Typhoon Tip

Yeah I've been trying to engineer a way for others to get into the 90 club all morning. Verdict still out on success - lol.. But agreed. I think though this day has more chance of scouring out the subtle stable layer that's plagued the bottom of the sounding. It's really from you to about Logan... along and E of the line is 3 to 5 or < below the 85 I have presently here. My wind is SW... ASH is E... But above the deck there's a little more momentum ...blah blah, the boundary that's 'not really there' retreats?

Yeah, 10 after 10 ? interesting to test that. If it works out, we'll edge big heat.

I'm wondering how proficient convection will penetrate SE across the non-hydrostatic gradient later tonight. Those heights are not in any hurry to fall - though receding slowly. You like height falls, while still elevated hydrostatics -that's the cap recession happening with elevated CIN moving off if need be, or, just making for very sensy triggers. For this region of the country, we could use some mid level wind momentum too/shear kinematics to give assist. Those mechanics ... are they in place tonight S-E of ALB? This looks like a candidate for a front to come in underwhelming and end up paralleling the flow before fading ... It'll be enough to make for 73/49 top 10 gems for a couple days ...then - There's been a better convective signal for the end of the week that's been consistent in all the guidance.

Over arcing synoptic ridging is suppressing anything from happening over CNE/SNE, so far through this period, yet is insufficient in kinematically driving an offshore wind. Which allows an oceanic creep to move into into eastern regions like at scene out of that B- '80 horror called "The Fog" Great. So we desiccate in cool misery. Actually, not me here in Ayer - I'm commiserating for the E and SE folk, where clearly ... modeling was not sophisticated enough to see these oddities nuance them out of this summer burst before it really became clear in very short term, that would be the case. They should get some this afternoon - me thinks. I've been literally right on that interface between the two worlds. Drive up to Westford's Wholefoods ( lest I rely upon the local 'rural' Americana 'canned ravioli' chains ..), which is immediately astride I-495 there ...and you can sometimes smell the mash-up between eastern mass industrial effusion and marine taint, and it's routinely 7 to 10 F cooler. That location is only about 7 mi E of my longitude. Yesterday was about 87, though, while we were 91.

Looking and comparing E regional obs, it appears wherever decoupled overnight - and those close to and E of that boundary Saguaro posted above were more proficient in the regard - end up back in a N drift. Those closer to the coast, variable between NE-SE. W of that boundary, the weakly decoupled area was more variable to dead calm. Yet, ....WPC analyzed the synoptic weird boundary that seems to fester with physics disconnected from God ( ), repositioned farther NE up into southern Maine. Sarcasm aside, that boundary does not really reflect these meso scale circumstances that are still plaguing the 'warm stretch.' What I am also noticing this morning, as we heat up... as the temperature rises to between 78 and 80 ( now ), sites are showing a flip to WSW ...albeit very light. ORH at 1000 feet is WSW the whole way. One thing this whole ordeal apparently lacked was a strong enough llv gradient to drive the wind field/fronts along. This is a stagnated scenario, or close to it. The air quality around the region as the yellowed sun rises through it is pretty 'ozoney' for only having DPs in the mid 60s ...and I think that makes sense given the lack of sufficient mixing associated with that former reasoning. As we continue to warm, the feeble deeper layer environmental wind momentum may just be enough to mix out that stranded air mass over eastern zones ... I dunno mid day. Nashua was 73 with an E flag wobble zephyr; Bedford popped to 79 and went WSW.

E of the Hudson ...? - haven't for 25 years

Rounding down only to have to round back up later just offers confusion. It seems pretty redundant and stupid but what do you get from an EDU lol

Not many “dew” … not in here. There’s one or two exceptions that laud DPs. Perhaps loudly

WPC's caught a meso low in the act of abetting the bust for Boston proper

The near shore fog bank just shifted abruptly ...now moving more parallel to the coast, S --> N as opposed to getting sucked in like's the Bay Area/SF ...It was like looking at that classic pull through the GG gap, mirror opposite - coming into the Boston from our Bay. It looked identical. Meanwhile, out here in the "central valley" we're 88 to 92. Anyway, I'm wondering if they get the 7 pm wind shift and T burst as the city farts -

At this point they're putting up 91.4 over sustained time at KFIT so... Anyway, most sites within a couple clicks of me in the home network pinged 90 anyway - I think this and perhaps the Springfield area were the trophy regions for this day. Tonight's going to be groin in the urban centers - probably 72 to 75s, not until the 4:45 am at that. The kind of ramp up tomorrow where the atmosphere is so prone to rise, the mere day light prior to the dawn has it up a couple clicks. Sun tips over the horizon and away we go. I'm also wondering if we get more debris clouds spilling over the region by early to mid afternoon, so that may keep tomorrow from going completely Hades

I'm not sure how we're doing this ... there may be a subtle d-slope aspect. The wind's light and bouncing around the dial .. .but tending to average S here and at KFIT, both lower elevations than points south of us. That little bit may be why they've pinged 89 and we have 88's popping around my town's home sites. Seems we are 2 to 3 warmer along this strip of Rt 2... It feels legit fwiw - actually BDL's 88 by decimals. I think there's something funky about the C conversion to F at MESO Utah.edu though - ah... moot point. If there's ever a candidate day for a late high, today is definitely it. Hot sun until 5pm this time of year, with these adiabats in place... 90 to 92 is certainly possible sprinkled around the area. Logan..haha.

