Typhoon Tip

1980s

Sure is! It's basically impeccable in that regard, +1 I mean we've seen damn close to impeccable placements in the past. They're like.. 92, 95th %tile and so forth. But this? It's 99 or for lack of better phrasing, it's over the threshold where it really matters. We could probably dink that in situ, and still come up way over climo for coastal snows. If that were not enough the "+1" addition is that in those other cases, they were not 966 mb lows! wtf ...That absolutely astounding. I was just looking at that relays of the 500 mb with the 300 mb, and if anything, the QPF may be too skimpy out near Orange Ma to Brian axis.. I think the hidden best call about this whole week's worth of guidance ob surfing, is that this has so much upside potential. These runs occasionally dip into the well - we get a 18" of snow, that is for all intents and purposes, still "blizzarding" at the end of the run. I don't see much evidence in this NAM solution that this thing is tapering off right away after that...Looking aloft, that's going to collocate and take propably another 6 to 9 hours end that. That's probably good for another 8"... I dunno...

That's a salient observation, no argument! Yeah I am a big fan of those 'total scaffold' orientations ( which can also be moving in time to offer some delicious headaches that way too...), for determining what I call 'correction vectoring' - all else being equal, if the vector is unaccounted for as remainder, ...future guidance tends to move in that direction.

Ha, it might just save my wilting attitude toward this - I cried about needing 12zs to get with the program and see? That all it takes. LOL But it is the NAM... oy. I tell ya what though, to me, I almost wonder if the NAM's NW bias stuff is maybe transcended ( for lack of better word) by the total power of this thing. I mean, that 500 mb evolution ( either side of 66 hours ) seems that regardless of the former tendency this thing would have to really end up like that either way - it's just overwhelming matters in that sense.

It's funny how that works when you get the pivoting band phenomenon. The storm's ballast comes in two passes: going west...coming back est. Mighty squalls within may last 2-3 hrs. It may snow 1-3"/hr ... maybe even 2-4". But in between, turbine wind gust pushing blowing snow mixes S- merely keeps the mystique going ... but the accumulation can really slack off outside the band, even though the air still looks milky out of window. But, the real VIP storms of lore, they don't do that as as much? They seem to have more like moderate footprints, with embedded S++ band(s) that amorphously nest with less obvious gradation. Plenty of examples of those... I think back to Jan 2005, and the Boxing Day storm in 2010 as a couple of examples, where Middlesex Co ended up "sorta" screwed. The storm set up bands west and east, and then the western came through and gave us 4-6", but because it hung around the pivot west of us for twice as long, they were able to clock 16" out that way. Meanwhile, the SE was cashing in on both a band and CF superposition stuff... Between those regions, we ended up with a solid storm, but it was JV compared. 2005 was also g-wave related but ..that's a whole' nother complexity ha!

Getting caught up. I'm still back here on pg 146. Not a bad analysis on your part, but re the bold statement above: I agree, that is crucial leading parametric as this approaches the EC en masse. But, that could be enhanced(reduced) based upon the S/stream contribution as it fuses with the descending N/stream goodies. Euro has more GFS has less Now that may be so that the model 'notoriously' do the less? However, One aspect that comes to mind for me ( or back to mind and was forgotten - ), is this propensity in most guidance now spanning years, to consummately correct systems from the intensity side of the spectrum toward less, when relaying mid range handling toward inner times. So, that seems to be a competing concept to that bold statement. And admittedly ... it is anecdotal, but it's a frustratingly glaring persistent tendency/ is a repeating observation for me. This thing really cannot afford to get weaker, or it will collapse to those means that are too at sea at this point. It's an scenario where, as we get closer, it seem the only way to get this storm is to have the handful of members that are very intense and west, win. I noticed the Euro shaved 6 mb off all positions, some depth in the 500 mb deepest ... but no one mentioned that, because the snow QPF seems to be a distraction? But, this could be a beginning of it going E. I've seen it do this before, where it offers a model cycle where it's "attitude" gets torpid first, then it reshuffles. If more s/w ridge is rolling out ahead, it tends to cap early convection ferocity ahead of the q-v forcing ... The impetus being, if that flares off hugely right away, and the flow is flattish leaving the coast, it will rip NE out E of the 70 W longitude and stress the baroclinic field... limiting/robbing cyclogenesis back closer to said trough forcing. That is what the GFS operational has been designing. Folks ( not you ..) need to realize, a deeper, robuster cyclogen closer to the actual synoptic forcing, not relying on the volatile air and simpler triggers first ..., has physical height falls associated. That action feeds back constructively on the total manifold of the system. That's what the Euro's been suggesting.. .but, it has also been shaving 4-6 mb off the intensity since that mega run of 24/36 hours ago. Which is a sign that it is slipping some of that efficiency - at some point... it might break. Just trying to be fair and objective.

