Typhoon Tip

All due sympathies from a voice of experience... I'd always been tip-top. I didn't know what I was in for when that fateful pop sounded off during a pick-up game of b-ball. The sensation was as though someone had slapped that back of my leg, just beneath the calf muscle. As I began the turning motion to ask the defender, "What the fu -" I stammered when instead, no one was there. And the turning movement revealed that my right foot was pretty much off-line for all weight bearing. I was soon looking at the ceiling. As I limped to the bleachers and sat looking at the back of my lower leg, an inward notch was visible about 2 inches above the heal. I still had no clue what this was. The thing is...it didn't really hurt. The initial pulsed slap-pop sound sent a jolt up my leg, but that was it. I hadn't even been to a doctor for a physical in like 15 years. I was 34 years old at the time. No complaints. Pow! It was really audible too. Someone near by, "what the hell was that?" I went to the emergency room, and waited for two hours to be seen and ultimately gave up. I wasn't in pain. I just had lost the use of my foot - disconcerting, but no pain. I limped around daily life for three days... still not knowing what was happening or connecting dots. But then I was in the shower and noticed this disturbing black-purple hematoma had pooled at the bottom of my foot. It was like one of those moments when your an idiot kid, and the horn and screech saved your life? You turned white with with fear. It was a turn white moment. It was that gnarly and scary looking. "Okay, time to call this one in -" At work that morning I called my IP; I need to find out where to go for doctor visits. I mean, part of the tip top down side is that you don't know these things. After describing, they had me call an orthopedic, "North Shore -" I think it was called. Described it to the nurse and she was like, "You've been walking on that all week?! you need to get in here ASAP." It turned out, the Achilles Tendon explosively ruptured, ...so clean and violently, that it didn't recoil up into the calf muscle like is typically what happens. When that does that, the pain is typically so severe the patient almost passes out. This just when boom, and was left dangling inside the sheathing, with mop end shreds according to the surgeon. I didn't know what to expect from the deeply invasive reconnection surgury that took place two days later. Like I said, ...I was a new to this sort of thing. They inserted an electrode into the back of the knee in prep, delivering a pulse of electricity directly to the peroneal nerve, that left everything below the knee essentially invisible. In post op, I was not told what would happen when the nerve came back to life - I blame medicine for that. No counseling ... time of expecting this. What to do to prepare for that. They just gave me a vile of this stuff called "Oxycodone," the back side of which had written in big capital bold red letters, "IF YOU TAKE MORE THAN 2 TABLETS IN 24 HOURS, YOU WILL CAUSE KIDNEY DAMAGE" ... Shit, I'd always been an Advil junky for Migraine headaches ( Aura type too...) Nothing hurts worse than those ... I'll just double up on Advil. Wrong. That pain became so severe, that was when I almost passed out - on several occasions. I'd never experience anything like that. I had a massive gash, oozing plasmas, held together with staples, essentially no prophylactic management tools having been applied. My sister found doing a check in ... pretty much in the fetal position in a state of delirious apoplexy... She called North Shore Ortho and got the doctor's pager and after tracking the mother-f'er down and telling him the situation, and the big, bold red writing about kidney damage, he was like "Are you kidding! For get that... Give him 5 tablet of that immediately" I mean I didn't know... The funny thing about Oxy's - for me - was that it didn't really stop it from hurting. It only made you not care that it hurt. Weird state of mind. Finally after 3 -5 days, the orb of pain that made up my foot had finally fade to just being a painful foot... at which point, Advils like chicklet candies began to work.

I thought there must be some sort of connection there …. https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/14/former-us-ambassador-marie-yovanovitch-trump-emboldened-putin-ukraine-newday-berman-vpx.cnn I mean who didn’t, right - May be proven less than significantly instrumental but the idea had crossed the mind …

Weekend is the first example of the bowling ball susceptibility … really looks pretty classic. The end month probably deconstructs away from planetary wave toward a pinch low.

I'm hesitating to do my taxes ... certain econ programs were suspended during the 2021, and I was relying - ill advisingly so probably ... - on interest paid to save me from owing... Not sure what the arithmetic will be now.

huh? I was commenting on Phin's post, which was angled at an entirely different someone else/context. No offense, but I'm not a part of your conversation there -

There are those that seem interested in NOT allowing light to rise over the societal state of dystopian darkness of that thing. For those lusting to maintain over-arching senses of arresting doom over theirs and everyone else's world, they should really be far more afraid of a limited scale, if not outright full on nuclear holocaust at this point. That's far more likely than anything that pandemic shit's going to do moving forward. The latter's followed the biological arc, and digging up content that fits one's narrative and perpetuates their own agenda ...unfortunately does not change the reality that it's distancing into history.

