Typhoon Tip

The MJO completely dissipated despite the GEF/GFS' momentum for days, projecting through the phase 3-6 side of the RMM. It should be noted, the Euro cluster was not ever as robust with that signal - the PDF publications by CPC did not delineate between the Euro vs GFS in their write up last week - since they were discussing the correlative nature of the 3-6 as being La Nina constructively interfering, we can infer from that they were more intrigued by the GFS. oops - MJO is a pattern enhancer. Not a pattern inducer. When it is in a phase that is constructively(destructively) interfering, it augments(attenuates), but does not make the patterns happen. I feel like this concept doesn't get factored in enough but whatever. Anyway, the publication was citing that the MJO being in constructive interference, the La Nina circulation mode would become more coherent over the next two weeks. As of last night, there is no MJO. If that was their plan, ...what now? The La Nina prior to this ... was more uncoupled from the circulation mode ( last 6 weeks of the intra cold season )... What is interesting ... the MJO collapses in the guidance and almost immediately the Euro operational pops the -EPO signature in lock step - not sure that's a coincidence. Meanwhile, the numerical telecons at CPC are all warm and have gotten warmer over night. So directly competing indicators.

The problem the west has in this crisis isn't so much solidarity behind a common motif ...clearly. The problem the west has in handling this, is that this form of artillery backed invasion could wind up being prelude to an absolute scaled event - that renders said solidarity...irrelevant. I hate to quote cinema, but in too many ways, following seems too apropos to me to ignore... It is an exchange between Denzel Washington's character, "Ron Hunter," and "Capt. Ramsey," played by Gene Hackman, in the submarine classic, "Crimson Tide." Eerily, where we are at in this state of affairs: Capt. Ramsey: "War is a continuation of politics by other means." Von Clausewitz. Hunter: I think, sir, that what he was actually trying to say was a little more... Capt. Ramsey: Complicated? [Men Laughing] Hunter: Yes the purpose of war is to serve a political end but the true nature of war is to serve itself. Capt. Ramsey: [laughing] I'm very impressed. In other words, the sailor most likely to win the war is the one most willing to part company with the politicians and ignore everything except the destruction of the enemy. You'd agree with that. Hunter: I'd agree that, um, that's what Clausewitz was trying to say. Capt. Ramsey: But you wouldn't agree with it? Hunter: No, sir, I do not. No, I just think that in the nuclear world the true enemy can't be destroyed. Capt. Ramsey: [chuckling, tapping glass] Attention on deck. Von Clausewitz will now tell us exactly who the real enemy is. [laughing] Capt. Ramsey: Von? [Men Laughing] Hunter: In my humble opinion, in the nuclear world, the true enemy is war itself That is what the west's problem is - that last highlighted Hunterism. This particular enemy of the West may be worse than merely intractable. Then, consider a madman borne a psychotic vengeance for the West, one who's insidious intelligence was entirely created during a Cold War era Soviet Union in a stalemate with the West, by stock-piling Nuclear arsenal? Take that man, and rise him to power, by essentially the same means that all demagogues of history had. There was a veritable political vacuum ... or in the least, vulnerability to ideologue rhetoric by conning manipulators, when the integrity rank and file was left gaping after the Union fell. It is a historical leitmotif since the invention of civilization - which we have to get into Anthropology to understand, humans tend to anarchistic entropy without sensing strength in the hierarchical social structure. That lends to fear, fear lowers judgement - they yearn for a sense of direction to ameliorate the anxiety, in walks the Demon to save the day. Stalin, Edi Amine, ... The Taliban in Afghanistan... they were all agencies of darkness ceasing positions of authority, where they could exert their nefarious influence over a large population, because that population had no sense of direction at the time. This Putin ... it's the modern variant of the Hitler rein. It may not be as repugnant - the specter less gruesome... ahem, so far. But do not delude one's self as to its capabilities to operate only by it's singular impression of right vs wrong, one that has also already played the daunting nuclear ace-of-spade card? With a somber soup-con in the tenor of their warning that unmistakably songs like cornered desperation, 'What's the point of peace if there is no Russia in it,' no less. Needless to say, this is not just dealing with a tyrant in the old sense. This is a post-modern Military delicate situation that may require an artful solution. The Clausewitzian motif is outmoded by the absolute power of God that is prescribed by the atomic fission of elementary cosmology. There is no afterlife via that form of absolution. Meanwhile ... in the poker game of brinkmanship, the ultimate ace of spade is already showing in the flop.

