Typhoon Tip

Take the smeared guts of a TC and flop it over the top of a baroclinic axis that has modest synoptic lift support by weak 500mb jet running by enhancing lift, and you get deposition results that end up much, much larger than the sum of the individual parts going into the ordeal. Synergistic flood. The PWAT alone is hefty but not enough - or is it? The jets of the synoptic field are weak and wouldn't do it. The boundary isn't impressively defined, but is enough there to define an elevated frontal slope, nonetheless... I think it is interesting that model physics 'see' that synergy. The next 6 hours of now-cast and observations may also be useful in this, up stream ... See how the hourly bucket rates are comparing to model omens there over NE PA and so forth.

I'm shocked lol

Definitely can see it's elevation dependent for heaviest snowfall in this ...

You guys have just ratcheted this up to such a euphoric expectation it can only fail

It seems like everyone has a different high with that CBD drug.

In 1978 the Yankees closed a 10 game gap in Sep.

Ekersley just lost it. “…This seasons over; you can’t be 10 games out on Sept 1!” tone to match disgust What a shame Red Sox were numero uno a month or whatever ago and now they’re fighting to hold onto a wild card spot and slipping … They got a bunch out on COVID. But also their pitching shit it’s self. They could just end up in a hole too deep to even recover from even if they get hot

Actually I like the title this thread lol

Agree with BOX .. this is exactly what I said earlier ... "Wednesday will be all about the remnants of Ida. Just about all of the 12Z guidance has not only sped up the eastward progression of Ida, but also shifted the track farther north as well. As such, it is more likely that the center of what was Ida should be approaching or region late in the day. More interaction with a mid level trough and shortwave will make this system more like a typical Nor`easter than."

Mm, why not. Only I'd do it under the auspices of just being a robust anomaly rain event, only - Ida's history. Or maybe wait and have an obs thread ?

The proficiency of the phasing in the Euro is astounding ... That's one helluva synergistic wave amplitude/trough closed result there. Someone up there in eastern Ontario is getting wind warning easterly jet over the top of that.

Not to inflate those odds or nothin' ... .don't need to do that around here lol but, the idea of the early recurve is/was more baseline topography of statistics given to the expanse of the basin and time, combined. These CV systems are always favored to turn early by virtue of that. It seems as tho the models shed steering out in time, and then the beta-drift takes over which biases the track right - once there it get hooked up with the westerlies... completing the turn on the D 7-9 Once in a blue moon, a CV cyclone evolves and the models keep it south on a west motif ...But, I think if we looked at all historic modeling for systems that affected the Americas, that were of CV origin ... it wouldn't shock me if more than half were modeled to either turn early, or had the duck tail toward the right motion in the extended, but corrected left along their way. Of course and obviously, some also do turn early.

yup... weak nor'easter with an unusual package of PWAT to dispose of ...

Bill gave the frolicked locker-room jocularity bid it's go in 2020 ... It's not a tact he likes or probably more like 'respects' very much, being apropos. Then COVID and other BS interceded and though he's a well education very rational guy, he is human ... ( not the emperor in 'Jedi), and his bias against the former ways and means of team management, having a short rope, my hunch he was itching for it anyway. So, he wants to get back to the model that he's use to winning with - a Gestapo camp, where the personnel on the field are too terrified of stepping out side the machinery of the system. What better way to do that than to can the 'cool guy.' The specter of the most popular guy in the locker-room, walking for the exit, chin down. It's got an upside in his mind - he gets to play the shrewd inside mogul, while in reality he's done with the shenanigans. Win win, as he feels the tangible AND intangible favors winning. Hey, it worked before - right ? Sorta - I mean, TB leaving, and then summarily, the organization puts up a barely audible above 500 year and fails the playoff cut isn't a great look. Meanwhile said QB saunters on down to TB ( no pun intended ...) and oh by the way, throws another trophy up on his legacy and brings TB back to discussion for a few years. But hey, COVID got in the way ... maybe. And once is not a valid sample set ...Bill gets to "hide" behind that by accident or design. In the meantime, Jones scored on every single drive he Quarterbacked during the preseason. Every one. Be it a TD or FG, he scored. Cam did not do this. What he did do, is jeopardize the organization with a COVID scare, after he already jeopardized the organization last year, ...with a COVID scare. That too, is/was not a good look. And the human side of the espouse master strategist maaaybe just sort of go pissed off at the guy, too.