I don't know what's been said over the last 15 pages overnight but for storm enthusiasm, that was not encouraging overnight for me. Short leash now ... if the 12z pulls this crap again, this goes east. We're 3.5 days out now ... This isn't 1996. Models are quite less likely to be wrong enough -

I get the impression that we only have a consensus on a significant to major storm but we don’t have a consensus on position… That’s about it good night

Those are important differences between those two guidance at 90 hours quite significant actually in terms of how they’re going to drive the surface. The CMC closes the 500mb sfc off at around 90 hours overlapping Long Island… GFS’s is still wide open at that point

Yes… Well aware. Unfortunately those “subtle” variances are utterly crucial and make for huge difference with a storm that has this kind of power. It doesn’t appear to be a proportional relationship either, just looking at this from orbit. If the GFS is 10% inefficient we seem to get really big difference in the northwest position blah blah feedback physical processes

Imho these GFS runs over the last two days through this one tonight at 0Z…are clearly inconsistently consuming the southern stream, and it’s bearing upon what happens downstream off the eastern seaboard I don’t think I can look at this any other way from a meteorological perspective.

Very poor continuity with southern contribution. Can’t even really see any kind of trend with that aspect. also seeing some issues with N stream too, tho those are more subtle. It’s trying to kick.

Nah … there’s no way this is a rainer

Historic

I haven’t been paying attention to that specifically. In this situation I don’t have a lot of faith in the mid. I think there’s probably a data sampling issue going on and those intervals are going to be suspect first

It senses to me as thought entire product systemically is dropping/..or perhaps 'missing' some 20% of the momentum of prior cycles - cross guidance too. It's just paltrier ... NCEP cited this notion about a strong S/W mechanical presence sending s/w ridging out ahead, to where it constructively interferes with the Atlantic L/W ridging... (Euro), and so ... ( and I agree with them ) missing 20% leads to an an early escape - it's interesting the oper. version performed as it did. It appears be western member now... Man.. this model has for days really been attempting least plausible reason it can to diminish the specter of this thing LOL... I guess NCEP's had it. They're flying reco I hear ? Pretty amazing... they must feel as we do that the larger scale hemisphere is anchoring this system, so it's "worth it" - I dunno.

It’s better overall from what I’m seeing but it suppressing you ur way. it’s inched west overall. Deeper QPF into SE zones down thugs way etc dont sweat it though. This model’s in mid trend … I’m suspecting 00z my be interesting.

This is not a “warm core” cyclogenesis or maintenance stages either, unless it can be specifically analyzed that way … etc “Warm seclusion” is a separate phenomenon that is not that uncommon with RI cyclones This is a baroclinic system; different thermodynamic engine to barotropic

Not literally the same thing. Different mechanisms giving an homaged appeal.

We were noticing that in the more amped solutions from two days ago … it’s like a mock PRE in front of a cane

I think what started the obsessing was that a post was made a while ago … I think during the lead up to the last event, where a correlation was advanced describing Miller Bs as being better snow producers … So of course naturally that means comfort seeking armpit sniffing frantically making sure it’s mor B than A …

Wait’ll the NAM gets the memo on this thing in nearer terms. You’ll be shoveling 45” off the charts to find the state lines …

Fifth … 1978 isn’t really good total meteorological analog ? when did that come up and why/how?

I would also predicted this is going to be a data overflow and information saturation to the point of almost apoplexy over the next ensuing days … We’re just gonna have to roll back from their desks lol

This ...really "maybe" entering unique historical value? I don't recall ever seeing a 950 to 960 mb low stall - if does so..- or even hesitate where the 'super blend' tracks. Granted the same conceptualized blend isn't that deep, but with the operational Euro recency, and now this violent trend by the GGEM... Not to mention the numerous EPS members just as drilled... About the only thing more arresting than that is the contemplation of this still having room to trend .... more. I mean if the former say... 958 mb is reached around 72W/40N, and behaviorally it stalls or slows.. I can't find a low that deep, that did that, there. And this could still become more. Really ?