Typhoon Tip

Just throwin' it out there... The chances of any one location getting pegged by a tornado classification that is in of its self, exceptionally rare ... mm, I don't know. Might just be a good night at the Blackjack table, but the 'night' in this metaphor is 20 years long.

Have y'all been paying attention to the drought in Cali/OR/Wa and the SW ? wow huh - It's June, and dry season is about to begin. We're looking at environmental impacts that are typical in early September in the 'normal climate dry years' Shutting down reservoirs and ( granted it is CNN trying to foment thumb swipes, mouse clicks and T.V. channeling ) setting off plausible riots over potable water sourcing - Meanwhile, this eerily tall ridge dome out there in the modeling mid range is threatening to pop and flood its lava down to the L.A. shores, possibly up as far as N. Central Valley of California. Some of us mentioned two months ago that we were worried about the hot season out west, this year. I was not part of that group of posting(s) but nod head - jesus christ. I mean, I'm looking at 2 meter temps in all guidance. Granted the whole synopsis appears to only last for 3 or 4 days but two of them suckers are 109 to 115 up-down the Central Valley, and given the resolution of products, its hard to tell if the typical marine restorative BL flow is really even protecting the shores/cities at this point. I can't imagine if that air were to some how get west of the coastal ranges and spill off shore. It probably won't? but man.

it was suppose to rain dunnite? ha, wasn't/haven't been paying any attention.

Probably there's also an 'ethnic, racial and economic' stigma - that's really at the pith of it ( just imho - ) People do carry stereotypes - everyone does. Get real. Stereotyping is not bad, really - liberals told us it was in the 1980s and culture is still trying to cancel what evolution provided humans with, eons ago: the ability to surmise threat from a distance. It is what happens after stereotyping has been either supported, or proven to have been the faux interpretation. That's when it becomes racism or ethnic prejudice ...blah blah Now... not taking sides/dimensions, just my observations. But that density, I strongly suspect that appeals to the stereotype mechanism, as meaning affordability to the proletariat class; which is more aptly peopled by minority ethnic groups, which are racially ( often ) distinguished, and have less than bigger economic ownership. That's a fact Liberals - not saying it is right. But the guess-work is not without empirical truism. ...And people wanna seem liberal and Kumbaya in one had, while preserving their enclave from being diluted. You called it amenities - that's fine for me. But I also think it is tribal 'superiority' aspect that is seldom admitted, too. "Oh great - their goes the neighborhood"

I have weird fantasies about using the scale of the Earth's various systems to set off apocalypse experiments, just for morbid curiosity if not deviant lust for mayhem LOL Like, taking a 5X5X100 mile slab of African trade belt, TW transporting air, and just plunking that mass down out amidst the expanse of the Antarctica continent, well within the ring of polar jet that eternally imprisons that cryo Hades off from the rest of the world. Pop corn and beer the result from a live-fed vantage -array of geo stationary satellites, into a movie theater cinema show. Let's go to the movies! Or how about, snapping one's fingers and having the water temperature of the Labrador current be like 98 F to a thermocline depth of 100 meters - flick.

Other aspect for me is ...if we are talking about 30 -year means, be it last century or recent grouping, I would think that point variations would tend to obscure by noise and they tend to wash out more similarly. Unless their local setting has a bigger bicep environmental variation that differentiates the too - heh, like comparing Logan to BDL. Or even EWR to LGA. Where's AVP ? Isn't that Scranton PA? ...CON NH may be far enough N that although they may be situated similarly/safely away from the back of the Labrador ball-sack, latitude prolly just becomes a factor in the sensitivity at them two points.

No - still, 4 is a bit much. It may be that the climate norms have exploded by that much - if so, it's just a point of awe if that is the case. No argument - like I said, it was an admitted first impression. - the other aspect about those numbers is the max T's - forget the climate part for a moment. I don't think I have seen a week of average results in 20 years; yet that GFS ( go wonder ) sells. It just lusts to cancel warmth at any excuse imagined I've come to find. If not obvious at a model glance, it just stenches of across all of its products suites, from numeric to synopsis; it's always finding and seeking the cool side. - half sarcastic here.

