Typhoon Tip

Yeah no … I guess it just effects people in different ways. Bottom line I don’t miss it and generally feeling and most importantly being better, are the barometer.

Heh. Thanks but fuller disclosure … I didn’t have liver issues. I was getting physicals thru that era and blood work never reflected that.

I wonder if there's ever been a teleconnection calculated using the circulation mode over Japan ...around the world? That'd be cool, heh. There's are little known rule of thumbs out there. Like, tornadoes in Michigan tend to offend New England 24 hrs later. Or troughs over eastern N/A tend to correlate with troughs of western Europe. I can imagine these types of concurrency are more related to geometry/R-wave distribution. And if so, wonder how far that extends. There's obviously an Indian Ocean telecon with the -NAO... so - good post though. You should chat with Weatherwiz - another Met that bops around the forum. He was all over the Asian feed and needing that to change the relay into the Pacific. I think he even said words to the affect ( or is 'e'ffect) of, ' ...won't see a real change until that happens'. Maybe this is it? I happened to agree with him. Part of the reason for the MJO stall in 7 is that the wave is having mechanical trouble propagating out of the Marine district, ...I suspect the reason for that stall may very well be because given the west Pacific torque model as it is dispersing off eastern Asia, it may be suppressing/ destructive wave interference. CPC's been blaming it on the La Nina footprint of the hemisphere; they may be entirely right. But I have my doubts whether that part of it is the 'cause' vs more coincidence. The last several ENSO events have performed poorly in coupling to the hemisphere base-line circulation, so suddenly this one is? Okay. Personally, ...I discussed that apparent breakdown over the last years, and that I thought this year would pass the hemisphere in and out of La Nina; ha, if I'm going to be right about that, now might be a good time for your +EAMT to get real. Maybe the MJO then starts propagating into 8 and beyond, if/when that happens.. .There are more individual members on the RMM that appear to curl.. .and I also noticed the operational GFS and Euro version began yesterday, rolling SPV saws through lower Canada - yeah...something could be brewing along the lines of pattern/wave# change.

Funny thing ..it doesn't seem like an ice "threat" to me... Not sure I see a strong enough ageo wind to really offset the conduction temperature of the rain. It's falling through +5 C at 900 mb level...That's pretty fantastically mild not far off the deck. Plus, any marginal icing that gets going utilizing low level initial 30 F, if there's only light drain the latent heat of phase change will have it 32. I wouldn't suggest no ice at all.. Just that it would be like that thing the other day. With some glaze mottling on the car windows, then it's 32.3. Maybe that's all we're talking about. I mean, it'd be weird variant on the "white Xmas" theme to have icicles dangling from power lines and some modest sag on trees and shrubs - love to see it - if we can manage that without losing power, heh. The novelty of ice runs out on me in about 4.8 seconds aft of the lights and white noise of the household going abruptly crypt quite. Obviously this wouldn't likely add up to that, anyway .. just sayin'. Not a huge fan of ice "storms" ... Icing? - sure. Keep the power on though.

I found this beer .. small brewery out of Kansas City - well ...may be bigger now, or no longer exist, not sure. They were called "Sixth Glass." They made this amazing 10.4% potent IPA that had an almost creamy sort of velvety finish to it. It was amazing. It went well with just about any meal, or just nursing during the game - multi utility, and yes... given to the 10.4%, you really only need a couple of them. If downed on an empty stomach, perhaps only one. Amazing beer. Now ... personally, I haven't drank any alcohol in 7 years - despite the marketing pitch above. Ha. But I had to make the conscience choice for better over worse. I wasn't an alcoholic .. .at least I don't think? But, I did at the time feel I was engaging in life style that was not healthy, too often. The proof of that, I was beginning to manifest physical oddities that I don't care to delve into -LOL. Anyway, since stopping, all vitals are vastly improved and I weigh like 180 .. .Turns out, I'm actually a tall slender bloke - not that barrel chested after all. Probably TMI but ...I guess one doesn't always know when a lifestyle is creeping into a dangerous territory. It can be a very gradual process, where one's body adapts over time; meanwhile, the adaptation is muting the sensation of the erosion going on - then there you are ... hosting an uneasy conversation with a doctor...etc. I mean, I wasn't even getting much in the way of hang-overs like ever... Yet I could put away a bottle of wine and one of those IPA's above every night. Go to work fine the next morning... fine. Gradually got to that state over years. So, I suppose I needed the change at the time - duh. But it went painless for me. No withdrawal bullshit or cravings. Nothing. Stopped one night on a dime and never went back... I really only missed the cigars I used to have along with - that's really a nice combination. Really soothing. Tie one one then spark up a blunt... My god, can't believe I used to engage like that. Now? I work out every day crazy -like. I run 10K, then bike 24 miles the next day, then do an hour on the full press Elliptical, and weight train every other work out. Eat organic, high in fruit and veggies. Lots of water. Sleep regular...basically, no life. But hey, I feel topico!

