Typhoon Tip

I did... seriously, I'm a ******** .. well, I am but not of this. This thing's U/A mechanics are superb.. the lows have all been situated too far E of that mid level forcing. That can happen, but I am noticing a definitive trend to keep the 700 to 300 mechanical structures at longitude/latitude scaffolds, while successive runs fight to inch the lows west to meet. I don't think this is done trending either, though dramatic shifts may be a thing of the past. This can afford to bomb closer, and if/when it does, those feedback height falls from that processes will encourage the collocation of the mid level features, and all this ends up correcting to ACK in my mind. That's just farmer Met John's hot take, but it is where my visualization resolves this for the time being. I don't see this modulating enough to change that perspective, so it could just be wrong. Just sayn'

yup ...I wonder if that's also robbing it from being deeper. It's just got incredible deep layer jet structural mechanics... 980 ...um. Don't get me wrong, that's nice and deep and all. But it seems this 'higher upside' aspect that this has had, really all along ... , is leaving something out on the table. So did the NAM for that matter, as that weird dual low aspect sort of pinches off maybe 20% QPF from getting back W

They're all doing that, as performance relates to this particular enigma. I'm not sure what is real vs fantasy anymore. Those with varying wit as to how to interpret /categorize and analyze these models, are actually in a form of information overload. There's no way to analyze all that is available from just one model, in just 6 hours, before the same buffet's served all over again ...Yet there's like some 8 or 12 sources. Yet, every little "tick" ...as the vernacular comes to call them, triggers these response explosions, the thread increases page numbers by 4 or 5 inside of 1/2 hr. The problem is, there is hyper sensitivity and focus that's beyond the performance of any model really. So the disconnect seems to be where fantastic "expectations" are in a disconnect from reality. These models were not going to show 18" every run, for 7 days... People say they know that... then go along and behave manic anyway - I think showing 20" every cycle, even at 2 or 3 days lead, when there are run 4 times day, isn't likely to happen.

pretty much perfection - you can't really 'expect' the models to better draft out an illustration - if you do... you really are in psychosis for expectations...

Also depends on what metric we're focused upon when making that distinction in post-storm-mortem. Obviously to this group/social mediasphere of contributors, there's bit of a focus-bias wrt to snow. But like you say, capture and location, lenth of time, and at what time along the gestation of the event, are problematic for much more than snow. Grid concerns, tidal flooding, and even straight up wind damage ( more coast and SE zones), add to that 'historic' framework. I'm just trying to be more broadly inclusive. The tide Saturday night should be astro lower, but still high, without a storm... Tough arithmetic, when sig wave hgt guidance has routine 30 footers, what ...10 miles off Harbor entries... I would not want to be a master or super of any marina from PWM to NJ Saturday night, with a 968 mb low temporarily stalled, or even retro ... That's the other thing, if the capture/stall stuff gets more proficient, it may actually manifest as a loop, send additional momentum that way. We could end up with CF problem that ranks, with significant grid problems SE of ASH-ORH (~), and only 15" ... It's still probably arguable as a historic event. Also, these pressure depths being put out... if this really gets down 963 or whatever... I can't find a Nor'easter type coastal of this nature, that deep. Lol, watch this break records and be forgettable.

Where was the UKM position ?

I’ve bitched about this before but situation like this really underscores my complaint… Why did they discontinue the model diagnostic division- … now would be a good time to see if there were data ingest/ initialization issues.

And yet it somehow routinely scores highly. - bizarre

Yeah edited that.

What a mind f*!k I mean it’s not just funny… When you get into 20 inches of snow and 50 mile an hour wind gusts and Ts the teens you got to get that shit right. That’s the difference between like the UKM the GGEM and the EURO versus the GFS. Shit even the icon is west. And we’re going to France approve it they are too!

I have a hunch that the GEFs are going to be west of previous nope.

That’s weird… The whole time I can hear the movie ‘the day after tomorrow’ on the TV in the other room. Just realized. Good omen? lol

And with the upper level low kind of dragging its heels behind it may actually get into that light snow for hours and hours.

