Typhoon Tip

That jets pushing the ceiling on physics there... no doubt, but what's missing is a nice fan evac over N. NY-NNE ...If that were there, the snow on the cold side of the baroclinic axis would be better for those that are looking for that... Frankly I think you're all f nuts... I'd rather be like today or warmer from here on out but oh well.

...heh, "season" is a thing of the past. We're all mid aged now ... kind of opportunistic when we can go. We did one back in January on one of those milder days with no snow on the ground, most realistically out of desperation to get an out.

Albany ( NAM ) looks like they could get an impressive short duration snow blitz. They're packing .75" melted in a total snow sounding on the NAM FOUS. This situation is razor sharp really. The NAM grid is harder to delta between the intervals. Look at LGA ... They go from spitting QPF to a truck load, in a sounding that starts out in mid May and end up late January 240 03989255 02005 981506 51070603 30083909234 08115 913328 43999499

I'm kidding...

Not to be prig or a dick ... but I'm going to - what the f are we spending all this time needling through the carpet, surfing ( urban vernacular/metaphor) for any slipped rock nuggets to get us a d-drip.. Gosh, it looks pathetic. ...ha! Now, watch us get 12" of positive bust in a 1::1000 lotto winner, only because I said that -

As in, at all ? ..ha. I love baseball, but admit it's hard... getting harder for the average spectator. With all other distractions pawing at attention, there's just too much other stuff. Who the hell has time to sit through languid pitch counts ... game caller guys filling with anything they can that ultimately is meaningless to what's going on or one's time. Yeah, the future doesn't end well for that engagement. It's a problem for the game. It's 'on the wrong side of history.' It made sense - maybe - pre Internet/ media-tech -based culturally. I mean it'll survive for a longer while... inevitably dwindling draw. In the interim, there is still a large population that remembers ... perhaps with nostalgia. That target demo-g is there... But the longer term model of the game ? I agree - has to evolve into something new.

By the way ...for our winter enthusiasts, the anticipated 'bowling season' is showing up in the guidance as increasingly more plausible. One thing I'm seeing is the 'spring flash' passing over the operational models. It's not a fixed "effect" year to year, but it's when the pervasive veneer of colder availability/in situ across the N-tier and southern Canada, abruptly retreats and/or modulates up. This even this weekend appears to herald that in. It appears to coil winter up with it and trundles away as a deep pattern changing bomb- which is almost like a symbolic "seasonal Archembault" thing ... (that's interesting). anyway, next week we are left with more minoring 850 mb plumes and general warm tapestry of hydrostatic heights have taken over. *BUT* ... that still offers winter hope - ironically. Because the flow is relaxed, and it is curved in nature. The slowing velocities in the ambience allows that latter to happen, and there is the risk of closing off these parcels of mechanics. That's 1997 incarnate - not saying that's walking through the door. Just that closing off systems over marginal thickness settings is how you go from 64 F to 33 F at 10" of blue bomb snow ... which melts away in 3 days and your back in the 60s ...but, that's bowling season.

Today's likely to be impressive too... Low 20s at dawn, it's already 40-44 at home sites around the area.

Hey PF ... Monday's a 'diurnal spread watch' from what I am seeing. ...I mean it's one of my little dorkisms about spring(autumn) season(s), to test the extremeness of diurnals? I think you mentioned sharing in this crushing tedium LOL But, that looks like decoupling Sunday night to a pretty deep layer... going to an interesting correction Monday afternoon. I think up your way, mid summit up, SW winds overnight - tougher there. The valleys may actually not mix out at all the following afternoon on Monday. Otherwise, we could be dead calm 19 at dawn around SNE Monday morning, and make 57F that afternoon. WSW flow during the day under full equinoxian full sun? Seeing 850 mb explode from -11C at dawn, all the way to +3 by evening ...whilst dry advection/ clear ceiling, which means the mixing depth may extend higher than one may think. The gradient seems too week to force that much correction at that level, so it's gotta be mixing... Pretty cool. Winter coats to heavy nape.

