracious in their hunger they've mistaken identity and are etching that decking and scab colored picnic tables for blood meals.

I was advertising this risk up our way ( SNE ) three days ago ... modest lapse rate, but bigger CAPE and right entrance/side-swipe jet fields. Seems to pan out but the general kinematic layout is/has repositioned in space and time favoring that evening arrival into your region of the M/A. - at the time I noted the D3 out of SPC as 'mrgnl' throughout, and surmised they'd goose to 'slght' as the time nears - a typical wait-and-see tact out of that office. Indeed, they have, but it's back toward PA and not up this way. D'oh Still, I see this potential as a possible nocturnal evolver going forward - quasi MCS checklist in place. Not 100% sold But, there are wind maxima running over/astride of a bit of a synoptic acceleration of thermal conveyor - present linear MCS stalls/robs theta-e in that arrival? Perhaps. Source is appears smeared away from the heat Advised region of IA-IN yesterday. This shows nicely in these recent NAM FOUS/grid values ( heh, I'm old school). It's still pushing impressive 28 and 29 C at 980 over BOS/LGA respectively today and tomorrow, with WSW non marine contamination, and 700 and 500 mb <60% RH typically flags open insolation .. may have to now-cast ceilings with spill-over near-by. If so, I suspect 2-meters slope to 32 C is attainable over metrowest(s) type regions, so that's the other aspect - sneaking albeit pedestrian heat wave lurks. But yes the 565 dm thickness argues TDs may in fact belated.

Heh... I think that's over amped in the runs. we'll see -

The DPs hurting - without them, the CAPE are low. Prior runs looked more theta-e loaded with the in-bursting heat. Today may creep to 84/49 type warmth. It appears there is a diffused warm boundary tomorrow morning and near 90 heat sweeps in, but the theta-e appears to lag until Sunday. Which by then the wind max/S/W, will have moved out leaving probably 91 with 65 to 70DP by Sunday at 5 pm with mainly sun/fair skies and lazily wobbling flags. SPC still has us in marginal however - In fact, MOS products continue to creep higher for Sun and Mon, now 88 at KFIT and 89 at KASH. This may turn out to be a low grade heat wave for BDL-FIT-ASH-MHT and BOS if the wind can stay more 230, because all sites should be 91 to 95 on Tuesday.

See the D5 GFS with the 540 dm thickness over Ontario ? wow It's 'symbolically' if perhaps suggestive/inferred in climate history, why the 4th of July weekend may be the hottest ever - hyperbolic speaking lol. Seriously though, this June 22nd through the 4th of July has carried some "smoldering" attributes in the lingering AAM mode, combined with ridging trying to re-anchor between California and HA. These separate telecons converge and point toward higher highs over eastern N/A. I have noticed many, many times in the past, these sort of odd anomalies (540 over Ontario is deep for June) get kissed within a month by either an equal or aggregate series that ends up leveling the numbers. 540 now, 600 then Yet, that 540 is happening while these base-line larger/super-synoptic 'tendencies' are not being realized in the operational runs. I'm waiting for a guidance cycle to burst through and throw up a bigger 5H anomaly E of 100W more obviously. Metaphor is rubber band being pulled taut. 00z Euro illustrates 594+ dm, SE of Cape Cod on D10. That is probably overdoing it, but in principle it is not a terrible idea given above. Operational GFS is the last model in the bevy of tools to look for that at extended leads due to its cumulative cooling tendency on the polar side of the westerlies,, out in time. It's always 3 to as much at 12 dm colder in the geopotential medium of the Ferrel latitude trough nodes and ambience by D10 it seems. It's a band sander always grinding, and just scalps heights from rising at mid latitudes like an irate Apache. By the way folks, sneaking hot days tomorrow thru Tuesday? Nothing major.. 88 to 91. I really wasn't paying too much attention. I took a closer look when the 00z NAM was in with 27 C at T1 ( 980 mb) over Logan by late Sat afternoon. With lower ceiling RH ( 700 and 500 mb levels), and solar max open insolation lasing to/thru the planetary boundary, a WSW wind, this will probably will bust machine ( MOS ) by a 1-3 F there. I suggest it could nick 90 at BDL/FIT/ASH and provided the BOS stays above 230 on the wind dial there too. I'm unsure on the DPs though. Seems they should be a lot higher than these MOS/blended MOS products are putting up. interesting - But the Euro has 18 to 20C 850s in a SW flow from PHL to BOS on Monday and Tues, with thickness in the mid 570s. Eigh -

00z NAM is like 91/72 at Logan 4pm Sat. I’m sure MOS’ll cap the DP at 66 but that’s not how that day’s type of fresh warm sector intrusion synopsis typically works. Hills out in the distance will be blue tinted.

