Typhoon Tip

20th - 25th ... preferably 23 and 24

Certainly is colder on the NAM FOUS grid over ALB and Logan by a couple C's in the 900mb level... Not sure how it relates to the appeal in the graphics, but ... Again, I've been mentioning the NAM's propensity to collapse SE, when bringing events from outside the 48 ... 36 hour, to closer intervals. We'll see where it goes...

Ha ha, right ... It is flying in the face of a lot of climate conventions. That said, I do think the ridge in the west is in fact slightly farther west than ideal - that is by no means intended as the silver bullet reason for these warm solutions. Nor the general mise en science of this being more major pain in the ass, than a major storm... But, I get what Will/others are suggesting re the NAM's apparent 'talent' at seeing mid level warm intrusion events there... What I have a "teensy" problem with still, is that the NAM also has a NW bias over eastern N/A, with N turning amplitude. It's in the mid levels where that is notable, with vort trajectories tending to be first in line showing up over the N-W arc of plausible solutions. This strikes me as "maybe" some of that. I mean it's inCREdibly tedious to consider this, but... 2 degrees of longitude where ever the wind max(es) cross 40 N, means the difference between 4" ... 2" ...8"... Plus, whether cold stays anchored enough to lift wind concerns... jeez - lot riding on that. We still have 48 hours, when/where small corrections of that nature can fit. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen a warm 60 hour FOUS grid end up colder <36 hours out... It's not anything anyone should hang their hat on to 'save the day' ... but you know. There's obviously an investment in the desire arc of those contributing to this social media platform, to save what can be saved ...all the way down to moral victories if need be. LOL. When we don't have a blocking high, it all comes down to mid level tracks, and the NAM has a history of being NW.

So NAM is Buffalo and he Euro is the Patriots ... in head to head Divisional round playoff game this weekend. Heh Finding it interesting that the NAM's the consensus Vegas pick over any model that exists, for predicting synoptic scaled events - oh how times have changed...

Not really much to add here ... Still just sort of taken by the oddity of this thing. It's doing a few things actually, that fly in the face of a lot of different climate convention. At this point, it is what it is I suppose.

From what I’m seeing the NAM’s wind max at 500mb comes north slightly east of previous runs, but the surface ends up west of those fixes. This high coming in tomorrow is absolutely useless, and odd… it just literally gets out of the way and placates this thing moving up in that weird anti-climate fashion

NAM is likely exercising its immutable rights to be too far NW at 60 hrs Adding insult to injury. It’s west of everything.

Just bothered to look at the 18z GFS sfc evolution... We're not getting much substantive analysis over these disseminations any longerProbably event fatigue as set in. I know I'm hand tossing and done .. But, I can say I doubt this run can happen in reality. It's not going to start commiting to new low in the outer Bite region SSE of L.I., even hinting at closing an isobar, then suddenly ... give up and end up with a 975 mb low N of ALB 4 to 6 hours later. It's more likely to commit less to that new center entirely, or, commit more - but that hopscotch act is less likely.

I like ( ish ...) the 23th-25th, myself

... I was just noticing something interesting...this quasi closing S/W in the deep south, responsible for this event, may never see the Atlantic skies. It rolls up into eastern Canada in most guidance, bi-passing phase entirely ...to where it just opens up and loses identity, decaying into the back ground isohypsic flow. Gone... It's comes into existance as a phase over ~ Kansas, does a parabolic p.o.s. motion, gone. Usually these things trundle on to contribute/evolve into new events down stream. Eerily doing this for one aspect, getting a rain against all cold odds... That's a neat trick LOL

Here's the 18z NAM's 24 hr 2-M temp layout... just so this makes more sense as a rain maker

Heh.... maybe - nah, I think folks should count on triple point scooting out SE Mass, with this going over to 34 F rain after 2-6" of snow, less SE, more NW... but since N of said feature, the wind don't mix down. Basically, low redemption event. Any snow at all is probably saving it, otherwise, Phin's right - 'hideous' proportion is probably most apropos

Isn't that a song lyric from Cats? "The rum pum tiger is a hideous beast"

Umm ?