You can see the suggestion of ET completion across this NAM progression of charts. starts off as a paltry 1001 low down there and rides up in latitude and then encounters this frontal drape.. suddenly it deepens to 995 mb and takes on frontal tapestry in a more coherent form. This is Nor'easter folks.. It has a pWAT advantage due to toting along some legacy there, but it's definitely a Nor'easter in the NAM. Not a particularly deep one, either - low pressure. So I wouldn't hold out for much wind in that solution, N-W of the low track....unless you're at or above 2500' el

This lead frontal axis that's stalled along the south coast .. might be 'sorta' telling. The models may be over doing it on the position of that front. The track of the transitioning low is going to run ~ along that feature. Stronger, a little north ... weaker, where ever the front is at the time it ripples through. Just using the various free products to the public off the web ...the models look like they want this front to press S more. However, I'm not seeing a huge momentum actually happening right now. I'm interesting in if the models (12z et al ) may adjust N some as 'detection' materializes less inhibition in the lead environment if/when the front is in fact positioned farther N.

Modest flooding on main streams rivers and perhaps low end-moderate on intermediate tributaries ... So I guess the bottom third of Little League green oil drum garbage can under water either by a field puddle or the near-by brook over its banks. next -

The 10C response ... some of us are middle age and at this point sense less time ahead than behind, and don't wanna wish the time away by rushing the next chapter of anything existential ha - Embrace the moment, you only get ~ 41,000,000 of them. And autumn will get here ... just as assuredly as one day you will die

Bring it here...

I guess it's entirely subjective anyway but ... for what it's not worth anyone, that bold range there ..particualrly the top side, is above normal summery air most afternoons prior .... circa the 21st sun. But whatever - I think of abrupt ends as lower DPs and 'smells like frost' at 10pm even though it's still 50 - ha. Maybe it's CC ... like, this is the new "smells like frost" ... I mean July had a week that averaged -10 or something too - another way to look at how silly the discussion is to even engage. LOL There's also an elephant in the room that many just don't like summer, never did, don't want it. So their leaning on it such that the first indication of anything at all puts them in Thanks Giving mode. That's dicky sarcasm in general -

It feels like we've endured more that two occasions resulting 3" of rain, with lots of .4 to .9" days scattered around in between since July around here. Yet no pond or river is really above normal flow rate. It's weird. I realize June was dry ...sort of... but it seems like we are way over climo (I'll probably go check in a minute and find out we're not lol). It's like the geology left the drain uncorked under the land.

06z Euro seemed more interesting for a conversion to Nor'easter out of Ida's remnants. 00z just prior wasn't so much. In fact the 12z yesterday and the 00z last eve split Ida's guts away from the N-stream - this N-stream is a very weak jet structure with only one or two isohypses defining so it's 'calling' it an N-stream. Nevetheless, some prior runs were phasing Ida with a trough more proficiently, where yesterday's run were 'sperm' missing the 'egg' lol anyway, the 06z ...hard to say if that is a more phasing back, or if Ida is just more inertial in the flow and the run is holding on more. But it looks like it has a warm frontal protrusion toward the upper M/A and a cold front subtended beneath so that argues for more baroclinic - duh, considering where it is at 72 hours, anyway. Either run gives a decent dose of rain but the 06z run looked like it wanted to be more fun with breezes and wind.

Summer has to end .. just a matter of when. Some years it seems to end on a definitive cold front. Other years .. it's a smear. I think this year may be the latter? It seems based upon the 'music' of the ens means and the operational et al., like it will seem like that, but then we'll have too many 80+ days over 60+ DPs to really feel like we've let it go. Personally, I'd like a full sun 74/48 F'er afternoon. Not quite deep autumn ... but the mild air feels fragile. I don't see that anywhere right now....even after the front. Still putting up T1s of 24 C is a warmish 2-meter. So perhaps it is kind of a 'bent over backward' before finally giving in, type of year.

It was at the time a mix. That part of my lawn is actually gonna be converted to a bark mulch rock garden so I’m not terribly concerned about it. having said that… mowing traffic over the course of the summer, the weeds died and the grass came back

Wow, looks like it's slowed down ... sitting there like a umanned circular sander