Typhoon Tip

Well,... the Euro came in okay for a SE/E clip. Seems to be a modest trend toward more there in that guidance. Plus with Will's EPS ... The GEFs faded though, after looking so encouraging on the 00z. I wanna emphasize, this is low confidence as was written. I think the alternative is endless, non-focused meaningless banter and stagnated winter boredom so what the hell - maybe not kill the thread just yet LOL

Echoing what Will was mentioning... We have steady small flakes now accompanying the sleet, falling enough to start lowering the visibility more.. Ayer 30F

OH man ... where have we seen this before - ... Seems to be a recurrent theme here where the western ridge ..sort of bumped slightly west of idealized/climo ... , causes the flow to tend to split as it descends over the Rockies. That's okay, "if" the southern aspect can somewhat get booted E ( I've annotated that question..). But the models are dragging their feet wrt to that. This was an issue leading the blizzard wrt phase proficiency. It would appear similarly circumstantial - albeit a less magnitude version - with this D5. It's really quite similar. If the ridge in the west - I feel - were to amp it would help conduct these features into a better phasing...

Ah.. thanks!

Low but growing confidence? I'll keep this comparatively brief ( yeah right LOL ) as there's been some awareness already. So overnight, the various techniques have begun what think will be an eventual better coalescing around a "pass-time potential." I say that in quotes because for the time being, this doesn't appear to offer much more than what that suggest. A reason to pass the time... heh. But it appears credible enough. I'll be happy to change titling and or commit this to the graveyard, which ever it eventually needs. I'd stress minor to middling affects from this for now. It is noted there are some individual members of the GEFs and GEPs that are situating 970's mb lows across the outer Cape waters. Those, however, appear to be exceptions to a mean that is too torpid by comparison to take them very seriously. It could evolve more... yup - but for now, here are the means (courtesy of Tropical Tidbits): A little deeper philosophy if interested... This period, D5 -12 has been interesting for me since the blizzard because there has been a cross-guidance ensemble tendency to 'relax' the 500 mb non-hydrostatic height medium across the hemisphere's mid latitudes. Typically when this happens and moving the static quo from a cold regime into a relaxed one, that can trigger synoptic events. Today's event is really the leading edge of a cold reload, but for several days we may end up with hydrostatic height gradients, amid a less destructively fast non-hydrostatic medium. As I've also mentioned ... there just been one problem. The operational versions haven't been too keen on delivering S/W mechanics through that domain. Like wasting it...ugh. This has been true among the members of the different ensembles, too. I've been checking, daily. Nada. Then, overnight, this above. I'm aware that the EPS looks like shit there, but that's a substantial improvement over the previous 24-hour fix from the 00z/03 Because the synoptic super structure like the less larger --> short wave interference ( which is inherent to slowing the field ...), then this materializes, that succession of circumstance sort of gives this some room for consideration in my mind. Hints gathering toward a notion and correction vectoring etc.. So, we'll see where it goes. It is D5, and ... operational runs - in theory.. - would become more useful to this soon. The GGEM is the most emphatic of thus far - I know ...I know. But I was looking at the individual GEF members and it is interesting that 2/3rd fo them are more robust than the operational version. Just wild first guess: the marginal aspect of the thermodynamics appear just cool enough to me, that if this gets more robust ... more directly impacts the area, it would likely become a lower ratio snow. Yes I'm aware there a vague signal perhaps materializing toward mid month separate matter.

Nasty out there ... 32 90% PL 10% ZR here in Ayer Delayed transition over colder guidance's timing it would seem - not hugely..though a little. Really just flipped over the last hour. Street whitening with pellets pretty quickly ..car top, hand rails..etc..

Cc is real end discussion

Yeah… I think what the model’s attempting to do is flood the Hudson Valley cold south and then the onset of tuck jet invades Southeast New Hampshire blowing over E Mass/RI. Its situating a quasi-warmer seclusion between the two over Connecticut

I think once we see pressures begin to rise east of the white mountains up there we may see that same affect back east cross southern New Hampshire and northeast Massachusetts

Meh. The winters are getting disrupted, period. Making climate numbers off over producing minor systems that are benefitting from a theta-e bloated ambiance, meanwhile winters leaving huge potential consummately untapped … is a weirdly reduxing behavior and is different. And a random Feb or Mar that didn’t leave as much on the table …? Yay Those are exceptions to the rule and don’t abase the longer term. I can’t allow myself to hide behind climate numbers to avoid admitting an unwanted change - that elides the reality.

