Typhoon Tip

I frankly can't trust any operational model solution in present era - regardless of which origin ( or street cred/personal bias choice ) therefrom. Lower than the 'normal model error expectation,' by a goodly amount at that... Lol, the NAVGEM has about as much odds of nailing a D8'er look as any at this point. The problem is that the canvased pattern enveloping our side of the Hemisphere ( from N of Hawaii to S of Greenland ) is characterized by a low N-S, but high W-E amplitude type. That is a low performing arena at any time of the year; adding to that, this is not a typical model-performance merit season: Transitioning mid autumn. It is in fact demerit in nature. Heh ...but wait, it doesn't end there. On top of those compounding belly punches into the torso of determinism ... the models consummately bring anything and everything into the outer emergent ranges of their runs ( circa D8 + out to the ends...), over amplified compared to what ultimately verifies. This has been notable for years of operational vagaries. It's not a fixed value.. It's like I said yesterday: inspirational aspect --> less inspirational results. It's variable as to how much or little that is the case... But far less frequently does a small blip in pattern change, or small wave in the field on D11, end up writing passages in climate bibles. But going the other way, ...for whatever reason of complexity, that happens a lot more often. It doesn't help that the American -based telecon spread' mean features a weakly positive PNA that is sagging negative actually ... D10+, while the NAO is bouncing around positive for a week before half the members split (+)(-). That's sort of N/S by statistical convention in the matter - I realize the EPS may be more stolid with a 'somewhat' favorable look, but I don't believe this amplitude correction tendency is unique to American model types - which means in simple terms, it too may tone it down given time. In fact, as I've outlined so often in the past, the Euro DEFINITELY has a curved wash in it's D7s ... it's in the genetics of the Euro cluster, too. The upshot of uncertainty and N/S ... that doesn't have to mean "No Snow" Anytime after the World Series and Halloween are in the books, it is fair game N of the Del Marva. It's just a matter of return rate. N of the mid latitudes ( however ..) I am noticing that sub -10C expanses of 850 mb air are consistently showing up - despite variability as noted. That's not a bad table setting ...should the randomness of wave timing in space snag some ... There's a 'little critter' signals around 156 hours or so... go from there.

29 to 65 .. impressive diurnal spread

I was just being passively snarky about the 12z Euro run yesterday ... That D10 did not look like a mid month cool down pattern to me. But obviously, one run doesn't make a bun. The comment is really directed toward the straw man, as I spent time writing about it last week, and as usual .. more than a sentence gets auto-ignored. Heh. I didn't see anyone very interested in acknowledging, either way. So attempting to keep this brief uh 'er', the models ( regardless of which - ) for years now ( actually ...) have this propensity to over magnify everything that comes into the outer time range - then, spend ... cycle after cycle after cycle seemingly engineering petty reasons to tax the original look. What ends up verifying is ... at best 70 % of the original. It's just a personal observation of the model performance/..behavior. And it doesn't matter if it's heating or cooling anomaly patterns, and/or storms and whatever contained within them. Everything is awe-inspiring --> less awe-inspiring; it's presumptive correction vector for me at this point. I used the metaphor last year for this aspect ... it's like the moon first rising over the eastern horizon? I looks ginormous... but then as it ages upward into its zenith, it's a fraction of its original - it's like the models "magnify" everything that emerges into the D~12 range

That's the confidence rattler when surveying 'anecdotal climatology' Those accounts are based on visual memories, ... which are invariably going to be milled through at least some amount of ( personal bias + the imagination )/2. No human being can really store information on mental engrams, when all incoming information is molded by endearing nostalgia. LOL After the "fact" ... even in the best possible objective personal recollection source, that person lives for < 100 years. Usually not much more than 80. That's not an altogether very dense sample set. In a stable climate, you can have 20 or 30 year variance that faux suggested Dec's are bigger snowers... Followed by multi-decade spans that ( eventually...) normalize back to a 300-year mean ..etc. Anecdotal experience are inherently limited as all ... Muddling matters further ... the climate is not stable now.

And so the back off begins …

Oh yeah .. gonna be dark in 5 min

24 here this morning .. it’s kind of funny I was just talking couple weeks ago how rare it is to have that cold still air leaf fall … summarily 3 mornings back to back have dine that.

