Typhoon Tip

Lol, true but...there are other reasons humanity can and do stupidly place official thermometer houses/ob sites where they do - it doesn't have to be airports per se. Frankly, I'm not sure why - anywhere for that matter - these temperatures have to be out around those civility escapes. Obviously more usefulness in climate science.

Yeah to each his/her own... Bottom line is, I have a lot of patience for 40 to 50 drab weather in Autumn than I do not for that kind of weather in April. And in a way ...although I start getting excited for snow as Octobers move on, I also have patience for warmth/Indian summery fare as well, just because we have winter still coming, either way. That's basically it. If we wanna break it down further, ...obviously it's situation-relative. Like, if its 44, gloomy cloudy slate skies on Sunday at 2:14 pm on Nov 13, and the models have an interesting scenario with hints of cold profiles waiting for Half Time scrolling, that 44 almost seems charming - lol... But if it's May 3rd, and green up is clearly 2 weeks late and we're on the verge of chopping down solar max days with it, that may as well be rectal plaque.

That Worcester one there ..that must have been before the 1K move up the ladder. I don't see that altitude doing those dates when we cannot hardly ever get July to do that there. Just guessin'

Curiously ... where did you find these ? heh...

I dunno - I like those nostalgia afternoons though, from Oct 20 to Nov 15 or so... You know, where it's 44 F with sloped tepid sun in between virga blobbed CUs passing near-by, that send spritzers of cold rain drops along with those teeny packing pellets. Not enough to wet the air or Earth, but in the air. And it's accompanying the deodorizing polar air aroma that we come to recognize as that 'smell of snow.' Completing the picture, while doing the particularly loathsome chore called raking, the wood smoke curls around the stacks to add some cinnamon to the air. Baked chicken and mashed taters with gravy .... Or, en route to crew with dudes for b-wings and Patriots games ... In either one of these two settings, knowing you have 3 or 4 months of winter weather phenomenon to switch gears finding inspiration. I don't like that packing pellet days in early May, no LOL. Maybe those autumns are gone forever. After that shit show yesterday, the Pats part of it may not contribute again - haha. But also, I think we are in trouble for those 'transition weeks' anyway. It is hard to steady state the seasonal migration when we have this CC stuff more and more so proving to be a disruption on circulation structures and pattern this and that, when trying to move the hemisphere colder. It seems it's like 70 F or ...advisory snow.

Yup, that NE Mass action came over/down Rt 2 straight down the Mohawk Trail just prior to dawn, and we got popped with I'm guessin' .5" in 15 seconds. LOL, but though rain seldom wakes me up the roar of it this time, did, and sounded disturbingly rumbly heh. Really fast, but drowning rates. Only two flashes. One was typical crawler, but one must have been a positive stroke judging by the acoustics of the report along with it's ability to resonate the structure of the home.

No shit, man - I just saw that 192 hour look. this, is anchored so deeply in every statistical inference method there is it'd need a planetary root canal not to succeed. But it's not just the y-coordinate of the non-hydrostatic height field, as it's rollin' through the OV/ southern Ontario. I mean that's probably only 1 or maybe 2 SD in actual vertical anomaly. It's the 'longitude' of that wave structure/ x-coordinate. It's very massive in that west-east aspect. That thing is like a tsunamis wave out at sea, where the energy is all in the lateral, such that when it hits land it piles up ... and become vertical? Sort of a metaphor for the real surface temperature potential. A more "intangible" aspect: with so much ballast in the 'length' aspect of the larger synoptic wave, that means it is got too much momentum and will likely need to degenerate over longer time. In other words, that's not looking like just a 2 day misty warm sector there. I mean sometimes these dramatic warm signals ... particularly post August 15's, will tend to over balloon ...and then the westerlies come along and dictate them as short duration warm sector intrusions ... etc. But that really looks it has a pretty solid and confident chance to be more than that.

Maybe I'm not searching right but this is actually not so easy to find. Trying to find the 'latest in a calendar year a heat wave took place' ... etc, but it's not apparently a very popular observation -

Except you'll be in the 80s ... but sure. Well okay .. .if your hangin' out with Red Tail hawk aeries up there above 2K elevations ... sure. But this is everyone S-E of the ST L. Seaway bathing in a deep, homogeneously (through the vertical integral) warm anomaly. I bet its positive anomaly from 200 mb all the way down lol.. I also think DPs will be too high to shed temperature that much at night - even this late. Might be interesting to test the seasonal dew ringing, vs the (CC + pattern anomaly)/2. I almost visualize morning's so dew that the soil beneath the feet get real watering and small puddles form in the gutters.