I think if memory serves the forecasters of the era were not sure if that track would resolve that way - some of the guidance took it farther N before the right slope... That turn probably spared BOS-PVD from a real flogging - I had moved to Michigan for that autumn and winter to take care of grandfather's house as he wasn't doing too well. He did die a year later.. but I was there and miss Bob, but thankfully, also the awful winter that followed for y'all. But we had one storm in Michigan that whole winter, 8" of snow that smelled like rain at 33 F. So, it wasn't a good year in the Lakes either. I moved back the immediate following spring, and that was the year of the 1992 December storm - the 2nd best event of my life behind the Cleveland Superbomb. Not sure why I said all that... I guess it's chain-linked in memory.

I'm such an idiot ....been going there for radar history all along - 'specially now that NWS has no radar at all - ... sarcasm intended! f'n assholes anyway, didn't even consider poking around in there for other stuff.. oy

Mm... to each his own in the interpretation vs expectation but, I don't think we are "due" if that's the tug in the conversation. Of course I'm not a big fan of 'due' anything. I mean, we'll get the first bona fide Cat 4 hurricane after a Cat 1 makes a similar pass three weeks earlier that same season - like on purpose to f' with that

Yeah and it helps elaborate the "stats lie" concept - too. I mean, so the return rate for more idealized strong hurricane Express is 20 or 30 years. But, that flurry of the mid century might skew that some? I mean they have cane stats going back to antiquity ...when some anecdotals, written in "ye ole souther doth rose a fierce clatter upon the morrow" type lost on me speak that we can guess or deduce were hurricanes - after they were decoded of course haha Kidding but I saw a Science Channel thing about the Atlantic. There are coastal sedimentary studies from Ches. Bay clear up to the head of Buzzard's that argue there have either been bigger hurricanes in the past, or a helluva more rich tsunamis history than anything witnessed since white man settled the West (whether invited or not). The same show talked about the Canary dooms-day clock

That must be really nice in pesky damming scenarios. I'd love to see that when the icing was schedule to flip to 33 rain yet it's still accreting almost to Kevin's How often is that update - like ..hourly or half hourly ?

Right right - Irene

Honestly I think we're doing okay as far as hitting quotas. I read the return rate ..well, we should all just know this by now, is 30-years for that sort of parabolic express job, but with a peppering of in-betweeners that remind us we're at the party, just not in the popular crowd - heh. The problem is, the atmosphere doesn't abide by human definitions. Isabel, not on the above list, still ( imho ) probably counts in that equation more than we would like it to. Ultimately, it didn't affect much here, but it was a Verdi opera that sang along he EC in general and to "Earth" ... you know? Just because a TC doesn't layout according to some idealized Cat 3 moving at 50mph, bifurcating LI and grinding off the tops of Wachusett and Monadnock summits like a circular sander, the TC still makes the cut. But yeah, "any" affect at all is a different stat vs the return rate for ideal impact scenarios - We've had Tropical Storms fit, too. Which one was that? It came up and rode along the beaches from Norfolk to NYC and brought like 20" or rain to VT.

The closest I ever came to a headlong experience with a hurricane was 'Gloria' in 1985. I was living in Acton/ fam. I doubt we saw 74.5 mph winds that far inland, but timbre cracks were frequent for a couple of hours in probably routine gusting to 60 .. 65. I can assure, the journey before the storm AND the storm its self, was a constant seamless crescendo of awe. I hate this word but, 'transcended' was the power of the wind as the straining 200 year old oak and maple, and the deafening white noise mixed with timbre claps as massive limb failures rained ... I guess the word is apropos. The power went out, which I loathe ... but where ice storms fail to recoup a sense of 'worth it,' Gloria did not. She was really very good at suck and blow... hahaha... sorry. Anyway but on Sept 15 or whatever as it were, it wasn't that big of a deal to a young guy. It was mild and we had planned with tuna and ham sandwiches. It did get chilly toward the end of the week as the trough that drew the cane up the expressway came through with a shot across the bow air mass. But the power was only out for 3 days. Ha, as an after thought, I remember later in school the next week people were bantering about how bad the winter was probably going to be because of Gloria. I remember thinking simultaneously how eerily portending and tempting it was, while knowing it was ludicrous. Indeed, I think 1985-1986 might have been rock-bottom for that truly abysmal decade ... This area of the world seemed to pay for 1978 eternally - speaking of irrational causation

