Typhoon Tip

First of the double boundaries has slipped silently passed.. Party over. We were 61 here two hours ago, now 53 with wind shift into the NW. You're obviously by virtue of latitude doing better in terms of cold "recovery" Next boundary is about 200 mi W-N and it's brutal. Goes from 44 Capital District of eastern NY to 14 crossing the border of NY/Can

I don't know how much this is 'sneaking' up on people but Monday? that could be some of the coldest air we've experienced this winter season ...particularly across the N country,...but mid teens down to the Pike at mid day mid Feb intensity full sun is pretty damn spectacular cold. ..just checkin' out the 2 meter Euro and other synoptics -

Yeah ...that 'flattening'/attenuation was observed prior to that 16" er ...I think that happened 4 days aft of the blizzard? Anyway, I mentioned a couple days ago that might happen again, because there were some remarkable similarities to both circumstances, from the distant vantage of - at the time .. - 180 hours out, just as an in situ observation of the operational art show. Since then? This time ...the correction has been slower if at all. In fact, it did correct in the GFS by 100 miles over two runs ..about 2 days ago - that and the previous storm example prompting to me wonder.. .But as usual, the moment I clicked "Submit Reply," it become as though that button may as well read, "Shit On What You Just Typed" - that trend halted and the track/front have been locked ever since. The problem/difference really .. .between that other event and this one, is that prior to that one the PNA was in the process of correcting positive. Every night the EOFs would crunch the telecon and the D8 mean GEF-based curve was ending up more positive than the previously nightly computations. This time, the PNA is going the other way. That difference in the large scale super synoptic manifold sends a correction vector for warmer, not colder, unfortunately for snow packs critically being injured if not on life support already.. So we eat another big chunk today... then we lock whatever's left into diamond-crete through mid week. And in that time, we'll see/test these telecon signals. It might be interesting if one is dorked out and nerd horny enough. ugh - too much even for me to care frankly. I would just say from orbit ...? it looks like the operational renditions, all of them... are ablating the warm signals at least excuse imagined. They keep illustrating depictions in the longer range that fail to extend the eastern mid latitude warm look, limiting the layouts to less than signals are accommodating. It's sort of 'hiding' how warm that could be. I just get the feeling the rest of the month is cooked in New England down to the MA/.. The Lakes cutter might warn snow/ice a stripe from IA-southern MI/lower Ontario, but even there suffers as we see the operational runs start acknowledging the memo. La Nina spring/-PNA ...with an utterly abandoned (AO/NAO) mode(s), ...in a CC-argument that has contributed already to numerous bizarro 70s excursions in recent Febs and Mars dating back a decade or more... No part of that arithmetic should trigger any illusions on where the correction vectors are presently pointed. heh...we'll see.

He might be right ... Frankly, if the Euro is correct with that amount of warm sector push - which I suspect it may be too aggressive but just suppose for a moment ... - no snow pack will survive 64/54 combination of T and DP transported along in sustain 20 mph, gusting to 40 mph winds. In such a scenario, even deep into the cryospheric domains...that would be 48/46 blow torching. We could unseat the Greenland icecap in that No, but even denser "melt resistant" snow packs would deteriorate at a surprisingly fast rate. As an aside - it may be clever, or 'covert' trolling, to 'time' abject observations, when said observation is rooted in plausibility (hence the insult to intelligence). However, unfortunately for the people that are too sensitive, their sensitivity is a very fortunate boon for people that engage in that sort of subversive tactic for their own muse in Schadenfreude. The best thing is to ignore it? That takes maturity and personal integrity - ... not you per se, but it's probably a crop failure to attempt to sow such seeds of advise in the soils of the World Wide Web's stunning achievement in restraint. ... just sayn' Anyway, I think it 'possible' the Euro is too far NW, overall, with it's open wave cyclone track and the the frontal position. Not enough to matter much down here in SNE ...but, up there in mid/N Maine, I could see that boundary correct S over the next 3 days of runs...inch by inch. I'm just not convinced that the Euro doesn't still have a meridian bias beyond D4's ... 50/50 on that. So it's just a well likely that it actually does pin a warm front/stationary front N of Phin to truly and deeply f his snow pack.

