Typhoon Tip

Yeah... maybe next April 1

We also are a dysfunctional culture of raging litigates now doing möbius loops over outcomes like buzzards. Agencies charged with notification feel like in order to idiot proof their org from the siege of assholes looking to recoup money for their own lack of responsibility in matters like tors and canes and snowstorms, maybe offices are throwin hands and over calling everything. No one can sue for being less injured then warned …

NWS real-estates blizzard warnings far in a way more frequently then when we were kids - to go with that recency angle … est that newer practice began maybe ten years back I wanna say. Probably coinciding with the criteria changes most likely. Not saying that’s wrong - it’s its own discussion. But I wonder if part of poster’s liberal usage in here stems from these more recent 10 years of nearly all mere mid grade cyclones or > seem to be earning the dramatic hunters orange merit badges pinned on the weather maps. Over usage tends to depreciates to pedestrian use, in that sense … —> posters having lesser abashed filters. Anecdotally … we’ve been under a handful of blizzard warnings locally/IMBY/surrounding towns in the last 10 years that I recall where we didn’t really verify, either - lends to wondering if some of that increased NWS use/headlining is also ‘over’ use, too Anyway with the frequency I’m seeing blizzard headlines applied, regardless of their validity or reasons …, it seems if 5 cold nor’easters struck this year, raw dumb %ages based on NWS alone might mean 2 of those are apt to be “warning” events.

I have a personal perspective on how climate change seems to be manifesting amid just our little nook of the world, that I suspect may rub some the wrong way - ..well, maybe GL/SE Canada and upper MA can be thrown into to the pot. It's more to do with p-type tendencies. It's a sentiment I recall writing about a few short years ago in a post event that featured extraordinary too-long-to-read rates ... (like 7" per hour!) lol We seem to "fail winter," more prodigiously on the under performance side of a curve IF/when we don't have antecedent EPO loading patterns REALLY enabling. ...this matters. It is more than symbolically as though we need the direct input of cold supply from deeper richer sourcing, because the home grown cold is tending to not be enought as much as previous climate generations. I have at times referred to the, "flop direction" being liquid now, where marginal scenarios modeled verify decimals too warm more frequently, and/or ..they just don't have enough BL resistance typology leading our storm tracks to 'hold it in' as impenetrable as say ...1950 - 1998 ... (but the this end date is just slide-able by 10 years later... ) I almost see what is happening now/over the last 2 or so weeks, as a crude early sort of example how we need cold direct loading - just to verify cool incursions. We've bounced the PNA positive to negative, now climbing positive, while sustaining primarily -NAO phase states since late September, and just anecdotally .. I don't recall ever observing this many above normal diurnals within a realm governed by that kind of mass-field indication/telecon character... Oh I'm sure it has happened while you someone has now gon' fastidiously trying to say this happens all the time to bargain not having to face the implications of it ... lol. Just kidding, but seriously ... 2015 was direct cold loading from Kamchatka over the Alaskan arc down to Lake Erie... and all storms were talcum powder cobwebs. It seems the gap is widening, where the mid ranged ratio events are getting fewer, in lieu of either overloaded cold or tending to cold liquid as the the base-line/so to be base-line

Yeah... good insight - I was really thinking 32F but I suppose for posterity ... latest that a car topped glowed but no one or agency really has that ...least I don't think. Lol

Cold isn't the whole story... Plants need cyclic gestation, and can't do it in perpetuity like that. Even tropical plants have fruiting and dormancy intervals that oscillate. A lot of annuals that people plant for garden hobbies need more sun than tepid slope insolation and will tend to cease growth production. I mean if one wants to define the end of growing season as a hard lined 28 F ice in the bird bath morning than that's fine two.. but by and large, nothing is pragmatically growing anyway. Lawns are green, but the actual growth has slowed down around here anyway - as a direct evidence of this. So while not a hard stopped, ...it's is over for all intents and purposes

Just on an early wiener goof ... what are the latest date of a first frost records for HFD/ORH/PVD/BOS/CON/ ...ETC ?