Since we're taking the entire shaft on this thing... do we have to have the wind chill advisory/warning and high temp of 10 tomorrow, too ? This whole thing - echoing Will's sentiment from earlier ... - really is setting the table the best that can possible be signed, just maximize the scale and degree of a failing climate. Maybe this is one of those little oddities that is easy to dismiss as flukey, but is in fact a tendency in present climate/moving forward. 40, 10, 40-rain, spanning 36 hours. amazing really ..

It does though...I've seen it. I lived in Rockport Ma in my history, through a winter. ...unmentionably distant history.. I recall a specific once occurrence of parachutes falling heavily upon the still harbor water - really still. They were making individual impact rings as though they were rain drops. But they weren't melting right away. The were visibly conserving as small slush blobs. By latter Jan and Feb, the ocean water in the coves and harbors of the N. Shore can be pretty much life halting, death cold. 32 F water tucked in, unfrozen because see water needs to be 26. So aggregate bombs kissing the surfaces at big enough that they probably form a dilution interface between their cryo-cores and the brine water, that doesn't penetrate. Slush floats... In fact, if it snows hard enough in that marginal state, I've seen the harbor turn gray.

Zactly! I mean ... I think back to that whopper < 12 hour temperature recovery event back in 1994. It was late January ( you're better with dates than me ...). That was also a plain to see we were going to be porked by WAA fisting up the coast. I was still a fledgling Met back in those days, and so I was really in a frame of mind where, " ...I gotta see this to believe it..." Lack of experience, combined with the 9 F at 8am on the Wx Lab monitor, with blue tinted dawn and flurries under the street lamps along the walk over, didn't lend to believing. But, there was no high pressure N... In fact, it was even less so than this one is presently modeled to have. The baroclinic wall/associated cyclone approached from the W, not the S like this one will. That event back then really was a completely unabated rush on the cold QB, and the QB was definitely going to unavoidably take a sack. By noon, 9 had become 22. Freezing rain kicked in, which only accelerated the heat retreat - because once we started accreting ... phase change latency kicked in and sent the temp pretty quickly toward freezing. By 3 is 32 ... 32.01 as Ray muses from time to time. The sky had changed texture. By 4, it was strato-streets visibly moving N with extreme rapidity... 35. The cafeteria below Smith Hall opened for dinner at 5:30. I was sitting there eating, and the bushes immediately outside the window were suddenly whipping around. By then I knew this was the warm boundary... At some point between 4:30 and 5:30 ( I had stopped paying attention out of resentment, ha) it came through and leaned tree tops over. When I stepped out shortly after 6, the night setting was sounds of turbines pushing 60 air up and over snow banks, that were sending Kelvin Hemholtz steam plumes rollin' down wind.. The air smelled like summer. I think it was Friday... and the campus came to life. Students spilled out of dorms because ... I guess going from 9 to 62 musta been tee-shirt weather for lacking acclimation. Sparing furthering misery of that anecdote, ...last year's Grinch storm? Same... Huge snow pack. Pretty chilly ( though not 9 ) the day before... Completely naked and no defense to a full latitude trough moving E across the country. This is not like those.

Time sensy but check out the arctic boundary as it slinks through IN-OH-PA https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Ohio-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Fantastic elaboration that hones the oddity of what's portrayed in the models. I've been sharing in this sentiment. I also am of the ilk that seldom really gets personally 'moved' by failures/successes, either. But being human ( LOL ) it does admittedly feel unsettling when there are really both intuition, and data, supplying veracious counter- reasons that question the consensus - yet, the consensus persists. Other than what I just annotated last hour, re the relay and final piece to this dog and pony show set to relay off the Pacific tomorrow, I'm out of a suggestions - if this doesn't modulate when that happens... the less than sensible, less than a-priori for matter, solution probably prevails I guess.