I mused about this last week ..yeah. I called it the 'spring flashing' that happens more less observable every year... Sometimes it's like, 'oh that's weird - what just happened' when looking at the mid...extended range charts. Other times, it's seductively slow and you just end up there over a 10 day period. Usually occurs sometime in March. This last weekend's system seemed to coil up the pattern its self, and cold, and escaped away with it... leaving weaker gradients and slowing velocities in across the broader expanse of the continent. That's not to say it won't snow again. Concomitant with this type of patterning ...we enter the cold pocket/cut-off low risk, as Will and I have mentioned ( also ). There's evidence that we just flashed and there's also evidence that we'll have to watch for 'bowling season' type events over the next couple of weeks.

Thanks … ah I’ve always been a winter enthusiast. I’ve also been equally enthused with summer. Years ago I posted quite frequently …major thread starts going back to Eastern, but that may predate you’re involved - I don’t know There are weather types that sensibly I do not care for, indigenous to either seasons. It’s not unusual or unique to say … not a fan of soaring HIs of summer for example. Equally, disenchanted by 32.decimal rains of winter. The reason I posted more is because I happened to be between gigs and had the bandwidth. I’d say it was a decent enough performance for total deterministic/risk assessing at longer leads - though I get it that actual snow is the primary purpose for this particular engagement (lol). Unfortunately … day 6-8 leads is a bit over the horizon for discrete event profiling. The one event that did offer some coherence a bit further out was the blizzard … but wouldn’t we guess, had to snow the least amount relative to blizzard criteria. Some years are just minted for mediocrity

Tomorrow's still a tricky day for diurnal. On one hand ... we've entered the time of year when/where a west wind under a full sun is going to bust most machine -based numbers cold, however much or little. On the other hand, tho day starts with a cold 925 to 850 mb and modest negative anomalies. But it's not just those competing aspects.... The day actually ends warmer than normal in that level. 00z Tomorrow night, .... hm... Flips the script, within the daylight hours. It's like it'll dawn 13 to 19 around the typical dungeon locales, and be mid 50s by 4pm ...that's some spectacular diurnal deltas if that happens - but that could be good for a nape stroll around 5 pm with the sun now setting later ( thus higher) and the wind light.

Ah yes... That's really spring in New England, what it is all about. It's about tip-toeing through a landmine field of reasons to offset the inevitability of the ensuing "warm" season. These recent/overnight charts continue to look that way. To which the proverbial 'bowling season' is a part.. so, perhaps some entertainment too. But those are actually rare. We're far more likely to step on mines ... in the form of BDs, or like that wave moving off the MA...etc. In between, we get a warm car seats, and protected deck nape out of the wind if the sun's shining. That's how I always remember springs around this region of the country. Presently in the guidance it would seem we're heading into period that fits more with that lore. I think the propensity of snow ( or atmosphere's supporting that ) in May has been extraordinary, because it is has happened with different leading indicators. And counter-intuitive as it may seem, the 80s we saw in Febs and Mar might be related to the same disruptive forcing.

Agreed ... For the general reader: Recent guidance has been consistent with this being "possibly" the last "pattern cold" - which is weird sounding... But what I mean is, the tundra delivery circuitry gets cut off. Yesterday's system if symbolically, it is as though it packed up winter, hugged good-bye today, and we watch it drive away. What we are left with in the wake is more seasonal anomalies. I'm a little leery of great expectations for this week's sensible weather, though. Particularly Thurs into Friday. There's a cold and unwhite middling/weak mid Atlantic low that appears to have no other functional purpose for existing other than solely to f-up the outlook during that time. I'm not sure it's fake. It would atone to a 30 F afternoon temperature correction from the Del Marva to eastern NE. If it suppresses south, no problem - we'll be under equinox sun. And with no other appreciable gradient/wind, 925 to 850 mb well above 0 C, we'd be really soaking in "nape balm" But turn the flow around to anything sniffing E component and forget it. You're completely f'ed.

