Typhoon Tip

Yeah I wasn't paying that close attention to your region of CT ...but here, we have not seen sun since Monday.

For some reason I'm having trouble getting font to bold ... but, "We just need to tap one of these near record mid level warmth airmasses with the right downsloping WNW flow" I could not agree more vehemently. We're playing with fire. It's a matter of time. Personally? I'm certain. I keep seeing us miss, just oh so close... Like a big right hand hitter lifting fly balls to the warning track 'cause he's a fraction of angle off on the baseball that game - it doesn't mean he's gonna fly out all season. In that metaphor, the 'season' being the next 10 .. 20 .. 50 years..etc. In recent years, that 2017 historic non-hydrostatic height balloon over eastern mid latitude N/A ...did not have a SW heat ejection plugged into it. Contrasting, we may observe those ejections mangled into flatter, or too transient ridge scenarios that offer other problems not allowing free/synergistic temperature rises... It kind of reminds me of that February, 2015 - using the antithesis. Earlier in January that winter ...I recall saying the pattern was playing with fire ( weird word choice), because these obscene cold air masses were knifing in for 24 to 36 hours, rolling out and then it would rain - the S/W frequency was there, and they were potent. We just needed the polar to sync up - it was a temporal spacing issue. Boom - We've been avoiding the dire heat scenario by 'luck' is some senses of it all.

See...I feel uneasy with this mode of thinking ^ Simple logic, the climate is unstable. In this case, moving in a predictive +delta Climate cannot = D(climate) Reliance/assumptions footed upon a past climate that was not in the same delta ( changing...), makes using that in present era, dicey for me. That said, I also see the winters pattern behaviors as being effected in the same way over the last 10 years, doing so, regardless of ENSO this, or polar index decadal that, or PDO/AMO ... solar dogs and cats. It's not only an homage to the notion that past climate is less reliable, but it also tells me that there is an unknown forcing here that could very well mean that winter distribution of cold and snow will continue to result in unexpected ways. I short, 70 years means less to me in delat(climate), and then also adding trend of observable/objective pattern analsys/biases over recency ... 40 years ago, if some said to me, 'that hasn't happen in 70 years' I'd be more impressed than saying so in 2022, when climate oddities are raining.

There we go Brian ... Maybe you looked at a different Sat source/rendering than COD, but just in the last 2 frames, there's more of that under glue being exposed by the back edge. But my hunch is that it punches through in this case ... with the June sun and nothing above it. It'll be an interesting little nerd project for the mid day. Lol

I didn't do that... The receding frost line is about as harmlessly generic, and in fact, not exposing to any agenda, as one can be considering the subject matter of CC is real ... ...whether we want to believe it or not. To wit, that means seasonal frost line recedes. The HC stuff is one component in the total CC manifold. As far as your 6th winter? you didn't ask me but I put that at 50/50.

I knew last Sunday and Monday ...during that rare utopia weather landing cookie-cutter perfect on the Holiday necessity and mirth, we were going to pay a persecution tax for it by spending at least as much time the other way, and then some. However, there's a hidden incentive in the notion that it landed Tue-Thur morning ( so far on the latter), because unless one's retired or working from home, or just has the luxury of every day being "Sunday" - it's more important that relay into crudsville happened in this order.

as for SNE proper, I can see plenty of Earth through that. It's not that pervasive and dense. I'm thinking more like it it gets better for an hour, then pancake maybe ? But that would be after the fact. Clearing's about 15 mi W of me ...I guess I'll see soon enough.

Heh ...snark aside, this is actually an outstanding insight. That's not atypically how these things go. But, the difference here is that there is really nothing above ~ 900 mb after this lid pulls off, and it will expose that gossamer lower veil of strata to the intensity of the June sun. So if there's an exposing 'undercast' it's likely going to offer about the same resistance as Golden State did in that 4th Quarter annihilation last night. Also, as I intimated earlier... even though WPC doesn't analyze a frontal extension along the back edge, my personal hunch is that one is vestigial and by decimals of advection is enough to assist clearing.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Thankfully ...there's a definitive clearing entering western MA/CT, inching east at the speed of 15 mph plus erosion rates. WPC stopped analyzing a front extending N from NE PA into NNE but the look on sat loops seems there's still a vestigial echo of that physical exertion helping to delineate why SNE is an anal hole climate compared to the everywhere else in the U.S.