Gosh ...I admittedly thought this one had more staying power in the model runs, too. This has been going on for years frankly ... I don't know when this started - or if frankly it is somehow CC mucking with the "technology-grid" of modeling operations et al ..etc, but routinely a cold air mass in the extended outlooks... normalizes getting to short term. Durations shrink by delay and earlier back-end roll-outs, and 850 mb scalar values start arriving less cold overall. What I try to do is match the operational "lies" with telecon spreads - but the latter isn't a snap shot application, either. The trends and their own verifications are included in that. This cool down next week had that. Didn't matter this time. Interesting... At this rate of on-going trends, that is no different than the last 2 days, which by and large failed to frost. It's an interesting thing to have a -NAO post October 15 ... challenged to frost in New England. Granted the PNA has been modestly negative but the pattern looks PNA neutral, and the progs are showing it as rising. Not sure that's much/how much of a factor

On a brighter note ... if perhaps a little less dystopian, we extend a pat on the back and positive re-enforcement [karma] https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/20/world/carbon-capture-storage-climate-iceland-intl-cmd/index.html Shockingly, that is CNN sourced. It is nothing shy of remarkable, that particular "information" depot of the greater IMC ("Industrial Media Complex"), has published an article that is not an attempt to zap the reader with fear ( to get them exposed to ad revenue ...) so as to manipulate them into an expose of ads for profit attempt. ( Honestly... the point in time in history the IMC figured out a way to convert television channel pings, mouse clicks, and thumb swipes into actual revenue, we were doomed. ) Obviously, we would need and huge constellation of those reclamation plants situated over the vast expanse of the planet, but it would be interesting if the deeper science in where and how many was determined relative to base-line circulation modes of the atmosphere. Because the complete C02 homogenization into the atmosphere begins there - I am curious how quickly source A becomes non-differentiable between x and y down stream... But also... helping to limit the reclamation of atmospheric carbon at the sources might alleviate the total cost ( "cost" in multiple facets in this context, ranging from resource to economics...etc..) by lending to efficiencies. It seems this Sci-Fi potential solution, "carbon capture facilities" ... It is for one ironic - if not fantastic on a personal note! Jesus, I just wrote an op-ed in here last week that took an imaginative step in this very subject matter. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52434-occasional-thoughts-on-climate-change/?do=findComment&comment=6139011 It's a kind of pitch-synopsis for a Science Fiction vision that among a myriad of loaded implicitly-voiced consequences, there were these so-called "CRIM" facilities cited. Weird... But in that story, 'Carbon Reclamation Impact Matrices' - perhaps kitchy first stab at a catchy acronym.. In that story, CRIM is the layout of facilities that were placed all over the planet during the desperation era of "the big dying" that sets in mid century ... Only, CRIMs employ a more advanced technology than merely re-sequestration. What they do is use the recent research ( albeit hugely more sophisticated by virtue of looking/anticipating forward by decades ..) a recent discovery of using combinations of metals to use actual C02 to create energy - so it is coupled advantage of supplying energy to a glutty species, while simultaneously cleaning the diapers of the same species ... interesting. But it engenders consequence...and the rest of the 'Pendulum Ice Age' follows... etc. The other aspect, how much energy does it take to run the contraptions? It would be a complete gain in the war on anthropomorphic -forced climate change if that energy came from entirely renewable sources - the article above focuses on Iceland's geological advantage of using the Earth's interior ( virtual ...) limitless source - so for that one facility, that is true. But one facility, "... about 10 metric tons of CO2 every day, which is roughly the the same amount of carbon emitted by 800 cars a day in the US. It's also about the same amount of carbon 500 trees could soak up in a year...." would need to be scaled up to service a planet. And, notwithstanding .. the technology itself may have room to advancement/sophistication ...The future could certainly evolve more proficiently - 'costing lest energy in, in order to get the same or better cleaning goal numbers out.' Engineering is never a final result... You know you are onto an interesting Sci-Fi premise, though ... when you advance a synopsis, then reality emerges on the other side of that vision that plays a direct homage to the original idea. Maybe these metal/CO2 processing energy plants could be integrated into the ORCA facilities, and there you go -

