Typhoon Tip

Just a ten year old can kicker … minded me own business

One should not continue to elicit a positive angle on the MJO • Both velocity potential based MJO and RMM indices indicate an active West Pacific MJO event with little continued eastward propagation in recent weeks. • There is disagreement among the dynamical models regarding the predicted evolution of the MJO, leading to continued uncertainty in the outlook. • Tropical cyclone formation is favored over the southern Pacific where any coherence of the MJO is more likely to manifest itself during the next two weeks. • While West Pacific MJO events typically favor colder than normal conditions across the CONUS, extended range model guidance continues to mimic more of an amplified negative Pacific North American pattern, suggestive of La Niña dominating the extratropical response over North America.

I had posted this in the other Dec thread but ... seems this philosophy is needed in here - it's a perspective op ed Sometimes winter biased patterns will sea-saw ... Patterns come and go, the transient ones... But there are those 'footed' types, that appear to be the return, or base-line, after those either transient looks either constructively or destructively played out over top. The typical gestation time of those returning base-line pattern is seldom longer than 45 days ... Rarely, you can get 90 day persistence but that seldom occurs - I don't think I've ever seen that, personal. Case in point, the winter of 1995-1996, a very good example of the above playing out. There were three patterns that very coherently characterized that long winter. The first was early November through middle January. It was a neutral PNA in a slower flow, while pulsing -NAOs that favored the western limb of the domain. Sometimes there was more of a physical block, but other times ... trough/storm routing just seemed to move as though the block were still there - that's the non-linearity of the Pacific R-wave forcing, ...which officially checks out the reader - LOL. Anyway, it fit right into the 45 day model really... Then there was a break, a hUge thaw that came with it. Something triggered an impressive whole-scale hemispheric/R-wave repositioning event. I recall the Pacific from Japan all the way around the globe reconstructed - this forced retrograding W ( or progressing E... six'o dozen) of the persistent cold over eastern N/A. but it ony lasted 2 to 3 weeks, a time in which we saw striking reversal of winter fortune, with some big snows and cold retrograding back to the NP to western Great Lakes, while back east flipped from deep cold and prolific snow fall anomalies, to staggering warmth. It was a short gestation however. Not sure what happened to end it, but it proved to be more of an interlude pattern. What set back in really wasn't the same as the Nov-Jan pattern; in other words, it did not appear to merely return - least not per what I remember of the behavior. Nevertheless, and much to the joyous exhalation of the enduring winter weather enthusiasts, cold and snow returned, and the new paradigm lasted into mid April. I've had conversations with other Meteorologist, what would have been of that year, if that mid interlude did not take place. What if the three deep cutters just did what all others did. That one would have blown 2015 out of the water, ... because it was a continental -scaled event anomaly. 2015 was more local to New England. Not a 90-day variation. Two 45-day patterns, interceded with one that may have actually ( interestingly ...) been more statistically likely to be the case given to the weak-ish cool ENSO going on during an era when ENSO's meant shit ( half kiddin). Not to start a causality squabble, but I do wonder if what we are seeing so far this year could be La Nina forcing that is constructively interfering with EAMT tendencies - together that's getting the hemisphere 'stuck' in a sense... It's all speculation of course... but I know that this pattern persistence has "over-performed" relative to ENSO alone. Something is giving it a kick-back. Anyway, we've been pummeled with highly realized -PNA negative interference pattern over eastern N/A mid latitudes, and it has lasted over a month. I'm personally interested in how the next 10 days start behaving, as to whether these gestation lengths get tested.

I dunno, did they "snow" this ?

Put another way ... I suspect most would agree, if we can't get even so much as a reach-around redemption, we'd rather it be a 70 F climate change freak show the whole way, and green up in mid February...with thunderstorms and beach weather by March. Really just make it "the year without a winter" and stop f'in around with it. But nope - this has been an eerie finding more reasons to be worse. LOL

Saying this in the spirit of commiseration but heh, at least in 2012 it was so bad it actually got good because we were handed so many weekends in January and February 56 ...60 F and could do stuff outside. Not all of them, no. But we were doing disk golf in cargo shorts and light sweatshirts on a lot of those Saturday's that year. This? can't do that. It's just dog shit. It's really rather remarkable just how bad this is.

