Typhoon Tip

Ahmm, is there a question in this above ?

Yup ... part of my apprehension with the MJO inclusion in all this .. I think it's competing large scale emergence' going on, which causes that sort of 'cavitation' in the wave propagation. The La Nina circulation foot-print ( whether modulated by HC expansion or not... ) is still there, as this wave is attempting to move out of the Marine continent you see there in the RMM.. It's like 'bouncing' ( conceptually ) off as it heads into inhibition as a maybe metaphor. Anyway, as the Asian signal ( growing in the EPS and GEFs ) perhaps gather's momentum out there D10, that will couple with this MJO and that creates a future state of synergistic feedback - they constructively interfere and the outcome exceeds the La Nina inhibition. Para phrasing what I just took readers through above.. But back on point, I think that's why that wave is doing that in the prognostic mean there like that. Note, it's been doing it all along, tho. It's had that curling back as it has emerged over the last week, but the verification keeps "winning" the battle and it's grown in strength anyway. Interesting...

Significant pattern change signaled - just keeping along/adding to what Will and Scott and I have been chirping about since a couple days. It got a little more coherent ( in the right direction ) over night. We see definitive height rises in the WPO region; success with that anomaly distribution change would very likely relay into the EPO domain - triggering the phase change from positive to negative there. This looks like the grears begin to turn around D8 actually ...but may take a the usual 3 to 5 days thereafter to transmit/force signaling down over the continent. This stuff is also orbital - cannot possibly get into extents of regional-concerning anomalies and so forth. But we are in the scaffolding mode of early deterministic/canvas detection for now. The winter enthusiasts should 'like what they are seeing', which is a step up from yesterday's 'pleezy weezy with sugar on top be real' In fact, looking further west over Japan, I am noticing in both the EPS and GEFs ( they agree! holy shit, huh ...) the day 10 to 15 range is plunking L/W heights deeper through the Japan Sea with rather large circumvallate - that's typically more likely related to alterations in the torque/R-wave transmitting down from Asia. In other words, this - albeit still early - pattern change detection, may be anchored hemispheric in scale. I Don't believe these notions are very La Nina supported, not by linear statistical inference with that gunk - but ... mm, as I have been yammering for years now ..that model is being disrupted by climate change/apparent climate change factors, as is being accredited in science and papers emerge. Without getting too deep - I could see an Asian carpet snap roll around the mid latitude and redistribute the R-wave anchor points ... and possibly supplant that La Nina signal which frankly ... we could get into arguments about it merely being weak-moderate in dimensions anyway. If the aforemention factors get overwhelming, bye-bye La Nina... Also, the MJO is rather impressive ... it is still not hugely clear that it will manifest a wave momentum/propagation more over the N side of the Equatorial climate routing, but ... ( hint hint ) I think it may materialize. The above looks regarding the Asian --> western Pac circulation exchange, 'supports' a Phase 7-2 strength, on the N side. It lends to the MJO being in constructive feed-back with the Asian factor ... but in destructive feed-back with the La Nina footprint. To me, the math of this larger telecon juggle works out to 2 constructive interference modes vs 1 destructive interference modes. So the weight likely favors the coupling the MJO to the Asian --> WPO connection, damping the La Nina footprint - how long ...who knows. But, you know how I feel about weak to moderate ENSO's during HC expansion anyway...lol. no but seriously

We still haven’t made climate quota for 2015 yet in some cases. Being 250% above normal that year requires the 1980s to balance that lol.

Funny … the CPC tele isn’t anywhere close to ver extreme. I’ve see that deeper. Interesting

RGEM?

Yeah..agreed - and the EPS is more robust with the NE Pacific height recovery than the GEFs by D10. The only reason why I think there is some hope for D11 -16 ... if biasing later rather than sooner we must, is because it appears there are west Pacific changes in play (maybe) leading. Usually when that happens, the GEFs have to reel by forcing and then they'll show a change more coherently at some critical threshold. The MJO ... it's dubiously contributing, but favorably nonetheless... CPC think's west Pac TC activation may take place - if we can distort the major circulation eddy with flux from these sources, the GEFS may not be seeing that yet The EPS .. not sure if that's exactly what that is, but maybe-

Not to add to the dreary tenor in here but ... Jesus. The D10+ fairy tale range of the GEFs don't really reflect any change, despite what I was mentioning earlier. As they typically do beyond D10, mean fades to that tendency for entropy ( annularity ) flow by 300 .. But, it's refusing to stop face-smacking lol... It's maintaining ghosts of the same positive anomaly nodes way out there anyway.

