Typhoon Tip

Maybe helps qualify the experience ... maybe not? But this winter has under performed relative to episodic patterns borne events with higher ceiling potential, that verified less. When that happens ... I suspect that can magnify a person's negative take things. For fun metaphor ... it's like Lucy, Charlie Browning the winter enthusiasts satisfaction. You know, the author of Charlie Brown was just finding a Walt Disney way to exposing the child to the the life lesson of the prick tease bitch

Interesting next 7 days on the operational runs... GFS: basically serves up a 'little critter' that may or may not 'bite,' about once every 3 or so days through D10 actually.. I'm inclined to still suggest we watch Mar 3-5 in there... That's not completely dead, but admittedly less likely for meridion expression. But the GGEM ... ( hate to admit, the ICANT model) have a chance with a clipper redeveloper/NJ model... After that, the GFS absorbs the increasing sun and celestial forcing and goes back to dreams of January right to 384 hours independent of any index mode - typical problem with this new species of GFS technology they started rollin' new FV's with some 6 years ago .. but I digress with snark. The Euro, with it's smoothing tendencies built into the particular guidance ( 4-d blah blah blah) doesn't carry those, but what it does offer is 6 days of below normal temperatures after our present event. So at least through next Friday...this snow has a shot at sticking around. The sun is obviously a huge factor now and getting huger ... but it's still just early enough that a below normal atmosphere with clouds will help the snow enthusiast's cause. But WOW what a change happens abruptly next Saturday morning! Just as is, in this run, that's about as impressive a warm frontal passage you'll ever see... You go from -10C at 850, Friday afternoon, to +10 C Saturday mid morning... d(T) of 20 ... It would be interesting to see that happen, because Saturday afternoon would be light winds and fully sun in March through a sounding that would support 70, over a snow pack. That would be a neat competition.

Awesome ! that's like a snowglobe

This should be the new standardized metric for determining storm significance/ impact scaling. In order for a storm to be significant, this ( bold ) cannot take place.

We've been snowing steadily for the last hour here in Ayer with exquisite champagne aggregates... small and mid sizes, dancing around one another. The visibility ... perhaps 1/2 mi, perhaps another 1/2" has accumulated since the main thrust of the event ended three or so hours ago. 6.5" now

Yeah was just texing with some met buddies about that 'filling in' Might be in part what you and I were discussing earlier - re some lvl growth and so forth. The larger picture hints like the mlv lag up in NY/VT might try to join with that region you're seeing there. we may yet 2-3" this -

Yeah that granular kind of 'less than photogenic' radar product the NWS gives out to the public ( https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOm51bGwsImNlbnRlciI6Wy03Mi4xMzEsNDIuMzE4XSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjh9LCJhbmltYXRpbmciOnRydWUsImJhc2UiOiJzdGFuZGFyZCIsImFydGNjIjpmYWxzZSwiY291bnR5IjpmYWxzZSwiY3dhIjpmYWxzZSwicmZjIjpmYWxzZSwic3RhdGUiOmZhbHNlLCJtZW51Ijp0cnVlLCJzaG9ydEZ1c2VkT25seSI6ZmFsc2UsIm9wYWNpdHkiOnsiYWxlcnRzIjowLjgsImxvY2FsIjowLjYsImxvY2FsU3RhdGlvbnMiOjAuOCwibmF0aW9uYWwiOjAuNn19#/ ) ...HAHAHA... sorry Looks like that activity that Will and I were talking about, where there's a pretty good saturated layer beneath inversion in this end game, and it's filling in with pixie visibility miasma now here in the interior.

Weeklies? In a 'weeklies' we'll be full-on embedded in both the human distinction of spring, but of vaster more importance ... that which is instructed by celestial mechanics. LOL You know ... that whole annoying aspect of the sun gaining altitude along it's zenith? March has the hugest D(solar) variance as we cross the equinox... I'm already seeing seasonal 'flashing' tendencies in the longer range guidance - that's just what I call it when the cold hydrostatic heights tend to abruptly fill, and the coherence of the R-wave ( long wave ) orientation seems to get less. It's really the "bowling season" - which despite winter's paliative end life, can provide the biggest storm one's seen in years. LOL. Excluding the rare scenaro ... I don't have as good an optimistic feel for the mid month period as others. Radiative forcing is likely to creep into modulating these outlooks at some point.

K, so... Ayer ( not too far from town center ) just measured 6" on the button. So, that was a decent eye-ball est...but, I thought that 2 hours ago, so it was probably 5 then. Anyway, rad has this ending now, for the time being... We may fill this back in N of the Pike later in the afternoon is some of the modeling is correct - particularly down at this end of Rt poopie. We did actually ping just a slightly little bit. Though it was more like crumbly mangled aggregates, not merely sleet accompanying a falling snow. ... but right here as it is ending. It's not really distinguishing itself amongst what's fallen. like 90/10 say... We are probably right at the very vanish boundary of that penetration. Fun little system - may be the last the year... I get it that some will come away sort of 'jilted' in the south - not intending to be insensitive to those IMBY's but... Very early post mortem take on this event is that it's greatest QP limitation was the speed in which it moved. Snow primarily N of the Pike ... the consensus for meaningful sleet (> 50%) was better handled by a longer-termed modeling consensus, less any individual runs that may have shown more or less ...Subject to change/open to other insights.

It's really raced through ...wow. I mean we knew that was/could be a limiting factor, but fall rates would need to be pretty huge to get to the 12" end of the range ( speaking for Rt 2 corridor folk or where ever else was all snow). We never pinged once here in Ayer. 21 F. Presently a burst of mod/hvy but looking at rad, this ends to flurry bursts after glow here over the next little while. I was est 6" two hour ago. We had a nice burst around 5 to 7 am where it appears the ballast of this fell. Prior cracked eye out of slumber looked very light out of window. Two dreams later ... eye shot featured exceedingly low visibility during that 2-hr time span. It's been S- between 7 and very recently. We'll probably end up 8.1 or something.