Just as an aside: the PNA domain is truly enormous. In fact, it probably in some statistical theory could be considered too big to be entirely practical. It encompasses some 1/4 of the geographic area of the planet to more or less hyperbole. That pragmatics of it comes into question when looking historically ... there have been notable storm episodes in -3 PNA's. This year? Is not one of those - so far. It is what it is. There are other factors - HC ain't helping...sorry to say, because laying a ridge tendency over a lower latitude Walker boundary that is tending to be N of the previous 'Millennial' climate signal, is inherently a constructive feed-back between the two. It may not express as huge heights extending clear to ORD-BUF-PWM, but when not ... we're trading tall tropospauses for increased wind velocities. Both represent the same energy in the budget. When the gradient relaxes, the rest state is a modest positive anomaly..etc, if perhaps not demonstrative - subtle variances have bigger impacts in that sense. That's how the HC shit works. I'm digressing.. I was just going to point out that with a huge PNA domain, it is possible to have it's west or east domain region more + or -, and given to which, that may pull the whole field up or down. If the west part of the domain is hugely negative, but the east aspect is modestly positive, we may be favored for storminess in that situation despite an overall -3 PNA... and vice versa. I'm not sure how it applies to now as an argument - I don't think it is. I think with the west biased -WPO/EPO thing that we collectively may have though 12 days ago would result better, that is sort of indicative of actually helping the -PNA expression.

Sometimes winter biased patterns will sea-saw, too - there's that... Patterns come and go, the transient ones... But there are those 'footed' types, that appear to be the return, or base-line, after those either transient looks either constructively or destructively play out over top. The typical gestation of the returning base-line pattern is seldom longer than 45 days ... Rarely, you can get 90 persistence but that seldom occurs - I don't think I've ever seen that, personal. Case in point, the winter of 1995-1996, a very good example of the above playing out. There were three patterns that very coherently characterized that long winter. The first was early November through middle January. It was a neutral PNA in a slower flow, while pulsing -NAOs that favored the western limb of the domain. Sometimes there was more of a physical block, but other times ... trough/storm routing just seemed to move as though the block were still there - that's the non-linearity of the Pacific R-wave forcing, ...which officially checks out the reader - LOL. Anyway, it fit right into the 45 day model really... Then there was a break, a hUge thaw that came with it. Something triggered an impressive whole-scale hemispheric/R-wave repositioning event. I recall the Pacific from Japan all the way around the globe reconstructed - this forced retrograding W ( or progressing E... six'o dozen) of the persistent cold over eastern N/A. but it ony lasted 2 to 3 weeks, a time in which we saw striking reversal of winter fortune, with some big snows and cold retrograding back to the NP to western Great Lakes, while back east flipped from deep cold and prolific snow fall anomalies, to staggering warmth. It was a short gestation however. Not sure what happened to end it, but it proved to be more of an interlude pattern. What set back in really wasn't the same as the Nov-Jan pattern; in other words, it did not appear to merely return - least not per what I remember of the behavior. Nevertheless, and much to the joyous exhalation of the enduring winter weather enthusiasts, cold and snow returned, and the new paradigm lasted into mid April. I've had conversations with other Meteorologist, what would have been of that year, if that mid interlude did not take place. What if the three deep cutters just did what all others did. That one would have blown 2015 out of the water, ... because it was a continental -scaled event anomaly. 2015 was more local to New England. Not a 90-day variation. Two 45-day patterns, interceded with one that may have actually ( interestingly ...) been more statistically likely to be the case given to the weak-ish cool ENSO going on during an era when ENSO's meant shit ( half kiddin). Not to start a causality squabble, but I do wonder if what we are seeing so far this year could be La Nina forcing that is constructively interfering with EAMT tendencies - together that's getting the hemisphere 'stuck' in a sense... It's all speculation of course... but I know that this pattern persistence has "over-performed" relative to ENSO alone. Something is giving it a kick-back. Anyway, we've been pummeled with highly realized -PNA negative interference pattern over eastern N/A mid latitudes, and it has lasted over a month. I'm personally interested in how the next 10 days start behaving, as to whether these gestation lengths get tested.

What makes the ENSO -heads worried in all this is that cool events tend to correlate to front loaded winters... then thaws and/or early springs favored.

Hilarious ..I love that! For now on it's, "Oh him? nah, he's an LS if I've ever seen one"

My hypothesis is pretty easy to come by but fwiw, they do so now to get their greed ironed out and divvied up before having to compromise actually delivering the product that allows them to bathe is avarice in the first place ... But who knows.. You know? - not all billionaires are actually bright people - you have to read that scientific paper released where the researchers/authors used AI and math of 'doucheness' to prove that income and wealth inequality is way more realized by just dumb f'n luck than those with it know or acknowledge - One could almost imagine them still squabbling and counting their cash when the fans have already walked away. Baseball's in trouble. It has been for awhile. Between Millennials really not having the attention span or the heritage ( in either ..) to create a culture of interest, and the present generations aging and dying off... - it's an interesting outlook for a game that take inhumane hours to play and with eternity between in-game events - with it's present model and product profile it's got no chance with the way the world is changing. They have to do something to make that interesting... Like, how 'bout make it a contact sport - heh... yeah. Go around 2nd base and close line the 2nd baseman trying to field the ball. Just put helmets on 'em ... obviously not serious.. but MLB does have a matriculation problem

