Typhoon Tip

Assimilated data seems to do this … then the mains roll and it backs off

Heh ICON’s 18z clipped eastern zones with cat paws from that old 22nd thing

I suspect they’re just framing their outlooks with persistence in mind. Until something breaks toward a verification that at last validates all theses -so far- empty indications … can’t really blame them if that’s the case

We’ll … the probabilistic upshot of that is that D10 GFS deterministic solutions are usually determined NOT to successfully take place. I posted that for fun btw -

18z GFS scrubbed the launch for the week after Xmas now, too LOL... Tries to bridge the -NAO with the S-SE positive anomaly, right over our skies ...

Funny you mentioned this .... I have been wondering if/when the model dailies might start showing something like that

I don't - still - think the Euro is going to win taking a low NW of New England, *IF* the -NAO is western limb oriented. That's physically less likely.. The model will likely not have done that anomalous behavior last night and this morning's cycle, if it didn't wash it's 120 hour range with amplitude like it always does... after which it then has to 'conserve it's own invention' So a little snark there, but heh... no - It can happen, but it's too rare and not likely handled at this range. The NAO is the wild card - it's a fickle beast in the models.

I'm not sure I agree with this statement though, "snow/cold freaks enjoy the negative side of life and outcomes..." In a vacuum I definitely do not; the end of the sentence does not follow logically from the beginning. Otherwise, I have trouble finding a context where this kind of dead-panned assumption of motivation, consigning all, can be true. Some ..in fact, most that I have ever met, Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts alike, are drawn to drama first - not people flying through the air, nor property being shredded off foundations. There is an important distinction between the draw, and taking say ... 'schadenfreude' when observing harm unfold. The draw to drama is entirely ( by the way ...) a survival instinct. For those that do not fixate on specters, tend to succumb to them - eventually.. That draw and fascination for the dystopian cinemas of nature, to wit, the cinema of 'big storm graphics' ... that draw is far in way more having to do with that instinct - but ... people then get a charge out of that excitement and then get addicted ( in a sense... ) and that's a whole 'nother phenomenon... Anyway, much of that is often misconstrued as some form of morality failing. I'm disinclined to agree. The total motivation is nuanced, but just in general here.

Really, if you took the 00z synoptic surface evolution from D5 to 7.5 and just moved it N 70 mi, that's the only difference. It's high stakes. Lot of temp gradient along the mean boundary - does it exit? And if so, where -

Egh ... I was gonna write about it. Even considered a new thread, "Anatomy of a White Christmas," that covers the scaffolding of major atmospheric, mass field modes --> modalities, replete with annotated graphics ...etc. Then, onward to elaborating how those might parlay into better chances to Currier&Ives the appeal of Xmas Eve through Boxing Day then we may think. Alas! Will ( bastard! ) beat me to it. J/k Will.. I mean he's succinctly covered the generality, and why/how the 'correction vector' toward ( what I believe would mean ) less likeliness for a Euro wound up western Ontario low by D7. I just want to offer some more specific insights/observations re the dailies: The differences track back to roughly/beginning D5.5/6, off the 00z runs when comparing the Euro and the GFS operational version ( the GGEM is mid way between so take for what that source is by least regrets. I won't for this exercise.. ) Looking first over Ds 2.5 - 5, the flow construct is, in essence, not significantly different between the two - and for what it is worth .. the means of both ens systems don't urge questioning much either. They have an 'outside slider' type trough curling down the Cali/west Coast, turning E and probably bringing mud slides to the elevations E of San Fernando Valley. From there on the -EPO trough ejects these mechanics into the crucially different morphology. Look over lower Saskatchewan/Manitoba by D6 ... ? By then these models have completely divorced in falling diametrically out of sync with one another. The Euro has a tightly nucleated, deep negative anomaly in that vicinity, amid a negate regional nadir in the height fields. Contrasting, the GFS bifurcates teh flow west of there, with the N component ridging amid those same skies, while said ejected trough coherence cuts underneath toward Chicago... The reason for this difference isn't abundantly clear, but it has meaningful forcing implications heading in Xmas day and the 26th from the Lakes to New England ( and all of this could be move up in time, too, nodding to the antecedent persistent fast flow state that's more of an on-going corrective, endemic hemispheric footprint ). This flow type of the GFS with the trough underneath, is a progressive low-amplitude REX configuration; those typically wrought winter headaches. Despite these significant mid/upper air differences aloft, the Euro surface featuring/version actually is not hugely different than the GFS for east of BUF... certainly ALB as we head toward the 24th. Both version initially maintain a bit of '50/50' low CAA leading, and start overrunning and snowing by dawn on Xmas, but... the Euro then has huge momentum in warm sector push and ends up cold raining and clear to southern NH. But those details are all going to change of course. I suspect if the EPS/GEFs mean, which both show Greenland/-NAO node tending to move S toward the D. Straight region is correct, that is going to offer less support for Lakes transits ( like Will said. ) So I'm precariously close to restating his ... heh.