I remember that one vividly for that reason alone. It was plow-able snow out in Acton where I lived at the time. But we've had that in Aprils. That in itself is not that usual. It was the fact that as I pulled into a small row of single story stores, plumes of shattered crystals were lowering visibility around my car to nil as the miasma curled off the eaves of the flat building tops, ... at 1:15 in the afternoon. Mind you, that is ~ 1 month before entry into the solar maximum time of year ( ~ May 8 through August 8, lat dependent) I sat there in internal monologue, "This is insane" That must have been a unique combination of actual cold availability, along with unusual cloud depth/density lowering sqr wattage. Something special, because I have seen equinox, 31 F dawn snow end up glop rain with steam coming off streets by that time in the afternoon. And there we were three weeks later with horrible road conditions

Meh... their numbers are falling -

Yeah... it almost seems like this part of this whole mess is windexy

Oh that's interesting... like the comet tail

I know I've already mentioned but will again for the general audience. - This whole ordeal was very ANA like by behavior. The models depicted cyclone tracking along the boundary ...so it was more than that. But, it still was toting along some characteristics of the ANA...with undercutting RH deformation 850 mb flow with S wind over top. The models always think that's wringing out big moisture, but like you say ( and is part of why ANA's are typically over billed - ), that happens. It ends up being flurries under undulating virga plumes. The cold front was deep and powerful anyway? It seems to have a deep pressure trough - I suspect the low riding along that sort of over marketed its strength. Nevertheless, we're going to have to recover from 982 to 985 mb pressures here over the next several hrs and the winds likely voice its opinion over roof tops.

My buddy down near NYC is telling me that the sfc is under performing relative to the radar - just sayn'

Hey, no argument from me yeah. I think I said this whole ordeal seemed over cooked to me the other day. I was never too keen on it so ...ah well. It is what it is.

Heh... some percentage of this event turned out to be ANA duping tho - It's more of a hybrid ANA/ cyclone development sort of smear, and the cold came in and the rad dried out - that aspect behavior is the eye color of the ANA trait

Interesting how this is flipping here... Seems to be transitioning right to medium aggregates/uniform... and skipping the golf ball phase but it may yet -

White rain and PLs now in Ayer... Just kicked in last 5 or 10 min... 39 ... Clouds abruptly began moving rapidly S so the front's likely slipped passed

it does look like the boundary is mid way through N CT ... not through HFD just yet - wonder how that matches up with guidance? it's kind of hard to find it by wind because we're draining anyway. But those that go west of the boundary have shed 2- 3F rather quickly when using the 'non official' Wunder sites -

How is that being assessed ....? just curious - Front is not through here, in Ayer Mass, but I also should be on the same front as you, given to it's orientation NNE-SSW through the area. So that's interesting. I have been 38 all morning. If it ticks colder aloft, we could easily be spring cotton ball aggregates here ...so it's probably going to be an interesting day for the transition nerds - hahah

I realize there's a coveted hope in needling monitoring of a hopeless situation... and I hope it works out for many of you - really, seriously... But I, for one, cannot wait until circa 2:34 PM Monday afternoon, when the temp is in process of a 30 point recovery that day, and skies will be primarily cloud free, and the wind may not be appreciably strong. Area MOS ( FIT/ASH/BED ..which is relevant triangulum for Ayer) is 55 in MET MOS. 51 in the MAV ... but, keeping in mind, we've entered the time of year when the machine numbers tend to error cool under clear skies and zippo CAA. Here's the aspect that makes that day an interesting challenge for forecasting high temperatures: snow on the ground; decoupling Sunday night. Of those two factors, the decoupling is the bigger. Sunday night, even a couple of inches of snow ( more west of course...) under the ensuing cold intrusion is probably going to decouple rather quickly. Places like Orange MA'll be 12 by dawn - probably high teens most places anyway. That's quite the deep well to begin. It's just that all the guidance have 850mb recovering to +2 C by late afternoon, collocating the Pike, but doing so with low mixing. That would suggest adiabatic processing from diurnal overturning. Not sure the adiabat gets the high... I think 925 is the BL depth, but that's +5 by 4pm, and the SA from that level supports 62-ish in the 2-meter T, so it's going to either be a huge MOS bust that day, or I'm missing something here heh... Oh, I know what it is! Anyone actually reading this far along this tedium...

I like both heat and A.C. tho heh. no but my interest in heat is the synoptic meteorology … actually being in it all comes down to DP really