Typhoon Tip

Apparently there was snow in the air down to the road surface of rt 2 in nw Mass yesterday with CAA instability/oreogrphics

Actually ... it would take several weeks to know or 'look' like anything ...until FEMA or Military AW101 helos had a chance to penetrate the naturally occurring WMD "glacial blast radius" ... maybe to those outside that zone. being hyperbolic of course...

That is the beast of all cryo monsters. Imagine that now ... I mean it comes to be a trope, because we say that all the time with the "fragility" of civility's various dim-witted planning vs exposure and vulnerability profiles. Like ... Long Island drinking a lot of Ice Tea thinking they could put a trillion dollar of infrastructure and real estate out there, and NOT have a Category 4 freak 'cane express over... Or of course NOLA.... Or how about the Canary Island bifurcating geological tsunamis basically going all the way across the Florida Peninsula... zaggeratin but just makin the point. Anyway, 1921 was still an era threading the grid - it was not nearly as embedded and wholly relied upon as it is now... Not even the same f'n world man. So yeah, used turn of phrase or not, 3 to 4" of accretion pan-dimensional in scale would be a level 5 catastrophe - basically, complete failure.

wait a sec ... do you realize? that was 15 f'n years ago. FIF TEEN

This picture always reminds me of Mt Washington

I vote a new definition be employed hence forth: 'The Raymond Effect' Anyone that asks ... direct them to your post and prefix, "for example"

2008 ? Yeah, the aspect of that even that stood out to me was how the fringe townships like Acton and Littleton... Maynard ...basically between towns along/asride I-495 that were below the bigger accretion level, lost power for a day or two ...due - it turned out - to compensating grid drag effects. We started blue glow buzzing the night horizons all around us as transformers started domino-ing, shorting out from current reroutes - I thought that was fascinating. As it were, in the morning we had about 1/4" of accretion - interestingly ... - along just the tops of all tree canopies in town, but from mid tree heights to the ground was just damp with no ice. No ice on the car tops or windows, either. That's about as "marginal incarnate" as is imaginably can be demonstrate by an open natural setting.. weird. Never had seen a melt line literally 30 feet off the ground like that. Either way, ... 1/4" isn't enough typically to induce a whole town outage...and we were told that it was drag on the system from the drain.

Not to be overly fastidious ... but, I think it depends also on mass-field orientation. What I mean is, the trajectory angle of the overriding warm column (at its particular given temperature/DP mixing ratio) plays a factor in it's 'erosion' capacitance. A WSW override doesn't need 'as strong' a due N a-geo, to hold cold in. But a due S one, would time the cold retreat/moderation at the surface, inland, faster. Perhaps a key ratio can be derived, ..like, resulting in 1 in the arithmetic; 1.1 results in warm air winning sooner... .9 results in cold air overwhelming and going more pellet ptypes. Pseudo science to make the point - Sufficient influx of DP to offset latent heat of phase change, is in just the right proportion to erosion ( in and out in balance), is all it is needed, and matters less characterizing either side of the boundary as strong or weak, just don't clobber the other side and the icing is static

I mean solar factors. But so does ENSO... and lately, HC expansion theory. ... PDO/AMO ... bad or good luck. Pick. Personally, I'm a little less clear on the discrete difference between CME and UV, in the total concept of solar AO correlation/causality. Namely, I wonder actually if the two have the same modulating impact on the Ozone concentration within the upper altitudes of the AO domain. CME's are like clouds of high-energy charged particles ... traveling at Sci Fi dream velocities... But they are not UV (ultra violate ), which is an electromagnetic wave phenomenon ( photon type ). It just so happens that when magnetic entanglements burst over the solar disk, CME mass often coexists with a flash of UV.. The UV gets here in 8 minutes! The CME... up to 72 hours in some cases. Such that active sun-spot eras also are increased UV eras ... But I am not sure that either interacts/effects Ozone in the same way. I happen to know that UV is the appropriate wave length to disassociate 0zone ... I am not sure if these high-energy particulates also do the same, specifically - The impetus there: 0zone is very responsive to thermal absorption from planetary wave phenomenon decaying at very high altitudes - simply termed, it is where warm air advection at mid and upper troposphere, terminates and fade.. usually above 60 N, at very high altitudes. Those plumes interact within the PV at high altitudes, and if there happens to be a +anomaly Ozone concentration, that proficients in absorption "flashes" an onset of warm atmospheric mass ...that starts the whole thing. That mass then ( might ) propagate back downward (crucial behavior in the -AO forcing ), while spreading laterally in space. It usually takes a couple weeks to compete that downwelling... When it reaches the height of the tropopause ( usually around 200 mb, averaged all seasons at those latitudes), its downward momentum weakens the cyclonic physical manifold of PV... ( has to do with ambient stablizing/DVM). Vortex weakens to varying degrees. The ring westerlies around the pole begins to lose coherence, severs... and then alternating troughs and anticyclonic nodes formulate ... a.k.a., 'blocking' and that's the ball-game. +AO --> -AO So, if UV is destroying 0zone, that "cleanses" - for lack of better word - such that the normal dispersion of wave events doesn't "flash" warm events. This is why low solar activity in summer and autumn, tend to precede years with Sudden Stratospheric Warming events - but the key word there is 'tend'. The complexity in this whole relationship manifold is mind boggling. "how much" solar is detrimental to "how much" Ozone is present - perhaps event 'type' of Ozone - are moving amounts in time. That's probably break-point/threshold headaches in hell to uncouple those and figure out what those critical values of either, are. Plus, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation ( west vs east ) is also correlated to the SSW, apparently - makes one wonder if the QBO is indirectly, statistically significant wrt the solar, too. It seems it has to be. Ooph. But ... the forcing appears better explained in the other direction. Anyway, this summer and autumn the sun has decided to go ahead and start firing CME's at the Earth. I don't know what the longer termed UV numbers look like, but I suspect they are somewhat above normal because the two tend to coincide. Lastly, the onset of propagating SSWs doesn't dictate the AO's seasonality a given year. There are -AO and +AO winters, on whole, that may or may not have featured SSWs.

