Typhoon Tip

Nah, I think we inch to 69 here and bust MOS already. The gradient is crucially, already weakened enough. I don't see a sea-breeze getting the 3-km's western extension by 18z, today. Not sure where that comes from tomorrow. Maybe I am missing - is there a cold pulse coming ?? By extension and form, that looks an over done sea-breeze intrusion. Not sure why tomorrow would be worse than today - but maybe... I dunno.

Heh... I don't think keeping CT that cold is going to work out too well if the Euro and GFS are indicating that Those models are not likely correct if they are, unless we alter the synoptics. The MEX numbers - btw - are warm fwiw. But the former pretty clearly signal the gradient weakens ( first ...), then tends to go offshore ( 2nd), then definitely commits to doing so. Granted, taking 3 days to totally transition but by Thursday ... we're likely 80 in HFD.

I dunno about the 'chipper' part ... but I agree with the latter reasoning in general. The thing is, there's two separate mechanics in play, too. If the gradient lessens enough ...the seabreeze takes over and penetrates farther inland. If the gradient stays stronger and focuses ...it'll depend ( again ) whether that is more N or E in the NE manifold. Kind of confusing a little. I just posted about that a few moments ago, how it it really may depend on where the NNE vs the ENE axis ends up... It's almost like coastal frontal tendency...despite all other synoptic metrics not typically being involved for/when considering the presence of one. Interesting in that sense... Anyway, more NNE is a warm trajectory in this weirdly inverted synoptic setting... It's over top warmth as we know blah blah. But 850s to 925 mixing depth temperatures/adiabats already supporting those 70s you mention. Which taking place underneath full 100% solar max equiv radiation dump-in? If the wind stays N at FIT, we bust the MEX machine numbers by a few. Hell, it's 67 here in Ayer, mid way between FIT and ASH, ...already surpassing the the NAM's previous fixes for the high.

I'm thinking if the wind direction can stay N more than E, in the "NE" aspect ... would machine guidance bust too cold by a few this afternoon. More N has the advantage of being less cold ocean modulated ... but also is d-slope trajectory. If the wind bends E biased tho, we'll cap lower. That's the thinking anyway - This pattern is 'over top' heat. Given just a little offshore tendency .. the 850s/925 support mid 70s under full unadulterated May sun and non oceanic interference. Later in the week, the moment the flow commits to offshore more fully we'll soar.

Other than our region of the planet just having a static, significant handicap given any 'set up' ...always, the other obvious issue when synoptically overcoming limitations then is our topographic layout. One can't really see more than a few short miles in any direction, before bucolic tree lines, nestled betwixt hills, obscure CB bases entirely. Comparsing the same effort in OK, KS, IA ..TX...even IL/IN/MI/OH...etc, you can see the full profiles some 50 miles away. Around here? I've seen mid level turrets that look suspiciously rotated... Got all lubed up with excitement and weirnered my way over the hills through densely wooded roads 10 or 15 minutes, climbing elevation toward known vantage places ... finally busting out onto a ridge line, only to same-old-same-old see that the organized inflow has no hope of extension/touching down because the MESO won't penetrate the serrated Ekman boundary layer around here. I mean the inflow channels can't organized below 2,000 kt. Of course they do from rare time to time... lol, just as Great Barrington or Worcester or Monson ...etc... But by an large, we have bottom third of CB disruption - in the world of convection, we are the wheelchair crowd. We've had the following conversation before but ...you're young bro. Get out while you are young enough to adapt to life changes easier/less overhead. You start getting seriously lade and it's over - usually... But you can relo with a new/young Met degree out there and start working adjunct to the "severe weather industry" and you gotta think with a minimal creativity you can find/access those opportunities, because I can assure you... of all geographical areas of this world, that region of the country DEFINITELY has an a-to zinc industry aspect, from information all the way to building science, which is an immense spectrum. Not sure what your reason for staying is... I'm sure you have it. Not intending to get into that/counsel on the matter... Just sayn'... F, man go to grad school out there.

mm ... we're also noticing that over the course-work of your posting this CAPE product ... the west [frontage] is outpacing the eastern advance. If that tendency continues... it times out such that we'll end up celebrating 2 hrs of substantive CAPE [probably] limited to CT granted, but by then perhaps too brief to matter. Ultimately ... the entire effort destined to end up like a climate ass waxing - ...thanks for playing the psychosis for convection in New England mind f* game. How we enjoyed the journey -

Lol, depends what one means by 'horizon' ... if by distinction of time, that may be so. But by distinction of geography and space, it looks wet on the N-W-S horizons.

I'm inclined to think so as well. It seems with the sun finally unabated the rest of the week, we'll stow enough day time energy to out last the shorter nights - plus the llv fresh arctic fart machine is slowly winding down. But the 'radiation battery' is fully charging without that high clouds. Such that a clear night will bleed down 'the charge' but because there is so much quota going in, and the nights are shorter, it's harder for decoupled layers to really crater. At the other end of this week.. we're not seeing synoptics capable of offsetting the 'black body radiation' ... BTU/HR = stephan B constant, times a bunch of other hieroglyphics... I think the last couple of days 'cheated' to get there... We had this miasma of high clouds not enough to cap radiation and elevate temps at night, but sure as shit enough to dim the sun. Add in daily diet of parched dry air sourcing out of that weird high pressure, ..it just was a perfect tulip wilter.

