Typhoon Tip

Back on pg 91 a wrote this massive… … And basically it seems like nothings changed. The models are still trying to sort out which system …no clue which or what is going to be dominant or significant enough, through that period of time roughly the 18th through the end of the month – which they get a pass because we’re still talking about extended leads. Just sayn.

I can’t believe those people are so willing to go across that bridge

oh Forgot to circle back ..I realized that but ended up pulled off to actually working ..heh

tries to sustain 12 hrs of bona fide blizzard headline ...

wow, the 12z GGEM took that 00z run and made it even more dramatic looking ... Somewhere, there is a man putting down 100,000$ on NYJ to win the Superbowl

I know what this is... The GFS still possess an ever so much but crucial inaccuracy in handling the BL thermodynamics of saturation - a product heredity that kicked in a handful of "upgrades" ago... I suspect that is why it is not seeing/assessing the BL resistance of interior SNE/SE NY and the eastern Capital District of NYS as having upper 20s DP in near or at saturation, and instead, drills the temp/dp combo to something like 40/35 while the light to moderate ordeal plays out through the weekend. I would not trust the GFS in this situation. Both it, and the Euro never move the antecedent front back N into CT-RI, and once that sets up ... and assuming the Euro handles the BL more precisely...sorry - The GGEM ...not sure how to account for that - it could be arriving at it's layouts through different means/local biases ( or not..) but, it does, just cursory, looks like it doesn't lay out as much antecedent +PP into central/NNE... prior to arrival, so it whether or not it is handling the BL resistance or not, it never has a chance to test that because it's about 4 ... 6 mb lower in ambient PP compared to Euro. That's where I am leaning as of this hour - less weight on the GFS's hydgroscopic thermodynamics, in lieu of more accuracy handling that in the Euro ...and possible BL resistance feedbacks. Should the Euro arrive with less lead +PP, then I lean away.. That would be situation where the earlier runs of the GFS were right for the wrong reasons though -

There's some false infamy thrown at it, lately, too. When a model is always superior, separated from the pact and peerless, a bad performance or two creates this disproportionate gravitas, and just like in human parlance ..it is unjust - because people were pining all along in a coveted head-space, to see the celebrating taken down. Haha. we do this in our culture with people, to... The more a famous and popular and good-looking the transcendence's intangible mystique is, watch out should that individual f'up and be human even once. Discarded ... usually, they're dropped, fading to irrelevancy; but then some may resurface a decade later with new understated draw and gain popularity back slow cooked. Anyway, the Euro's been shakier that last 18 or so months... given - but shakier is still better than all other guidance by empirical measure. I was just mentioning yesterday, that model bested the GFS ghost nor'easter it kept selling ... run after ran after run, earlier in the month. There were threads started for what ultimately worthwhiled to dim sun cirrus, because the striking consistency of the GFS grew too difficult to ignore ... if perhaps resist. The Euro might have had it once or twice at D9..but it dropped it really pretty early, stayed the course, and silently won that debacle by a pretty bad looking pantsing - That, and... D5's - boy have expectations changed over the years, huh? I mean, I remember back in 1992 ...97 like it was yesterday, and nothing had any rights on that day anyway. funny -

Conflicting schools on the Saturday thing ... Firstly, glad to see folks coming around to giving it attention - mentioned this yesterday... that had an icy look, albeit below mid impact, for the interior, with similar snow implications to S VT/NH... and here we are with the models converging on the climate/experience, therefrom. That said, you know ...advisory? But there is interesting aspect below: Deterministic philosophy on a meaningless event, by Jack Handy lol: The conflicts are less whether there will be a flat wave rolling thru. I think even the confidence of it forced S and staying < ALB-BOS latitude, is also > 50%. The conflicts are this business about over-assessment of mechanical power by the models in the mid/ext ranges, vs. systems seem to over perform QPF relative to modeling after the fact. Those two are offsets... It's like the system verifies weaker, but then drops 30" of snow from a (sarcastic) cumulus cloud As to the former, the models are consummately having to shed a goodly amount of there prior systemic 'might,' as the forecast interval in question comes inside of 120 hours. Here we are on the cusp at ...108 or so. I'd like to see this be consistent particularly at hour 72, or I don't put Scott's snark re shred fest more inside the realm of possible results. I don't know what causes the constant inflating of features out there in time, but it is a fairly consistently observable model error/biasing for me. My suspicious is that the flow is having to be sped up, and that stretches things and starts attenuating fields...etc... complex. I don't know... that said, I've also seen flat waves just over-perform because one or two synoptic/mechanical aspects are on roids. That one or two parametrics overwhelm a total system profile that looks less than pedestrian at first glance... Kind of Lance Bozartian and the "Lil' critters that bite" ...

