Typhoon Tip

Yeah... ( personally ) not really motivated one way or the other on this ... exactly where I am at thread start - plenty of room for this thing to tact along with the western members - which by the way folks, that spread contains all the intensity ( for the most part...). That's telling in the sense that intensity of the S/W feed is very important in this thing. Brian makes a wonderful point about that... And not attempting to take from his insight, but I mentioned that a couple pages ago ..the overnight runs seem to be waffling on that handling over the continent once it is delivered off the Pac in ...96 hours ( like uhhh, that too -)

Probably behind but just saw the jaw -drop 500 mb synoptic evolution of the GGEM ... wow

Ha ha... I didn't even look at the sfc evolution. ...I mean, beyond the idea that this is the ICON at 120 + hours... I didn't like the 500 mb V handling and got pissy.

Sure ... ... for L/Ws left unperturbed,they will tend to become orderly and symmetric like above. When L/W are no longer in stasis... i.e., a S/W space enters the left side and propagate through, it will stress ( 'stretch') this shape, and the symmetry is reduced while that is taking place, but since mass in the atmosphere is not lost or destroyed, the integral masses will remain the same - constantly being restored by the wind/air motion... So, using this basic precept: our ridge in the west bumps maybe a half a time-zone E, just because it too is answering to outside forcing. But the short-wave spacing that it is propelling out ahead ( the driver for our 'would-be' storm of interest), runs out ahead by almost double. It can happen... because the long wave may simply end up taking on an orientation like this, See.. here the 'Y' region in the west, and the 'X' region in the east look less mirrored, but don't violate the integrals ... The trough is pulled in the west to east direction ( which I called the x-coordinate) ... that may not seem problematic to the lay-person, but I don't see why the stretching has to happen at the end of this week, because: Stretching can happen and does when the flow is fast. However, the flow as modeled appears to be slowing. Seems that's a little off... ( maybe-) to pull that flow structure. There is a strongly coupled relationship between long wave structure, and the short wave structures that modulate because of the former. If this L/W is being pulled in the east to west direction down stream of the western ridge, too much, than it will feed back negatively on S/W entering trough part of the total L/W space in the east.

Full disclosure my way ...I'd call the purpose of this engagement a success if while we close the gap on days this remains relevant. The purpose of this thread, to put it nicely,... is the philosophy and recognition, early synoptic super structures and those facets therein that lend to increasing possibilities. Going to the casino to play the game of chance can be a certainty; whatever happens there is not. We should be able to maintain some semblance of cogent categorization, and not behave as irresponsible throngs storming the White House as malcontent nimrods. And yes ... of course, snark and jokes are always welcome lol.. But, just to be clear, it's not intended for assessing whether a system impacts one's back yard, nor to advance any expectation for week's worth of dependable d-drip on some kind of e-psychotropic cinema addiction. If those are the expectations, your likely to be disappointed more than stoned - just warnin' 1 .. high confidence for a significant event, for one analytic, the other symbolic. Analytically, this system has a deep history in the ensemble means. It really began ( arguably...) showing up when this was 300 hours back in the day. I remember commenting that there was a large signal beyond the two events were covering at the time. Symbolic and a-priori, bigger events in the atmosphere, sometimes show at unusually long leads. It seems this system festering in the clusters regardless of where, might be a candidate. 2 .. where is in question - not trying to cop out. I was clear last night that I was not sure what to make of the yo-yoing gong on between west and east positions - but it's also f'ing D8 at the time. I will note that the Euro has yet to put out that big dawg solution. I almost wonder if there's a sneaky value-add to see that at least once, ... before of course it summarily then loses it as though ECMWF corporate intended to send the psychosis meter pressed toward the fever pitch end - I dunno, maybe they're just trying to find the best time place the tack on the chair. Ha! 3 .. there are still reasons on the table for the present overnight EPS/GEFs means to plot back NW ... Lest we recall, just prior to the last event, these guidance were persistently situating deep solutions over ACK to the BM, run after run ..after run, and it ended up W of the Hudson. Not sure this won't eventually manifest that same sort of error. We are heading it would seem, ...into an impressive -EPO. In fact, the event in question happens as that is emerging. That's interesting ... Even though the block associated with the former, is where it is, and we are way over here.. that does provide and interesting non-linear suggestion for subtracting the W-E bias of the field down stream of it. That's a fuzzy concept for some most likely, but just think of that as systems down stream respond to a more N-S exertion that isn't really observable on the weather map. This is advance wave mechanics/theory, non-linear forcing. Linear wave forcing is when A --> B --> C ... D, directly, but non is when A --> D, but B and C may not observe any influence. 5 .. it has a bigger risk upside than other systems this year, so at 50/50 It has that 'it' factor, where if things come together, we're likely seeing a system evolve pretty far above the mere middling. Those are deterministic values for now... My personal observation of the overnight is that the < L/W mechanics spaces are also weaker. Weaker in this scenario is not helping matters for west enthusiasts, because a stronger system would propagate a S/W ridge component out ahead, and that would help feed-back toward the left. Also, I'm not confident the flow structure down stream of the W ridge is handled quite right - possibly related to that. It's not progressive, so it gives the allusion that the runs are trying to stretch the L/W into an less likely X-coordinate length.

