Typhoon Tip

Yeah... this run of the NAM does little to motivate me - personally.. I mean I've seen this kind of antic from the NAM < 48 hours, where it tosses a turd cycle into the punch-bowl, only to correct a cycle or two later. This run appears to be just a 'slightly' unraveling of the 06z ...and immediately, we see a ... I dunno 20% reduction in the 'awe' top side. In a philosophy that's fine, because the previous solutions were sorta kinda 'off the reservation' relative to climo to an uncomfortable extent. That said, the "upside" aspect of this is still there - so we can't let guard down as to how much this could come back... Side, RGEM...GGEM and Euro ... Wouldn't it be funny if the GFS came in with a 30-bomb clear to HFD - haha

Agreed ... I'm not "sweating" these peregrinated model solutions like this... The situation is sooo sensitive to those convective feedback processes. It's really like it's outside the technological ability of the models to figure that out ahead - almost fractal/chaos ? you know - "if it happens, it happens" When it doesn't, we get 00z NAM-like solutions. When it does, we get GFS. GFS has been wholly and totally committed to pearling lows all along. It's clear that "its" feedback dumbs this from a magnificent to just above medium impact. I dunno -seems this is the deterministic rub with this particular storm - the unknown wildcard. Like we joked before, "we can be 100% that we are going to the casino; what happens there, not so much ...

cool! was thinking we should fire one up - the entry into this is today frankly, with b-leaf snows breaking out all over the OV to PA and entering western zones and overspread; we are likely to get currier&ives light snow under street lamps this evening, ahead of the main show. But it's all really keyed into the same larger synoptic shenanigans - yup

In principle I agree. They "seem" ( I do not intend to impugn NWS with this statement ) to be weighting conservatively; I have not read their AFD so won't speculate on there philosophy for doing so.. But, I believe this system has an above medium potential to verify blizzard from ASH-PVD, and points east. In addition, I also feel ( much to the delight of intents and purpose consensus haha) their snow forecast might be too gradated from E to W across the region of SNE. I don't have a problem with 18-24... but 10" at HFD looks heh - It is too possible that mid and U/A jet coupling, ... blossoms snows farther W than guidance, where there is likely to be > 15:1 ratios - I'm brave though and don't care if I f-up LOL... no seriously, I don't have an reservations about going higher say HFD-EEN. I see a moderate snow field spreading/fanning W -N to perhaps the Capital District, with some modest banding/meso enhancing striations there W of HFD arcing to Brians, and that may last 6 hours at nearing 2"/hr

Once again ..I'm a few pages back this morning... so this may be redundant, just my take: The GFS solutions have never consolidated this system very well. Despite late attempts to finally conceded to a better centered structure/west, beginning perhaps 18z yesterday, the 06z seemed to get stuck to me. It appears to be 'stretching' the system apart as an insistent model cycle after cycle result, and it is effecting it's maxing - example, those multi- nodal cyclonic pearls out there ( which appear dubious to me). Thus, subtracting from the total. It's got a anchor-point low situated back where ( in principle at least ...) the NAM and Euro have their "main" low at 30 hours, but it has perhaps 2 nodes rippling out NE and accelerating away ... one SSE of ACK, and another more discerned due east of Cape Cod at that particular frame. That shearing/smearing NE out there is related to why heavier QPF/ .. placement thereof, can't get farther west. I can't see where to correct that , because it seems like the model is constructing a 700 and 500 mb surfaces to allow that to happen. Contrasting, the NAM and Euro don't do that, as much.. The Euro does some aloft 500 mb weirness, but the NAM is strangely nucleated at 500 mb. Hmm..but, with these mid level attributes, they appear to in turn maintain more consolidate/west lower tropospheric response(s). It seems the convective sequencing and how those can feed back ( not calling this convective feedback, per se) is the new sensitivity in this thing. Prior in the saga, it was 'How would the N and S stream ultimately interact', subtending the western ridge of N/A ..etc... Now, it seems that's settled. But we've relayed one uncertainty into a conflict among these model types as to how complexities inside the system's gearbox will play out. Convective physics can/do vary from one model type to the next, and latent heat budgeting therein may be relate-able in this.

May seem "bunny" of him, but I sat nonplussed at what I was seeing last night.. And now the 06z Euro and 06Z NAM, if anything ... upped matters. It is as though the models are trying to realize, in the short term, the higher than normal 'upside' that's been a part of this thematic arc the whole way. We've been saying that this thing had room to become a juggernaut.

Why not name this storm after him ? I mean it’d just be something that’s native to this sphere. But hold off naming until post storm Mortem … you know, to make sure it doesn’t turn to rain or something on the Cape

I would argue this storm could rival intensity, too... We don't have a 1045 high N of MN with arming into eastern Ontario an over arcing +pp like back whence, ..no. But, that went down to 984 in a higher overall ambient PP... So how do you take it, and put it in this ambient pressure pattern - what is that 970 ... 972, 966? This may very well nadir into the high 950s! against a 1032 mb high. Hmm it's worth discussion. Talking 76 mb of static gradient, with 925 mb winds nearing 80 kts... The wind machine is comparable. Conceptual white board: This is a Miller A capture/subsume by a N/stream short wave... 1978 did that ( different set up leading achieving the same result) but not as coherent as this is (likely ..) destined to perform. Why? This is no mere weak wave E of Georgia getting foisted N. This an obvious theta-e saturated cyclone that goes through that special steroidal treatment. This won't likely stall like 1978...which protracted impact - that may stay '78 as mastery because of that one fact. But also, we get into the whole era-relativism where it was more obsticular to that state of society then ( 'obsticular' ... that seems like it should be world LOL ) but you know what mean. If this thing stalls and manages to get Sunday morning's high tide involved, we're easily in big big trouble down there...

