Typhoon Tip

GFS wasn't much better ( 00z)... I've been around a lot of years and have suffered these spring/west Atl cut-offs in varying forms and degrees. They due tend to (unfortunately) evolve when the PNA flips negative, and the westerlies abruptly pull out. That much is consistent with climatology.. But, usually the resulting circulation is deeper than 1010 mb. This is only 1010 mb, yet it takes proxy on the lower troposhere from Main to Florida like that? that's unusual. 1010 located off the lower MA does not typically send long swell and gust winds into Logan. That is the oddity of that 00z outlook. I'd say I am inclined to go with the GGEM for it's subdued, less pervasively scaling ...which seems more consistent with a system that doesn't really have the physical manifold to even drill much of a low to the surface...etc, 'cept that that model sucks donkey ballz. So the one model that seems more sensible is the least useful for that range - great. But the Euro and GFS don't have low much deeper than 1010 either - it's just odd that they menace a E trade component that's almost 1000 naut miles of latitude coming into the EC.

I’m hoping all Mother's Day weekend gets claimed … then, Mem Day 4th of July and Labor Day …

Exactly. And it’s aggravatingly so obviously predictable too, Will Smith setting a precedence for f*ck nut Americana ...

Will Smith’s event now paying off in such wonderful cultural dividends “Dave Chappelle releases first statement about 'unsettling' attack” …I don’t believe this Chappell incident of brazen audience audacity in unrestrained behavior, is completely without Will’s example to follow.

Unlikely … bearing in mind that nighttime lows have owned the ballast of positive anomalies in recent decadal era, that is physically caused by elevated ambient dew points - which is a concomitant aspect of CC … ( warming results in increased evaporation —> elevating WV, predicted by climate models and observably bearing out ) Heh. It’s analogous to institutional humidity. Lol. It’s built in, in other words and quite likely that miasma is the new paradigm. Unless we cap frequently … in which yeah … it may not rain much but the heat over 75 dps’ll be relentless. Not sure that kind of dry folks have in mind? Dont think it’ll be a Kansas summer tho.

Oh ur f’ed good and proper down there. All do sympathies.

Actually ...Sunday might not turn out too bad if the GFS is right. I haven't really been looking at the weekend - I just assumed it was 86'ed with the NAO still trying to block and that thing going under... But the Euro is decidedly piece of shittier than the GFS lol. GFS appears that Saturday morning's about as close as that gets, CT-RI wet...and then by evening it's descended S... High clouds probably Sunday There'll be an east wind but the gradient is light, the llv RH is 50% or less so it's dry at least. Cool. Shitty but a little less stench.

Let's see if we can go for 2 years in a row of all warm season holidays having 0 redemption across the board.... Mother's day, 2022 kicks of the shit showing... Next up on the eerily metaphysical attack is Mem Day... lol

Then consider yourself in a charmed existence ... The entire planet in fact, happens to be captive audience to a slow moving environmental holocaust because of climate changing too fast for too many adaptation rates to maintain a stable, healthy biosphere... Is that soon enough ?? Haha lol... I know what you mean, but I found the statement ironic. Tomorrow will be 70 to 73 accompanied by caressing zephyrs, while a very warm May sun 'summerizes' the affair.

Right ... as miserable soul sucking demoralizing as this fun killer weather is ... it's really farmer's gold for lawn care. Grasses love this salad shit. My lawn inspires the appetite it's so deliciously green. It's like everything not to wanna head out there with Italian dressing and oregano

In any case ... it's more likely that oddity would 'delay,' rather than enforcing a missed warm-up, anyway. The telecon spread signals a warm 'mid month' - that's a bit longer than just D6-7-8, first of all. But these operational runs, GGEM and GFS have susbtantial ridging continuing right through D10. It seems to be growing more likely that above normal's going to happen.

I wouldn't trust the GFS run... It's almost like NOAA's modelers deliberately parameterized the thing to punch holes in ridges... Kidding... but that's an excessive looking feed-back scenario there. There's likely to be something whirling there but not that spatially owned. One thing I am also noticing over the last several runs... several days worth, is the handling of this little critter S/W that's almost nondescriptly sneaking in, as the D(NAO) is flipping signs... If you toggle/loop.... that little gnat of an innocuous feature gets dumped in. GFS has been stubborn about that subtle momentum getting tossed backward... The Euro was kind of onto that sort of subtle/insidious stream addition too, as of last night's run. We'll have to see... I believe a weakness if not a cut-off contour. The +D(NAO) is quite rapid in execution, and whatever happens to be in the flow there is likely to be ambered in once the westerlies lift out. But the propensity for the outer mid range/extended to magnify/enhance in that range, leaves me somewhat skeptical of that gutted ridge look.

I don't like personally running in the cold either... I mean, I hear others that run, some regularly gush about 50s being ideal - uh...really? I like it about 66 to 72. Sweat kicks in by mile two, and then that's plenty of cooling through evaporation to not get too hot. Above that... yeah, if it's very sunny and still air, ...open terrain with no shade, that goes the other way. 80 F is too warm for example. But I have... I once ran in 89 F because the gym was closed and needed to get my 5 miles in. Oh man - I think it took two days to shake that weird feeling that it left behind. I was pie -eyed when I came down my street and set to walking it off, but had to get to the sink for cold water on the neck. I think I borderline overheated. But less than about 65 is doable but for every degree down, ... by the low 50s? I've spent too much time up front getting lithe and lubed by my own body heat... Then the run's over. Don't feel like I even sweat enough because of it. I even think the next day something is arguing and achy for doing it more so. Cold sucks. It pulls the will out of you. And putting up those tepid times like you described doesn't surprise me. But everyone's got their range. For some... running in cold is preferred.