Right now ... Nicholas looks like a classic Category 5 "mimic" on IR. The radar out of CRP ...that's you know, NHC has their methods and agenda and it is what it is, but frankly ... the scary specter of insidious black and pink vomit on IR looks more so like a convective artifact. Only weak indication of real organization on objective radar scans as it seems. I remember back year ago, there was one of those insane -100C top canopies sustaining itself over the Caribbean, and NHC had it all way to to 65 mph TS ... the works. RECON finally gets in there ... TD with a weakly closed/vaguely discerned west wind where the southern aspect of the cyclone should be at best. I think they kept the TS status but reduced it to 45 mph based on RECON ... something like all of 2 uncontaminated pixels to on the NE side trying to be that much... Meanwhile the sat IR kept blazin' away like we were witnessing a Chicxulub impact. I remember the next day, that menacing look faded and sure enough, a weak lvl curl popped out and I don't think that thing ever went onto anything really. That's all something else though. TX may be in for a really bad flood ordeal, either way.

I noticed as we got closer to today thru tomorrow, the models had to back off on the mean frontal position through our region. In fact, synoptically .. the high pressure through eastern Ontario evolved less massive, while 850mb has arrived less depressed S. Was +9, three days ago... with attending total air mass quality looking more 'across the bow' back whence. Now we set at +15 to +12, looking SW to NE thru the area, the air is tinted in DP...the wind is too light to signal much advection, and the clamor of summer insects are still sawin' away at it out there. Ha ha. Nothing Earth shattering in noting that tedium but ... it's 'correction vectoring' ftw. Recognizing the 'synoptic footprint' as still unchanged during any transient events that are nested within some larger framework, is useful. Models, particularly beyond short ranges, will often if not typically attempt to sell scenarios that over-compensate. Then, the preexisting 'tendencies' manifest and correct x-y-z modeled phenomenon back toward the predominating mean. This is a warm pattern... one that is before the warm one folks are even talking about toward the week's end. It's hard to know/boundary that, versus today at this point. Maybe it's a warm pattern that 'gets even warmer', but the synoptic correction we just saw leading today in the Euro spanning the last week is pretty classic footprint correcting behavior. The sun is weaker and weakening... but we are still on the warm side of the Equinox by a pube. Here's the thing, a month ago that would be a slam dunk heat wave out there D6 to 9. At knee jerk take, I don't know if we can do more than the mid 80s right now. However, ..thinking back, we did an 84 F afternoon in mid February (2016 I think it was...) ... actually I think several Febs have had some eerie warmth. But, that happened some 5 weeks prior to the Equinox, or on the 'cold' side. So, the dimming sun-angle can be overplayed too. I think if we get a bona fide dose of 18.5C at 850 with 'thermal momentum' (leading warm pattern of sufficient density/time), ... What is the latest heat wave on record for N of say NYC ? I'm sure it cheated to so with three day 89.45 at some stretch or the other in the last 250 years ... but either way the return rate's gotta be pretty low on that. Subjective ( imho ...) the back of summer is broken, but this is a CC September incarnate and that larger guiding factor is skewing/smearing the effect toward less distinction.

... The Harpseals are a furiously flippering their smart phones for the latest model guidance... haha

The GEF-based PNA is in free-fall, while the NAO climbs and holds static in a positive .25 to 1 SD mode ... essentially for the next 2 straight weeks. The convergence of those and doing so at length, are not exactly constructing 'chilly' thoughts. Then, the operational guidance, et al, over night look historic now with heights everywhere, south of 50. Some distant whispers of seasonal change might be more evidenced in the EPS mean. Persistently wants a strengthening polar branch ... mushing it snuggily over top said heights running along southern Canada in the ext..

Nick is born ... seemed to go directly to TS status...