I don't have a problem with those sort of findings - in fact, they don't surprise me, really. I've carried on with the mantra for years re the personally observed faster-than-normal troposphere - particularly during the cold season/book-ends of the cold seasons. If not in the 'appeal', outright presentation of the base-line atmospheric behavior,' now spanning 10 years... has biased fast. It's not like there is a lack of suggestive/empirical evidence. Albeit indirect, the "propensity" ( propulsion - see what I did there ..heh), for commercial airlines to set air-land-relative speed records on flights moving W to E across the oceanic basins, being an example of this. Witnessing S/Ws arrive over Washington/Oregon, stem wind a cyclone over PA, barely giving it enough time to secondary before the entire busted ravioli smears off the chart leaving Maine - all in a mere 72 to 84 hours. It may all be anecdotal, but given to the backing observations being real ... it's powerful circumstantial evidence. The atmosphere has sped up. Seldom do we see a relaxed gradient middle winter, anyway. However, in recent (decade/ 'since 2000'), this appears surplussed more at times.. Progressive S/W wave translations through a field that in its self has trouble finding stable R-wave structures before they are forced to modulate. Storms with more rapid cyclogenesis, having briefer residence in any one location. Storms cut-off, the most intense ones.. they may move slowly. I have not seen a cyclone really "stall" in years. Subtler fuzzy metric. The events in the atmosphere are ultimately conveyed along by the vagaries of the wind; eventually ...any hurrying in doing so might realize in the surface as well? Now ...there's still a ginormous mathematical/physical gap that join the observation of a faster than normal westerlies, between the 700 and 300 mb levels, with the unrelenting butt bang NE "trade wind" hosing New England... But just from an educated conjectural view point, the ends prooobably geo-physically meet there.

for 4 ..5 days before the next Rosby roll-out occurs, heralding in another grapply shower fest to the hills with CAA blown open cu shrouding over valleys...

Notable changes in the remaining/belated tree types ... all have now swelled buds or cracking into flowers. just literally the last 24 hours

Yup ... 63 here in Ayer. Wind is NE but technically a land direction here so helping.

This feels if not looks like a Canadian spring, somewhere mid Ontario latitudes. Laboring to green out until a mere month from solstice intensity sun? It's eating into the warm season ( while the planet's destined to put up the 3rd or 5th warmest May in history, no doubt!)

Kind of like maximizing the most disappointing condition while remain entirely unremarkable.

Is that what we’re calling it -

Oaks flowering astride 495 in NE Mass … just not west of there in interior towns and bucolic tree lines. That argues temperature dependency of some kind.

And I don't even like running in this shit.

This is quite the jet anomaly for so late in the year... Fast flow is like the new Earth-paradigm. Jesus christ

maybe even 'wind chill' how that happens... Sap starts dripping from twig ends on some species in early March. We used to collect 'sapsicles' ... I wonder if the windier than normal conditions/CAA transports is key in that, because evaporation off the sprout points - dry air cooling.

As good as any reason I've heard, yeah. I did consider that but I don't - personally - know how these above ground leafers know. How do they detected DP?

you like hard freezes in May ? Lol - ... I know. Not sure about up where you are... but down here what's likely happen is a 24 hour abrupt rebound when this unrelenting NE trade flow finally collapses. Maybe late tomorrow for you, early Wed in NYC ...est. But the stymieing to rise has less transition time, sort of right to tower temperatures in lockstep with the cold feed abatement. Machine guidance will undersell the rebound when the gradient falls to 0 and/or zephyrs in reverse.

Cool - definitely ... interesting study!

The Norwalks maples did flower around town about 2 weeks ago.. But they are in no hurry to unfurl actual leafs and the flowers are still in suspended bouquet. It's a wonder what drives this ... Average April temperatures, or even above by decimals ..., neither lends to 'behind schedule' canopy. I suspect - no proof... - that the nights being elevated ... sorta like "lied" about the what's been going on. I wonder if the day time cold blustery aspect some how slammed things shut. It's all conjecture for me. Botany's not my thing

Not here ... I admit to wondering this just about every spring ( haha) - whether the leaf out is late and all that jazz. But this year? No question - no wondering about it. The larger trunk types, like sugar maple and oaks. and other major player tree species have almost nil bud swell. I DEFINITELY have never seen us enter the 2nd week of May, with those tree types still dormant.

It just seems ( straw man ) like the warm up for the end of the week has been abused by the models. They keep manifesting new reasons to limit the residence of the general ridge appeal. The latest renditions have included BDs Thursday ... which, one cannot argue really against given the local climate. But within a run or two, that's backed off and we see less of that. Can't leave well-enough alone, though ...now, the models are bullying in a rapid flip of the -PNA (the oper's have been struggling to avoid all along) right back into a +PNAP. It's sort of a new forcing but between this front side oddity collapsing S down the MA ... taking ages to do so and gobbling up time, and that new aspect in the extended, this warm up we've been waiting for is really not far from being taxed down to a mere daily warm sector.