Typhoon Tip

Been awhile since touching down in this thread... Not sure what the status is, so tfwiw - Firstly, re that cold: don't be surprised if it ends up less extreme. These cold waves that take the long trajectory through southern Canada, and then come here while the L/W and N-stream are relaxing, tend to be over modeled at this range. Nonetheless, -20 850s with successful cryo landscape now/then in place will bite. 2nd: Signal around D9 is real ... might be able to play with date, but something is going on out there just beyond the cold wave next week. I wouldn't thread for it at this time, but it's legit. It's been in the deep field ens, perhaps just the "cadence" if you will, more so than directly observable. I believe it was mentioned earlier in the week in the other thread, ' a fuzzy signal mid month..' Anyway, now the 00z EPS and GEFs mean are more materialized in their depiction. The EPS in particularly has rather robust signal, D8 ..10, and it is one that -imho - does synchronize with modes/modalities transmitting downstream, which at larger scales are also multi-model cluster agreed upon. Those being, a quasi -instilled +PNA cyclic flexing, the first of which we have relaxed(ing) height garland from old Mexico to Bermuda, while the flow plumbs toward TV latitudes. The EPS closes off a contour already and runs up to NS. I would be less inclined to mention much of this if the abv mentioned, larger scaled scaffolding were not recognizable. It is also encouraging for "hunch" confidence, because they essentially agree as said. In fact, just for muse for now, the extended range GEFs imply winter rock and rolls from the 20th to some unknown ends.

Cannot really be avoided - you know this ... but every system has a personality in distribution, and it won't be loved by all.

Very glad to see that many realized a good performance after enduring the week's modeling and banter peregrinations ... But lord ..seriously, did some of you not go to sleep last night... LOL. 9:20 am; 27 S- closely ~ 5" in Ayer.

32km looks like grid point/scale feedback. 3km being below that doesn’t suffer from happenstance thunderstorm complex feedback

Yeah... this is an interesting now-cast later evening and night.

There may be a TROWAL formulation getting going. That deeper westerly cyclone node probably occludes to that "fake" low, but in reality ...it may be dominant - in route to becoming so in the next runs. It would be a hoot if all this consternation all week was just convective feed-back hallucinations ... But anyway, as that eastern low decays in future guidance, that increases the elevated warm tongue wrapping back west - I suggest for folks the improved look is less about zonking ( lol, not sure what the means ), and more about shedding the eastern "choke-low"

...I mean... I don't wanna get my ears pinned back if it doesn't. just imagining it could nowcast more impacting. You know ... the convection isn't there - yet. I mean... it's like the models detect instability and 'trigger' from whatever fractals they need to fire it off. But, what if the triggers don't happen? Basically any time a storm gets enhanced(diminished) by "as yet" virtual generated processes, there's no guarantee there. Oh it's likely this thing will have a squadron of super cells out there ( oy ) but that doesn't mean they are also exhaustive on inflow, either. That's a 2ndary - Meanwhile, like Will and I were just surmising how the synoptics look like an NJ model bomb. They do. I can find a lot of cases at NCEP Library where flat open waves with big wind cores missiled off southern Jersey and Brockton Mass got 14" for it.

Oh absolutely ... I mean, I think this could now-cast favorably overnight. I think it's a candidate for a short range improvement scenario.

I agree in principle that either end of that spread might not make a huge difference. Thing is... like I was just mentioning to Scott, the v trajectory climo has y'all in CT -NW RI- eastern MA is a sweet spot. Obviously climo is what it is and not all storms have to obey the mean. Still, there's some impressive frontogenic looks to this along said axis. It'll be fun to watch for convection behavior later in the evening .. overnight. Pleezy weezie with sugar on top, can we bust one positive like the good ole days?

It may yet ... in a way - I mean... even if we don't get some nucleated 980 low 50 Mi fram ACK, I don't think J.Q. Public is going to know the difference or know to care if they are sitting in rush-hour under a frontogenic thump. I keep looking at the PVA track and it's pretty much ideal for heavy snow climo ... 2 deg polar side of the torpedo path - Ryan's right ..this thing is just uniquely odd

Yeah it's really like the RAP just doesn't grid those convective issues at all, so it ends up with 990 mb low and actual Nor'easter look. I dunno how to resolve that difference from those models that do incorporate plausible effects ( limiting as they may be...) wrt to convection out there. Part of me wants to say the flat open wave nature to the total S/W space, with flat-like lead S/W ridging out ahead, would tend to support convective clusters robbing potential vorticity from center. now cast it I suppose... I mean, we'll probably know at about 1 am this next morning if the models were too sensy to the convective parameterization by observing sat and gunk.

Ah ... okay - "SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0945Z THU JAN 06 2022 ...CPRK DATA CENTER DISK STORAGE RECOVERY - UPDATE... -Rebuild of the data storage in College Park continues. ETR is this afternoon. Current Impacts: -WPC, OPC, and CPC's Intranet Sites and Compute farms are down, which is causing their products to be delayed and/or degraded. -FTPPRD is currently down. Shirey/SDM/NCO/NCEP" I was wondering why my go-to products were not updating... We did a study back in the 1990s/college, ... when coms -related modeling delays took place, there was - believe it or not - a rather high correlation coefficients to actually getting nailed by a storm. We thought it was a gag analysis but much to our chagrin - It was pretty remarkable... Now, obviously.. modeling as a tool assist in prognostic weather efforts, was at the time what ... 25 years old? And the internet was less reliable/redundant. Traffic on those particular channels - but we're talking DIFAX charts ( no clue what that means to present generations) Still, if there was anything on the charts that could feasibly becomes a threat aspect back then, one could almost feel good about forecasting an event based upon transmission failures.. LOL.

