Typhoon Tip

Heh. Hopefully they got white paint on their pallets

Yeah… I’m still not really leaning, frankly because there are too many problems with the broader canvas

Yeah it was a weird decade man…. There was snow at times sure but the vast majority of the times it seem like the long wave axis favored being situated right over our heads, which is too far east. So they were so many ocean storms, near misses or Cape Cod maulers … usually at the expense of a two day blizzard watch all the way back to Worcester that verified with 1 to 3 inches of flurries and dim sun. Few lakes cutters …- it was unrelenting brutality for weather dweebs, and snow days? I think I experience three snow days that decade, rare enough to think there just needed The Day After Tomorrow to happen. Oh but we got the cold after every f’n miss

Agreed. Difference between nothin better to do vs utterly boring. Heh

Partial. if that spv were to capture we could start talkin whole way. But that’s not happening there - yet

Yeah it’s definitely got better shortwave mechanics physically delivered into that trough… Seems like that has been trending but the NAM’s known for yankin chains.

That is slightly amusing… For those in my generation can understand the following statement: we used to walk to school in 4° cold with 20 mph wind gusts in cold snaps in the 1980s. Thing is I’m not prepared to blame this completely on the pandemic culture that’s formulated over the last two years… Because school districts began issuing closings and delays for much much less years before the pandemic

Course we all know the real motivation here is that communities and townships and schools and where ever are all reeling from fear of Covid… And schools are traditionally a petri dishes anyway – it’s got to be a scary prospect for people that are paranoid about cooties risking the digression… These variances are following the epidemiological arc of novel viruses, in that they are weaker than the original. To the straw man, Society needs to get a grip and get some humility and stop feeling entitled to some kind of euphoric physical experience. Guess what ? we’re all going to get sick eventually and guess what else, we’re all gonna die eventually. in the grand scheme of things and all things considered this omicron variant is not going to cause the latter - most likely Unless we are putting up death counts like the original… It’s all needs to be accepted as part of head cold maintenance; and guess what people die from head colds too if they have pre-existing conditions

Really looks to me like a vast majority miss. Unless one wants to invest in the three or four outliers on the NW edge. I wouldn’t if given that spread.

Heh … That could be on the woman, if by election she stayed late - not checking or being aware. Did he tell her that she’s getting fired if she didn’t stay late?

One should also look for these isohypses to take on more curved structure/flow exiting the coast, too - I'd actually suggest that is critically missing here... That "might" actually be a correction forthcoming - I was mentioning earlier in the day that the trough between the west and the formulating -NAO is was sans significant S/W input but ...seems the models had an ear to that memo because ever since, we've been trend more as your chart above shows. If it gets much stronger it'll start sending out that curvature ahead.

That's a bit of a specious distinction, frankly. It may seem so when looking at the previous run, but if you go back several, it's really been wandering around out there... some cycles farther SE- E and SW event. Spanning the last 4, there's really not much of a trend there. But just the last 2 cycles may appeal so

GEFs have, in essence, the same favorable look... Again, I've been hitting the 270-300 hr range therefrom ..etc. It's just not clear if a real event is in there, or that's just the larger scaffolding of the pattern passing through it's maximization. I've been looking at the ens PP means of the GEFs, they've also been off and on closing contours basically 240 - 330 for that matter. The numerical telecon of the PNA isn't hugely convincing but it is modestly positive. It would be better served ( confidence) if that would camel hump to go along with these graphics. That's been an interesting story that no one probably is even aware of unless they have a life like mine which is that the numerical equivalence of the graphics have not been aligning very well. The numerics/curves of the PNA should like more formidable given the graphics. I guess the only purpose for telling this is that less amazing events fit the numerical/EOF results; the graphics sell more.

Yeah, as far as the operational Euro goes ... this run is one perpetual negative interference scheme, ...beginning 72 hours right out to D8... In fact, it's in the process of demolishing the D7/8 event I was ( personally..) keeping track of. The 12z GEFs also blurred/backed away from that vision quite a bit, too. Sooo ... I say we blame Ray? I say we start a troll session for his making the impertinent verbal jest about rollin' snake eyes only to come up in the end knee deep in a RNA that sends us into the 80s again in February - nice goin' LOL

I was just gon' defend you LOL ... 'I thought he said relative to pattern - ' Although, the -PNA on roids wasn't really a favorable pattern for me. Particularly when it -NAO tried to obtrude exertion S along the EC at the same time said -PNA was attempting to raise heights. That was why 300 mb flight level velocities were 200 mph.. yikes!

