Typhoon Tip

Hang in there ... Feel pretty confident in the 23/24th ... maybe 25, but this thread covers the front side and is entirely relevant. Not sure anyone saw my statement earlier, but having 1/3 (count) of the the total GEF members go from blase to couriering an import coastal from 00z through 12z, on top of a modest numeric +PNA persistence, is usually an omen for activity. I wanted to thread this too, but I was willing to wait on 'signal commitment' to either the 22 OR the 24th, not both. I suspect with the Euro dumping the previous, and it also in turn flexes it SPV to ( unrealistic) depths, is probably like the 'zygote' to modeling solution that relaxes said SPV and instead opens up the OV to less compression - not 100% but that's a likable correction for that source alone. May also be looking at a -AO tail end to winter

I dunno, I think the focus should be later 23 into the 24th... Half the GEF members carry a significant system along/astride the EC in that time range, an ~ 1/3 improvement in count comparing the 00z. Imho, the 12z Euro demos +PNAP over-expression from D5 into 7, a typical bias it does in that time range, such that it may be self-manufacturing unrealistically deep N. Ontario SPV toward later days. Wouldn't shock me if that ends up a bit shallower, while the southern extend of the total trough flow demos a bit more relaxed separation/identity in the OV.

I think Will's pointing out the key metric/wild card ... timing the exact retreat of the high is critical for timing p-type ... and cold resisting in general. It really really depends on that. Trust me... I am not "old" ...by I old enough and have experienced this sort of thing in the past, where synoptic turn around is truly extraordinary leaving one dazed in observance. I've described this in the past, so won't turn too much pen .. but Jan 1994 hosted an event that flipped 9 F, blue tinted snow grainy dawn, to 62 F southerly gales by 9 pm that same evening across SNE. That situation was had 0 high pressure N. The day prior, it did...and it was as stingy arctic air mass. That night, while decoupling and radiating off a snow pack, we zoomed into the single digits, but just above...the synoptic high pressure was quickly rolling out and receding east, leaving that cold at that dawn completely abandoned and exposed. It can happen. You can go from Dead Horse to the Del Marva in 9 hours given the right kind of face smacking. This does offer some +PP curvature ... more so than back whence ( as our virtual perfect pork job example LOL ). How much resistance is really dicey ... obviously some common sense convention knows that the southern half of CT-RI and SE Mass cook first. But the speed of erosion and all that. .. if the higher res models are in fact really belaying the high retreat east, our penchants for fighting off warm in the interior kicks in, in lockstep.

Ha, no by all means - go for it... I just wrote up about this in the Jan/obs thread. Paraphrasing... I feel confident the 20 -25th is an active interval, but there's an intra-modeling tussle with respect to which dates. I'd like a better handle ( personally..) on the 22nd or the 24th, as those are identifiable but are in some wave space contention, before taking ownership of a thread. But, I don't see any harm in having a thread running for interval for its own merit. Sure.