The NAM's 12z solution has Logan with a 9kt NE wind nearing max of this - 9 kts. Oooh... I just the more I waste life looking at this thing the more and more it is speed contaminated-robbed of life. By the way, the reason why the NAM keeps "chasing convection" is because of the flat bias to the flow immediately downstream of the S/W we've been tracking. More short wave ridge curvature in that area would conserve vorticity inward - think of it as negatively interfering those chase points, while postively interfering back west, and that's the feed-back mechanism at work.

I wonder ... I mentioned this earlier in the season, in passing ..., that it seems whenever more interpolation data is integrating grids, amplitude bias. But more so over the longer performance monitoring. We are consummately seeing big moon bombs coming over the temporal horizons out at the 'horizons' of distance time frames. And then they up more middling by the time they've come toward the shallower end of the mid ranges... interesting. Maybe this situations higher sensitivity exposes that.

Heh ... nothing was 'nailed' at 7 day lead, but I get the gesture. No but this was a pain in the ass. If it goes down like the frappe blend, I give this a C+ ... B-, but an A+ asshole storm. LOL a .. I was in fact not right about the anticipation for a better western ridge. Not sure why ... but objectively, that is so. Historically, more could ( if not "should") have happened when a PNA mode abruptly rises from -2, to +1 SD. Doing so with a well timed S/W ... what could go wrong? b .. Well for one, the western ridge isn't happening as it could ( or perhaps "should"). If so... we likely would not have suffered quite as many peregrinations over the course of this last week. More like normal painintheassitude c .. Related to that ... compression/velocity biased flows tend to narrow error latitudes. Hyper precision track this, and intensity that are needed, such that nuance effects prognostics in bigger ways. Like, we've seen at run times all of 2 deg longitude, or so much as 5 mb of intensity variance, and Framingham Mass goes from 3" or 12," ... only to have it bump east 3 by 6 mb and now their in for 2" ...while some other model blips a tiny correction the other way, and product reverses. A more typical coastal storm manifold ( according to "storm climo" if we will.. ), allows for such subtleties, and here we are not given that at D5 or even 3 ahead of this thing. It's bit of a tall order. I mean this has been sort of cruel for deterministic pistol suckers. c .. So the flow couldn't really "slow" - I put that quotes because more curved, N-S orientation to the flow would have been a way to compensate for gradient, some. Flow would still have maintained vestiges of progressivity, but that would spread things out some, too. I dunno.. this preliminarily strikes me as the same speed contamination bullshit we've been seeing as an increasing propensity since the year 2000, ...every winter. Not sure if that sort of "got in the way" - speed as a canvas would tend to offset ridge height and trough geometry ( N-S)... so maybe that can be physically shown.

Right to warnings with the red skies in morning?

He nailed the west trend this evening … seriously. I dunno. I think Forky’s alright. We’ve PMed about stuff he’s fine. As a group we just have a lot of armpit sniffers that are nervy and hyper sensitive.

Ok new rule. let’s nip the ‘coming in hot’ euphemism in the bud.

Know what’d be funny … if we had a poster lurking that works for the modeling division at NCEP and that individual was a troll

GFS so far looks like last nights 0z

Heh that might just have resulted the greatest return of likes ratio to size of post ever recorded. 12::7 … amazing

Hm. Probably not the place for it.. but it looks like the synoptic super structure of the hemisphere will tip cold at mid latitudes, from Jan 15 ... --> 20th+ ... onward to some open ended distance. The other aspect I'm liking is that all ens extended graphics, and the numerical presentations (teleon values) are bouncing the PNA from neutral to positive around 3-5 day periodicity. No more cellar PNA - the longer term circulation mode of the EAMT --> Pac doesn't really look like it would return. We can do that with a fast flow, however... but if the AO/NAO are legit negative, which they appear to be in the time frame, that period gets interesting. The AO is important WITH the NAO ... Negative NAOs in a fast flow footprint aren't really good for us. But with AO help, that's probably going to pull the EPO down and things get interesting. Of the two 'main' camps... I'd say the GEFs is most representative ... I only see the EPS to D10. But the EPS doesn't look likely to me. I have to say, I'm not sure what the scoring is the EPS general layouts, but it's been the more unstable of the two for those D8-10 means. Don't quote me ...

Chris my personal belief is that this S/W is being undermined by the poor western ridge/lax expression therein; frankly, it doesn't atone very well for a total +2 SD recovery of the PNA. Not sure why the ridge didn't get just a wee bit more of boost. I have been noticing over the last two days of models, ... as little as 3 dam growth has always accompanied the more robust/west strikes with this thing - it's that sensitive. Flat tho... and fast. Both attributes I was over sold on when starting this thread. I thought that concomitant with the western ridge being more like a g-damn +PNA arrival... the flow would also slow at least some. Neither of those is really being modeled to do so - best laid plan. As is..its truer power is perhaps hidden a bit. Models have routinely been under bellied by 120 kt 500 mb flags ... to as much as 150 at 300 at times, regardless of the low arc curvature of the trough - If that ridge in the west had done it's part, this thing would would definitely been extreme. Agree with Will's concept that this is entirely ( for now...) mechanical forcing associated with Q-v. It seems to me that low being situated on the right exit region therein, is more because there lower trop. baroclinic gradient is probably more intense in that region ... laid in place by tomorrow's CAA. Blah blah ..so as the jet noses over the M/A... But my hunch is folks need to watch the region ~ 2 deg or even 3 deg left of roughly the 534 non-hydrostatic contour. I could wonder if frontogenic forcing may bust some qpf lags

Ha well ... my "thoughts" and vestments were purely intellectual - I'm not personally 'bummed out' or whatever by these recent model scenarios. I know what you were after - the finger wagging thing.

mm I thought this storm had a reasonable chance be more prolific than that - full disclosure :/