Typhoon Tip

Okay ...so, accepting that the morning ( at minimum) is defeated ... how can we get out of this? Satellite reveals layers. There's a mid level deck with probably upper air debris, moving off in tandem. Should peel away from western regions over the next hour, and hopefully... solar processing through the total sounding accelerates that as it goes so that we don't have to wait through noon to get it to slide off eastern areas. There is some back building over SE NY but is at a slower pace to the total motion. As that occurs, it will expose the low level strata and even ground fog - we have that locally... but I gotta think that's common at least in the valleys and dales. That then sequentially evaporates. This low gunk is actually not that uncommon in an entry into a heat scenario... but the timing of this elevate layering is retarding what would otherwise typically be a rapid recovery by now.

Wow. Fifty f'n three. That 00z GGEM shows 850 mb temperatures exploding to 20 to 22C, N-S from CNE to the SE zones, by 00z tonight. I admit ... I never performed a super discrete detailed colonoscopy on the BL mechanics for this day, back whence even I caved and started marketing its significance. I just assumed with the morphology of the 925 and 850 mb layering, and the general synopsis, we should end up with partly to mostly sunny open soaring readings straight out of the dawn. In my hopeless defense ... I did originally maintain that it's harder to 'big heat,' this part of the continent, in a pattern like this, some week ago. I'm kicking myself for caving. I dunno. Almost seems poetically justifying that it bites in the ass. LOL I guess... I decided to reverse that tempo and give a nod to the notion that sometimes anomalies happen too. You and I also were just having discussed how New England hasn't yet really experienced the synergistic heat wave yet. This would not have been it, no. But, the general idea of heat tending to over perform ... I started having trouble holding that back conceptually there. It didn't help that all models then painted 90s; that really too elegantly completed the deception. We'll see where it goes.

We may make up for it in the afternoon .. but grading the day in quarters ( say..), what a bust this morning. My my my. On a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being the most egregious ... this is really too terrible to even rank on that scale. 60/60, wet with drizzle. Big heat needs launch pads. But falling short of that necessity, so does 90 really. 90s are going to be a neat trick, without something rather unusual. The biggest morning to afternoon turn around I have ever personally observed was a June day in 1987. 64/62 with morning dense overcast and occasional rain/thunder, burst into a warm sector around 1pm and both the T and TD soared to 87/72. E-central Massachusetts. Satellite imagery reveals a region with jammed in multi-layer cloud density clear to the Hudson, and looping suggests back-building along that western edge. We also have a leaf-wobbling NE drift here just to make fun of us? I mean I'll be the first to admit to my own failing in being conned by morning's with bad first reveals, in the past, and having to reverse my perspective at 11 or 12... I don't doubt there will be improvement. It may even get uncomfortably warm and humid. 86/68 is relative win in that regard. But 90s? Good luck

The 850s won't mean much if the wind is S. ...blah blah indirect southerly marine contamination etc. The last two days had the wind more westerly, but this stupid v-max that's falling apart ( actually...) was trying - in the NAM anyway - to monkey wrench the wind into a S direction, basically eliminating Saturday from even 90 from eastern CT to eastern Mass... The 18z NAM is warmed substantially. It's probably not as much factorable. If you are right about the 850s, and wind does become WSW established during the day... less clouds, it will be interesting if the mixing depth gets that high. mm, 18C adiabat from that sigma supports 91 or so... but... that doesn't account for the 100 meter to surface super adiabat/slope toward the right. It's more likely that 94 as the ping high. If the wind is west and less clouds, and the 850s are warmer ...I think the Euro is closer to 20? no - anyway, it will be interesting if the 850 is the adiabat; that probably puts 96 .. 97 into the parking lots and urban gang decision making -lol

Exceptional heatwave signaled ... one that may significantly outclass tomorrow and Sunday - should the signal work. Broadly scope to finite considerations: 1 La Nina spring --> summer relays, are notorious heat producers over the eastern continental middle latitudes. 2 Erstwhile propensity for rebound eastern N/A ridging ( below the 60th parallel) and the Pacific relay into western N/A nearing -1 SD, combined, are a correlative fit. 3 Operational guidance and ensemble means (among the three majors) have been hinting at the emergence of a more important ridge anomaly ballooning over the #1 and #2 inference ... That converging teleconnector nods to the conceptual value of those model runs that are doing that. I wouldn't suggest the 18z GFS is right - obviously for it's being Day 9 through 13. But I suggest looking for model solutions like this going forward, spanning that period of time. This is for 'proof of concept' I may start a thread over the next days at some point if it gets more confidence.