Oh of course... I feel like Aprils haven't been as bad as May the last three years. ...I dunno. I think the return rate on "nice" April's somewhere like 1 in 387 years, so we're not really due for a while

It's 53 here... Light wind. Though the sun is pal through some milk there, it's still warmish. no snow left. It's pretty remarkable how this compares to about 5 pm yesterday.

Saw that ...frankly, hold one's breath and swallow getting thru this weekend. I'm sure there's those that care less for the inevitability of ensuing seasonal change... but I could not be more ready to shed this shit and get into green up ... Even if it's just field starter warmth with forsythia bud swelling and crocuses ... I'm done. I don't want to think about cold season for 7 months

This whole thing looks almost specious to me frankly. I may not have the best handle on this, admittedly ... But, this has been either leaning, or just 'acting like it wants to' lean more stretched/W-E orientation. The GFS merely doesn't want to give up? might be that - Euro comes a little more E ... There'll be a wave on the boundary... I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up weaker as we close in.

Yeah the idea was going to be the deep pressure well, ...descending as it arrives, then when it leaves, it's pure acceleration - Not sure that even comes into play if the boundary ends up more e anyway

The wind won't be quite as bad if the boundary gets east and the low tracks up it. If the low tracks straight overhead, that's when you get a huge restoring blast.

ya .. mentioned it a coupled days ago. excessive PG couple/isollabaric blah blah blah

... wee bit of consternation that the compromised solution happens to be spelled like, G -G -E -M

Tell me this isn't spring in New England ... Yesterday, we struggled to 32 and wound up with 4" of snow through the evening. 24 hours later, it's not noon, over that snow pack, and under full sun most home sites tied into Wunder's network within a couple clicks of my location here in Ayer are knocking on the door of 50! No wind either... the feel becomes rather "nape balm" .. A day and a half later we we could have rain and wind ending as a PL/aggregate cake - even if only 1.5" of it...dramatic plunge immediately.

4”

I like the Euro's plan, personally... Season flips D6 ? I'll take it! Sunday bites balls with 35 mph gusts lingering under deep anomalies at 850 mb... figure mid 20s ( impressive cold for the date). But it's shorter duration. Wind relaxes ... yeah, it stays chilly Monday... but that's it. +15C recovery in 24 hours heading into Tuesday morning, with low ceiling RH values and WSW winds ...talking high 60 under pearl blue sun sear. That's how you masseuse the napes. There is a more seasonal cool shot D7 ... but the ensemble mean from all three, GEF/GEP/EPS ... have warm 850 mb anomalies from D6 into noise on their respective runs. It looks like the deep cold is cut off and relegating back to N Canada. Which isn't to say April won't bust balls ..just that it's a nice look for spring enthusiasts. ( caveat is always BD season )

Light to moderate burst of snow here in Ayer the last hour. 31 F ...maybe 1/2" so far

No longer 'early' march in reality. That distinction ended 2 days ago. Objectively, ... if one were looking at charts on say March 5, for a storm on March 12, that doesn't count as 'early' March either. You'd have to go back to the last week of February to logically invoke climate arguments related to early March. On March 9? anything going forward is definitely more Ides -related.

The ensuing sore butt contest will likely take place at some point or the other ... but if it is any consolation, the boat merely sunk at different rates. We up here in interior NE Mass may have been at the bow of the Titanic, ...your region at the stern, but we all went down with this ship. It was not a "good" winter anywhere. Falling short of seasonal snowfall averages, which barring a lucky bowling ball moving forward ... too many are sure to succeed, is < C grade. You have to at least make average to get a C - ... seldom do I engage in the "objective" grading game ( LOL ) but just for shits and giggles... That's sort of the way I view it. Average snow is minimum requirement for average grade. Leave all the passion out of the judging. This year...on the border of D and F ...

It’s called ‘recreational outrage’

Three flag 500 mb winds moving off the Del Marva with that thing this weekend. That's 160 mph synoptic scale wind max ... The cyclone on that cold front moves from DCA to CAR in < 12 hours ... It's be moving past at 75 to 80 mph. That's pretty amazing