Typhoon Tip

It doesn't have to be anecdotal either ... We technically were 'supposed' to have entered a multi-decadal -AO osccillatory mode ( meaning that mode is favored ), which happens along a similar well-correlated solar oscillation. It was tipping into the early 2000s and should be falling though 2025 I believe - The negative solar phase/-AO is the historical inference. The accelerated CC/GW is an introduction to that whole thematic arc that has unknown plot elements - that said... that doesn't preclude or abase the fact that going back 300 years worth of re-analysis demos there is an apparent -solar/-AO --> +solar/+AO movement of those curves. And the attribution science appears to link through UV rad flux in stratospheric Ozone... +solar breaks down Ozone, and that limits the chemistry for absorbing planetary warm advection at high lat/altitudes... where by dumping warmth in causes the SW to ignite.d Contrasting ... -solar and weaker UV input leaves Ozone population and Ozone thermal conductivity than absorbs incoming planetary wave decay and away she goes.

Counter intuitive perhaps ... but what we want is a raging +AO It's a warm index mode for mid latitudes, but that's by virtue of the fact that the westerlies are contracted polarward around the hemisphere during +AO phase. This 'bottles' up the cold and allows it promote its self - more so in the autumn and winter of course. But, the sun slope over the N pole being what it is... I am wondering if there is any solar max ( May 8 to to Aug 8 ... plus seasonal time-lag) +AO vs -AO correlation efforts made wrt to cryosphere. IF so, per relative anomaly. I know in winter, +AO --> -AO is how to unload the cold. In other words, the former builds it up... the latter supplies the conveyors during release. It is easier to visualize +AO cold production when above 77 deg latitude it is virtually nocturnal for 3 -6 mo's, than it is to do so when that same region is in virtual day the other times.

Hey Don - if ur around Do you by any chance have the historic PNA values - the notably anomalous periods in history ? I'm curious where the present CPC GEFs may rank for early August:

Something I've noticed lately ... past 10 days or so. Warm day scenarios seem to all be smoke plagued. Cool ones are clear(er). It's probably claiming some of our diurnal max potential? I am not completely sophisticated with smoke-aerosols and their effective thermodynamic micro-physical feed-backs, no - lol. But it seems intuitive that adding material to the atmosphere that has a separate and distinct absorption capacitance ... eventual long-wave radiation aspect to it may have some impact on heating potential. I almost imagine it keep nights slightly elevated, ...similar to 'cloud capping' preventing radiational heating. Or maybe the smoke itself re-radiates long wave rad back to the system. I dunno -...it's not like water vapor physics. That much we know.

For those interested ... we can see it pretty clearly on present sat: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Which is why a cold COVID civil war is brewing ... It'll heat up at times and won't be so cold. It won't tear civility apart - at least we don't think. But it will begin manifesting as the usual mall melee ... grocery store parking lot rumbles (hopefully some will take place over a church parking lot), or the occasional shooter using some twisted form of self-appointed COVID-cop complex triggered to rage, as an means to do what they really want which is just the violence lust ... It's inevitable that Humanity still thinks they can stop a force that's been prevalent and unconquerable to this world for 3 billion years... with masks. Holy fu! Quantum Tunneling is discovered to occur in molecular diffusion and chaos emergence in DNA chemistry recently as eerily instrumental in the origin of cancer ... 800 thousand years of primate evolution ...from slumped Proto Hominid, to upright aware moon-walkers, and the countless billions that have lived and died by proxy of disease vicissitudes along the journey ..gurgling through bile and blood for death gasps before their eyes drew vacant. Just mask - Digression 1: Society's replacing humility and reserved calculated approach, with faux conception of control will attempt to stop the pandemic with roll-backs on policy. Mask, hand sanitizing this, showing up in bedrooms as coital police to stop tongue pleasing wives. And none of it can ultimately work. Arrogance and conceit, or is it instinct? Digression 2: Believing in our significance, prominence to the extent that we should not have to abide the natural forces that gave us existence - it seems that's really the most consistent aspect about Humanity since that fateful day some million years ago whence the theorized Super Nova's Cosmic Ray burst upon the Earth, mutated are ancestral root's 'brain-gene.' Arthur C. Clarke may not have been that far off for his fictional view, when/where the benefiting genius ape first picked up the burning branch and realized he could cook meat ... Ever since that moment, this war we wage against the nature that put us here has raged. The ultimate f-u dad - or probably mom is more apropos. Digression 3: The universe is just an analog engine, disguising as metaphor. We see repeating patterns everywhere - it's just reprising fractals with slightly variant this or that as though it wants to confuse and befuddle the observer from realizing that 'the agency' really is not very creative. It is in fact more like ... re-imagining the same play, over and over again, just staged with different colors and set designs. The comparison of the borderline recalcitrant teenager informing authority in irreverence what they can go do with their advise: we are that adolescent species ( which face it... we are not adult - not even f'n close!). Humanity is in constant conflict to disconnect themselves from our dependency on the parental nature - that is an example of the great reprising Cosmos. It's everywhere. If you look you will begin to sense and see the repeating patterns. filling the ad infinitum's 90 billion light years of reality in all direction, with mere repeating coincidences in disguise? 'should' spark suspicion that we are being played by something. LOL Be that as it may ...and having succeeded at giving the reader a nascent migraine ( which was really all I wanted ) masks will only deteriorate the health of the individuals wearing them. I have a feeling natural will win this argument - the melees and altercations and this and that in the general gestalt theme, that is in fact that nature asserting its proxy. And the comedy of conceit's folly is that we only think those impulse ... repulse reactions are by choice.

