Typhoon Tip

12z Euro trending heavily in favor of 120 hours at 500 mb; doesn't result, but the trend is real... What a mess that mid /ext range is -

Hmm ... I wonder if there's a teleconnector: https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/08/asia/pakistan-muree-snowstorm-death-intl/index.html LOL

Kind of an interesting observation outside right now. Winds are gusting maybe 30 mph while it's 33 F in a mist of light rain. But, some of the snows that lingered in their stenciling of the tree limbs is being knocked to the vagaries of the winds, and sets to whirling in the breeze as though immediately it is still powdery in nature. It's like a recording of the colder recent times, spilling into the present tenths of a failing "warm" up - it's a temp recovery, but it ain't warm out there.

Saw that last night, and it's really more of a continuation of that which was set into motion, within the GEFs mean, a few days ago; the 15th - end of the month. The difference overnight, there is a subtle (if perhaps eventually telling ) honing around the 300 hour range. Hard to say if that's a pattern maximization, vs one of those rarities where a signal has so much physical presence in the super synopsis, that it starts showing up at exotic lead times in the dailies ( Sandy, 1993, etc...) Time, ironically ... is the only thing that will bring circumstances into emergence and figure out which is which... But that is for now, a huge teleconnector convergence on that time frame, elucidated rather nicely with your animations/annotation. Naturally I'm in agreement on the two weeks of favorable circulation mode(s) overall. I was commenting with the NY members over there yesterday, that I am wondering if this may enter an "R-wave storm" event, mid month+ The Last time this happened was 2015 ... 2013 back toward the Lakes... They usually come with distinct re-enforcing events, perhaps a 3 to 5 day periodicity between, in total taking two or three weeks to exhaust before rollout - There was a meteorologist many decades ago that postulated these as more like planetary storms, each discrete events like squalls within - getting metaphorical but the idea was couched similarly. I've always rather liked the concept of that, however. It's one of the "cozy" assertions that just feels right. Anyway, wandering sorry lol. But other notable years were 1995-1996 and 1977-1978, but not as analogs, for occurrence. Locales can amass > 50% of a seasonal quota that way. They define intraseasonal anomaly scopes.

Oh that. Okay right. that run also trended in the GEFs mean

Are seeing the individual members, or the mean? - I guess I mean what is the source ??

This 18z GFS shows what Will and I were mentioning earlier ... there's room in the synoptic scaffolding for that clipper to settle in and amplify... This run not only does so, but the "possible" newly arriving -NOA over the western limb pays immediate dividends to snow enthusiasts by back-logging/jamming it up to snow itself out. That would be late Thursday and Friday... This is a break in continuity however; I'm not incline to think of it - not even one we want to see LOL - as having any particular merit until it there are similar changes from different sources. It's a little odd that it did so at 120 to 140 hours, but that's right on the cusp of giving latitude to the model vs impugning it so it's just as well, noise. It could be as fun a period coming as it may be frustrating at time. If some how the clipper does go on to do more, it will impact the likeliness of that behind it D9. Re the -NAO... some of these runs are doing weird stalling/galaxy mergers out there in the Atlantic, and it is almost like they detecting the NAO forcing before the block actually materializes - interesting.. GFS did this 5 days ago with a 950 mb low on the BM - obvious bs but it's homaged.

What Will gave .. but also, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products Good luck navigating that site though - it's a quagmire of links, often just ending up in a descriptive essay about what you want to see without actually showing it...

Tough time with wave interference ... Plus, Euro tends to over amp corrections relaying logistically from D5's to 7 so a little leery from that mechanism too. Earlier today the EPS/GEFs were vague albeit still observably interested in D8-10, but we've also been discussing that range as negotiable ... There's plenty of room for amplitude with the clipper prior to. Also, hmm may be a 3 to 5 day periodicity an "R-wave storm" event mid month... Last time this happened was 2015 ... 2013 back toward the Lakes... They usually come with distinct re-enforcing events, in total taking two or three weeks to exhaust before rollout - just wondering. Other notable years were 1995-1996 and 1977-1978 ... ( not as analogs, but for occurrence). Locales can amass > 50% of a seasonal quota that way.

heh... yeah. I think we end up favoring one or two, but not all three. Which is obvious to say of course.

Agreed ... HA ... had no idea but apparently we've been parroting one another - as I've been pushing many of the same observations/ sentiments over in the NE forum... My general conflicts wrt the super synopsis centers on the apparent disconnect between the CPC EOFs, vs the graphical depictions of the EPS/GEFs blend, re the D7 - 15 time span. The EOFs don't look like the graphics ..particularly in the PNA. For confidence in issuing a thread - for me - would be better served if one agreed with the "look" of the other, for then establishing correction vectoring. The EOF telecon would be blase for amplitude; the graphics say look out for coalescing. In fact, I suspect the Euro/EPS are in neg interference ( also ..). 12z operational may merely be a step in "seeing" the potential. I've noted tendencies for the Euro op to "wash" it's D5+ with subtle amplitude. I'd be willing to hunch the clipper is being over done post Thurs, or it becomes dominant... but not both. I might thread for on Sunday - impetus, an early recognition for potential, but one I too am above the typical modeling confidence for that time range will result in tracking.