E wind made it here... 78 to 67 in 20 minutes. Air carries just a soupcon of oceany scent to it, too, in Ayer, some 35 mi from the water by wind. Man, talk about a geography hell bent of ruining a warm summery vibe. It was about to transition into one of those utopia evenings, with comfortably tepid air and distance Lilac aromas. good energy - Now,... low tide and soul suppressing cold - This is gonna have to be one hell of an impressive warm flip - and it's not even clear that there's a real warm front in place. The boundary WPC is analyzing, doesn't seem to differentiate.. The real warm air is W of the Apps still. So, now that Labrador is pissing on the evening festivities... it'll probably have us all the way down to 58 - yet it's supposed to be 94 tomorrow. It'll be interesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/19/us/blackouts-summer-heat-extreme-weather/index.html

Hey Brian ... can I call you ?

I mean it's like an homage to hour special little meteorology here that WPC doesn't apparently know how to account for/ or is even aware. I mentioned this morning ... but that loop clearly smacked of a shallow/diffused BD having crept into eastern sections prior to dawn. FIT and ORH have been variable/averaging S/SW ....while BOS - BVY axis has been ENE all morning up under that latex paint. It's breaking up now. Also, the SW motion from early wrt to the masses off the shore has also ceased and appears to be moving back N. Looks like it's washing out. Logan still E at 9mph though.

Probably lesser known ( ... even lesser do many care - lol ) but there is a western Europe/Eastern N/A mid-latitude teleconnector that is positively correlated. When they are warm, we tend to be warm, and when they are cool, we tend to be cool. That, like all telecon's, probably has a better correlative significance in winter than summer. However, as I've op-ed'ed a few times over recent years, ... we have seen seasonal lag effects into spring, particularly with regards to the ambient total wind energy at mid latitudes, and that having those surplus mechanics tends to organize R-wave structures that last longer than is typical for AMJ ...etc, etc. That suggests for me that telecon's may be more useful - they work because of the geometry of R-wave distributions being planetary-footed, so if you have them, logic follows... etc. Long of the short, I think this, "Several southern French towns sizzled in record high temperatures for May on Wednesday, while the month as whole is on track to be the hottest since records began, the national weather service said. " as found (c/o) here, https://phys.org/news/2022-05-french-towns.html ...bears some pattern correlative weight up and down the eastern seaboard. Keeping in mind, these things don't necessarily line up exactly in space and time, either. That's why the correlation coefficiencies never = 1. But, sufficed it is to say... (barring the NAM's getting cute with E CT/ RI and E Mass removal) ...the weekend's +2 SD heat from DCA to PWM, and what could be episotic significant heat returns through the first week of June ( based upon the 'tenor' and trend of the operational runs, over a canvas of the ens mean suggestions), fits the lesser known model. As an aside, these scenarios are tough... We are likely to put up a warmer than normal month, any given month, do to the on-going CC ... if only by decimals, but warm nonetheless. Other months may be substantially more. These sort of special warm patterns may get too far embedded in those decimals and harder to parse apart. Having a random month be modestly cooler than normal, still not impossible, actually obfuscates matters even more.

Heat's very fragile.. It's almost impossible to hold a big heat signal for days leading - of all headline-able events in weather, it's probably the lowest deterministically until perhaps 36 hours preceding. Also, morning hi res vis loop suggests some sort of weak or even diffused BD crept into eastern/NE regions prior to dawn. The motion out over the waters is clearly <--SW ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Meanwhile, ORH's sfc wind is WSW/SW aver direction, while Logan up to BVY are ENE... It's not likely to dictate the day, just that it was cool look - heh, literally.

NAM is using that to cancel the heat for eastern CT/RI/E Mass ... interesting. It kinks around the pressure pattern and instills a light SE flow that doesn't turn around. Sunday becomes the warmer day, but then the main front's sped up in the various guidance and we're probably getting more clouds that day - if that's true. So, the big heat/record aspect might have just sailed. Not sure it's right, but not impossible I guess.

yeah...and seems like the heat wants to arrive on the aft heel of that, too.