Anti vaccine sentiment originated long before a conservative vs liberal doctrine could claim ownership … mid last century just sayn’ It may have been adopted by so-called conservatism lately but frankly … anti vaccine got a surge in popularity [really] as an organized platform-focus for a growing general antipathy toward big pharma … a fervor found more so in liberal ideology during and since the 1990s. It’s become a moving goalposts whenever it may fit a special interest’s narrative - Trump happened to not endorse it … now that particular sub-genera of republicanism is suddenly appalled by vaccine.

I thought some of their problem might’ve been having guys out on C19 protocols

I also suggest the overall trough magnitude will probably be 20 or so % less in areal scale compared to the Euro … and not as deep as the GFS over the polar side of the westerly

Course ... could all just be a matter of time the other shoe falls and the Sox have been cheating - Seems like cheating either has always happened for decades in all sports and now...with surveillance et al making it easier to detect. Or there is a complete and utter melt-down of ethics in professional sports. I wonder which -

I left a month's worth of innings ago when it was 3-0 Yankers ... and came back from my bike ride non-plussed at how precisely to the quanta of time that win musta manifest at point of click-tv-off. Shit it was getting late innings I though. haha. Good shit lord what kind of bad luck musta befell that Yanks. Which, frankly, I suffered those bloop singles yesterday that really was more like fractal luck... oh, and lest we forget the one bloop that would have tied it for the Red Sox but ooooh no - not when it went our way, huh. So, pay back's a bitch. Actually, now that I see the recap, ...looks like the same thing happened to them today, that happened to us yesterday. I thought Cora was too quick to pull Eovaldi... The bull-pens in both cases immediately imploded - but of the two, the Red Sox O was more convincing. They didn't have to bloop poop luck out their butts to steal a win, they sprayed bullets over the field.

I don't know exactly who we are speaking about, nor want to impugn/be involved in any finger pointing but ... yeah - I don't think there is an electrical pulse dog collar zapping anyone if they dare open a different web interface and doing something else ? is there -

Well...for a rather obvious reason, the COVID issue is not over. Not even calculably imaginatively can one begin to think so if their 'take' on current affairs ( and probably any ability for prognostic sensibility ) has enough merit to be heard. The ramifications on society ... many of which haven't been realized, are coming. Now, maybe those will be negligible. But we don't know until we know. Hate to say stupid common function of speech like that, but obviousness and the court of meme-opinion in the Internet era, too oft part company when the mojo narrative at hand doesn't fit reality. Fact of the matter is, we may be 'bored' with the COVID topic, but it still very much a massive and major issue in civilization right now. That's proooobably the impetus behind why it keeps coming up -

It's not very statistically significant, no - And sensibly ... it depends on the observer. 89.6/72 just takes a bit longer to get tolerances stressed. But, who knows how/why 90 was chosen as a "heat wave" demarcating rule and not 91 ... 93 ..etc. Probably? Just because humans like order in nature and try to assert boundaries and rules on everything. Base 10 numerology system, 90 it is LOL. Not sure if there really is any physicality behind the 90, sarcasm aside. Personally, 82/65 starts the patience-clock. It just has a longer count down than 90/70, which is longer than 100 over 74 ...etc.. It's silly when we think of 90 "meaning" anything when we consider the reality of the "tolerance spectrum" - unless there is some particular physical need to label that number, it seems an arbitrary setting. I just also like the deviant inconvenience of fact being plunked into the general internet-mojo memes of the day sometimes too. Lol. Bubble bursting. Usually, those get ignored.

this is kind of an unusual total baroclinic passage. There's a cold frontal ...albeit weak up there in NY just behind a quasi warm sector wedge - which is really over-zealously analyzed by WPC.. whatever - it looks more like an occlusion pinching... Be that as it may, the whole thing either moves through and off the coast, or dissipates into the same aspect ...leaving the region hotter and more DP rich behind the CF. This is like in winter, when all the cold air is ahead of the cyclone, and when the storm is over and the sun comes out sores to 45 and snow all melts. Ha!

These kind of days are annoying. We've had so many of them this warm season, too, I've lost track. It's when the satellite always looks like the cloud swath is about to whisk right away, but you look back at it and it hasn't moved despite moving at 40 kts. wtf - can't even see the back building edge if there is one. It's just that nightmare where your running but the hall stretches. I mean, the clearing has been moving ESE out of upstate NY all morning without actually gaining any ESE -

Low probability for low impact heat wave, tomorrow Tue and Wed 89.6 F variety. Low probability because cloud and/or smoke contamination mean everything when it's a 'rounding' deal like that.

Tomorrow has an interesting elevate instability look

Nice ... high temperatures were dead balls normal.

One of my closer college buddies … so years gone by. Know his family pretty well. Dad died 10 days ago after a short battle with as yet unknown. Wasn’t the C word. First parent of my immediate generation and spheres of friends is sobering.

It could be that the hitters just figured him out. heh doesn’t have to be he's tired although I can’t imagine he’s exactly spry either

Anyway when you’re throwing 97 to 100 mile an hour heaters even Nick the ball is going to end up on the moon

Yeah me too wtf

You must be watching the standard definition because I’m on a little bit of a lag there ha ha

Man this is just like last night that like exact sequence happened last night same umpire too