I would thread for that Jan 21 thru 25th period, buuuut ... There are problems that I do not feel brave enough to go ahead with a thread, until I see another couple of cycles ( minimum..) to hopefully offer clarity. I suppose if the title of said thread is, "Watching the 20th - 25th, heightened potential for eastern U.S. " ...and then onward, it only discusses the frame-up from that black-box perspective, okay. We've been onto the 20-25th interval for days, yup. So some operational versions decided to go ahead last night, and formally turn on the d-drip within that time frame. For the record, the GGEM has been toying with this for several cycles, actually. Now with the Euro joining ( ...0z EPS trend notwithstanding um... 972 mb integrating polar-arctic air mass in CCB is almost scary ha!) they focus on the 22nd. Firstly, the previous GGEM was focusing the 23/24th, and is now 22/23... Meanwhile, the Euro is 23rd, by virtue of the fact that it's racing a cyclone past again; so if there is a windy white Euro dawn on the 23rd, the sun set may be visible that afternoon. Said previous 23-24th GGEM solutions were slower moving system characters, that appeared more keyed into a pattern morphology/H.A., implicating a longer duration event. But now this move toward a more 22/23rd Euro event is technically a continuity break. What's to be expected at D7+ Meanwhile, the GFS has neither the 22nd ...nor the 24th. It has vestiges of both, but neither has enough might to overcome the other, so yet again ...mm hm, negative interference is present in the 00z. The 06z has attempted to correct for the latter 24th event. The individual 00z GEF members are about split in which dates to emphasize. Putting all this together ... it seems we are about 50/50 by concept and synoptic recognition/ correction vectoring toward either the 22nd, or 24th... or .. if we want to be fair... it's more like 40/40/20, with the 20 being negative interference limiting. The numerical equivalent of the PNA shows a non-modulating positive regime through D10... I find that interesting, because every model and ens mean there is has a steep NW flow entering the NP leading the time span in question, which then looks to get a goose from some additional western ridge amplitude around D8... I'd like to see a 'hill' in the curve out there. Yesterday, there was...

Then you'll probably do well there... if this (presentation) isn't a lark. I've seen this happen before where the American cluster starts 'flashing' in warm intervals above the 50 hPa sigma level ( ..where they first materialize when real..), only to have them just not take place. ...plus, if it is an SSW that is going to be real and meaningful to present context, it ill will need to actually be a down-welling event, which cannot be ascertained at this very early detection... But Twitter personalities will certainly use it to poke their hornet nest constituency before making that determination, no doubt! ugh But, the 5 and 10 hPa sigma absolutely explode with very high standard deviation warm intrusion, over at the strat-trop monitoring division of CPC. ( https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/ ) ...I like to use temperature detection as a first look.. But, that's clearly an intrusion event ( antecedent larger scaled planetary wave decay delivering thermal payload ..). The quickness in emergence, and the geometric morphology immediately ensuing, evinces that... And, although there was some excited solar activity since autumn, ...the longer term budget is still very much in a deep minimum, so ozone populations is probably high (enough). Well hell...okay, just looked and it does appear there are modest positive anomalies trapped within the mean PV aoa 100 hPa (ppm). ... one can see those at the same source ... Anyway, the QBO was entering a favorable late summer --> autumn negative phase, which is somewhat correlative with these warming stratosphere events, so... obviously you must be aware of that.. heh. We'll see. It fits.

Seems like the whole world is still in gawk mode over it but I’d like to know some of the geological statistics. Like how does it rank on the scale? Etc. What was the aerosol/plume concentration / assuming … what altitude was it shot to - judging by the satellite pictures it looks like it went all the way to the stratosphere.

I don’t know if it is though… Kinda depends on how many decades one’s suffered or celebrated. For those born later than 1990? This is an unprecedented bad streak. For those born before 1990 it just seems like maybe it’s cyclic. having said that… I do think there’s a problem with the models slowing the flow down too much in the mid range and then having to speed it back up to a reality; problem with gradient and velocity regardless of Enso or Teleconnectors - might be the tip off that there’s something more deeply systemically rooted that’s causing that. Whether that cc or just an emergent problem with these advances that they’ve been turning out with all these new versions – in fact they’re pumping them out too fast for me to trust them sometimes Oh … never mind. Thought you guys were talking about something else.

We may be seeing an onset of SSW before the end of the month. Early heads up

It’s warmer over Logan in the FOUS

That's what the system before this one look like, remember that - we joked because the spread was like a small country

Well I'm not totally serious either.. that's why said 'rant over'

I think you guys are confusing the usefulness of starting a thread for an active interval that host significant event, with whether said interval is in line with whatever it is that gets your rocks off. The active thread now? Looks to verify perfectly.. Jesus - ... the weather forecasting science/art is not here to placate your fantasies, and knowing "when" to launch a report based on whether a threat jives with that nudity is/was never part of its charge or reason for existing. Aside ..if it snows early Monday at all you'll like like an ass Rant over - you may not re-engage in your regularly scheduled programming-

ECMWF is out to get us free-loaders ... haven't seen the EPS since Thursday night as all my poach sites aren't updating LOL ...

