Typhoon Tip

Subtle trends to ablate the higher QPF as this crosses now into the outer short range. Also, more than subtle trend in the American guidance to suppress the latitude just enough to spare the region the heaviest combination of wind and QP numbers... The 12z GFS really only misty rains and winds the region with the heaviest CCB core banding just clipping SE zones. I will draw attention that this is a west limb -NAO regime we are in during this thing, so a southern corrections are plausible. Even the Euro's hour 84 pivot SE - rather new in that guidance ... - may be a nod. We are also still in new version/release ... hm.. This may end up being a pedestrian impactor. Also, bearing in mind, big ticket phenomenon being normalized heading into short terms is an issue all guidance seem to have trouble with - it's been very noticeable over the past 5 years to the extent where it is almost dependable .. you wack some 30% off the top 'magnificence' of these D7 juggernauts - based purely on that rather dependable error, having this coastal/off-shore storm system end up a little weaker than the Euro 968 mb low from two days ago ...might not be a bad expectation, either.

Oh boy. This is either model feedback bs or the attribution buzzards are gonna be circlin

It’s a hurricaneaster

I thought it was warm secluded but that phase behavior fold back in after the fact. Huh

NAM may be too far N-W with that surface/lower troposphere but as is ...that 18z run is an interesting QPF scenario .. hearkens to 2006 May - though not synoptically analogous per se but the stalled CCB/WCB intersect that elevating the later into a back bent/TROWALing, bear some similarity nonetheless. And, over-top a forced ascent up-slope flow into the eastern whites would probably double that QPF it's already painting if that evolved that way. Thing about 2006 is that it was maybe 2 or 3 weeks out of cap melt and the shed was still heavy when that stalling/similarity took place. So.. prooobably doesn't result the same but ... at this time of year, the October variant may also be operating off a denser PWAT inject so -

It's interesting if not predictable watching that later 'big red spot' vortex start dampening out like that. I wondered this yesterday, if that thing might start devolving/morphing into something else. I mean it's not atypical for a double dong mid range to start favoring one end or the other as dominant ... Maybe that's happening here. Also, tough to ignore the emerging PNA look to the extended. EPS and GEFs appear in line for at least modest +PNAP, if perhaps in spite of La Nina. Although as we've noted, La Nina's tend to front load so ...heh, maybe we're on the verge of a rare Thanks Giggedy to Xmas winter ...followed by a January thaw+ CC signal, ...followed by a big blizzard bust in early February, before the annual 83 F on Feb 15 - yup ... that's the seasonal outlook. Forget the dissertations of peregrinated graphs and prose, and just go with that one run-on sentence.

As a winter storm enthusiast about to reentry into that season ... one should be happy that we are "setting a precedence for coastals" earlier on. At least per may experience - seasons that do that tend to parlay toward more of it as the cold season maturates. That may chap the asses of La Nina -centric seasonal footed outlooks... but it doesn't have to be true every autumn into winter, either.

Heh... yeah, different animal

This thing is also jumping around in the Euro guidance, ranging from ALB to southern NH to SE of ISP in the last 3 runs. Haven't detailed the other guidance.. But the lack of lower tropospheric baroclinicity isn't given the low genesis an anchor point ...the models are getting chaotic about where to put it over time.

that'd flood but not like Ida cinema .. . Guessin' not 14" of rain in 5 hours or whatever that was...

I think I'm losing my sense of autumn typology - what's it 'sposed to be like in late October --> November again? they've been so f'ed up the last decade. I mean, 4-6" snow'tobers, then 80 two-weeks later in November. But it's not snowing this October - that can't be right! Days get shorter with day-light and all, and maybe the air gets gradually cooler at some point - if I just focus on that, and ignore the climate land-mines going off around these reconnoiters toward winter. But then what of it... we'll just arrive into yet again, a disappointing shredded atmosphere of sonic speed commercial airline traffic in an overall HC compression gradient that rinse-and-repeat, at best, only weirdly fits whatever ENSO was leading. Finally, the polar wave # meanders around the boreal hemisphere to gives us our two shots at real storm event that only splits and gives Brian 45" in 9 hours, while the rest of us cryo-dust-storm our way to rationalized glory. It feels as certain as the portends prior to that Red Sox "forfeit" last night

Yeah ... The models have two on-going biases: They are consummately too strong in their total synoptic emergence' in the mid+ ranges And when they inevitably bust that way, ironically the system in question still [somehow or why] rains out 3-fold more than they were modeled to do so.