This run compared to last run … if you click back-and-forth you can really see how the sensitivity is purely related to the progressivity of a flow (less to more); in any one of those paradigms there’s a significant storm and possibly a major one …but it where? It comes down to a matter of that maddening yo-yo with what’s surrounding it.

This is a long lead heads up for a potentially strong cyclone over the eastern U.S./ .. western Atlantic, only. That said ...it has enough presentation in the various model clusters, and persistence too, to initiate the focus. Though we are far from a deterministic forecast, this system hm has some risk upside. Short list of notables: -- this potential begins 7.5 days away for N GA, and perhaps exits Maine D8.5/9. , ... It's not impossible that this system slows down ( more blw), such that it's into the 31st over the NNE/ME. It is also potentially a larger system size. By virtue of that alone it may take more than a two periods to completely finish a location. -- as that suggests, this may impact multiple regions from the interior SE U.S. and up along the I-95 megalopolis to SNE, NH and ME. This is a fluid interpretation/subject to change. But when we get into multi-region, multi-faceted systems, even a moderate storm aggregates a major problem. -- may want to check tides/ lunar, as this system may be ISE loaded and should it slow down... it may protract across more than a singe tide cycle. This type of storm, we have no observed in recent years. Unlike last January, when the super synoptic manifold entered a slowing of progression, with relaxing gradient, but no embedded mechanics, this appears attempting to do so. Concepts: We've been monitoring this for a week now, and thus it has established history. Sometimes important events show up at longer leads ... and keep re-appearing - I've been wondering if we're living that. That would be true if it hits a backyard or not... Slowly the various ENS means have become more ominously suggestive. The most recent runs of the GEFs and GEPs ( 18z and 12z respectively..) were still continuing along favorable trends, well established spanning multi cycles. The sense here is higher than model-climate odds for a significant system. Where it tracks, I have a couple concerns -- I am noticing the sensitivity is very related to the progressive, vs slowing ( timing this latter arrival) of the flow character. Whenever a guidance cycle has reverted back to conserving the progressive character more so, we end up with runs more so ... like the 12z GFS and Euro. When the subtle pattern change to slow progressivity is apparently directing a give model cycle, we get are bells wrung like the 18z GFS... Not sure at the moment which way that will go... I am also noticing there the flow structures over SE Canada having effects on model runs, but that may be related to those same aspects. This about 50/50 right now. If progressivity persists, this ends up east. If this leitmotif in the ens systems to slow takes place, it would be west because N/S meridian tendencies are increasing, and the system ends up farther W. My haunch is that the slow idea is real... how much? It could be damned in between! ugh... But, if we look upstream, there is an emerging -WPO/-EPO out there D6-10. That is blocking ...native to that tendency, progressivity tends to slow, and the meridian aspect manifests. So that's were I lean presently.. We'll see -- Plus, there is also the S/W mechanics them selves... If there is more N/stream insert, we may see a subsume phase... vs less, like this 18z run. 18z is a purer Miller A. Should the this slow down and trend Miller B, this is a bright signal and that would likely manifest with equal prominence to put it lightly. But much of this is also indirectly related to above, as those are larger waves creating constructive vs destructive interference nesting. -- The other aspect ...which is highly experimental.. I've been noticing that the last two significant systems we've covered had a tendency to be too far E in ens means, at this range... and eventually, clusters conceded to the higher resolution/physically tested operational version.

