Typhoon Tip

We could be +1 this September, but as an artifact against climatology, not against the circumstances of the larger scales. not meaning to lecture here. Observations i've come across, so fwiw - Simple version: +1 against climate; - 2 relative to that larger hemispheric circumstance. This distinction is important, hugely More deterministic obs: the GEFs have been highly concerted in the nightly EOFs as of late, pointing to a robust positive PNA mid month. Granted the index/modes are supposedly less correlated now then they will be later on in OND ... and so on. I have a problem with that assumption, however. Many who are sick of my harangue on the subject matter ..might know that I have been pushing an idea for years really: the HC expansion is speeding up the geostrophic medium near the slope into the Ferrel latitudes. There is empirical proof of this ... which in the interest of brevity ( haha, too late!) I won't get into.. but, the implications of a faster atmosphere: for one, it materializes/organizes into R-wave structures earlier - that's just basic wave mechanical arguments. Understanding that modulating force ... I'm not sure we can dispense of a +PNA mode that looks like recent as mere seasonal noise. Looking at the behavior of the mass fields between Hawaii and "Californication" (heh) among the individual 30 members ( between D7 and 14 ), some minor suggestion for prototype R-wave distribution that more coherently fits/leads the +PNAP extension downstream over N/A. That's a cooler look for the NP/GL/OV/NE ... Noted, we put up at least one heat wave this year during a positive PNA mode, possibly related to summer index, poorer significance. But with the actual circumstance of the trough between Hawaii and CA, that's rattling that assumption just the same. We'll see if that emerges more or fades. The operational ends up with an ablated ridge and no heat swell above 35 N across the U.S. as of the 00z run at all. Yet it has little trough over that region of the Pacific ... so it may be flag of model instability there. Lastly, the last 4 cycles of the EPS means have been pancaking the 'camel hump' non-hydrostatic ridge signal in the mid CONUS D7-10. That's lending to the operational Euro being a bit of a warm outlier with +3 SD 850 mb air layer it's sending to Detroit D's 9/10. I don't have as much/a lot of confidence in a warm mid month... the ultra short version ha! I'm just not sure that the offset will be relative to climate, or relative to the hemisphere - again, there is a crucial distinction there.

That’s right - as far I understood. CH4 absorbs very strongly … the 3.5 and 8 micron WL almost quite specifically, and very efficiently, which are in the IR That said … the suns total spectral light carries IR along with all else - I’m curious what was meant

Yeah I added to that post lol

Yeah I fixed the typeo

Not sure if any of y’all remember the guy but Willard Scott passed this morning. “Today Show” circa 1980 … 87 years old I think I might have been 5 .. 7 yrs old and that was the first TV weatherman I watched. .. He was like a gateway drug. For I soon was exposed to better highs with local affiliates … then the early good yrs of TWC arrived and completed my journey to full-on heroine Heh … actually it was the Cleveland Superbomb that checked me into rehab as the full-on addict … and two years later … the EF3 (older rating system) tornado that carved a trench though Kalamazoo’s downtown that was the OD