that thing in southern Missouri looks suspiciously like a landphoon

Looking over/analyzing the NAM's sounding... I think it is too shallow with the BL depth, given this synopsis through the weekend. MET machine guidance was only 92 at KFIT/KASH/KBED which appears to low-ball a +21.5 overriding 850 mb metric - particularly when the wind is 240 deg at 10 to 15 kts in mid BL flow. That wind trajectory offers 0 marine/Serly contamination. Meanwhile, the the RH% at/below 500 mb all the way down are < 50%, under a climbing late May sun. It's definitely low balling the temps. Why? Well ...off the bat, it appears it is limiting the mixing depth/BL heights to just 900 mb level. One thing I have noticed about the NAM is that it T1 ( 20 mb above station sigma) is typically cold biased beyond 48 hours. As that intervals in question get nearer over consecutive runs, it adds whole degrees C to that T1 value - particularly outside of deep CAA times of year. This whole situation with a sudden jolt into a + standard deviation heat event, then added to that tendency, I think is exaggerating that effect. 92 is too cool on Saturday ( MET)... 88 at Logan is ungood forecasting -

'Wiz doing it the old fashioned way with the NAM grid over here... BOS/LGA 36000936454 03704 171915 66151712 36000995933 01993 151616 71142114 42000987647 -3494 161921 69131913 42002995640 05294 141709 74162417 48001975155 -1696 162214 73162317 48000984153 02695 172608 73172417 54000533228 00893 152409 76292419 54000583233 -1094 172208 75272718 60000522629 -0592 162310 76302319 60000542927 -0793 172211 75282418 I don't know if you know how to interpret these (FOUS) grid values, but as per my own pre reqs for Met back in the day, we used them regularly. Back then it was the NGM and the ETA, respectively. But now it's just the NAM... Anyway the two lines I bold show that the warm air burst, overtop synoptically, prior to the llvs catching up. That's by definition WAA... But here we see minor QPF of .01 and .02 respectively - which isn't insignificant when knowing what is going on synoptically to induce these numbers. The +23 and +24 C, between 2 am and 8 am Saturday morning, while it is +16 C in the low levels...etc.. You can also see the wind at both BOS and LGA go from S to WSW, and the sounding becomes adiabatic to surface ( or closer to it) under that warm layering upon the next interval? That's a warm fropa there. Anyway, I would not be surprised if there's frequent lightning predawn elevated stuff... and then look at the RH later in the day!! Bone dry after that morning advection clears, full sun and soars to 30C in the T1 at Logan. That's 34 or 35 C in the 2-meter (most likely)

Yeah ...I mentioned this last night with Tiger' ... The NAM shows elevated heat - almost like a hybrid EML arriving, between 900 and 850mb levels, during tomorrow late afternoon and night. Meanwhile, the surface T1 in the grid is still hung up in the mid 60s while that advection occurs. Like d(t) is +7 to 11 at 900 mb, rising from 13 or so at 4pm Friday, to 24C 11 pm Friday night. It's not clear to me that overrunning of 20+C air is going to happen without some sort quasi-warm frontal slantwise rise motion ... does it then breach free convection - i.e., elevated warm IB driven frequent lightning overnight/downpours strafing through... The caveat is the this SW/ Texan heat released air appears to be - perhaps - too early in the season? Whatever the reason, it's not clear it is theta-e charged. I mean, if this were coming in with a layer/slab of elevated DP off the deck, with some of that dry EML overtop, we'd probably see some of that isentropic lift action more obviously?

Yeah... (thanks) I noticed that all models are slowing the front now to Sunday night. 4 or 5 days ago, the original vision for this weekend was more like a Saturday shot - the deep layer circulation features toting that front along where stronger and thus faster. The funny thing is, I didn't mentioned this but I was internally voicing that the models, all of three majors, have a magnification' ( over amping) tendency for events that 'rise over the temporal horizon' of the outer modeling frames. It's something I've op-ed about in longer posts that by virtue of being too long and annoying, may not have been read - haha. What can I say - that's how I roll. Anyway ... it's like the S/W and associate front as well as the overall pattern manifold was 'logistically effected' by too much westerlies mechanics that these models tend to apply to the field ...and now that we are getting closer, it's a shallower wave. The ridge is more resilient that way... More resilience means more W motion to the level trajectory, and that's moving the wind dial from SW to more WSW and that makes big difference in maximization... As well, another positive feedback, causing more 'synergistic' heat, is that mechanical give back to the ridge is driving a hotter kinetic layer through the 900 to 700 mb level. That's +22.5 C inside that plume astride the SNE coast Saturday evening, a pocket that wasn't there at 12z - that means the the lower troposphere was plumbed and overturned by mixing... I don't know how that can happen without the adiabats also being extrapolated from 850 or even exceeding that sigma level. In short, I still think that 101 is possible at Hanscom Field, Rt 9, and over down town thoroughfares. Possible - as it, 'monitoring the potential for'

