Typhoon Tip

A phenomenon that actually begins on Feb 10 every year ...haha, but yeah. I was thinking about all this back-broke this, and seasonal transition that, ...while running typical Saturday morning towny errands. There was a kind of unmistakable 'crisp' to the morning zephyrs passing through the partially opened windows. Dew still clinging to rear window as the sun steeply sloped, shattered through their little cool water droplet prisms. If that were all there was ... the back was surely broken. Longer op-ed: It's really kind of hard to gauge where we are in the seasonal transition monitoring for me. My observation is that we are split during mid month, with both seasonal migration evident, simultaneously ..with positive non-hydrostatic heights and anomalies pervasively lingering everywhere S of the 50th parallel. I see those two concurrent aspect going on. Looking at the EPS mean for D6: That is a split continent. The activation of the polar westerlies is clearly presented, with autumn along and quite coherently orienting N of southern Canada. Immediately south of those ~ latitudes, those heights are much much more consistent with ongoing summer - and those heights are anchored by the Global HC shit unfortunately... Now... the proximity of the activated polar westerlies near by will be mean episodic backside confluence ..sending shallow pressure perturbations S. As we know, our geologic curse means that air masses are physically drawn into the area - if given any plausible reason to do so, models will bust and the mass will do so exceeding all expectations. Just a matter of how much or little in the latter sense. So it's not a clean heat signal - these perturbations will be sending low level 925 mb pulses of abrupt air.. etc. But it gets into relativity ...those are irrelevant in describing the hemisphere; but they are entirely relevant to this geographic region. So, those that 'want' the back broken ...win by virtue feeling like it is, when in the larger scope, the Hemisphere may as well be mid July with 20C 850 plumes and 588 to 594 non-hydrostatic height waves rollin' east to merge with WAR like that. Not sure who wins LOL This seems to point to a compression/gradient look trying to establish, too. That westerly jet pushing south against static positive anomalies everywhere between the Iberian peninsula Japan ...i.e., the whole world, is going to create some fantastic autumn jet velocities as this heads deeper into October.

Pattern coming looks more June -like/ reduxy… We just have more in the way of tepid sun.

Also, I wouldn't ignore that feature off the Georgia coast ... With the strengthening WAR tending to extend west that sets that area pretty proper with favorable kinematic layout in general. The models may be merely responding to that numerical instability with those sporadic inverted trough and weak spins ... but, that behavior also means they are 'trying to find' a trigger point in whimsy -

How bit this one - haha ...I've been noticing a coherent anti-correlation between posting and ensuing model depictions ... it's like out to get us

What I find interesting is that negative of mode of the Arctic Oscillation ( late last autumn through the mid DJF period ) preceded the observation net's detection of SSW actually propagating. ...SSWs in the tradition sequence of behavior: Sudden onset of thermal inversion/wave-flux anomalies takes place very high in the PV domain space ... ~> 30 hPa sigma typically. This 'mass' then propagates downward ...usually gaining areal space while shedding the scalar extent of temperature anomaly. Eventually the miasma reaches and interacts with the tropospause. Once it reaches/interacts with that depth, it stablizes the ambient regime; that triggers the PV "break-down" and the advent of blocking nodes formulate like pearls of a garland drape, around the 60 to 70th parallels and on and so on... While that did take place last winter season, it didn't do so until very late in the season - specifically ...as all this relates to the very necessary 'propagation' behavior noted in the traditional model: The annotation imm abv shows that the abrupt ( "sudden" ) onset of warm intrusion aspect was met, ...however, it is unclear whether the mid winter -AO regime dominance was really ultimately driven by the pan-systemic physical interplay between the downwelling plume and the tropopause, which as we can see above ...that particular and crucial behavior did not take place until early spring. That said, the anomalies I personally observed last year were nothing shy of extraordinary and perhaps unprecedented, as it appeared as though the troposphere and the stratosphere entered into a quasi-coupled regime, where the ridge node seemed to transcend through the traditional tropospause sigma levels ... And perhaps by virtue of being so dominate, exacted an almost identical forcing on the Arctic Oscillation, forcing it into the negative mode. In that sence... 'what's the difference then' ... I think there is virtue in attribution effort to 'get it right' .... I am not willing to say that the assumption of SSW is wrong, per se. However, there is missing the critical piece that demonstrates propagation that is part of that SSW --> -AO circuitry.

