Typhoon Tip

Tomorrow may make 91. It's funny where we were with the modeling ideas for today and tomorrows, as stood 5 days ago. Especially the GFS, which had 50s in mist when not raining east wind shits. 52 92 That's why we always trust a 5 day depiction LOL BD still there but a bit less intrusive in recent runs. Unclear ... As I just mentioned to Saguaro, it's more apt to happen than not in a -NAO. But as is, the BD is delayed 6 to 9 hours, and, it also appears to wash out before even getting to NYC. hmm. Not sure I'd trust that if CT. If the -NAO is regime does pin a 50/50-like vortex ivo of NF, a boundary between continental heat ejected from the W will set up between. Experience alone teaches us that if see one on the map ice-bergs knock on the door in Atlantic Georgia. heh. If the new runs were to continue the back-off trend in an equal redraw, that keeps the boundary to about PWM or so and we swelter through Tuesday. I am not personally leaning that way

Right ( bold ..). And we're still getting inconsistencies in the position of the BD's movement over time. Latest guidance seems to backed off on that. Five days ago, the Euro had no clue that a BD would be there. None of them did. Then the GFS hinted ( uh oh...), four days ago but the Euro still carried a big heat signal with less of that... Three days ago they were all in, though, and the heat was completely redrawn... 97 to 57 style. Thing is, BD party pisser in the models is/was a correlative fit for -NAO ... ( I mentioned this in the presently marooned June thread that Jerry started). Then, these last two day, the models deepened the 50/50 vortex, pinning it in place ... A BD should really intrude. It's like 'why in f spend time on such minutia' ... I think being 92 versus 60 is pretty impressive correction to have to deterministically negotiate if one is a forecaster. Here we are two days ...those over-arcing themes are still in place, yet the Euro trends considerably less in both the 00z and 06z versions. The GFS too ...The GFS ... in a rare show of parity - For a forecaster .. it's a good thing this contention wasn't during today and tomorrow - lol.. Because the variation across the boundary could be as much as 54 at BVY, to 94 at EWR (Beverly Mass/N shore of Boston vs Newark, NJ). It would make a difference for yard and pool parties, huh

I'm with this guy at this point.. San Francisco Giants manager: ‘I don’t plan on coming out for the anthem going forward until I feel better about the direction of our country’

Snowing around Lake Winnipeg on June 2nd, GFS and GGEM. Huh. I don't think I've ever seen that. I'm not entirely sure what the climate for piece of shit weather is for that area of Manitoba, but that geography isn't hugely far N of the U.S. border in terms of Meterological scales, so I wonder.. This seasonal lag stuff due to velocity surplussing, and holding onto R-wave identities longer into the warm seasons... is a real thing. It's mechanizing weird cold plumes into mid latitudes that turn around to 90s. All you'd have to do is have that thing over western Ontario, and N VT upslopes snow.

You're going out of your way to spin/characterize them by using that turn of phrase - Again... it may have 'look like' that was the case, but that may not have been their intent.

Mmm ... I think the entire scenario is transcending frustration, no doubt. As the civility begins the insurmountable task of processing the boundless scale in atrocities of that godless day, ...shock will surely first fade to anger. And don't get us wrong, that anger is truly justified. It's righteous indignation then elevated to a state apoplectic rage, proportional to the crime - only this? Has not proportional anger. It even transcends that. But, the human condition needs targets to 'structure.' The structure alleviates. This is just the way people are. One does not have to be a psychologist to know this - just having suffered the vicissitudes of U.S. woes over the last 30 years is sufficient to see things in this way. Enters ...the blame game. It is probably too early in this crisis to take away people's target - particularly when that target gives that structure, which is the only avenue available right now that immediately, though falsely, ameliorates the boundless sorrow and vexation ... etc. The blaming is still 'group transference,' though. And, as is usually the case... it will carry on in a irreconcilable row, probably go to far ( prediction) - when the real target needs to be the societal norms and culture that enabled the happening in the first place. I know you didn't ask for any of this - I'm not intending to lecture or bloviate ...just op-ed here. The police/emergency responders initially may have made the wrong decision in how to handle the situation. But what was the right situation? Anyone blaming them for not "rushing" the assailant, initially, should realize that the first step in a hostage crisis or negotiation is to not pull the trigger of the assailant. Rushing doesn't end well. This situation is being exposed, on going ... What kind of weapon was the assailant using? If it was a semi-automatic rifle muted by a silencer tech, through the brick and steel of the edifice? Responders may not have known there was active discharges until it was too late. Later on...that might "look like" they let it happen by masses of people caught up in the rage and seeking targets to resent ... There's a lot of generalizations being sewn out of fragments of truth that may not really fully yet stitch the whole reality. I can imagine there are component threads that can be sewn to together to make them look like they sat by cowardly and "let" blood run to protect them selves - If time proves that is the case, it is what it is. But that strikes me as a bit over the top. In any given community or group, there's typically one or two of those self-preserving types that would fail that group of people - seldom do they ALL calculate like that. We would be talking about an entire retinue of responders deliberately avoiding the central tenet, to protect and to serve, doing so along the entire marshal ranks of command no less. Heh... I'm going to let time surface more truth and clarity. I don't mean to suggest the officers were not at fault - I'm just not ready to impugn the whole system of a social support over this just yet. That's a whole 'nother quasi anarchistic suggestion where people really don't want to go whether they realize that or not.