Funny you mentioned that ... I'm already noticing that happening... The front that ends our "two day" heat wave, has normalized some comparing the original modeling cinema from 4 .. 5 days ago. The upper support even goes more zonal in the non-hydrostats instead of trough incursion that yo-yos in and out...etc. In fact, centered on ~132 hours out from the 00z run cycle, all the models attempt even bounce the height back, already...by as early as Tuesday... However, because of idiosyncrasies over eastern Canada, we end up with high pressure at the surface retreat E of NF ..which sends NE trajectories back SW under the upper heights - so it's a dud, gutted ridge. But, the 850 mbs do reflect muted overall aspect, by only on average coming down to 9 to 12 C through the period. Then, there's suggestion of another flat trough and whisky front. Then, I'm tracking a much bigger systemically anchored heat look that's really quite awesome already in the 300 hour EPS/GEPs... The GFS is more tepid but it's own PNA is down below -1 SD by Mem Day weekend, which suggests room to negotiate.

Wow... arresting image. Again..for the upteenth time, I reiterate my sentiments that PF is a moron for not taking these to a digital re-mastery expert, and become rich, both in spirit and form, as an arty, wealthy kind of neo Ansel Adam's for broad vistas - This waste is like a single, middle aged woman whose clock is winding down. Her body was always deliciously hot, her face, melting hearts. Yet she's single, and doesn't know why - or does but covets the frustration and tears from other's eyes. She like this for failing to ever therapeutically connect with an obstructive force caused by an overbearing affection giver in her youth. ...One to this day that her adoration is immortalized. That's the insidious nature of that kind of 'psychic incest' (no physical manifestation), in that it feels so good while it is happening, the damage to individualism and personal growth space can be quite profound. This person essentially has had her ability to formulate affection 'shut down' by the psychic interference, the natural gestational phase of crushes on boys (or girls) we all suffer, may not have occurred at all during critical years ( 5-12), because of the overbearing predominating presence in her adolescence. She's intelligent, quick witted and can plumb deeper colloquy, otherwise, about a myriad of subjects she may not have ever been formally introduced with - she's smart enough to do that. And when not manufacturing 'fantasy conflicts' as a defense mechanism, keeping those who 'approach her' that way, at bay - anything to distance her self, all done unconsciously - she's really quite cheerful, approachable, and charming. But that demon keeping her from truly finding and engaging in life has proven too powerful, insidiously cloaked beneath these 'on-paper' social advantages... And now that her clock is winding down, at middle age, she's running out of time... If she doesn't figure this shit out, she'll miss the boat entirely ... and leave only an empty life behind. Never having framed this talent for photo-optic gems into an immortalizing homage to a great soul; instead, a portrait in the shimmering gallery of mediocrity.

00z NAM brings the elevated thermal layer over the region late Friday. It’ll be interesting Saturday morning when 900 mb is +25C over PHL NYC and BOS, full sun coming.

I thought about that. Maybe at the nose dew elevation/advection

You know ..I was also wondering about instrumentation. But I'm not a technology historian by any stretch - it's just that for example, earlier last Century the Death Valley record was set ( 2nd highest in the world), but recently that's come under some skepticism if not scrutiny due to that, and it was registered some 50 years later than the 1880's I do know from my half century's worth of existence that it's hard to get above 95 in May in general, and a-priori that's gonna date back many years before my feet hit earth - most likely.

Hey Wiz' ... you probably don't have idea or have never heard of this, "May 21, 1996 – A microburst caused extensive damage and 60 injuries in Plymouth County, Massachusetts, where winds were clocked at 104 mph (167 km/h). Brockton, Whitman, and Abington were the hardest hit towns." But that was led by 90 F temperatures that day. I recall that.. This set up Sunday sort of reminds me... although back then the heat punched in for just a day.

Ha ha ... I get it. But unfortunately, there may never be a "gawk scale" for which a single event is ever gonna be compared to. "It's got a holy shit we all gon' die, historic value of 9 on the scale of oh-shitness!" Breaking a 130 year record is breaking a 130 year record in the stricter scalar sense, and is impressive nonetheless for most climate and met trained. If that were to occur, it would be both awesome, and, still does fit in with breaking warm-related records in a +d(climate) era.