It's funny ... we spend decades of man-brain power, and probably billions in tech evolution, in order to sample and eventually predict the environment. Spend 10 minutes over a cup of coffee doubting what it tells us as over-cooked conceited hams - lol. I've done it too... Sometimes I admit that I just don't like the look of x-y-z handling in a-b-c model run. 'That's not gonna do that.' 'What's this f'n model doing out of nowhere with this' Pick the tossing internal monologue... Thing is, sometimes .. yeah, we are right to doubt. Certainly, pushing standard deviations should strain believability and force some thought. Heh. But I have noticed just like 2007, .. "Ida" ... just because the specter of model cinema can't be so, is no M.O.

This very similar repulse and response mode seemed to take place prior to the Dec 2008 event. Off-topic ... but the NAM began flagging -2.5 C at the 950 mb ( like right over tree top level) along the spine of the lower Monads ( which by geographic extension includes the Worcester Hills, btw ), WHILE the grid was also QPF'ing 3.5" of rain. It seemed that devastating ice storm was outright f'ing there all along. I'm not saying no one took it seriously - the general threat for aspect. No. There were warnings ... But I'm pretty sure the accretion/warning was .5 to .75" of ice rhyming, basically low-balling the shit glue out of what took place. And it was jaw dropping ... pretty much exactly what the NAM said: less than freezing + heavy rain.

I really wish it were not just fantasy that there were an econ incentive that argues never allowing Tweets be allowed/posted. But, unfortunately... that opposite must be the reality. Can't these narcissists and their followers PLEASE keep their morning shit thoughts to themselves -

It’s interesting this thing I’ve noticed about the 18z cycles (haven’t checked the 06z) of that model. it’s like it goes out if it’s way to shave standard deviations off everything … everywhere. And very consistent behavior. It strikes me as a systemic error when it’s that dependable, but also then washing the whole-scale handling weaker is less than entirely believable … maybe assimilation

You eat more water and like it.

Climate Change ... seriously, 'magine if that happened now, in this powder keg of blaming stub toes and lost car keys ... man, what a hysteria bag that would be.

Meh.. I get the commiseration but expectations being realistic - not a surprise. Couple basic concepts suffice lowering anticipation for us, vs elsewhere... one ...we are small in geographic area compared to the vastness of "Maritime SE-E Canada. Obviously ...that ups the odds in their favor surrounding size of target... blah blah. two ... we are farther W then they are, such that in a real world setting ...where probability is that MDR originating systems simply falter the total distance before succeeded as far W as we are, means they get the earlier recurve frequency more apt to threaten. "Home grown" Gulf and western Caribbean systems are not likely to affect those areas up there, because there's too much U.S. coastal intervening interaction first. Most TC's making an impact to those Maritime regions must therefore come from an MDR that peels TCs out before ever getting - Simply put, the static factors make it more likely they will than here. The rub is ... the odds increase farther down the coast because of said home grown events... because not only do they get those, but, they get a sizeable percentage of those MDR systems that do in fact make it all the way across. That leaves us with a tiny dole out of what is delivered, all sources combined.

Well... for however little it is worth - This/these type(s) of depictions coming outta the Euro and GGEM clusters ( even the 06z operation GFS took a stab...), are far in a way more ominously situating major/traditional aspects out along and above the Basin MDR comparing to what Larry ever did when that cyclone was in its early stages. Thing is...we're getting serviced buckshot when considering all the various modeling sources as a ( sort of ) single entity technology. They are on while spraying TC everywhere...and the timings therein are also offset. It makes it difficult to know what region... We may in fact have a 'Nick', 'Odette' and 'Peter' concurrently. That region over the western Gulf is a petri dish this week as the western arc of the WAR softens the mid and upper tropospheric flow into a gentle east caress over that region, which is underpinned by 90 F water or whatever in the boiling Hades it is there... The surrounding atmosphere is moist and there's really frankly nothing to stop that [already notable ] circulation tendency that is near the coast of the Bay from going nuts once that moves out... NAVGEM is the only model that seems aware of this - weird.. In similar parametric scope the region astride the Ga coast/adjacent is also entering a very favorable deep layer for TC genesis. There isn't much in that vicinity now - mind you...we're talking 'modeled to emerge,' in particular the GFS is pitching the development with the most panache. But now even the oft' retarded TC genesis Euro ( meaning it's overcoming its blinders..) is now denting the pressure pattern in that region... Whether a TC does take form in that area, the over-arcing theme is also very favorable, and these guidance' may simply be responding to that numerical instability at regional scales and imploding the pressure pattern. It's very hard to establish a deep layer eastern anomaly in the mid troposphere without cyclonic implications underneath in latitude, regardless of season... We don't ( or do, depending on one's more responsibility - haha) want that happening over 80 to 90 F Gulf Stream thermal energy within reach.. no - But, until some random thunderstorm out there serves as trigger to coalesce a circulation out of the ether ... we bide time on that. Meanwhile, the current rather highly ranked Invest over the far East Atlantic by NHC. That's not even the TC zygote that we see in recent Euro/GGEM runs out there... It appears a separate TW ejects farther S near S. Leone ... one of those one's that's pretty much TD designated leaving the beach type deals. That one comes off deep in latitude. Man, like 9N ... And with the general +NAO and -PNA extension and +AAM look to the total everywhere of the hemispheric canvas, that southern track seems pretty tamely safe to make the long haul - should have better probability to do so.