I had a feeling the GFS might do that next weekend. We’re still in the stretch pattern … tending to squish the N-S in lieu of spaghettification in the W-E until the flow slows down …or the seasonal change gets under way, initial late mid range lakes cutters will tend to smear east and (probably) end up colder risks for our latitude.

The -PNA is coherently moving from the CPC telecon numerical concept, into the operational models ... Simultaneously, the GFS is doing what it typically does in early to mid spring... running out and finding any physical means its AI can imagine to ablate the implications of a warm up in a week... ( think this is a funny chain jerking aspect NCEP does to weiner nation) The Euro ...sort of is more, but honestly neither are as warm as these conceptually would support happening: I am a little leery of doubting the mid range ( next weekend ) can't surge more - the "local climate range" hasn't shown any problems doing that ( 10 years..). And this spread above would allow the ambient polar jet to climb above the Chicago -Boston latitude. It doesn't have to. These signals come and go and often enough only partially "fill in" so to speak. So we'll see.

Not being sure if this quote was taken out of a larger context ... redacted, or re-organized for affect. I mean... that may or may not be true - I dunno... I've seen these kind of statement be misrepresentations of what the source was really after, far more often in the modernity of media "ethics" - one simply cannot trust and must assume equivocation. So fwiw - just on a textual island the the 2nd bold logically follows from the first bold. It "sounds" like any proportional response by any sovereignty. They threaten us; we go on combat readiness. The problem is, Putin and his forces did the threatening first - it's funny how the aggressors never quite smell the stench of their own assholes in any conflict. Unfortunately, there is a history that predates their initial aggressive posture prior to this invasion/ Firstly, the 3rd bold comment of RIA Novosti, then tries to integrate nuclear implicitly into all - there's multiple moving parts in that total quote. Whose to say RIA isn't just analogous to our CNN, that "paragon of Journalistic Integrity" hard at work ...? Their assertion may not be the intentions by Poopin ... ( does anyone else just hate the 'sound' that f'kers name? god damn it ) When we get into brinkmanship ... I dunno - maybe there is a cultural bias where Russians don't functionally reserve dialogue at such extreme implicit scales, but that sounds a bit like RIA putting word in Poop's mouth, ... perhaps knowing that "the west" would love to eat that shit up. Dogs of war, the dark one walks the Earth - may as well crack open the scriptures. All that. There's a backstory that goes decades into the past. If one knows their global history since the 1970s - they're getting back at the West for Afghanistan. They lost, in what more than less amounts to their version of Nam in the 1980s, in Afghanistan. It was the physical manifestation of the Cold War era conflict between the U.S. the Soviet Union. They lost when the U.S. conspired with conjoining mid eastern sovereign states ( even Israel was in on it) to pool finances and hard munitions in order to arm the Afghans with RPG's and surface to air ... They prooobably got a bug up their ass about that ( the present Russian power apparatus). To me, that looks a little bit like Germany, as they were treated like the Red Headed step child scapegoat nation as an uneasy resolution component at the end of WWI. They were left in a bit of a political vacuum. History has shown, repeatedly, that when that happens... it doesn't typically end well for the natives... And it definitely didn't for Germany - in walks the Furor. This may be a simple matter of they lose Afghan, so they get even by annexing Ukraine... mm - it's not even to us. But, it kinda sorta would be, if it stopped there. But it won't - not unless you are a dumb f naive moron. ( as an aside, one could argue no one should really be have to be losing this, or annexing that in the first place. We're just talking and accepting, relative to the unavoidable eventuality of Chimps going on raid quests/primates instinctually operating merely at magnificent scales. ) Because when the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s... We treated them still as the pariahs to the world. They lost in Afghan. They pulled out. We did too... well, our support for the natives. In walked the Taliban. Which led ultimately to the rise of 'not apparently enough' Bin Laden, and down the Towers of Babel fell... amazing no one's made that connection yet. I'm being glib and sarcastic here a little - don't take it too seriously. But, Putin and gang, that whole kakistocracy took over in ... mm, not a total political vacuum, but certainly one that would offer very limited resistance to a bully and his thugs stepping willingly into the void.

