Typhoon Tip

It's interesting ... hard to tell on satellite what's really going on down there. Clearly N of CT/RI, there is just fog pooling miasma that's melting away as I type. That's a no brainer for giving way to sear. But down there, there is a denser band that has S to N moving 'ripples' that give an allusion to a mid level ceiling ... perhaps helping to cap the region - imagining it collocates over top, in other words. I dunno tho. I think you will be probably be the last to clear - not sure how long.

I mean don't hold a pistol to our heads - LOL... Like we're saying, 'the way it looks at this moment'.

The EPS and GEFs means look tepid for signficant heat next weekend - Not sure the telecon derivatives would really suggest very hot either, ... just eyeballing the mass fields that are used for the calculating. It's a bouncing -PNA ( 0 to -.75 or so) with a modestly positive AO/NAO ... m'yeah it's warm. It is D7-10 so it could start getting more robust. This signal was in fact more robust two days ago ... I recall posting with Brian about it. So given that history, ..yeah I guess. It looks like we have a deep summer weekend for everyone but CT's south coast ( lol...j/k), then a whisky cold front along with its typical climo-failing convection threat that only manages to explode a pointless 20 page thread ... scrubs out and we get a couple of days that could actually be really nice. I mean breeze and upper 60s to around 70 style with ultra UV sun, mid week. I dunno tho - cold tends to modulate warmer at this time of year so the that nadir next week may shallow some. Then we oscillate back to something like this weekend ... That's what it looks like to me right at this moment..

No kidding?! I kept the evaluation coarse after I saw the 00z GFS. That model - I am now pretty much convinced ... - is forcibly parameterized to concoct interference of warm ups. lol. This rendition, it calves the eastern end of the warm front on Friday and generates a pivot point tendency for anti-cyclonic pressure pattern, very subtle. But then the next day, it creates a single close isobar over SNE - probably a 'thermal low' actually ... - but uses that as a trigger for a BD that doesn't actually have any assocatiated pressure rises up in Maine. It's like, "oh ... well, we better truncate that," while the GGEM and Euro are breaking records. It's probably right though, in principle. Heat's really fragile by nature. It's always trying to get to space with a leaning force always on. It's not like cold dense air, that needs real Newtonian first law mechanics to get it out of region (which we are uniquely qualified to demo around this geography ... ). So the GFS is "confusing" thermal lows with BD tapestry, or, we just BD anyway? right for the wrong reason is better than flat wrong in any dimension I guess.

Scent of summer in the air this morning, unmistakable. Sort of hinted yesterday, it piques the nostalgia with rich aroma. Same as yesterday morning, a morning strata -fog has packed in. Thinning from the edges, and brighter moments, will eventually open up to tall hot sun. Tomorrow looks like the first uncomfortable day. Quick surmise off the NAM grid, 90/60+ style. In fact ... deep summery bath all weekend. Maybe some afternoon crispy TCU ? On cue with elevating DPs and the modest CAPE. For summer enthusiasts, this is your time to celebrate -

NAM looks hot Saturday.

Sounds like -(S.A.D.D) ”Negative seasonal effective disorder” is a lesser known variant … probably because it affects a comparative minority, to the popular/known kind. … It’s just like it sounds. Summer/high sun causes problems for them, much in the same way that darkness and cold gets to the other.

I don’t get that vibe about this year. When summer mode takes over and the perennial shift lifts out the polar jet I don’t get the feeling we’re oscillating this time. May end up dull with towering heights. Maybe set the stage for cutting off a heat ulcer like ‘95

oh ok. the MOS reflects that. fine.

NAM appears to have come around to warmer per this 12z run. Given up on that strange low level RH contamination - it was putting out 95% choke in the bottom, under nil mid and U/A cloud ceilings/May sun; with the ocean flow cutting off, that wasn't clear where that was coming from. Anyway, the 980 mb over Logan surges to +24C on Saturday, 18z ...which is probably 27 or 28 C in the real 2-meter ( not what is displayed in those graphic charts that say 2-meter but stop at the adiabats). +22C above the 2-meter mixing depth tomorrow. That all translates probably the low 80s F even tomorrow, and mid/upper 80s Saturday.

