Typhoon Tip

So yeah it’s easier to do bigger warm extremes after October because of the nature of Earth seasonality and the sun and all that … Still, I don’t recall ever seeing a D5 product throw out a +22 like the 00z MEX Mind you… These numbers are modulated more more so out in time by climatology so you know you’re getting a high-Fi signal in order to overcoming climate and still push that number that high. That was always a conventional wisdom. I don’t know if the MOS is still “complicated” that way. Either way … it is what is. Meanwhile the Nam is utterly clueless about what’s going on here; definitely exposes that model as not having the proper heating parameters in the boundary layer which maybe integrates into its fucked upness overall. Regardless…. It really should be parameterize properly regardless of the time of the year. 60 at BED on Saturday. Okay … anyway the max 74 on Sunday for both Fitchburg and Bedford sorry Nashua… probably flirts with 80 ..81 provided the models right about the other parameters

For the audience that cares to monitor teleconnectors… folks should be aware that a negative EPO bursts lag-time in that direction; it tends to progress into a positive PNA as the natural progression, leaving the EPO more neutralized in the wake. - that’s why repetitive negative EPO oscillation is more effective at getting bitter cold air further south east because that relay becomes largely hemispheric mechanical. Speaking to the idealize models that is …obviously these things have nuances and anomalies in behavior along the way too

first shot at a wintry synoptic event before the 20th ...

Euros starting to catch on to what I was talking about yesterday that I thought the EPO might start trending more east… Just based on experience with the models over the years and other tl;drs

The Gfs model seems to really get like a harmonic feedback that amplifies onto itself over extended time…it’s like watching “galloping Gert” It seems to collect all these smaller perturbations in the atmosphere into gradually increased sizes ..,until it’s aggregated into these giant planetary wave lengths. By D10s just basically tends to an amplitude bias. I recommend that the warm spell which may actually end up fantastically so by the way… between Thursday and next Tuesday is legit. The overnight models en masse really coalesced around that synopsis …offering very little deviation or room for differing possibilities. After that? I wouldn’t trust GFS at all - not that anybody is …

And for what it’s worth … your point is clad. It’s not gonna be 75 to 81 for very long in November … at least until 2064

Yeeah tl;dr wrote about that bias earlier in the day. Tru

This is the standard interpretation lens, regardless. Even holding it against the author when the interpretation inevitably fails to resemble, when in reality said author was in fact remarkable prescient lol Simon and Garfunkel “…a man will hear what he needs to hear, and the rest he will throw away” Ooh just makes you proud to be a member of this species huh

I’ll take a -PNA undercutting a -EPO any day

She inherited her brother’s surgically altered nose

If you want to survive in here… you can’t take it personally. Lol

I don't have any problem assuming warmer than that when looking over these synoptic metrics; the correction vector is pointing up wrt interpolate machine guidance. Ex, this happened prior to the big warmth, Nov 5-11th 2020 - few may recall that week because the region was still in after gawk over that 4-6" Oct 30 snowfall. But we were 76 to 82 ..84 regionally for some 4 or 5 days-worth of that span. I distinctly recall the MEX/ or any bar graphs having trouble seeing it, too. They were 68ing us - but this can probably checked.. don't kill me. heh. I've seen this before though. Climo application to those number sets makes those products questionable. The 500 mb pattern comparison then and now are vaguely similar.

28 to 71 here (so far) delta 43 largest in years. Have seen 39, two 37s and a handful of 34 .. 35s 43

Hm... I think you meant, 'slower' so it can be a Snower' It's a lala fantasy but just for sake of discussion, that would end around miss SNE and clobber Maine most likely there -

Heh

unfortunate aspect about Novie warmth in that particular product is that climatology will destroy it before the numbers hit the output file -

Sorry to keep bring this up but the difference is stunning. 28 at 8 am, 64 at noon. 36 diurnal is impressive enough, but we may get 40 out of this thing. Still 2 hours of an unabated sun to go, that still offers some heat - ... don't worry winter folk, the solar min starts in 9 days. heh.

