Typhoon Tip

It's really eerily symbolic... like the models are catching something spooky in the act of moving physics around for some weird need to see that happen LOL. Seriously, one school of thought is that the "Globe" part of the G, F, and S model is supposed to mean, in principle, a full planetary integrated system? If thats the case, and the NAO is indeed fated to a nuanced subtlety that allows a system to get to CNE, it might be a model that is more likely to detect that. Just sayn' Or not... I cannot stress enough, tho - the GFS did this three weeks ago with equal panache. Hung it's verification out to dry on a system no other model carried along. For days it insisted... then it finally capitulated. Gone...with like 36 hours to spare. I think everyone's acknowledged this - it's not a new point... But just thought I'd bring it up again.

Yeah... really, it's a fantastic philosophical voyage with that ultimately forgettable thing, huh - I mean - imho - there should be no system with an NAO shunt. I mentioned that last night... crash ... wake up, to find that all model have 'some'thing now. Whaaa So, I think it would almost be a interesting testament to an era where prediction/deterministics may be in an era-specific all-time low, if nothing does happen. That means that every model took turns being a piece of shit waste of electrons and man-hours.

by PV and super .... do you mean as in a hugely +AO ?? Or do you mean one of these SPV buzz saws in Canada - Those are both PV 'flavors' that obviously offset the other. A strong JB presentation is a "weak PV" relative to AO convention/domain geography ...blah blah semantics, but, it is in fact still a strong PV. Sorry but it's worth the distinction... I was just looking over the 00z opertional runs out in the totally mentally responsible time range of D10 ... in a canon muzzle velocity flow regime no less... and taking note at how the Euro operational and the GFS operational, are actually in shockingly good agreement on a very strong SPV rollin' through mid and lower Canada on that day. Neither the EPS nor the GEFs means around that time span agree - these operational version really divorce their ens systems pretty glaringly - if not for the day 10ness of it ... that might seem strange. It's not about whether it happens, but I'm curious "IF" something like the operational blend did ...that might force the numerical EOFs to pop a +PNA by virtue of nadir weighting. These are excessively deep anomalies, such that the delta(HT) scalar values would drive the PNA calculation results, up - believe it or not, this would transiently induce a +PNA calculation:

Umm ... really -

No one asked but ... I really don't care about white Xmas as an experience. I think in my youth it may have been 'neat to see' but ... for having grown up in that late 1970s through the '80s, I was impelled to give up on any illusions in that regard. You know, even those fantastic winters of in the last 70s, I don't think there was a lot of snow around prior to Christmas's, but that's getting close to the event horizon of my quantum emergence ..so my recall is fuzzier. Come to think of it... maybe there is a reason in the song Irving Berlin wrote about "...Dreaming of white Christmas," he dreamed: If it was far more common, ...he wouldn't need to ever dream of it. It would be, "I'mmm dreamin' of seeing friends and family. Without being found after the spring thaw exposed" Anyway, I've been more getting a kick out of watching the technology of man ...struggle to claim the right vision in this hurried entropic circulation that is so anomalous in its own characteristic, it feels like we'd be better off using a crystal ball. There is no statistical/climatology for f'ed up circulation modes - that would be a neat Standard Deviation come to think about it... heh. Like, a period of increasing threat, per assessment, with the caveat emptor being that it is taking place in a +7 SD "veiny" circulation inch ...I mean risk. Talking about the models trying to operate in a -EPO/-NAO, with 15 contours of height gradient mashing the HC so far S it only "looks" like it's not there f'n bums out of winter storms. It is... deal with it. But snark aside, the GFS has failed twice to do what it started insisting again - not lending confidence. For some three day's worth of model cycles, it's been jamming a light to middling S/W and associated ...whatever it can muster, through the NAO deformation wall. Yesterday ... the ICON of all guidance starts nodding. We laugh. Then the Euro, probably the most not-happeningest model that ever no-ed a Debbie Downer depiction ...comes on board with it ... and we still laugh - probably defensively. Can't say we blame... because it's all rain. That's a dark comedy for the winter enthusiasts... when the GFS coups ( finally! ) for butting heads with the NAO deformation wall, it coups with rain. For what it's not worth ( and that's probably a LOT of not ... ), the NAO may actually help bring snow back. If the nuances of the large forcing allows this thing to squirt through, it is just as possible that it actually corrects S over these next couple of days of runs - it is climatologically a better track guidance for -NAO exertion model. The problem is, this fast flow is happening, while the NAO is doing that - that's an unusual combination of very large circumstance, causing oddities at smaller scales. This thing's whole mechanical manifold as it squeezes through is down to meso-beta scaled. It's like trying to target a hurricane!

