Typhoon Tip

Yeah ... The models have two on-going biases: They are consummately too strong in their total synoptic emergence' in the mid+ ranges And when they inevitably bust that way, ironically the system in question still [somehow or why] rains out 3-fold more than they were modeled to do so.

Probably a good opportunity to address the Euro amplitude bias ...for the 3,855th time ... wrt to D8 and EC -orienting cyclone synoptics. It's so badly ever verifying ... the obviousness of it builds into the observers expectations, such that ( phew!) we'd never have to see these charts get posted. Lol - Bustn' ballz a little but ...yeah, that looks like the Euro doing its typical dog-'n'-pony show of applying hyper-curved physical forcing to everything it happens to be handling at that time range. It basically does that at two time intervals: one is over the relay of D5+ ...The other is anytime after D7+ ... There is coherent sudden increases in the "complexion" and depth artistry of these graphics routinely out of ECMWF's product suite, that seems to just poof! Shows up like some kind of dram-lust magic It's part of their marketing ploy, I'm convinced... It only helps their sales/licensing if the model "users" are regaled by a stem-wound bomb on every other model-cycle. They're drug dealers - Anyway, I don't know if the EPS does this...but, looking at it - it's no wonder ( either way ) is is significantly more pallid compared to stalling a Category 3 "Hurricaneaster" over Time's Square.

Personally ...i'd settle for excitement and entertaining events and not so much for the damage. Ones priorities change when they maintain a mortgage heh

Walt ... oh Walter Drag ... haha, I just saw "Drag files here to attach, or choose files..." and coincidentally that reminded me of who you meant - weird. well I agree then But the GFS ( fwiw - ) has the warm front pinned to the S with a cad signature - also possible. But southern CT/RI down to NYC could be gunnin' in that GFS. The thing is, if the warm front does get to southern VT/NH, then a 500 mb vort goes by to the south, that's a wild few hours for the interior. Only D4 isn't the worst range.

You know ...now that I take closer look at the D4 synopsis off the Euro, that has an autumn- style synoptic severe potential. That 850 warm front is up to central NE...and the pressure contours actually suggest that the surface boundary might be displace N of the 500 mb trough amplitude ...situating SSW of NYC. Unusual for this time of year ... but that would supply sick helicity stress through the entire SNE column and doing with destablizing mid level lapse rates - with that 500 mb core as it approaches... Nice -

not that it matters either way ... anyway, let's play the 'wow, 'magine if that was deep winter when that happened' game

I pissed and moaned about the durational shit storm off the Labrador two days ago - it's not new

Welp ...this ought'n be the last warm- ish day for at least a little while. I don't suspect the warm calls for specific days ..what was that, 27th 30th and Halloween ? have a lot of confidence when we have suppressed back-drilling -NAO over the western limb of the domain, and an active Pacific relay pattern sending atmospheric nuke waves "under" our latitude. The Euro's been selling the last in the series as breaking in on itself and stalling over OH ... hm, cannot toootally refute that idea - after all ... -NAO is blocking. Particularly when the ridge/+hgt aspect is situating N of Maine. Weird region for that actually. But, the Euro also tends to curl up and package wave spacing too much beyond D5's in all older versions going back to 1990s ... I realize we've just "fixed" it but who knows if the former genetic inheritance is part of that. The GFS tries to stretch the flow more and make the whole time span appear more proper -NAO cyclone track suppressed. Which also ...cannot be outright negated as plausible. The blend of the two is probably a tendency for a long ... long stretch of easterly fetch of tepidly cool autumn air. Then, we'll see what that first week of Novie brings. I'm still interested in that time span for a more robust colder regime. It seemed originally as though that could arrive .. well, now, post the 20th, but it was always a rangy affair. I won't consider the telecon spread/mass-field tenor as a failed indicators until it gets clear that we don't.

