Typhoon Tip

This is an impressive signal growth here... There's some exotically deep members, but the main take away is that is a clear coherent signal at this point. The spread has increased across multiple consecutive runs. The 12z EPS did trend a little ... but I haven't seen the 18 -

Let's see if we can get an exotically early green up that blows through tree growth budget by mid July and sends full yellow color through the canopies by mid August... Now that would be a strange first for the CC evidence.

We have been tho ..heh, some of us. Will...Ray myself. It's on the table. The 18z GEFs actually has a modest signal trend that's better than 12z.

Heh.. not in contrary to that sentiment at all, but I think these 'bizarre nuances' are really not so bizarre/abnormal to a fast, speed saturated hemisphere. It's like splintering and shearing wave mechanics into 'pearling' in that sense... It's hard for any fluid medium to consolidate bigger organized systems in fast flows. There's a larger number smaller perturbations that aggregate the same torque budget. It just that once that wave number ( S/W count ) gets to large, this interference stuff becomes the norm.

Ray and I were discussing this and how the 'typical la nina + E QBO' tends to finish strong, but I had/have reservations because: those climate signals were prior to hell breaking loose on Earth, to put it wildly romantic LOL. Winters have sported eerily hot spells in February's and March's... regardless of ENSO state, recurrent leitmotifs now some 7 years and counting. Perhaps lost in the din because yeah...there's been big snow storms dappled there too, but .. these runs on 80 in Feb are getting a bit disconcertingly connected to the elephant in the room ( imho - )... I've been wondering if apparent disconnect that's increasingly decoupling the ENSO with the circulation mode, might bring an early end one of these times in a bit more of a historic fashion. If we can tap 75 like we did those years... we can definitely do it in that Weekly - assuming a modicum of verification. Time will tell... Also waiting on a correlated SSW ... should that finally take place that may not be yet absorbing into the Weeklies'

Seeing as the GEFs goosed it by a third, wouldn't surprise me. GEPs trended pretty significantly actually ..interesting

Never snowed here today... I'm frankly less optimistic about Tuesday - for the record, I wrote about it yesterday as a "low probability for positive return," and meant it. But did bother to go into some analytic ways in which it could evolve more just for shits and giggles. God this winter is a f'n bore, man - But I'm not so hot on that one ( not that anyone asked ) at this point, because what fleeting chances I gave for improvement, did not materialize on this 12z suite of model runs. The wave mechanics started nosing into the denser materialized sounding/initialization on the 12z and it's still a blown open ravioli mess coming through here. More momentum is still in process of coming in, though ...so it may .. probably not I dunno.

What ? ..uh, we're just talkin' here.

I'm about as confident in the Euro's over all complexion of that range of time as I am in the GFS succeeding in halting society for a yard or more. The Euro's puzzlingly bad performance at 96 hour lead wrt to the weekend "ghost" ...not sure what's up with that but it elevated a suggestion ongoing performance, to something more obviously peculiar going on with that model. I still saw it operate better than the other guidance in a few different facets this winter, so..it's probably endemic to the pattern we are in ... and/or perhaps just that one weird positive trough handling - I dunno. But my point is, we can't ( obviously and duh - ) bank on a climate ceiling depiction at D9 in one hand, while in the other, the Euro's on probation for whatever and whenever it does beyond D3 at this time. I would conclude - thusly - that this is mere noise ... if it were not for the fact that ~ 1/3 to 2/5ths of the GEF individual members I reviewed, carry important Nor'easter up the EC D8-11 - which is a large enough improvement from the 00z cycle to nod to the notion there may be something there. What that is "up in the egregious pun air"

Yup...that's exactly what happened... that wave pushed through the west and negatively interfered with the eastern seaboard.

We'll see where the D8 Euro goes with that pretty 'fish hook' amplitude approaching. There's too much trough pushing new through the W though and could be an unwelcome guest.

That whole model's a flag - as in a white one waving in surrender

Word! yeah... 'magine a storm that blips a down spike across global economic graphs -

Rival? heh... nah, wins is the word. 2013 was a huge storm for a vastly smaller area... This 12z GFS? It is multi-regionally historic/crippling, in the same event. It's also just ISE-wise in another category ... as is coherently suggestive in review: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20130208.html But, that is by no means an attempt to abase the power and majesty of 2013 and hurt anyone's feelings that associates that event spiritually significant to the existence of their soul, either... Just objectively comparing history with this GFS run - which is equally as excruciatingly nerdy a thing to do as the storm in question... hahaha

Funny... I was just thinking about the psychology of that... If that happened, and it never snowed again this season, you'd feel that way for an below average snow year. Lol - now that's funny

Ye ha! lol.. But, I can see why it is doing this - mm...see, it's probably dopey for us to "analyze" that thing but fwiw - it's not the typical model fractal phantasm at 300+ hour emergence. This is taking a full bird Miller A, not a weak one to begin with ... , and it gets utterly subsumed by a N/stream wave that is connected/rooted in planetary scale wave progression across the continent. It's basically the perfect storm or close to it ... about as close to the kinematic ceiling as can really even happen... Buuut... the numerical PNA doesn't have any interest in sending any kind of signal into the east. The graphics look if anything like we are heading for a thaw turning the page into Feb - which is another debate and open still... The GGEM and the Euro had D10 coastals on their 00z. There may actually be something there at that time, but it probably modulates vastly less and more middling - that would be my first stab but we'll see where the ensemble gather going forward.