First thing I've seen in 18 hours ... greets me with perfection. At least the day started the day off right! This is the Dec 21 00z GGEM solution... for 180 hours, as I am sure by now this is passe' with this particular crew of carpet surfers haha. But, I did notice the page count upped a bit over night - hmm... intriguing. That's a 20" er with winds going bonkers on exit type of NJ Model bomb you read about in fiction ... only an ode to dreams.

The thing about that 21/22nd system of great eye appeal is that the GFS just served us a ghoster earlier this month - lest we forget. Remember - The Euro never had it... The GFS, insistent spanning two or three consecutive days, pummeled us with a solid mid grade warning level snow storm/nor'easter ... waiting until 72 hours out to finally nod to the Euro taking too far SE to matter - and weaker, too. This looks eerily similar to me. Although the teleconnector footprint seems better this time, go - yeah.. Focus on the Saturday thing first.

This is an impressive Hemisphere ... every cycle I've seen over the last ...5 or 6 back-to-back, has edged more impressive in the general large scale frame-up ... https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefs&p=500h_anom&rh=2021121312&fh=204&r=nh&dpdt=&mc= And, we see on the 22nd there is a mean negative tilt high power trough lifting along NE Coast... Probably don't have to look; foregone conclusion there are several individual members toting along a significant event there.

course... I hadn't seen the 12z Euro ... but it doesn't change the deterministic status ... for now.

I guess it depends what one means by "game" ... Even relative to 5 days out mm...a minoring wintry profiled scenario is on the table to N CT/RI... That's a suppress b-clinic open wave that's putting down icing/mix in the interior from what i'm looking at... probably light snow in southern VT. Lest we forget, cold exertion in the bl/ageo forcing is routinely underestimated, even in higher resolution reputable guidance types - which frankly ..this latter has been rattled in confidence lately anyway.

Focus is on the bigger ticket 'plausibility' out there around the 22nd but the foreground event over the weekened ( centered on 144 or so hours ...) is worth considering ... probably lower significance? sure, but I think that's advisory icing in the interior ending with grits and flurries, with low snow/mix tots in southern VT/NH. The air mass ahead is new post fropa. Altho not excessively cold/dry by any stretch, pressures are rising through NNE - that tends to lead to more ageostrophic/925 mb N llv flow in the interior central/southern NE regions - probably feeding in lower DP. Minor situation overall, but one that looks like a smoking gun for under-estimating hygroscopic cooling. SO, with weaker WAA associated with that flat baroclinic bulge rippling by underneath, it "appears" from this range/blend, to be the right ratio wrt to not overwhelming the llv cold.. Probably some modest frontogenic tendencies over top, too. The thing with the 22nd, ... to me, most GEF individual members carry an event from the TV up the or E of the App spine, and transfer some sort of Miller A/ B hybrid. Obviously the 06z was an impressive 20 mb calving in 12 hours absurdity or whatever Kleenex and magazine that was. It was an outlier... Agree with Will.. the general flow scaffold from 100 W to Greenland provides the 'needle thread' ... it is noted that GGEM dropped the system altogether. The Euro actually had that thing 3 days ago as a historic bomb cutting straight across ...which we rightfully 86 that silliness. But, the 00z run ..as far as I can tell, doesn't even have it. It also looks to have fallen out of sync with it's own ensemble mean. All the while, the hemisphere seems poised to click cogs into a -(wpo;epo) couplet up there, with the NAO probably doing it's thing as a transitive/non-linear large scale wave forcing - in other words... it magnitude and placement is wildly uncertain. Bottom line, vastly too early to be specific about the 22nd.