67 at 10... '10 after 10' rule of thumb seems about right. Transparent strata appears too thin to be much limitation on heating. The strew float like islands in a much broader blue sky so ample sun. Denser E-S but even there it's trending less.. You know, we need the rain? My lawn - as a yokel's metric ... - is not growing/replacing very well for May after just one mowing... I don't recall having a decent soaking in quite some time. That coastal/cut-off ordeal didn't bring rains to much of the area - just choked off the sun and Labradorian flow kept the trees dormant. lol - but yeah.. heading into 4 days of 75 to 83 with low rain and high sun

Slate gray an hour ago here, but as hi res vis satellite imagery revealed...it was totally clear just NW. Mainly a S-E region, strata rebuild during the cooling darkness of the overnight. But now as the sun intervals burst through, the loop also reveals it's very thin. Should be clearing lowering RH quickly NW of ~ BOS-PVD. Sooner NW. Quite a milder feel to the still air this morning comparing recent mornings. Already 57 here. Higher launch pad. Looking at the low level gradient, very light. Even out at Logan is 'cast to stay under 10 mph, tho still NE. That's probably variable by Cambridge side. That does, however, set stage for the local sea-breeze circulation to set up.. So probably a boundary works inland toward I-95 and eventually 495 late afternoon. Should be upper 70s out here if/when that arrives - not certainty. It's a tedious, nerdy now cast to give a shit about a random still day in May but what can I say - that's the way I roll. lol

man... Davenport IA is presently 95/69 That's about what we seem to max out here. We need to trade off the DP to get that 95 --> 100. We have have been higher, just more typically..

Oh I see what it's doing and it's not likely right. It appears to be taking the return flow and mixing with the dry air in place, and wetbulbing the low-levels to near saturation. Least that's what it looks like. As the wind veers around to SW at ALB -for example- the llv RH jumps to 90+% at 18z Friday with blue sky over head, and the temperature there stagnates. That's BS

Made 73 here along Rt 2/eastern Mohawk Trail in N Mass... 75 in MHT, NH and 82 in ALB. Over top was a good call ... but now the question, does is bleed south. NAM says no... Not sure I buy it though. Boston staying 17C in T1 ( 980 MB level) with a WSW breeze under full sun, with 850s all the way at 14.5 C on Friday like the NAM's selling - wrong. Looks like it's trying to pollute the lower levels with surplus RH with no prior DP advection ... yeah it's doing something naughty. I wonder if the 'winter algorithms' are still firing in the guidance - used to be a factor in the old days. Maybe the seasonal change is seamless in the tech these days - no idea just conjecture. At any rate, synoptically it looks to me like 78 here tomorrow, and 80s on Friday. Saturday the pan-region tickles dp of 60 with the smell of distant thunder-able air.

I knew it was coming ... I didn't wanna mention it ahead of his announcing - who would? but yeah, memories galore. Great forecaster. Above all else, a great human being. Deserves all the credit and them some, as well as happiness and success in any new found directives, or in freedom.

Top 10 day easily here ... 0 cloud Very low RH Barely a perceptible breeze 72 At least at this 1:15 pm moment, it's physically impossible to be better without a concurrent double BJ by the two hottest [enter preference] on the planet -

wow...72 now. It's bursting up ... I gotta think tho that as soon as the ocean gets the memo over what's happening here in the interior it'll send a debbie downer gift inland... Boston, and most importantly down there by Scott, are soothing 55's while we're 70+ - awesome

Yeh ... we've actually suddenly broke the pattern here. Rather unexpected, the persistent tree swaying white noise ENE gusting has all but stopped here, and the surrounding region's home site/station obs have all lurched to 70 to 71 ... interesting. KFIT is 70 with a paltry 8 mph NE drift at this point, too, do NWS. KASH 70/ 6 mph. This is ahead of the NAMarama ding dong machine numbers - I think...

I think what he and I are describing, though, is the 'synergistic heat' - like rogue waves in the ocean. Those events that have occurred globally that have never happened before. That heat last year or whenever, was impressive but it's not of that former ilk.