Saturday looks thread worthy for convection to me. We haven't had an event -centered thread in while, and though it is talking convection in a powdered fu-up just add reason to do so region of the country, these parametrics look quite decent to me With better warm intrusion appearing in these latter run, the lapse rates are likely improving ( or steepening,...); meanwhile, those attending wind mechanics with right entrance into astride j-max ... that idea has been solid in the guidance across the board. Timing looks good, 18 thru 03 Z ALB - to Scott's hood ... Just noticing some of the meso models are taking an early stab at linear looks. SPC has marginal, but I'm telling you, should these continue that'll need upgraded -

I'm a hypocritical douche when it comes to heat. I love the synoptic anticipation of them - the markers and telecon spread monitoring and the predictive 'art' and science in nailing the onset of a 1995'er or this recent one ( actually ..) which was sort of historic under the radar here in New England for a lesser considered metric of longevity ( 5 days in early June - oooo kay)...etc., these are interesting and fascinating challenges. And watching them unfold and gawking over thermometer scalar values some afternoon at 2:49 pm while it's 98.6 and a hundo's in reach - Walking across a parking lot ? I hate all of humanity and inanimate objects and start kicking shit that gets in the way. It looses it's appeal pretty fast in any setting. Not sure what to make of this - love the former aspect/journey, hate the destination I suppose. weird - heh Kind of like ice-storms? I feel a similar phenomenon when it comes to accretion thick enough to bend down intercontinental journey line towers. The meteorological aspects are an utterly enthralling run up. That appeal disappears about at the same rate as the lights going out, however, finding one standing there realizing that the only thing in the universe given to you is your ability to take a next breath in a paralyzed stasis of silence and inability to do much of anything else - In fact, I'd say ice storms are probably even a more extreme version of this dichotomy of intents and purposes LOL

Did you see the 12z NAM my my... Has a pig surge of theta-e/CAPE and torridity punching to southern NH but ..granted it's a late arrival in the afternoon. In this hemisphere - however - I wouldn't have any compunctions about speeding up the timing of the total synoptic manifold there - which 'might' mean earlier warm air mass intrusion in the atmosphere/afternoon. Logon bounces to a 2-meter potential of 30 C by 00z Sunday, so probably 21z is the warm front timing on this 12z cycle - again ...negotiable in my mind. That's the fuel.. Lapse rates are so-so, but - LGA, to 32 2-meter now!! Might be trending ... - the mechanics/forcing come by way of a pretty impress mid lvl ( 500 mb but didn't check the U/A or 700 ), right entrance nosing into NY/PA during the afternoon and it's a more a unidirection shear bomb with modest direction probably supporting a kind of quasi derecho or in the least bowing segmentation. SPC has us in a marginal hashing now and my experience - and yours I'm sure - on any D3 conv. outlook for New England, that'll likely get bumped to 'slght' by the time whence.