Probably a good opportunity to address the Euro amplitude bias ...for the 3,855th time ... wrt to D8 and EC -orienting cyclone synoptics. It's so badly ever verifying ... the obviousness of it builds into the observers expectations, such that ( phew!) we'd never have to see these charts get posted. Lol - Bustn' ballz a little but ...yeah, that looks like the Euro doing its typical dog-'n'-pony show of applying hyper-curved physical forcing to everything it happens to be handling at that time range. It basically does that at two time intervals: one is over the relay of D5+ ...The other is anytime after D7+ ... There is coherent sudden increases in the "complexion" and depth artistry of these graphics routinely out of ECMWF's product suite, that seems to just poof! Shows up like some kind of dram-lust magic It's part of their marketing ploy, I'm convinced... It only helps their sales/licensing if the model "users" are regaled by a stem-wound bomb on every other model-cycle. They're drug dealers - Anyway, I don't know if the EPS does this...but, looking at it - it's no wonder ( either way ) is is significantly more pallid compared to stalling a Category 3 "Hurricaneaster" over Time's Square.

Personally ...i'd settle for excitement and entertaining events and not so much for the damage. Ones priorities change when they maintain a mortgage heh

Walt ... oh Walter Drag ... haha, I just saw "Drag files here to attach, or choose files..." and coincidentally that reminded me of who you meant - weird. well I agree then But the GFS ( fwiw - ) has the warm front pinned to the S with a cad signature - also possible. But southern CT/RI down to NYC could be gunnin' in that GFS. The thing is, if the warm front does get to southern VT/NH, then a 500 mb vort goes by to the south, that's a wild few hours for the interior. Only D4 isn't the worst range.

You know ...now that I take closer look at the D4 synopsis off the Euro, that has an autumn- style synoptic severe potential. That 850 warm front is up to central NE...and the pressure contours actually suggest that the surface boundary might be displace N of the 500 mb trough amplitude ...situating SSW of NYC. Unusual for this time of year ... but that would supply sick helicity stress through the entire SNE column and doing with destablizing mid level lapse rates - with that 500 mb core as it approaches... Nice -

not that it matters either way ... anyway, let's play the 'wow, 'magine if that was deep winter when that happened' game

I pissed and moaned about the durational shit storm off the Labrador two days ago - it's not new

Welp ...this ought'n be the last warm- ish day for at least a little while. I don't suspect the warm calls for specific days ..what was that, 27th 30th and Halloween ? have a lot of confidence when we have suppressed back-drilling -NAO over the western limb of the domain, and an active Pacific relay pattern sending atmospheric nuke waves "under" our latitude. The Euro's been selling the last in the series as breaking in on itself and stalling over OH ... hm, cannot toootally refute that idea - after all ... -NAO is blocking. Particularly when the ridge/+hgt aspect is situating N of Maine. Weird region for that actually. But, the Euro also tends to curl up and package wave spacing too much beyond D5's in all older versions going back to 1990s ... I realize we've just "fixed" it but who knows if the former genetic inheritance is part of that. The GFS tries to stretch the flow more and make the whole time span appear more proper -NAO cyclone track suppressed. Which also ...cannot be outright negated as plausible. The blend of the two is probably a tendency for a long ... long stretch of easterly fetch of tepidly cool autumn air. Then, we'll see what that first week of Novie brings. I'm still interested in that time span for a more robust colder regime. It seemed originally as though that could arrive .. well, now, post the 20th, but it was always a rangy affair. I won't consider the telecon spread/mass-field tenor as a failed indicators until it gets clear that we don't.

I dunno - these autuman/seasonal book-end -NAOs have been a repeating theme for a decade now, regardless of ENSO types leading/during/enduring... I don't know if this is really "caused" by La Nina - it is just as likely that: a it is coincidentally occurring; whatever reason is driving the seasonal pro-lapse/lapse at either end phenomenon, happens to be happening when La Nina appears more coherent. We shouldn't get happy about connecting the dots when it's true/been true in multiple varied leading factorization. b it is both ...so the NAO is being augmented, but still cannot be "entirely" attributed to ENSO in that sense. c all ENSO driven ...which is what I suspect a lot of seasonal educated guess-work would prefer, because that's just an older popular mantra that - yes - has been shown to be (at least) statistically significant in climate efforts ..blah blah. But I caution that CC is making those historical inferences less confident moving forward. This has been hugely suggested actually, as the last two hefty warm ENSOs did not bear as much "El Nino destructive fruit" when observing the typical climate routes -

Oh yeah...I remember that stand-up he did. I wanna say 1980s actually. I didn't re-listen to the whole thing but I do remember it. Interesting. Full circle. I was ever aware or remembering that bit of his when around 98, the first time I am drove down to Va Beach via the Del Marva route, and experience that area of the mid Atlantic. It seem we have disparate experiences converging on the same take-away. I dunno - maybe y'all like it but consider yourselves warned LOL

It's actually gotten better in all honesty .. but I like that kind of observational humor so thought I'd embellish. It was really much more like that up through about 2002... seemed to start changing soon after that. That "annexing" thing, for "gun-'n'-tackle" strip malls and an assortment of repeating fast food cardio stops I guess are something. It is an attempt/movement toward revitalization... Back in the day ...it was all about countless old abandoned real-estate ... trees growing out of the living room windows of a partially roof-collapsed houses set equidistant out amid a half mile square flat expanse, were too commonly seen to be ultimately comforting; with ghosts moaning 'faaaaaailure' in the winds of nostalgia you actually weren't really ever a part of ? it's weird - hence the creepy vibe. But you get that anywhere.... Hell, driving through upstate NY and your eye catches glimpse of some abandoned church set back partially obscured behind a stone wall and figure its been annexed by the local rape -underground. I don't know what it is... something about greasy-spoon rural settings cast a weird vibe of being separated from the hip vision of directive progressive culture and okay ... I don't mean to act elitist - some are happy in that realm, and more power to them - not me. Even though I am f'n stuck in Ayer Mass.