You say this on the night before a 3 days stint of 70+ lol... I know what you mean tho. I find it interesting that we have so much pronounced -NAO and it's having so limited impact on the temperature anomalies. -or - it is having a huge impact, ...like, if it wasn't for there influencing, we'd be 80. Not sure which is which... But one thing is for sure, up there over the NE Pac/Alaskan sector ...the + or quasi +EPO is a circulation type that blunts cold loading int the Canadian shield. It may be the difference between this year and last year's latter October. Both feature(will) negative NAOs, but one can and one can't relay any cold south because that key source is cut off this time. Of course last year we rebounded in November pretty wildly with a week of 75+ but that's a different bridge -

god ...how long does one have to lock down there to win approval of a father in law lol... seriously, you're missing an epic baseball novel

Yeah all that ...and there's probably a textured storm of factors. I mean, I keep seeing these articles citing societal -scaled burnout of/for "menial" ( some interpretives there ...) -relate job and acquisition thereof, now that 'employment fear' has begun to subside in the early onset post Pandemia ... blah blah blah .. Somewhere in there, they drop a quick turn of phrase that side-car mentions this is most coherent in retail and health sectors - I'm like, "well duh you turkeys! who the f! wants to work in an environment that is a Petri dish for pan-systemic epidemiology concerns now or ever?!" Seems pretty straight forward. But - I dunno - maybe some of that carries over into the logistics areas, too. I was just reading one of CNN's typical fear-pimped articles this morning about the cargo and freight back logs at shipping ports. It's like a sea of those snap fit ocean-liner to freight train and semi truck containers, stacked over a 1000 acre depot ... apparently full of Christmas shopper visions of sugar plumbs and fairies. In other words, this is probably a problem that is more textured than just retail and health, or trucking and delivery ... I almost think it is partly - and this is admittedly biased in my own cynical take on human beings LOL - caused by erstwhile leading immersion of populous in a provisional/supplementary income state during the Pandemics 12 months of "vacation" - I think there is a bit of elephant sloth in the room here. Not ALL - don't get one's panties in a bunch... but a lot of menial jobs that are not celebratory or celebrity ... ( Dirty Jobs/ c/o Mike Rowe et al), suck ... let's face it. Adding to that, the reasons you state around a younger generations not wanting to assume the roles of entry level. Also part of my cynicism I wonder, is that partly a generation of trophy-intoxicated atta boy and girl participator thing? Now that communities have succeeded socializing them into the "like-ably charming entitled" to mid-salaries, automatically, with less awareness of what the word merit really means as emerging adult responsibilities, gems they are ... Sort of what ur saying there.

maybe a pricey season for home heating dependencies upon oil - which lets face it ...directly or indirectly that's everything. the intricacies of energy-economics will do whatever it can to justify inflating gas and electric pricing to go along with because they wanna get rich off this thing too - lol, but we'll see - not sure if anyone's paying attention but the world's really closer to a brink-economic collapse due to a break-down of supply-demand logistical circuitry, then many may be aware. folks are kinda 'tuning out' on the calamity drama, needing a pandemic time out - but in this window there's bit of unawareness it seems. it's just a little emergent property and consequence of the Pandemic's lagged correlation impacts. but that's an extension of the point. that all means we'd better hope the N-branch of the westerlies yields to a some sort of La Nina southern stream ...which would tend to bend the flow S over the Great Basin and wave spacing then lending to ridging in the east but oh wait! Damn, that means winter may suck. Lol... Nice, the pandemic: gift that keeps on giving. f*ed in either direction.

Red Sox offense off the charts. Scoring TDS!

