Typhoon Tip

Not seeing it ... (sev convection) Could be wrong, sure - ...but I don't believe this synoptic mechanical layout is moving the front "back" N and it's already succeeded the S.C.

Like was said this morning ...these next 6 hours might be telling as to the behavior of this. Some may get NARCAN'ed

Larry either has an eye, or archetype of one ...

It's like folks are throwing reasons out to up this to even more terrifying dystopian lust realization ... but no - this is a rain anomaly. Enjoy it for what it is. For some ... they'll flood. For others, they'll tsunamis us with reasons in posts why it wasn't as big as advertised. Lol... ( snark )

This isn't a tropical storm ... you wouldn't issue a TSW for an event that isn't a TS - If one wants to consider a high wind watch/warning... by all means. But, I agree with Ryan all the way on that guys. We have a shockingly bad realization at the surface, N-W of all coastal zones, when it comes to wind events - they are over forecast some 90% of the times. ...not sure who said what and for where...just sayn' It's really as though these wind products - in process - overturn the fluid viscosity of the static negative buoyancy factor of inversion - i.e., that can't really physically happen. All guidance clearly indicates a stable layer that only deepens when hygroscopically cooled, and the ballast wind momentum is simply not going to mix down given that synoptic awareness.

It seems like two aspects are subtly happening as we are in very short range: one, ...the axis of heaviest is trying to shift south in these higher res experimental model types; two, ... it seems while still as anomalously large in the y amt axis, the x- axis ...or areal coverage appears to be honing along a narrowing field. These may just be artifacts of model noise...I dunno. Not here to ruin anyone's dopamine delivery or nothin' ...just seems so

that's an interesting point ... lacking the encyclopedia of canned/stock shock phrases - might have to actually 'write' for a change, huh. heh, I actually wonder if an episode of "How It's Made" on The Science Channel might be an interesting/tongue-in-cheek watch ...as they go into the software and editorial tech machine of big media.

it's important to always put "as modeled" on the end of those turn of phrases and sentences. It's easy to say, ...that is assumed; we all know that. But people then don't act like they did when the rareness proves why it is rare. That is where the gap starts to widen. When ever predicting something that rare, that inherently means we are considering something that takes very fine/precarious interaction of physical components, not perturbing the delicate machinery. Simply put, it is hard to get water that big. That's why these things are so rare; they usually fail. Just for muse: Sometimes ( even ) the advancing model tech gets into a kind of parity/or uncertain principle it even sometimes seems. Where the more accurate they get, they start to permutate weird solutions. Like the ECM blown blizzard into NYC back in ... 2016? There was really no way in reality to find the reason why the virtual realm of the model's vision ended up with such a crisis in error. That one had NWS with strongly worded Blizzard Warnings clear to Newark, and I think they may have gotten 2-4" of snow fins around parked car tires and tree trunks in a breath-arresting frigid wind toting cryo miasma instead. That's my wordy memory of it anyway LOL Bottom line, bust -

Mm hm... 'as modeled,' ... but a apparently a Millennial event in the imagination of the zeitgeist doom addiction -

Media scrambling to find competing headlines that matches these gov agencies' hyperbole ... Now that's an interesting scenario, considering 2021's standardization of media ethics <-- lack thereof. Yet, they must be at a loss to compete with the likes of this, "Widespread, highly unusual, highly confident deadly and life threatening flood risk..." I'm not impugning WPC/NOAA .... NASA or SETI signals telling them for driving that risk along ... It is what it is. But, what can the headlines of CNN do to out-knee jerk their constituency that is more than a statement like that. It's an event to be at that cross roads in itself. LOL

Some more than others ... but that was a pretty significant shift left among all guidance wrt to Lar' dawg out there late mid range/extended. Another shift like that, considering also the circulation mode of the hemisphere, may result in la-la range threat for Atlantic Canada. My personal index finger rule is that a TC needs to get ~ to the 60 W longitude marker ... along or S of 20 N to have a shot much west of there, and even then, Bermuda seems to steal most. But that seems to be a 'probability ramp up' requirement to even begin considering EC shenanigans on this side of the imagination. Right now, Larry is progged by Euro GFS ....GGEM NOGEM ... to flop on the polar side of said latitude still some 500 naut miles or more E of 60 W ...but, the trend to move to this 00z mean position by some 800 of that distance is probably plenty of tell that this thing is correcting west in time. The next aspect is that the mean position needs to get to that benchmark by 96 to 120 hours. If it has not yet done so by that lead model time ...it's likely buh-bye. So, we'll see if this thing can even get to stage 1 Bun

