Typhoon Tip

It is… We’ll see if it holds or if it fades like so many before it. It could actually fade half and just be nothing for us still verifying

The cool wave for the 3-9th has moderated down the stretch - sorry it has... That is the 2nd time this has happened since October 20 or so -... One can wonder if the latter November idea does the same thing - perfectly valid. At least for me and whatever I said... that much is worth the question based on seasonal trend - albeit early .. admittedly. If this were Vegas I might put money down as a pass-over bet between bigger games... Part of the problem is, that's been doing that in the models for years now. Euro... GFS ? doesn't matter. Any cold, hot, storm or phone # I get from a girl at a f'n pub, overwhelmingly verify something less than initially advertised. We'll see - we may end up cooler out whence but I'd be little surprised at this point if it is as deep as EPS variance. It'll probably be on the warmer inner curve of that mean if that last 7 years has any meaning

You know ..., and we have now cycled through two distinct intervals where/when the models ( and even telecon spreads ) signaled at minimum, a seasonal cool spell, ..but then, they moderated as the days clicked off and what we got was barely normal. I'm already getting a little gun-shy about cold and here we are all of November 3rd. I guess it's early ... there may be a bit of interpretation magnification. I mean, storms, cold or heat alike, all seem to come into extended ranges ominously...then correct toward manageable. An error aspect of guidance that's been happening for several years, frankly. But maybe in a month one of these cool waves will be deep enough to correct to 'still somewhat negative' instead of disappearing.

Did anyone else notice the 12z guidance' et al pretty much kissed the back of the donkey's balls ?

Yup ... My own muse: interestingly, the Euro scoring - it never was this 'iffy' ( for lack of better description) at D 4's. Last night's run as the sets that synoptic table along the SE coast and astride Atlantic, as the outlier already - My personal experience with the Euro over ... the last 20 years really ... is that it has two rather dependably timed, broadly painted amplitude strokes that it washed synoptic finishes - those being the relay from D5 to 6 ... then again, D 7 to 8. *Usually* on the short side of D 5's ... about 10 years ago, that model could not be beat. But it seems I have seen more occurrences in the recent .. 4 or 5 years of that guidance were D4 is come into question - based in no small part that its 'bust'/error frequency seems to have increased. It's still a very good model. I mean ...we are not taking it down from the top of the totem pole ( like this culture likes to meteorite impact fame at least excuse imagined ...and we judge the same way in here...) .. It'll be interesting this next run here in a little bit, to see if these other guidance sources start bumping that coastal closer to the coast. One thing we have to consider is that the governing mechanics for that would-be storm are coming off the Pacific along a rather flat trajectory - as is such, almost purely assimilated. Assimilation has come a long way and ...yeah, probably unlikely that it is the present reason for model-to-model variance. Still, that probability isn't 0. We have seen systems in the last 10 years be all but pancaked out to sea entirely, and then 48 hours out they came 'storming' back in the guidance, too - The only reason it matters is because there's this tide concern.

It's more than just upslope.. ( to the straw dude - ) The nose ( exit ) region of a 500 mb S/W is approaching from southern Ontario. This is causing some lower level convergence extending along/over the St L Seaway at the surface. Along and in front of this axis, west flow flow through lingering continental moisture supply ( delayed growth/soils ) but most likely also modest thete-e flux off Huron, Erie and Ontario probably factor. Topographic-forced accent as those west trajectories arrive then is combining with some scaled lift potential from the above mechanics, with a modest difluence with the approach of that jet etc.. So you get a bit of synergistic feed-back there... too, sure. There's meso-beta scaled baroclinic leaf passing into the region as illuminated by IR, with cooling/cold cloud tops - The whole of it has enough synoptic support ... I'd argue this is your first synoptic event of the season - however limited to just aesthetics it may be. I think it should be noted, frankly.

33 frost #2

GEFs not opposed to the notion ~ Nov 15/17 breakthrough. Though it appears to be more in the emergence phase/showing up in that cluster ... Usually when this happens, the signal matures, or turns out faux - but having cross- source support is obviously not a bad omen either. The operational GFS is really doing it's typical grind act on the warm up, too ...tending to pancake it S of 40 N and aiming Pac waves like torpedoes along NP - southeast Canadian exit, which tends to cut boundaries south... But its main change is clearly nearing the end of the extended. Long haul

all fixed - sorry if anyone tried to pm/txt ...

