Typhoon Tip

Noise ... But jesus - if this N/stream modulation were to be real AND the tucking SW boots more east...

Uh, they are a part of the megalopolis, but ... of the whole, they are the lower probability at this point in time. This could continue to evolve sooner was my point..

I have been noticing that too - what's up with that... wow. That' swath could lay in 1-3" from PA-SNE/CNE before anything associated with storm kinematics arrive.

I'm strongly suspecting this is evolving into total Megalopolis concern now that I'm seeing the 'nuances' of the last 3 cycles of the GEFs mean/spread products, and how they are cyclonically improving their circumvallate over the lower/interior M/A region... As of 12z, there are members if 978 mb abeam of the VA Cape, close enough to the coast ( then considering/knowing the ongoing jet coupling aloft at that time ~ 114 hrs) to assume there is an explosive expansion of primitive CCB head snow over ROA-DCA ... destined to PHL-NYC-HFD-BOS-CON-PWM. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the EPS didn't give off the same tenor -

Why do you live is SE anus Massachusetts ?

Heh... none of those members are over land though ...that I can tell in that depiction there anyway- That right there implies some kind of eccentrically intense lateral thermal gradient between Ocean modulated air... A-priori, that typically aligns on from Marblehead to Cambridge to NE RI ...something like that. 36 F wet snow/cat-paw vacillation east, 22-27F within 2 or 4 miles W of the sharp boundary is white miasma

I just happen to remember ... but it came hugely west on over previous cycle ( 00z)...

Obscene! also... a classic signature

You know ...there's hidden gems about that ... It's like, this total synoptic evolution leaves something on the table because of that, YET, we still manage a 970s mb low through the Harbor with implications for 12-20 Metrowest out through the Hills/NW RI back to eastern CT, S NH... This has been the built in theme with this from the get-go, that it just has a ginormous upside -

I looked at the 925 mb thermal layout and it ranges from -2C along the S.Coast shore to -7 SE VT-S NH on average, at 120 hours. With a 1028 to 1032 mb high pearled out N of Maine, and lowering sfc pressure approaching the S.Coast, that is plenty of BL resistance implied by those factors. I'm sure other's have different data sources, and or dissenting opinions, but I don't see that as a limitation ( as of right now of course!) my self. This storm is not 'making it's own cold' good lord. I think we're making shit up as defensive posturing LOL... .hey man, whatever it takes.

Unnnfortunately ..that's too detailed a focal region for this time range. The best one can offer you for an answer is climate, and really the only way to keep you guys snow out there is to have this be more BM/E tracking... helps to also have a fresh cold air supply coming more from the western Maritime of Canada, as opposed to an ENE fetch SE of there.

We're fine ... that storm/lower trop aspect won't go W of the CT R Valley with a trough closing axis that close by... Plus, there is more antecedent BL resistent cold this time - so ...I think folks are flavoring their concerns a bit based upon recency ? It's normal to do that but I ..lol, there's an advantage to be numbed by years of abandonment crisis and reduced at mid age to not giving a shit about anything in reality anymore for that matter... it has an interesting upside of looking at everything dispassionately without bias. No, but it's like timing a basket ball play/ ally 'oop. The whole synoptic manifold is moving E and not stationary, as this is wildly deepening N.. the storm won't go west of said trough axis, and with BL resistance at this range... that's game over for an ALB track. Just sayn'

I mentioned this already this morning but agree here ... There's a physical limitation for how far west the lower troposphere can get in this case. That system last week features a trough axis roughly BUF due S, and the low came up astride that axis, very tucked to that physical boundary ...enabled to do so because there was little resistance in the BL anywhere E of mid- upstate NY and points SE-E. This system's trough arrival situates east of that axis, extending south ... and there is ( not sure if anyone is noticing this...) a tendency to D(PP) N of Maine-Ontario.. That will put the BL resistance the last system didn't have, and it's game over for inland tracks. The only way I change my mind on this aspect ... is if future runs bodily move the entire synoptic manifold, west, repositioning the axis along with it... But, then we'd still have to consider the BL resistance and what kind of mess ..but that's all 'what-if'... The low won't go west of the trough axis - it can't, or it kills the circulation. The only way it can is if the trough closes off, which this does, but not until it is nearing SE areas, and if captures ( btw) we stall for 4 to 6 hours - even in a modestly progressive vestigial character to the flow, can do a quick Fuji rotation in there.

Just now on page 30 but can assume the forwarding are gawk pages at this point ... Ways to go? yup - we know this...just wanna get that out there. Still, I keep coming back to the notion that big atmospheric events have an interesting way of showing up rather early... and fighting through adversity and chaos, they keep reappearing... Finally, all tech concedes and gosh, the thematic arc of this particular event really fits that for me. It could very well be doubting in disbelief along a journey toward a big dawg, trophy caser. Already, it would have to say looking at this myself, if 1/3 of those EPS, and 1/2 of the GEF members ( in other words, the upper tier impactors) were frappe, it would poor a glass of no joke dangerous bomb shake. I don't know if that is going to happen - and wouldn't dream to suggest so at D5 ( haha...holy shit) But it kinda sorta goes with that idea about system persistence above? And no, this is no mere kielbasa George01ian dystopic hot take. That's the implied by that mean. I don't know what the region would do with 20 -30" of snow driven along by 55 mph wind gusts as far inland and the ORH Hills...with 70 mph routine gust over roofs and through the tree canopies of coastal counties, but good luck Can't be hugely confident of a ceiling bomb at this range - so we're just talking here. Realistically, we prooobably shave 20 or 30% and reality just makes it solid success... I'm also thinking that the QPF is indeed creeping back SW down the EC like we mentioned may take place, later last night...As well as some impacts. The 06z GFS and the 00z GGEM ...while not necessarily verbatim buy-in solutions, they do erupt leaf snows down in the interior and of the SE and have moderate for DCA-PHL... wow huh

