Typhoon Tip

just curious ... do you run every day ?

The 00z Euro carried along a rendition of that thing ... but far less amplified. That range of time has been somewhat signaled for awhile in the GEF - based teleconnector numbers. It hasn't really presented in the operational GFS, if perhaps yet. One thing about the 00z suite, however, is that the EPS has a signal that, relative to an ensemble mean, is more significantly coherent than the operational run. It's sort of a 2nd derivative in that sense... Comparing the significance. Anyway the mean carries an eastern TV low off the MA and well formats it east of Cape Cod, spanning 36 hours, with an open negative tilt wave that is deepening while it passes through. It's nestled temporally in that same signal from the GEFs ...so is a bit of cross guidance ensemble support .. . There's a signal there. that's it. how much or little, it's emerging ... we'll see. Could turn out to be a big nothing with radiative forcing the hemisphere ...

Oh yeah I do ... I've waxed nostalgia over that historic heat, and it's rude ending, more than once in social media weather lore. I was an upperclassman back then, finishing up at UML. It was a three day "heat wave" - it wasn't ... but merely missing by a degree and decimal's worth. If memory serves it was 87 on March 29, then 88 and 91 were the high temperatures ( at the college weather station) for the 30th and 31st. The lows at night were like 45 that first night, then a couple of double nickles, making the total diurnal departure 30 points or more. Around 3:30 pm on the 31st, the temp was bouncing between 89 and 90 over that hour, doing the game of 'will it' ping 92. I was looking at NWS ASOS obs for it, because the BD was actually well modeled. For that era of modeling ...? BDs were even worst surprises at times than they still are even in today's modeling luxury. These days BDs are picked out well enough, but it's just a matter of position/timing and strength. Seldom do they blind side a nice afternoon. But this was an unusual case - what came along and didn't break the heat, it actually moved it to another planet. It was so powerful and physically constructed in the total circulation mode of over eastern Canada and the NE U.S., even the Japan model woulda nailed it - if it existed. While it was 90 F on the monitor, the ASOS out of CAR, ME had a 'RMK' for a 47 mph wind gust out of the ENE, the temperature was 37. I mean recall briefly looking off at an angle, "...54 F colder then here in the Merrimack Valley!" The front was also visible on base reflectivity channel. It was like a side-winder serpent on the scan, snaking it's way SW through NE NH and down the Maine coast, with attitude. Still, walking out of doors into that dry heat, flags lazily wobbling in the SW zephyrs, it was weird knowing the titanic is about to sink in that setting, and how the late adolescence and early adulthood carnival mood across the campus were all too oblivious. It didn't wait till late evening to come through up there in Lowell. I remember sitting looking out the window into the dusk from Smith Hall, and the bushes outside the window were thrashing away like there was an alley cat fight - some kind of big wind struck. The front arrived right around 6:30 pm... Makes sence... It was about 40 mile NE of PWM at 3:30, moving SW at 40 mph at least - it was really leaning trees when it came through. It came through at almost wind advisory level. Not sure what the rate of the temp fall was.. .but it was 38 F the next morning there, and it really didn't move much during the day.. maybe 40. Basically, 50 point correction. I've witnessed some 45ers on a couple of occasions, but never 50+ That's that is like the Feb 1978 of BDs

heh... what? - what are we talking about here? I was just snarking that autumns snow in october, and bud out shrubs in early decembers ... and that it's been 80 several times in february's and march's ... and then packing pellet flurries several times in mays ( which means it's a matter of time before a synoptic wave event happens to time with one of those cold layouts). And I put last years f'ed up 4th of july bs right in that same oddity envelope/causality, too. at least...i was "thinking" all that lol. but sure... history repeats. civilization out performs its own necessity and apathy takes over which leads to loss of competences ...inexorably ending up in self destruction? sure - altho, this dip shit dumb ass move by Putin has only galvanized the Euro front and it's allies that are of western cultural heritage... a salubrious revitalization of western interests that always wants to realize societies NOT in Putin's ( and China's taking notes) vision ... Good work jaggovs.. It's really catastrophically inept work by agency-scaled intellegentsia. In fact, it's so badly failing logic and just "duh-ism" that it only leads me to believe that this "Existential threat ..." thing they said would imperil nukes? It isn't really over Russia's existence... It's really about the death of him and his cohorts vision/ideologies, and being on the wrong side of history and not accepting that. In simple terms, it is the demagogue's ambition that is under threat - not Russia. So that kind of feeds back favorably in lot of long winded popsicle headache course work ways, toward western civilization vitality. ...If they don't get vaporized in the process.