Man ...that pattern out there is fully enraged hard-on summer, period - Sun will be the only limiting factor by day, but the nights should do their part with ease to ensure a week or longer of lewd total anomalies.

Most intuitive, ...most importantly, responsible intellects will by intuition arrive upon an "extraordinary" conclusion ... less fossil fuel extraction and consumption has to happen. ( shocking, I know - ) In order to curb and hopefully suspend the current extinction order event that is both incontrovertibly attributable to effects/affects during the recent and ongoing, newly declared Anthropocene consequence ... ( long words that = "we did it, and are doing it" ), but is a species-killing era empirically observable, and a scary on-going science in present Biology and Ecology's, anyway. Personal op-ed... in order to form a more perfect orgasm on Earth servicing human-centric interests and needs ... We are not only in a lot symbolic ways, morally reprehensible collective-sociopaths, that perhaps deserve our own extinction, but ... (anger aside) these perils we've now face are a bit like the trope-arc of a dystopian thriller cinema. Up against crunch time when there is seemingly insurmountable momentum to stop the implicit portends and avoid a certain destiny. The force causing the Climate Change has sociological component. ...It takes 1.5 miles to turn a fully loaded oil supertanker when we only got .5 miles of free space before the edge of the world...etc. So you can motivate 8 people to change their modus operandi much quicker than 8 BILLION. Simply put, cannot be reversed in time. But, suppose for moment we are not in fact doom-destined regardless of what we know. What are the doom's day decimals ? The following is just another in a growing body of studies that helps quantize/ .. theorize what is needed to prevent breaching critical thresholds: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03821-8 If these are empirically derived and geophysically determined numbers, and they are in the future, simple logic: that means there is ( in a leap of theory ... not confidence ) time to change and meet those as goals. But I just ... I don't know. No confidence - hope I'm wrong. But in the race against the d-day clock, Humanity has miss-information problem that ties into that sociological perspective/insinuation above. That is like trying tote along dead weight in the metaphoric race - no pun intended. Motivating the giant ballast of total industrial ways and means of a species that by biological consistency/convention of all organisms of this world, needs to have direct corporeal stimulus in order to sense urgency and motivate change? That necessary run-on sentence implies bad enough. Creating an exquisitely proficient means to spread miss-information by nodal nefarium within the couching of that 8 billion wide-eyed absorbers of lies ... that are ill-equipped to categorical thinking in complex matters that escape the capacity to do so, and frankly ... prefer soothing advises that are 'less scary,' ... where's the evidence that quagmire can really be managed? I'm dripping metaphors in this already ... ( sue me, I like them), but, I have mused in the passed that all of these trials and tribulations of our time and all that happens, to, from, in the machinery of ongoing humanity and perceptions guiding its reality - all of it .. I liken it to a large group of people standing around in heated colloquy upon a railroad track, too distracted to hear that the iron of the rails beneath their feet has begun to vibrate and whir. That 'guiding reality' may as well be arguing over the color shoes being warn to the engagement.