28 to 61 so far... nuts

wow, 28 to 50 in 3 hours. Not bad... but ORH is 60 f'um one?!! zonk

Ha ha... this is like new inductee night at AA in here sometimes... "Hi, my name is Mike, and I'm a winterholic" "HI Mike, mike mike", over lapping, fading.

mm...I've been noticing the EPO retro thing for a while now. It wasn't very obvious at first. Several paragraphs incoming beyond this point: 10 or so days ( 2 weeks) ago, the extended at the time (ens too) were thrusting the EPO ridge. The operational versions occasionally even began bursting rather aggressively. But then, I noticed that the eastern N/A heights were never receding - in fact...going warmer... That's 'okay' ...I mean the -EPO teleconnector is a bit of a lag correlation here... The only time a -EPO onset directly cools this far down stream in short order, is if we are already IN a favorable L/W construct ( 2015 being the king example of the 'not have to wait' model). But, then ... --> retros began in the guidance over successive runs ... Kept happening, too. Repositioning the ridge toward the western limb of the EPO domain space... Sometimes even opting to have it not even in the EPO region so much, but squarely over the GOA, a configuration that pushes deeper heights through the Rockies and would make all this a moot point, anyway. There is room for hope not based purely on fantasy, however... nested in that complexity - just in case the above does not offer enough popsicle headache as it is... It would be low probability 'white knight' for colder enthusiasts, but is at least non-zero. The GGEM/GEF/EUR ens anomaly products have been an old standard metric for me, for assessing a feel for where the direction the continental temperatures may be heading. It's not just that, but NINAs tend to cool off autumns in Canada (it's after that they f* the year over but we'll cross that bridge, lol). So it seems there are mechanisms in play that fit the climo for ENSO ( which yes...I have a problem with using now, more so than I used to do to CC but... I'd rather not incur the wrath of Ray on NFL Sunday, when we're looking most likely forward to a debacle loss against the loathsome Jets already.) Okay, now that everyone's migraines are sufficiently wound up... all I'm saying is that sometimes the cold loads into the Canadian shield first..even if west initially, then future model trends (yet to manifest at the given point in time) adjust to it - it's kind of a low frequency feedback from continental forcing. The L/W is forced to "split" ... the flow bifurcates somewhere around 100 or 110 west... That sets the table for cold bleeding out across S. Canada - low and behold, the GGEM/Euro are hitting something similar already. Not sure that should be ignored, because there's a pretty loud climate inference/precedence for gradated cold NW against a SE ridge.. Now, that scenario is going to draw one's eyes naturally SE, first ... because we Meteorologist are really finger painting kindergarten artists that think that, "red is pretty!" But, that flow construct seldom lends to warmth ~ ORD-BOS latitudes. Basically, we may be mild to warm, even very warm if aspects break right, over the next 10 days but don't get used to it. If there was no -EPO at all, I'd say we're f* because the ENSO regardless, that -PNA appears to be locked into the Pacific footprint whether that is Nina this or decoupled that aside. The short version of this is that I am a little leery of this "west biased -EPO" aspect not eventually modulating toward an above tendency mid month...

Good thing summer's back's broken though. phew -

28 was the low here. Now, 33 ORH, 1000' up, 42 was the low, now 51 33 51 That is how you invert a sounding... and fake enough cold to enable winter geeks into believing the season's changed when looking at all available guidance and techniques there ... there is no winter ever again!

SAI? what you lost me

I believe the causal-link is in the HC expansion ... The expanding equatorial cell doesn't mean the cell is a stronger circulation eddy - in fact, it is weaker...albeit spread out over a larger integral, the same mass transport... blah blah. But the point being, that weakening is disconnecting the previous systemic triggers that got El Nina/warming ENSO's to ... Probably rooted in planetary sloshing by way of longer term low/secondary frequencies associated to MJO's but that's hypothesis. The expanding HC and weakening momentum is screwing up all that circuitry though. The last warm ENSO failed to register many expected impacts along the climate routes that it typically does... part of this. Also, I suspect it is partly involved in why we have seen many hemispheric circulation modes,...since the aughts ... observably uncouple from the base-line ENSO state during winters.