Typhoon Tip

It's not impossible that the 22nd ( altho, perhaps adjusted to more like 22.5 or 23rd) could come back, too -

Still waiting on the seemingly dependable 20 to 30% reduction in overall system integrity that the models typically start correcting at this range. So far so good … but I wouldn’t put it passed this doing that going forward. Heh

I guess Dryslot already did. But maybe you could petition to get ‘SWFE’ removed from the title ?

‘Cept, … I wouldn’t consider a flat wave going underneath us with typical frontogen and backing elevated flow signatures/ low securely going south as a SWFE. But that’s just trying to apply some consistency to the usage of the term. I mean it’s happening along a narrow corridor admittedly but it’s still not a primary shooting up at Saint Lawrence and a huge isentropic wall that ends as a weak meso low scooting seaward. This is a frontal wave /New Jersey model hybrid… but weak in the latter sense.

There’s gotta be some sort of a cold reenforcing boundary around hr 60 (NAM) per the FOUS because the thermal profile rather abruptly goes white below 800mb as the wind switches NNE (Logan)

May as well just have one big super thread … call it, ‘2021-2022 minutia and personal bullshit occasionally interrupted by model imaging psychosis ‘

I wonder if that was a tropospheric fold out there

I wonder if they trop folded

Looking at some of the particular details in the PP/mass field behavior... It wouldn't shock me if this thing were to labor toward mixing, then a "tuck" jet swooshes SW and formulates a more proper rain/snow line that bows into RI

Fwiw - I don't see any difference wrt to the GEFs that offer much distraction. Both EPS/GEFs means even quasi manifest a polar cut flow ...centered ~ D10 . As is typically the case ... by 300 hours the mean starts to look increasingly annular around the hemisphere, bleeding out the nodes toward entropy ..etc. But, there are still vestiges of the D10 echoing through the disarray of those vast extended frames... so.. short version? cross guidance support about as far as can be seen in the future... That looks like an emerging threat for an arctic outbreak like old school - that's the scaffolding anyway..

Personally ... I side with the Euro for a few reasons, both meteorological and operational/experience included... That said, I'd call some ZR/PL down to the Pike or even NW CT as a relative win, because as I went on with it earlier...the Euro most likely has a better handle on the DP layout post the shallow boundary, and it's synoptic PP being subtle but crucially greater than the GFS north, is more likely real at this range and adds to that... Operationally, we are < than 96 hours and I don't believe the GFS scores typically better than the Euro in this range. but there are other nuanced reasons with the tooling, too

Back on pg 91 a wrote this massive… … And basically it seems like nothings changed. The models are still trying to sort out which system …no clue which or what is going to be dominant or significant enough, through that period of time roughly the 18th through the end of the month – which they get a pass because we’re still talking about extended leads. Just sayn.

I can’t believe those people are so willing to go across that bridge

oh Forgot to circle back ..I realized that but ended up pulled off to actually working ..heh

tries to sustain 12 hrs of bona fide blizzard headline ...

wow, the 12z GGEM took that 00z run and made it even more dramatic looking ... Somewhere, there is a man putting down 100,000$ on NYJ to win the Superbowl

I know what this is... The GFS still possess an ever so much but crucial inaccuracy in handling the BL thermodynamics of saturation - a product heredity that kicked in a handful of "upgrades" ago... I suspect that is why it is not seeing/assessing the BL resistance of interior SNE/SE NY and the eastern Capital District of NYS as having upper 20s DP in near or at saturation, and instead, drills the temp/dp combo to something like 40/35 while the light to moderate ordeal plays out through the weekend. I would not trust the GFS in this situation. Both it, and the Euro never move the antecedent front back N into CT-RI, and once that sets up ... and assuming the Euro handles the BL more precisely...sorry - The GGEM ...not sure how to account for that - it could be arriving at it's layouts through different means/local biases ( or not..) but, it does, just cursory, looks like it doesn't lay out as much antecedent +PP into central/NNE... prior to arrival, so it whether or not it is handling the BL resistance or not, it never has a chance to test that because it's about 4 ... 6 mb lower in ambient PP compared to Euro. That's where I am leaning as of this hour - less weight on the GFS's hydgroscopic thermodynamics, in lieu of more accuracy handling that in the Euro ...and possible BL resistance feedbacks. Should the Euro arrive with less lead +PP, then I lean away.. That would be situation where the earlier runs of the GFS were right for the wrong reasons though -

There's some false infamy thrown at it, lately, too. When a model is always superior, separated from the pact and peerless, a bad performance or two creates this disproportionate gravitas, and just like in human parlance ..it is unjust - because people were pining all along in a coveted head-space, to see the celebrating taken down. Haha. we do this in our culture with people, to... The more a famous and popular and good-looking the transcendence's intangible mystique is, watch out should that individual f'up and be human even once. Discarded ... usually, they're dropped, fading to irrelevancy; but then some may resurface a decade later with new understated draw and gain popularity back slow cooked. Anyway, the Euro's been shakier that last 18 or so months... given - but shakier is still better than all other guidance by empirical measure. I was just mentioning yesterday, that model bested the GFS ghost nor'easter it kept selling ... run after ran after run, earlier in the month. There were threads started for what ultimately worthwhiled to dim sun cirrus, because the striking consistency of the GFS grew too difficult to ignore ... if perhaps resist. The Euro might have had it once or twice at D9..but it dropped it really pretty early, stayed the course, and silently won that debacle by a pretty bad looking pantsing - That, and... D5's - boy have expectations changed over the years, huh? I mean, I remember back in 1992 ...97 like it was yesterday, and nothing had any rights on that day anyway. funny -