Hopefully these NAM metrics are right about tomorrow. Should be nearing 70 by 21Z ... if not 72, with light NW wind, very little cloud contamination. Purified post frontal air mass too. It's one of these 'warmer after the cold front' deals. Helped along by d-slope flow, and the fact that the actual amount of cold advection behind the front is too weak to offset the May sun. Nice! Anyway, could be a couple of hammock hours tomorrow mid- late afternoon. It would be starkly contrasting to that misty murk out there today...

It's odd seeing the GFS get the adiabatic temperatures all the way to (ave) 86 next Thursday across the breadth of the area ... when the model had been fighting off this warm signal at least excuse imagined - reversed with the Euro, which now challenges whether the deeper warmth gets in here because of it's oblong/stalled surface high parked due E of Logan's latitude like that. That thing would drill CCB clear to Albany ... (hyperbole but yeah-) The 06z's, 18z GFS 2-meter vision for next Thursday is probably 92. I don't know why those products label "2-meter temperatures," when it is abundantly clear that maps are limited to the linear adiabats. They don't/probably can't calc the bottom 100 meters of the sounding where it slopes log to the right like a knife blade nearing the surface(s), where the 2-meter actually is! Friday back doors badly .. not sure folks are seeing that? But... f if it's 8 days out.. probably won't exist Actually all these details are almost useless... heh. I mean this signal is still emerging/evolving in the runs. I'm not even sure how much of that cut -off momentum is really true.. Talking 7 days away. If that's weaker (say), then it acts less like an inverted block, and that high settles S-SE of our latitudes faster. We get more robust heat in here sooner - cannot be precluded at this range. Telecons favor a warm anomaly over eastern N/A; we are still where we were 4 or 5 days ago when I mentioned that warmer solutions should begin to emerge.

Why are people seemingly compelled to make this comparison all the time, "...If this were winter -" Silly ... childlike might be apropos. Don't get me wrong, I also think a lot of adults in the world could use a little 'child,' but as a metaphor for keeping an optimistic vigil, ..willingness to be open minded, see the fun..etc. But in the former context, as it pertains to qualitative observation of model cinematics ... it's unsophisticated. A slow moving non-synoptic thunderstorm drops 3" of rain over a freak hour, and it's, "If that happened in winter -" Let's ask the question: 'When was the last time there was a slow moving non-synoptic thunderstorm in winter ?' It seems to me, the physics of the leading environments, winter vs [not winter], are intrinsically different; such that the emergence of anything would have to also be physically, intrinsically different. Apples vs oranges... There is almost no meaningfulness in drafting the comparison... People should just say what is really on their mind: 'God, what I'd give to see 30" of snow in under an hour with vivid lightning and 70 mph outflow gust front...with a dangling wall cloud near the right-rear flank..." etc etc... Because that's got sooo much possibility of actually happening out here the reality of space-time-Earth continuum's menagerie of events. That suppressed wave over the M/A wouldn't exist if this were January, because the N stream would be rolling along, governed by Rosby scaled forcing that doesn't exist now. I guess to be fair and machine like ... yeah okay, there have been suppressed MA events that didn't involve SNE - in a vacuum, that statement is true. But at that point it also just becomes arbitrary.

Not yet. It may evolve to be a “furnace” but as of right now, it needs work. Heights are not enough. You have to look at the sfc features too. Deep warm air has trouble getting in here until the weekend.

That Euro run was wonky lookin'... That giant broad thing - I suspect ... - is the process of filling in the guidance, et al. I could swear, this happened prior to last May's NW NE heat event ( Or was that in 2020. I think it was 2020 now.. hm..) Anyway, the D9 had a cut off along the MA and it never really materialized. A weakness in the under side of the ridge instead, with S/SE inflow keeping DCA colder than BTV ... It was a 79 down there when it was 96 in BTV...or something like that. This strikes me as a similar deal

Oooh k haha ...millions and millions of dollars on the line never inspired a fix, huh? I know just bustin' ballz... but I honestly did wonder why there were so Dr. Jeckle/Mr hyde like that - who wouldn't that cares about the game. So I had that sarcastic excuse rollin' around in head ... long before the opportunity availed to snark it out in the open - which you so graciously provided. Thanks dude!

Because to the key to not getting caught cheating is to not do it all the time.

Clearing from the east

Jimmy Hoffa

Thursday trying to sneak into the top 10 .... I qualify that utopia last Sunday in that recognition, with 73 high, zip wind under 99.9% purity skies. Not sure we'll do quite that, but the NAM's grid has Logan's 18z at 310 degress/10 mph, and bone dry sigma level RH's, with 850 mb +6 ... That all looks like 3pm 71 with barely noticeable wind under mostly sunny.

It's kind of an unusual pattern this late in the year. Trough west, ridge east, manifesting over a -PNA footprint. That's not exactly a wild anomaly in and of its self, but the power of the Pac jet is hidden. The westerlies persisting with momentum across the N. Pacific. It may deliver a series of rain/ elevation snow to California and other western regions in what's become a multi-decadal hydro crisis, but doing so in May - usually they're going the other way, seasonally. Meanwhile, we warm back east - the extent of which is vague at this range. This is all still D 7 to 10

`Heh...it's aight. Yeah, coulda summed it up in one sentence a pop but rubbing the shit in has it's own rewards.