Typhoon Tip

What's complicating is you running out to 260+ hours to tell us the 06z was better for the system around Jan 30 that we've been discussing. I guess you turned the page on us LOL

How's that a comparison between 18, 00z and 06z ? That's not telling us anything - or what am I looking at

Thing is ...I looked over the 06z and it didn't look good to me - can you demo that? The 18z yesterday was intriguing,...00z less so, and the 06z even less - that's what I saw. I'm a little confused

I'm kinda in Pope's camp on that Tues aspect... I don't speak to snow totals per se, but I mean I see where he's coming from. And he's right about the operational GFS, a model that ranges between N/stream bias to just having an attitude of disrespecting S/stream features in general. Lol Seriously, even if the S/stream S/W is conserved, "IF" the N/stream is nuanced-less compressing at the time that thing zips up out of the TV toward S of New England, than a GGEM solution certainly enters the discussion. We should note that the Clipper aspect, did have - originally when we began tracking it ... - question related to how it may or not interact with the southern stream.. It appears we're heading toward a result where the clipper actually outruns and doesn't interfere in either way, and the S/stream may just as well work on us using it's own devices. It's a real real needle threader -one requiring the GFS not be N/stream mash happy, so we'll see.

For the record ...I don't believe we were assessing much more than that? - originally, I wasn't. It was a clipper being watched as the next credible "anything" really.

This appears to me to be a toned down version of the Bible bomb we saw on the 12z run yesterday ... It really takes a similar track, just not as deep, the mechanics perhaps 70% of what yesterday's buzz saw was working with. And as Will or whomever that was pointed out about the U/A, it's largeness, then expanding as it comes N, we sort of trade yesterday's intensity for mass and still ends up with a major impact... Again, this to me is a real event out there... probably the next thread-able eventually but now isn't it

Haven’t loaded em on my phone. Had to chauffeur sister to radiology her cancer stuff and those graphics’ URL I know of don’t bootstrap/weren’t designed for this interface so was gonna wait for the 12s later in the day.

3-cycle trend of the GEFs reversed overnight … but EPS goes the other way - a little hm Numerical telecon (GEFs) have split with 1/3 of the members newly offering conceptual space for eastern amplitude. The previous renditions were not. So that method moved ‘a little’ in amp direction despite the graphical illustration … Plus with the EPS … it could all just be typical mind game where detection leads to finding least excuse to conceal —> perhaps come back. Time will tell. I was thinking to just let the 30th ride but these are significant hints that something’s there.

ICON about to go boom at the end of this run

Make what up - what are we looking at?

CC

This is an impressive signal growth here... There's some exotically deep members, but the main take away is that is a clear coherent signal at this point. The spread has increased across multiple consecutive runs. The 12z EPS did trend a little ... but I haven't seen the 18 -

Let's see if we can get an exotically early green up that blows through tree growth budget by mid July and sends full yellow color through the canopies by mid August... Now that would be a strange first for the CC evidence.

We have been tho ..heh, some of us. Will...Ray myself. It's on the table. The 18z GEFs actually has a modest signal trend that's better than 12z.

Heh.. not in contrary to that sentiment at all, but I think these 'bizarre nuances' are really not so bizarre/abnormal to a fast, speed saturated hemisphere. It's like splintering and shearing wave mechanics into 'pearling' in that sense... It's hard for any fluid medium to consolidate bigger organized systems in fast flows. There's a larger number smaller perturbations that aggregate the same torque budget. It just that once that wave number ( S/W count ) gets to large, this interference stuff becomes the norm.

Ray and I were discussing this and how the 'typical la nina + E QBO' tends to finish strong, but I had/have reservations because: those climate signals were prior to hell breaking loose on Earth, to put it wildly romantic LOL. Winters have sported eerily hot spells in February's and March's... regardless of ENSO state, recurrent leitmotifs now some 7 years and counting. Perhaps lost in the din because yeah...there's been big snow storms dappled there too, but .. these runs on 80 in Feb are getting a bit disconcertingly connected to the elephant in the room ( imho - )... I've been wondering if apparent disconnect that's increasingly decoupling the ENSO with the circulation mode, might bring an early end one of these times in a bit more of a historic fashion. If we can tap 75 like we did those years... we can definitely do it in that Weekly - assuming a modicum of verification. Time will tell... Also waiting on a correlated SSW ... should that finally take place that may not be yet absorbing into the Weeklies'

Seeing as the GEFs goosed it by a third, wouldn't surprise me. GEPs trended pretty significantly actually ..interesting

Never snowed here today... I'm frankly less optimistic about Tuesday - for the record, I wrote about it yesterday as a "low probability for positive return," and meant it. But did bother to go into some analytic ways in which it could evolve more just for shits and giggles. God this winter is a f'n bore, man - But I'm not so hot on that one ( not that anyone asked ) at this point, because what fleeting chances I gave for improvement, did not materialize on this 12z suite of model runs. The wave mechanics started nosing into the denser materialized sounding/initialization on the 12z and it's still a blown open ravioli mess coming through here. More momentum is still in process of coming in, though ...so it may .. probably not I dunno.

What ? ..uh, we're just talkin' here.

I'm about as confident in the Euro's over all complexion of that range of time as I am in the GFS succeeding in halting society for a yard or more. The Euro's puzzlingly bad performance at 96 hour lead wrt to the weekend "ghost" ...not sure what's up with that but it elevated a suggestion ongoing performance, to something more obviously peculiar going on with that model. I still saw it operate better than the other guidance in a few different facets this winter, so..it's probably endemic to the pattern we are in ... and/or perhaps just that one weird positive trough handling - I dunno. But my point is, we can't ( obviously and duh - ) bank on a climate ceiling depiction at D9 in one hand, while in the other, the Euro's on probation for whatever and whenever it does beyond D3 at this time. I would conclude - thusly - that this is mere noise ... if it were not for the fact that ~ 1/3 to 2/5ths of the GEF individual members I reviewed, carry important Nor'easter up the EC D8-11 - which is a large enough improvement from the 00z cycle to nod to the notion there may be something there. What that is "up in the egregious pun air"

Yup...that's exactly what happened... that wave pushed through the west and negatively interfered with the eastern seaboard.

We'll see where the D8 Euro goes with that pretty 'fish hook' amplitude approaching. There's too much trough pushing new through the W though and could be an unwelcome guest.

That whole model's a flag - as in a white one waving in surrender

Word! yeah... 'magine a storm that blips a down spike across global economic graphs -

Rival? heh... nah, wins is the word. 2013 was a huge storm for a vastly smaller area... This 12z GFS? It is multi-regionally historic/crippling, in the same event. It's also just ISE-wise in another category ... as is coherently suggestive in review: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20130208.html But, that is by no means an attempt to abase the power and majesty of 2013 and hurt anyone's feelings that associates that event spiritually significant to the existence of their soul, either... Just objectively comparing history with this GFS run - which is equally as excruciatingly nerdy a thing to do as the storm in question... hahaha