It's almost like Schweogler got screwed by that - .because I could almost see or guess that back then the modeling tech might have plotted a more proficient meshing and capture. That wave coming in underneath and enticing the western end of that SPV lobe to dive S, that's actually an attempt at a 'subsume phase' scenario. And you watch out for those. He did get screwed, because albeit a decent event as you say ... the failure to really do so took a B .. B+ storm out of the mouth of an A+ monster

Ha ...aw man. You know, that's not the first time I heard that fellow beware the back lash. I don't know if it was in fact this particular system above, but I do remember around that time ...wondering after he said that, well when is this happening, re the re-intensification. I don't think it ever did? How did that verify ? Anyway, I was geeking out over at the Library and went several weeks of charts and was just gawking at storms in that incredible stretch, and noted that giant high over a decent S/W amid deep cold look on the 20th. It just like the stuff of legends. It's one of those deals where no one worries. By the way, there was also a sneaking decent even there nn January 3rd ... in between that one and the latte 'Megalopolis' storm - kind of gets lost in the shuffle there.

It's like sitting at 4pm on the beach in Tahiti with an umbrella drink, Four hours is a long time though, you bargain internally ...while looms the flight back to mid March back door miasma Boston mere hours away.

That 20th nor'easter, Dec 20 '95 was an amazing set up really. I wonder what the snow totals were on this thing... Here's the set up; note the 19th: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1995/19951218-19951224.pdf

Meh... I interned with him - ... look, he's an earth-toned guy. One of the boys off camera and genuine. No arrogance. No 'celebrity pretense' of any kind. In fact, he doesn't give a shit about that stuff. He doesn't - or didn't back then. I used to hang charts and observe the media process - that was it. You know a kind of funny "Fordism" ( what my buddies call it when my loquacity gets the better of me as an ass-hat ) . The first day I was in the station, he finished what's referred to as 'the teaser' then said, "C'mon, let's go get slice at the Hall, we can talk about it on the way" Faneuil Hall. He was commiserating en route about what a pain in the ass it was to broadcast winter events in our specific market. How people "...Have to hear inches. That's all they want to hear." I'm nodding along "mm hm. Right. Right." "You know? Inches inches inches!" Just then, in my usual proclivity as a Gen-x irreverent dipshit - to which I'm not sure I've even outgrown frankly, I had the temerity to cut him off and add, "...Especially the women..." (omg) He stopped to bend over laughing for moment, "Yeah ha-ha, right!" I told my buddies back that lab they were like you a-haha-hassole. anyway I said I was going to see a camera guy before because I wanted to give some context but never got back to it. I was going to get into it that he and I debated whether that big storm would get this far N. At the time, it was still walled off with the deform axis about to to L.I. I won btw This was also back in the day that we could almost count on the heights/ridging out over the west Atlantic as being just insufficiently enough materialized that storms tended to correct up.

Here's the modest but important west-biased -NAO nearing after the 20th November 1995

Wow - that's exactly what happened, Will Check out this: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1995/19951113-19951119.pdf Note the 14th... That overnight whiplash fropa event on the 12th heralded in the big pattern change, and there was no wasting time. That 5-3" snow/mix deal I'm remembering was most likely that event late on the 14th ...and then looking ahead the rest of that week ( download from the Library ) the pattern was like just not going anywhere with nicely sequenced wave spaced events.

LOL ... right... like, no way in that set up, 18z later on was anything but down like an easy date with a look like that -

That actually is surprising there ... I'm going to go to the NCEP Library site and see what was happening synoptically that day. I really am strained to recall a day that mild toward mid Novie that year, between Acton and UML where I was boppin' around back in those days. I wonder if that some some bootleg deal where their elevation might have got above a dammed layer... I mean, ORH is actually pretty far S in the state so it may have been cooler along Rt 2 that/NE Mass ... Interesting - I am definitely sure that once we got snow on the ground at school, we did not see bare ground again until that thaw later on at the end of January, '96. Maybe the snow/sleet 3-5" deal was on the 13th lol

good summary statement there ...especially 'eerily prophetic' I was attempting to create that haunt by describing the weird way in which the ice on the shade side of the canal/water duct ( which is 60' high at the hydro) was somehow resistent to melt in late Octoer/early November...despite being 50 F afternoons. Rivulets froze by night into icicles and glaze in the 22 F mornings. I think it was the dry air ...really. Those air masses set up spectacular radiation overnights, and as we knows ... 50/low dp is not as destructive to frozen water as 50/50 ... probably allowed the ice to hold on... See, what people don't understand is the shear scale and degree of dork that is me. I notice shit like that... and you're right really - some my look at it and 'feel' ominous in the settting, "why am I looking ice there at this time of year" - boom

