Typhoon Tip

Except me ... heh.. I mentioned the "D8-12" near the end of the blizzard as the next interesting period ( for me...). I did not anticipate ( honestly ..) this aspect in the foreground - though in my defense...I was not looking for it's type; that being non- large synoptic rooted, such as the last event was..etc. This nearing system is an interesting arctic kiss against modest warm anomaly in both non-hydrostatic circulation manifold in the S, but one with modest warm hydrostatic heights - which is why there is unusual QPF likely to verify across a gargantuan swath of CONUS real-estate. "Hadley ... I want you to meet Arctic - I think y'all 'ill hit it off" Anyway, I "sorta" still like the D5 -10 range ( as it's gotten closer..), because the flow is showing a tendency ( still ) to bulge the +PNA ridge toward the Rockies. WHILE, and this is important ...the flow subtended E across the mid latitudes of the continent appears to "relax" gradient some. This offers room for amplitude/ .. less overall large --> shorter scale negative interference ( which is really what speeding flow/compression really represents). The only problem is ... we are not getting delivered any kind of stronger Pac wave mechanics into that described arena, such that anything meaningful can spawn. So, it's like a scaffolding for building that never gets filled in. This happened a year ago in January - the flow relaxed and there wasn't much to take advantage of it. It just sort of came and went - maybe you remember that. I dunno. Point is ... it happens. I think if a S/W does get introduced, it may take advantage - but I've been in wait. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- By the way, as as separate aspect... Folks are mentioning the MJO. I'd be careful using that for this first two weeks of February, as NCEP is being pretty clear that there are local time scale Rossby wave(s) activity that is in wave-space conflict ... causing suppression of the wave's emergence through the Marine continent. It may change heading into week two, but by then, it's forcing ( if it can ...) time lags into week 3. Yikes.. In other words, it may not work to depend much on any MJO feedbacks. Also, I recall mentioning in my own 'tepid takes' wrt to the seasonal outlook game earlier this last autumn, that I thought the La Nina and the atmosphere may uncouple as the season progressed ( won't go into reasons why, as they piss off Ray LOL... ).. No but that is being observed now, as the low level westerlies are currently disonnected from the La Nina circulation model. • The MJO remains weak, with both the RMM-based and CPC velocity potential based indices reflecting low amplitude and no eastward progression. • There are indications of an eastward propagating enhanced convective envelope now over the Indian Ocean, but a remarkably strong Rossby wave is destructively interfering with this signal. • Anomalous lower-level westerlies over the east-central Pacific reflect a continued disruption of the La Niña background state.

Actually I wanted to see the wind ... which he's right the lower panel had that. I was thinking their might be more N component over Maine but it's interesting light and E.

Uh sorry - helps to scroll huh lol

Hey JC' ... do you have the top panel at the 850 mb by any chance ( same prodcut source ? )

Separate 'operational' question... At what point ( also ) do we begin to justly questioning the Euro due to performance? The impetus for 'needing to ask' is because it's spent 20 years as the MVP model - it's kind of institutional. The last 2 of which ...particularly, 1 years, have begun to shake the foundation ( maybe?). Or, the other model skills have elevated and are competitive. So there may be some relativity to it.. Plus, the last system and this one have 0 comparative synoptic root causality ... other than the fact that they both are occurring in Terran atmosphere. Heh. I mean ... should the old adage of 'past performance doesn't justify present response' apply? I think it does though in some sense. If a model is getting increasingly untrustworthy ... you'd better still modulate that into one's reasoning... Duh. The other aspect is the verification scoring method - I don't know... Is that done as a globally integrated qualitative thing...? Or is x-y-z model also examined in quadrature. Like, maybe the Euro is so flawless out over the open expanse of the Saharan African continent, that it soars its average ( sarcasm...), but just between ORD-BOS and the Del Marva, it has a weird weakness that it doesn't carry on with anywhere else on the planet. Man, the way I remember the last storm: the Euro had no clue for the first 4 days of the thing.. Then, suddenly, at D5 or 6 ( so I guess it gets a pass?) it sees it hugely and slams the EC with a history blah blah blah... Then, it insists that way for 3 days... while the GFS never was that emphatic. It had weaker, stress coherence low organization... with problems extending impacts N-W ... sometimes even missing altogether, which has its own concern ... But in the end, the Euro demonstrated clear, over all poorer performamce consistency, and ultimately .. wrongness - sorry it just did. The GFS was not perfect, but it scored better in my anecdotal recall -