Seriously ...I'm not trying to be anti-wintry here. You gotta know... since warmth is a fleeting commodity at this time of year, I'd be happy with blue bombs. 'Sides, my internal monologue often muses, 'it can rage in blizzards all it wants, ...July is still coming ' I'm not sure the EPS signal won't come into nearer terms less magnified. In other words, it may be over-amp relative to what actually transpires. I could see the CFS shit working out if the EPS modes arrive weaker, and the R/wave distribution down stream cools 100W ... we start SW releasing early with next weeks 'dirty' warm sector becoming repetitive tendencies at mid month. Between March ~ 10 and May 1st, I don't trust the operational GFS as a personal doctrine, for any late mid to extended range. Since they started ensemble-line churning out new FV's every 9 months starting 7 years ago ...that model's had a propensity in springs of always attempting to take the nearer term diabatic flux of solar/seasonal increases, and absorb it such that it's physics wends its way back to January 20th seemingly no matter what. It'll have no compunctions in wheeling up a 524 dm SPV over JB on May 15th when looking at May 2nt runs. A little snark there...but it really is the last of the guidance's to concede to warm heights in the mid latitudes. Sometimes its right ... but it's always the cooler member.

Well ... for a 'minor' start, the time ranges don't align. March is 30 days ( roughly...) in the first product in that comparison. The latter is 45. "Maybe" there's some big climate-based signal for a dramatic cold in the first half of April that pulls that back... But right - we doubt it. We are out here in shimmering example of disciplined source vetting, with citation, found amid the Internet vitriol ( LOL ) So ... who knows where these charts get lifted and/or how/why they were there, at their sources. They could be taken out of context, where the puller wasn't even bothering to look. OR did... we don't know. They might not even represent the same input parameters therein.. blah b'blah etc... Before even figuring out that morass ... my problem is that I cannot ignore the last 10 years of spring behaviors. They have been inconsistent with climate correlation most years. ENSO warm? didn't matter. ENSO cool. didn't matter. I think an entirely separate phenomenon has been happening to cripple these types of outlooks, ... or at least, impeding. It's caused the atmospheric circulation modes to decouple from the ENSO warm(cool) modes that predated, and coexist in time while that is happening. The frequency of the decoupled states has been increasing in the last 20 ...particularly the last 10 years of observed winter-time hemispheres. The circulation modes are not always going to be all neatly tucked and coupled up. Obviously.. but that's why frequency is key metric.

I was looking at that ... ( EPS ). I would say we are under a Severe Backdoor Watch in effect from late day 6 through day 8, given that EPS scaffold hemisphere during that span. If there is even a subtle NVA perturbation rotating around the SW-S side of that big vortex over the D. Straight, a BD front will cut underneath that. That pattern is designed solely for the drilling gelid wind SW at in the lower troposphere - no other reason... And its nasty too... because it does nothing for anyone. Winter enthusiasts won't get anything for that. Spring enthusiasts are shunted out. Oh, there's probably some petty types that sense a moral victory for having anti -SAD version...And just think, off a snow pack and the nadir SSTs... 33 with no freezing drizzle even. It's getting close to my fantasy time of the year, whence I flee like a Serbian climate refugee to my second home in a different part of the world and don't even check into this pos shit region until mid May, or until such time as I feel it is confident to return.

Maybe helps qualify the experience ... maybe not? But this winter has under performed relative to episodic patterns borne events with higher ceiling potential, that verified less. When that happens ... I suspect that can magnify a person's negative take things. For fun metaphor ... it's like Lucy, Charlie Browning the winter enthusiasts satisfaction. You know, the author of Charlie Brown was just finding a Walt Disney way to exposing the child to the the life lesson of the prick tease bitch

