Typhoon Tip

Yup just saw it on COD composite - nasty band man. Man snow as we say!

So I just got back from the gym ... Holy hell!! Took almost 20 min to got 1.5 mi. Snow stepped up, while there, worst of the whole storm ( Ayer ).. We got est 3" in just a little over an hr, and it still snowing hard. I thought by rad trends and out of doors it was tapering off. Jesus Christ. 1/10th of mi vis stuff. Est now I got close to 10 or 11" out of this

Yeah I guess I looked at the coarser product at PSU e-wall... heh... Looked like it suppressed the shit outta that.. which it did, but I guess it slipped a pass up the backside ..what was that an ANA?

Yup ...jives with my "estimate" too ( Ayer )

Uh...really. What are your sources? That doesn't jive with this:

Well there you go ... Euro makes a step in the D8-11 direction. Can't run until you take a your first steps

Yup ... transition event. Tries to get mild but not impressed with the front side of the front's region for now. Then said front slips past - noooormally, that will be ahead of guidance when it comes to these weight polar high transits through SE Canada ..wedging under. Particularly, that kind set up will come SW down from Maine as coastal jet when the +PP lobes around the White's. Anyway, the cold air deepens and isn't going the other way... If there is a overrunning during cold air's gradual deepening, we'll go through some ptype axis ...

actually .. it's so suppressed it almost doesn't exist. The frontal passage has sped up in time over the recent days' worth of runs ..but whether there is any return flow right away that runs over it and creates something mixy and what not was also a newness to the Fri/Thur time frame. This Euro run doesn't so much establish enough of that and just keeps the whole thing as a cold front with a wave S. but christ... who knows. I think we need watch the D 8-11 range

It's an interesting system. It's what I like to call a maintenance event - it helps keep it cold but it isn't rooted in a pattern change that is going into cold(exit) from a milder(colder) regime. I don't know what that means - I have engagement fatigue and can't think straight. I'm just saying it sneaky in between the larger synoptic indicators. Tell you what..I'm gonna go look at the individual members of ens'

Ah yes ... it's always nicer to post-mortem our way out of an under-achiever ( relative to IMBY's of course - ), into another assurance for d-drip week, to keep us from crashing too hard. Haha... it's funny but true. I remember we use to talk about this up in the weather lab at UML back in college, how there's like a post-partum depression kinda of psycho babble after storms end. I mean you're in after glow but ... by the third day, that wears off and if you are looking at an anathemic pattern, that can be a bit of a withdraw likeness. But this GGEM solution just converted a thaw into an cold rain --> ice/mix --> snow ordeal ... Big too actually. You know regardless of whether that happens or not for IMBYs, where that does take place, that may last a full 24 hours to transition through that.

Ha.. you know when I see this... . I cannot help but wonder if the individual expectations are a wee bit too high going into these storms. I mean, NCEP apparently doesn't have any reservations in calling this blizzard conditions ...wtf are we peppering this obs thread with 'umimpressive' laments? What? do we have to have winter storm Mike Tyson punch us in the face with his giant snow fist - 'course, I've been kind of wondering about official office competency everywhere in western industrial civilities as of late but that's another rant. Anyway, I think this has turned into a meso salad - when that happens, the haves own 90% of the wealth and the rest work in their factories.

I mean just being sorta whimsical but it's really kind of unfair? There are other storms of lore that did not require the kind of colonoscopy this thing apparently needed. And still ... it seems no one sniffed ( no pun intended ) out what may have been coup de gras factor: low level cold inhibition/BL resistance. I did not hear one AFD, not one TV met, nor read a post before hand where a single soul ( if you're out there ..with all due respects) warned that the reason the GFS was pearling out and stressing the low pressure structures so much, would be because of a sneaky arctic boundary displacing S of the south coast ... laying in an impenetrable wal - I can honestly say, I did not see that. I just assumed like ( apparently) everyone that this was chasing convection. The funny thing is...when I awoke this morning, the low was ( like I said) close to 38/72 something like that...and there was no convection anywhere around it... So, no it didn't chase shit - that's not what was going to happen and that was a poor model interpretation - I now feel strongly about. Not just me - everyone. So two ours later, the low's position leaped some 150 M ENE .. chasing convection that was not there to chase. No, that's it getting ground along the denser air mass interface is what that is. At the end of this...I will have clocked ...mm 10" ? I'm around 6 now, and it's milky out of window. Poor accumulation rates... We're pushing talcum powder around in 40 mph gusts. 16 F. I'd call it 1/4 mi vis, with about half that because of actual falling snow, and the other is cryo-dust. But 10" is a respectable snow storm. We just gotta allow ourselves to deflate from the loftier expectations, a resentful journey I know... But we'll eventually see that this was a successful and significant event anyway. And there's the IMBY shit too. I mean someone in the SE proobably has a more inspired sentiment. Remember when we joked the other day? - watch this break records, thus be historic, yet be utterly uninspired - who do we flip bird to LOL