20th - 25th ... preferably 23 and 24

Certainly is colder on the NAM FOUS grid over ALB and Logan by a couple C's in the 900mb level... Not sure how it relates to the appeal in the graphics, but ... Again, I've been mentioning the NAM's propensity to collapse SE, when bringing events from outside the 48 ... 36 hour, to closer intervals. We'll see where it goes...

Ha ha, right ... It is flying in the face of a lot of climate conventions. That said, I do think the ridge in the west is in fact slightly farther west than ideal - that is by no means intended as the silver bullet reason for these warm solutions. Nor the general mise en science of this being more major pain in the ass, than a major storm... But, I get what Will/others are suggesting re the NAM's apparent 'talent' at seeing mid level warm intrusion events there... What I have a "teensy" problem with still, is that the NAM also has a NW bias over eastern N/A, with N turning amplitude. It's in the mid levels where that is notable, with vort trajectories tending to be first in line showing up over the N-W arc of plausible solutions. This strikes me as "maybe" some of that. I mean it's inCREdibly tedious to consider this, but... 2 degrees of longitude where ever the wind max(es) cross 40 N, means the difference between 4" ... 2" ...8"... Plus, whether cold stays anchored enough to lift wind concerns... jeez - lot riding on that. We still have 48 hours, when/where small corrections of that nature can fit. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen a warm 60 hour FOUS grid end up colder <36 hours out... It's not anything anyone should hang their hat on to 'save the day' ... but you know. There's obviously an investment in the desire arc of those contributing to this social media platform, to save what can be saved ...all the way down to moral victories if need be. LOL. When we don't have a blocking high, it all comes down to mid level tracks, and the NAM has a history of being NW.

So NAM is Buffalo and he Euro is the Patriots ... in head to head Divisional round playoff game this weekend. Heh Finding it interesting that the NAM's the consensus Vegas pick over any model that exists, for predicting synoptic scaled events - oh how times have changed...

Not really much to add here ... Still just sort of taken by the oddity of this thing. It's doing a few things actually, that fly in the face of a lot of different climate convention. At this point, it is what it is I suppose.

From what I’m seeing the NAM’s wind max at 500mb comes north slightly east of previous runs, but the surface ends up west of those fixes. This high coming in tomorrow is absolutely useless, and odd… it just literally gets out of the way and placates this thing moving up in that weird anti-climate fashion

NAM is likely exercising its immutable rights to be too far NW at 60 hrs Adding insult to injury. It’s west of everything.

Just bothered to look at the 18z GFS sfc evolution... We're not getting much substantive analysis over these disseminations any longerProbably event fatigue as set in. I know I'm hand tossing and done .. But, I can say I doubt this run can happen in reality. It's not going to start commiting to new low in the outer Bite region SSE of L.I., even hinting at closing an isobar, then suddenly ... give up and end up with a 975 mb low N of ALB 4 to 6 hours later. It's more likely to commit less to that new center entirely, or, commit more - but that hopscotch act is less likely.

I like ( ish ...) the 23th-25th, myself

... I was just noticing something interesting...this quasi closing S/W in the deep south, responsible for this event, may never see the Atlantic skies. It rolls up into eastern Canada in most guidance, bi-passing phase entirely ...to where it just opens up and loses identity, decaying into the back ground isohypsic flow. Gone... It's comes into existance as a phase over ~ Kansas, does a parabolic p.o.s. motion, gone. Usually these things trundle on to contribute/evolve into new events down stream. Eerily doing this for one aspect, getting a rain against all cold odds... That's a neat trick LOL

Here's the 18z NAM's 24 hr 2-M temp layout... just so this makes more sense as a rain maker