Interesting next 7 days on the operational runs... GFS: basically serves up a 'little critter' that may or may not 'bite,' about once every 3 or so days through D10 actually.. I'm inclined to still suggest we watch Mar 3-5 in there... That's not completely dead, but admittedly less likely for meridion expression. But the GGEM ... ( hate to admit, the ICANT model) have a chance with a clipper redeveloper/NJ model... After that, the GFS absorbs the increasing sun and celestial forcing and goes back to dreams of January right to 384 hours independent of any index mode - typical problem with this new species of GFS technology they started rollin' new FV's with some 6 years ago .. but I digress with snark. The Euro, with it's smoothing tendencies built into the particular guidance ( 4-d blah blah blah) doesn't carry those, but what it does offer is 6 days of below normal temperatures after our present event. So at least through next Friday...this snow has a shot at sticking around. The sun is obviously a huge factor now and getting huger ... but it's still just early enough that a below normal atmosphere with clouds will help the snow enthusiast's cause. But WOW what a change happens abruptly next Saturday morning! Just as is, in this run, that's about as impressive a warm frontal passage you'll ever see... You go from -10C at 850, Friday afternoon, to +10 C Saturday mid morning... d(T) of 20 ... It would be interesting to see that happen, because Saturday afternoon would be light winds and fully sun in March through a sounding that would support 70, over a snow pack. That would be a neat competition.

Awesome ! that's like a snowglobe

This should be the new standardized metric for determining storm significance/ impact scaling. In order for a storm to be significant, this ( bold ) cannot take place.

We've been snowing steadily for the last hour here in Ayer with exquisite champagne aggregates... small and mid sizes, dancing around one another. The visibility ... perhaps 1/2 mi, perhaps another 1/2" has accumulated since the main thrust of the event ended three or so hours ago. 6.5" now

Yeah was just texing with some met buddies about that 'filling in' Might be in part what you and I were discussing earlier - re some lvl growth and so forth. The larger picture hints like the mlv lag up in NY/VT might try to join with that region you're seeing there. we may yet 2-3" this -

Yeah that granular kind of 'less than photogenic' radar product the NWS gives out to the public ( https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOm51bGwsImNlbnRlciI6Wy03Mi4xMzEsNDIuMzE4XSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjh9LCJhbmltYXRpbmciOnRydWUsImJhc2UiOiJzdGFuZGFyZCIsImFydGNjIjpmYWxzZSwiY291bnR5IjpmYWxzZSwiY3dhIjpmYWxzZSwicmZjIjpmYWxzZSwic3RhdGUiOmZhbHNlLCJtZW51Ijp0cnVlLCJzaG9ydEZ1c2VkT25seSI6ZmFsc2UsIm9wYWNpdHkiOnsiYWxlcnRzIjowLjgsImxvY2FsIjowLjYsImxvY2FsU3RhdGlvbnMiOjAuOCwibmF0aW9uYWwiOjAuNn19#/ ) ...HAHAHA... sorry Looks like that activity that Will and I were talking about, where there's a pretty good saturated layer beneath inversion in this end game, and it's filling in with pixie visibility miasma now here in the interior.

Weeklies? In a 'weeklies' we'll be full-on embedded in both the human distinction of spring, but of vaster more importance ... that which is instructed by celestial mechanics. LOL You know ... that whole annoying aspect of the sun gaining altitude along it's zenith? March has the hugest D(solar) variance as we cross the equinox... I'm already seeing seasonal 'flashing' tendencies in the longer range guidance - that's just what I call it when the cold hydrostatic heights tend to abruptly fill, and the coherence of the R-wave ( long wave ) orientation seems to get less. It's really the "bowling season" - which despite winter's paliative end life, can provide the biggest storm one's seen in years. LOL. Excluding the rare scenaro ... I don't have as good an optimistic feel for the mid month period as others. Radiative forcing is likely to creep into modulating these outlooks at some point.

K, so... Ayer ( not too far from town center ) just measured 6" on the button. So, that was a decent eye-ball est...but, I thought that 2 hours ago, so it was probably 5 then. Anyway, rad has this ending now, for the time being... We may fill this back in N of the Pike later in the afternoon is some of the modeling is correct - particularly down at this end of Rt poopie. We did actually ping just a slightly little bit. Though it was more like crumbly mangled aggregates, not merely sleet accompanying a falling snow. ... but right here as it is ending. It's not really distinguishing itself amongst what's fallen. like 90/10 say... We are probably right at the very vanish boundary of that penetration. Fun little system - may be the last the year... I get it that some will come away sort of 'jilted' in the south - not intending to be insensitive to those IMBY's but... Very early post mortem take on this event is that it's greatest QP limitation was the speed in which it moved. Snow primarily N of the Pike ... the consensus for meaningful sleet (> 50%) was better handled by a longer-termed modeling consensus, less any individual runs that may have shown more or less ...Subject to change/open to other insights.