I knew you guys were going to jump all over that "impression" with numbers but the numbers lie. The relativity of it is that those winter left a lot on the field - that's more like what I'm remembering. The tough losses have been increased in frequency. I think it's partly because of the fast flow problem that is fact - when commercial airline industry has set most of their air-/land speed records since 2000, etc... Anyway , we are seeing above normal snow fall winters, mostly as a function of increased theta-e loading - no doubt related to climate model predictions to do so, in a warming world. But, the the ways and means in which we are increasing those is more a function of just whenever anything is falling from the sky. In fact, I'd be willing to bet some of the 60 years in his list were few events number years. It's inflating numbers to get big totals in few events, sort of belying the truth of the aggravation in between times. Interesting...

Well ... don't take that as gospel lol - I'm being snarky there a little... In more honest earthly tenor, I'll say that other than that, I don't recall an inspired winter between 2010 and then, nor since. It's an island in a sea of not-so-great winters (to me). An island with a mt Everest, but an isolated deal. Not sure what/how others remember. But that's 12 years with fewer breaks toward inspiring winter weather, as the general tendency.

Haven't seen sounding specifics but that seems like more ZR may result, if the elevated push is more ..yet these BD jets get undersold. hm

KRUT crashed from 39 to 32 and flipped light rain to light snow over the past half hour, and KALB is now around the NW for the last hour, tho their temp/dp have yet to respond. KGFL also N with a 39 to 34 fall over the last half hour. Seems the front slices SW-NE across the Capital District of eastern N - S VT but gets crumbled up and lost in the terrain of N NH to keep Brian from getting cold. KSLK is 21 with snow and ice-fog, nasty. It's comin' ... KCAR was 37 at noon ...now 25 gusting N at 20

I think we may see a sea-saw in correction behavior. Like slow-ish on the frontside, but when those BD ageostrophic kinematics kick in, that may get a kind of ... call it last giggle, not laugh, but it may be colder than 32 stagnating. It's just long years of experience when it's low 20s in RUT-CON-PWM with 30 mph NE wind gusts .. little sarcastic but we'll see.

Yeah... just waiting for the Pac to deliver ANYthing into that D6 to 11 range is stealing one's time of life away. Just won't take advantage of that modest, albeit coherent +PNA expression. It's like 4 consecutive days with no S/W traffic, in a fast hemisphere no less. That's strange - Lord it's hard to click through GFS without one's eyelids getting heavy and fighting off taking a nap. It's like a super-storm of avoidance, in a field of extraordinary potential. Instead, it fills the time with an endless parade of middling cold waves, that do nothing but set the table for the next front. Wondering if this is just part of the same tooth pulling we've suffered for many winters ...really since 2015's February. If it were not for that one 30 day stretch, we'd be working on a multi-decadal piece of shit f-up climate dent

Well... go for a walk... pretty much defines the afternoon out there ... Winds might be more S but whatever -

...and I know it's silly, and even petty annoying for those that hate the thought of winter ending.. But those types of super discrete tedious environmental changes really are the very beginning of seasonal change. I mean ( not directed at you - ) those days don't 'warm' cars or south facing window sills beween Nov 8 and Feb 8, nearly as proficiently as they do on Feb 12 ... It's a noticeable thing. There really is quantifiable increases in watt/m2 that cross a threshold on the 8th, one that is celestial mechanical of Earth's orbit position vs tilt circumstance, caused. But, ...normal seasonal climate lag/momentum is overwhelming... and obviously, smashes that factor at least until May 1 ... as blizzards in springs remind. That is, at least in 1980 climate. It seems in recent decade(s), springs are just as hugely vagarious as autumns have been. I have personally observed three February's where a week hosted 70s and two touched 80 on at least one of those days! March... three or four times too in the last 10 years. And 90s once or twice in Aprils. This, despite the some hefty March snow event reminder years, too. Regardless, probably near equal number of Mays as Octobers, having produced if not a synoptic car-topper, packing pellet CAA virga exploded CU days. That turn of phrase is designed to intimate no discernible bias, the pattern is 'lack of pattern' in itself. I remember in the early 2020 Pandemic, in May, sitting out on back deck of a buddy's house, where is salon wife was cutting our hair. We sat in sweaters doubting the truth of the Pandemic with occasional flurries going by... christ. May - ... Yet, it was in the 70s earlier that February - again. And we've suffered this unusual wide standard deviation latitude in Octobers and Novembers, too. At both seasonal ends, the frequency increase is oh ... 5X's above the previous 200 years of climate signal for SD oscillation that are above ~ 3. Maybe it's just a weird noisy 20 years ... ( yeah right).