What an epic epic finish to that Sox game

I agree ... For those into the seasonal progression aspect, this is a good take - The idea of 'back broke' Brian and I were discussing the subjectivity of it last week.. I sort of don't think of today as back-broken, *BUT* that is relative to previous climate ? It's kind of backward/confusing... in 1990, an 81 like today's high appears in reach, with sun on the equator side of the equinox, it's pretty darn warm and summery by that era back then. ( also there is a want of breaking backs and getting on with winter, so - ) The DPs are lower, granted. But it's too warm, but *maybe* it is how the back breaks in this modern time. We broke the back ..but it isn't offering the cool complexion that is more typical of the previous climate. What a headache Ha. That said, the hydrostatic heights are still well above 560 dm. So, despite the llv dry troposphere the whole troposphere is not autumn by the previous era, either. But maybe it is/gonna be now/in the future. I remember in college, an 85 under a 564 dm column, in summer, was common back then. And that was July/ ...early august. I think the trough getting hooked up with Ida "faux" broke the back so to speak. The amplitude sort of cheated and delivered an air mass that frankly, reminded more of those cool times in July, when it was 66/58 and raining so often then... I dunno where I'm going. I wanna get on the other side of the mid month, non-hydrostatic continental camel hump look out there. After that, the back breaks ...maybe at the same time the season plunges - like an all at once. If that mid month warm up breaks heat records, we didn't really break prior. That'll probably be an opinion only owned by me .. buut LOL I'm still believing we snow in October, or observe fantastic swings between snow supporting air mass and 70 or even 80 F, btw. Again, due to the ongoing issue with seasonal prolapsing associated with sped up geostrophic velocities in the ambient hemisphere. That's been a recurring autumn aspect, regardless of ENSO or solar cycle or SETI getting signals and tinfoil hat weirdos talking to gods. It's been triggering earlier and earlier than normal R-wave coherence. Long words for, winter patterns kicking in ahead of schedule, as a consequence to the former.

There's no 'contest' there ... ? The point is, the significance of the climate impact can be ubiquitously shared, and no one region particularly "deserves" special attention. But that's just an opinion, but one I'm pretty certain you'll find IS ubiquitously shared among the general ambit of climate scientists et al.

I realize this site's overseer(s) are in a sort of anathema over COVID talk ... Frankly, after thousands of Internet pages, that really were repeating content ... reduxed with different words as though it were all novel ideas and discoveries, but really was just saying the same shit relentlessly... One can understand. I certainly don't mean or want to flout that agenda. This isn't about/for the pandemic. It's about how Humanity isn't allowing the Darwinian forces from operating, those that in Nature's miraculous genius, emerged on this world in order to perfect the skill and trade of any of it's countless genomic members [ necessarily ..] dialed into the 'Gaia system': https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/09/04/1034217306/ivermectin-overdose-exposure-cases-poison-control-centers Soooo ludicrous I couldn't even finish reading the article out of disgust.

Essentially ... the playoffs have begun. Glancing around the standings, Tampa Bay is the outlier ( but I still wonder if their correction vector points back to the other division leaders...), otherwise, the other division leads are all 78 .. 79 wins. Some owe games/post-pones, so those need to be played. Until that happens, parity among the top contenders is actually including those that may end up play-in as wildcards. It is as though the playoffs have begun. This recent 3-game win streak was probably a season defining momentum ... perhaps savior to the season. Why? The combination of the parity, with the timing of this win streak. If they had gone another week in a .500 tepidity, while the other division leads played even .600 ball, historically the 3 game win streaks don't seem to parlay in those situations. It becomes the difference of controlling their own destiny, vs having to wait for other team's losses. I like their chances in controlling this weekend's Cleveland series. For one, the season series, so far, has this match-up clearly in Boston's favor. The momentum in team-rivals is an obvious intangible advantage. But also I don't think Cleveland pitching matches very well against Boston line-up, perhaps idiosyncratically - our guys just spray off their pitchers. The saying goes, 'just win every series.' Certainly true. However, with the parity being what it is, ... yeah a sweep or two thrown into the mix needs to break the parity and move them up the standings. With 9 IL'ed core members being replaced by this tactic of unknowns - it isn't a sustainable [ usually ] gample. Opponent pitchers/ defenses will 'figure them out' eventually. The rookie flash inevitably flat-lines to a .180 earth. With COVID, they had no choice, and it has worked for the last three games. And I have to admit, it seems like the pit is more electrified and exuberant in the game-casts. Maybe the prior specter of the 9 IL was hanging over them, drawing them into a malaise that never ends well.