I’m not sure that matters… People can post it they want to post - unless he/she posts something that’s untrue there’s no argument. People have a choice not to listen.. or read in this case… If they don’t like it block the person. Done. The other aspect is that (so far) his post don’t bother me because they appear to be true. He may be using truth as a weapon but it takes two people to allow that weaponization to exist lol I think also if anybody comes in and has a sentiment that is anathema they get labeled … May be a sensitivity issue in other words I think people just need to get some balls and grow some iron and/or ignore

God I wish I could have that half of football life back. The Patriots were the suckiest suckers that ever sucked!

I just you know honestly I’m only tacitly aware when these troll feuds bubble up so taken fwiw - Maybe I don’t get why he’s being accused of trolling then .

Oh well ur’s was never in scrutiny. Im asking what he’s said that’s not true

Neither have you what im asking

I realize y’all point the troll finger but has he said anything that’s not true tho ?

We tucked here... temps down 2 and wind is N

Same two towns over here in Ayer.. though more PL than ZR. 32 on the button.

I believe it is the northern stream that you really want to pay attention to, folks -

I know what meant but .. not a 'right or wrong' - I was legit asking. I just know it was snowing off and on overnight out in Clinton, which is about 30 mi as the crow flies, west of the city, and the snow was dry and powdery by dawn. Doesn't matter though - I've seen it be 19 F with near white out in Winchester, and 34F with cat paw rain at Logan - dem two locations be like 10 mi apart. But 7am on Xmas morning would have counted - not sure how the disqualifies Xmas if it snows at noon ...on Xmas. Anyway, the synopsis of that day had a coastal snowing at dawn essentially. It's a matter of whether it get to the coast.

Heh... riding the 'Hadley Cell express' means shredding la vida loca !

Keeping in mind, also - ..for the general reader. .... CC is real? Yup... shocker but it is. Unfortunately. And, it has been noted that the curve is more logarithmic than perfectly linear. That means the change is inconsistent/accelerating. How much or less, notwithstanding - Plus, we get into the uncertainty area about "thresholds" and so forth - almost like the natural order 'fights back' ...tries to 'bend but not break' until it has to, then 'clicks' into a new regime. It's like passing through the event horizon of the black hole ( in theory ..), where you don't feel or notice anything of particular differentiation or notice upon going across the boundary, but you can never go back... Obviously, the climate can - but ...metaphors for fun.. The percentages are calculated over 150 years and so forth ... blah blah... BUT the ballast of the years in that sample set obviously took place way back before this CC shit started ( possibly ) invalidating climate signals that are based upon them. It could just be 'on the wrong side of variance' like that, sure. But, it could, dreadful to consider, be that a 'newer climate mode' lowers the chances. In that sense ..

I thought 2017 snowed in Boston? I was in Clinton/MA for that one. Winter storm warning for 6-8" or something middling like that, for Xmas Eve into the morning and it was like Currier&Ives post-card out there at the dawn. It was like ... perfection entree, with a side of perfection - Temp was 27 F with snow mid size aggregates whirling around in 1/2 mi visibility over 7" ... perfectly managed forecast, too. But I dunno - maybe Boston was hung up on the E side of CF or some other least excuse imagined not to get it done -

I've given up ... lol. I mean whether it happens or not, I'm noticing a definitive pattern of modeling behavior that is both eerie, and real: Losing mid/extended range specters, ... objectively plausible ones, too, precisely upon anyone mentioning them ... Almost like the electron double split spooky action at a distance thing. Seriously though, that 22nd/23rd thing has had opportunity to be there but now the PNA s diving again next week, after a couple .. 3 days where it was alleviating some ( at least...). It's a bizarre hemisphere, no doubt - I'd even venture to call it 'rare' in some sense. Though I doubt there are any databases the calculate teleconnector failure regimes, per se. But having a -WPO tending to spill or lap over into the EPO domain, with -30 to -35 C 850 mb thermal sink over the vast expanse of the NW Canadian open tundra ( Euro 00z ), .... FAIL to come south. With -EPO/-NAO, together with the former circumstance, that is a uniquely distinguished telecon forcing breakdown. It's almost flirting with remarkable, actually - Fascinating ... I suppose it would nice to be on the winter storm side of fascinating anomalies, but maybe that was 2015/Feb. But here, not only are those aspects out there by D5-10 ...the Euro gets the 850s above normal to BUF.

Seems on par with expectations... yup - no worries. Considering NWS that is. Here is a product lifted from DVN: ...Resolution doesn't scale up very well with the tools/apps I have installed buuuut, that looks pretty cleanly still like TAN is way way buried on the left side of that probability spectrum. I'd say probably near the cusp of the 0-10% boundary with the entry into the 11-25%... If that is so ( for spell out's sake - ) that's like saying in 100 years, you can have a white Xmas 11 times. Obviously nature is messy and numbers don't return rate at such orderly predictability... but for layman's argument, a scatter distribution of 11 over a Century is roughly once ever 9 years ( 100/11 = 99 plus change...). So, throw in GW (that many either protest/pretends/denies/gets into fume wars if they have to admit..etc, that suffers our latitude like everywhere else) ..that may account for stretching some ... who knows? But either way, it's not stretching expectations too 'unjustly' if thinking about the numbers. It would be nice if we could get a white Xmas every year with an 11% return rate - but that would require some sort of weird alternate reality LOL...