Ah right. Forgot that limitation of the hour.

That’s what I needed to see thanks !! spread? - if not too much to ask

yeah ..honestly, the key is leave p-type out haha

Something like that 'bomb on rad E only' happened near the end of 2014's winter... March. We had a really fantastic beast out there, for days it was always within error margins to be historic like ...on land. But just never did and stayed just too far E. I think the Cape did okay. Heh, the other day ... folks were discussing/trying to recall Cape specials.. no one mentioned that one.

It might be ... It doesn't stop the significance of the signal, nor (probably) the significance of the storm itself if it misses, but try explaining that to anyone that lives between NYC and CAR. I'm confident enough to fire a thread off even at D7.5 which is probably more normal for me, but I cannot get around the risk of this region watching a dream bomb E on radar, despite even adept foresight. I was explaining earlier that that the runs that revert to progressivity bias, whiff... Runs that show that backing off ( and the flow its self slowing enough that S/W have bigger mechanical force in the stream(s)) end up like the 18z-esque. The GEFs ensemble mean is showing dangerous spread west with Cat 4 hurricane pressure depths... there's got to be some solutions in that membership that best even this operational one - wow. I think I'll let the chips fall where they may if the 18z EPS trends favorably... I've been on the fence with this f'cker all day.

Progressive ( you now this just sayn' ..) doesn't mean fast in the sense of packed isohypses resulting in fast flow... Progressive means the L/W and S/W are moving east, faster relative to climo, and that storm tracks propagate right of the predecessor... so if you miss a storm E, the next one misses even farther east.. And models will bully waves in - the flow in the 12 Euro is progressive. The flow in the 18z GFS is pretty neutral. That flow out there (abv), looks neutral, but saturated with gradient. -EPO dump down Pacific-Canada, which will temporarily stall a L/W there.. .and hopefully for storm enthusiasts, splits a separate jet across southern Canada,

Anecdotally and perhaps a telltale sign ... we used to note back in school that these 'fish hook' mid level troughs tend to be nasty

Jokes aside ..the local hemisphere ( at least ..) has been trying to move ( if perhaps transiently) away from that faster characteristic basal flow state. The reason I did not do a thread this morning, is because I am noticing - funny you joked ... - that the runs where that migration is more successful have been resulting in this type of cycle ... 06z also fits..00z mid way. The ones that don't are like the 12z GFS/Euro operationals - but the ens means were telling us those were outliers so I'm not concerned about that particular rendition as it was a bit extreme in violently whiplashing back to fast flow. I'd like to see preferentially fast or slowing because the sensitivity to how this thing effects us appears to be two sources of uncertainty: SE Canadian U/A ...and that progressive vs slowing nature. Those are big moving factors to bet against and seeing as this is 8 days away there's no reason we have to thread it out now. Though admit this thread is getting bogged down -

That JMA model is fun to watch... wow. Actually not altogether too different than the UKMET... and might actually offer a reasonable look at what the UKMET's extrapolation might result ... getting from 168 to 192.