Yup yup some vestigial compression there … but I’d be willing to hedge the totality wins there. It’d keep things moving along but from orbit that’s cold ptype events verifying STL-PWN while the construct lasts.

Yeah I mean considering margins for error that’s already likely getting it done … we’ve ended up just fine in the past heading into less impressive looks.

Haven’t seen the individual members but that look argues several members likely carry along significant event from the nadir of that trough to NF

That look supports a seasonal arctic/polar hybrid air strike along the NP -NE axis

18z GEFs mean sweetening the deal …

alright - who's high on everyone's shit list now ...

Euro trended N from 00z with that 18/19th system, tho. That said, I suspect it is too amped regardless... It's applying that spontaneous energizing thing it does when D5--> 6 relay, where everything its carrying along thru day 5 gets a boost ... like a participation trophy for being on the charts at all... But there are two different biases in play. One, models et al having to scale back deep mid/ext range systems to saneness as they get closer in time. That's a whole 'nother annoyance. The 2nd one is the Euro has to do that, anyway - ...it's always done that.

GEFs made a significant adjustment approaching D10 ... looks much more 00z EPS like ... Strong -(wpo; epo) regime approaches the Alaska sector. This three wave pattern looks rather stable, too -

mm Still yet another valid convention/destiny with that, tho. The -EPO on top of a -PNA changes the map a little. And, although a little, those nuanced scale differences can mean huge sensible impacts along various climate zones. Like ...( most know this, but - ), but if we flood cold into Canada off the -EPO loading pattern ( and to wit, this one really is outright modeled to actually do that in both major clusters ...), and then the -PNA drills Pacific flow across the continent, S of 40 N, that can lead all kinds of winter storm problems, regardless of the exact phase state of the PNA. Blah blah, but events are more overrunning and sheared along steeper inversion as the storm profiles. Folks tend to look for the idealized set ups. Like the coveted -PNA --> + PNA modal switch that leads to grandpa's Archembault coastal - heh. But -EPO with -PNA can result in positive tilted mean L/Ws that situate road SW flow at mid levels from NM to MN ... with flat waves running along the cold-thickness gradient underneath, each capable of moderate mixed QPF events. If this were no -EPO ..I wouldn't be posting this. But seeing and knowing that looms pretty solidly in both continuity and cross-guidance clustering, I'm inclined to believe that the actual lower tropospheric baroclinic axis ( Dec 20 to Jan 7 or so...) may in fact end up S of the mid level flow.

The dailies of the 00z operational models ...wow, was that a fantastically active pattern out there post Thursday's correction front... I don't buy the model's being successful at loading 45 to 50 N across N/A with sub 534 dam non-hydrostatic heights, and then undulating mass fields along and S of there in order to penetrate 558 dam hydrostatic heights so wildly around mere 18 to 30 hour periodicities... Nope - Fyi - Hydro' vs non-hydrostatic heights are two different atmospheric height metrics: one integrates theta-e into the column, the other doesn't. Since it takes energy to evaporate water into gaseous form ... that is why thickness (hydro') will always be lower than the geopotential heights (non-hydro') - ingesting water into the column takes the gravitational potential energy to do it. Gravitational potential energy is a fancy physics phrase that just means how far your brains splat away from your skull when you fall from that elevation. The more, the higher the starting point...etc... But in this day-and-age of attention span I'm sure I've already lost the reader in that digression. Anyway, I think it is more likely that weaker embedded wave mechanics in stream(s) will modulate the flow synoptics more realistically along shallower N-S variance. That means ... less amplitude. The first most guilty of that above is the Euro - toss that run. That said, there is definitely in my perspective, an early coalescent notion for a Dec 22nd system. As mentioned yesterday ...the entire period nearing the Solstice and then extending ... probably out to the end of the month or even turning the page, appears more baroclinically charged in mean of that period. If the 22nd bears holiday fruit, it may not be the only Xmas cake in the mix.

That's similar to my d(t)/d(T) ... I had 39 rocket to 57 in somewhere between 15 and 20 min. Nashoba Valley, where Ayer resides, does this though. It whips out like everywhere else but because of the geographic nadir, it kind of holds the coldest until it can't and scours out dramatically like that. 61 now