I think you mentioned that may happen yesterday or the day before... if memory serves - something like, 'the game is not over though, if the GFS comes back tomorrow, even though it is winning now the result will shift more 50/50' LOL forgive me if I don't present a photographic memory but it was very close to that. Anyway, we might be seeing that... But, I also agree with Ryan's modulating in the meso tact, but would also add that some that has to be now-casted as even these higher resolution tools might not see 'tuck' jets. ( clearing I'm obsessing over this latter factor, I know heh)

Well all else aside ... ( was trying to be multi-faceted in the missive heh) ... that bold, right there, is precisely agreed and why it is 'annoying'. I don't get it... As far as the NAM ...yeah, that's why I mentioned at the end about it tending to a NW bias with fronts and cyclone tracking at range beyond 48 hours. I did say the exact same thing ( too ) that if the the NAM were to correct for that coming in closer range, it would accelerate - yup ... so there we go. I guess I feel this situation has a shot at lower end warning ice, but I feel the gradient being expressed over very short distances, while pushing S in time, will probably limit ice to upper advisory, and the snow to upper advisory, but neither actually in warning? ...if you get my meaning... Sometimes you get a kitchen sink event that forces the Warning hand from multi-variate impact spectrum... sumpin like that. I think it would be a lot easier of you lived N of ALB to PWM ...as that region may straight up no-contendo snow

The recent NAM runs hint though. TT's rendition of the 2-meter temperature, the model's taking until 12 Z to get the 0C isotherms to a rough Springfield-Nashua line, and 18Z to get it to south of the Boston-Hartford/Willimantic. Which I find a tad annoying. It's a high resolution hydrostratic model - which means ( in theory) it is integrating theta-e into the column. It should 'detect' the weight of the air, when the fresh low DPs flood east of the Whites...setting off the 'tuck' intrusion by the pressure rises in east of the Whites/CNE -->coast. It's failing to induce the ducting ('burrier') jet, so no SW tuck once the pressures rises in earnest from BGR-PSM. That fails both convention and climate to me. I mean... climate -haha. It's like, "rules: they're meant to be broken," and so too "behavior climatology" doesn't mean aspects will obey. But this is true for all models... The Euro could nail that frontal position, but blow it on these particulars. I think it is possible enough that the E end of Mohawk Trail in Massachusetts... somewhere E of North Adams and probably Orange east, might see the 0C isotherm a correct S of present synoptic scale detection. But earlier on not just sagging but growing toward the S-SW perhaps 4 to 6 hours sooner. I hate to say but the ICON ( oh Jesus-) looks more indicative.. hell, it even has the CAD nose +delta over central and NE Massachusetts prior to the other guidance, and that really fits convention and climate when considering all. At larger synopsis ... the NAM also tends to NW biases beyond 48 hours. It is possible the mean frontal position corrects SE as we get closer in, in which case 'IF' the above aspects are now-cast verifying, they may also get accelerated by that, too.

I like the NAM’s -d(t) of 14C at Logan between hrs 54 and 60. In F, 49 —> 28 in that six hrs. Strongly hints what’s goin on in the interior W-N. I mean if Logan goes from WSW to NNE and dramatically paralyzes the sfc in sub 0C there’s most likely a 925mb ageostrophic jet ducting SW east of the Whites and it WILL destroy guidance if that sets up. NAM beyond 48 hrs notwithstanding …

I think we need to adopt a TMI emoji

has been reminding me of the Jan 1994 event yup. Not saying that's an analog - I just think the result could be similar.

I'm surprised this system is bullied along so robustly in these guidance to begin with .. It's a flat wave - yeah we know .. But, it's also being pulled up through a larger synoptic confluence at mid/U/A levels. The OV is the 'rejoining' axis of the southern stream with the northern stream. Yet this just has enough identity left after the fact ... (GFS and company) to get interesting after the fact. I've been on the fence with that. 1 .. models tend to see the mid range through a magnifying glass. Scoping out middling events as majors, minors and middling ...etc, has been a leitmotif of the global numerical models - particularly the GFS. This seemed to be a good candidate for that sort of gradual attenuation as the run cycles went by. Doesn't seem to be happening, however. Interesting... 2 .. maybe that's what the Euro's been after .. but there are two issues going on with that model for me. One, it thinks this is attenuating, but two, it is not handling the N stream/confluence and the particulars of the higher pressure up N the same way. Not sure why... just what the model behaviors been doing. Obviously, that is hugely instrumental in what ptype occurs where. 3 .. one aspect I like for QPF is that there is a staggered formation in the jet fields, where the 850 mb rides NE up and over the frontal interface, and underneath a 700 mb exit region from E NYS over SNE. Then, above that there is the 500 mb, a similar right exit region accelerating the field E, N of the 700 mb axis.. Finally, at 300 mb, there is whopper 150 to 175 kt right entrance/exit region jet blasting from ORD -CAR.. Basically that looks like this can produce a significant frontogenic banding/slantwise instability, and may be related to how the "robust" look I mentioned above is occurring. It's sort of an over-achiever because of these jet couplets.