It's really raced through ...wow. I mean we knew that was/could be a limiting factor, but fall rates would need to be pretty huge to get to the 12" end of the range ( speaking for Rt 2 corridor folk or where ever else was all snow). We never pinged once here in Ayer. 21 F. Presently a burst of mod/hvy but looking at rad, this ends to flurry bursts after glow here over the next little while. I was est 6" two hour ago. We had a nice burst around 5 to 7 am where it appears the ballast of this fell. Prior cracked eye out of slumber looked very light out of window. Two dreams later ... eye shot featured exceedingly low visibility during that 2-hr time span. It's been S- between 7 and very recently. We'll probably end up 8.1 or something.

This does not absolve your loutish crass demeanor in this engagement - unfortunately - with the possible exception of those that with mid brow I.Q.s Your POS of turn of phrase is a false equivalence to my calling you out for it. But you obviously wont' take culpability for your own actions in that matter, and your ego doesn't accept what it is you just proved yourself to be. Ignorable

6" here est .. no measure just yet, but using the standard weiner window method. S- at the moment. Radar appears to have a sleet ball N CT to springfield Mass, so the sleet line probably made it to the Pike ( so far). Ptype rad shows the snow is still tucked deep into CT ... must be a very elevate melt layer, which is consistent with a very highly sloped elevated front. I'm skeptical of 'wrap around' idea this evening over NE zones/S NH... Too often I've seen that end up butterscotch glowing skies flurries, *however* this situation may strand a saturated layer under inversion, and that can end up being steady light from those mechanics.

You're being a fantastic asshole ! All I ever said about the UKMET is that people were auto-86ing the solution, with no logic or reasoning behind what was ( clearly..) some knee-jerk neurotic defensiveness. I merely said, 'I'm not sure I see why the UK has to necessarily be wrong' You got pissed, because I touched a nerve. Tough shit! That was impulsive to do so - That's it. Sorry I never avered the model would be right. I even gave a rough percentage of model weighting, said to use 15% UKMET, which was the minority input by a goodly margin. Get a grip. This storm was handled well by the models. I stated multiple times that it would sleet to the Pike - and in fact, that has not even happened yet. Also, people over all are completely judging model performance based upon what's going on out the window IMBY - this is gone back to primitive internet culture circa 2002 BS ... whatever.

My fault

Do you really think that -EPO is all the bluster though? You know I'm beginning to have my doubts. Take this for example ... last night's GGEM and Euro operational runs move a close 540 dm ridge node through the Alaskan sector, between day 2 and day 6. 540 That's what's come of the -EPO that was forecast for this episode back when it was 10 or 12 days in advance, when I recall that being significantly more amplified in the model depiction/vision... Point being, the tendency to over-do that blocking up there seems air apparent, and I am noticing subtle nuances in the GEFs to belay ( also ) the -EPO it has. ...I'm just a little leery of the 'over magnification' thing getting into deterministic territory/ranges as not being as "instructive". The other aspect is more orbital ...we are about to really transform the hemisphere by radiative forcing ( seasonality ). The 00z operational Euro, excluding details..., in principle shows a 'flashing' of the hemisphere, with a pattern break down and sudden warming of 850 mb layout over the Canadian shield. GGEM does too... The GFS doesn't but that model has a ranging speed hard-on in July so ... Anyway, I'm just not as sold on cash-in result from mid March. Obviously, we can get blizzards until May 10th around here. This doesn't preclude the 1997's or 1977s or 1888s... But barring those, I'm not sure the pattern really is 'dependable'

The strength matter there ... The stronger depiction ( right ) would lend to the stronger warm intrusion aloft -

Lol, ...I just caught this ... ha - although, in a way it's entirely right - because the "25th" could certainly included all the missed opportunities, too.