Conflicting schools on the Saturday thing ... Firstly, glad to see folks coming around to giving it attention - mentioned this yesterday... that had an icy look, albeit below mid impact, for the interior, with similar snow implications to S VT/NH... and here we are with the models converging on the climate/experience, therefrom. That said, you know ...advisory? But there is interesting aspect below: Deterministic philosophy on a meaningless event, by Jack Handy lol: The conflicts are less whether there will be a flat wave rolling thru. I think even the confidence of it forced S and staying < ALB-BOS latitude, is also > 50%. The conflicts are this business about over-assessment of mechanical power by the models in the mid/ext ranges, vs. systems seem to over perform QPF relative to modeling after the fact. Those two are offsets... It's like the system verifies weaker, but then drops 30" of snow from a (sarcastic) cumulus cloud As to the former, the models are consummately having to shed a goodly amount of there prior systemic 'might,' as the forecast interval in question comes inside of 120 hours. Here we are on the cusp at ...108 or so. I'd like to see this be consistent particularly at hour 72, or I don't put Scott's snark re shred fest more inside the realm of possible results. I don't know what causes the constant inflating of features out there in time, but it is a fairly consistently observable model error/biasing for me. My suspicious is that the flow is having to be sped up, and that stretches things and starts attenuating fields...etc... complex. I don't know... that said, I've also seen flat waves just over-perform because one or two synoptic/mechanical aspects are on roids. That one or two parametrics overwhelm a total system profile that looks less than pedestrian at first glance... Kind of Lance Bozartian and the "Lil' critters that bite" ...

First thing I've seen in 18 hours ... greets me with perfection. At least the day started the day off right! This is the Dec 21 00z GGEM solution... for 180 hours, as I am sure by now this is passe' with this particular crew of carpet surfers haha. But, I did notice the page count upped a bit over night - hmm... intriguing. That's a 20" er with winds going bonkers on exit type of NJ Model bomb you read about in fiction ... only an ode to dreams.

The thing about that 21/22nd system of great eye appeal is that the GFS just served us a ghoster earlier this month - lest we forget. Remember - The Euro never had it... The GFS, insistent spanning two or three consecutive days, pummeled us with a solid mid grade warning level snow storm/nor'easter ... waiting until 72 hours out to finally nod to the Euro taking too far SE to matter - and weaker, too. This looks eerily similar to me. Although the teleconnector footprint seems better this time, go - yeah.. Focus on the Saturday thing first.

This is an impressive Hemisphere ... every cycle I've seen over the last ...5 or 6 back-to-back, has edged more impressive in the general large scale frame-up ... https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefs&p=500h_anom&rh=2021121312&fh=204&r=nh&dpdt=&mc= And, we see on the 22nd there is a mean negative tilt high power trough lifting along NE Coast... Probably don't have to look; foregone conclusion there are several individual members toting along a significant event there.

course... I hadn't seen the 12z Euro ... but it doesn't change the deterministic status ... for now.

I guess it depends what one means by "game" ... Even relative to 5 days out mm...a minoring wintry profiled scenario is on the table to N CT/RI... That's a suppress b-clinic open wave that's putting down icing/mix in the interior from what i'm looking at... probably light snow in southern VT. Lest we forget, cold exertion in the bl/ageo forcing is routinely underestimated, even in higher resolution reputable guidance types - which frankly ..this latter has been rattled in confidence lately anyway.

Focus is on the bigger ticket 'plausibility' out there around the 22nd but the foreground event over the weekened ( centered on 144 or so hours ...) is worth considering ... probably lower significance? sure, but I think that's advisory icing in the interior ending with grits and flurries, with low snow/mix tots in southern VT/NH. The air mass ahead is new post fropa. Altho not excessively cold/dry by any stretch, pressures are rising through NNE - that tends to lead to more ageostrophic/925 mb N llv flow in the interior central/southern NE regions - probably feeding in lower DP. Minor situation overall, but one that looks like a smoking gun for under-estimating hygroscopic cooling. SO, with weaker WAA associated with that flat baroclinic bulge rippling by underneath, it "appears" from this range/blend, to be the right ratio wrt to not overwhelming the llv cold.. Probably some modest frontogenic tendencies over top, too. The thing with the 22nd, ... to me, most GEF individual members carry an event from the TV up the or E of the App spine, and transfer some sort of Miller A/ B hybrid. Obviously the 06z was an impressive 20 mb calving in 12 hours absurdity or whatever Kleenex and magazine that was. It was an outlier... Agree with Will.. the general flow scaffold from 100 W to Greenland provides the 'needle thread' ... it is noted that GGEM dropped the system altogether. The Euro actually had that thing 3 days ago as a historic bomb cutting straight across ...which we rightfully 86 that silliness. But, the 00z run ..as far as I can tell, doesn't even have it. It also looks to have fallen out of sync with it's own ensemble mean. All the while, the hemisphere seems poised to click cogs into a -(wpo;epo) couplet up there, with the NAO probably doing it's thing as a transitive/non-linear large scale wave forcing - in other words... it magnitude and placement is wildly uncertain. Bottom line, vastly too early to be specific about the 22nd.