I agree with you here pretty much entirely re cold handling - yup. But I am intrigued by that bold statement. I'm not sure I find that to be true so much anymore - in fact, rather the opposite. I've been trying elucidate/bring that to awareness, that we have been consummately correcting mid range events more tepid in character by the time they get to short terms; something I've noticed since the last great near term sudden correction back in 2010 as I outlined. I'm not sure if NCEP is doing this... Or if it is just an artifact of fast flows, and the models correcting for that they have to introduce neg interference ...etc... Both facets could also be true -

So ... the obvious take-away from that statement is that if this behaves as currently modeled, it has essentially never been observed Now that's an interesting system. For the general reader: Doesn't do the winter/snow enthusiasts much good to say that; there's less virtuosity there. However, for the purer Meteorologist/scientist's perspective, this would-be event becomes a truly historic event - worthy of study, and amazement ... Funny how that works... I agree with the essence of 'lock and loading' as the current interpretation. It's hard not to give into that as the objectively aware. At some point, we have to accept that we live in a techno-era when weather-related modeling doesn't offer as many corrections at < 90 or so hours; in fact, I'd even go so far as to say "drastic" corrections really are a thing of the past, too rare to really 'realistically hope.' ...relative to what one wants, of course. There are those that don't want a snow storm - but who cares about them, right? LOL. They scurry and hide amongst us, in the crevasses of the forum landscape, like the early rodent like mammals of the HUGELY lopsided competing Jurassic's apex reign of predators. Ha. Anyway, the last I can recall a short duration modulation ... whence hope seemed to will a consensus desire... I have to go back to the 2010 "Boxing Day Storm." That was 12 years ago. If anyone knows of any since, ...yeah, I'm not saying there haven't been others. But to be fair, we mean all but completely abandoned by machine and man interpretation that re-materialize @ < than 48 hours. I see couple of "minor" reasons for hope in this. But I want to emphasize minor. 1 .. The last piece to the puzzle technically still has not been relayed off the Pacific. 2 .. As we are all aware... our near miss ocean storm will soon be teaming up with arriving arctic-polar high, and really advect some nasty cold during the 24 ... 36 hours preceding the event - beginning in earnest tonight. Which as an aside, later this eve and overnight, that looks like an open sky lapse rate momentum sharing opportunity to me. Those 30 kts sustained mid BL CAA vectors on the NAM easily come down to tree tops in gust. ...Anyway, that won't help us very much IF ... the models are correct with the the large synoptic circumstance of the surface high at 54-60 hours ... suddenly unanchoring and slipping E. I have seen 9 F at dawn become, soar to 62 F in just 12 hours ( Late Jan 1994) - it can happen! However, there is a slim room for the +PP departure to be less problematic for cold. If the third piece of the puzzle comes in and is weaker... the southern stream won't get drawn as far N, quite as prodigiously as the models currently have. Thus, the track of the everything, ...mid and below, ends up SE as a later adjustment. 2 .. there is yet another fleeting possibility... Suppose it comes in stronger yet. The S/W ridging you see rippling out ahead of it across southern Canada ( left to right above ), would likely evolve stronger... Consequentially ...also as later adjustment, the the high pressure ( 54-60 or so hours) would transiently holds on longer as this mess comes N. That could have an interesting counter-effect of creating damming/'barrier' jet activity, and .. .heh, more of a moral victor than anything else because that slam the warm sector intrusion shut.

Wait … using the NAM at 72+ hrs seeming kinda risky … particularly considering it tends to carry in with NW bias at that range. Course it helps your case I suppose that the Euro isn’t altogether much different … I almost wonder if the fact that these NAM solutions more than less agree with euro (or vice versa) should be a red flag. If one has to be a pessimist about the storms and they’re going to have to have admit that the NAM is spot on ballz accurate at 84 hours lol

Too bad George001 wasn’t a type-A personality with an adversarial narcissistic sensitivity disorder … then reading that. - popcorn and coke awesome

Depends which model one considers the most … Someone needs to ping George. This becoming a very serious situation with this latest

I like how whatever model shows the most Debbie Downer abysmal sore butt solution gets apparently full proxy over the tone and tenor of spirit in this online paragon of functionality ..