Perhaps ... but it's a grim prospect. The world is in the early phases of acceptance of this as an actual crisis. It will take too much time to do that ( unfortunately...). At some inevitable point in the [probably ] not too far off future, evidences of CC will have become the louder voice in the chorus of perceived travails ..etc. Expectations are going to be rudely usurped, when the enabling faux safety of the Industrial bubble begins to resonate with real imby-discomforts and (haha) the "inconvenience of truth" - whether it is unilaterally understood/accepted or not. ( probably not ..which is why forced adjustment over the next 100 years will likely lend to scaled warfares ). Reminds me in a lot of ways of the Neil DeGrasse Tyson quote, "The beautiful thing about science is it is true whether you believe it or not" The Industrial bubble, created ultimately by scientific methods, enables denying the conclusions of science - now that's an interesting point-blank implication of the catch-22 and the Fermian explanation. A reality that may one day be exposed when Gary Larson's humor becomes our metaphor. His depiction was of two tattered-clad desert wanderers. They happen upon a last gasp chance of life-giving oasis, and instead of saving themselves ... the one brink-of-death turns his head to the other so to gripe, "What? No cups!" We are egregious as a species while celebrating our conceits ( but I certainly wouldn't want to live my life out as a lab-rat). The options for Humanity are twice: A lot of perceived hardships will permeate the pan-dimensional reality of the Global future. Stress factors will reach criticality, breaching duress thresholds ( list of consequences? pick a dystopian novel; it is probably outlined). Like a slower moving apocalypse, environmental break-downs inopportunely add 'or-else' actionable factors with the remorseless timing of lobbing on-fire tennis balls at a one-armed juggler. Pandemics, to failures of macro-agriculture, to perhaps even f'ing up the oceanic phytoplankton C02- O2 cycle ( that accounts for almost 1/2 the oxygen that aerobic organism need to live) - shit! something like that? It'd really put the coup de grace on the "...We are losing" sentiments of Secretary-General António Guterres. This stuff will all have to be compensated before the words "... We can win" can be objectively determined as actually taking place. Yeah, the apocalypse is slow moving, but moving still too fast for our state of planetary controls to adapt in any kind of inconsequential way. Ameliorating the quality of life will come down to altering attitudes of acceptance --> expectations and knowing at a personal dimension 'why this is real and what it will take to fix.' Think, "Acceptance shall set you free." Perhaps it will be slow enough, lobbing impact into the juggling act in a more mollycoddling sequences of onsets -i.e., not overlapping - giving us time to manifest technologies capable of super-charging our salvation engine in this race. Technology got us into this mess - it might even be poetic that we are now enslave to it. There's you dystopian sci-fi novel right there, prequel to the "A.I. Wars," when humanity had no choice but to cede control. - or - Die. Keep in mind, much of this bleak outlook isn't meant to merely gaslight or excoriate ( which somehow got so baked into the anathema over Climate Change, such that whenever anyone hears climate and change in the same sentence there is this antithetic knee jerk reaction based upon fake-science, utilizing any plausibly deniable rationalization that can be imagined). What was pretty elaborately outlined in the damning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports as of late, like that lobbied very recently by Guterras et al, that is based on "at present" response modes Pick. Either deal with it by expediting the acceptance of unavoidable challenges with commitment and proactive resolve as though we were like, OMG, an "adult species" ...Or, completing the metaphor, eschewing responsibility because we'd rather speed dad's sports car while drinking ... and well. There isn't any cushy way out of this. In order for the above 'lesser of two evils' to succeed is going to come down to also navigating the problem of momentum - and momentum in this context has different forces. One form of momentum is: it took 120 years to get western civilities up to speed in a quasi-cooperative and intrinsic codependent life-procurement model, one that is entirely slaved to fossil fuel sequestration that is full spectrum purely provisional, ranging to quality of life socioeconomically constructed. Yet, we are no longer asking; we are informing, we have to stop that 120 years of multi-generational, multiple billion population ways and means method, doing so on top of what amounts to a temporal dime - in other words, NOW. Good luck. I have friends in the higher education/research ambit of Boston area universities, and over holiday cocktail gatherings or summer pool cookouts over the years... we've all come to agree. Global Warming's biggest solution hurdle both at present, hindsight and going forward, is sociological. The solution exists on the other side of: ( some 10% usage of fossil fuel combustion, an approximation assumed because we have technology to stop ...but + 90% sociological "obsticularity" ) / 2 Another form of momentum is in the natural domain. Just because in some magical child like dream of salvation, we could ever wake up tomorrow and completely arrest all fossil fuel burning, along with any other green-house emission loading, world over, the damage would take decades to correct. Recent ocean science has determined that such a fantasy stop would NOT stop the oceans from rising several feet, first. Detrimental environmental impacts have been set into motion, and they don't stop dynamics just because we immediate remove the stimulus that set them into motion. Large natural systems behave by Newtons First law, just like a small object does: they remain in motion until a force of sufficient momentum imposes change. In that sense ... they slow down but don't stop on a dime. That mathematics requires the obvious result of needing to impose corrective measures that are faster than the 120 years it took to get us to this point - as the immediate startling first run through of that arithmetic. Can humans do that? nope. We are not a K1 Civility - or one capable of controlling and or harnessing planetary systems. They should have an F-scale, or ability to f*ck one up, because we're definitely a 10 on that one... Even if so, probably what emerges in the much longer vision is some new paradigm. The original state? lost, never really able to return to the virgin characteristic. Complexity tucks the history of crimes and times into its sort of "ecological/geological fractals," almost like receding into a recessive trait. You just hope the new version is one favorable for whatever goal one needs - in our case, life. These two different momentum curves positively re-enforce one another - obviously. The first ... makes the f*ing 2nd one happen! The IPCC report was a grim one, and it is correct. And the specter of it ...really is too large and too dystopian to really even comprehend in a lot of ways.