Well heh .. there is a giant gap filled with forces between "strongest solar sun spot year," and a "very good winter." The former does not necessitate that latter, either way -

Was it though ? I think the definition/interpretation has been through the 'human definition adaptation mill' - SO ... my contribution to the rumor canard is that it has to be 28 for three consecutive hours for a hard freeze. And a Freeze is < 32 but above that lower bound for 3 hours. And a headline-able frost doesn't necessarily have to freeze. I could swear I read this when I was like 11 ... but maybe the 'official' definitions have changed over the years. Or, what I read 387 years ago wasn't true to begin with.

It is… We’ll see if it holds or if it fades like so many before it. It could actually fade half and just be nothing for us still verifying

The cool wave for the 3-9th has moderated down the stretch - sorry it has... That is the 2nd time this has happened since October 20 or so -... One can wonder if the latter November idea does the same thing - perfectly valid. At least for me and whatever I said... that much is worth the question based on seasonal trend - albeit early .. admittedly. If this were Vegas I might put money down as a pass-over bet between bigger games... Part of the problem is, that's been doing that in the models for years now. Euro... GFS ? doesn't matter. Any cold, hot, storm or phone # I get from a girl at a f'n pub, overwhelmingly verify something less than initially advertised. We'll see - we may end up cooler out whence but I'd be little surprised at this point if it is as deep as EPS variance. It'll probably be on the warmer inner curve of that mean if that last 7 years has any meaning

You know ..., and we have now cycled through two distinct intervals where/when the models ( and even telecon spreads ) signaled at minimum, a seasonal cool spell, ..but then, they moderated as the days clicked off and what we got was barely normal. I'm already getting a little gun-shy about cold and here we are all of November 3rd. I guess it's early ... there may be a bit of interpretation magnification. I mean, storms, cold or heat alike, all seem to come into extended ranges ominously...then correct toward manageable. An error aspect of guidance that's been happening for several years, frankly. But maybe in a month one of these cool waves will be deep enough to correct to 'still somewhat negative' instead of disappearing.

Did anyone else notice the 12z guidance' et al pretty much kissed the back of the donkey's balls ?

Yup ... My own muse: interestingly, the Euro scoring - it never was this 'iffy' ( for lack of better description) at D 4's. Last night's run as the sets that synoptic table along the SE coast and astride Atlantic, as the outlier already - My personal experience with the Euro over ... the last 20 years really ... is that it has two rather dependably timed, broadly painted amplitude strokes that it washed synoptic finishes - those being the relay from D5 to 6 ... then again, D 7 to 8. *Usually* on the short side of D 5's ... about 10 years ago, that model could not be beat. But it seems I have seen more occurrences in the recent .. 4 or 5 years of that guidance were D4 is come into question - based in no small part that its 'bust'/error frequency seems to have increased. It's still a very good model. I mean ...we are not taking it down from the top of the totem pole ( like this culture likes to meteorite impact fame at least excuse imagined ...and we judge the same way in here...) .. It'll be interesting this next run here in a little bit, to see if these other guidance sources start bumping that coastal closer to the coast. One thing we have to consider is that the governing mechanics for that would-be storm are coming off the Pacific along a rather flat trajectory - as is such, almost purely assimilated. Assimilation has come a long way and ...yeah, probably unlikely that it is the present reason for model-to-model variance. Still, that probability isn't 0. We have seen systems in the last 10 years be all but pancaked out to sea entirely, and then 48 hours out they came 'storming' back in the guidance, too - The only reason it matters is because there's this tide concern.