Looks like a fast moving oscillatory pattern to me... seasonal cold anomalies replaced by warm ones ever 2 days of periodicity through mid month - that's the illustration of the recent Euro oper. and GFS trends. I disagree that the GEFs should be 86'ed with some autopilot measure - to each his/her own.

That said, heh ... I'm from Michigan I guess since I've lived most of my life in New England I must've been cleansed .. exorcised. Still, I'd like to think that even if I am ultimately not deemed one of them, ...there are smart people there. I've joked in my past, admittedly. But, I did so in snark .. jest; cynical levity is fun, but is meant for droll- not to be taken more than such. The five universal laws of human stupidity? After I read that, I visualize the three types of individuals they outline, make a pyramid. The top piece are those of purer intelligentsia, and by geometric convention, are a smaller number compared to the whole. The boundary between that upper piece and the next tier, the "bandit" stupids, is a fade-through - there are those that share in moments of purity, but pretty readily fail compunction tests... ( this is all hilarious to me, btw). But once in the the pith of the middle's ... this is where you'll find the type of intelligence that is bogged down with motivations that are detrimental to society. They can be both toxic negative, and 'toxic positive' ( complex gray area). But more obviously, it is where lurks white-collar crime for example, or any in the relative Machinations we read about and scoff. Morality and ethics ... virtuosity are negotiable, usually in favor of a bias. These are obviously the most dangerous group ...Some 30% of all cardiac owners ( heh ). Remove their nefarium, they actually can join the upper tier, 'capable of not being idiots.' By and larger part of their nature, this ilk of population are compelled ... some with no awareness they are even assholes. Some that aware, but lack remorse. Its a matter of what day of the week and/or how egregious the stench. Usually, it's tolerable...which why Capitalism works - LOL. The rest, the bottom of the pyramid, is where the vaster population numbers resides. This is the "57%" majority. They are codependent upon the top two sectors ( really..) to keep society's gears lubed and running...etc. So the pyramid shape sort of coalesces out of the mental ether when thinking about it. Unlike Chimps and Dolphins, where intelligence is less varied from one individual to the next, humans can compose symphonies, and others cannot. Some can solve 4th order tensor equations in an 8-dimensional manifold-reality, while other's cannot. That's the thing with intelligence as a "species ownership" - they higher the order of the former, the more variance there is per capita. As brain sophistication gets more so ... it tends to differentiate into "talents" ...interesting. Hard to know if that is environmentally advantageous, or if it is just that the human biological brain is so sophisticated it becomes probablistically vulnerable to capacity variance. I also imagine a dark humorous animation, where since the ballast of idiocrasy is heavier on one side, that starts the whole thing spinning, and then perpendicular to that rotation, there is drill bit attached and it is of course pointing down [ enter drill whirring machine sound here], as it bores humanity to hell. I've referred to Michigan as "Militiagain" - due entirely to their earned resume. Texas and perhaps Utah come to mind as largely rural regions where extremists tend to find limited challenges in open spaces. Left to their own devises. It is not intended to 'shade' rural backgrounds. It's just that unfortunately, the art in literature, song and cinema re rural zeitgeist is essentially correct. Tough shit - if we don't like it, stop doing that. Stop communing fringe ideological "weapons research against any government for the sake of organized I hate authority," and you won't earn that unsavory distinction of being creepy. As a Michigan born citizen ... I am embarrassed at their tendency to engender Timothy McVeigh's. Or be it that 13-person plot to kidnap and do, who-the-hell-knows-what to Governor Whitmer. I mean, that's a lot of individuals bought into an absurdity, .. like an actual retinue. They have to be absconded away from reality by the same delusion, having [apparently] zero recognition of its ostentatious specter? it's really rather remarkable. There's an urban-dictionary entry ( which is like the word-waiting-room to be formally codified into the heritage versions...) called group psychosis. Quick copy-paste looks something like, "When the mentality of one member of a group causes a group to follow suit. The behavior shown is usually anti-social, brutal and mob-like." It may just be my imagination, but whenever I read or hear sentences like, "...FBI arrested 13 in conjunction with credible suspicion to commit capital crime" against a formal and representation of systemic structure ( to which an agent of high ranking government is symbolic more so than anything else to these half-wits ...) I pretty much just conclude it is group psychosis. In fact, Jan 6 was also a mob operating on a faux reality/delusion for that matter. I further posit that our society has schism problem, based on a separate posit: Telecommunication is a cultural, evolutionary force that has crossed a 'momentum threshold.' It is an influence that is modulating inside of generation time spans. In the last 20 years, ... I believe it is causal ( sociologically ) for the proliferation of all these cultural rest stops for the stimulation wary. Each one has it's own doctrine that then gets embolden as it picks up more and more off these lost Internet traveling loons, who by virtue of the previous model of man kind ( and benefit for mainstream), were separated from one another by the uncertain distance of the hills ..

