Typhoon Tip

Um... okay - we can go with that I guess lol

GGEM ideally would be a little closer... The frontogen would clip HFD -BOS that way, and then CCB mechanics plugging the undercarriage super-imposing the UVM lift, would be double trouble HUGE fall rates of whatever is falling...But as is, the the former appears too far SE. But, you know ... get real, right? I mean, it's so powerful the CCB stuff is good for 15+ in that region anyway. I know we have zealots that feel betrayed at 15+" in a wind so violent it's a milky miasma out side, but to me that is a memorable journey.

Wait! you did that too? omh ..hahahahaha Dude, my entire 9th grade math notebook was hand drawn weather charts, sequencing over three days, the evolution of completely unrealistic fantasy storm evolutions... I mean, I had one sequence where NYC-PWM got a 1,000" over a month of the same storm that kept forming new waves W of Bermuda, that calved NW and "re-bombed" the same Georg01ian storm... Man, that got me through some of the most grueling Quadratic sermons droned. I actually got more sophisticated by sophomore year, and they would tamer more realistic bombs but .. but still straining credibility of course - I mean it's got to at least push convention. I was like Ralph Phillips the weather dreamer

Semantics but.. shouldn't scale/size matter for those definitions? I mean, the "E" and the "C" stand for East and Coast. If this stalls and donut stuffs Boston for 30" and NYC for 2" ...is that a HECS?

That was April 1997

Agreed ..that is extrapolating more Euro-esque imho

That's what I'm noticing most over night about modeling ... For the general reader hot take ... First, wrt the operational versions: yeah, they're ranging between frustrating to glory-ahs. I suspect more of that behavior is normal for D5.5 than it seems the expectation knows. Yet, large systems tend to signify earlier in guidance - it is almost as though we are getting a handicapped version of this latter phenomenon. Just as conjecture, it seems as though these souped up party versions are "too much" so, tuned to pick up aspects, many of which are unnecessary and fractal the processing... Supposition, but as such they blow out bad continuity. Anyway, so what I noticed over night is that regardless of whether a given ens mean went east en masse, or west, however much, the spreads are always smearing like that above. I also have a hypothesis about that 'en masse movement' thing. When it does that, that strikes me more as less having to do with specific member perturbation, and more to do with data going into grid population - because all members are ( obviously you/we know this...) not propagating this crap from a initial vacuum of information. They all get the same milk; they're all going to spit it out if started to sour - so to speak. I tried to spend popsicle headache time early this morning ...tracing the S/W material back in time among the Euro, GFS and GGEM... They are all puking a crucial mechanical pieces out of that morass train-wreck sub-synoptic vorticities aggregating what looks like bursting open SPV over the NE Pacific ... Huge gambles on that stuff...beginning 24 to 36 hour from last night's 00z initialization (so that's tonight onward). Many have expressed this as a 'possible' Wednesday for better consensus. There's two intervals for consensus: 00z on the 24th for me began the consensus for getting the f'er to be real ( kind of an important first step, huh - LOL)... maybe we can start to have more confidence in which regions, MA to Maine, get what impacts the extents.

wow, good call for a change heh

Basically over the last 24 to 36 hours worth of GFS runs it has been flopping all over the place.

I wonder if the Euro comes in more stable … cyclone within comparative marginal consistency for positions and pressure depths and so forth. This is the stage of the game where the Euro’s 4-D variable normalization system may come in handy because that’s what it’s designed to do it’s designed to stop irrelevant perturbation from causing increased error out in time. These other guidance seem to be suffering from giga motions

That’s funny because crass in fact means crudely developed and unsophisticated LOL

It’s five days away … five. Expectations may be too high. We’re also saturated with too many model choices half of which are unstable performers. I don’t think I ever remember consistently weather charts being correct at day five 1980s 1990s 2000s or the last decade. confidence is high for a significant storm - If we stop at that, then models are going to nail it; they and the signals that we use all that were very well laid out. It’s gonna take time for this either come together perfectly or come together less than perfectly or whatever it does

We presently have 3/4 mi vis chalk dust

It seems everything else is locked and loaded. It’s just the handling of that southern S/W - very inconsistent model handling with that particular feature. Whether that gets ejected or stays behind is very critical and how this whole thing is going to evolve along ir astride the eastern seaboard. It doesn’t wanna consistently get ejected sometimes yes… sometimes it’s being left behind like in this recent icon run - it all but entirely abandons it which looks weird but who knows…

Oh yeah .. wait 'til-ya see the next name change - keep pushin' LOL

Why would the 18z GFS ... dictate anything though - it was a continuity break. c'mon man... Well, maybe there are those that don't know this but continuity disruption, with no prior support, is typically tossed until support is introduced. That's 101

Yeah there's no question ..this GFS run slipped the phase with the southern stream; immediately it translates to later bloom - removing also the MA from contention while doing so, and rending most impact to eastern NE at less so, too. Noticing off the bat a signficant structural change between Hawaii and California/west coast, causing the ridge to re-position W and less amp.. This is allowing the southern aspect to cut back SW farther than previous runs ...that sets the stage for abandoning it when the N stream then amplifies. It's a significant large continuity break so I'd take it with a caution pending further support. ... that wold be my suggestion for now.

Those might be more mutually exclusive charts than at first guess. The majority of that snow might have fallen/cumulative before that point of time, and then the warm layer comes in briefly but erodes away...etc... That low is not going W of Boston imho, and that's the ball game on the warm layer west of the location probably on the next frame or the one right after. In other words, damage done with a later of zr/pl in there.

Yeah totally but from this range I mean it's in play - course.. heh, how 'manageable' is 960 mb low move NW during the day on a retro slug motion. I remember living in Rockport, the old annuls about 1978 were that it was the 2nd tide that was a monster because of a similar motion. That's always stuck to my memory.

WPC: "...Close to the immediate Atlantic coastline, strong winds combined with high astronomical tides may lead to coastal flooding. Please continue to monitor for future updates as this system develops..." This is an under the present scope of awareness, major problem. It's one thing to hat astronomical tide ... but coupling that with surface pressure depths approaching historic proportions, and the real possibility of a brief retro toward the coast near max... this could be headline material -

Again... the Euro may be in the throws of adjustment. It literally just joined the party at 00z last night, being only vaguely in support of any event at all for many cycles prior. Just because it jumps on board.. I mean it's outside it's higher scoring range.

Heh.. wasn't that that storm where the run up had a Euro cycle ( mind you, back before confidence in that model started to get rattled...so everyone had to believe it - right), back in 24" clear to western NJ ... prompting blizzard warnings and SOE statements from the mayor of NYC? 2" .... priceless

mm...someone's under a pivoting 4-6"/hr mega band there ... The frontogen would be pressed to the roof -

Hilarious ... that's actually been the most consistent model, all essence, since it came into range..

That is an early attempting signal for a slow down ... if not stalls ... small loop or 'hesitation' in stride while it maxes and couples with the mid levels.