It is ... It's a specter portrayed, beginning about 3 days ago in the guidance, and since they've all agreed ...some more or less aggressively, that the previous big heat suggestion is getting completely obtruded by that aspect bullying in like cops showing up precisely 2 minutes before the party would have really gotten good. heh I am a little suspect of any solutions that 'hold it back' like a pregnant water balloon full of cold air and mank, tenuously unpopped, down into Essex Co in NE Mass. If it gets to that point it gets to TTN NJ

It actually looks like a below normal for couple of weeks of June is in route - Tanked AO typically doesn't matter so much by this point in the calendar year, but it is in this case it's markers are actually reaching down into the mid latitudes ...driving NAO bocking nodes ... Seems to overwhelm the -PNA. The models have just sort of given up on the Pacific and just given carte blanch to the idea of blocking demolishing warmth/suppressing below the 40th parallel. And the extended hemisphere doesn't appear to change that until the 10th of the month. If I saw these in January I'd be looking for a systemic correction event ... Obviously telecons don't correlate the same way in summer,. no. But, the ens ,means and oper versions, et al, are reflecting the exertion nonetheless. It's funny, ... a week ago we were panicking over a Mem Day butt bang, followed by a heat wave next week... Interesting how matters have morphed so precisely opposite. That BD looks like a 40 mph gusting trees swaying whip lash cold insert Tuesday. It may be 76 at 9 am, and 53 at 9 pm across eastern NE. And then the ridge decays and mooshes the heat south there after. The westerlies dip beneath ORD-BOS line and that's the ball game.

Members of Senate are blocking/filibustering legislation put forth by Democrats - ...and that's unfortunate, that word "democrats" Because this is not something that should be politicized - obviously to anyone on the intelligent side of sanity. But the "functioning psychosis" of what the system has become, is operatively guided by political boundaries; in obstructing passages based upon the origin/source of the legislation, rather than base upon the merits and virtue of what's contained in document, logically means they are preserving something else. Steve Kerr is right - the motivation for doing that is ultimately not to piss off the constituencies that put these turkeys into power. ...The filibuster antics are thus to preserve their seats. They need to be forced to give a semi-automatic rifle a blow job before they realize what their priorities should be, because to choose their seats over massacre, is tantamount to sociopathy - the sarcasm to suggest they will only be forced to change when it effects themselves, because that's how sociopaths operate. We're likely to witness the dissolution of the U.S. - or perhaps descent into civil duress or war, before guns would ever be gathered up and outright made illegal to commoners. However, the next better recourse would be to ratify universal background - within which criteria can be and would be fashioned to make it compulsory, mental states among other gems about an individual, designed to ferret out a person's true motivation, intent and purposes for seeking to own a guy.

I know - just heard. That is weirder for some reason than hearing about other celebs.