Lol ...I here ya, but I'm into Meteorology scientifically too - not just the experience... I mean I'm not trying to gas-light by saying that - it's just the reason why I bother. That said (and all empathy conferred), I'm not so sure that it ends up rain either. I mean, let's just make it clear; it's less likely to happen the way the GFS. But, suppose the less odds won, it could correct S to atone the -NAO suppression. I also just pointed out...I don't think the Euro is "partly cloudy" ...? That much wind max tunneling under our latitude is likely to induce some light if not middling frontogenic response on the polar side of the wind max axis. The bending of the PP is a tall-tail sign/convergence for there being lift going on overtop... I think that could verify more cloud with mood in the air. The Euro is 33 at 12z in the interior, then 40 in the aftenroon as is, but if correcting - those are colder. The Euro could be exactly right, as is, .. no modulation necessary.. But it's differentiated it's surface evolution compared to the 00z, so it's not like it's putting on a great show in the parade of solutions here. It can be modified around it's essence.

Actually ... doing a model comparison, interval to interval, between GFS and GGEM. The differences really appear to be in the complex stream mechanical handling over the Rockies ~ 48 hours, then notably so over the ~ Chicago longitudes/latitudes. That is where the two begin divergence with surface implications. The GFS has the Xmas S/W/ .. vestige, in the process of shearing out over the eastern Ohio Valley, while it has a flat wave with an impressive wind max over the eastern Plains/Iowa region. The GFS appears to phase this latter S/W into the remnants of the lead; altho remnant as it is, it is enough to positive interfere along a narrow corridor, and we end up with a more impressive/evolved total cyclonic response over and leaving NE. It would likely snow meaningfully for 4 hours of something from RUT-Brian ...maybe down to MHT, NH and PWM. It's not an altogether climate friendly total evolution - it would be anomaly. But I find it if nothing else, interesting that if one hovers their mouse-pointer, over "Prev. Run" ( c/o Tropical Tidbits) and clicks it 10 times beginning at this 12z's 72 hour, the GFS has ended up on that cyclonic look for 10 consecutive cycles. You know ...we've often noted the 101, 'continuity' - can't argue that in this case. It just makes it that much more embarrassing when a model is contiguously a piece of shit - if it comes to that.... The GGEM on the other hand...lets the lead S/W finish deterioration/absorption into the confluence deformation of the -NAO exertion/negative interference. The latter mid west comes in... and does still have enough identity in the total wave-space to at least give cyclonic response ... maybe 1/3 the profile. A lighter event. By virtue of weaker jet fields ( weaker erosion/WAA) it actually allows light mix down to Rt 2... K, adding the Euro to this discussion now too ... It looks even more separated than the GGEM... which really puts it in the diametric camp comparing the GFS. Interesting at this range to be that variant. But one aspect about the Euro - as an aside - the follo-up S/W is actually potent in this run. So much so that as it rounds the semi-permanent TV pig and dives SE, it's bending the surface pressure pattern... Not sure what the IVT/Norlun aspects could materialize, but I wouldn't put that beyond the realm of possibilities, either. There's just a tone of chaos potential with these closely spaced S/W spraying over/through the Rockies over the next 48 hours. I mean, the Euro could be more right in essence, but then necessarily start painting more IVT QPF in future guidance anyway. ------ The short take away here is... the GFS phases nuances more, and that constructively leads to more cyclone response. The GGEM a little less...the Euro even less.

So it probably won't happen - this 26th ordeal ? Or maybe some muted vestige in some arguable sense of it will, but not like the GFS ... We've been wise not to buy. However, there is the fact that other guidance had something similar enough carried along in the their 00z synoptic evolution, that something is/was there in the physic more so than the GFS merely fabricating - which the latter doesn't really happen... but for brevity. What this comes down to as a deterministic critique is either going to be: - why does/did the GFS do this or -why is it that the GFS was capable of picking up on this where the others were so vacant/ or at best low consistency My guess is we will be looking at this along the first of these two questions.