I dunno - these autuman/seasonal book-end -NAOs have been a repeating theme for a decade now, regardless of ENSO types leading/during/enduring... I don't know if this is really "caused" by La Nina - it is just as likely that: a it is coincidentally occurring; whatever reason is driving the seasonal pro-lapse/lapse at either end phenomenon, happens to be happening when La Nina appears more coherent. We shouldn't get happy about connecting the dots when it's true/been true in multiple varied leading factorization. b it is both ...so the NAO is being augmented, but still cannot be "entirely" attributed to ENSO in that sense. c all ENSO driven ...which is what I suspect a lot of seasonal educated guess-work would prefer, because that's just an older popular mantra that - yes - has been shown to be (at least) statistically significant in climate efforts ..blah blah. But I caution that CC is making those historical inferences less confident moving forward. This has been hugely suggested actually, as the last two hefty warm ENSOs did not bear as much "El Nino destructive fruit" when observing the typical climate routes -

Oh yeah...I remember that stand-up he did. I wanna say 1980s actually. I didn't re-listen to the whole thing but I do remember it. Interesting. Full circle. I was ever aware or remembering that bit of his when around 98, the first time I am drove down to Va Beach via the Del Marva route, and experience that area of the mid Atlantic. It seem we have disparate experiences converging on the same take-away. I dunno - maybe y'all like it but consider yourselves warned LOL

It's actually gotten better in all honesty .. but I like that kind of observational humor so thought I'd embellish. It was really much more like that up through about 2002... seemed to start changing soon after that. That "annexing" thing, for "gun-'n'-tackle" strip malls and an assortment of repeating fast food cardio stops I guess are something. It is an attempt/movement toward revitalization... Back in the day ...it was all about countless old abandoned real-estate ... trees growing out of the living room windows of a partially roof-collapsed houses set equidistant out amid a half mile square flat expanse, were too commonly seen to be ultimately comforting; with ghosts moaning 'faaaaaailure' in the winds of nostalgia you actually weren't really ever a part of ? it's weird - hence the creepy vibe. But you get that anywhere.... Hell, driving through upstate NY and your eye catches glimpse of some abandoned church set back partially obscured behind a stone wall and figure its been annexed by the local rape -underground. I don't know what it is... something about greasy-spoon rural settings cast a weird vibe of being separated from the hip vision of directive progressive culture and okay ... I don't mean to act elitist - some are happy in that realm, and more power to them - not me. Even though I am f'n stuck in Ayer Mass.

Did he really? ... Omg, no shit - I'm saying - that's a great line; I could have started that passage in there with that sentence, then gone from there. I mean exactly! I like George's comedy but I am not familiar with what ever that came from but yeah man - Dover is like really trying the best it can but is pedestrian ...