There doesn't appear to be an obs thread for this ordeal .. Looking at rad obs the the rain/snow transition appears to be moving ESE across upstate NY, ... about 45 mi W of ALB. But it's been marching steadily so. If the recent hour's progress were to continue, ALB ptype on rad starts cat pawing by noon. But these transition lines can both hesitate and accelerate, as they 'wobble' along their journeys. That looks like a metric for the position of the main frontal boundary, too, as though it were moving steadily along - but the most recent sfc analysis provided by WPC ( 8:44 this last hr) shows it west of this axis by some 70 or mi, so perhaps a sloppy metric to go by. The SFC obs at Ucar aren't loading and I'm too lazy to find another source... Wunder' winds are never going to represent reality, do to site nuance, either.. Anyway, in this situation, where ever the front succeeds, it's not going back the other way - no way! Whatever happens aft the frontal passage, notwithstanding. I think that's the key now-cast focus for the next 18 hours. It 'looks' like the cold is maybe ahead of guidance based on these coarse observation methods. I think what we need is ground truth reports about the sky conditions... If there's a defined NW motion over a given spot, the fronts gone by.

Every time that ridge astride Pacific Canada giga motions to the E, there's liable to be amplitude either settling near Chitown longitude, or emerging given time. Timing those movements takes a little "rhythm" for lack of better word but there is a registry there -

Solar spring begins in 6 days ... less than a week! Yup.. Doesn't mean much of course. It's not really forcing at first, but the perennial solar nadir, which begins on November 8, ends on February 8. From February 8 thru May 8, is the transition. ... May 8 thru August 8 is the max, and then we descend. It's when the acceleration of day-light recovery begins at both ends of the day - I think... I'm not sure if there's more to it than that. Anyway, I've often been relentless made fun of ( entirely understandable ... ) for even mentioning in the past. But, you may notice that a cold sunny day around that day and moving forward, doesn't need the heater on in your car. Or does less... Whether the weather wants to cooperate or not, these celestial mechanics are happening. and it is about that time of year, mid February, where the internal monologue sounds off during a blizzard, 'It can rage all it wants ... July is still coming'

Could be - as in maybe ... - a beginning collapse back SE as it's out ranges get nearer. I have been concerned about this guidance' tendency in the +48 hours to be too far NW with frontal positions and cyclone tracks - just reiterating.. - as plausibly doing so in this overall scenario. not sure.. it's the NAM and it could be giga motions too. Need a couple of more cycles and some help from the GFS ( I'm a little put off by the Euro right now - )

Word! outlined this earlier myself... and no model really is going to 'nail' the lowest 1,000 feet with extraordinary precision wrt floor jets

Snow pack really compressed today ... It was holding its own, more sublimation losses to this point, but it's 45 today and it's mush out there. Probably 6 or 7" compared to 12 two days ago.

It's like a moral victory ? LOL ... I mean, anything by 32.1 F heavy rain. Which even I have to admit, despite by protestation of weather not affecting my moods as such ... drives me a bit to distraction. My hang up with it is that having to leave the house in the normal gestation of daily living, with pelting rain at that temperature ... is a little worse than 33.1 ... Which is a little worse than 34.1 Which is a little worse than NN.1 ...see how that works? At least with ice, it kinda sorta gives something back in terms of entertainment and specter, even if snow is preferred, ...which is a little better than sleet, which is little better than ice... Something like that - But, folks engage in this pass-time for all kinds of needs and reasons. Just a half snark opinion.