Just be aware if not advised ... the synopsis in how/why that warm intrusion occurs maps like a potential wind annoyance. That may not be as pleasant and "napey" as those temperatures look. It's a flat open wave ripping NW as a eastern Lakes cutter, and it will be dragging an unabated warm sector along with it, but ... there is lots of QPF contamination in the various guidance... Could be white noise leaner wind gusts, with misty showers and lots of lower nimbus cloud types. I've actually been wondering if Ohio/ W PA down to KT may have another severe outbreak ( separate curiosity - ) ... We could end with a ribbon-echo squall along the CF when that whole mess rapidly smears out into Maritime shortly after this chart above.

50s yesterday to near 60 today, and an equally handsome whiplash negative air mass tomorrow... That lasts 2 .. 3 days, then, the total depth of the troposphere rolls the cold air mass away with 0 resistance to the cutter. - back into the 50s 60 - 20 - 60 over the next 7 days. occupational hazard: I predict this particular social media's social graces will decay to an insufferably disgruntling state, so inconsolable and hostile that Brain or whomever really owns this thing has no choice but to slam it shutdown for a week...

Man ... Sunday's gonna suck prison balls at shiv point I mean, yeah yeah ...just enjoy today and tomorrow - I got it.. But MET has FIT and ASH 30 F Sunday afternoon...and with clouds tending along the southern skies, that'll be shade mid day gelid hell compared to what it will be like tomorrow. By the way, I did not check MOS 'products leading today - oops. meant to do that... I'm curious how they did in this, because this is just an exquisite set up to bust the MOS too cool.

He's correct .... I do not posses a P.H.D., but this corroborates everything I've read and studied since 15 years ago when I first began taking interest in that area of Meteorology. So take fwiw - I also have a working hypothesis related to the faster than normal base-line geostrophic wind velocities that we've been observing, all over the winter hemispheres of the planet, a phenomenon that began some 20 years ago and has been a leitmotif with only increasing tendencies ever since. I call it "slosh back" in the springs... Basically the way it works: fast flow abandons pretty quickly as March gets under way, due to normal radiative forcing beginning the neutralization of the winter-time gradient... "quickly" in the relative sense, mind you. As that happens, for a brief transient week or two, there is a tendency for warm deposition into upper latitudes, and we see blocking nodes pop off ... This is probably thesis work level stuff, but just spatially from orbit, it is not theoretically impossible.. it just needs the data and calc to demo how passing from high velocity to a nominal one, could cause mid/u/a height response. When the normal PV state ( AO mode) of winter weakens from an abnormally strength state, it may trigger a stronger than normal -AO lapse, albeit transient.

Yeah...I'm not overly impressed with that March signal - outlined a bunch of reasons earlier. A lot of that could be gestational climo norms for Spring. Once it happens that late, by the time the time-lag catch up to doing anything it's too late - April mangles the R-wave layout and the arctic domain loses it's connection with the mid latitudes. Ovah!

Don't think of it as "a heat guy" - .... I think what Brian's trying for in spirit there, is that you will start to feel less uncomfortable at 78 ... then it's 82 ... ..87, etc. eventually 90. Not that I matter - but for me ... 90/48 (maybe 52) with puffy cu offering occasional two minute shade intervals, is rather soothing. Oh, I wouldn't wanna don my running kicks and bang out a 10K in that, no -but... puttsing around the yard and doing chores... or strolling with the lady friend around the landscape, day at the beach.. it's fine. The gestation of life will put you there eventually... It's funny.. I was talking to some kid at the gym that effortlessly cycles through 20 rep chin ups with the fluid motion of an elevator, telling him 'wait 'till ur my age'. He said, "I'll never lose this..." - I just grinned a little. Everyone when they are young, says, "I'll never -" ... but no one since our species crawled out of primordial states died feeling hot. They don't call it the cold shroud for nothing -

ha hahhahaha... I was just thinking that - What really made last year epic was that it started two Xmas' ago.. .with that dragon breath S gale on that holiday... Followed by Memorial Day massacre ... Followed by that 4th of July ordeal that really could only be out played by a species ending extinction event .. .Then, that not being enough, I'm pretty sure that Labor Day was at least half consecrated in rectal plaque - I mean, that lotto winning ( or losing I guess - ) is in and of its self, a 500 year return rate - wow In fact ...fuggit! may as well package this shit show winter up in that same craziness. By the way, even Harvey Leonard thinks this winter has been an extraordinary venture in wasted potential - it's not just affectation. It really did defy odds to in order to be a turd.