I think I'm satisfied with opaque skies casting a dreary daylight over a pall of still, cool dank. This can go ahead and move along now...

Why not? it'd fit the notion of receding frost lines do to CC - ...we're not going the other way. Dearth years should become more common. I suppose a couple a of good winter are easily still within reach ... I mean it's all "supposed" to take 50 years to get DCA's climate to PWM or whatever. At some point, we'll get around to a MR Blutarsky winter out at Logan.

IF anything ... this, https://getpocket.com/explore/item/an-ancient-era-of-global-warming-could-hint-at-our-scorching-future My own op-ed: Simple conceptual question to mull over: It took the Earth a billion years to create and stow all these volatility in the form of fossil fuels; humanity comes along and threatens to release all that reactive chemistry ... back into the dynamic system in just 500 years ... and yes, time is a variable that matters! What the f do you think is going to happen? Nothing?? The PETM -like acceleration debate has been going on for years. It isn't new, no. But, we're already seeing sudden sea floor methane releases ... These are evidences. Siberian blow-out phenomenon, we're- most likely - heading in a direction of Methane inclusion in this whole mess...turning an already non-linear rise in global temperatures, into something that is accelerating too fast for most systems of nature on the planet to adapt. It is not frankly clear with climate prediction modeling whether they are factoring in that 'wild card'.

Lol ... actually it's toward the end of October but point taken - The only problem is, I could not be more check out on winter. I suppose if I was locked away in an insular work effort pouring over climate regressions for seasonal forecasting in some back office trying to meet a deadline, I wouldn't be very much in a summer mode or even interested in that setting. Barring that kind of job opportunity ever landing in my lap, I'm gonna go ahead and not give a ratz azz about anything resemble blue on a weather chart until mid November.. And it's not even a conscious choice - it seems to be connected to celestial mechanics ( i.e., the actual orbit of the Earth around the sun) for me

It's funny ...between Ray's 55 and Brian's 51 and my 54 ... We still are not "sustaining" warmth - Recall the other end of May ..end April time span. The postal tenor ( as in nearly ready to "go postal" lol - ) was angsy around the notion that we couldn't put back to back to back warm, much less milder days together, before getting the rug pulled out and slipping back into a pattern that uncannily felt like cold shit while still managing to be +.5 above normal... That's still happening. We've seen two failed heat waves at least put one 90 in away, but otherwise, 80 ...but we were never far from this kind of "putrocity" we see out there right now. It's more of a personal druthers or subjective take, granted - but I'd like a 7 days of above 76 F, with maintenance convection to keep the Stein nimrodery down to a dull roar.

As a low grade concern, yet a smidge higher than base-line climate ( qualified enough ha), we do have a flick our eyes to the side occasionally over the next several days, just to be sure.. Hurricane Agnes was forced through the Central American wall but it's remnants are being reactivated by the Euro. The other models are doing so too...just not with this same proficiency we see below: So long as that westerly limb -NAO is in place ( per the post above, D5). It is not impossible that this TC phoenix might be forces closer along the EC.

The cause is different than spring, though. Not that anyone cares what the whip looks like. Make it stop - right? This is an unusual phenomenon that needs its own space/attention: excessive -AO It's not as traditional looking as that which we may observe amid the winter months, however - it's actually quite bizarre. Large vertical height anomaly nodes in the 60/...70 latitude, that have less horizontal dimensions. If we average out the polar domain of this annotation below, it numerically produces a fantastic -AO total, ...but we don't see the R-wave scaffolding of mid winter -AOs. Stab at hypothesis ... this is -AO mapped over a radiatively forced/seasonal warming. Doesn't explain how or why these intense vertical foci of heights are there ... The -AO result may in fact be less wave-mechanically a negative AO, and more just a numerical emergence of another systemic phenomenon. I guess it doesn't matter for the summer-lorn among us... stop the whipping! But, the mid latitudes are not getting summer so long as this below set up... And it's capped the entire world's N. Hemisphere, so overwhelming it's really effecting the pattern underneath at mid latitudes, everywhere... (120 hour EPS mean; 00z June 1 c/o Pivotalweather) The negative anomalies that garland the planet along mid latitudes is what drives the cooler appeal. This total compression causes this westerly/ambient velocities to be way, ..way stronger than normal for this time of year... while the total compression N-->S, suppresses hugely south ( that circumpolar continuous arrow) of climate. I mean this is so bad, I almost want it to just go true climate event and do something super extraordinary. But alas...we likely won't get to see that science awe moment; it'll only gobble 2 week of the summer. This isn't the same as a cut of west Atlantic low... or ensemble-line BDs typical of NE ...while west of Albany basks in Pandorian utopia spring curse... This is some kind of whack planetary problem in scope and scale. It's noteworthy for me.

