Typhoon Tip

That 00z GFS would be a record setter. heh

I was scanning the individual GEF members and about 2/3rds of them were signaling a highish latitude Miller B spanning next Weekend+1 day. Large system...originating as a Colorado Low/ continental mauler - something I personally have not seen in quite some time. This type of low can run moderate to heavy snow totals over a wide expanse ... polarward of a primary track from circa Denver to circa Detroit ... Buffalo region, prior to coastal commitment. The other 1/3 have either too much primary... or... to weak over all to be meaningful. Over all this is a trend over the previous two consecutive cycles in the mean ( and indiv. member count ), gaining coherence for that signal. I'm not seeing where the telecon spread from the GEFs signals the Archembault - typically H.A. events are pretty clearly signaled in the former so it is interesting. This feature has been on the operational GFS for three consecutive days worth of cycels...varying between more primary and ice storm cinema, to more commitment to coastal and quite the wallop from PHL to Maine as K.U. The GGEM jumped radically on-board this 12z, but it's solution make-up looks unnatural with a 980 mb low over BUF escaping soon into the Maritime, and then 30 hours later, a sub 950 mb low abeam PWM... That's like never happened, and for a reason. I haven't seen individual EPS members, ...but the mean trended significantly deeper in the total 500 mb between 12z on the 25th and 12z this morning. The operational version is emerging, albeit slowly, ... an active baroclinic field with [ probably ] a multi -wave impact. Usually the ANA-esque open waves at this range is more like a reservation so.. So, with this fledgling consensus for an active New Year's weekend across the country, with [ probably of more importance at this range ] such a massive system with large mass field involvement... it's probably not a mere red herring. I'm just a little leery about the 'magnification' thing the models do ...where they see these things on the temporal horizon like we see the moon’s first rise as a giant pancake. It is also possible - and sometimes does occur - where the higher res "souped up" model types/operational version will agree on a signal, and backward of convention...the telecon opens up to the idea. I just find it really interesting that the type of system in the GEFs members is a typical of an index modality event, yet the PNA isn't impressive there, which is based on the g-damn GEFs...

I love the artistry of forecast models sometimes... Best gallery around -

May get periodic freezing drizzle as it gets dark and the top of the low lvl saturated cold layer attempts to shed degree decimals

Scan elevation ? ... maybe another higher warm layer. I mean the 'tuck' doesn't mean it's cooling above necessarily, right ?

I've been watching that all morning .. yup- We're likely to tuck that all the way and see it teriminate down the eastern flank of the Worcester Hills ...not sure if it spills over. Will and I were onto the aspect that the warm layer in this isn't ideal. The droplet temps are ...a little toasty heh. But that is needing more cold air to help phase change efficiency that normal - relative to temperature. I think that is happening visibly here just N of Rt 2 in N. Middlesex Co in Mass. Ayer - I have icicles and poor accretion efficiency, even though it 30.5 F ... The rain rate is not very heavy. Steady and light ... Typically we could see that be very efficient at that temp but we're not. I'm wondering if that's related the fact that it's probably 40F atop mt Monadnock. the 12z NAM has gone cold over Logan out of nowhere... hmm. It's only +2 C at 900 now by late afternoon.. .yesterday's 18z was +5! That's a pretty substantial short lead term shirking on plans.. If that is true, the tuck pulse above does come on down... we may have seen the warmest this gets. That might not be good considering how loaded the upstream rad is...eesh. Man, icing events have no equal when it comes to excruciatingly tedious micro now casting LOL