Mud turns hard as coal Saturday night. Pretty intense low level temp crash signaled here. Not sure it's a real 'thaw' in the spirit of seasonal escape. ... not even long enough to transience. I bet there's a frozen layer that survives. The signals for warm end to Feb are certainly real, but that could materialize either very much so...or more tepid. The latter version probably doesn't break warm enough to 'keep it thawed out' - it's not slam dunk to ever call a winter over on Feb 11 LOL ... some tantrums I think.

mm hm, that's the way it looks ..but the magnitude is an interesting question for me. One take: the dailies handling, the PNA telecon, is presently not hugely negative coming from the GEF cluster. I'm not sure what the EPS curves look like - are they concerted or dispersive? are they showing a mean that is deeper(shallower) than the GEFs (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif ).. Just for confidence's sake, cross guidance support ..etc. Anyway, the oscillatory behavior coming out of the last several cycles of the operational runs et al that other's are noting, really actually fits a more neutral PNA suggestion. take two: The AO is forecast to be loudly positive, as is the NAO... well into the end of month. So, even modestly negative PNA may end up with a disproportionately N displaced exit latitude of the continental westerlies. That's code for, more eastern ridging, more so than the models are showing at this time. There may be a subtle correction vector to raise eastern heights, in which case, that occurs over time as an emergent property... Yet a third take ... year over year seasonal trend. We've observed some startlingly warm events to 45 N across eastern N/A in recent late winters and early springs. This has taken place pretty much regardless of ENSO this, or polar index tendencies... So there's some sort of causal root that's difficult to ascertain - it could just have been dumb luck that we've had so many of those over the last 10 years. Having said that, it does make one wonder: if we map 'take two' over this local climate signal, what happens then? Actually, superimposing 'take one' over that may hedge warmer yet. Lastly, this is all predicated on the assumption that these telecon spreads are stable outlooks.

Ah ... I dunno 'bout that. 1 .. that is so late in the year, by then it may be too late. There is a time lag of ~ 20-days ( minimum..) before a downwelling warm wave begins to mechanically suppress, subsequently stabilize the PV, which --> -AO. Three weeks past March 11 is already into April? By then, the mid latitude R-wave distribution manifold is already seasonally disrupted too much. That means the polar domain events are decoupled(ing) from the mid latitudes - and the former forcing vector goes with it. I have seen those very late events in the catalogue at CPC, found here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/ ... and the AO's do not respond as coherently as they do when SSWs occurred earlier in the respective seasons. 2 .. even if that is a legit warming event ... is it downward propagating? This question is crucial. If it just bounces around and doesn't demonstrate a downwelling behavior, it's not enough to just exist. This latter aspect is routinely either negated, or not understood. People bandy the SSW's about without doing that determination, too much - not saying that is Mike, but there's not enough there indicating a extrapolation from the onset of that. It's a moot question as to how it effects if it's not doing that behavior if no. 3 .. if the EPS long range for this is anything comparable in performance as the EPS has been in the other scopes of the total planetary system, I'd say the chances of that initial onset of that is iffy at best. I dunno though - maybe it is amAzing just doing this one aspect... All this suggests for me there is a 90% chance that is meaningless.

Agreed.. Not much tolerance for cold my way ... to which snow chances need? Thus, the latter ends up annoying for me as well. That said, I admit to some hypocrisy based in either of two circumstances. The first being, it's an unusual .. call it near or at historic March run, such that the in situ pattern is compensating for seasonal change close to complete proficiency - certainly ...excessively high percentage stoppage. I have never seen that, but March 1956 apparently did that. The second being, a single extraordinary event ... upper bound standard deviation, ... return rate of over a 30+ years. Like 1993... 1888 ... arguably, 1997, probably May 1977. Those are worth the sit through, both educational, exciting, and d-dripping (lol.. making a joke about 'dopamine drip' and addiction to this shit). Anyway, lob one of these at me and I can check back in for a brief stay. The thing about one-and-done March+ bombs and/or assorted rareness, usually within 10 days your shirt sleeves are short again, and actually .. it can be interesting dichotomous affect with open field snow patches at 70 F ... I've seen that only a few times and is also a rare gem. Basically, if the in situ circumstance is significant enough - If the season, by destiny, will not host one of those two circumstances... I'd rather it be 70+ until next mid October. Despite these druthers ... rest assured, whatever happens it will most certainly figure out how to achieve the geometric unlikeliness of getting equal distance from three distinct points amid a perspective plain - essentially ... the ext center away from a circle of joy.