Yeah.. .agreed, industrial scaled harvesting of heart-beat food sources, doesn't have a very flattering wrap sheet. What was always out-of-sight-out-of-mind, the world doesn't (or really can't may be apropos) intrinsically keep so under wraps any longer. Up throw mm 30 .. definitely say 20 years ago, the general population didn't know about what they were eating... Most importantly, how it got to dinner plate. Leaks about veal seem to start the meme engine of awareness, and chickens followed and ... using monkeys in labs.. All of it. Now? Virtually ever dimension of reality is disclosed(ing), and I really can't find packaging now that doesn't label, "humanely treated..." ... degree of truth, notwithstanding. To me, humane treatment is/was entirely the responsibility of the proverbial shepherd. Nothing more. If finding a vaccine for COVID-19 is say, 5 on the scale of 1 to 10, doing the former is 1.5... What can't be cleaned up? CO2 and CH4 - at least not without putting farms inside bio-domes, with 100% processing the air to reduce these greenhouse emissions so that what is inside the dome matches the back-ground Terran atmosphere, before out-gassing/exchanging air. Not pragmatic when there are technologies on the verge getting to the goal of dinner plates without such wild Sci Fi explorations. There are two distinctions. Humane treatment of animals is separate, and doesn't add or take away anthropomorphic GW - the 2nd of the two. It's kind of like Azomavian laws of robot conduct ... you know? the three? I was after a similar sort of rudimentary moral check-list for harvesting animals. So long as the factory harvesting did not violate this, "...Inside this definition ... also includes and must achieve, humane livestock conditions prior to abattoir,..." Personally, if "lab grown meat" is based on DNA biota, than it doesn't matter whether it came from a heart-beat or not - it's the same goddamn thing. ...Good luck explaining that to a society that is comprised of a disturbingly huge population of science deniers... but, if that can be overcome and it can be marketable and sustainable, and mass produced enough to feed the world, that's a big pie slice of the human industrial fart. Firstly ... can we change the name? Eating anything that is prefaced by "lab grown ..." is ewww. Conjures all kind of f'ed up disgusting horrors. Like, "It turns out ... cat shit is the best fertility medium for growing roast beef..." - kidding

Suspiciously as such ... the GEFs telecon spread backs away from the notion of cold spanning the last 10 days of the month. The present operational run is still attempting to suppress the main band/best identifiable axis of westerlies main jet, but it is hard to separate that from the model's native bias to buzz saw the tops off heights beyond it's mid ranges, no matter what time of the year or circumstance ... We'll see if the EPS begins to slowly collapse. It'd be nice to have a white Thanks Gig ... It's not a preference thing -