Omg, that sentence just eloquently and succinctly describes the entire span on the other side of the Chesapeake Bay, too. I don't know why Delaware actually needs to exist, frankly. I think it's it pull yanks over to harass them for fun. Yes...known as the Delaware spirit abyss ( ..the Eastern Shore to locals), if one ever has to drive that dreaded 230 miles between I-95 down to the Chesapeake Bridge-Tunnel, you'll know this agony. The only redeeming interlude along that eternal distance is ... maaaybe Dover. With a truly visionary and enlightening Barnes&Nobles and Au Bon Pains, mashed up with locally favorite prideful retail, it's a 'real up and comer cutting edge cultural destination'. Heh. Otherwise, Dover is long lights servicing some 10 contiguous miles of parking lots that astride the 8 lane-widened Rt 1 boulevard as it cuts through town. You know..I think it may be possible to start at one end ... and use the internal connectors between parking lots and make the entire distance having never actually been on the boulevard there... (there's always that to think about to pass the time) Why? omg - Then almost immediately upon escaping Dover, heading south on Rt 1, narrows down to 2 lanes and becomes just an unforgiving eternity. I swear, the Earth is 25,000 miles in circumference ... that 180 miles between Dover the rest of the way to Bridge-Tunnel goes around that distance 2wice! I'm convinced of it. It's a flat expanses that repeats cycling through abandoned farmsteads that are slowly being annexed by single story strip malls that just look tired and sleepy and futile from the road as you try not to look, zipping past 20 mph over the speed limit ...anything, to not admit you are there because it's creepily vapid - almost ineffably so. You can just feel the insular energy there, as though the fish-denizens have no idea there's a universe out side the glass at either ends. Although Lil' Miss Eliot hails from that region - I am told - and really like her dirty-ass rap song ... so she's okay I guess. My sister lives in Va Beach. .. Funny thing is, I once missed the Rt 1 exit off I-95 just over the Del Mem Bridge that one time, as I hadn't driven the trek in 12 years - it's kind of a tricky nexus... You have to really look for it after slipping through the bridge's exit tolls or you may miss. That time, I'm looking for it and instead start seeing exit numbers of Washington D.C. ... oh no! Turns out, it wasn't that bad, though. Even Maryland Staties were doin' 90 mph with a single arm draped languid over their wheels while texting ... As long as demography was tacking in a 88, perhaps that didn't offer these guys any challenges that triggered primal contest with authority, so they left us alone. I actually got all the way down to the junction of 74 E, in Va, in just 8 total hours, and it was only another 1.5 ~ to pass by the Norfolk Naval Base. It made me wonder why I was ever talked into doing the Del Marva route by family back in the day - never thought to challenge. The Bridge-Tunnel is fascinating, and that's why. They were talking about it as a fun ride. And it is. It's 29 miles of road that as you approach it from the Del Marv side, it looks serpentine like Asian dragon art, as it lurches out of the water, and then descends out of sight beneath the gray plain of the Bay (presumably - one hopes - as it goes into tunnels). There are two over water expanses and two tunnels; the latter allows the mariner traffic ...both military and commercial industrial. Talking 3 football field-long cargo 'islands' so massive that at 20 kts they look like they are standing still on the Bay horizon, and if you time lucky, an actual WMD known as Air Craft Carrier en route to the Naval base. I mean, your driving 30 feet over the water out in the middle of the ocean, then you go ... under the ocean. It's pretty cool. But, 15 min later your breaching the opposite shore having not drowned in a catastrophic failure of engineering or tsunamis.. So, it's now bit of decision upon exiting the Del Mem Bridge: Do I set myself up for two anxiety-loaded sessions with my analyst, enduring so for to experience Bridge-Tunnel. My biggest fear is that fractal reality strikes when I'm passing through, and then I wake up one morning 20 years later in a state of rationalization that, "I guess it wasn't so bad how that happened and I ended up here."

Old habits die hard ...

I was in Michigan for that one... I had moved back there for just that one autumn/winter to care-take my grandfather's home, for he'd taken to illness and needed palliative care back east with the rest of the family. There wasn't much impact by the storm there lol

Lol... right. wasn't there a record there like... I wanna say 7 years ago? Somewhere along the coastal region of Alaska wound up with decades in feet of snow or something hyper anomalous like that. Probably a global warming attribution study chance maybe even.. but yeah, they probably get snow-rate visibility so low that it's coming down in one's living room in those set ups.

Kinda weird maybe but ... I have a couple of bucket-list items. One is to experience a record Death Valley heat wave ... just step outside in slow-bread bake temperatures. Like Captain Kirk in space, 'something everyone should experience' heh. The other one is that Tower Minnesota thing, where a cup of boiling water throw into the air in -42 F actually explodes do to thermal expansion at saturation vapor pressure. Half the water instantly goes to gas, while the other half shards to the ground like glass falling out of a car crash, probably the fastest natural setting phase change there can be.

Well yeah that too - it only adds. Maybe positive interfering - yuck. That said, I wonder if/when the gradient of winter kicks in, if we are just going to slip back into the same scenario where the patterns don't look like ENSO signals. That's been pretty common in recent winters. You know what, it's an impossible parsing ... Whether we have a ENSO -related SE ridging vs HC tendencies to keep southern heights from seasonal suppression ( as readily ...), the two skew which is which at any given time. Longer bloviation: My personal opinion is that in the absence of any ENSO signal, the gradient is going to be something like a fixed 6 to 10 dam more sloped between JB and the GOM than 20 years ago, anyway, because of CC/ heavy science in the matter that is no refereed and cannot be denied - sorry to heavy hand that but it seems people hesitate acceptance of HC. Not you per se, but folks need to realize that HC expansion is not a subtropical ridge in that sense. One cannot identify it that way. It's a planetary integral, expressed as a lateral/latitude increase in the Walker circulation eddy, while the circulation it's self is actually weakening. The interface between the lower Ferrel Cell and the Hadley ( where the jet streams reside) is not a fixed location.. it meanders ...obviously... but that is the virtual boundary of the HC. The mean positions are north of 1950 by 4 to 9 ( as of 7 years ago ) latitude, N and S of the Eq. That is all HC expansion means - *BUT* that small number means a velocity increase everywhere because of more gradient - that effects the R-wave distribution, and among other physical impacts ... may in fact be f*ing up the correlation models of the ENSO ... Hence the vague patterning in recent winters. I mean it's like right there.