Expecting it. discussed it earlier. Don’t need the weeklies … doesn’t have to happen but wouldn’t surprise me.

Heh, hopefully in CT

hint hint ...I think the suppression idea has merit - I'm not merely bullshitting for fun. We'll see if keeps going, but there are (large systemic synoptic circumstances + trend)/2 = reasons to at least keep that option in mind. If not, it would alter the fact that of those circumstances and reasons - we'll see.

The correction S has begun.... Compare this to the previous fix...that's about 200 mi mash. The next step will be the leading warm frontal suppression as that arm of high pressure N of the St L seaway starts trending .

Meh... that look, at that range, has been all but a permanent fixture on the ens clustered means ever since the hemisphere decoupled from the La Nina model and became a bitter divorce proceeding ...lasting about a month's worth of mid, now into late winter. I mean it could nest an event in there ...but, with other signals now coming into constructive interference with La Nina, it may reconcile differences and have make up sex, giving birth to no more winter. ... Which isn't that far fetched, considering we've sported 80 F in a lot of Feb and Mar going back 7 years of late winter and early springs without those kind of converging signals. Ouch. All I'm saying is take the normal reduction in probability going forward, and slope it a little more badly. Start there, and filter everything through it ..and fortunately for us there won't be any opportunities to use the term blizzard. In fact, right here ... in this moment, I almost hope CC stops that word from every being said again. interesting...

hey ... know what guys ? This 180 hour depiction off the 12z GFS looks remarkably similar to the way the sleet event also looked when it, too, was 7.5 days away... You might recall? Then as we got closer, the GFS tried to argue more snow... but it ended up being a drab rain a 2" sleet fest... Just sayn' ... we may not want to be sold on this thin cutting quite a proficiently as it now looks, because it certainly was negotiable on the last event.

Here's a hotdog post: ... if this days synopsis were to set up and play out a couple months from now...well, maybe sometimes in May, we might be dealing with some thunder - You can tell by hi res vis imagery, lower level SW flow ... and then mid level W-E punching jet over NYS. But yeah... 52 over a snow pack in a broken cloud day on Feb 10 is a sneaky warm day, not doubter

This recent string of it ... it's why I don't engage typically in semantic and or IMBY tinted discussion music when it comes to 'orchestrating' an unbiased accounting of which winter and or storm event(s) within, should rank x-y-z. The one time I try - lighting bolts! hahaha. Also, folks could lighten up a bit, too. Subtleties of nuance in droll humor is gets missed too often for taking this shit too seriously. Yeah yeah. We all got our hot takes man. It's all good while being all bad. Lol. Anyway, the GGEM solution ...ICON for that matter, both are "better" at 500 mb ( NAM perhaps too - ). But one aspect I hate about all of these solutions is the structural orientation of the escape flow at 500 mb along and off the EC, nearing 84 hours .. It is too flat. Not only that, it is fast fast fast... This aspect is a negative interference. I almost feel these 500 mb focuses risk being irrelevant altogether, if that does not start to arc more ridge-lined, with slowing velocities. This was also present - btw - in the modeling, prior to the blizzard in those 3 or 4 days head, too. The GFS was consummately "chasing convection" as it were... But the model was just exposing the negative interference.

Firstly, I do not fit into that ilk of intents and purposes for what I bring this engagement, and never did. But people will have their biases not matter what those are, and to those ... you could just as well say lollypop - they'll hear dog shit. It is what it dealing in an open public thoroughfare like the razor sharp objective fairness of the internet ... Secondly, when I looked over and considered those events, and compared them to other extraordinary events ... Boxing Day and this recent blizzard, they are impressive storms, but their down side regions were larger - the just had more of them. This specific point may be proven otherwise, ...but no one's doing that with empirical data, and I'm too lazy ha.

Straight up English