Yeah, this is a whole new peregrination to the theme out there.. Wasn't there before - certainly nowhere near as obtrusive... Should be noted, there is a telecon drop in the NAO ... Perhaps +1 --> -1 --> neutral, over the next 10 days, and that vortex's behavior would tend fit that, particularly if the transient blocking pulses over the western limb/D. straight region. I recall some Euro runs had this 4 days ago but seem to lose it.. .But seeing as the telecon ( American ) has the NAO bounce, I dunno. More headaches ...

Nice coverage by y'all overnight. Concur with wdrag re the wave space contentions. The gist: we enter a pattern steeped in big potential; capped by negative interference. Longer thoughts: Should any one of these waves "correct" or open up in guidance by even a little, there's apt to be a hefty return on storm genesis - it may take the 72 hour window for the models to emerge that, as anything near -side of the mid range and beyond seems to be muddled by native model bias. I personally still like Monday... It was a D9-11 ( for those following..) notion at last event end, now D7/8. I wonder if/when the operational GFS ( and to some extent the Euro) stop tussling on the two waves the GGEM is not fighting over, and start favoring that period for just such a plausible correction mentioned above. The thing is, the 13-14th system to me almost looks fake. I'm noticing in all the guidance ( really ), there is a bit of a +PNA --> ridge assessment happening 48-84 hours off the 00z; consequentially, that is "kinking" the flow into a trough due to natural ordering of L/W forcing immediate down stream. The models than use that, but here's the thing they are using that alone, without the benefit of very convincing actual S/W input ( or at least less impressive). Given in situ the ginormous native instability where and whenever the west Atlantic thermal source meets a continental spilling polar air mass, that's all the excuse these runs need to spawn that big low. Noticing it's broad circulation with several cyclonic nodes ...It just looks like much of it is thus artificial to me. We'll see. There's likely to be something there - I'm wondering how much. If less..less interference lends to more conserved late in the weekend/early next week. Not a thread -worth idea just yet, but I'm poised should more members start looking like the GGEM. Heh...I would almost never side with the GGEM at this range, and I'm not. But, there is reason to suspect just the same. Having said all that... There is a much bigger signal in the deep range, 270-ish hrs. It's been lurking...fi we want to call that range lurking. I mentioned yesterday that it could either be just the pattern maximization, OR, ... one of those upper tier scenarios that begins showing up at unusually long-leads, due to having overwhelming physical significance in the total circulation mode. There are a few that performed this way in guidance... 1993, Sandy leap to mind, but I'm sure we could dig up others. Anyway, might be that... might just simply be the pattern getting to it's more dominate form before entering decay... I will say that the 06 z GEFs mean did manifest an impressive signal around that time, with multiple close pressure contours, and a 48 hour QPF outlook well over an inch.

Not that anyone should care but I don’t give a bean about snow pack at all …unless the rest base has a chance to break the snow depth record and we were so far removed from anything close to that kind of universe it really doesn’t matter to me - get rid of it As usual I just like interesting meteorology.

Course this 18 ZGFS solution comes up with an entirely different alternative solution which is not to have anything happen at all. Well I guess the clipper is there if anyone needs to believe it … heh

Sure do ... I'm wondering if that is just the pattern's apex around that, vs one of those rarities where a signal has so much physical presence in the super synopsis, that it starts showing up at exotic lead times in the dailies ( Sandy, 1993, etc...) - if so, we may begin to see it? I only suggest because looking at the GEF individual members, some of them have very large deep solutions along the EC... Like KU on roids

What's liable to happen here is that some run in the future over the next while will go absolutely crazy with a storm vision. What is sorta happening in the models through the mid range/extended is that wave space contention is essentially holding back a huge potential lurking in what is really a pretty extraordinary large scale. As soon as a couple of these wave open up and stop competing, any one of them could go ludicrous

yeah, considering what that looked like yesterday at this time, that's an improvement for two reasons.. 1 .. it is more nucleated 2 .. it is not as fused in with that Maritime low at the top of the frame. Yesterday the mean was clearly interfering those. They may still be, but less

heh ... that Euro solution is wonky - Been discussing the period of time for a couple of days and yeah, there's something there but that's just a weird solution. What do we expect at D8 I suppose -

Exactly my sentiments... I've been monitoring the D8 ( was D9-11 in posts two days ago ). It's the more coherent of the two, among both major ens means.

Still looking like a middling signal what was D9 yesterday ( now 8 ...) is probably the realistic event/early awareness. There is an ominous signal in the deeper range. In fact, there as many or more GEF individual members with large, deep solutions along the ES than there are carrying for the D8 system...