I don't doubt it ..heh.. But is he Met or climate or ?

Who's that ?

"Weather" the current circulation mode of the hemisphere is relatable to CC ... it is, first of all. Because climate change happens because of changes in weather event distribution - to which what is happening now .... IS WEATHER EVENT DISTRIBUTION. It gets old trying to run from climate change behind the mantra that climate doesn't drive the weather. It doesn't ? but that's evasive, really. Because it means the weather events that integrate the climate, are changing. That's just logic. You can't have a warming climate, without changes in the circulation modes .. .because the circulation modes are driving the weather that averages the f'ing climate! Having said that ... it's not why it is not snowing right now.

we should put up a betting pool... Can you imagine the pay-out if 1 person in the 15,000 users put a 100 down the Jet's to win the blizzard bowl and they did ...?

First of all, ... replace that adjective above with something more realistically descriptive ... something like, oh say - brain's blasted out the back of skulls. Secondly, not sure how we can disconnect the latter sentiment from the brain's blow-out model, when the latter is entirely caused by the blown out brains.

Dude, ... yesterday ... when the ice rendered to cold rain... we bucketed over a half inch of rain at 32.8 F

It's really eerily symbolic... like the models are catching something spooky in the act of moving physics around for some weird need to see that happen LOL. Seriously, one school of thought is that the "Globe" part of the G, F, and S model is supposed to mean, in principle, a full planetary integrated system? If thats the case, and the NAO is indeed fated to a nuanced subtlety that allows a system to get to CNE, it might be a model that is more likely to detect that. Just sayn' Or not... I cannot stress enough, tho - the GFS did this three weeks ago with equal panache. Hung it's verification out to dry on a system no other model carried along. For days it insisted... then it finally capitulated. Gone...with like 36 hours to spare. I think everyone's acknowledged this - it's not a new point... But just thought I'd bring it up again.

Yeah... really, it's a fantastic philosophical voyage with that ultimately forgettable thing, huh - I mean - imho - there should be no system with an NAO shunt. I mentioned that last night... crash ... wake up, to find that all model have 'some'thing now. Whaaa So, I think it would almost be a interesting testament to an era where prediction/deterministics may be in an era-specific all-time low, if nothing does happen. That means that every model took turns being a piece of shit waste of electrons and man-hours.

by PV and super .... do you mean as in a hugely +AO ?? Or do you mean one of these SPV buzz saws in Canada - Those are both PV 'flavors' that obviously offset the other. A strong JB presentation is a "weak PV" relative to AO convention/domain geography ...blah blah semantics, but, it is in fact still a strong PV. Sorry but it's worth the distinction... I was just looking over the 00z opertional runs out in the totally mentally responsible time range of D10 ... in a canon muzzle velocity flow regime no less... and taking note at how the Euro operational and the GFS operational, are actually in shockingly good agreement on a very strong SPV rollin' through mid and lower Canada on that day. Neither the EPS nor the GEFs means around that time span agree - these operational version really divorce their ens systems pretty glaringly - if not for the day 10ness of it ... that might seem strange. It's not about whether it happens, but I'm curious "IF" something like the operational blend did ...that might force the numerical EOFs to pop a +PNA by virtue of nadir weighting. These are excessively deep anomalies, such that the delta(HT) scalar values would drive the PNA calculation results, up - believe it or not, this would transiently induce a +PNA calculation:

Umm ... really -

No one asked but ... I really don't care about white Xmas as an experience. I think in my youth it may have been 'neat to see' but ... for having grown up in that late 1970s through the '80s, I was impelled to give up on any illusions in that regard. You know, even those fantastic winters of in the last 70s, I don't think there was a lot of snow around prior to Christmas's, but that's getting close to the event horizon of my quantum emergence ..so my recall is fuzzier. Come to think of it... maybe there is a reason in the song Irving Berlin wrote about "...Dreaming of white Christmas," he dreamed: If it was far more common, ...he wouldn't need to ever dream of it. It would be, "I'mmm dreamin' of seeing friends and family. Without being found after the spring thaw exposed" Anyway, I've been more getting a kick out of watching the technology of man ...struggle to claim the right vision in this hurried entropic circulation that is so anomalous in its own characteristic, it feels like we'd be better off using a crystal ball. There is no statistical/climatology for f'ed up circulation modes - that would be a neat Standard Deviation come to think about it... heh. Like, a period of increasing threat, per assessment, with the caveat emptor being that it is taking place in a +7 SD "veiny" circulation inch ...I mean risk. Talking about the models trying to operate in a -EPO/-NAO, with 15 contours of height gradient mashing the HC so far S it only "looks" like it's not there f'n bums out of winter storms. It is... deal with it. But snark aside, the GFS has failed twice to do what it started insisting again - not lending confidence. For some three day's worth of model cycles, it's been jamming a light to middling S/W and associated ...whatever it can muster, through the NAO deformation wall. Yesterday ... the ICON of all guidance starts nodding. We laugh. Then the Euro, probably the most not-happeningest model that ever no-ed a Debbie Downer depiction ...comes on board with it ... and we still laugh - probably defensively. Can't say we blame... because it's all rain. That's a dark comedy for the winter enthusiasts... when the GFS coups ( finally! ) for butting heads with the NAO deformation wall, it coups with rain. For what it's not worth ( and that's probably a LOT of not ... ), the NAO may actually help bring snow back. If the nuances of the large forcing allows this thing to squirt through, it is just as possible that it actually corrects S over these next couple of days of runs - it is climatologically a better track guidance for -NAO exertion model. The problem is, this fast flow is happening, while the NAO is doing that - that's an unusual combination of very large circumstance, causing oddities at smaller scales. This thing's whole mechanical manifold as it squeezes through is down to meso-beta scaled. It's like trying to target a hurricane!

Yeeeah, but the 'I told you so' isn't entirely fair to the individual whose lived the vicissitudes of climate over the last 20 years of both anecdotal, but most importantly empirically measured climate change. ( Bolded that statement to the straw-man; I'm not making that up...it's not an impression. It's fact) And part of that total/notable climate change manifold has been that the autumns have become increasingly more prone to snow events, earlier than the previous 150 years of perceived climate stability draws those pictures in the elderly mind about what should and should not be according to tradition. Whenever I hear someone with wisdom that is based upon the pre-2000 climate era, I have a sticking point about their perspective as defaulting to a bias: it is one becoming somewhat outmoded because the climate is repainting the canvas of expectation. I am mid aged, perhaps a little older chronologically... but when factoring in modernity and medicine, probably on point - that is, excluding the very real possibility that any one in the ambrosia of slow moving apocalypses, the "innovation" and brilliance our species is causing, ... starts taking people earlier... Anyway, I do remember the late 1970s through the 1990s. That was a significantly different experience compared to the 2000+ decades. In that former span of years, I remember snow in minoring occurrences ...maybe 3 times, prior to Halloweens. A few more times in November and December, but by and large, the vaster majority of years romance with weather was about pining for weeks...and weeks, and weeks over weeks, with no leaves on the trees over chartreuse -browned earth. It was like living reel version of the depressing song, "Life In Mono" - you just felt abandoned by the one and only thing you really cared about as a weather enthusiast at that time of the year. That all changed around 2000. We began ( in spring's too, btw - ) observing snow in October, and increased frequency of significant winter storms, too. Not just packing pellets dancing around car tops under a virga exploded CAA cumulous, either. Even more so in Novembers and Decembers, with far greater frequency. Interestingly ...this has not apparently parlayed very well to immediately ensuing winters but that's a whole 'nother aspect.

Oh it’s gonna be 80 in February … … again

It’s a warm version but late. Considering the previous run was partly sunny. But none of these solutions should really exist … but I dunno. Maybe Ray’s key slot NAO wobble let’s one thru.

GGEM now too-

GFS doubling down on the 26th. Wtf- 980mb low east of PSM. Actually takes it N of BOS … which I think is less likely in this proven NAO influence But it’s got the ICON more fully on board… hinted at 18z, it’s now doing some bizarre narrow corridor quasi Miller B, too both are oddities. Lows don’t typically RI over EEN moving due east thru that latitude.

The GFS has been better this season but I’m not sure it’s because the model is so, or if it’s just because the hemisphere is fast and the GFS happens to be well situated. Hiding a progressive bias in that sense. In any case … it’s attempted insertion of trough mechanics into this atmospheric levee in the NE and had to pull out at 72 hrs … No confidence it succeeds now.