The worst example of this I ever observed was more synoptic in scale ...waaay back in the early spring of 1985. I think it was late March into early April. There was an unusual early season continental warm dome, probably anchored in a -PNA. But, the NAO was (likely..) just neg enough, that the Maritime nadir was parked still a bit too close for comfort ... banishing New England out of the carnival mood and lilac fragrances so badly it was like reading about Eden inside an Igloo. Oh my god.. did we hurt for it ... just like being in hell should. It was 87 F in Albany one of those days along that five day Mardi Gras in which their exuberant lavish taunted from outside our prison. Now, I lived in Rockport Ma at the time... so yeah that exaggerated matters, ...but trust me... it wasn't hugely better in BED-ORH in that cluster f'n rectal set up. The hyper front had set up from like BTV to HFD ... paralleling the NW flow aloft as it meandered around set Martime low.. Anywhere NE of that smelled like GOM lobster urine and hands were jammed in pockets. Basically, it was 80s to 38 astride the front. We had elevated thunder one day, while staying cold... that was the warm air getting about as close as it would.... Parole denied though. The dome and total hemisphere just modulated into a new paradigm where the ridge flattened and everything suppressed into just normal butt bang April New England. My family had just transplanted from southern Michigan the previous year... I suppose the hidden virtue of suffering that sense of loss, as acutely exacting as it was ... The lesson was indelible. I have never since under estimated New England's ability to prove that god is really some kind of a complete asshole -

Personally it seems more and more like nothing lines up with anything anymore

Lol … yeah deep snow pack … gone by the fire sign Aries.

I'm just looking at the T1 temperatures for Logan through the daylight hours of Monday... woask! Not that we didn't know it was coming but impressive numbers to say the least. -5 C steady the whole way. Here's the thing ... the RH values at 700 mb on that grid are 60 to 70% ... If there's a miasma of milk in the skies neutering the sun at all in that sounding, that wipes out the March 28th factor and is really how we'll challenge low max temperatures. As well as cold scorch these early budders

This is precisely my intention in the years to come... Will and I have mused about this in the past. Leaving at the end of March and never having to see the climate cesspool that is April in New England. I'll risk the rare year that its utopic ... knowing that it is far more probable that a forecast will say it's going to be that way, only to have one's head jammed up the GOM of anus seemingly on purpose... Lol...'but how do I really feel' No but if you really have the option - use it!

It is not realistic, nor efficient when when does not clearly get, believe or appreciate the scale and degree of the crisis. What does me coming up with solutions have to with identifying the problem. For the sake of discussion, the solution is stop engaging in that which with kill us - There is no remediation or moving to new geographies to avoid problem areas ...that which you cited evinces someone that has an overly simplified, therefore inadequate understanding of the larger manifold of moving parts in the climate holocaust. You don't possess that acumen. You don't.

In fact, that's pretty close to getting it done in that longer range Euro.. huh. I mean I wouldn't mention it but the canvas is in support so tfwiw -

Not for not but yup ... I said that this morning my self, that -NAOs over the western limb of the domain space don't typically correlate to well to warm sectors fisting to Montreal. Any warm intrusion at this time of year is autosuspect - I think the best 'protection' against miring misty rhea and/or general shit show is to just have the whole domain normalize to the point where the cyclone weakens and sort of ends up elevated like a broad disk at 500 mb. Sometimes that happens in spring, too. I mean it'd be self destructing into pancake days ...but at least it isn't a total prison nightmare in that option - Looks like there's still blue bomb hope out there into the first week of April though. Disappears quickly after that...but it aint over in the telecon/guidance tenors