Imagine if the 6.7 quake on the Merrimack fault happened right then -

Red Sox have 9 ILer’s out on COVID protocols … W. T. F. yet they just finished a 3 game win streak and are still in the the conversation for Wild Card .. I mean the Yankees got their guys back and a week later put up 14 wind in a row. I didn’t realize it was that bad down at the Fens

I wonder if their homes have retractable domes. But seriously … in today’s technological wonders, being as they are, how much would it really take to outfit a home with a dome that closes like a tiny version of a retractable roof at a baseball stadium … closes shut tighter ‘n bull’s ass at fly time. Shit a category 5 wind would be an enjoyable white noise for sleeping peacefully.

Accept that the heat in the Pac NW and lower B.C., which rightfully started the monitoring focus… killed ~400 people - and by the way regionally, New Jersey’s part of the Northeast US… just sayn’

I ran 6 mi … little warm when the sun shone but spectacular when shade.

They usually are as a base canvas. they start with the climate trend sweep. That means there’s an assumption-probability to go above normal before applying any synoptic biases. If the latter is neutral you’re left with above probabilities… Weaker to stronger the probability to 30 40 … 50% depending. In short the synoptics signal is probably not strong enough to completely compensate for the canvas, but is enough to lower/raise the probability of above normal. Not you per se but people need to realize that those colors have percents associated with them; it just means above or less above chances that’s often confused because the colors look hot ? Anyway, in the winter time when I see any negative at all I think it must be a pretty impressive pattern at this point because it is overcompensating acceleration - the curve has been nonlinear in climate change

Looks like it crossed the 15th parallel closer to 42 W ...where as that EPS mean has it crossing(ed) back near 40 (~40.5W) That subtle variance means almost nothing in the near term ... but could imply there is a model bias-tug to pull it N prematurely in general. Other than that ... yeah, the attitude in the models has stopped .. or even reversed in some cases, trying to draw Larry out early. There was steady left correction for about three days ...not huge, but 100 to 200 naut mi per cycle, more noticeable accumulated by the 96 to 120 hour range. 00z last night behavior stopped pretty hard. Watch the convection flaring east of the TUTT off the SE U.S. coast ... that could dump some latent head E and S of whatever that is. For that matter, am noticing the TUTT has a pretty robust circulation identity - The "Schwoeglerian" almost wonders if these guidance' are using it/mistaking it as a steering field.

Yeah ha ...right. Like "Finished coffin .. ehhm, I mean basement space"

That is absolutely ... chin felled wide-eyed startling!

It's an interesting aspect... I feel the entire Ida story, from inception to impact, to the last chapters ... must also include the strike upon civility that took place the other night up in the upper M/A and immediately ensuing en routes of southern New England - despite the 36 to 48 hours of lull that took place after the initial landfall over the LA perishes. The loss of civil infrastructure more so in one sense; human casualty became of the tragedy of the latter. And while the guts of the killer only seemed dead while they lurked as a deceptive vesper-swirl on satellite over the lower OV/TV regions, who would have portended the doom better than the models - which seemed too preposterous [ perhaps ] to pull the trigger with a longer lead of popularized warnings... (it seems the best circuitry to turn on awareness in our culture, is through celebrity). Either way, without that swirl getting entangled in an early autumn polar jet field, Ida's story would have ended in just a novella instead. And while I don't think anyone's argued otherwise ( I hope... ) from the annuls/accounts, to the analytics and back, I hope they all describe a totality that begins with the assault on Louisiana, and ends in this fake shot across the bow air mass we enjoy today - a touching way to finish that story, just like the angel's "Ave Maria" after the death knell near the end of Fantasia.

We’ll … it’s worth the eye candy tho - right. jeez

Rodriguez is having a seasonal night… Just when they need it, if they can get this game … Splitting against a team you’re down by 10 games in the same division is huge

Oh crap can you delete this my bad …

Rodriguez is having a seasonal night… Just when they need it, if they can get this game … Splitting against a team you’re down by 10 games in the same division is huge …go

Better hope this doesn't trend left and get captured by that New England trough because this would be very bad heh