Multi pulsing CG show from cell passing SW over the last 20 minutes. Small but intensely electrical cells

Small but intense cells popped up west and southwest of Boston

I can hear distant low decibel hums coming over the horizon from those cells all the way up here in the Ayer Also a field of dark bases with some vertical growth over top just expanded over the sky pretty much all quadrants where I am. I’m wondering if some overrun convection is initiating as the heat over New York tries to lop back over the boundary

I don't disagree with much of this ... My point is simply that we should strive to be better, as a people and society, then that which took place last week - that's all. China can do what they do - so long as ( ha! ) they don't do it to us. Which is probably inevitable, too. The mental illness thing is interesting though. I was talking to a retired social worker, clinical psychiatrist that worked in the 1970s, in one of the last federally subsidized insane asylums in the 1970s. Near the end of that decade, those subsidies were frozen and redirected. The 1980s arrive and suddenly the sight of a person having a heated debate with telephone pole, while passer-by's turn heads trying figure 'em out, became a much more common. The change in attitude and abandoning programs, released these fringed unstable folks to the common walk. But most importantly ( according to his discussion -which makes intuitive sense) created a failing framework for future generation support systems, to where levels of angst, to deranged types and the entire spectrum of abnormalities could not readily be guarded - not just to get treatment, they now get ignored! Expose those types to the over stimulating histrionics of the Internet gaslighting manipulation machine, amid a culture that protects rights to gun ownership to the grave... Well, ends up sending masses of them to that destination. When those programs stopped in the 70s and 80s. ...those that left those offices knew this was coming. It's just a lesser known perspective that mainstream media doesn't elaborate upon because there's no profit in news that exposes us to our ancient faults.

I'd say overall it came in 1-2 hr delayed where I am, and about 2-4 hr delayed working SW through the area. But rest assured, all areas end up on the cold side of this thing before late night. Maybe NW Mass holds out a bit ...and west of the Greens... It looks like it's "filled" the regions east of the Monads/Wachuset ridge to at last "spill" west... It's a shallow air mass, but with potency in that shallow layer... It's sort of given the false impression that it is weak but ...it's not. It's 57 in BOS with BR haze and strata/'dead sailor's ghost', and down to 62 at BED... When the sun goes down, the strata probably fills in, out to I95 ...may 495, with valley fog elsewhere. The NAM wants that band lurking NE of the region to come SW and choke off any morning sun tomorrow, such that the murk then gets capped over - it's like it's got this agenda to torture eastern SNE like an OCD. Euro agrees though... I don't think I've ever seen a more quiescent series of weather charts, days 4 to 10, like that 6 days of Euro model. I mean nothing happens in any direct, everywhere ... Dearth of anomalies. Zero restoring events. weird -

Battle royal between June sun and the cold Labrador sludge. As the sun goes down, ...unless the 'appearance' of momentum slowing really does go calm, the slab gets denser and creeps inland. By dawn, it's still slate gray. But therein is the question...if the boundary does run low on momentum and the feed into the backside also wanes, that may be less ... It actually changes the outlook for tomorrow too. Because the sun would rise over a gossamer veil, and we could brighten -

Interesting.. I was kind of more interested in the wind - like was there a noticeable shift as a 'valley jet' kind of feature might have set up -

Are there any obs down the Champlain Valley ? It looks like this BD is unclean and fragmenting, possibly getting an assist/preferentially riding along lower elevations. You can see it scouring out along the St L. Seaway, moving W over SE Ontario...then there's some resistance over the Tughill... Then it's scoured out down the C -V..., then more resistance over the lower Whites/Greens... Then it's bulged west like a prom night breast over eastern SNE...