I haven't had a beer in 7 years. It's been that long. 2015 ..it's 2022. really - I used to like Jack Abbey's ...micro brew located in Framingham. They had this really indescribable silky lager that you would swear was about to finish sweet but didn't. I guess they call that taste phenomenon 'overtones' ? It was I think 8% abv so not huge but not light. I just can't recall the name. I had always thought of beer as tolerably bitter to me - best to gin and tonic then chase a sipper. I never really truly fully "acquired" a taste for it. I got buddies ...well, used to. We're all mid aged and not really as concerned with it. They used to know beers and source and stuff. A year later, a conscious, and in a lot of ways... unconscious made decision which swept a change through my life style. I wasn't alcoholic per se. But I was living alone and didn't have any any 'natural buffers,' as a bachelor dude... getting toward 40 years ..blah blah. I was out of shape and weird symptoms. My doctor was kind of douche though. Told me the amount was not causing my problems... Then how come all of went away? you know. Anyway, now I have friends that sort of heading the same direction or beginning to ... so it's really like I beat them out by a decade.

You just repeated your same mantra back to us. I'll try to address some stand outs then I'll move along from this conversation. #1 In short, it is preventable; the solution is just not desirable... and that's what's really at stake. Those types of questions... 'why should we, if they won't' or another one of my favorites, 'we'll be dead before it matters' ( fecklessly immoral) ... these are all really stall tactics. They defer acceptance, or allow continued profligate practices by sending the issues spinning in discussion endlessly... Bargaining is sometimes referred. Unfortunately, the reality is probably not tenable by the minds of most - we are already doomed. That's probably it. We cannot change the momentum of 8 billion per capital species mass, as quickly as it necessarily must change. #2 That does not alter the truth of the problem - it only makes the point. Anthropomorphic activity is forcing environmental break downs - and it's not just CC by the way.. There are major toxicity problems ... land and sea. Where does one begin. Human male sperm counts are down all over the world - which may not be a bad thing, ironically. But microplastics... Narrow temperature tolerant phytoplankton die offs in the ocean. It comes across as though the scope of knowledge/awareness isn't there frankly. This has a ginormous spectrum of components. #3 The Earth is presently in a mass extinction event ... That is biological fact, not mere conjecture. And the reason, based upon all metrics of science in the cause-and-effect relationship, is that climate is changing faster than adaptation rates.. I said that in the previous - so your response is incorrect. If one registered what that means, that statement of yours does not logically follow. So... comes off a bit like conceptual avoidance. You are right that humans are adaptive ... but there is a tolerance range there, too. What we are warning as climate and atmospheric scientists, is a reality outside that range. One cannot adapt at a certain point - let alone large groups, to whole populations having to cooperate during dwindling resources. Again, the Earth's biological system, to which we owe our entire existence, is an integrated whole. If enough systems break down, we come under direct existential threats. #4 Depends what is meant by 'all our resources' - ... It's a race really ...

This is troubling .. But it is also indirectly - I believe - related to the same aspects that have decoupled the ENSO states from the circulation modes during recent winters. The energy observation is a different metric.. But that increasing is consistent with decoupling in the 'intuitive' sense - just probably needs the geophysical proof/mathematics But the decoupling thing has been intriguing in its own rights. This season spent some 5 .. 6 weeks with only weakly identifiable La Nina circulation foot-print. This type of decoupling has taken place during both warm(cool) ENSO events, with increasing frequency, spanning the last 15 or so years.

that was my exact assessment a moment ago - HA!

Cold snaps suck if one's switch has been flipped and they're all in on spring and warm enthusiasm. Still, a bit of over -circumscribed focus on Monday/Tuesday cold snap, when it really doesn't last terribly long. I suppose there's some novelty in challenging cold high temperature records. Yeah I guess.. You know it seems the last 25 years of observed weather has been making a mockery out of records, knocking them down by obsolete margins, too. Like, heat waves in the Pac NW that double the departure they just broke? Record high of 94 goes to a new record of 119 and shit like that... Jesus. Like, how that can even happen without two suns simultaneous lazing. This cold shot on Monday, if it holds Logan to 32 and merely "shatters" the record by a single degree - that would be hidden face smack actually... Cuz in a funny way, it's comparatively pedestrian. My guess is the temp rises to 32.5 and keeps the day as miserable as imaginable in every dimension.. haha. Wednesday may not be as bad it looks with early April sun pounding away on a d-slope flow. Despite the low hydrostatic heights, the air mass probably beats MOS in that look. Some alleviation anyway.. I agree that the warm sector at the end of the week may get suppressed given time. It's not typically a good statistic fit for -NAO's over the western limb of its domain region, to also have warm penetration N of 40 along PIT-N NJ. Assuming the NAO is being handled right -