We've been playing with fire ( all puns deliberate and hopefully as annoying as possible ) I've echoed that sentiment a few times in recent yearly springs. I'd go so far as to say it would be a 'wake up call' event? You know, "sociologically," we need it to hit policy idiots ... usually in the wallet is the most effective way to execute change. However, since heat and climate are (unfortunately) only indirectly related, the best next thing we can do is bake balls and lower sperm potency.. heh. Have the fictional, but plausible, nuke heat strike upon the whole lot of it, ROA to PWM. 106 by day, can't sleep by night diurnals - but so extreme that the grid fails so no one is comfortable, not even the rich. A true big dawg panter wave ... like, the Pac NW. Having it last too. Like it relaxes back to say 90 for a couple days.. only before doing it again a week later. Suddenly, green industry surges on Wall Street. No shit!? Thing is, ... I almost wonder even in the CC footprint, our geologic/geographic circumstance is somehow physically unable to get that done. Something I have noticed in recent years... when there is a 'Sonoran heat release'/SW ejection showing up in the models, they'll miss the DPs aspect .. But what occurs appears to trade temperature for more back-o-ball-sack slimy air. Not sure...but I think it's a correction to see the natural circumstance as the days near in the model, that we are the anus of all continental filth ( lol, is this gross enough ?) Seriously, if we could swap the DP in one of those, +22C at 800 mb with D-slope trajectory should get it done, temp could nudge 104 at BED, or even go higher by pings. The thing is, ... the scale and degree of the Pac NW anomaly, I don't know how/if we can +4 SD the temperature side at HFD-PVD-ORH-BOS-MHT-PWM...etc... because of pollution - just wondering if there's too much bio-miasma and industrial ozone. interesting.

It looks like ( early detection ) the warm up nearing the 20th of the month has legs. There's an emerging signal in all three, EPS/GEFs/GEPs.. for the -PNAP to reassert after the front/trough dip early next week remains progressive, rather than carving in and establishing as a pattern regression. After it moves off with an ~ 2 day more seasonal cool back, ... it remains to be seen how much so the recurrence of ejected ridge will bloom, but longer term -PNA is still in place, so the "correction vector" is more not less with that. The operational GFS, both 00z and 06z have remarkable consistency, run-to-run-considering a D9-12 range. That's a hot look there ( and yes Kevin, finally) with DPs. Considering the range, it still doesn't mean a whole helluva lot saying that but the GGEM is on board too fwiw, and these are reasonably good fits for both their ensemble means and the canvas arguments... Blah blah, we end up with a chance for more positive departures - above climatology - coming on toward the end of this next week.

Thought had to occurred to me yesterday; we're about to click up to the next stage in warm season's approach. If perhaps more symbolic, but those bar numerics nicely illustrate. Starting tomorrow the cool days are like the way the warmest days have been over the last three weeks. While the warmer days have a legit shot and "hot" Today's already trying. The air smells like it's coming. I know that sound weird...but I have a super power - I can smell the next season. Haha... seriously, most can tell summer air, vs autumn air... winter... etc. Then sure enough, the DPs are rising with the temp some... intsead of 22 F they are nearing 40 and that little difference combined with the climbing uber hot May sun has the morning air differently appealed compared to where it has been. Tomorrow might come abruptly to some. Tho not hot per se, bouncing the front yard hover temperatures clear almost 80 for the first time is like the first heroine dose. I think we're gonna have problem though E of 495 up here and SE of the Pike / 84 CT... Hard to say, but the gradient is weak and that much burst warmth in the interior is liable to really set off the local breeze circulation machine. Radar may show the side-winder moving inland.

We need these warm days that seem like they’ve been in wait as long as the technological history of the Internet to actually happen. If we manage regional pan-dimension 84/58 day night relays spanning 4 days worth, at even 80% of that anomaly, it’ll all catch up with rapidity. Frost advisories won’t work as well

Kevin... seriously/curiously - why do you have to always ... like autopilot apply spin toward more. The problem is, when you act to agree, but then spin, that sorta inadvertently couches that person into your leaning aspect - I realize this is a public bus stop on the Internet and therefore decorum is escaping at best, at other times there are no "real" rules...but c'mon. Lol I'm just trying to justify a warmer appeal. I'm not surging into DPs this, and humidity that. That's your bag - In fact, I suspect it is dry warmth and bigger diurnal spreads for Tolland/CT until late Friday ...more likely Saturday, and then it depends how much theta-e advects in - though I agree the DPs'll elevate some before that fropa early next week. I suppose by convention of being the 'first exposure' to any DP it may feel more humid by then.