This cyclone event is unusually tilted backward from surface to mid levels ... That much is clearly exposed by balancing satellite and radar trends, against the current position of the surface low ...close to 40N/68W as of 1636Z (11:36 am). Also...as Will ( thank you ) posted soundings from KISP indicating the 500 mb wind is SSE ... west of that surface low, this thing is like one of those sloped tornadoes in the plains. Anyway... it's not a analog of that; just a metaphor. But you can sustain lift at all scales through a vertically stressed column as these kinds of small scale event (and today ) demonstrate. It's not normally how these works..some tilt yeah. But I suspect this is pushing this about as far as it really can - or one wonders... The other aspect I noticed ..I wonder if we've all neglected the age old rule about BL resistance when it comes to low pressure tracking. I think I see what happened ( or suspect as such ..). When we go back several surface analysis, we find that an arctic front passed S of the south coast prior to dawn. The low at that time was still around 71W/37 or so N ( or close to that - I didn't take precise look). Then, two hours later, ...there was an apparent center jump ENE pretty much parallel to the arctic front. Now as said, it's 40N by 67 W It's nasty outside... It's not inundating like those western solutions. The NAM has a bit of a NW bias with west Atlantic cyclone tracking of coastal storms. The 700 mb and 500 mb surfaces are clear, per radar and satellite, very displaced west of that WPC sfc analysis. These features in a less BL viscosity would like have pulled the surface center in tighter - - this was never destined to capture and stack, not given these now-cast observations. I mean with all this intense cold air flooding seaward, and that arctic undercut. This we're getting, it is a mid level snows storm falling through an arctic blast. I don't think I heard or read any statements related to this factor obtruding the low levels and (possibly causing ...) the surface low to displace so far SE as abruptly as it did right around 13Z ...seems that it "bumped" for lack of better word, off the arctic wall

That's all that's left of the big early Feb warm up we saw 10 days ago, huh - Fast flow hemisphere: it can also give back in that sense ( maybe)

well ..that's what I had in mind when I said D6 ... there's a wave of low presser involved that passes either NW, over head, or underneath ( tho less likely the latter) around that day, but ..yeah, if the colder solutions were to pan out than the leading boundary would likely end up suppressing south of the PIT-BOS line, and that enters a question of overrunning/mix .. ice from NW to SE, out ahead of any such wave of low pressure. It's a messy look, I'll give you that. It's hard to pin point this last coastal storm? Try pinning down an icer from this range. pretty much can't be done. Only trend recognition

Why... 'cause he's a baseball celebrity? This culture's annoying sometimes -

I wonder if this is maxing now... Oh, it'll be a fun exit and take hours to do so - no worries. But rad and sat depictions on whole are not improving nor decaying, sort of static ... it may have reached it's potency. Stars 2 am? ... there's going to be some brutal wind chills outside tonight. Like -15-like C with winds gusting still maxing 25mph

This is the time range personally watching.. The aspect for D6/ overrunning is real. It's been trending E across the nation spanning 3.5 ( ~) run cycles across all guidance/means - obviously folks are onto to that so no need. But I'm interested in what happens after that - mentioned so at the end of the Jan thread ... D8-12 still looks so

It's actually been in trouble for 4 day worth or hemispheric trends .. .but, heh - right?