Funny... something like 5 days ago the GFS had a 950 mb low on the BM, which from the point of time looking forward was in that same window ... ha

Yeah...that's definitely neg interference pattern in the resulting mean. The individual members may or may do that - but just at a conceptual level, the 1004 mb contour/circumvallate is basically the size of a country out there... If you shrunk that to the normal scale of a cyclone you'd probably have the equiv. ISE of a 970 mb low ha

I'm gonna be interested in the EPS mean ... This operational run has definitely taken a step toward "seeing" the potential in the flow beyond D6. I'd be willing to hunch that future cycles tend to sans one or two of those entities between D 7 and 10, in lieu of more focus on one. It's generating it's own neg interference. The 500 mb evolution centered on D7.5-8 is a gem for huge problems NYC --> NE, but its paltry surface reflection. I don't have a problem with rapidity and repetition, ... but not with such deep features. Those aren't exactly shallow troughs. But the prior/leading EPS means have been pretty consistent with a signal that corroborates the notion for "D9" amplitude in general. The 12z GEFs made a subtle trend toward more depth. The stasis in the elevated PNA ... and now we have a -NAO ? interesting party arrival... west based, arrival. Don't want it statically negative, but with the PNA leading and western ridge in place ( better than recently) this starts to suggest teleconnector convergence ( disparate indicators targeting the same region ) may be evolving.

You know what you need as the perfect revenge elixir ? A 1969 stalled out, cyclic snow band backing redux. Only have less S of Boston to really grind it in -

Clipper D6? ...gotta watch for the tweener systems when bouncing the PNA index

F! ...I had my dates screwy on that early statement .. push 7-9 to 8 to 10. Maybe 11 day... So, yeah, it only underscores the "too early" aspect for a thread, but I do believe the period in question is above the standard model uncertainty for that range. It may also push up in time... There's definitely a signal out there. As far as the 12z details..that's obviously just an artifact of base-line potential, magnified too - as is typically the case at long leads. It's gonna be a wait I'm afraid.

Better 12z GFS rollin' in wrt to scaffolding a significant event D7 - 9, comparing 00z. 00z was too bold with N/stream insertion into the NP, ... causing suppression/compression and velocity problems that ventured on in negative interference to not doing much in the time frame above. The larger super synopsis of the hemisphere leading ...offers more support and probably atones for the EPS ( and GEFs...) signal -above normal coherence for 192 hours off the 00z run. Anyway, 12z has substantive N/stream amplitude descending without out it being so overwhelmingly powerful.. Thus, conserves the S/stream eject through the west underneath ... "possibly" setting stage for more then less phasing. The flow overall in that period is relaxed over the velocity saturation as of recent weeks ( and f'n winters for that matter). Interesting aside, this sort of gradient slackening took place last January, too, thought gradient and speed came back in Feb. The numerical telecon spread is fiddling with the PNA in a not so savory way. It's still neutral ( esque), but seems members slipping neggie out there. Not sure it's real.. We just spent a day and half with server farm/comms problems down at NCEP, so maybe these are temporarily unstable. Both the graphical means of EPS and GEFs, offer wave amplitude ... less neg interference E of 100 W across the continental mid latitudes - Maybe a thread tomorrow...

Mm nah, even accounting for these nuances in measuring techniques ... they don't account for rare 6" back whence, compared to pretty regular one foot occurrences now. ..I mean, not to suppress your notion. I'm just speaking anecdotally ... Although, I have read that quantitative rain has increased globally anyway so there's that - too

I'd really focus on D 9-ish first... heh. One notable under the radar .. if perhaps climate jab about this system today. "Over performance" relative to input parameters, is getting to be a rather regular distinction in winter times over the past decade, particularly the last 5 years. It seems harder to get anything to happen, but I bet you dimes to donuts ... events that break through average higher QP than similar storms of closest objective, comparative intensity, prior to the turn of the century... Perhaps asterisk 1995-1996. This isn't the first time in the last 10 years a 995 mb low put down 16's ... We all know this is true; I remember the collective discussion back in 2015 how we were handing out 12 like Pez dispensing, when 1950 - 2000, the "mean storm depth" ( if there is a such a metric ) was smaller. Perhaps we should make one. Now watch ..the study comes back dead balls on the same. .. You must forgive some of us. We were alive in hell decade.

Except for today, ironically enough lol. but in general, sure ...

The 20:1ness of the snow quality might be problematic without refits, outside of the meso band/lolly axis. The 4-5'ers, those of us skirting that band, sublimation might take some toll on it. That said, it does not appear there is any kind of rapid turn-around in thickness after this thing. In fact, it'll be rather chilly through the weekend. As Will mentioned - there's some sort of whisky boundary threat for rain/snow showers ..probably ending as a WINDEX as that arctic truer blue expression comes through. Between the cold before that front, and the cold during next week... probably what fell is safe. Areas like me to ASH and FIT may be down to grass blades poking through. Squalls can help but not much... Fleeting possibility a clipper like S/W later this week may emerge from the mid range as refit potential but that's long odds.

This reply made me laugh a little... I mean it's like, 'yeah, just get a steady diet of snow storms' and call it day. lol

For winter enthusiasts and that "d-drip contingent" ... post mortem can be tricky on the psyche.. After an event, alleviation of "withdraw syndrome " comes from perpetuity of some kind; and when the model-telecons-ens mean mathodone clinic's open for business ...? ahhhh I'm kidding of course... but we've all been there. Sense of 'loss' after a big storm, it's like post-partum depression in some ways. Interesting... This event had lots of ramp up time resulting in a fever pitch. What next? If say ... we were staring down the barrel of a mode shift toward interminable warmth, that would almost make it worst to have had this event at all. ...It appears we go from this into an interesting pattern, one which may actually contain a target too ... We'll see - preliminary is D9/negotiable

I've seen 3-5" down with the orb of the sun dim visible, aggregates transiting in front of it, yet 1/2 mi vis on the ground ... Those are neat clippers when they roll down through a deep blue arctic air mass.