Hope you had a good morning opening presents in with icing going on... nice. As far as your concern above, absolutely ... well, most likely. But yeah of course it is. No argument at all. Like I stated - and still believe will be the case ... - this year will have shared real-estate, sometimes more ... sometimes less reflecting the La Nina, relative to climate expectations - " ..I thought this year would pass the hemisphere in and out of La Nina.." ( just to be clear - ) .. Certainly so far since say, mid November, this journey's been consistent with La Nina destructive interference ... some telecon correlations - MJO being one of them, not correlating well, or like behaving weird. Frankly, as far as the HC damping stuff - that needs clarity too: The 'damping' part as an HC effect, is a hypothesis that as far as I am aware, only on my part. But I'm sure with the vast number of heads in the business, I'm not the only one scratching head.. It's not about that. Just that it's not sent through rigor. That said, HC expansion in and of its self, that much is not hypothesis. It's empirical. The HC part of the total Walker circulation model has/begun to expand outside of the ENSO over recent decades ... That is by virtue of geometry ( really ...) disconnecting the equatorial ENSO's direct latent heat diffusion model, ever more; that separation is the damping. It's not so much a physical damping like holding it down; more so the lowering the ability of ENSO's direct modulation because of the growing disconnect. The advent of a powerful +EAMT signal in the late mid range/ .. especially extended blends, that would tend to modulate the Pacific circulation toward a newer paradigm than recent weeks. Whatever emerges: does it constructively vs destructively interfere with La Nina. Early indicators appear to suggest latter, as more and more individual GEF/EPS members ( using that metric indirectly ...) are beginning to emerge for Phase 8. Plus, the AO is is correcting down. It'll be interesting to see these indexes over the coming dayts, because if they continue to emerge this way, that would be competing against the La Nina footprint, and could herald one of those times when we hemisphere less reflects the cool ENSO mode.

Wow … that is one deliciously nasty storm in the GFS D8/9 …10 its like .7” accretion over to 45mph CCB snows … There’d have to be two fade in headlines

CMC has a much more impressive ice set up 2.5 days later …

Yeah no shit. CMC stays ZR the whole way. I’m noticing ever so subtle but more robust positive surface pressure pattern damming down eastern New England on that guidance comparatively. I’m wondering if there might be a little bit more ageo just critical

It all really draws the notion that the worst ice storms must be some sweet ratio between heat released thru phase change, vs offsetting heat sink feeding into the accretion layer. too much one way … more PLs … go the other and 32.1

Yeah no … I guess it just effects people in different ways. Bottom line I don’t miss it and generally feeling and most importantly being better, are the barometer.

Heh. Thanks but fuller disclosure … I didn’t have liver issues. I was getting physicals thru that era and blood work never reflected that.

I wonder if there's ever been a teleconnection calculated using the circulation mode over Japan ...around the world? That'd be cool, heh. There's are little known rule of thumbs out there. Like, tornadoes in Michigan tend to offend New England 24 hrs later. Or troughs over eastern N/A tend to correlate with troughs of western Europe. I can imagine these types of concurrency are more related to geometry/R-wave distribution. And if so, wonder how far that extends. There's obviously an Indian Ocean telecon with the -NAO... so - good post though. You should chat with Weatherwiz - another Met that bops around the forum. He was all over the Asian feed and needing that to change the relay into the Pacific. I think he even said words to the affect ( or is 'e'ffect) of, ' ...won't see a real change until that happens'. Maybe this is it? I happened to agree with him. Part of the reason for the MJO stall in 7 is that the wave is having mechanical trouble propagating out of the Marine district, ...I suspect the reason for that stall may very well be because given the west Pacific torque model as it is dispersing off eastern Asia, it may be suppressing/ destructive wave interference. CPC's been blaming it on the La Nina footprint of the hemisphere; they may be entirely right. But I have my doubts whether that part of it is the 'cause' vs more coincidence. The last several ENSO events have performed poorly in coupling to the hemisphere base-line circulation, so suddenly this one is? Okay. Personally, ...I discussed that apparent breakdown over the last years, and that I thought this year would pass the hemisphere in and out of La Nina; ha, if I'm going to be right about that, now might be a good time for your +EAMT to get real. Maybe the MJO then starts propagating into 8 and beyond, if/when that happens.. .There are more individual members on the RMM that appear to curl.. .and I also noticed the operational GFS and Euro version began yesterday, rolling SPV saws through lower Canada - yeah...something could be brewing along the lines of pattern/wave# change.