88/67

Okay ... unofficially crossed the uncomfortable threshold here. 86/67, full sun, zip wind. I was standing having a discussion with a neighbor. Beads of sweat on the forehead kicked in after about 10 or so minutes. I guess if you're driving down the road with the windows open it may not feel as hot, but it's still heat at this point.

84/66 here... That's a 15 turn around since 11:30 ... not bad. But looking at area obs, it appears we are still even now slabbing the lowest level with abandoned cool. The 1000 foot high ORH ob is solid WSW at 83 - that's the same temperature as lower els surrounding. Quite unusual. Anything to steal today's heat it seems - weird. haha. But congrats on verifying your Heat Advisory -

heh... I was being sarcastic.

It's interesting ... just looking over the morning long loop ( dawn-ish until now) at COD. Speeding that up, you really get the impression that the sensitivity today was almost entirely BL timing. I mean this thing corrected entirely by radiative forcing (sun) as it rose over and plumbed the sounding. The mid and high deck didn't even make the coast - it just sort of vanished as it came east, exposing the lower murk ... it too evaporates from all directions. I think this was a strange bust where the ridge burst over head, over night, and that inverted the sounding - I think that's referred to as "CAC" .. cold air capping. It's basically when you have a stranded lower cold air that gets sealed over warm cloud decks. You see it more commonly in mid winter.

Uh oh - your heat index values might be 90

LOL .... you might want wear single layered, white colored clothing, and consciously drink plenty of fluids

it seems like the increasingly automated reliance - I'm gaslighting a little here, admittedly ... - throughout the field ( and I've seen this in other areas of society too - ) is causing a dumb-down effect. Questionable competency ...almost carelessness may be more apropos, is suggested now and again. Of course two things I have personally noticed about my age group and myself including... One, we also get smarter as we age, just existentially forced - I guess those of the 20 to 40 year old range don't have the advantage. But two, we lose patience and think everyone's an asshole. Now... trying to parse out reality from personal bias has it's own challenges LOL. But no - there's something else to this observation that probably has truth to it. We see more silliness in operating the world. In weather-related matters, resulting in things like today... It's not "all the time" no. But more so than during hey day era of great disco analytics, the 1990s through early 2000s. There's other socio-babble reasons too. Like .. point and click forecasts - I mean hire more staff and populate the f'ers with eye ball material please. Jesus ... that's budget cuts from whatever macro eco bs that's not related to dumbing down - or maybe it is, indirectly. Like, we are multi generational, convenience addled by the Industrial bubble society button pushers now... Inside of that bubble, things get taken for granted, eventually more and more so - it's intuitively inevitable. And decisions get made that are dumb. Like, we can take the salaries out of entry level operations jobs... yeah.

what does this mean? what f is LFG - you guys and all these abbreviations jesus

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

It's a clad point to make, Brain. Another way to say ... the writing was on the wall by noon yesterday, when it became really obvious the day was - aslo? - busting cold. This belay today, really got its start 24 hours ago when we get right down to it.

There's no question this 2am to noon period of time was either: not handled well by the models. not interpreted well by those looking at the models. some combination of both. Most likely, it's that 3rd option there. Either way, that's going to make heat advisory an interesting test. No doubt, eating up the dawn to 10am or noon period is going to retard heating potential, but how much or little? It's hard maybe for one to get their mind around the idea, but the adiabats are very warm over top and probably there is a poorly analyzed warm front difused and muddling matters further. But like I just said, there's a western edge to this hell moving pretty quickly east per sat review this hour, which extapolates progressively. As it passes E, it is exposing the low level under those warm adiabats to high hot sun. That will thermally couple higher and higher, and the temp will like respond quite a bit. Also - that MCS that rolled out of Missouri over the last day, seemed to fall apart and lose identiy over PA yesterday, but no - that festering ulcer that mimics at TD zygote SE of the Cape came back to life overnight; it didn't help either. FIT, ASH, BED, ORH... all with N drift to the wind this morning. Couldn't of ruined ( at least the morning aspects...) any better without it being a category 5 back door bomb. lol

So far the follow-up post on how this should evolve, moving forward after acceptance of having eaten morning bust-shit ( lol )... is working according to plan at least. There is a western edge and clearing salvation to this hell. Mid and high debris deck is passing off and exposing low levels to the high sun from west to east. Day glow sky has brightened western zones/CT over top the lingering stranded fog/strata. That's going to transition the day like Brian mentioned above... I don't know if we'll make Heat Advisory headlines, but as the sun comes through the adiabats alone will force a rapid temperature rise as the low levels thermally couple with ... I tell you what, if we can even get a BL depth to 900 mb, we'll still make 91.