All these liberal high-roaders will lose their footing as moral supremacists, though. We can't have them poking their arm-pits and sniffing them for comfort, while rocking back and forth at the brink of apoplexy because they don't have that focus of elitist recreational outrage. What will they due without their gaslighting edge over everyone else? I'm kidding, ... sort of. But, I easily still imagine some ultra fringe purists, in some future realm where completely artificially engineered, grade AAA quality Tender Loin succulence is better than the real thing and a blow job, but still would not be ideally satisfying to their wanton ethical excoriation. Because, wait! - even though in such a futuristic realm, the consumption of artificial protein may not directly harm naturally or "organically" occurring life ( as well as other indirect positive feed-backs .. like carbon this, or Zoonotic epidemiology that .. whatever), craving and 'giving in' to the act of consuming those sources must still mean in "spirit," you are a blood lusty piece of shit jerk. My disenchantment of liberals is for that kind of liberalism. I mean obviously at a more fundamental and realistic perspective, the better vision for our species, is through a lens of social and economic relative equality. We know that has to happen within the simple mathematical framework that we cannot survive on a world that has been irretrievably toxified by the anus of Industry... It needs to stop there. It's either the greatest feat of arresting stupidity in the history of humanity, or, Darwinism at massive scales, but when 40 some odd percent of 7.5 billion attempting to rationalize away from accepting that simple premise in lieu of personal gain, ...well... that's all a much longer philosophical digression .. Presumptive ideological superiority over others, isn't that 'mathematical framework' - particularly when the motivation to do so is borne of idiocy masquerading as intelligentsia, whereupon further reflection - usually after one leaves the room - you see holes in their debate. I realize the following perspective may or may not be in sync with present company's, however: I have zero/none/nada/no problem with hunting for provisional sustenance. Inside this definition ... also includes and must achieve humane livestock conditions prior to abattoir - broad industrial herding [ enter huge philosophical dissertation here ] is just hunting done at grander scales ... I have an absolute/unforgivable/useless piece of shit human problem with hunting "for sport," or, procuring meat sources inhumanely/entitled demeanor. I don't have a problem with anyone that chooses to eat animal-based sources, provided the procurement satisfies the above two conditions; therefore, the arrival in technological history ( i.e., perhaps now ...) where human innovation creates provisional sustenance without violating those two basic tenets or principles, inherently moves us toward that goal/directive - yeah. As an afterthought ... purism and purists views are unrealistic outside of the conveniences bubble that protects them. Operating inside of Industrial civility's enabling machinery, is intrinsically in a state of hypocrisy, when those who uphold such ideological musings as morally superior, do so from a perch of well-nourished codependency. Pick up a shovel... Pick up a hoe. Toil eternally, with nothing more - because that's your only existence without that for which you clearly are unwittingly taking for granted.

Maybe we can will a cold pattern suggestion to actually not dampen closing in this time.

That GGEM solution would probably bring damaging wind at the end of that run.

Apparently there was snow in the air down to the road surface of rt 2 in nw Mass yesterday with CAA instability/oreogrphics

Actually ... it would take several weeks to know or 'look' like anything ...until FEMA or Military AW101 helos had a chance to penetrate the naturally occurring WMD "glacial blast radius" ... maybe to those outside that zone. being hyperbolic of course...

That is the beast of all cryo monsters. Imagine that now ... I mean it comes to be a trope, because we say that all the time with the "fragility" of civility's various dim-witted planning vs exposure and vulnerability profiles. Like ... Long Island drinking a lot of Ice Tea thinking they could put a trillion dollar of infrastructure and real estate out there, and NOT have a Category 4 freak 'cane express over... Or of course NOLA.... Or how about the Canary Island bifurcating geological tsunamis basically going all the way across the Florida Peninsula... zaggeratin but just makin the point. Anyway, 1921 was still an era threading the grid - it was not nearly as embedded and wholly relied upon as it is now... Not even the same f'n world man. So yeah, used turn of phrase or not, 3 to 4" of accretion pan-dimensional in scale would be a level 5 catastrophe - basically, complete failure.

wait a sec ... do you realize? that was 15 f'n years ago. FIF TEEN

This picture always reminds me of Mt Washington

I vote a new definition be employed hence forth: 'The Raymond Effect' Anyone that asks ... direct them to your post and prefix, "for example"

2008 ? Yeah, the aspect of that even that stood out to me was how the fringe townships like Acton and Littleton... Maynard ...basically between towns along/asride I-495 that were below the bigger accretion level, lost power for a day or two ...due - it turned out - to compensating grid drag effects. We started blue glow buzzing the night horizons all around us as transformers started domino-ing, shorting out from current reroutes - I thought that was fascinating. As it were, in the morning we had about 1/4" of accretion - interestingly ... - along just the tops of all tree canopies in town, but from mid tree heights to the ground was just damp with no ice. No ice on the car tops or windows, either. That's about as "marginal incarnate" as is imaginably can be demonstrate by an open natural setting.. weird. Never had seen a melt line literally 30 feet off the ground like that. Either way, ... 1/4" isn't enough typically to induce a whole town outage...and we were told that it was drag on the system from the drain.