It’s different now though. The ‘all winter long nothing has…’ isn’t therefore applicable unfortunately. The limitations plaguing winter, destructive spacing and velocity interference, are no longer as prevalent. Flow’s slower with shortened wave lengths … it’ll phase more proficiently - in the relative sense.

Well yeah hardy har-har but the reason I bring it up - in my defense - has to do with the end of the solar nadir - which is a real thing. Perennially that date is Feb 10 at 45deg latitude. There's a bit of philosophy to this... but, in a celestial mechanical purist perspective, the first day of spring should really be when the solar nadir ends, on that date. The Earth's air-sea-land machinery takes a long time to switch gears... March 1st is really just a cataloguing convenience for climate science ( I believe ..that's what I read years ago) The only real value March 20-22nd has is the fact that the Earth's tilt wrt to the ecliptic is dead even at some point/ hour and moment in the orbital arc through those dates. Calling that the first day of spring March 21 doesn't really mean jack shit to celestial mechanics, which is what/why we have seasonal variations at all. It's just human labels. But to the celestial mechanics, the change begins on ~ Feb 10. If humans ever wanted to call seasons based upon a real celestial -rooted metric, they should be designated relative to latitude... 42 N is ~ Feb 8th... which is Logan airport, given decimals. At Logan, winter should be Nov 8 to Feb 8. Spring should be Feb 8 to May 8. Summer should be May 8 to Aug 8. Aut should be Aug 8 to Nov 8. Climate and sensible weather lag by these solar calendar by 45 or even 60 days... and people probably don't like calling autumn, autumn, when it's 101 F amidst and Dente heat wave on Aug 20... no more than they like calling spring, spring, when there's an 1888 redux...

What snow threat ? ... cold shot, perhaps

Yeah...definitely see it. I mean they brilliantly illustrated in the scenes how the hereditary culture of toeing the line ... well, I don't wanna give it way. Heh, I mean I think we all know where it ended up. People knowing Z is wrong, or A is dangerous, and not speaking up to an excruciating extent. Lol... above all else for me, 'how could anyone want to live in a society that crushes life flat by such weighted dogma. It's not even about communism, either. It's literally down to the scale of fearing the person's rank standing in front of you, fearing reprisal if they even sniff your dissension. If you see that... and understand the cultural vestige - then imagine how a rampart of top Russian brass would handle an inner cadre of unhinged superiors. I think it's a fascinating 'stand-off' ... When/if we get through this, there's a fantastic read and/or remake of this history no doubt. But let's get the world through this first.

I know there are both direct and indirect ties to foreign state ... I was asking whether detection methods knows where the pings are originating. They can tunnel/'root' technologies ... but a brilliant hacking agencies, or those operating alone ( either ) have means to conceal their whereabouts. I'm just curious if part of the wave is more just those latter types hitting all at once, and if the difference can be determined.