Yeeeah, but the 'I told you so' isn't entirely fair to the individual whose lived the vicissitudes of climate over the last 20 years of both anecdotal, but most importantly empirically measured climate change. ( Bolded that statement to the straw-man; I'm not making that up...it's not an impression. It's fact) And part of that total/notable climate change manifold has been that the autumns have become increasingly more prone to snow events, earlier than the previous 150 years of perceived climate stability draws those pictures in the elderly mind about what should and should not be according to tradition. Whenever I hear someone with wisdom that is based upon the pre-2000 climate era, I have a sticking point about their perspective as defaulting to a bias: it is one becoming somewhat outmoded because the climate is repainting the canvas of expectation. I am mid aged, perhaps a little older chronologically... but when factoring in modernity and medicine, probably on point - that is, excluding the very real possibility that any one in the ambrosia of slow moving apocalypses, the "innovation" and brilliance our species is causing, ... starts taking people earlier... Anyway, I do remember the late 1970s through the 1990s. That was a significantly different experience compared to the 2000+ decades. In that former span of years, I remember snow in minoring occurrences ...maybe 3 times, prior to Halloweens. A few more times in November and December, but by and large, the vaster majority of years romance with weather was about pining for weeks...and weeks, and weeks over weeks, with no leaves on the trees over chartreuse -browned earth. It was like living reel version of the depressing song, "Life In Mono" - you just felt abandoned by the one and only thing you really cared about as a weather enthusiast at that time of the year. That all changed around 2000. We began ( in spring's too, btw - ) observing snow in October, and increased frequency of significant winter storms, too. Not just packing pellets dancing around car tops under a virga exploded CAA cumulous, either. Even more so in Novembers and Decembers, with far greater frequency. Interestingly ...this has not apparently parlayed very well to immediately ensuing winters but that's a whole 'nother aspect.

Oh it’s gonna be 80 in February … … again

It’s a warm version but late. Considering the previous run was partly sunny. But none of these solutions should really exist … but I dunno. Maybe Ray’s key slot NAO wobble let’s one thru.

GGEM now too-

GFS doubling down on the 26th. Wtf- 980mb low east of PSM. Actually takes it N of BOS … which I think is less likely in this proven NAO influence But it’s got the ICON more fully on board… hinted at 18z, it’s now doing some bizarre narrow corridor quasi Miller B, too both are oddities. Lows don’t typically RI over EEN moving due east thru that latitude.

The GFS has been better this season but I’m not sure it’s because the model is so, or if it’s just because the hemisphere is fast and the GFS happens to be well situated. Hiding a progressive bias in that sense. In any case … it’s attempted insertion of trough mechanics into this atmospheric levee in the NE and had to pull out at 72 hrs … No confidence it succeeds now.

Fwiw - the ICON at 18z began picking up on the GFS’ rogue storm on Boxing Day. Looks like the JMA had it at 12z GEFs trended.

Lol ... the ultimate 'kick the pattern down the road' - talk about next year.