It's interesting ... if one is a tedious nerd ( lol ) ... No but it could be a 'warm continental look,' while not resulting that way over eastern NE - which doesn't take a lot of prose to explain how/why if one knows anything at all about this region's climate. 'Blah blah bd have you any wool' The problem emerged more so over the last 24 hours, so 4 cycles of models. The Euro and GGEM bit really hard on the BD idea in the 00z run. So much so that we actually would put together a negative high temp anomaly on Tuesday and Wednesday - complete 180 reversal. This is one those places in the world where late mid range model error can be so excessive as to be diametrical. I mean, two days ago, 95-100 near historic heat wave, poof! 55 F BD joy destroyer. I guess it's better than the 1980s, when it would happen on the day its self. I remember a couple of memorable BDs in mid to late 80s where the forecast was 90 the night before a day that wound up slate gray with cool passing mist. It used to be short duration error/correction - blind sided. At least now the tech is sophisticated enough to at least be sensitive to it at extended leads. The question is, how much or little in this situation. Thing is, I can see this going either direction - interestingly, the last 2 runs of the GFS have done just that. The 06z removed the BD entirely..The 12z brought it half way back. Which means it has had 100% in both directions in the last 24 hours worth of runs. My thing is the -NAO. 1 It's been progged in the various guiadance for some time. As is usually the case...it is stochastic within the frame-work of the daily model depictions. Whether the blocking is biased over the western domain, or east...matters. The east may allow the wave spacing room to pass the flow flatter off the Maritimes... But if it bumps west more, that probably parks 50/50 sort of aspect there and we'd be doomed to cool departures in a warm pattern. 2 The other aspect on that is, the -NAO is notoriously over-sold/constructed at this range... 3 ...Related to that, we are still seeing vestiges of a progressive pattern. It's why the closed low got abolished from the runs recently, transforming the outlook for Mem Day substantially improved. But that tendency doesn't really lend to NAO blocks. If #2 and #3 prevail, these recent BD/heat cancel ideas are model hoaxes and we roast.

Depending on how fast this circumstance translate through the area, these positive tilting/ albeit weakening total trough spaces can sometimes over produce - the synoptic signal gets surpassed by the convection rain rate ... at local scales. But the positive tilt of the trough, maybe some quasi training too. Anyway, nice cloud photogenic displays with crispy TCU. Like that! Saturday ...New England... Diurnal heating amidst lower 60s surface dewpoints will likely yield 250-1000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon. A frontal segment will move east across the region during the afternoon and provide a focus for isolated-scattered thunderstorm development. A couple of locally intense multicells may yield wind damage or marginally severe hail for a few hours before diminishing.

When I think about this ... "radicalism" leaps to mind ... Example, it is really no different than 'radical Islamism' - if people need the awareness aid. To corrupt and manipulate the context, thus, evade the purpose of any formal scripture - be it holy or not, in this case Islamism and the Quran interpretation - in order to justify acts of immorality or psychosis, versus, manipulating the context of the 2nd Amendment of the constitution, in order to supply justification of what the 2nd Amendment NEVER INTENDED TO REALLY PROTECT, what's the f'ing difference? Orders of degree in egregiousness doesn't make it more or less right or wrong. Whether we corrupt the intents and purposes of the 2nd Amendment, to evade the immoral truth, people want to be able to SHOOT OTHER PEOPLE, or do so to topple the Towers of Babylon, 9/11, it's still corrupting the intents and purposes of scripture to supply some sort of pseudo frame-work, attempting to escape culpability. I just see a truism nested in the motivation for the manipulation in this case... call a f'ing spade a spade, might help clarify matters and what's really at stake: 'I want to be able to shoot people.' Otherwise, why own the gun. At the end of the day, their is an incontrovertible chain of logic that put the onus on the gun owner, logic that can only controverted if said chain of reasoning is evaded by pointing to the 2nd Amendment "debacle" ( not debate) - sort of like how Filibusters stone wall bill passing, but they are evading the moral red hand truth of it all. The only way else around that is to just admit one carries no moral restraint when it comes to shooting people. Just admit it. Because then there is no need for all the tactical evasion, that's all it is at the core. People want to retain the right to shoot people, without actually saying so... And are hiding behind the false dogma of the Constitutional scripture to protect a right they are completely falsely believing they have. Who would ever ratify the right to shoot someone - I mean, as a codified statute? ...c'mon. It's all laughable really. Our population has a selfish bias ... we don't think of things as a problem until the hurt us personally. This debacle has gone on long enough. Actually, that's probably actually humanity-scale thing LOL.... Shy of that exceptional awareness, it's all based on systemic delusion and lies ... turned over and tilled into generations, it is all but the mud in the bricks of institution.