Yeah.. .I'm not sure I buy this continuity break, introducing a bully wave that obtrudes into previous idea and kicks everything - seems the models having trouble with the fast nature of the flow and timing. So which features will avail of that window and settle in...? It's just as likely they revert back to first in the two as the dominant - I mean this is typical for how this works... There is a duple eject through the west and the models yo-yo which wave space to focus upon; seldom do we get both, and usually the first in the series takes the lead, because it's just the ordering ... It was in line so is first to avail of the large scope favorable feed-back. The atmosphere is like that - first come, first serve

that's not a bad look there Jerry, no - That's almost the climate bomb signal there ... not having high pressure N is a value negative. If it did, the extrapolation there would be a fuller capture and probably a 6 or so hour long excessive deepening rate, as that low is moving N...then briefly NW...before a fuji type wobble then moves NE toward NS.

I suggest this is the date we should monitor ..

yeah, how could anyone be encouraged by the trends overnight with that... Interesting, was leaning toward a consensus 2-4" coalescing among the runs. Plus, the NAM having a NW bias in that range - egh. There are still synoptic arguments for more but it gets hard to employ those when the next runs seem to deliberately go out of their way to mash them out of existence. hahaha

way behind this morning ( sorry ..) but that's an interesting comparison. Dec '92 started as rain and ended as powder with temperature in the high teens, spanning the total 24 to 30 hours of the event. Not everyone's accounting of the event is likely to agree, as this took - perhaps - longer to evolve for SE zones, where in fact it may have ended before that level of cold could be reached. That's actually interesting ... I wonder what the last 6 hours of that was like down in Fall River and so forth... Anyway, the day before, giant jungle drop rain propelled by gusting ENE wind, tended to sheet and whack face and nape at angles. I've told story of this event ...won't recount now.. Those drops must have contained very minute frozen content, ..I mean, such a small amount they were just beneath "white rain" Their largeness, combined with the undulatory oddity speedily moving with the wind amid the sky above, to mention the temperature being 39 F ( roughly 2pm ), these were undoubtedly huge aggregates just melted within perhaps 1000K of the ground. You could almost make out snow in the undulate mass, as it was pixelated, if one were to really focus to the point of a ice-scream headache - which ...guess what dork stood at out there in that cold morass and did that ... ? LOL ( George01) j/k George But that night we flipped in Lowell as the story goes, in shock and awe. Somewhere in the mid 30s, circa 8pm there was a flash of lightning .. a couple of them, with their sonic booms causing buzzing in the ceilings, while pulses of white noise buffed the windows of Fox Tower residential Hall. Then, the sky fell.. Rain flip to snow as a wall. It engulfed all at once. It was truly truly a freak display of gradient. 30 sec. Period. Not exaggeration. No hyperbole. In 30 seconds, that wall came across the river in the night, and heavy rain when to 1/4 mi vis, with yet another flash and boom, in 30 seconds. By dawn, 17" had fallen, the top half of which was like 15:1 at 19 F. So I get where you get that notion of it being marginal, but the storm certainly didn't evolve that way in total.

Does this source carry the 500 mb heights and vorticity ??

Prooobably should desist from using adjectives like “monster” for the time being… Even if you say potential in the front of it it doesn’t really convey the best motive operation moving forward… i’d like to see the ensembles tonight before starting a thread which is what I said - it was contingent upon that. But support has certainly grown considerably in the last three days since we started sniffing this out actually if you really wanna get technical we started sniffing it out a week ago that’s never here nor there now… That’s the quick and dirty deterministic approach for now… as far as your question I would say everybody from the interior south east all the way up the coast is preliminarily in the hunt on this one but that by no means speaks to the any kind of specifics as far as impacts. The critical aspect is that the positive PNA may actually be an emerging thing going on as we speak and I’m seeing that the operational runs are trying to bulge western hgts more; prior to that hgts over the Gulf, adjacent Florida and the southwest Atlantic basin are in situ relaxed which means that if there is any digging into the Tennessee valley it’s not gonna get absorbed in very much velocity shearing so we could end up having a fairly deep solution early on down the coast… Stay tuned

Isn't this the thread for Tuesday's coverage ?