In so far as the notion that "blocks can happen this year" ? sure -

More than less I know why it is over-valued. The NAO was a study done back in the 1960s or something...but was sort of not popularized or really very well lay-known ... until the 1990s, when it became more commonplace knowledge as the Internet provided fuller disclosure of back office discussion content so forth... Blah blah, but it was a perfect storm for popularity... because it was new and 'sounded' awesome. And we had just had a couple of historic winters in the Boston area... upper M/A, with 1994 and 1996 ...etc, and it was attributed. Heh. - the only problem was, the interpretation was overly marketed as the winter invasion for eastern N/A and western Europe. It's true in some sense... but for different reasons. It effects the winter circulation mode, but with different impact. The -NAO limb biases matter too, but by and large, -NAO is a storm look for Brittain, but more of a compression flow look for Chicago to Boston and the EC. It's a matter of scale and degree of doing so. More compression is not good. Less compression depends on what the Pacific loading pattern is actually doing. That was 1994 and 1996. So right off the bat we are having to find narrower windows where it is really actually "good" for winter enthusiasts... But people keep referring back to the specter of the 1990s... even I do it sometimes. Heather Archembault's Master's thesis covers that changing NAO mode as being LESS, not more, correlated to storminess over eastern N/A compared to the mode PNA change. Her paper and it's utility have gotten old at this pint ... jeez by some 25 or 30 years actually ( wow - ). So it's probably been augmented ...who knows. But having less correlation to the primary "storm loading pattern," then, having it be stuck in negative, while we have a -PNA rolling up a ridge axis centered on Dayton Ohio ... that is a destructive wave interference pattern at large scales. And no -NAO will help in that regime if it is hugely negative - it is bad bad bad... It seems the NAO, either forecasting failure or, having it emerge and NOT mean dividends to winter enthusiasm ...has been a recurrent theme with very high recurrent abuse, yet.... posters can't wait to post the telecon. So to answer your question... it's no saving grace, no. Not even close. What it can be used for is an indicator to modulate one way or the other ( 'correction vectoring' ) systems. Part of the other problem is that the -NAO actually comes from the Pacific Rossby wave signal, as it terminates across the Americas. It's called a non-linear wave function. You have A, B, C, D, .... and down stream G grows or falls because of the relationship between B and C ... Linear wave forcing is when A causes B in this sense. But that and the rest of this write is big popsicle headache at this point, no doubt

I've given up on trying to dispel the illusion of the -NAO ... I used to struggle to get that point across, and ultimately ...stopped struggling when it was clear that it never will

It's a godsend for the western U.S. hydro - Probably not a bad thing for them to continue along this course, regardless of what it means here.

Heavy snow warning for 40 days and 40 nights

You know this is impossible to know without the model super computers doing a reanalysis model run technique - say, but I wonder just intuitively, about climate relativity Suppose if we took this exact hemisphere, and transported it back in time to 1950 ... 1980 ...2010 and today, do these respective eras 'do that' in Dallas on December 24? Course, we are talking about model for Dec 24 - it hasn't happened yet. ... But even if stops short in the 80s down there, that's probably what ? + 2 or even 3 SD ?? So the implicit question here is - of course - related to climate change. What makes this complicated, is... climate change may be more influential to the circulation anomaly, than it is to the thermal state of December 24 in Dallas. Like... it could be 90 in Dallas on December 24 1950, but the climate of the hemispheric circulation eddy would less likely promote that oddity from realization. So the difference in favorability, vs a warmer atmosphere - there's a subtle distinction there, but either way, it would be interesting to see if the super computers spit out 90 in Dallas 1950s given the same inputs.

Hmm... ya know folks should really get into the habit of reading the weekly PDF publications that come along with the CPC's RMM graphics. Their summations are on point by Meteorologist, and they offer some crucial insights and suggestions that both enlighten present circumstances/implicaitons, but also as a learning tool? Not trying to be condescending ...but it may help - this was released yesterday, and they tend to date these PDF's at the first of every business week. They begin with these paragraph summations of "key take-aways" ..but they files contain depth, with other graphs relating Kelvin waves and SSTs ...and La Nina interference scaling. I've bold some aspects below that I found intriguing for this week's • MJO indices continue to depict an enhanced West Pacific signal, and upper-level velocity potential anomalies show the enhanced phase crossing the central Pacific. • The amplitude of the MJO has decreased, and the RMM-based MJO index depicts little eastward propagation over the past week due to interference from the La Niña base state and Rossby wave activity. • The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles depict persistent enhancement over the West Pacific, with little to no eastward propagation. It is possible that this signal may reflect a temporary weakening of the La Niña atmospheric response. • There is considerable uncertainty regarding the potential for this MJO event to remain coherent as it crosses the Pacific.

m’ya … never a big fan of v-maxes moving SE either. Boy the -NAO is really evidentially shunting anything that dare attempt it

Starting to wonder if the only way one of these models will ever verify snow coverage is if and only if every last mother fer fully believes otherwise.

Weather modeling will never get around the quantum uncertainty principle; that is the computational dead end … which means the future emergence at scale will always have some fraction of freedom from prediction.

Watch NYC get 2" Xmas eve and SNE gets nothing and likes it -

It's actually a stronger, more evolved sfc system - actually approaching bombogen criteria on this NAM's 18z Not sure I see less amplitude there - unless some other metrics ? One thing it is, is more nucleated and concentrating a core. It's almost like it's maybe confusing this into a TC ...I wonder if the phase diagram/comparison between it and the 12z might show that.