I should caboose that ... perhaps mild - relative to climate - works IMBY up in NNE still

Yeah ... I'm not sure mild will work for snow enthusiasts. Firstly, the impetus for thinking that way - if I have this correct ... - is that at our latitude/geography and climate, mild in the past was good for 10:1 type snows and that mild is more doom and gloom down Jersey way and points south. I'm not sure that is the same any more with CC/migration N ... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54771-winter-2021-2022/?do=findComment&comment=6152314 ..granted that is hypothesis and may not bear discrete analysis whatever ... but, really and truly since ...I dunno 2006 .. '08, don't feel as good about marginal situations here like I used to back in the 1990s - that's for sure.

74

Mm "institutionalized" is the condensed word for that. It can't really be one-off triggered ( boy that'd be nice... ) But we've often heard the phrase "institutional racism" ? As we all know ..blah blah institutional racism is the systemic operation [society] from a basis of racial constraints. Uh ... in more life- relevant terms, methods in the ways and means and behaviors on the streets to offices and all walks, are built-in rules based upon assumptions handed down through cultural lineage over generations - that's what it means to you and me. At individual levels ( I think ) the fact that people operate within those inherited social constructs are "unconsciously biased" in their maneuvers and decisions and thoughts, while in collection, turn the gears of communities and country. That's the nuts and bolts of the "institutional racism" motif - even though the individual persons may in fact not harbor any overtly obvious hatred or distrust based upon diversity. It's really "institutional acceptance and tradition" that is the better euphemism and is paramount. People really only know what they were raised to know (bear with me - there relevancy to this...) In the moment? There are douce-bag humans that should drop dead - agreed. But the majority, I don't think so. They'd be happy to have a diversity to dinner. Sit next to them in church. Play on sports teams with them. Share the international space station. Collaborate on projects. Just be friends and lovers. That's not racism. However, by convention further above they are unwittingly complicit. They turn the gears of society using the levers handed down to them, so they are oblivious conventional racists. Something of a similar phenomenon seems to be happening with this anti CC. A counter-culture developed out of an anathema about Climate Change - sort of "racist against the very science of climate change its self," based upon inherited culture motif-assumptions. Add in that there is a factor of mentally untenability, just by shear magnificence of the specter - people just really are not very well prepared to process the enormity of what climate change means --> apocalypse ... before even approaching the anthropomorphic causality. They can't do it. That takes time .. That can be certainly sped up - usually where there is more at stake, forces pragmatic changes ... adoption of ways and means. A lot of that comes back to that talking point of "...Climate change does not appeal to the corporeal senses" the same way as picking up a hot handle to an iron skillet. That stimulus teaches, 'don't do that' ... immediately. And that lesson sticks. That is a cultural force that does not change in the individual for life - usually... lol. CC does not have any such advocate. If "threat" does not (most importantly) adversely appeal to one of the natural, corporeal "USB ports that connect the human brain, and downloads reality" ( sight, sound, smell, tough and taste ), whatever the message is, is only considered. So where we've managed since the 1990s when the uh-oh era began: We completely f'ed up the climate warnings because of the "shimmering example" in diplomatic flair and acumen of the scientific ambit - we came at the above human condition with blazing excoriations in doom when - wait just a second! - according to existential awareness, this has saved relatives from cancer. Extended life in general. So vastly improved quality of life in as little as great great grandparent-ago that we'd almost seem like aliens to our own ancestors. Add that to the list of cogs in the catch-22 gears machining our doom ( I suspect... but some days my mood changes - haha). When the virtuosity and import of knowledge is held back by a stupidity dam of communicative improficiencies ... what's the f'ing use of knowing all the answers? Sorry, but a lot of a CC denial is on us; it was a defensive narrative formulated for being unconsciously threatened by the 'artless rhetoric' of the earlier messengers. Humans are emotional... That aspect is primitive [perhaps], but was always there first - the advent of higher order, emotion compensating reasoning and the ability to shed motifs in lieu of the pith of what is actually being conveyed, fails pretty quickly venturing outside of science ambit - where... the 90+% of society actually still juggles all these psychic response pathways. So CC denial may not exactly be institutional denial, no - but there is something similar to it, where is functioning on a platform of plausible deniability/ Probably because denial-solution needs a few cities to sink like Atlantis, along with a pretty significant uncontrolled population correction to crack it's foundation of lies.