You know what's interesting about that Greenland/'Larry' ordeal, with that flash cyclone transition into a white-hurricane affect - That's actually happened more or less down here, if more so in a 'relatable' fashion in the annuls dating back centuries. Sandy was sort of a distant cousin, by getting swallowed up in that trough... WV did in fact get a bad early snow storm from that while NJ was getting fisted by a conveyor squeeze between -NAO blacking high and the left-hooking beast. Point is, the that's a unique and interesting sort of phenomenon that is, albeit rare, something that can produce well above the standard deviation storm anomaly distribution in snow fall, if things are timed and physically interacting just right. We've spoke and presented in post example ... I think the 1700's were big on doing this... where some early season cold was situated Ontario just biding time, and the cane slammed into the NY Bite ... But the Greenland present example helps elucidate that phenomenon.

Mm... actually, counter-intuitive perhaps but the opposite is true. The short version: ...the earlier than normal activation of the seasonal polar jet is causing earlier than normal pattern coherency - lending to CAA. Longer version: This is likely due to compression against the HC when normal seasonal gestation of cooling at higher latitudes defaults the ambient gradient. That gradation speeds up of the westerlies, earlier than normal ... Physical forcing requires the wave mechanics will organize super structures ...earlier than normal; R-wave organization --> pattern coherence and summer entropy is replaced by more order. This triggers patterns that typically are more identifiable as we head toward Dec... to occur by mid Oct's... etc. This does not mean "snow" per se. What it does mean, cold delivery ... setting the stage for snow chances from around those ~ times through Thanks Giving ..etc... Yes, while vast majority of the surrounding world's stasis happens to be on the crimson sides of the color coded graphics put out by the NASA state of the climate publications, we get the unique ability of hiding from GW because we're getting snow can cold...obfuscating the truth - ...taking some personal attack space saying that.. . What's funny about this ... we could still be pulling off these snow chances in above normal October and Novembers. They are happening is short duration bursts. Interceded by startling offset returns to warmth. In other words, the increased variability is probably the distinguishing science in the matter, but ... people will remember the snow on or by Halloween's or soon thereafter. I actually put some of these white thanks givings recently as part of the same phenomenon.

Oh it was, too. I also had accompanying sensations of nostalgia for it. You know? - how seasons all have a distinctive smell? I can smell dew-rich air .. heh, it's like the 'body odor' down wind of a summer thunderstorm. I can smell dew-starved air, as it mixes with browned leafs, both Indian summer or early cold snap. I can smell snow, just before a nor'easter, when the barren black tree limbs wobble beneath a sky that looks like busted mammata ..virga tendrils dangling. I can smell the mud of the recently thawed earth in late March. Sometimes, just then...you sense both snow in late 'farmer's gold' while falls and melts upon softened soil. It's interesting how these have very distinctive identities. It's true. This morning you could see the affect of autumn ...but the air didn't smell of autumn -not just yet. Still the visual cues were enough and I was imaging to times. Like up at my brother-in-law's in early Novembers. We set to felling a tree in those years; they were to prep for the next years fire wood... That 40 F air, and the smell of crunching leafs below foot with occasional wood smoke. Then the game was on, Patriots... and if lucky, ...some packing pellet snow grits ...but those games were more December. Some of those 2003 - 2009 years were good for that experience.