Good christ ... 20+" just west of the Va Naval yards... at least that much all the way up... In fact, this maxes probably between DCA and PHL with 30+ ... but 20+ clear to southern Maine.

Man.. d-drip solution Chakra channeled straight from Shangri-la solution D8-10 on the GFS That's no HECS ... it's a BECS Bible bomb -

Other way around... the move switch from negative to positive was the focus of the study.

That's a monster at mid levels ... D10 .. vague support at best, however, so best advice is to set one's expectations accordingly - which given those indicators ..expect that NOT to happen. good eye candy.

I think this run, right now this morning ...is sort of pivotal in 1995 for assessing what happens Tuesday of this next week. Not so sure about 2022, tho. ( has that for spaghetti logic) Back whence, ...even through 2010-ish, we could almost count on wave mechanical relays from off the Pacific as having been 'under' assessed, and then they get physically sampled and included in the initialization and ... boom! Pays dividends to the winter enthusiasts over eastern mid latitudes. If not, one might at least observe better model continuity begin moving forward, also getting cross-guidance contention less distracting, too. Sometimes when doing so, what came out was a "Boxing Day Storm," short duration pretty babe pay-off. I have not seen pay-offs since then, like that. In fact, I've seen the opposite happen more often. Different discussion... But the S/W presently nosing over western Canada has been erstwhile over the Pacific for days. It's about to perform an interesting aspect in all the guidance I've scanned. It bifurcates passing over the Canadian lower cordillera, probably because the +PNA ridge is more likely to be considered a "west biased ridge," which stresses/ .. pulls the wave space apart went it starts descending latitude over that region. Anyway, some 1/3 ( or so..) of the wave energy shears off and tucks briefly over the SW... the remaining ballast moves progressively across southern Canada. It's after that that things get complex.. The energy in the SW gets kicked E as the +PNA ridge tries to reassert back into the west early next week. The N/stream then fails to show up at the party. It's too bad too...because the southern stream impulse is plenty to be a phase seeder space, but that N/stream just doesn't contain any meaningful new S/W to drill and have sex. It's okay though... if that southern ejected energy is better looking, it can put on a good show all alone.

Mm ... matter of subjective analysis, but I wonder if that "what if" would be so... If the -NAO was not a part of the larger synoptic circulatory manifold, I suspect autumn of 2006 ... 1999, with a flat ridge sans any meaningful CAA events through that month as likelier. Particularly 2006, stringing days near 60 ... even briefly 70 F. That also happened back in 1999 I believe it was...though it may not have lasted the whole month. I recall a six day stretch in the high 60s, two days of which were in the 70s that December. Both then, 2006 were dominating -PNA with virtually 0 polar mass field modulation S of the 50th parallel. I suspect "would have been" 2021. But that's my take - Having said all that... I agree this year's NAO was too aggressive, either way. What "if" we modulated that -NAO less strong? I have a personal hypothesis: we needed to modulate the -PNA less dominating, because that's the source-origin. The -NAO's character was driven by the former. It's complex, but, the super-synoptic forcing came from non-linear wave mechanics. Think 'rogue wave' phenomenon in the oceans. You have A, B, C, D ... H waves rolling/interacting, constructively and destructively interfering. That type of interaction means waves B and C may physically dump energy into H, while the wave spaces in between do not apparently observe effects. This is as opposed to linear wave interaction, where A directly influence B ... directly influences C ... F and so on. The flow was fast ( what's new since 2002 ~), and the mean polar jet suppressed along the west coast/Rockies, and instead of big direct, linear response of a ridge over the OV, there was a flat ridge, with even a modest trough in the west Atlantic. But all that stored momentum then buckled the flow hugely over ( in particular...) the western limb of the NAO domain region - that's H in this example. It gives the allusion of the NAO obtruding exertion, but it is ultimately caused by the same RNA.

Let us know when it starts …

Yeah... I'd caution folks not do that heh. I realize there's some snark comedy going on with it right now - not sayin' it ain't exactly earned, either. But we all blow it sometimes, and once the local hemisphere exits this 72 - 96 hour window, that needs to "reset" expectations. The look out there in the latter/deeper mid range is different in total so it's apples and oranges at either end of that span of time. Let's also be fair, the Euro corrected by 84 hours. A bit shallow for some tastes, and frankly, a bit out of character considering it's longer term verification profile, too. But, that's not nearly as bad as though it still carries it say ... spooking offices into headlining. The solutions dumped 3 days in advance. I think - not necessarily you per se but the general engagement in here ... - there is this tendency to impugn a guidance if they don't persist with dramatic solutions. It's getting into that aspect where where it seems the resentment is really about modeling experience ahead of time, and not having that be tainted, than it is the actual storm.

Yeah agreed... wrote a bit about that a couple pgs back .. interesting stream interaction could evolve there.