Funny thing ..it doesn't seem like an ice "threat" to me... Not sure I see a strong enough ageo wind to really offset the conduction temperature of the rain. It's falling through +5 C at 900 mb level...That's pretty fantastically mild not far off the deck. Plus, any marginal icing that gets going utilizing low level initial 30 F, if there's only light drain the latent heat of phase change will have it 32. I wouldn't suggest no ice at all.. Just that it would be like that thing the other day. With some glaze mottling on the car windows, then it's 32.3. Maybe that's all we're talking about. I mean, it'd be weird variant on the "white Xmas" theme to have icicles dangling from power lines and some modest sag on trees and shrubs - love to see it - if we can manage that without losing power, heh. The novelty of ice runs out on me in about 4.8 seconds aft of the lights and white noise of the household going abruptly crypt quite. Obviously this wouldn't likely add up to that, anyway .. just sayin'. Not a huge fan of ice "storms" ... Icing? - sure. Keep the power on though.

I found this beer .. small brewery out of Kansas City - well ...may be bigger now, or no longer exist, not sure. They were called "Sixth Glass." They made this amazing 10.4% potent IPA that had an almost creamy sort of velvety finish to it. It was amazing. It went well with just about any meal, or just nursing during the game - multi utility, and yes... given to the 10.4%, you really only need a couple of them. If downed on an empty stomach, perhaps only one. Amazing beer. Now ... personally, I haven't drank any alcohol in 7 years - despite the marketing pitch above. Ha. But I had to make the conscience choice for better over worse. I wasn't an alcoholic .. .at least I don't think? But, I did at the time feel I was engaging in life style that was not healthy, too often. The proof of that, I was beginning to manifest physical oddities that I don't care to delve into -LOL. Anyway, since stopping, all vitals are vastly improved and I weigh like 180 .. .Turns out, I'm actually a tall slender bloke - not that barrel chested after all. Probably TMI but ...I guess one doesn't always know when a lifestyle is creeping into a dangerous territory. It can be a very gradual process, where one's body adapts over time; meanwhile, the adaptation is muting the sensation of the erosion going on - then there you are ... hosting an uneasy conversation with a doctor...etc. I mean, I wasn't even getting much in the way of hang-overs like ever... Yet I could put away a bottle of wine and one of those IPA's above every night. Go to work fine the next morning... fine. Gradually got to that state over years. So, I suppose I needed the change at the time - duh. But it went painless for me. No withdrawal bullshit or cravings. Nothing. Stopped one night on a dime and never went back... I really only missed the cigars I used to have along with - that's really a nice combination. Really soothing. Tie one one then spark up a blunt... My god, can't believe I used to engage like that. Now? I work out every day crazy -like. I run 10K, then bike 24 miles the next day, then do an hour on the full press Elliptical, and weight train every other work out. Eat organic, high in fruit and veggies. Lots of water. Sleep regular...basically, no life. But hey, I feel topico!

Lol ...I here ya, but I'm into Meteorology scientifically too - not just the experience... I mean I'm not trying to gas-light by saying that - it's just the reason why I bother. That said (and all empathy conferred), I'm not so sure that it ends up rain either. I mean, let's just make it clear; it's less likely to happen the way the GFS. But, suppose the less odds won, it could correct S to atone the -NAO suppression. I also just pointed out...I don't think the Euro is "partly cloudy" ...? That much wind max tunneling under our latitude is likely to induce some light if not middling frontogenic response on the polar side of the wind max axis. The bending of the PP is a tall-tail sign/convergence for there being lift going on overtop... I think that could verify more cloud with mood in the air. The Euro is 33 at 12z in the interior, then 40 in the aftenroon as is, but if correcting - those are colder. The Euro could be exactly right, as is, .. no modulation necessary.. But it's differentiated it's surface evolution compared to the 00z, so it's not like it's putting on a great show in the parade of solutions here. It can be modified around it's essence.