Did you have to snap off the screen shot at preCIsely the moment he put down the bong -

It might matter if “Mets” used those products?

The mechanics of cyclogenesis itself and related rising air motion, also lowers height; it’s not just the approach of the trough from the west. That’s what I was trying to describe earlier regarding feedback mechanisms… It’s one of the reasons why the 12z solution did not reach its upper bound is because of that dual low spread the lift

Agreed… I mentioned the same thing to Scott earlier in the day that it was pretty clear that dual low structure was robbing that run from its upper bounds.

Looks like this 'warm secludes' just east of the Cape ...not an uncommon attribute for upper tier bombogenesis cyclones.

I suspect the Capital District of eastern NYS is the real western "edge" to this one - would not be shocked.. Using the 12z Euro ... which, it's accedemic as most guidance has this below, these are about as close to the idealized jet couplet paradigm for explosive snow shield expansion over/within the cold sectors of winter coastal storms, as you will ever see. This is the 300 mb centered on 48 hours (Sat 12z...). The models are definitely suspect with limiting how far W the snow shield will expand imho - The yellow circle is also the top of the evac channeling for the exit region of a 110 kt 500 mb jet curling around the eastern side and running up N of height falls approaching the M/A. These models should really have at least light to moderate snows expanding over that region of NY ...possibly as the western extent...

Heh ... good luck trying to measure 34" on Cape Cod with sustained 55 mph gusts into the 70s

I did... seriously, I'm a ******** .. well, I am but not of this. This thing's U/A mechanics are superb.. the lows have all been situated too far E of that mid level forcing. That can happen, but I am noticing a definitive trend to keep the 700 to 300 mechanical structures at longitude/latitude scaffolds, while successive runs fight to inch the lows west to meet. I don't think this is done trending either, though dramatic shifts may be a thing of the past. This can afford to bomb closer, and if/when it does, those feedback height falls from that processes will encourage the collocation of the mid level features, and all this ends up correcting to ACK in my mind. That's just farmer Met John's hot take, but it is where my visualization resolves this for the time being. I don't see this modulating enough to change that perspective, so it could just be wrong. Just sayn'

yup ...I wonder if that's also robbing it from being deeper. It's just got incredible deep layer jet structural mechanics... 980 ...um. Don't get me wrong, that's nice and deep and all. But it seems this 'higher upside' aspect that this has had, really all along ... , is leaving something out on the table. So did the NAM for that matter, as that weird dual low aspect sort of pinches off maybe 20% QPF from getting back W

They're all doing that, as performance relates to this particular enigma. I'm not sure what is real vs fantasy anymore. Those with varying wit as to how to interpret /categorize and analyze these models, are actually in a form of information overload. There's no way to analyze all that is available from just one model, in just 6 hours, before the same buffet's served all over again ...Yet there's like some 8 or 12 sources. Yet, every little "tick" ...as the vernacular comes to call them, triggers these response explosions, the thread increases page numbers by 4 or 5 inside of 1/2 hr. The problem is, there is hyper sensitivity and focus that's beyond the performance of any model really. So the disconnect seems to be where fantastic "expectations" are in a disconnect from reality. These models were not going to show 18" every run, for 7 days... People say they know that... then go along and behave manic anyway - I think showing 20" every cycle, even at 2 or 3 days lead, when there are run 4 times day, isn't likely to happen.

pretty much perfection - you can't really 'expect' the models to better draft out an illustration - if you do... you really are in psychosis for expectations...

Also depends on what metric we're focused upon when making that distinction in post-storm-mortem. Obviously to this group/social mediasphere of contributors, there's bit of a focus-bias wrt to snow. But like you say, capture and location, lenth of time, and at what time along the gestation of the event, are problematic for much more than snow. Grid concerns, tidal flooding, and even straight up wind damage ( more coast and SE zones), add to that 'historic' framework. I'm just trying to be more broadly inclusive. The tide Saturday night should be astro lower, but still high, without a storm... Tough arithmetic, when sig wave hgt guidance has routine 30 footers, what ...10 miles off Harbor entries... I would not want to be a master or super of any marina from PWM to NJ Saturday night, with a 968 mb low temporarily stalled, or even retro ... That's the other thing, if the capture/stall stuff gets more proficient, it may actually manifest as a loop, send additional momentum that way. We could end up with CF problem that ranks, with significant grid problems SE of ASH-ORH (~), and only 15" ... It's still probably arguable as a historic event. Also, these pressure depths being put out... if this really gets down 963 or whatever... I can't find a Nor'easter type coastal of this nature, that deep. Lol, watch this break records and be forgettable.

Where was the UKM position ?

I’ve bitched about this before but situation like this really underscores my complaint… Why did they discontinue the model diagnostic division- … now would be a good time to see if there were data ingest/ initialization issues.

And yet it somehow routinely scores highly. - bizarre

Yeah edited that.

What a mind f*!k I mean it’s not just funny… When you get into 20 inches of snow and 50 mile an hour wind gusts and Ts the teens you got to get that shit right. That’s the difference between like the UKM the GGEM and the EURO versus the GFS. Shit even the icon is west. And we’re going to France approve it they are too!