Ah good call - Yeah I don't actually check in with that inbox too frequently ... scratch that. Ever. I mean, nothing against it. Anyway, the top of the interface says, "Used 106% messenger storage" - just a hunch, but that particular message and the the solid block bar with no remaining space might just be a clue there, huh - By the way, ... ooph, when I was just cursory going down the list just now there are several colloquy from James Nichols regarding writing - I was taking it off line and giving him a hand with aspects...etc. Not sure if those advises helped him or not, but anyway... that's weird - I had forgotten those were there. f

wait, did you actually send a test message ? I didn't receive one, just sayn'

ah, ...I don't know? Oh maybe ... a long while ago there was an upgrade of the software - it's a Brian / 'Stormtracker' thing ... Anyway, I and few others started getting text/email notification bombs. They were looking into it ... I dunno - just spit ballin' but maybe they just turned off PMs for awhile. Other than that - no idea

The rapacity of human nature is primal and it still lurks in us at all times. It pervades our everything and what we do in our everyday; suppressed as it may be during say, Sunday congregates, or be it out in the wellness intents and purposes of civility-meccas. We are still just a vastly more sophisticated model; like, the Lion pride in this regard. Both Lion prides, as well as human have order intelligentsia, manifest as organization into complex, cooperative social machinery. Social -oriented species: it is an evolutionary adaptation that provides greater success probability, 'teamwork' toward a common goal increases survival prospects for the whole group. However, upon the realization of the goal, ... that's when things get complicated. The spirit of cooperation tends to break down after fact - On a planet with one species that has innovated its way to 7 1/2 billion populate density - ...I think the "fact" that is after, is winnable, ( albeit not won yet - not by choice ). We can let the foot off the throttle! Rapacity as a primal drive is a survival instinct that doesn't turn off as such. It's going to tug at people's intents and purposes, such that it pervades everything Humanity does et al. Proof? It is why we have provisionally allowed population to explode to 7.5 orders of magnitude, yet and while poverty still exists. Sorry, we don't really believe in equality. We don't. We recognize the idealization and value therein; we are not here to practice it. We are not intelligent enough to stop ourselves from allowing 1% from owning 99% the wealth. That is the Lion metaphor, that "flat headed" resolve after the kill, around the carrion... fighting one another for a position at the head of the blood lust table. Reenters or perhaps "releases," the seeded primal urges, reorganizing motivations into 'self,' and the growing ulterior motivations manifest as the snark above that I abused your post with -LOL. But they were always there, held at bay, while the cooperation's machinery was running. The squabbles or fights at the carrion of the Lion pride? That is the credit grabs, ... the more than one's shares ... to 'moral flexibility' and rationalizations, to crimes. That is what ultimately leads to 'money talks' - it's not money. It's primal. These motivated-out-of-insatiable-greed examples ... there is co-drive to procure "meat" at the expense of other's mouthfuls, once there is a sense of certitude of provisional source.

I see what's going on

Actually that was poorly written on my part - I didn't mean to question ORH's number and reset it to 5th. I just meant averaging all those numbers, if to get a rough sense for a "regional departure" - sloppy integral heh I'm surprised we put modest positive nocturnal in the books overnight, this last night ... Considering synoptic layout, there's a front escaping across the NW Atlantic, and a sprawling high - albeit of modest mass - arming in behind it over our region of the continent. When one has the time of year in mind, that might lend at a glance like its a 28er overnight with ease. 39 ... which isn't warm exactly no. But it really felt and even smelled like the 2nd frost - for this neck of the woods - was imminent last evening. Yet, temps apparently rose overnight though; I'm trying to figure out why - because I clearly have a rich and rewarding life ...

Wasn't expecting 32 per se for last night, but I was rather surprised we did not do the 34 F type frost here this morning. Really had the feel for that going in. Looking around at the various sites tied into Wunder up my way. Most graphs indicate a stall and then a rising temperature commenced around 1am. It's hard to determine what the impetus was for that behavior.

Yeah... Boston seems outlying. That's an interesting ORH there at 9th - almost seems outlying too - hm.. I don't know, the mean is 4.75 ..so call it 5th in the spread. I'm thinking we average to decimals under for the next 4 days but it's getting harder to ignore that warmup look/ ..faux Indian Summer - seems to be growing in prominence in the operational. We may see some of the above correct higher in rank, ...before the last 10 days of the month destroy contention - LOL