Heh.... nah that's a tongue-in-cheek metaphor for that context. Actually the whole post has some hand throwing frustration like that. In something more like reality, without full support, both intellectual and moral of the rank and file of both the the Kremlin and the infrastructural military/ arsenal Poopin isn't going to be able to carry out such a finality - not a Global scale. Moreover, that business I posted about the Yevgeny Ilyin ( ranking Russian Military figure ) is being reported by multiple independent news sources. Putting these fact into an intelligentsia manifold, it doesn't add up to Poopin having unilateral internal support. This is one man and his closest figures simply not accepting the reality that the World has long abandoned the former paradigm, leaving their ideology on wrong side of history ... The Generals outburst and tamber, surely signals they are aware of the shear lunacy in allowing this thing to escalate to scorching Earth based upon that cause. They know... The gotta. This whole war is really the vestigial super ego, death gasp act of a dying apparatus... Part of the problem is also courage to go up against the hierarchical command structure, inherent to Russian sociology. Folks should really watch the recent "Chernobyl" docudrama. They beautifully cinema the crushing culture the Russians have about respecting echelon, and not challenging authority - literally to knee bent fear. Even in the face of clear and present idiocy. There's some of that vestigial issue going on here... The General and his comments, together with the mien of the entourage that wasn't distilled any other way during those meetings with Western/NATO brass, signal they are troubled. And probably, quite frustratingly coveting their resolves. It's plausible if not likely he may be more tethered internally ( Poopin') than he may even know. Their watching him and will step in? I lean suspiciously toward some form of internal recourse quietly ending this. Quasi, or intimate coup de etat, or some lesser sort of step aside... It doesn't make sense already for Russia to persist with this conflict, and with NATO allied nations supplying now munitions to the Ukrainians forces, ... it cannot end well for Russia. Then (obviously) considering the enormous economic pressures added to all that really... ? It's already over. They have to have an exit strategy. But one that doesn't require everyone is dead, on all sides. Or else we are truly dealing with mass psychosis involving large numbers and that's already proven to be far less likely. The Generals emotive response and outburst - from a noted character of stoical disconnect behind cerebral glaring back amid other amulet adorned brass, is a pretty powerful suggestion that dissension over this whole war must be present among said rank.

I'm just an Internet happen-by like anyone else..but when I come across 'cyber attack' escalation waves, I'm always wondering if these are foreign sovereignty ( state ) sanctioned? Some likely are/have been. I think there is pretty damning evidence of 'cyber cold warring' from China. And Russia for that matter. But just knowing sociology at a menial level of healthy cynicism ... a tech genius misanthrope covert from his/her basement, can do a lot of damage alone. Consder: if they are a part a population 300,000,000, ... pure numbers argue there's a huge number of those types. Moreover, likely triggered/ picking times of duress like this to scale up their bidding - Does detection know the difference. Are there times when it's just a wave of zealots ...en masse, giving the allusion of a orchestrated attack, or is it in fact some "Sector 7" of foreign government. Probably both. F'n humans ...

There's 80 .. 90% chance that Brian will be disgruntled tomorrow... Most guidance agree that the D- attempted Miller B will cripple its way toward the Martimes, exiting the region between 06 and 12z .. That backside of this may get real, real lucky for everyone S-E of his geographic hell tomorrow, where light backside d-slope flow is not deeply cold advecting, yet still just strong enough to aid in DVM/NVA clearing... That's all code for him pancaking the day at a stalled 48 while anyone 10 mi S-E of the pancake rim will be shooting toward the low 60s ... Just perfectly annoying lol Seriously, it does look like we get lucky and soar the temp mid day tomorrow. The flow aft the low's passage prior to dawn does come around to the NW. It's not really imparting much cold ..easily offset by d-slope compression. Models may tend to over pollute the ceiling coverage in that sort of set up - at least they used to.. ...Model choice is blend of Euro/NAM ... leaning Euro for RH/sigma levels. The Euro's bone dry by 18z at 700, 500 and 300 mb, over top a +4 at 850 mb and +11 ..12C at 925... in column that's mix-able through that depth... So that's 22C for a > 60% insolation shining into the 2-meter. What a shocker compared to to 37 F R- retchedness out there right now. Feel the GFS is too lagged with 925 to 700 mb RH for that 12z to 18z window...altho it does tend to dry out the column by 18z so it may not be totally wrong either. This is the way it's likely to be for the next 10 days ... how far into April is anyone's guess. But these kind of sneaky nape days emerge in time, in between either the mired of drab days like today, or those obnoxious windy cold wasted sun ones... I'd say that's also pretty spot on our climate for New England at this time of year, too. Cold shot early next week does little for lingering winter enthusiastic hope ... then rinse and repeat at the end of the week. Welcome to thrilling inspiration of New England spring... By this time next year, I may be shopping in a different region in the country. I'm changing preferentially/internally ... I'm starting to not feel/sense the benefit of winters when then having to contend with endless protracted nature of this ultra low redemptive spring discomfort. It's just not ringing as worth it to me. I'm outgrowing it... something.