Yeah...that's what I figured off the bat but 4 ? seemin' kind of much.

Nothing better to do at the moment so I'll throw in a knee-jerk surmise as to why that "might" be: The GFSX (MET) is still based on the previous 30-year mean. The new Nabisco cooked numbers from the meshed up new idea may be basing that on the recently updated climate range - impetus being that recent decade(s) have seen a robust increased in x-y-z. Having said that, 4 F both, in the low and high, is an odd coincidence. Sort of tilts one to wonder if that's just some operator error. Also, 4 F is a lot of CC for one site; seems to exceed the global signal.

Seasonal lag is not really done at his latitude yet, that's why.

Yeeeah, I'd probably side with the Euro on that. Granted it may and probably does have its own biases to iron out being beyond D4 but jesus H christ That's a highly uncoupled total mass distribution, having a +2 ST ridge over the Great Basin, and a -4 SD trough carving down Ontario in the east. This is that egregiously reliable GFS' surplussing cold heights in troughs beyond D4. It also cumulatively lowers the polar/Ferrel regions and dominates the hemispheric with almost inorganic looking wind velocities - certainly anachronistic to summer. We are not in a comet impact recovery here - I tell you though, if that thing ever did pass over head under a June sun, there'd be cannon ball hail

Mmm ... not that you're posing any sort of argument here - it just gets me thinkin' Much of the real motivation isn't that. I hear it all the time, and it smacks as flimsy ( pun intended..), a veneer in pragmatics and spin evasion. - what follows is nagging anxiety that their sense of community will get denatured (forcibly) and diluted, lose its identity and to a greater extent, their advantages - calling a spade a spade while we are at it. What's really at stake is mashed up form of tribal-elitism. So in that sense, the deeper psyche in the matter is likely more about preservationism of their own habitat. In a lot of ways, humans have territorial instincts - we just play and act on those in vastly complex means compared to other warm blooded whatevers -

I also see similarities in some of the construction synopsis of his thematic arcs - It strikes me as 'formulaic' - but I do not mean to lower the lights on the brightness of his works, either. There may be, I wonder, some reliance on a reproducibility - as literature blue print, and then the building the beef in that recycled frame finds a proficiency, one that allows huge volume over the span of a career. There are plenty of writers that wrote brilliantly, spanning just two or three novels and maybe a handful of short stories, an ode and a eulogy. It just seems that prolific content gets too big to be purely organic, just the same. It's interesting... but sometimes he strikes me as a Thomas Kinkade of literature, ensemble lining top shelf material.

Somehow America works ... so far ( eh hm) But the gears are greased by hypocrisy in the society machine, and subtle compromises are made every day in 'acceptable conflicts of interest'.

Well yes then ... My snarky cynical barb about the trial run-through is precisely related to that, actually - his story just puts the building material into the two sentence frame LOL