Not to be overly fastidious ... but, I think it depends also on mass-field orientation. What I mean is, the trajectory angle of the overriding warm column (at its particular given temperature/DP mixing ratio) plays a factor in it's 'erosion' capacitance. A WSW override doesn't need 'as strong' a due N a-geo, to hold cold in. But a due S one, would time the cold retreat/moderation at the surface, inland, faster. Perhaps a key ratio can be derived, ..like, resulting in 1 in the arithmetic; 1.1 results in warm air winning sooner... .9 results in cold air overwhelming and going more pellet ptypes. Pseudo science to make the point - Sufficient influx of DP to offset latent heat of phase change, is in just the right proportion to erosion ( in and out in balance), is all it is needed, and matters less characterizing either side of the boundary as strong or weak, just don't clobber the other side and the icing is static

I mean solar factors. But so does ENSO... and lately, HC expansion theory. ... PDO/AMO ... bad or good luck. Pick. Personally, I'm a little less clear on the discrete difference between CME and UV, in the total concept of solar AO correlation/causality. Namely, I wonder actually if the two have the same modulating impact on the Ozone concentration within the upper altitudes of the AO domain. CME's are like clouds of high-energy charged particles ... traveling at Sci Fi dream velocities... But they are not UV (ultra violate ), which is an electromagnetic wave phenomenon ( photon type ). It just so happens that when magnetic entanglements burst over the solar disk, CME mass often coexists with a flash of UV.. The UV gets here in 8 minutes! The CME... up to 72 hours in some cases. Such that active sun-spot eras also are increased UV eras ... But I am not sure that either interacts/effects Ozone in the same way. I happen to know that UV is the appropriate wave length to disassociate 0zone ... I am not sure if these high-energy particulates also do the same, specifically - The impetus there: 0zone is very responsive to thermal absorption from planetary wave phenomenon decaying at very high altitudes - simply termed, it is where warm air advection at mid and upper troposphere, terminates and fade.. usually above 60 N, at very high altitudes. Those plumes interact within the PV at high altitudes, and if there happens to be a +anomaly Ozone concentration, that proficients in absorption "flashes" an onset of warm atmospheric mass ...that starts the whole thing. That mass then ( might ) propagate back downward (crucial behavior in the -AO forcing ), while spreading laterally in space. It usually takes a couple weeks to compete that downwelling... When it reaches the height of the tropopause ( usually around 200 mb, averaged all seasons at those latitudes), its downward momentum weakens the cyclonic physical manifold of PV... ( has to do with ambient stablizing/DVM). Vortex weakens to varying degrees. The ring westerlies around the pole begins to lose coherence, severs... and then alternating troughs and anticyclonic nodes formulate ... a.k.a., 'blocking' and that's the ball-game. +AO --> -AO So, if UV is destroying 0zone, that "cleanses" - for lack of better word - such that the normal dispersion of wave events doesn't "flash" warm events. This is why low solar activity in summer and autumn, tend to precede years with Sudden Stratospheric Warming events - but the key word there is 'tend'. The complexity in this whole relationship manifold is mind boggling. "how much" solar is detrimental to "how much" Ozone is present - perhaps event 'type' of Ozone - are moving amounts in time. That's probably break-point/threshold headaches in hell to uncouple those and figure out what those critical values of either, are. Plus, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation ( west vs east ) is also correlated to the SSW, apparently - makes one wonder if the QBO is indirectly, statistically significant wrt the solar, too. It seems it has to be. Ooph. But ... the forcing appears better explained in the other direction. Anyway, this summer and autumn the sun has decided to go ahead and start firing CME's at the Earth. I don't know what the longer termed UV numbers look like, but I suspect they are somewhat above normal because the two tend to coincide. Lastly, the onset of propagating SSWs doesn't dictate the AO's seasonality a given year. There are -AO and +AO winters, on whole, that may or may not have featured SSWs.

Well heh .. there is a giant gap filled with forces between "strongest solar sun spot year," and a "very good winter." The former does not necessitate that latter, either way -

Was it though ? I think the definition/interpretation has been through the 'human definition adaptation mill' - SO ... my contribution to the rumor canard is that it has to be 28 for three consecutive hours for a hard freeze. And a Freeze is < 32 but above that lower bound for 3 hours. And a headline-able frost doesn't necessarily have to freeze. I could swear I read this when I was like 11 ... but maybe the 'official' definitions have changed over the years. Or, what I read 387 years ago wasn't true to begin with.