There is no “reason” nor “rationale” “in the post below” ! One cannot believes an aspect to be true merely because they imagine and or want it’s veracity. When it’s concretely determined to be false … to persist in doing so is at a minimum determination IR-rational. Moreover it becomes an indictment of intelligence when one cannot connect with that reality Fine, then. Consider yourself humored along hence forth - with all the due respects and salutations commensurate to that social rank and recognition .. atta boy!

I mean you can look up the model verification scores for free - the NAVGEM is an UN -GOOD model... It's not designed for this type of land-based meteorology. It is used by the NAVY for NAVY purposes in the high seas and wave-guide. It's not only an UN -GOOD ( fact! ) model, it is also not even being used for the right reason when you attempt to employ it's solutions and then attempt to comparing. Jesus Christ. stop it. Unless you're mentally challenged and don't understand these turns of phrases, that's another story. If that's what's going one, we'll pat your head and tell ya your doing a great job -

18z GFS substantial correction south. actually ... this is a substantial ice storm threat for lower Missouri/southern IL up through the west OV as near as 96 hours ... speed things up in fast hemisphere friends... But, the arm of high pressure presses through Ontario and sorry,... long years of experience, that ends up with a boundary south of here. That's getting interesting... 120 hours we have overrunning pellet and cold rain streaking across the southern tier of NY into S VT and by later that evening we'll see what the entails here but I do NOT buy a polar boundary over recent snow pack, at climo cold time of year barely in the rear view mirror ...just hangin around southern NH ...no way! Not when pressure is rising through the mid range over/N of Montreal .. not happening Prolly should point out ...this next coverage is an entirely different type of system than this one. Not even the same synoptic ball park.

Yup just saw it on COD composite - nasty band man. Man snow as we say!

So I just got back from the gym ... Holy hell!! Took almost 20 min to got 1.5 mi. Snow stepped up, while there, worst of the whole storm ( Ayer ).. We got est 3" in just a little over an hr, and it still snowing hard. I thought by rad trends and out of doors it was tapering off. Jesus Christ. 1/10th of mi vis stuff. Est now I got close to 10 or 11" out of this

Yeah I guess I looked at the coarser product at PSU e-wall... heh... Looked like it suppressed the shit outta that.. which it did, but I guess it slipped a pass up the backside ..what was that an ANA?

Yup ...jives with my "estimate" too ( Ayer )

Uh...really. What are your sources? That doesn't jive with this:

Well there you go ... Euro makes a step in the D8-11 direction. Can't run until you take a your first steps

Yup ... transition event. Tries to get mild but not impressed with the front side of the front's region for now. Then said front slips past - noooormally, that will be ahead of guidance when it comes to these weight polar high transits through SE Canada ..wedging under. Particularly, that kind set up will come SW down from Maine as coastal jet when the +PP lobes around the White's. Anyway, the cold air deepens and isn't going the other way... If there is a overrunning during cold air's gradual deepening, we'll go through some ptype axis ...

actually .. it's so suppressed it almost doesn't exist. The frontal passage has sped up in time over the recent days' worth of runs ..but whether there is any return flow right away that runs over it and creates something mixy and what not was also a newness to the Fri/Thur time frame. This Euro run doesn't so much establish enough of that and just keeps the whole thing as a cold front with a wave S. but christ... who knows. I think we need watch the D 8-11 range

It's an interesting system. It's what I like to call a maintenance event - it helps keep it cold but it isn't rooted in a pattern change that is going into cold(exit) from a milder(colder) regime. I don't know what that means - I have engagement fatigue and can't think straight. I'm just saying it sneaky in between the larger synoptic indicators. Tell you what..I'm gonna go look at the individual members of ens'

Ah yes ... it's always nicer to post-mortem our way out of an under-achiever ( relative to IMBY's of course - ), into another assurance for d-drip week, to keep us from crashing too hard. Haha... it's funny but true. I remember we use to talk about this up in the weather lab at UML back in college, how there's like a post-partum depression kinda of psycho babble after storms end. I mean you're in after glow but ... by the third day, that wears off and if you are looking at an anathemic pattern, that can be a bit of a withdraw likeness. But this GGEM solution just converted a thaw into an cold rain --> ice/mix --> snow ordeal ... Big too actually. You know regardless of whether that happens or not for IMBYs, where that does take place, that may last a full 24 hours to transition through that.