Typhoon Tip

Anecdotally and perhaps a telltale sign ... we used to note back in school that these 'fish hook' mid level troughs tend to be nasty

Jokes aside ..the local hemisphere ( at least ..) has been trying to move ( if perhaps transiently) away from that faster characteristic basal flow state. The reason I did not do a thread this morning, is because I am noticing - funny you joked ... - that the runs where that migration is more successful have been resulting in this type of cycle ... 06z also fits..00z mid way. The ones that don't are like the 12z GFS/Euro operationals - but the ens means were telling us those were outliers so I'm not concerned about that particular rendition as it was a bit extreme in violently whiplashing back to fast flow. I'd like to see preferentially fast or slowing because the sensitivity to how this thing effects us appears to be two sources of uncertainty: SE Canadian U/A ...and that progressive vs slowing nature. Those are big moving factors to bet against and seeing as this is 8 days away there's no reason we have to thread it out now. Though admit this thread is getting bogged down -

That JMA model is fun to watch... wow. Actually not altogether too different than the UKMET... and might actually offer a reasonable look at what the UKMET's extrapolation might result ... getting from 168 to 192.

Yeah.. .I'm not sure I buy this continuity break, introducing a bully wave that obtrudes into previous idea and kicks everything - seems the models having trouble with the fast nature of the flow and timing. So which features will avail of that window and settle in...? It's just as likely they revert back to first in the two as the dominant - I mean this is typical for how this works... There is a duple eject through the west and the models yo-yo which wave space to focus upon; seldom do we get both, and usually the first in the series takes the lead, because it's just the ordering ... It was in line so is first to avail of the large scope favorable feed-back. The atmosphere is like that - first come, first serve

that's not a bad look there Jerry, no - That's almost the climate bomb signal there ... not having high pressure N is a value negative. If it did, the extrapolation there would be a fuller capture and probably a 6 or so hour long excessive deepening rate, as that low is moving N...then briefly NW...before a fuji type wobble then moves NE toward NS.

I suggest this is the date we should monitor ..

yeah, how could anyone be encouraged by the trends overnight with that... Interesting, was leaning toward a consensus 2-4" coalescing among the runs. Plus, the NAM having a NW bias in that range - egh. There are still synoptic arguments for more but it gets hard to employ those when the next runs seem to deliberately go out of their way to mash them out of existence. hahaha

way behind this morning ( sorry ..) but that's an interesting comparison. Dec '92 started as rain and ended as powder with temperature in the high teens, spanning the total 24 to 30 hours of the event. Not everyone's accounting of the event is likely to agree, as this took - perhaps - longer to evolve for SE zones, where in fact it may have ended before that level of cold could be reached. That's actually interesting ... I wonder what the last 6 hours of that was like down in Fall River and so forth... Anyway, the day before, giant jungle drop rain propelled by gusting ENE wind, tended to sheet and whack face and nape at angles. I've told story of this event ...won't recount now.. Those drops must have contained very minute frozen content, ..I mean, such a small amount they were just beneath "white rain" Their largeness, combined with the undulatory oddity speedily moving with the wind amid the sky above, to mention the temperature being 39 F ( roughly 2pm ), these were undoubtedly huge aggregates just melted within perhaps 1000K of the ground. You could almost make out snow in the undulate mass, as it was pixelated, if one were to really focus to the point of a ice-scream headache - which ...guess what dork stood at out there in that cold morass and did that ... ? LOL ( George01) j/k George But that night we flipped in Lowell as the story goes, in shock and awe. Somewhere in the mid 30s, circa 8pm there was a flash of lightning .. a couple of them, with their sonic booms causing buzzing in the ceilings, while pulses of white noise buffed the windows of Fox Tower residential Hall. Then, the sky fell.. Rain flip to snow as a wall. It engulfed all at once. It was truly truly a freak display of gradient. 30 sec. Period. Not exaggeration. No hyperbole. In 30 seconds, that wall came across the river in the night, and heavy rain when to 1/4 mi vis, with yet another flash and boom, in 30 seconds. By dawn, 17" had fallen, the top half of which was like 15:1 at 19 F. So I get where you get that notion of it being marginal, but the storm certainly didn't evolve that way in total.

Does this source carry the 500 mb heights and vorticity ??

Prooobably should desist from using adjectives like “monster” for the time being… Even if you say potential in the front of it it doesn’t really convey the best motive operation moving forward… i’d like to see the ensembles tonight before starting a thread which is what I said - it was contingent upon that. But support has certainly grown considerably in the last three days since we started sniffing this out actually if you really wanna get technical we started sniffing it out a week ago that’s never here nor there now… That’s the quick and dirty deterministic approach for now… as far as your question I would say everybody from the interior south east all the way up the coast is preliminarily in the hunt on this one but that by no means speaks to the any kind of specifics as far as impacts. The critical aspect is that the positive PNA may actually be an emerging thing going on as we speak and I’m seeing that the operational runs are trying to bulge western hgts more; prior to that hgts over the Gulf, adjacent Florida and the southwest Atlantic basin are in situ relaxed which means that if there is any digging into the Tennessee valley it’s not gonna get absorbed in very much velocity shearing so we could end up having a fairly deep solution early on down the coast… Stay tuned

Isn't this the thread for Tuesday's coverage ?