Take the smeared guts of a TC and flop it over the top of a baroclinic axis that has modest synoptic lift support by weak 500mb jet running by enhancing lift, and you get deposition results that end up much, much larger than the sum of the individual parts going into the ordeal. Synergistic flood. The PWAT alone is hefty but not enough - or is it? The jets of the synoptic field are weak and wouldn't do it. The boundary isn't impressively defined, but is enough there to define an elevated frontal slope, nonetheless... I think it is interesting that model physics 'see' that synergy. The next 6 hours of now-cast and observations may also be useful in this, up stream ... See how the hourly bucket rates are comparing to model omens there over NE PA and so forth.

I'm shocked lol

Definitely can see it's elevation dependent for heaviest snowfall in this ...

You guys have just ratcheted this up to such a euphoric expectation it can only fail

It seems like everyone has a different high with that CBD drug.

In 1978 the Yankees closed a 10 game gap in Sep.

Ekersley just lost it. “…This seasons over; you can’t be 10 games out on Sept 1!” tone to match disgust What a shame Red Sox were numero uno a month or whatever ago and now they’re fighting to hold onto a wild card spot and slipping … They got a bunch out on COVID. But also their pitching shit it’s self. They could just end up in a hole too deep to even recover from even if they get hot

Actually I like the title this thread lol

Agree with BOX .. this is exactly what I said earlier ... "Wednesday will be all about the remnants of Ida. Just about all of the 12Z guidance has not only sped up the eastward progression of Ida, but also shifted the track farther north as well. As such, it is more likely that the center of what was Ida should be approaching or region late in the day. More interaction with a mid level trough and shortwave will make this system more like a typical Nor`easter than."

Mm, why not. Only I'd do it under the auspices of just being a robust anomaly rain event, only - Ida's history. Or maybe wait and have an obs thread ?

The proficiency of the phasing in the Euro is astounding ... That's one helluva synergistic wave amplitude/trough closed result there. Someone up there in eastern Ontario is getting wind warning easterly jet over the top of that.

Not to inflate those odds or nothin' ... .don't need to do that around here lol but, the idea of the early recurve is/was more baseline topography of statistics given to the expanse of the basin and time, combined. These CV systems are always favored to turn early by virtue of that. It seems as tho the models shed steering out in time, and then the beta-drift takes over which biases the track right - once there it get hooked up with the westerlies... completing the turn on the D 7-9 Once in a blue moon, a CV cyclone evolves and the models keep it south on a west motif ...But, I think if we looked at all historic modeling for systems that affected the Americas, that were of CV origin ... it wouldn't shock me if more than half were modeled to either turn early, or had the duck tail toward the right motion in the extended, but corrected left along their way. Of course and obviously, some also do turn early.

yup... weak nor'easter with an unusual package of PWAT to dispose of ...

Bill gave the frolicked locker-room jocularity bid it's go in 2020 ... It's not a tact he likes or probably more like 'respects' very much, being apropos. Then COVID and other BS interceded and though he's a well education very rational guy, he is human ... ( not the emperor in 'Jedi), and his bias against the former ways and means of team management, having a short rope, my hunch he was itching for it anyway. So, he wants to get back to the model that he's use to winning with - a Gestapo camp, where the personnel on the field are too terrified of stepping out side the machinery of the system. What better way to do that than to can the 'cool guy.' The specter of the most popular guy in the locker-room, walking for the exit, chin down. It's got an upside in his mind - he gets to play the shrewd inside mogul, while in reality he's done with the shenanigans. Win win, as he feels the tangible AND intangible favors winning. Hey, it worked before - right ? Sorta - I mean, TB leaving, and then summarily, the organization puts up a barely audible above 500 year and fails the playoff cut isn't a great look. Meanwhile said QB saunters on down to TB ( no pun intended ...) and oh by the way, throws another trophy up on his legacy and brings TB back to discussion for a few years. But hey, COVID got in the way ... maybe. And once is not a valid sample set ...Bill gets to "hide" behind that by accident or design. In the meantime, Jones scored on every single drive he Quarterbacked during the preseason. Every one. Be it a TD or FG, he scored. Cam did not do this. What he did do, is jeopardize the organization with a COVID scare, after he already jeopardized the organization last year, ...with a COVID scare. That too, is/was not a good look. And the human side of the espouse master strategist maaaybe just sort of go pissed off at the guy, too.