Oh thanks. Yeah, I'm a bit much for some people, admittedly. While others seem to like, if not appreciate my particular brand of assholier than thou - lol So are you a Meteorologist or some other in environmental sciences ...or? I mean you tucked, 'in their forecasts' in that. Most of us...well, some of us, go back a decade or more at this point of blogging this and bitching that/forum time waste... lol, kidding (well, a little :-) ) Anyway there's some familiarization among a few of us ; I just don't recognize your handle.

I'm looking forward to it my self. But, not just for the deliciously sensible appeal out of doors ...etc. We used to have a surprisingly reliable adage back in my collegiate weather lab dweeb days ... " First it gets warm, then it gets cold: Boom!" ... not always.. I mean, it didn't work out too well in 2006 - it stayed annoying for a month and then took another 10 days to agonizingly break colder. Finally got a storm - I think Valentines... In the interim ...yup, big warm anomalies in route for much of the CONUS. I would surmise greatest confidence [ for personal assault on Holiday season dignity] will be S of the 40th parallel... basically Iowa to NYC. How 'big' those anomalies register here depends on S-SE Canadian wave train. There are some indications among individual operational versions and ens, that an episode or two of confluence may send north and/or b-door bouncers in front of our entrance into the warm party like the rope handler outside the door of Studio 54. If those don't interfere ... that present EPS/ GEFs blend does hearken somewhat back to 2006 and 1999 in my mind. In both Decembers of lore were also examples of unabated S-SE ridge expansion, transporting unusual 850 mb above climo. Both those years I recall a 70F afternoon or two during -

I'm sure this has been mentioned - all do creds and salutations ... But, there is some modest NORLUN aspects about this Wed night system, where despite the models having coalesced around a surface track really too far out to be meaningful, there is a fair amount of mid level wind anomaly still moving SW-NE over us. This trough's open wave appeal has the wind momentum aloft smear back W-N ..etc. Anyway, that tends to want to add some lift to the column in my mind. SO ...I open the NAM and there it is; both the 32 and 12 km version do lay in a 6 hour stationary band of frozen QPF from roughly EEN to Logan by 50 miles either side. The 3 km is more of a smear but it does 'fill in' with it a bit. ...I mean, it's just the fact that they do - Also, as an aside and for how little it is worth, the ICON ( of bad performance ) model, has been actually trending west. I am wondering if the RGEM is liking some NORLUN/ IVT suggestion too ? Maybe that's more of a meso-beta scale phenomenon and these alternate model types do tend to have insight in those scales - unfortunately ( tho ...) about as much as they also day dream there.

Questions remain as to whether the wave momentum and related latent heat fluxing/forcing in the dispersion model will remain south of the Equatorial band, however. Through last week, the publications by CPC had an ongoig mantra implying that forcing would be primarily 'south based' Primer blah blah: The problem with that ( for the N. Hemisphere ) is that the Equatorial band represents a kind of 'wall' in free space - like an atmospheric asymptote in some sense... Which by constraint, there is limited mass exchange across that virtual boundary. Such that a wave propagating ( primarily ...) south of the Equator, does not force upon the N. Hemispheric eddy. The Hadley Cell is split along the Equator, with the rising motion moving away at higher elevations ( I had posted an illustration of this a few pages ago....). The caveat on that is if the wave laterally grows in the N-S coordinate, which can happen and through that 'wall' - wave mechanics are different than Coriolis driven circulation systems. Anyway, should the wave its self begin manifesting propagation over the N side, then we start dumping LH and we're on... Another concern... the La Nina foot-print is in destructive interference with MJO waves phase 7 around the horn to 2's. ..etc. That means that usually ( but not always) the total Hemispheric eddy would offsetting these MJO's leaving the Marine continent - suppression. The new weekly PDF publication: they have opted not to mention the southern propagation bias - I don't know if that implicitly means that wave 'has grown N' or not. Since they are mentioning the west Pacific TC activity - that would tend to suggest it does. So, ... hm, we'll see. But if recurving TCs enter the discussion, that definitly changes the map on whether LH flux gets involved with the WPO ejection routes across NP. ... I mean, that's like a full-on vaccine syringe injection of plaguing shit circulation cure right there - maybe. But that's a maybe that is not merely hope - but something to look for. I also find it interesting that the extended GEF members are hinting at some Siberia- Alaska regional height rises. I have noted ( personally ..) in the past, that sometimes these regions will begin to manifest rising heights ( lowering EPO phase ) prior to the advent of the W. Pac cyclone(s)... It's always sort of made me wonder which is really the chicken vs egg in the pattern change.... This is wandering into a way too long didn't read territory for iPhone swipers but ... that seems to suggest the TC capturing adds/positive re-enforcemet to pattern change that is already in place, if too nuanced to see right away. Interesting....