Wednesday could be an at Defcon 1 perfect afternoon if these 12Z NAM number play out...

It reminds me of that trope often seen in Sci Fi cinema ...where some invading force or other dystopian finality is thematically arcing over the horizon of the story-line. Meanwhile toes are curling under the audience seats of the movie theater over just how oblivious the moguls are to the fact that they really have no power against this adversary. The recent adaptation ( and unfortunate annihilation of - ) "The Day The Earth Stood Still" science fiction story hit upon that motif big-time. ... while those in and of power-conceit are busy making plans in presumptive control - egregiously unaware - basically wasting time they don't have. Recently we wrote of needing 10 miles to turn a fully-loaded ocean Tanker around, and only having about 2 miles left to do so, with regard to the climate crisis that is real, but is ubiquitously thought of as something less. It's funny... ancient mariners would be so terrified of sailing too far and falling off the edge of the world - even threatening to hang their captains from yard-arms should they not heed and turn back... In a creepy way, that's what happens in the completion of the former metaphor - said Tanker doesn't turn around in time. Lol ..for fun, whether that theme or any others ...it's usually some all-along ostracized scientist that holds the secret Achilles Heal countermeasure to save the world. Here's how that films starts... Fade in: tepid tension in the room, pitting an appointed boob scientist facing an actual crisis ( oops) trying to sound informed though through a well-acted comportment of subtle insecurity in self-awareness. Side's what little this person offers tends to be suppressed by Brass pomp and circumstance in the room. There's another character in the room that's modestly foreshadowed in a close up expression of angst. It all fades to the sound of gravel crunching under tires as a black sedan, polished to a mirror glare, seems out of place when the partially obscuring dust plumes around it's wheel-wells as they tire comes to a halt. I would say two "MIBs" rise out of door, but isn't that now outmoded? the trope its self is changing. We need a more "Millennialized" zeitgeisty type. So perhaps not a sedan but something more styled. Clad in more business casual, with hints of being good looking somewhere under glasses telescoped out of wavy hair either side of modest chiseled sinews, maybe even make it a Rachael Leigh Cook (obscure) in "She's All That" . set up romantic tension; may as well get that out of the way early. Of course, that doesn't work out. This more hip hybrid insider ( of both the conservative rank-and-file as well as the realm of science that deeply eschews the direction of Humanity ) rides the ethical edge between those worlds. Yet, they are the only one who knows or suspects this someone with all the answers. He or she stands looking at the facade of a secluded ranch home. His/her target is the would-be hero of our un-unique story. Having lost their motivation: their intellect stolen; their soul mate also took a different road long ago due to some back-storied attractive narcissist's grander pop appeal - because obviously...they never connected with the would-be hero's intrinsic value - we all instantly sympathize. "I"m out. I gave all that "insight" away - don't you understand futility. The stars die. It doesn't matter how - that is only a human conception: tragedy ... " Anyway, back in the here-and-now.. I have long mused the metaphor where I liken all humanity, from the depths of follies to the exults of celebration, and all senses that construct the reality our existence, it all carries-on with it ... not knowing we are already dead, while suspending x-y-z or putting off a-b-c. Standing around upon the proverbial railroad tracks to destiny, while the iron beneath their feat begins to whir, and no one hears it or feels the vibration awhile they argue about the color shoes being worn to the engagement.