Crawls up the arm of the cape over six hours pretty much S+ To S++ the whole time over the eastern half of southern New England, while it’s impossible not to get 50 mph wind gusts. I mean you can’t bum that description because the model is bunning itself. Interesting

Golden Gate Weather I think.

Yeah it’s been pretty stalwart actually. Hasn’t budged. Not sure what to make of that actually. Don’t follow it enough to have that kind of feel for it but for some reason I bother to look at it for this thing and I can say It’s been like this for at least three days - it only goes out 24 hour intervals so we end up in between and all that shit too

Just for the fun of pig piling the GFS even more … 00z JMA is pretty close to flawless

I don’t know how anybody can discern anything out of that finger paint …wtf is that mélange

Euro came 1/3 too 2/5ths back actually.

Someone mentioned a while back about the NAM continuity issues ... haha. Like we expected otherwise but, it literally went from historic, to 0, in one run cycle. No exaggeration. 30" 0" ...yeah, I'd call that a problem with continuity

I was just noticing - my take ... - on this 18z NAM solution ( didn't have a chance to see it prior - ), the reason for this bump east is literally because it is getting bumped east. This isn't because of failed s/stream absorption, but look near Lake Winnip.west of Superior area of S Canada at after 72 hours in this run, and compare it to the same time intervals off the 12z. That is a huge difference in that kicker momentum. It's really obtruding a new n/stream S/W momentum into this. Any more so and the model would have 86'ed our storm altogether. Not sure that new N stream bully is real - have to trace back and see if we can identify where that is coming from. The prior run did have a wave there but it was too week to neg interfere the way this run is just did.

Makes sense .. because by those points along the trajectory of all, the amount of S/stream infusion is already registered, so that only leaves that. But also ... we've seen this many times in the past for waves diving SE through eastern Manitoba like that. Are there are any shadowing issues above there in Canada. How does that work up there - we don't have schmucks stationed in Met huts launching balloons. How is that physically sampled?

Ha ha.. 'magine that? if after all this, we end up with a middling NJ Model low... Ah hell, call the thread a D+ ... "D" for dust off and live for next week's pack assassin pattern. Can't get snow here any more without sore-butt inches LOL now that's climate change

I'm tellin' y'all - it's because of what Will already mentioned re the next 60 hours. Soon as he said the 'southern s/w was being left behind,' I didn't need bother looking at the run - yup, nailed it! When the Euro shed southern stream absorption into the trough, it lost leading S/W ridge roll-out ahead. Almost all the sensitivity in this is really isolate-able to that factor, and which is rooted back to that stream interaction. It's subtle, but HUGELY problematic for solutions farther W. That loss causes the convection sequencing to run out ... It'll let cut loose premature, before the trough arrives, and then race out as it starts pulling this apart. It's been really remarkably identifiable over the last 4 days of model monitoring - when the S stream fails to fuse in we see these types of E solutions, and vice versa.

Well... this will be interesting as the Euro rolls out. Some quick orbital perspectives: -- the Euro has not been as stable as we may think. It's been decent with position. It's not consistent with intensity - this latter aspect is trending shallower. In fact, we're 15 mb less deep now compared to 24 or so hours ago. That gradual decline means the governing aspect/wave mechanics are weakening over time, eventually - this model could break E and join the less proficiently phased GFS, if it gets to teetering with a weaker threshold. -- considering this is D3 at the start, to D4 ( or so) finishing; the average error at the front side of that range ( I think) is 150 to 200 mi. At the end of that range it would open up even more. It would help people's confidence for higher impact if the GFS model, and whichever ... would stop pressing against the eastern side of that range. -- there are arguments in support of either erstwhile solution envelopes. Pending this 12z run, if the Euro more than less holds ... it would be about as cut and dry a model fight as we've seen, and doing so D3/4 is interesting - that's a neat case, particularly for this era of technology. It's not like this is D5+ anymore. -- they could suddenly coalesce on an eastern solution, then, en masse, come back when the wave mechanics start carving S along the eastern flanks of the western ridge later Thursday. Sometimes just doing that, and the intensity adds back.. Anecdotal memory -