This is interesting ... WPC just did a new sfc plot/analysis and relocated the low due E of their previous fix some 200 mi - what? Suddely the GFS is the right model - yeah...right. there we go I guess

Mm, this is starting to smell like a now-cast over-achiever, relative to the late model guidance shirking and pulling E solutions that is. ( not yelling at anyway lol...just sayn') granted the euro came back a bit at 18z yesterday. I haven't frankly seen any modeling since the early 00Z's and those were skim over looks... Now-casting is worth it on this bitch. But even the Euro was guilty of the dual node low, stressed cyclonic coherence scheme on a couple of runs - proverbial pin pricks in the glory balloon. Just when we almost had art ... Sometimes I wonder if there's a troll-mole planted in modeling sciences haha. But yeah..we've been onto the Meteorological oddity as not supporting the GFS - like solutions. Heh, it's one thing to cook up a bad idea once or twice along a storms story line, but to be adamantly unwavering and insistent even at 12 hrs ahead??!! That's a HUGE indictment - I'm sorry. We should note there have been hints of stalls.. moves toward doing so in the guidance from a couple days back, it was at least hinted. Looking at the well centralized deepening low due S of the eastern tip of L.I., and going forward through the synoptics.. I feel there is at least some chance these jet field could back some. There's always a bit of uncertainty when closing lows. We'll see if that happens.. It's a learning op on how cyclogenesis accuracy in proficiency ( and position and stressing evince problems ...), is critical piece to models getting things right. There are dynamic height falls associated to the low formation and the cloud/precipitation mechanics releasing rising air inducing height falls that feedback on trough structure, as the main S/W axis is nearing. Those feed-backs combined with and that is where the axis of the cut takes place... The models were showing the cut at 500 mb, ...way west of a low escaping east, and a 700 mb in between elevation low, skewed west. I mean you can "tilt" these aspect some .. we see that. But this was stressing believability to me. I said yesterday I wasn't buying it - I was resolute in being okay if proven wrong. Cool man. Bring it on. So we'll see where this goes..

Back on pg 8 of this thread as I supple from a cozy cup of coffee with a side of hotdogs. Beautiful storm on satellite... HUGE being if perhaps the most distinguishing aspect. wow - Snap comparison: The GFS from 00z is/was biased east, comparing to the ~ 12z sfc analysis by WPC; the 1042 Z analysis ( 6:42 am: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif ) to be precise.. The GFS appears to be seaward biased by a considerable margin with its 12 hour position. The former ( time sensy..) is clearly showing a well formed, and perhaps most important aspect of all, NO F'ING DUAL BULLSHIT LOWS.... , stressing the lower/sfc cyclonic structure. Now, ..that does not account for the 1:18 hours between the time of that analysis, and the 12z model depiction found here, https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022012900&fh=12 ...but we're only talking a 1 hour and 18 minute offset. The is moving N by NNE, just west of the 70 longitude, and it appears this error between it, and the subsequent GFS recent runs of obsessing stretching and dual/triple lows ... are destined to grow ... as reality slowly sinks the Samurai sword into the heart of the assholes that developed the Good For Shit model! Sorry...need to vent. More objectively... not declaring so...just a suspicion based on these present evidence - also knowing Meteorologically what is happening to drive this thing along.

Lol Nah no drinking over this way. I didn’t edit that it might may be my phone doing some interpretive assistance

You can see this thing explosively developing already …wow judging by radar it’s west of guidance? But I’m not really sure I didn’t actually measure this point to point over this early part of the game. I just get that feeling looking at these echoes moving parallel to the Va Caped not northeast like the GFS … Probably should move over to the Now cast thread Also the euro came west at 18 Z pretty much gives us a beast blizzard to Boston musta been posted. talking big wind gusts and 20 to 28 inches of snow… It’s hard to say down by NYC maybe half that much. Like I said I wasn’t buying any of those runs earlier in the day I don’t know if that means it’s going to reconsolidate into the love of our lives and all that jazz but I don’t think it’s Diana Roma possibility that those were red herring model runs. We’ll see. Could’ve been a uniquely prone error for effective sensitivity and all the models were guilty of it but it’s really really difficult to actually believe that, I admit that

Well thank you but .. I didn't really say 'algorithms' haha. Okay though - I simpler terms,..the models' convection parameters might be to "too smart for their own good". They're sensitive, and the region astride the EC is a powderkeg at rest state ... pretty much at all times. It may ( metaphorically) overwhelm the models, such that they get carried away - faux convection. This is an area of physics that is a little different that tracking a S/W, and propagating them through a field. All the models can really do is set up instability - budgeting where convection fires gets down closer to chaos. They can't really predict that, and the convection we have been seeing, what they are using to developing the dual/triple lows, may not exist in reality... I mean there will be convection out there, but the models are creating it, and relying on the created mass to direct their results...