The condensed sentence for all that rhetoric is that these oddities could be signs of climate change ( could be - not certainty ), but society seems too distracted by perception of other urgency to take much of any notice of them. ... I will anecdotally add: ... My sister moved to Virginia Beach in 1995. They bought nice ranch in a neighborhood off Rt 58 as it cuts through toward the Beach/vacation alley ... but that's not important. She's in a partially wooded neighborhood, about like you'd see out in Sudbury or West Boyleston, with a combination of Oaks, Maples but also a smattering of borderline cold tolerant species that don't grow this far N mixed in. There are hybridized palms down at shore points. I've been there for several autumn visits over the years, mainly in November. What we have now reminds me exactly of what it's usually like rollin' into town on that Monday or Tuesday before Turkey Day that week. Wind blows, and brown broad oak leafs drift by, while neighbors are raking and putting leaf in municiple plastic leaf garbage bags - like wtf is that, anyway. Leafs in bags? They have a special truck that comes and picks up them up, too - The even longer of the former rhetoric was going to be that we, this year, look almost identical to what my other sister describes about the state of nature down where she lives, in southern NJ. She said our foliage looks exactly like there, right now - we happened to be discussing the 'lateness' of the leaf fall Saturday at relative's shindig

Do you know what the other's are ranked - just curious ?

Mine's slowed ... but the green quality of the lawn overall is not anything like is typical for this time of year - anecdotally per my own experience having lived proximal to the 40th parallel between Militia-gan and Massivetwoshits. It looks like Italian low call dressing with a side of pita bread quality out there. I don't know if that is warmth preceding, or wet, or some of both - probably both. You didn't ask me but I think we need a couple three back to back to back nights of 26 and highs staying in the 40s with cold strata splashing ample shade during afternoons, and that'll really shut shit down. Basically, a rarefied lower than normal 4 days ... without having it be because it is merely raining. I mean, really actually f'ing knuckles chilly.

OH, sorry bro - deleted -

If this were a Sci Fi arc for a climate dystopian novel, this last three ... five years of aberrant foliage coloration behavior could have been a canary in the proverbial coal mine, perhaps a foreshadow in an early chapter. The discussion kept brief, a metaphor in its self for a readership, too readily enraptured by a world overshadowed by predatory birds and thus impatient. How can anyone be bothered with any presumed, mere curious observational oddities - like smeared color seasons. Means nothing, right? - if there is any bandwidth to see them at all. We've all experienced these weirdness of autumn's over the last decade in particular, though; those of us ... you know, 'dialed in'. Something's just seemed off, year to year, with the trees. And if those were but subtle chirps, this year is more like the screech. Meandering muse: We all know how time and life, as the adage goes, go by in the blink of an eye. Our ability bear awareness of either time, or the integration of it called life, slip through our grasps, almost in tandem with our of weakening grips as we get ever older, too ( personally ...I think that is a remarkable adaptation by evolution, because as sentience became so acute in our species, the needful ability to let go of a piece of shit life would become absolutely necessary, in order to ensure lives still live long enough to be wiser elders of tribes..etc) But this last 20 years? ...particularly 10, transcends even that normalcy. It has become extreme, because the world has become such a vastly different distractive force. One wonders if it really transcends what it was like for our parents, or our parent's parent's. For throughout the gestation of their lives, they were not so immersed in a mise en science of intersecting urgencies as though caught up in a Borne Trilogy fight scene happening all the damn time, like we are now - metaphorically speaking... They never had time stolen from them, quite like we do. Don't wanna get into a generational penis length dispute over the nobility of triumph - you didn't have the Internet bringing the aromatic odor of humanity's skid marked laundry upon you face so fast that you cannot even process the smells. You didn't. Stop. And while the din of all carries on ... the last 20 years of silent signals repeatedly began to chirp, only audible to those dialed-in to change. Maybe it was that particular tree over there; it always changed at the same time, the color scheme flushing over in the same way, dependable.. "Wasn't it earlier last year?" We don't tend to write down dates of peaks - few really do that; certainly not since 2020! But then there's the colorization, too. "Huh. I don't remember that being yellow -that weird. Hm" Not a moment too soon, forgotten. Maybe the next year, it came back, but was duller, while the entire glade that's down the street, it's late and altered. Presently, trees and foliage et al linger into November, some nearly 70 .. 80% or 90% in leaf. Unhealthy leaf. Some are fall without having changed color very much all, falling in an amalgam of brown and ailing green - that is definitely different to prior years. Basically, the established multi-generational experiences in timing and color distributions, began to vary ... at first insidiously years ago, now suddenly this year so coherently? Is it a sign that a threshold was being crossed?

Speaking of the Euro... D10 from 00z c/o Pivotal Weather It's a little interesting ( if not unsettling ) when the 850 mb, stereographic layout of the northern Hemisphere is this off-balanced/biased. There is no question that the weight or the warm tones, is more so than the cool tones. And, it seems evenly distributed, too... It's not like all the warmth is on one side, the cooler regions...the other.

that's riiight. The model is that old - 1979 ... other words, always -

RIP Jerry Remy