Plus the GFS keeps trying to pinch off the bottom of that trough just before the warm-up farther out there. I don’t know if you guys been noticing that but again the GFS is probably high on everybody’s shit list right now

The point was …,one of those two factors screwed this up in the case of the euro is definitely D amped the pattern in which this passed thru - it did not get feedbacks I’ve been watching it all week in the case of the GFS it timed it wrong . that’s model performance “models don’t perform well in these circumstance” - namely speed. Which also it’s kind of counterintuitive but I think the GFS nuanced with too much curvature in the larger scale flow earlier on, why it was getting a feedback sooner

‘Course …after the Gfs served for three days worth of runs, lies, …any takers

The euro D amplified it. The GFS had bad model performance… We can cut it up all we want

That post should ensure a foot …

This was called out days ago tho - systems deamp coming into shorter range. - model skill is inherently worse in this hemispheric circumstance. For whatever reason drives those observable biases … it doomed the GFS notions that originally triggered the enthusiasm for this thread. Heh. The upshot is the Euro needed a win … It may not nail all fields precisely but at this point probably righter

Looks like it brings the goods around 54 but ...that to me doesn't diminish the notion either way, because it doesn't just get all the sudden un-hindered of bias at 48 hours, either. Plus... f'n NAM

Getting into the earlier ages whence it it becomes lesser wise to question the guidance particularly < 80 hours. But having the Euro be that far S/suppressed compared to the GFS ... does tend to force needing to ask the question in this case. Weird. 'specially this close. The NAM notoriously has a NW bias over the western Atlantic > 48 hours out for these type of ascending waves. Actually ... I don't see that as not being the case with everything, really -

Glad to hear you are alright, Jerry. I can tell you from personal experience, the vertigo thing out of no where is very disconcerting - down right scary. And it can be anything! Hopefully it's as simple as an antibiotic for inner ear or something. When I had mine, I had just finished a final exam, Junior year in college when out of the blue, no sense of up down right left fore' or aft. I literally had to pat the walls of Ball Hall with palms, and feel my way back to my dorm through the tunnel to Smith Hall - which doesn't exist now ( UML ). Anyway, passer-byes were looking at me like, 'Is that dude alright' - it was the weirdest scariest to this day, unexplained episode. It cleared up in a couple of hours and the rest of that night I was sort of in a fugue but nothing else. But I ended up having CTC scan and all this blood work - terrified that I was going to be told I had a brain tumor or some shit. Nada - ... phone call came and everything was negative. "Yeah, but why - " ... was told it's just sometimes weird things happen. That was the answer I got. Seeing as that was 25 years ago - ...I think I'll be okay . Sounds like you will be too. But to this day, sometimes I wonder if that will ever strike again.

Oh it’s suspect for sure … the “day 10”-ness might give a clue. at least it’s not a grinch storm … grinch week instead. Lol

It's day 10 ...ha. It's denoted 'clown range' for a reason ... obviously we know that - my point is that I'm not too bothered by it because for one.. we've seen this about every 3rd or 4th day in the past two weeks, and then it gets muted some... Some sort of warm up is more likely than not, but the scale and "degree" of it is "up in the air"

Nothing screams holiday glee like this D10 cosmic rays burst coming at us out of the EPS ...

Did he give any indication what was going on ...?