It's more than just upslope.. ( to the straw dude - ) The nose ( exit ) region of a 500 mb S/W is approaching from southern Ontario. This is causing some lower level convergence extending along/over the St L Seaway at the surface. Along and in front of this axis, west flow flow through lingering continental moisture supply ( delayed growth/soils ) but most likely also modest thete-e flux off Huron, Erie and Ontario probably factor. Topographic-forced accent as those west trajectories arrive then is combining with some scaled lift potential from the above mechanics, with a modest difluence with the approach of that jet etc.. So you get a bit of synergistic feed-back there... too, sure. There's meso-beta scaled baroclinic leaf passing into the region as illuminated by IR, with cooling/cold cloud tops - The whole of it has enough synoptic support ... I'd argue this is your first synoptic event of the season - however limited to just aesthetics it may be. I think it should be noted, frankly.

33 frost #2

GEFs not opposed to the notion ~ Nov 15/17 breakthrough. Though it appears to be more in the emergence phase/showing up in that cluster ... Usually when this happens, the signal matures, or turns out faux - but having cross- source support is obviously not a bad omen either. The operational GFS is really doing it's typical grind act on the warm up, too ...tending to pancake it S of 40 N and aiming Pac waves like torpedoes along NP - southeast Canadian exit, which tends to cut boundaries south... But its main change is clearly nearing the end of the extended. Long haul

all fixed - sorry if anyone tried to pm/txt ...

Ah good call - Yeah I don't actually check in with that inbox too frequently ... scratch that. Ever. I mean, nothing against it. Anyway, the top of the interface says, "Used 106% messenger storage" - just a hunch, but that particular message and the the solid block bar with no remaining space might just be a clue there, huh - By the way, ... ooph, when I was just cursory going down the list just now there are several colloquy from James Nichols regarding writing - I was taking it off line and giving him a hand with aspects...etc. Not sure if those advises helped him or not, but anyway... that's weird - I had forgotten those were there. f

wait, did you actually send a test message ? I didn't receive one, just sayn'

ah, ...I don't know? Oh maybe ... a long while ago there was an upgrade of the software - it's a Brian / 'Stormtracker' thing ... Anyway, I and few others started getting text/email notification bombs. They were looking into it ... I dunno - just spit ballin' but maybe they just turned off PMs for awhile. Other than that - no idea

The rapacity of human nature is primal and it still lurks in us at all times. It pervades our everything and what we do in our everyday; suppressed as it may be during say, Sunday congregates, or be it out in the wellness intents and purposes of civility-meccas. We are still just a vastly more sophisticated model; like, the Lion pride in this regard. Both Lion prides, as well as human have order intelligentsia, manifest as organization into complex, cooperative social machinery. Social -oriented species: it is an evolutionary adaptation that provides greater success probability, 'teamwork' toward a common goal increases survival prospects for the whole group. However, upon the realization of the goal, ... that's when things get complicated. The spirit of cooperation tends to break down after fact - On a planet with one species that has innovated its way to 7 1/2 billion populate density - ...I think the "fact" that is after, is winnable, ( albeit not won yet - not by choice ). We can let the foot off the throttle! Rapacity as a primal drive is a survival instinct that doesn't turn off as such. It's going to tug at people's intents and purposes, such that it pervades everything Humanity does et al. Proof? It is why we have provisionally allowed population to explode to 7.5 orders of magnitude, yet and while poverty still exists. Sorry, we don't really believe in equality. We don't. We recognize the idealization and value therein; we are not here to practice it. We are not intelligent enough to stop ourselves from allowing 1% from owning 99% the wealth. That is the Lion metaphor, that "flat headed" resolve after the kill, around the carrion... fighting one another for a position at the head of the blood lust table. Reenters or perhaps "releases," the seeded primal urges, reorganizing motivations into 'self,' and the growing ulterior motivations manifest as the snark above that I abused your post with -LOL. But they were always there, held at bay, while the cooperation's machinery was running. The squabbles or fights at the carrion of the Lion pride? That is the credit grabs, ... the more than one's shares ... to 'moral flexibility' and rationalizations, to crimes. That is what ultimately leads to 'money talks' - it's not money. It's primal. These motivated-out-of-insatiable-greed examples ... there is co-drive to procure "meat" at the expense of other's mouthfuls, once there is a sense of certitude of provisional source.

I see what's going on