You and me both, then ... I don't mind snow early on, and lots of it. Although Halloween and in fact October in general, no. The 1995 autumn was my 'season of perfection,' .. the equivalent of the spirit of your dreams coming back to tell you they were wrong about you, and how they regret casting you asunder, and what they would do if it meant being able to lose themselves in your arms. Lol October was oddly mild, but we kept getting these ultra dry air masses between the 15th and Halloween ( ~). With long nights and still air, the UML campus yellowed broad -leafed maples would frost-load and rain leaves. I remember stopping to observe this .. 8 am one morning as the sun cut through the steam plume from respiration. The bustle of the campus was still minimal enough that in the moment, once could distinctly hear them as they clipped from elevation, filtered down through the branches and other leaves to make contact with the Earth beneath. And you could tell it was specific to that morning's deposition because the layer upon the ground was yellow with pop, partially obscuring the previous like they were old banana peals. It was chilly in the moment... despite the warm month, probably last of the Pinatubo winters ensuing.. But it may have been 28 F, headed for 54 that afternoon. Early November arrives with more like hard freezes. I cannot recall if they were more of just those super radiational cooling nocturnals, or if it was CAA...probably both. I remember there was modest -NAO ( at least ) tendencies over the western limb (NE Canada) early that year, as the Seniors were talking about it within earshot when in the Lab at some point. I should go back and look up the EPO - though I'm not sure the monitoring of that index, if even it's domain, was really very accessible then - probably is via reanalysis. Anyway, water rivulets that squeezed around the granite blocks that were used to construct the Pawtucket canal above the Merrimack River that bifurcates North and South Campuses, was beginning to freeze - similar to the icefalls you see along escarped rock formations around regional highways. I thought it was very early for that... One day in particular, it pm and the sun was setting, and as I was ambling back across the bridge, I noticed that some ice still cleaned to that stone fascia. That didn't melt? I thought. This was all before the snows came in, nice and dreamy early a week later. And since in the years since, I'd never seen that ice occur ... it's like a hidden metric. In any case, somewhere between the 8th and 15th, we had 3-5" of snow/sleet over the Merrimack Valley. CT missed out... In fact, I think it was N of the Pike. But, that cold season advanced early, like an unstoppable Military advance. Every successive event repositioned a non-retreating winter front farther S, and once on the other side ... you let go because you weren't going back. It just got colder... and colder ... and we got several nickle-scaled events. But a bona fide snow pack by Thanks Giving. The modelling at that time was setting up cyclic snow threats - think more primitive web graphics and the 'MRF' and ECMWF available as the early model cinema ... Unysis was one such web site to go to. I wonder if that source even still exists. Despite the primitive early graphics, this was a helluva way advantage over dialing up the DIFAX charts. Oh man - you guys born since have no idea how luxurious your experience is... December arrives ... we had like 15" as a real stratafying snow pack by the 10th, with temperatures equal to the numerical date. I remember walking to WHDH to meet one of the on-camera greats, and having to use pedestrian cleave-through snowbanks after parking the car around the corner from Government Center in downtown Boston. I mean that may be the last time urban Boston and perhaps eastern SNE had a cold anomaly, that early, so extreme - combing with snow no less. The snow still on the sidewalk squealed under foot. It only Dec 10, and we were by then almost a month into weather that by late January was anomalously winter like. Another storm... after which, out around Acton, our snow pack was nearing 20" ...the snow in fact began to settle before melting. I cannot recall exactly what happened between Xmas and NY that year... but the cold didn't relent, and by December 28th I specifically remember, ...what would become known as the great "Megalopolis Blizzard" was beginning to loom at the model's extended range boundary. First that beast was supposed to be mainly S of NYC... but as the days ticked off, the models correct 50 miles N ... and eventually, it did finally clip us here. There was one more storm after that, and the snow total in the yard was a resting 32" deep. I'd never seen that before... not since perhaps the "Cleveland Superbomb" of 1978, January. And the aspect about that was that it all came from nickle-dime events. There was the MB storm mentioned above - but that was really an outlier. The pattern was delivering a steady diet. I actually didn't care much for the end of that winter, that year. We had a thaw that jaw dropped for its ability to erode back that enormous glacier I thought in my primitive environmental awareses years, was all but indestructible. Wrong. Two.5 Minnesota translating cyclones later and we were down to field ponds and snow banks rollin' off steam. I would have fine with that being the final chapter and a hugely early spring that year .. But, winter obtruded back in ... I guess for the fun of getting that year's seasonal snow totals to historic numbers, did have its place.

