Typhoon Tip

There was not coherent wave at all, before 4 days ago - and you can handle a, " what the f are you talking about"

Never said that the strike through but nice gaslight LOL I know what I am talking about. Sorry ...I do -

What the f are you talking about. I just said "it's obviously coherent" and your telling me that IS my point.. No shit Sherlock. ...So you must mean, 'coherent as in detectably forcing the Northern Hem' ? wrong - the MJO is not enforcing the NH when it is not even emerged barely out of the Marine continent ... thus, that's not what's causing that

MJO coherency isn't my point... - if it matters. It's coherent, obviously ...but it's in the southern hemisphere - south of the Equator. It is not going to transmit it forcing through the "Equatorial wall" ... like this, - the flux of latent heat would move outward ( aloft) and away from the Equator toward those mid latitudes... What could change is if the wave grew laterally ... the wave its self can extend further through the equatorial 'boundary'. If that happens, convection ignition would then initiate modulation ( maybe ...). Fwiw - here's excerpt from CPC's recent publication: • A Pacific MJO event is likely to destructively interfere with La Niña, and there remains uncertainty as to whether the MJO will maintain an organized structure, as evidenced by large ensemble spread in the RMM forecasts through mid-December. Any coherence of the intraseasonal signal is more likely to be south of the equator.

La Nina and MJO phases late 6 thru 2 are destructive interference

Not a huge fan of this model anyway but that’s a suppressing trend

I know you mean well but I really hate these charts… This is not the icon model run - this is an interpretive algorithm spitting out snow based on who knows what math they use. Goes for all snowfall layouts regardless of model.

Heh. I just read ‘east wind’ in the context fear. Lol i looked at that and thought good, all safe and snug and tucked in for no worries.

Yeah it’s not abundantly clear how much that limits forcing N … but it has to - latent heat flux moves away from the source but does not cross the equatorial asymptote personally I don’t think the MJO … i just suspect that it’s in trouble because of HC anyway. It’s been having trouble coupling, and now it’s S eq based, and south of the eq virtual axes in which the atmospheres of the hemispheres don’t tend to interact The math of all that does not add up to influencing the northern hemisphere… Now if the wave suddenly expands across the equator and starts generating convection on that side … the flux moves away and we’ll see but then again my personal hang up still have to work the HC

The present emerging MJO is momentum biased S of the equator. “Whatever happens in Vegas stays in Vegas”

That images right there is a N ageo wind on the west side of a CF pressed right astride Rt 128 …

Those highs have sped up in guidance like 90% of the times when starting D5 <-- inwards... It'll be interesting if this one bucks that solidly dependable trend -

seems like the models are selling a scenario where we get these Lakes bombs, followed by a low end snow here, rolls right back into a warm up and Lakes bomb... rinse repeat

Man, eastern MN is setting up for a Younger Dryas blizzard with that -28 C air sitting right there and getting sucked into that circulation like that. How about wind gusts to 55 mph, temperature of -15 F, and shattered snow dust down to 20 feet visibility blue dimming

Ha - I didn't' actually tho ... It was a jest to encourage groaning lol.

Just fired up a threat thread ...

That ICON model likes the D5.5

I've been wondering about that too ... but, the stall in it's track...loop back and rapid decay, is not a full recurve ... I wonder how much of it's flux is really getting into westerlies compared to the idealized model. As an afterthought... Recurving west Pac TC's is typical of either about to, or in, late Phase 6 - early 2 side of the RMM/MJO wave guide. What is interesting, is what Ray and I were just musing. The present MJO is indeed in those phases, but, it's not in the Northern Hemisphere's side of the Equator ( according to document/publication). But, since this Nyotoh isn't 'technically' succeeding in recurving... it's weird - In any case, the reason that is stalling there and not actually succeeding in smearing up on into the westerlies, is because the WPO is out of phase. That's related to the highly coupled circulation mode coming off of Asia from what I'm seeing - which blows big donkey balls...because I believe until that happens, we have to bootleg winter appeal here because the other major telecon players are not really going to be in a hurry until we can get that to break-down and send the roulette wheel rotating around into a different wave # ...

Just my 2 cents: nothing's changed since the observations posted two day or so ago. The telecon's ( GEFs fwiw - ) are empirically behaving with acceptable error - looks (~) like > 80 some odd % ... which is fine for < D10. That all means it is helping determinism to employ at this time. The MJO ...being south bias of the Equator, probably is less factoring over the next two weeks... ( as an aside, I still believe personally that the MJO's forcing ability on the mid latitudes is being partially absorbed by the HC shit.. but that is secondary/after consideration to what Ray and I was just discussing - ) So, all else being fair and unfair... +AO/+NAO/-PNA ( and it is noted, the individual members are unusually agreeing in magnitude - oy!), ...normally, that would not be the preferred converging telecon signals for winter weather enthusiasts, to put it diplomatically. BUT, I believe this 10 days has to be adjusted due to the fact that the PV is pretty significantly geographically biased over our quatra-hemispheric scope. That's loaded the Can shield with -20 to -30 C 850 mass roughly 2/3rds the size of the contiguous U.S., and is packing the 850 mb thickness gradient right down to 45 N ... The immense velocities above that at 500 mb ...it's all part of the compression, too. The D6 flat wave next week ... First of all, that is remarkable that all operational guidance ( except the UKMET which I have not seen ) are, with this exception of meaningless noise ) essentially handling incredibly fragility with that. The flow leading, around ..., and after it, is is like a flea between two elephant asses terrified for its lift.. It seems the slightest alteration in flow that powerful would have an equally handsome impact on embedded features, so being able to maintain that little weakling is pretty delicate handling there. Interesting. But, that sensitivity works both ways...Despite the cutters ...any one of them can modulate along the polar boundary, and because the gradient is large, smaller adjustment N or S in the track streams ... Lot goin' on folks.

Oh I see - sure ... 'indirectly' -as in...after all physical processes have finished restoring, and the total system state is at rest ( entropy), the HC's scalar dimension is what it is. And what it is or has become rather, bigger than it was in 1980 - Think of it is as 'after the heat has been added to the integral'

separate matter entirely ...

Something like that I guess. heh... But the momentum distribution - I suspect .. - matters. You know, whether it's straddles the Equator on both sides, or is biased N vs S..etc. I am not absolutely certain that entirely limits the other hemisphere from exertion when it does, but I suspect that is the case. As an indirect/fwiw the PDF's author goes out of their way to mention the S bias and it doesn't seem logical for them to do so if it didn't matter.. ha. Anyway, flux moves polar-ward from the MJO latent heat release axis as the wave and its attended convective mass(es) propagate along - not toward and through the Equator - sort of think of it as an atmospheric asymptote

The MJO's wave is propagating on the southern side of the Equator

What is the state of northern Eurasia/Asian cryisphere ?

According to the weekly PDF/publication that summarizes the MJO ( found at the RMM url), ... I wouldn't be inclined to think this apparent emerging wave strength does much for the Americas. The ballast of the wave momentum, according to them ... is over the southern lapse region of the MJO latitudes. In other words, ...it's not really intuitive that it is forcing much on the north side ... Which, as an aside, I think the MJO suffers do to HC absorption too... The wave may be damped by La Nina circulation foot-print in these phase 6-8's, ..so seeing this one emerge is interesting in itself, - I get that. But, neither may be as effective in forcing the wave distribution of the westerlies in present climate circumstance/era.