That last example of that playing out was particularly frustrating ...but the frustration - for me - was really not the low level lag ... it was that WPC can't or don't and won't account for that some how, some way, in their surface synopsis. Like you intimated ...and they had the warm front up near Fryeburg Maine while Bedford Ma was still 68 with ESE flow. Fitchburg was 78 and BDL was 90 ... I mean it did flood through later in the day ( Saturday) but it took hours to get that lowest 2,000 feet really down to the Earth.

All three are bullying that look in as a party crash/new look ... we'll see. They seem to have opted to park a vortex near or SE of NF, which is a continuity break. But also causes that BD to get sent SW... We're talking about D6 so it could just be another peregrination to fend off. The N Atl. isn't the best modeled domain of the models.

It appears the GGEM and GFS favor a short total wave length ( i.e., the ridge is 'sharper' in the up down circuitous structure), as it centers over ~ eastern OH. The Euro was as amplified in the z-coordinate heights, but it was also not as short in that regard - fwiw. The new run is coming out now, so we'll see. The GFS has been fighting this next ridge/heat surge... But the former two are MCS tracking/favoring. They also would not likely allow uninterrupted heat- they both outright show a Tuesday am screen door slamming flag whipping backdoor blast. Whether that happens or not... that's what they are showing. Tuesday afternoon has most of eastern NE with temps down into the 50s before dark, and probably slate skies have slabbed in from the NE in those depictions/handling. It's suspicious that immediately the following afternoon, it's rolled back out and flooded the region back close to 90. That's atypically too fast. But ...it's all moot if the synoptic wave lengths are being erroneously shortened -a flatter ridge orientation wouldn't allow any of that to begin with.

I've bloviated over this in the past ...but paraphrasing the sociological blow-back phenomenon: It's rudimentary pacification syndrome ...heh. I am making that phrase up, but, at at rudimentary level, there's just enough access to provision and leisure accesses to population, it has over successive generations since ... ameliorated immediate senses urgency, both in the individual, but integrating to communities and bulk-communities ...eventually all of cultural moves along with those modes of thinking. Little longer op-ed: Humans are slaved to their corporeal senses... Those being, sight and sound, touch, taste and smell, etc? If a 'threat' does not immediately appeal to one of those, there is less impelled reaction. That does not exactly parlay into several generations later, having evolved compulsory checks and balances and/or a basal moral/ethical system that keeps gun purveyors and psychotics, in check, does it. No. Among other shitty aspects of it all, it doesn't fix those either. As an aside, good luck getting global warming across, when it is really invisible. That thing has 0 advocates. We were musing in a text stream over this ... it's like we are in a slow moving 'quasi' anarchy-like, dystopian meltdown. The 5 minutes scene isn't dense enough to see it. But spread out over 5 or 25 years ... we do sometimes see cars overturned on fire. Bricks thrown through windows. People tearing down streets wielding guns and knives. Ransacking. Spread out over longer time spans, there are examples of all those ... much, much closer to reality than merely symbolic, actually taking place. Be it rushes on department stores. Mass shootings. Violence and sporting events more and more commonplace ... wtf do we think that shit is, when laws, much less mores, provide no deterrence ?! We are currently in a slow cooking frog phenomenon, and it is we that turn up the heat... That resulting incidences carry shame, yes. But the real shame is on evolution. It provided human kind with a unique ability for cause->effect calculus, yet we don't do the math. Or, often times, ignore, spin truth, rationalize the results on the other side of the proverbial equals sign, if it doesn't fit into our self-centered ways and means.. Unless making the dumb decision actually incurs a consequential pain, the other human motivation circuitry takes over. And it's unfortunately that is where the darker side of humanity lurks. Despite all conceits and conventions to the notions that people are basically good - that is the dumbest f notion ever. No, they are not. Not in a system of provision, where scarcity no longer teaches, or by circumstance, keeps relearning the the lessons of what is really valued, and thus appreciates. That failing is always in place now in modernity less guided by those curbs. And really, since the Industrial Revolution made it plausible that all echelons, despite however impoverished, still do in general escape the over-shadowing existential fears that those countless heredity's prior to the "invention of surplus" - which the industrial revolution brought an escape to humanity - lived in fully. It's really like we are not evolved enough to handle the power and impunity.