Actually ... doing a model comparison, interval to interval, between GFS and GGEM. The differences really appear to be in the complex stream mechanical handling over the Rockies ~ 48 hours, then notably so over the ~ Chicago longitudes/latitudes. That is where the two begin divergence with surface implications. The GFS has the Xmas S/W/ .. vestige, in the process of shearing out over the eastern Ohio Valley, while it has a flat wave with an impressive wind max over the eastern Plains/Iowa region. The GFS appears to phase this latter S/W into the remnants of the lead; altho remnant as it is, it is enough to positive interfere along a narrow corridor, and we end up with a more impressive/evolved total cyclonic response over and leaving NE. It would likely snow meaningfully for 4 hours of something from RUT-Brian ...maybe down to MHT, NH and PWM. It's not an altogether climate friendly total evolution - it would be anomaly. But I find it if nothing else, interesting that if one hovers their mouse-pointer, over "Prev. Run" ( c/o Tropical Tidbits) and clicks it 10 times beginning at this 12z's 72 hour, the GFS has ended up on that cyclonic look for 10 consecutive cycles. You know ...we've often noted the 101, 'continuity' - can't argue that in this case. It just makes it that much more embarrassing when a model is contiguously a piece of shit - if it comes to that.... The GGEM on the other hand...lets the lead S/W finish deterioration/absorption into the confluence deformation of the -NAO exertion/negative interference. The latter mid west comes in... and does still have enough identity in the total wave-space to at least give cyclonic response ... maybe 1/3 the profile. A lighter event. By virtue of weaker jet fields ( weaker erosion/WAA) it actually allows light mix down to Rt 2... K, adding the Euro to this discussion now too ... It looks even more separated than the GGEM... which really puts it in the diametric camp comparing the GFS. Interesting at this range to be that variant. But one aspect about the Euro - as an aside - the follo-up S/W is actually potent in this run. So much so that as it rounds the semi-permanent TV pig and dives SE, it's bending the surface pressure pattern... Not sure what the IVT/Norlun aspects could materialize, but I wouldn't put that beyond the realm of possibilities, either. There's just a tone of chaos potential with these closely spaced S/W spraying over/through the Rockies over the next 48 hours. I mean, the Euro could be more right in essence, but then necessarily start painting more IVT QPF in future guidance anyway. ------ The short take away here is... the GFS phases nuances more, and that constructively leads to more cyclone response. The GGEM a little less...the Euro even less.

So it probably won't happen - this 26th ordeal ? Or maybe some muted vestige in some arguable sense of it will, but not like the GFS ... We've been wise not to buy. However, there is the fact that other guidance had something similar enough carried along in the their 00z synoptic evolution, that something is/was there in the physic more so than the GFS merely fabricating - which the latter doesn't really happen... but for brevity. What this comes down to as a deterministic critique is either going to be: - why does/did the GFS do this or -why is it that the GFS was capable of picking up on this where the others were so vacant/ or at best low consistency My guess is we will be looking at this along the first of these two questions.

I don't doubt it ..heh.. But is he Met or climate or ?

Who's that ?

"Weather" the current circulation mode of the hemisphere is relatable to CC ... it is, first of all. Because climate change happens because of changes in weather event distribution - to which what is happening now .... IS WEATHER EVENT DISTRIBUTION. It gets old trying to run from climate change behind the mantra that climate doesn't drive the weather. It doesn't ? but that's evasive, really. Because it means the weather events that integrate the climate, are changing. That's just logic. You can't have a warming climate, without changes in the circulation modes .. .because the circulation modes are driving the weather that averages the f'ing climate! Having said that ... it's not why it is not snowing right now.

we should put up a betting pool... Can you imagine the pay-out if 1 person in the 15,000 users put a 100 down the Jet's to win the blizzard bowl and they did ...?

First of all, ... replace that adjective above with something more realistically descriptive ... something like, oh say - brain's blasted out the back of skulls. Secondly, not sure how we can disconnect the latter sentiment from the brain's blow-out model, when the latter is entirely caused by the blown out brains.

Dude, ... yesterday ... when the ice rendered to cold rain... we bucketed over a half inch of rain at 32.8 F