Typhoon Tip

WORD! It may not be getting the attention it needs? Perhaps owing to the heat business in the foreground, but that looks impressive to me as the Euro descends height falls at the same time it accelerates/ ..or defaults ( actually) the entire NY and 6-state region inside a right/side exit/entrance jet field. With all this f'n SB CAPE, the Mlv lapse rates and the MU CAPE ending up in situ in growth. I wanna say, tornado 'tomography' or cross-sectioning in our neck of the woods has climate precedence for when troughs dive S ...not necessarily arrive from the W like in the Plains. That means the W boundary layer flow is actually in a positive (favorable) directional shear. And favorably also the marine component is pushed over toward France lol. Tomorrow and actually Thursday too, as the Euro and membership keep the trough axis W until late that day.

Heh, 92 at BOS at 9:55 ... Any takers on "10 after 10" LOL

We've hammered this facet enough so keeping brief. This really is an ideal heating scenario through a column that lacks the critical upper tier thermally charged air-layers/initial conditions to have brought this to a real dangerous scope. That's the shortest way to say it. The longer version ..ad nauseam at this point, is that we did not have that +22.5 or > C 850 and over hanging EML ejected from the SW/W U.S., in a critical timing prior to the onset ( synoptically ) of this anomaly. If we had, we would have parked that air mass inside this ridge and we wouldn't be struggling to get 90 b 9; it is possible would be talking 100 by noon! The irony here is that there is air out west available to this competition between real potential, and getting lucky that we are missing this - altho "luck" in the relative sense; it may be that it is rare to get that nexus of events. Unknown. But I think we are "playing with fire" frankly. You know, I remember back in late November through early January of 2014-2015, posting that we are doing that same playing with matches wrt to winter, because we kept getting side-swiped by bricking cold, but then it was timing roll-outs, en masse, just in time for synoptic rainers. It just seemed the south and N were just enough out of sync to keep them from bed- partnering ... That all changed on January 15 in the guidance that fateful year I wonder as we venture into the antithesis of July, what we can do with some of that W air if it should get booted E en masse inside of one of these topless ridges

Why is it that people "bun" emoji people for telling truth's they happen to hate -- Boy, that shows an intellect capable of real growth when you do that.

...in the interest of diplomacy - but yup In fact more likely began when "Ugh" picked up the first lightning strike burning stick in the early Hominid African savanna and got to thinking. That's when it started, if we really wanna asymptotic the mo' f*er You didn't ask, but the Anthropocene Epoch ? doesn't end well -

Caboose'ing this .. ..not sure what it means for your 'elephant in the room commentary,' but at least for this summer - I suspect we are in an above normal to normal departure regime. At times, this could be vastly warmer than normal. I suspect the basal temperature pattern seldom gets below normal - unless it is happenstance with a heavy rain or more local to our unique geography and a Labradorian NE jet for time spans that don't last as long as those spent in the base state.

…this is just some unusual/interesting environment shit going on – Boston’s low was 79 F, which took place between 4:25 and 4:50 am, before the temperature bounced back to 81 and sat there in torrid stasis through dawn. I've seen this in the past, and wonder if there's any truth to what it looks like is happening: as the corpuscular rays of the sun began tipping over the NE horizon, before the red disk even pokes up, it is as though the atmospheric wick is so primed (thermal momentum in this sense …) the temperature rises. Boston's temp appeared to rise before the dawn, perhaps responsive to just the diffused day-lights energy input. It is presently 90-ish by 9 am – and the index finger rule in weather prediction, “9 by 9 if you wanna make a hundo” is in full watch – we’ll see. But agree with Scottness that 97 to 99 seems a slam dunk. All happening with DPs in the 70s ! That’s the coup de gras. We may have Heat Index values of 105 to a surreal 107 F at some point between 3 and 6 pm - unknown mix result? OH, and one other aspect: the seasonal climatological hottest week of the calendar year is July 20th through the 28th

06z NAM put up a 33 C at T1 for Logan across two consecutive intervals - ...about as close to a hundred as can be possibly missed - probably 99.4 F in the 2 meter ... ha 12000435424 -0798 182610 78332415 18000466319 -1496 172711 78332414