Interesting for climate implication seeking-nerds and scientists ( which can be mutually exclusive characterizations ), perhaps. For weather and/or natural phenomenon -related drama junkies? no so much. wandering thought: Which, part of that psycho-babble form of angst is withdraw syndrome from lacking 'event exposure' too. I mean, modernity "cinemizes" everything now. I mean if there's nothing going on, CNN almost stops shy of "Onionizing" their delivery clawing and scraping for reasons to headline. Which doesn't help. Meanwhile, the events themselves also have been more extreme, with enough increased frequency in recent decade(s) that everyone now thinks that Category 5 blizzards of 9 on the Richter scale earthquaking Carrington Event Super Volcano deep field celestial death life sterilizing CRB radiation blasts better be part of the daily sitcom or we start rattling our cages ... Lol.. in that sense there's not much scheduled to be on T.V. for the next week, no.

It's interesting that with hydrostatic heights down beneath 570 dam, and 900 mb tempertures of 0C over ALB/Logan overnight tonight, we may not frost because of one synoptic metric: wind. DPs are 34 to 40 in the area ...so, that's not helping. I mean if this were a 24 F DP air mass the radiative potential might force decoupling ( cold accumulation) and lift the wind up ...blah blah there you go. But with 15 to 20 mph sustained middle BL flow, and DPs staying in the mid 30s ... probably is 39 F type low for most. Guess we can't rule out a valley collecting enough chill and calming out for a couple hours, duh. But by and large, we nearly miss a more widespread lawn glower dawn tomorrow morning it would seem.

Today is the first day of autumn... It may not last the duration, and probably can't with the new climate paradigm no one admits exists of wild extreme autumns ranging from snow chances to 79er air masses. But somewhere in that din of hysteria weather types, ..there necessarily are days like today to symbolize the change .

I recommend “Arctic Drift” GBH

I warned you you didn’t take it seriously ? I said we’d likely diurnal destruct CAA clouds. Ah well

It's almost comical how y'all seemed to evade the main central thesis of jbenedet's post, focusing instead on subsidiary aspect of growing season. He didn't make it any easier by choosing to engage therein ... but, the interesting and overwhelmingly more meaningful aspect he's brought to light, regarding the transition season -NAO increased tendencies, really 'should be' the focus there. Which, by the way ... I have been hammering that observation for 5 years now myself - just sayn'. I think it has to do with subtle velocity surpluses with early and later jet materialization around the hemisphere - associate with Scott's favorite topic, Hadley Cell expansion. Because the amorphous/gradient rich boundary where that aspect of the greater Walker circulation terminates into the westerlies, is pushing N, it is causing these earlier/later R-wave responses. It's probably not a coincidence that the HC expansion, that is being quotable around the ambit of greater sciences, is routinely noting that the HC-e is more evidenced in the transition seasons - I suspect it is a matter of time before that link is made between it, and these unusual early(late) shared polar domain spaces like the lower WPO-EPO-NAO axis. This doesn't effect the AO directly - most likely.

I'm not sure what the significance of this may be ... how situational/conditional it is, just to this season, but that is a big difference in a single year to year/by date comparison of sea ice coverage. The SSTs of the expose Beaufort Sea are naturally very cold, even in the summer... so it is "conditionally" set up for rapid re-freeze. But in order to do so, still requires the pattern in the air-ocean coupled environment to support the phase transition to ice. Obviously there are a lot of textured complexities in the total manifold of forcing mechanisms ... some that included Time as a function ... Comparing one season to the next is risky. But that's a huge difference there between these years. Eye-ballin', larger than TX

I know and the writing was on the wall on that one. I had this imagined scene of fans kinda turnin heads back and forth at each other, collectively thinking 'Uhmm is this gonna end wall?' - but they knew. You could just feel the energy in the stadium of that sauce before it sprayed, right through the TV. Baseball is like that. It's the most prescient sport there is