I'm getting an impression about this last summer (... a season that's really still alive and well despite all intents and purposes to construct observations to the contrary - ) We have been way above normal rainfall. But the distribution has been kindly parsed out ... spaced out enough to achieve a a kind of hydro, 'steady state' in uptake vs release of the land. It's really been like a normal frequency, just dumping huge amounts at those intervals. Even Ida's outlier event, if we remove the huge deposition numbers in water, there's nothing particularly unique about merely observing a big, dead/dying Gulf whirl and smear slowly rotating around the NW periphery of a WAR-like pattern in late August. In short, it's been about events just being hugely seeded. Bloviating opinion: This is/was a Global Warming summer incarnate. Climate modeling science has suggested for decades that among the many varied aspects of the total impact/observation spectrum, would in fact be increasing gaseous water vapor --> PWAT extremes --> event-centric +rain results. DPs were higher than normal this year ... so has been the rain. June was a fantastically warm month. However ( just off the top of one's mind) perhaps > 50% by virtue of having nocturnal, elevated temperatures more so anomalous than the ensuing attached afternoons. Yes there were heat waves to frost the cake. But without those lows being some +10 on month.. that's the real story hidden beneath. That is also a repeating phenomenon noted globally, as also expanded upon in recent IPCCs publications. So, it's been a recurrent theme, anyway. This summer season appears at minimum to be a very vivid and coherent example of that phenomenon, one that probably in reality was even anomalously large relative to that. Here in New England it seems we're always getting cheated some how, some way. I wonder if there will ever occur the elusive New England super heat wave. A competitive anomaly among the pantheon of great France, Britain, Australia, eastern Europe and Siberia's arresting circumstances - speaking, relative to climate. What would that be? It would likely have to occur between late May and late July/early August. We really need the solar max 90 days between May 8 and August 8 to have a shot ... 7-day heat wave where it does this at Logan during the afternoons: 91 (Chicago is an ominous 101), then 99 102* 104** 107** 94 (weak MCS N sent interruption) 105*, phone call to Pentagon... over lows of 84 F... (* record, ** all-time ) I'm starting to wonder if it is just physically too difficult for the Terran systems of interacting geologic and atmospheric forces to actually do. Some regions just do hot(cold) better than others ... 'White Men Can't Jump' Either way, this seems like a summer that cheated to be above normal in heat, accomplished because in order to get the rain we had have the hydrostatic heights being elevated - warmed proximity to that.

Most thrilling end of the year

Man did they need that win … just like that went, too!

It's uncomfortable today .. I mean it's only 84 here but for some reason it's got less patience about it. Was going to do a long b-ride but it's too warm even for that. I hate that. Plus the wind's swirling and that has way of always being in your face and resistant - weird. And what's up with the early slam shut tropics. Not even the peak and there's nothing but Larry ... I guess that counts, but there's nothing coming. It's like hitting a lull during the peak....