BOS nicks a 'rounding' 90 at MesoWest's site by 8:50 am, fwiw -

This year may get it done in July

Yeah, subtle but there ... a trend to just be weaker overall with that weekend trough scenario. Truth be told, the whole plunking in aspect seems 'forced' ? almost corrective - like a whiplash maybe. Heights were so high then there's an abrupt collapse, and typically these models see any change at all beyond D5 through a magnifying glass ( metaphor for larger than they are, both in amplitude and area). We saw this all cold season long, Euro and GFS, where most notable distant storms ended up predictably ( due to persistent correction behavior ) pedestrian. Anyway, this trough looks like it defaults the area more toward seasonal humidity and thundery rains for 18 hours sometimes late Thurs onward, but then our dailies Sat/Sun may just end up more partly cloudy and just not as overall bad. We'll see how it evolves but this week's end smacks as a similar over advertisement.

yup , 88/73 BOS 8:05 ... narily missing 90 by 8

83/77 at 8AM .. warmest I've seen it, at this hr, at this address - 10 years. Other notable, BOS fell to a min of 79, and stayed there for just 1/2 hour before they bounced back to 81 and stayed there through dawn. They are 86/73 at 8AM. Not sure I've seen much warmer than that, at this hr, at that location either - 30 years

I hope we're keeping in my it is at the receiving end of an urban heat island spanning some 30 deg of wind direction dial ? maybe when the wind is right - may be worth it to expand that study to remove other factors, perhaps then isolate the instrumentation as a cause -

BOX was amusing in AFD with " ..absolute soup bowl " in SNE tonight. I think an upgrade to Exc Warning tomorrow imho based up trends today. 95 to 98 tomorrow favors the high end of that range, and would be 2 ticks higher than sites today as a reasonable outlook due to higher launch pad and thermal momentum off today. The torridity may have greater theta-e density ..i.e, insultingly 73 where was 71 today. Not sure I see how the sounding is drier - 20C at 850 is typical 36 C at T1 sigmas, which does not include the slope temperature at the bottom of the sounding - why is everyone f'ing fighting this thing.. Suit ur selves - anyway, Advisories cover it too so yeah, it's splitting hairs. I noticed Jersey office bumped ... Looked at the Euro... Sunday may be decent in the afternoon given a trend to bump that trough axis east of the region. Sometimes the models can be too pessimistic in NW backsides... Also, the front of that fiasco ( thur afternoon) looks interesting for convection to me.

Refrigerator is dying - apparently the heated passion of these Amazonian times is more than it could bear - that and the fact that it is 20+ years old. It's been on my mind to replace it but it's like minimum of 800 $ to find a decent one, which is exactly the same cost for procrastination - lol... The damn thing is always on. I think in 24 hours it is off for maybe 4 hours of that time. I swear, coming and going,..this thing is always running. So, just bought an Energy Start pro rated blah blah and hope the rattling of this one lasts until this next Tuesday. I think streets and thoroughfares and parking lots are hotter than these temp house ... duh. But it was 97 pegged on the dash therm, until the center of town in Ayer, where astride main street on one side is a multi-rail train yard, servicing commuter and freight, and on the other brick and mortar 2 .. 3 story bread boxes. 99 there - Meanwhile, the only 97's I can find upon return is BAF and BOS... Everywhere else seems to have maxed at 95 ( so far )

Central New England at least has thunderstorms bubbling - lucky towns

HO man ... disk golf today ? Deer flies and dangerous heat indices. sign me up

Just did a gape jawed awe stroll - holy lava bath. Seems to be two kinds of heat detection out there: one is the ambient homogeneous atmosphere, the other is waves of heat cast off ( presumably ) by the earth and so forth. These are hot puffs of air in brief. interesting... Not so interesting if you don't have AC'ed environment to escape to -

Yeah, was just gonna add - that BOS reading is overwhelmingly legit comparing - BAF, ASH, ...BED ...all 95. Probably 98 is doable

Boston and Newark NJ are in a "dead heat" for max regional T

I dunno..93 at FIT and ASH, and they are not ass end of a giant city fartin' right at them.

Here in Ayer we have a micro urban setting with main street, lined with brick and mortar buildings and most obs/home stations are popping 95s presently. But are you more wooded over there ? I'm wondering if urban centers are doing this elsewhere, too -

Awt -

95/76 average home stations in pig bum butt cheek Ayer... Not sure if the DP is legit but Boston bein' 73 - heh By the way, ...lol, I just took the front grate off my AC units and oops! Both the radiator coils and the exterior filters were completely clogged with scunge. Gee, wonder why the air flow hasn't felt altogether very cool lately. Folks may want to check their maintenance