LOL right, cuz 2.5 weeks later pitchers and catchers report -

That 'Miami rule' is being violated like a casting call hottie ... I can see why the Euro keeps that thing not only positively tilted, but moving at ludicrous speed. I wonder if it is possible to actually have a storm move faster than the fall velocity of snow, such that it doesn't.. haha. Kidding, but I think that D11 and 12 extrapolation off both the 00z and 12z Euro would be much better candidate for less negative interference. Love to see those charts if just for the entertainment and addiction's sake LOL. No, but you can tell the flow is poised to pop a ridge aft of that S/W ejection in the Plains on D10; meanwhile, heights over Miami are < 582, and the wind is < 50 kts prior to arrival. Those two are scaffolding for constructive interference ... and the wave in both those cycles proooobaby looks tasty around NJ, extrapolated. In the meantime, I still think the weekend is more significant than this smattering of nuisance snow and mix intervals during the shrapnel this week. But I like the idea of that demagnifying toward more of a flat wave and possible more ice problems ...

Heh yeah, and though we realize the snark in your post here, perhaps motivated out of smoldering frustration ( lol ), the upshot (for me) is that those excessively deep category 4 hurricane depths are - duh - less likely to verify anyway. Just sayn'. But, I've long been annoyed that this engagement, which some validate by calling it a hobby ... is really more about a model-cinema create pre-dystopian euphoria/addiction. Folks are probably more at a sense of loss in the days preceding any event, if the that period of time sans that "charge" they get out of model pornographics. The storm? yeah, they're kinda cool. LOL How's that for snark? No, but mid latitude lows tend not to sub 950 at our latitude, though can occur ...very rarely. Rareness, by convention, should require huge degrees of incredulity and skepticism, particularly for beyond D5's. But ... alas! There will be those that don't seem to ascribe or operate within convention - huh. I saw some reasons overnight that are more rational, in all seriousness. Yesterday I wrote that the telecon spreads ( provided by GEF -based) were not altogether very supportive of a big continental mauler low ... like that which the the GFS has been insisting now for ( as far as I can tell...) for some 4 consecutive days of model cycles. Sometimes more primary, sometimes more commitment to coastal as a bona fide Miller B .. but carrying the system nonetheless. Particularly in the PNA. Still, at the time, there was a tentative trend in the EPS to be more amplified with the same trough ejection through the west - a trend that continued 00z last night. And that was also when the GGEM runs began nodding to the notion for bombs. I surmised it is possible that this is one of those rarer times when the higher resolution, more 'souped up' model versions lead the telecon, and that the latter may start opening up to the notion in future cycles. That happened Last night, ...about 1/3 to 1/2 the GEF members instantiate a mode change in the PNA beginning in 6 or so days, one that carries on through week two. The signal is very new... but, when one surmises a notion, the the notion gets supported ... it makes it hard for the notion creator to dump said notion. Lol... we'll see how it goes. This appears ( to me ..) to be the next significant event, but probably it is in the magnified/over-amped phase that all models regardless seem to do with features in the D6-9 range.

That 00z GFS would be a record setter. heh

I was scanning the individual GEF members and about 2/3rds of them were signaling a highish latitude Miller B spanning next Weekend+1 day. Large system...originating as a Colorado Low/ continental mauler - something I personally have not seen in quite some time. This type of low can run moderate to heavy snow totals over a wide expanse ... polarward of a primary track from circa Denver to circa Detroit ... Buffalo region, prior to coastal commitment. The other 1/3 have either too much primary... or... to weak over all to be meaningful. Over all this is a trend over the previous two consecutive cycles in the mean ( and indiv. member count ), gaining coherence for that signal. I'm not seeing where the telecon spread from the GEFs signals the Archembault - typically H.A. events are pretty clearly signaled in the former so it is interesting. This feature has been on the operational GFS for three consecutive days worth of cycels...varying between more primary and ice storm cinema, to more commitment to coastal and quite the wallop from PHL to Maine as K.U. The GGEM jumped radically on-board this 12z, but it's solution make-up looks unnatural with a 980 mb low over BUF escaping soon into the Maritime, and then 30 hours later, a sub 950 mb low abeam PWM... That's like never happened, and for a reason. I haven't seen individual EPS members, ...but the mean trended significantly deeper in the total 500 mb between 12z on the 25th and 12z this morning. The operational version is emerging, albeit slowly, ... an active baroclinic field with [ probably ] a multi -wave impact. Usually the ANA-esque open waves at this range is more like a reservation so.. So, with this fledgling consensus for an active New Year's weekend across the country, with [ probably of more importance at this range ] such a massive system with large mass field involvement... it's probably not a mere red herring. I'm just a little leery about the 'magnification' thing the models do ...where they see these things on the temporal horizon like we see the moon’s first rise as a giant pancake. It is also possible - and sometimes does occur - where the higher res "souped up" model types/operational version will agree on a signal, and backward of convention...the telecon opens up to the idea. I just find it really interesting that the type of system in the GEFs members is a typical of an index modality event, yet the PNA isn't impressive there, which is based on the g-damn GEFs...