Two states in the Union have theoretical herd immunity as of this morning: Maine and Massachusetts. Edit, actually CT, VT ..there are others. But the majority still trail behind - I've read that to be 58 % need be unavailable to virus penetration as the lowest 'magic' barrier. Now, .. that may not be accurate ? I've also read 64 .. 78 etc. It seems intuitive to me. Really, I want to say entirely academic. One number-percent cannot fit all; that cannot apply everywhere. Variables of an unevenly distributed demographic spread, one that is also 'nonsessile,' means that value simply has to vary based upon regional distinctions. 44 may be sufficient for more rural areas, where say .. 78 may be required in a denser urban hustle and tussle - or skirt township population next to those and so forth. I"m sure you need 100% in a typical Walmart where marvels of hygiene wobble around. My point is, we are not at herd immunity as a whole country, combining vax together with those organically resolved. Yet, daily new loading is routinely < 20K at the U.S. scale. The other aspect is that it is a sign of dim intellect to think that any such HI percent has to be reach before seeing responses in the general population case loading. The numbers will begin to fall before that event horizon is breached. But I feel the current 'pre-fall' is being accelerated when combined with other variables, such as natural tendencies to come out of hiding and spread out - i.e., 'distancing' ? - may be helpful. Just maybe. Texas to me was perhaps a canary in the coal mine that something about the general sardining/sheltering of population into households, when a single member may or may not have been exposed ... At first, for a month... that might 'slow' matters? But it also acted as a petri-dish to protract matters into a longer ordeal, as each household made one case all but guarantee it becomes more than one case. Just a hypothesis - don't freak. It might have been an uncertainty and assumption, and one that was then promoted by big media as more factual - to the point of gaslighting you if you ventured out. Because it DEFINITELY suited them well to keep you scared and locked away with nothing else to do but shorten your life in anxiety by blue light of your smart phone as you thumb swipe through their illusory landscape of a reality coming to get you! Thus, their angles ...it is plausible they actually helped the spread of this thing during those mid winter pillars in the curves, by helping to foment zeitgeist that prevented spreading out - thus continuing to concentrate germs in dense clusters of people. Texas relaxed. It seemed almost as though a less daunted, rather surprising optimistic result was what? - too much in conflict with the Industrial Media Complex's "shimmering paragon of ethics and journalistic integrity" - hint hint. So it got reported, but with rusty pop and brevity, so that the other sells languished and length appealing to primal fear, and the masses would stay hooked to doom instead. There are three wars going on here. The entrails of SAR-CoV-2 clean-up; the ramification and quantization of damages ( psycho-babble to economics and back); the media Machiavellian revving of incendiary equivocation engine to enhance their Q'erly profits. At the other side of herd immunity, there is just maintenance for ever. Thanks to China's negligence ( or test run ... heh - ) during bio-engineering, in a covert bio-warfare research program that the rest of the world will never be exposed to as truth, Humanity has now delivered onto big pharma's plate a deliciously new vaccine econ to add to the Spanish fluid genomic descendance - nice goin'

00z Euro nearly misses a single day synoptic-heat burst on Sunday, tho. Thrust is S of us, but as is we side swipe by +16.5 C at 850 mb. In west wind, sun thru modest ceiling RH will probably send the temp over 2-meter/machine model output given the usual locals. I'd say 92 to 94 adjusting for Euro vision. It's weird, that short wave late Saturday doesn't have any backside CAA. It gets warmer on Sunday. That whole look out there between Sat next Tuesday or so, it almost smacks as a -EPO dump, where a trough punches down the Canadian high country, and tips the flow up the eastern seaboard ( temporary); and as the -EPO collapses, this sends the +PNA rise. That's why these two have a lagged positive correlation. -EPO/-PNA --> tend to end up in a +EPO/+PNA, because the -EPO ridge retros toward the SW...etc. I realize that 10 out of 100 users have a clue what I'm talking about but - you can always google this shit and use the web for something other than e-addiction to cultural pap. Lol - nah. Anyway, not exactly ? But it looks like this highly amplified +PNA out there is sort of mock behaving that way, and it may be enough to sneak a low grade heat 88-93 up our way. Either way, it ends with that trough finally rotating through southern Canada mid week - albeit, probably at a slightly lesser ampilfied total beef than the models are showing - that's been almost a 1::1 correlated dependency error; both Euro and GFS, these models are automatically 10 to 30% some odd over mechanically drafting anything between D 4 + they see out there. Then, we end up with something less gorked when it gets < than ~ D4.5

It really appears to me there is a kind of multi-season pattern of predictable tendencies, relative to calendar times - the whole year has a predictability to it. The new seasonal profile is here. October/Nov snows (and I feel those Dec snow storms that are prior to Xmass fit this) --> raging gradient destructive interference winters --> blocky springs with variable record heat modulating wildly to late cold/snow and back --> an early summer heat wave that retrogrades west into a +PNAP anomalous circulation that still host some warm temperature if by virtue of the hemispheric footprint still being in summer hgts. That's it. That's been each year, and seems this overall paradigm has been reproducible since 2010 .. 2012. No, not exact - hence the term "tendency"