It's going to be hard to parse out what is forecasting debonaire, vs what is just normal seasonal migration of the pattern/tendencies, though. Particularly as it relates to advancing, " ...just how late in November it happens..." sentiments, though. And I also wonder about GEFs and or EPS and or GEPs means way out there, too - I mean, yeah, we have years that butt-boned Novembers... We have had Novembers, however rare, that are quite amiable to winter enthusiasts. But if one looks at all Novembers since Columbus stole the America's for spice, or the Conquistador ransacked for gold while attempting to annex their brand of imperialism ... that time of the year between Nov 1 and Dec 1 - I strongly hunch - demos shedding some 20 to 30 dm in the basal state, non-hydrostatic hgt depths of the atmosphere between 160W/40 N to 50W/40 N. Which concomitantly means ... the gradient has increased --> velocities ( ambient ) have seasonally increased --> the establishment R-waves spacing --> in situ "pattern canvas" will have emerged/been exposed. That's all going to happen whether one forecasts it to, or not. So this isn't a gripe ..but more a philosophy/pragmatic question. Obviously La Nina Novembers have their climatology - but ... I also suggest the ENSO stuff is still mangled by CC, and the forcing on the global circulation machinery is still being suspect when it comes to that "macro-metric" driver.

Thermometers of the not-too-far-off future will be quantum sampling the thermal kinetic state, which won't require any of the apparatus constraints being an obvious advantage. But that advantage is like thousands of times more accurate ... on the deep, irrelevant right-side of the decimal points. These modern station sites may in fact error up to 3 degrees in particularly stressed circumstances, but are usually < 1 error... etc etc, so that sort of 'chunk' error will be recouped, but it will be capable of sub-tolerance precision. I mean, 32.00000000000001431732 still freezes water due to the uncertain principle in that realm/sense of it.. But such a quantum sampling device, ... an integration of quantum thermometers with optics/satellite detection methods, will mean when it site reads a given temperature, it is that temperature a that site - really. ... I'm hoping it is 32.00000451, when the icing tolerance is 32.000000450

Eegh... gag was hopin' that signal would fade next week but if anything, ... it appears to have become that much more coherent overnight. In fact, of those ...30 some odd members of the GEFs, now 2/3rds are on board. It's not even a -NAO so much as a REX-block that evolves 'close' to the NAO's domain, and by virtue of that proximity, ...the NAO calculations are down below 0 SD. Everywhere N-E/SE of the lower Maritime of Canada toward the D. Straight/Greenland/Iceland and S is actually rather (+) looking... The result is just a tormented misery construct, as though built deliberately for an attack against decency upon the civilities from the MA to NE. "Next week" may as well be two weeks - my god. I looked at the last 3 consecutive runs of the operational GFS' layouts, and looking at those 00z members that support ... the means ( eye-ballin') is like 7 straight days of easterly to NE hosing off the Labradorian anus tube, at a time of year the means 56/52 for 168 to 192 hours with no sun. Is that what people meant when hiding their misery behind the mantra that so long as early winter isn't reliable, I'd rather it be above normal until late November? This? this GFS/GEFs pattern strikes all intents and wants and purposes about as equilaterally as imaginably wrong, to minimize as much redemptive value as it plausibly can. No soul is spared. The Euro, ...whose performance is still bearing scrutiny due to new release ... seems to be offering a synopsis that more resembles the 1/3 of those members mentioned above, that don't support 'quite' the extremeness of agony the others are. But one aspect they all seem to favor is a general tendency for the mass of the lower troposphere to unrelentingly move from east -> west the majority of the time. Probably the blend of the whole thing argues, if one has the luxury of unused vacation time along with the wherewithal to flee to another region out side the MA-NE inhumane climate shithole, you really may want to consider a 10 day escape, ... hell, even consider the sabbatical if you can't. Sometimes toleration and sanity just requires it ...