I love the artistry of forecast models sometimes... Best gallery around -

May get periodic freezing drizzle as it gets dark and the top of the low lvl saturated cold layer attempts to shed degree decimals

Scan elevation ? ... maybe another higher warm layer. I mean the 'tuck' doesn't mean it's cooling above necessarily, right ?

I've been watching that all morning .. yup- We're likely to tuck that all the way and see it teriminate down the eastern flank of the Worcester Hills ...not sure if it spills over. Will and I were onto the aspect that the warm layer in this isn't ideal. The droplet temps are ...a little toasty heh. But that is needing more cold air to help phase change efficiency that normal - relative to temperature. I think that is happening visibly here just N of Rt 2 in N. Middlesex Co in Mass. Ayer - I have icicles and poor accretion efficiency, even though it 30.5 F ... The rain rate is not very heavy. Steady and light ... Typically we could see that be very efficient at that temp but we're not. I'm wondering if that's related the fact that it's probably 40F atop mt Monadnock. the 12z NAM has gone cold over Logan out of nowhere... hmm. It's only +2 C at 900 now by late afternoon.. .yesterday's 18z was +5! That's a pretty substantial short lead term shirking on plans.. If that is true, the tuck pulse above does come on down... we may have seen the warmest this gets. That might not be good considering how loaded the upstream rad is...eesh. Man, icing events have no equal when it comes to excruciatingly tedious micro now casting LOL

Hope you had a good morning opening presents in with icing going on... nice. As far as your concern above, absolutely ... well, most likely. But yeah of course it is. No argument at all. Like I stated - and still believe will be the case ... - this year will have shared real-estate, sometimes more ... sometimes less reflecting the La Nina, relative to climate expectations - " ..I thought this year would pass the hemisphere in and out of La Nina.." ( just to be clear - ) .. Certainly so far since say, mid November, this journey's been consistent with La Nina destructive interference ... some telecon correlations - MJO being one of them, not correlating well, or like behaving weird. Frankly, as far as the HC damping stuff - that needs clarity too: The 'damping' part as an HC effect, is a hypothesis that as far as I am aware, only on my part. But I'm sure with the vast number of heads in the business, I'm not the only one scratching head.. It's not about that. Just that it's not sent through rigor. That said, HC expansion in and of its self, that much is not hypothesis. It's empirical. The HC part of the total Walker circulation model has/begun to expand outside of the ENSO over recent decades ... That is by virtue of geometry ( really ...) disconnecting the equatorial ENSO's direct latent heat diffusion model, ever more; that separation is the damping. It's not so much a physical damping like holding it down; more so the lowering the ability of ENSO's direct modulation because of the growing disconnect. The advent of a powerful +EAMT signal in the late mid range/ .. especially extended blends, that would tend to modulate the Pacific circulation toward a newer paradigm than recent weeks. Whatever emerges: does it constructively vs destructively interfere with La Nina. Early indicators appear to suggest latter, as more and more individual GEF/EPS members ( using that metric indirectly ...) are beginning to emerge for Phase 8. Plus, the AO is is correcting down. It'll be interesting to see these indexes over the coming dayts, because if they continue to emerge this way, that would be competing against the La Nina footprint, and could herald one of those times when we hemisphere less reflects the cool ENSO mode.

Wow … that is one deliciously nasty storm in the GFS D8/9 …10 its like .7” accretion over to 45mph CCB snows … There’d have to be two fade in headlines

CMC has a much more impressive ice set up 2.5 days later …

Yeah no shit. CMC stays ZR the whole way. I’m noticing ever so subtle but more robust positive surface pressure pattern damming down eastern New England on that guidance comparatively. I’m wondering if there might be a little bit more ageo just critical

It all really draws the notion that the worst ice storms must be some sweet ratio between heat released thru phase change, vs offsetting heat sink feeding into the accretion layer. too much one way … more PLs … go the other and 32.1