I haven't, no. But, I do like many of his film-adaptations. If that can be used as maybe a bass-ackward indicator ? - the story must be very good. I don't know if it is is because the source ( his novels) are so good, or if it is just because they happened to translate into the cinema medium so lucidly, but it has always intrigued me how/why those Jack Ryan movies are so compelling. I have not actually read one Clancy novel. Yet, "Hunt For Red October" is one of those films in my mind needs to have it's own museum space. Digression: like the first "Star Wars," or "Close Encounters of The Third Kind," or "Gone With The Wind" ( although I personally hate that movie), "Wizard Of Oz," maybe "Fantasia." "Pulp Fiction" is also in that elite list, and I am sure there are others that get their space. There are lot of honorable mentions, and it's naturally going to be a subjective list. However, those HM films don't quite seem to ear mark eras nor transfix culture in quite the same way. There are a thousand good movies. I am sure people want to include, if even insist they are in that transcending group. But really ...those are more personally resonating; so momentously that they'll insist. Intimacy with the cinema experience isn't the same as 'culturally influential bombs', though. "Clear And Present Danger" and "Patriot Games" were HM, so he's weighted in the good end of the pool. Where the hell was I going...oh, yeah, see, I have a short story I am working on called "Weighting On Doom." Your mentioning "Rainbow Six," with 'intent vs happenstance, strikes me as similar just on the merit of that turn of phrase, alone. In the short story I'm working on, human darkness is ubiquitous. The forces of rapacity and ambition are not uniquely shared. Thus, the "art" of conspiracy is both shared by real orchestration, as much as its specter can be an emergent property - i.e., by accident. I actually refer to these emergent complexions as "soft conspiracies" - it's when A and B and C appear they must be connected, but really aren't. Now, I don't know what you meant precisely by the bold ( lol ) but is sounds similar. Basically, when all of humanity is out to f*k one another, and since we are in principle coming from the same mindful derivative of ( intents + purposes + capacity ), the mathematics of violating Commandments tends to design the same in every direction. We all pump from bum to front Enter in that we are, by nature, uniquely wired as walking, talking, pattern recognition software, it is not a huge guess as to where this is going - people are predisposed see the designs. That gives the allusion of conspiracy, either way. It's actually how the parasite of conspiracy - real ones - fool like viruses, because the 'design' blends into the weeds of human conception in all of its intents and purposes; no different than points of randomly placed lights in the firmament create constellation of archers and mythic monsters. So while we sort out the truths from fictional, conspiracies use that uncertainty as its greatest ally.

Not sure...all home sites tied to Wunder within a two clicks were 92 to 94 yet KFIT was 90. Usually the mean of the aforementioned will = KFIT's NWS but not the case this day. either way 90/72 or 92/72 ...it was 'tween pig butt cheeks today. And, we get dry rubbed by the cold front so now ahh transition event. F'er

Lol - one way or the other, perhaps. It was a bit of a race - between patience as a general cultural tenor, collapsing in revolt, vs some semblance in the over arcing theme of the Pandemic's gestation that a salvation was nearing. That latter came in just in time. SO, a vaccine was produced in unheralded short amount of time, so fast as to wonder if the arc of science was fully executed. LIke, almost as though it was already invented ? hmm kidding - But, that gave some sort of vibe of resiliency back and the airs of humanity and society were more willing for the perseverance to wait it out. Sarcasm aside, I do think that if there wasn't that salvation in sight, the salvation would have come by turning attention aside. It's just a sociological hot-take but one I advanced early on in this, and can argue evidences were beginning to emerge suggesting break points were nearing - then the vaccine waved through. And one way or the other, its basically over.

Yes sir for convection enthusiasts, hope the general construct is dependable

jesus christ with that place

This whole ordeal was a dress rehearsal - a test, to see if RNA delivery systems can be used efficiently on live targets for the eventual d-day trigger event. Population and resource procurement is an unattainable, unsustainable physical impossibility so...wipe out 97% of the population, leave the tech infrastructures and libraries in place. Boom, problem solved. Enough pop density for a viable species health remains alive, and the wheel doesn't have to re-invented.

I mean 90/72 here and there is a visible cu field N-W of here with some crispy towers ... Thing is, you can erupt really, really fast with this kind of environment. 90/72 + a cold front = notice, I suppose

This memo just came across our desks the National Weather Service (NWS) is forecasting scattered thunderstorms for the interior portions of the state this afternoon into early evening. The greatest risk for thunderstorm activity is between 2pm- 8pm as a cold front pushes through the region, ending the heat and humidity. The primary threat with these storms is frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and urban/poor drainage flood potential along with a secondary threat for strong to damaging winds and hail. umm really

Well sure. Lac is getting pretty close to the boundary anyway so heh, impetus on "quasi stationary" - I hate that expression anyway. I mean, they'll analyze these boundaries as stationary, as it is moving south on every analysis Annoying. Anyway, yeah yeah... got are we bored LOL

My point is... if one is basing the frontal position on DPs, that may not be right