Super bomb range

there's a possibility this storm could evolve into a dangerous event from DCA to your neck of the woods... The whole way. I don't know if hits on x-y-z KU diddles exactly, but the original look/notion of multi-regional at minimum, mediam and quite possibly major impact from the interior lower M/A all the way up the EC, re-enters the discussion from what I see off the overnight model mass. The 00z and 06z GEFs opened up the cyclonic arc of the W and SW aspects of the run to run consecutive trend to expand the low pressure circumvallate, is telling/ hinting that there is a tendency to slow this m'fer down. It's prelim? not forecasting - That all said, Miller A origin then capture by the N/stream ... is a particularly extreme scenario, which by virtue of origin and hauling excessive theta-e would likely max on QPF layouts... Just where things set now... and stuff to maybe look for in future guidance.

Back here on page 22 - much of this will be redundant so will keep it to bullet points -- very early phase of coalescing a consensus appears to be taking place.. -- ens means held serve. Operational runs moving toward them.. and in some cases ( 06z GFS) pressed W of the envelop. No worries... This situation has a physical limitation where the cyclone can't go W of the trough axis - no Utica route for this one. -- it's still early enough that this is "early consensus" - impetus being...yes it may yet change. -- quick note: GGEM's cluster *so far* wins the early honing prize. However, the whole scope of this has really been a fuzzy emergence by all models, so I would not be inclined to credit the Canadian the whole way. -- GGEM operational 00z starts the dreaded inland hint, as did the 06 GFS, no worries for me. Neither will ultimately end up over Utica like the last event, because the total lower cyclonic curvature cannot track W the trough axis for open waves in the process of closing a central axis near the eastern tip of L.I. ( visual super blend) These recent solutions are essentially pressed ( or nearly so) against that physical boundary. I think if anything...we end up wobbling a track between these ( now) slightly west outliers, and the BM, with many cycles to go. -- As to the Euro, that solution with 946 mb, could end up west, as a sudden correction solution like this could be a trend begin. Nevertheless, that is so massive and so powerful, with so many deep (ridiculous) height falls moving from the Del Marva over SNE, that focusing on QPF would be a big big mistake in my opinion. That is a danger storm for potentially pairing wind damage over eastern zones... But hey, I'm human - couldn't help throwing a detail bone LOL

I think what this model shows, when comparing to the previous several cycles actually… is that we are saddled with volatility with regard to the total handling of this amplitude … This kind of yank back west, albeit only half way, for me indicates more so of variability - I think sampling would help this.

I’m wondering about the tendency for the lead flow structure to be too flat in guidance. The ICON is likely wrong anyway … but the lack of leading curved flow is why/how it uses early convection to gather a low and race it E. The storm before the last had that problem. I think we’re missing some % of wave momentum spilling in; more would torque the exit region of the trough more curved … that would help cap the surplus early convection.

This run has huge glaring issues with convective feedback. It appears to cause premature focus …way removed/ahead of the synoptic forcing. It strips away an early low toward the open Atlantic …stealing away the baroclinicity long before the real trough has any chance. Not sure it’s right … as that word choice would suggest. Ha

Hm .. I think what this is showing ( me ) is that yes, the ridge in the west is becoming more stout/upright in successive means - that's "air" apparent ( n'yuk n'yuk)... And down stream, where that trough nadir is, it's really more about establishing a "correction vector" toward more amplitude - again... where is the f'n operational run. This is mind-boggling at this point, because almost invariably, ... the ensemble mean parrots the operational version - they are typically more so nondispersive they make people physically frustrated. So this is anomalous in general, but anomalous relative to that performance arc.

Part of me keeps visualizing this getting grander ...and sort of growing down the seaboard, as a major up this way becomes more coherent.. like each successive run, brings the QPF back SW... and we get back to the original solutions with this thing. Proving the whole saga is ( same old saga) just model peregrinations. I could see that ... Not forecasting that - yet. But I could see that happening.

I would like to see either: - the Euro send along one big solution ...even if it wants to return to it's weird beedy-eyed obsession to deliberately not create a cyclone out of this, if it did that just once that has value in this. - the GFS return to one of those previous big nuggets ... again, if it wants to go back to sleep for a couple days. Those would be tells - they aren't absolutely necessary, but fact the matter is, neither of those two models are going to bust at 2 days lead as dramatically as they are presently parting company with their ens families. So either the means will go to them, or they will go to the means. The funny thing is, the 12z GGEM is the only operational model that looks the most like it's ens mean at this point. I suppose if this ends up being the storm of the season ( thus far..) we'll have to remember that in post-mortem

Fwiw - the GEPs mean is considerably west of priors at 12z. Like the GEFs, it carries some exotically deep solutions almost nicking the outer arm of Cape... It's very tucked... Also like the GEFs, the deeper members are tend within that NW spread

Sorry ... I was watching NFL ... but the ICON extrapolates to a very deep powerful solution somewhere between the Del Marva and Cape Code. I realize this model is both unproven, but not doing well in pursuit of that evaluation - either - but I'm sure someone's already mentioned.