Ha! ... yeah, my sense is that we can be reasonably confident in getting systems to occur - but ... y'all are greedy with the cold f'n air up there and need to share. But, that was "contingent on the former" ens means... I'd like to see just a smidge more - at minimum adding to a positive trend and if so overnight... etc. That bulge in the PNA seems to be happening in tandem and that's kinda dangerous.

Caught in a "snow landslide" No escape from reality

LOL... well I'm not part of any Kevin riots on this one... but I thought he said 4-8" over here in this thread. Will was teasin' 'im earlier. Anyway, I'm sticking to modeling trends, education, and a-priori.

By the way ... I haven't been over there yet but I believe there is already a thread for Tues? I suggest that is above the nominal threshold at this point... I feel like that's heading for a 3-6'er I like Pope's earlier comments because they're are frankly correct - the GFS tends to moosh S/stream waves that are attempting to interact with the N/stream curvature, such as that total synoptic evolution out there is... These other guidance bringing a fast moving flat wave up along the clipper's trailing baroclinic field, NW of the GFS "moosh axis" uh...yeah... And, and lapsing UVM over the polar side, with a least weak frontogen tendencies is fine when we see a 300 mb evac exit jet ripping through just NW of here... the so dubbed "QPF queens" may miss that expanse potential of this... 18z GFS probably starts the concession march... There's a limited upside though, as the total mechanical space isn't huge by any means, but it's a matter of conserving more of it along with favorable jet relays. Can someone move this to that thread LOL f!

Pending the 00z cycle EPS, GEFS and GEPS means ... I'll be putting a thread together for 'Emerging significant cyclogenesis centered around Jan 30' Saturday morning. ..unless there are any objections? -contingent on the former. I feel the signal warrants at minimum early risk assessing as the formulation saga we are looking at seems to have a ... pretty large upside for impact extents, to put it nicely. Leave it at that.

It could be a subsume phase scenario ... I see evidence of a strongly evolving lower latitude Miller A/B hybrid... Then, it may get captured by additional mechanics doing what the term suggests... subsuming = settling in and usurping the low as it's own...That's when all hell really breaks lose. Feb 1978 - no not a analog ..just sayin' this Ray - did that. It was an intermediate stream wave ripping through the OV and it merged with a very non-descript wave off the Georgia coast, and then the N/stream nugget bullied in and captured... But, getting waaaaaay ahead of ourselves. It's just that I see all kinds of potential in there. I wouldn't have brought it up this morning if it were not for the 1/3 of the numerical telecon members showing a camel back out there nearing D10 ... That's like, ok ... are we admitting its there finally?

- altho, ...the really neat ones is when the -15 F blows across the Lake, and only modifies it to -3 to 5 above... The air is more like mist snow everywhere and radar just has this cryo-mist/miasma .. I've seen that set up with 1/4 mi vis everywhere, but its rare.

Reminds me of when I was a child in Michigan, watching solid white LE squall walls NE, and dark gray SW ... while occasionally a virga blown open 7,000 ft tall CB smear brought mere flakes to the air from over head. Kalamazoo was always ... alway between the snow bands that looked a lot like that same radar - primitive radar ... 1982. Anway, there would be blizzard warnings in Van Burren and Barry Co, while we mocked flurries. Obviously they're not getting blizzard down there in the SE zones, but it does show how life of LE or OE ... is a game of some win some none by a big distinction.

Mm... I'd say it's 'good' actually ... just sayn'. Cuz it has a pretty obvious cluster bias over the NW envelope, which means the spread is smearing that way.

Well, wait a minute ..hold it hold it hold it. Why are we turning phrases like that over a system that's day 9 ? ... The euro did finally cave on this weekend aspect at D4 which has always been it's better arena: the < D4.5 ... I wonder if some of all this is rabble roused reputation milling, then of course time solidifies it as "fact" I guess it's like in baseball, 'you're only as goods as your last at bat'

Well ... guess we got us a legit storm signaled now LOL... No, but now that all three camps carry the card - that's something. We can let it marinate in the runs. Unless the signal is "one of those," we don't want it perfect as winter storm enthusiasts, this far in advance anyway.. Because, unless it is "one of those," a storm in the D9 range seldom survives model grenades over time, ending up some mangled variation of what was once so appealing ..

zactly! That ( bold ..) is probably why one sees a lot of that effect in alpine video of dim sun backdrop and frontage like slow motion swarming bumblebees. They haven't had time to collide and normalize

This is just a fantastic photo!

Yeah... I don't have any opine farther out in time... In fact, I'm wondering if the Feb is up in the air. I realize the Weeklies threaten another 80 mid month ( "half" snark) ... but the America telecons are split ... and we've seen the Weeklies prove their futility in the past. I think the SSW is dead for now... ugh. It looked promising? it did, but, I've noticed after a week of monitoring the GEFs are can kicking while modulating warming lower... It's like how many correlations have stop working since 2010 ? holy hell -