Interesting... I mean I don't disagree here in general re the odd directive and the questions it arises. I don't know if these are evidences that they're not taking it seriously ... as much as they are either: A, they simply don't care what that means ( and there are discrete reasons for this plausibility) for the future. B, they have some non-disclosed reclamation technology that they are using (or soon intend to) in concert, that will greatly reduce the CO2 ... CO emissions; maybe they are just not telling the world ( and there are reason(s) to see that as plausible, too ) they are developing(ed). B is a bit of stretch ..but not impossible. It is within technological grasp to scrub exhaust. It's just that we are not used ( lol, perhaps ) to such notions in our western-based economies. It only seems insurmountable. Common narrative has truth, "obsticular" interests with lots of power block both .. usually in insidious indirect influences ... We sort of see it out here ( waving hands..) but is an illusion of infeasibility that is institutionally just accepted. In fact, no fossil combustion is ultimately necessary. 0. But if we must ... we can't be limited in how to do so while minimizing the risks. It's really... you know, morality and innovation did not evolve with the other in mind. Broad brushed statement but it's true. Put another way, our species has mechanized nature using the immense energy stored in fossil fuels, by wit of the most power biological invention this world has ever evolved: the human brain. ... But that's ALL we did - It seems now here at the threshold of hell-to-pay, innovation has to do its bidding or [ enter mushroom cloud ]. They could be ahead of tech curve/that realization and we just don't know it. A is troubling.. .They don't have the best track record in human rights/ interests... They seem to value life in a different way - almost like army ants creating drowning bridges so that the other million solders can cross a flooded stream or obstacle. Not exactly, but metaphors seldom are. They are also more clearly and evidentiary quite insular when it comes to philosophies, and I don't believe they have much compunctions in diplomacy when it comes to feeding foreign legions precisely what those reps need to hear to stave off reproach. Meanwhile, they are building islands in strategic shipping routes of seas and launching projectiles ... high tech style ( 2017 ) at one of their own defunct satellites, successfully obliterating them into orbiting shrapnel plumes for the world to see ... It's not impugning the practice, per se - we do it. We don't ask. But demonstration is always a very affecting means to deliver a message when it comes to international brinkmanship. I just almost think they are preparing sometimes, just in case, for if/when the wave the 'population correction' so to speak comes, whether in a single cataclysm, or a cocktail of events that forces the hand of Humanity. They are the ultimate "Doom's Day Preppers" And when it all shakes out, they will be self contained, militarily saddled with the wherewithal to keep it that way, until the death settles it all.

thanks Don - I'm grateful for it, but honestly? sometimes I wonder. If one can string together lengthier than a "twit's" coherent sentences ... one has a decent shot. "In the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed man is surely king" Add stupefying of society into e-zombies to the example-list of innovation leading inexorably to it's own extinction. Maybe that's more like "irony" than c-22. Convenience addled nimrods masquerading as real intelligence, gray matter isn't myelinating new neuro pathways like it once needed to, when people had to use their brains and language to survive. 'Course, ...I'm being a little hyperbolic at the moment - haha

Yeah.... sorry - it's probably no revelation that I like to write. Lol.. didn't mean to sermon. It may seem bunnish but I do think a population correction is coming. You know, if it's not one way ...it'll be the other. I like the Gaia-Gozer thing.. cool But, for one obvious trite reason, 'nothing last forever in a universe that is ultimately bounded by finality' ...Obviously, it's a matter of 'when' and for what reason - to aspects that are entirely subjective in relationship. Heh. I actually am a published Sci Fi author as of 1 year ago. So glazing eyes over and giving people headaches is something I have a keen skill - haha. Anyway, that right up started a simple reply to someone else over the state of the Arctic - as it pertains to the sea ice and so forth. 90% of it, and this exchange since, probably should be in that "Thoughts on ..." thread instead.