This does not absolve your loutish crass demeanor in this engagement - unfortunately - with the possible exception of those that with mid brow I.Q.s Your POS of turn of phrase is a false equivalence to my calling you out for it. But you obviously wont' take culpability for your own actions in that matter, and your ego doesn't accept what it is you just proved yourself to be. Ignorable

6" here est .. no measure just yet, but using the standard weiner window method. S- at the moment. Radar appears to have a sleet ball N CT to springfield Mass, so the sleet line probably made it to the Pike ( so far). Ptype rad shows the snow is still tucked deep into CT ... must be a very elevate melt layer, which is consistent with a very highly sloped elevated front. I'm skeptical of 'wrap around' idea this evening over NE zones/S NH... Too often I've seen that end up butterscotch glowing skies flurries, *however* this situation may strand a saturated layer under inversion, and that can end up being steady light from those mechanics.

You're being a fantastic asshole ! All I ever said about the UKMET is that people were auto-86ing the solution, with no logic or reasoning behind what was ( clearly..) some knee-jerk neurotic defensiveness. I merely said, 'I'm not sure I see why the UK has to necessarily be wrong' You got pissed, because I touched a nerve. Tough shit! That was impulsive to do so - That's it. Sorry I never avered the model would be right. I even gave a rough percentage of model weighting, said to use 15% UKMET, which was the minority input by a goodly margin. Get a grip. This storm was handled well by the models. I stated multiple times that it would sleet to the Pike - and in fact, that has not even happened yet. Also, people over all are completely judging model performance based upon what's going on out the window IMBY - this is gone back to primitive internet culture circa 2002 BS ... whatever.

My fault

Do you really think that -EPO is all the bluster though? You know I'm beginning to have my doubts. Take this for example ... last night's GGEM and Euro operational runs move a close 540 dm ridge node through the Alaskan sector, between day 2 and day 6. 540 That's what's come of the -EPO that was forecast for this episode back when it was 10 or 12 days in advance, when I recall that being significantly more amplified in the model depiction/vision... Point being, the tendency to over-do that blocking up there seems air apparent, and I am noticing subtle nuances in the GEFs to belay ( also ) the -EPO it has. ...I'm just a little leery of the 'over magnification' thing getting into deterministic territory/ranges as not being as "instructive". The other aspect is more orbital ...we are about to really transform the hemisphere by radiative forcing ( seasonality ). The 00z operational Euro, excluding details..., in principle shows a 'flashing' of the hemisphere, with a pattern break down and sudden warming of 850 mb layout over the Canadian shield. GGEM does too... The GFS doesn't but that model has a ranging speed hard-on in July so ... Anyway, I'm just not as sold on cash-in result from mid March. Obviously, we can get blizzards until May 10th around here. This doesn't preclude the 1997's or 1977s or 1888s... But barring those, I'm not sure the pattern really is 'dependable'

The strength matter there ... The stronger depiction ( right ) would lend to the stronger warm intrusion aloft -

Lol, ...I just caught this ... ha - although, in a way it's entirely right - because the "25th" could certainly included all the missed opportunities, too.

I wonder if the ratio/stack efficiency is being considered enough here ? - haven't heard/read much discussion related to that. Presently, the hygroscopic temperature is quite deep here N of ~ HFD-PVD-TAN over SNE. However .. a key difference in this particular idiosyncrasy: unlike the typical wet bulb saturation temperature result ( 2/3rds to 3/4ths the distance toward the temperature side) this air mass is superbly back-built off -10 to +10 F (N-->S) polar-arctic air mass source that is not moving during the duration of this event. I'm not trying to "bun" a way to get to those huge totals here ( hahaha) but if 1.2" of model blended QPF suspends through this column from any DGZ ... provided there isn't a sufficiently large amount of riming probably sends the ratios to or over 15:1 - I don't honestly know if there is a ratio calculator of sorts for deterministic efforts; that's just years of experience offering that suggestion. If so, that's our 18" at maxes ...certainly 15". I'm just offering one way to get it done that is still consistent with the synoptic metrics I'm looking at this morning. Heh, these system always provide at least tedious distractions for a turbo nerds - maybe this question is one of them. LOL The caveats are: warm layer at 800 - if that gets too close, the jig is up ... that impedes by densely compacting the aggregate... well, fluff factor drops. speed of the system - I think this is moving very fast.. perhaps limiting, and adding to that ... if the nested frontogen banding "pulses" on rad, together we don't distribute enough QP anyway - you may have hinted at this by saying you liked the distribution but not the magnitude. Whether those are more stationary aligned somewhere between the Pike and rt 2, or over Rt 2 ...etc... would matter, because if a 2 or 3"/hr band were anchored for 3 or 4 hours, that'd do it.

Mein kampf looks a little NORLUNy into NE Mass Friday evening

Not a whole helluva lot - unlikely. Mine were spit ballin. But frankly the blended means been some 80% of where the consensus is now goin back three days.

I believe this is the biggest diurnal change of the entire season LOL… Seriously though – maybe go in the other direction but whatever

I know! let’s ask George what the weighting array should be …

Well sure. I mean the discussion on weighting probabilities is based on where we are heretofore up to this point. If things sig change tomorrow than the conversation’s moot - we’d have to come up with a different percent contribution

GFS 30% ECM 25% GGEM 20% UKM 15% mesos the remainder with less emphasis on the NAM in this aggregate mean for 10%

I thinks that’s too heavy. Arithmetically, if we blend all other guidance, then take that mean and blend it with the NAM that’s given that helmet and drool cup kid one helluva participation trophy