Yup... exactly what I imagined would be the case... the GFS is petty in fabricating any possible physical reason to not bring heat east of the Hudson permissible by its electron consumption. At least nowhere near the proficiency of the Euro. I don't care about getting the heat here so much, but ...I just hate the GFS and feel it's fraudulent as a guidance some times - like some percentage of it ( frustration hyperbole) is 'faked' with params that get exposed at times. But looking at the ens means of those respective camps ... looks like the operational GFS might be too sensitive in those idiosyncrasies it's doing. Like, hold onto a single contoured closed 500 mb, and then moving it so rapidly around a clockwise rotation into the SE U.S.. It made sense with the bigger version of this that happened a couple weeks ago, but this thing is tiny by mass field comparison, and moving clockwise is reverse angular torsional and should cause it to spin down/be less able to offset that NVA influence from that movement through the medium. It's just hanging onto it too long - K.I.S.S. In the foreground... it would also be nice if the Euro is more correct because it saves Sunday and Monday. The GFS spent one run looking more Euro like...and we had agreement with those two guidance. But summarily overnight, it tries to go half way back ...which is just enough to ruin the holiday. It's almost comical.

Just a comment on the Euro: That is a climate event on the 00z cycle. The hyperbole in that bold is to connote, it has more significance in the total circulation mode than a run-of-the-mill heat wave That represents 3 consecutive runs from this model source showing this - and all three worked dangerously elevated HI values throughout the Corn Belt/Lakes region. Yesterday's subtly less 12z complexion, comparing to the prior 00z run, I believe pretty strongly was just the diurnal respiration of the troposphere, where at the dawn end of the cycle deflates compared to the ballooning at the other end. In other words, ...accounting for that 'diurnal tide' all three of these runs, back-to-back, appear to be quite similar, thus demonstrating high continuity. It's op-ed on the Euro in a vacuum; verbatim, that's a nasty nasty rip-and-read - and again. Only this time, the suggestion yesterday that the Corn Belt/Lakes heat might destine into NE ...is outright depicted to do so. ...now, there's other guidance. 06z cycle, notwithstanding too. It even goes out with a whimper at the end of that run. An aspect about these bigger climate buster events, they tend to 'fade away' - perhaps at the rate of the planetary wave function(s) that foot them. ..etc. the a speed of R-wave migration. They don't end with the big Hollywood idea or visualization. Not always true though...I think 2012 had a heat wave like this that ended in a derecho.

Euro has back to back 98 F days in NE Mass next week - that's about as high as I have ever seen a 2-meter product on a D8/9 chart from that particular guidance source ..for whatever that is worth.

Actually ...it's attempting to surge the heat in ... capping/CIN on Monday. But prior to that, the more trough coherence over Friday/Sat actually reenters the possibility of more convection concerns.

Reminds me of the opposite season in the old days of modeling ... A day 7 GFS would sometimes depict a pancaked flow escaping the east coast ... all but completely flat. Then, in one run it'd go from nondescript kink on a boundary ,fleeing seaward, to a full-on Norwegian model low replete with coastal impacts. Seemingly abbra cadabra

I was just thinking that... lol - like wtf honestly though, d6 - right? I mean the models sort of have the right to correct things at this range. I'm not sure we should skewering any of then. I mean not that anyone has, just sayn'

I mean that's more than caving - that's not even in the same f'n zipcode for sensible weather. Lol I posted about this, this morning ...that the GFS really should begin correcting and modulating toward the Euro - This was an even bigger leap in doing so than I imagined would be the case for the single/next run. I figured it'd be a 2 steps ahead 1 back. But this? I mean, that's a whole scale redraw.

I didn't think the 00z Euro was that bad. The 06z may be 'better' or whatever, but the 00z layout was weak gradient and UN-GFS like. It actually looked like it had some convective nature to the QPF sourcing, ...maybe some entertaining thunder? But the 850s are mild to warm, and that whole thing opens up a little bit on the 30th ... Anything is better than the GFS ... man.