Did he really? ... Omg, no shit - I'm saying - that's a great line; I could have started that passage in there with that sentence, then gone from there. I mean exactly! I like George's comedy but I am not familiar with what ever that came from but yeah man - Dover is like really trying the best it can but is pedestrian ...

Omg, that sentence just eloquently and succinctly describes the entire span on the other side of the Chesapeake Bay, too. I don't know why Delaware actually needs to exist, frankly. I think it's it pull yanks over to harass them for fun. Yes...known as the Delaware spirit abyss ( ..the Eastern Shore to locals), if one ever has to drive that dreaded 230 miles between I-95 down to the Chesapeake Bridge-Tunnel, you'll know this agony. The only redeeming interlude along that eternal distance is ... maaaybe Dover. With a truly visionary and enlightening Barnes&Nobles and Au Bon Pains, mashed up with locally favorite prideful retail, it's a 'real up and comer cutting edge cultural destination'. Heh. Otherwise, Dover is long lights servicing some 10 contiguous miles of parking lots that astride the 8 lane-widened Rt 1 boulevard as it cuts through town. You know..I think it may be possible to start at one end ... and use the internal connectors between parking lots and make the entire distance having never actually been on the boulevard there... (there's always that to think about to pass the time) Why? omg - Then almost immediately upon escaping Dover, heading south on Rt 1, narrows down to 2 lanes and becomes just an unforgiving eternity. I swear, the Earth is 25,000 miles in circumference ... that 180 miles between Dover the rest of the way to Bridge-Tunnel goes around that distance 2wice! I'm convinced of it. It's a flat expanses that repeats cycling through abandoned farmsteads that are slowly being annexed by single story strip malls that just look tired and sleepy and futile from the road as you try not to look, zipping past 20 mph over the speed limit ...anything, to not admit you are there because it's creepily vapid - almost ineffably so. You can just feel the insular energy there, as though the fish-denizens have no idea there's a universe out side the glass at either ends. Although Lil' Miss Eliot hails from that region - I am told - and really like her dirty-ass rap song ... so she's okay I guess. My sister lives in Va Beach. .. Funny thing is, I once missed the Rt 1 exit off I-95 just over the Del Mem Bridge that one time, as I hadn't driven the trek in 12 years - it's kind of a tricky nexus... You have to really look for it after slipping through the bridge's exit tolls or you may miss. That time, I'm looking for it and instead start seeing exit numbers of Washington D.C. ... oh no! Turns out, it wasn't that bad, though. Even Maryland Staties were doin' 90 mph with a single arm draped languid over their wheels while texting ... As long as demography was tacking in a 88, perhaps that didn't offer these guys any challenges that triggered primal contest with authority, so they left us alone. I actually got all the way down to the junction of 74 E, in Va, in just 8 total hours, and it was only another 1.5 ~ to pass by the Norfolk Naval Base. It made me wonder why I was ever talked into doing the Del Marva route by family back in the day - never thought to challenge. The Bridge-Tunnel is fascinating, and that's why. They were talking about it as a fun ride. And it is. It's 29 miles of road that as you approach it from the Del Marv side, it looks serpentine like Asian dragon art, as it lurches out of the water, and then descends out of sight beneath the gray plain of the Bay (presumably - one hopes - as it goes into tunnels). There are two over water expanses and two tunnels; the latter allows the mariner traffic ...both military and commercial industrial. Talking 3 football field-long cargo 'islands' so massive that at 20 kts they look like they are standing still on the Bay horizon, and if you time lucky, an actual WMD known as Air Craft Carrier en route to the Naval base. I mean, your driving 30 feet over the water out in the middle of the ocean, then you go ... under the ocean. It's pretty cool. But, 15 min later your breaching the opposite shore having not drowned in a catastrophic failure of engineering or tsunamis.. So, it's now bit of decision upon exiting the Del Mem Bridge: Do I set myself up for two anxiety-loaded sessions with my analyst, enduring so for to experience Bridge-Tunnel. My biggest fear is that fractal reality strikes when I'm passing through, and then I wake up one morning 20 years later in a state of rationalization that, "I guess it wasn't so bad how that happened and I ended up here."

Old habits die hard ...